RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trajectory of changes in mobility during walking (i.e., maintenance and recovery) of institutionalized older adults and verify the incidence and risk factors for mobility decline. METHODS: A two-year longitudinal prospective study was conducted with 358 participants aged ≥ 60 years and institutionalized in ten nursing homes in Natal-RN (Brazil). Mobility was assessed using the "walking" item of the Barthel index. Sociodemographic, institution-related, and health-related variables were considered at baseline. Poisson regression was used to build a multiple model. RESULTS: The incidence of mobility decline during walking was 10.6% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 7.4 to 13.8) after 12 months and 37.7% (95% CI = 18.0 to 26.6) after 24 months. Age ≥ 83 years (relative risk = 1.58; 95% CI = 1.24 to 2.02; p < 0.001) and hospitalization (relative risk = 3.16; 95% CI = 1.55 to 6.45; p = 0.002) were predictors of mobility decline. The rate of mobility maintenance was 31.8% after 12 months (95% CI = 31.8 to 42.9) and 23.2% after 24 months (95% CI = 26.8 to 38.5). Also, the rate of recovery was 2.5% (95% CI = 1.0 to 5.0) and 1% (95% CI = 0.2 to 2.6) after 12 and 24 months, respectively. CONCLUSION: The trajectory of mobility during walking of institutionalized older adults in northeastern Brazil was dynamic (i.e., increasing incidence of mobility decline after 24 months) and associated with advanced age and hospitalization. The chances of recovering walking performance are minimal, and maintenance of independent mobility is challenging.