Spatiotemporal trends in COVID-19 vaccine sentiments on a social media platform and correlations with reported vaccine coverage.

Objective: To assess spatiotemporal trends in, and determinants of, the acceptance of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination globally, as expressed on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter). Methods: We collected over 13 million posts on the platform regarding COVID-19 vaccination made between November 2020 and March 2022 in 90 languages. Multilingual deep learning XLM-RoBERTa models annotated all posts using an annotation framework after being fine-tuned on 8125 manually annotated, English-language posts. The annotation results were used to assess spatiotemporal trends in COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and confidence as expressed by platform users in 135 countries and territories. We identified associations between spatiotemporal trends in vaccine acceptance and country-level characteristics and public policies by using univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Findings: A greater proportion of platform users in the World Health Organization's South-East Asia, Eastern Mediterranean and Western Pacific Regions expressed vaccine acceptance than users in the rest of the world. Countries in which a greater proportion of platform users expressed vaccine acceptance had higher COVID-19 vaccine coverage rates. Trust in government was also associated with greater vaccine acceptance. Internationally, vaccine acceptance and confidence declined among platform users as: (i) vaccination eligibility was extended to adolescents; (ii) vaccine supplies became sufficient; (iii) nonpharmaceutical interventions were relaxed; and (iv) global reports on adverse events following vaccination appeared. Conclusion: Social media listening could provide an effective and expeditious means of informing public health policies during pandemics, and could supplement existing public health surveillance approaches in addressing global health issues.

Recent trends in vaccine coverage and confidence: A cause for concern.

Declining trends in vaccine confidence come at a time when routine immunization coverage for children has slumped to a decades-long low. With some of the largest losses in confidence experienced among young adults, this is a concerning trend with the potential for long-term implications. This article reflects on recent research examining the levels and trends of vaccine confidence over time and across the globe, the drivers influencing confidence, and the role of the COVID-19 pandemic in shaping confidence today. Timely examination of the causes and consequences of waning vaccine confidence and critical evaluation of COVID-19 response measures will prove vital in mitigating additional losses in vaccine confidence and uptake while contributing to building resilience in the face of future health crises.

Regional myocardial sympathetic denervation precedes the development of left ventricular systolic dysfunction in chronic Chagas' cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Regional myocardial sympathetic denervation is a conspicuous and early disorder in patients with chronic Chagas' cardiomyopathy (CCC), potentially associated to the progression of myocardial dysfunction OBJECTIVE: To evaluate in a longitudinal study the association between the presence and the progression of regional myocardial sympathetic denervation with the deterioration of global and segmental left ventricular dysfunction in CCC. METHODS: 18 patients with CCC were submitted at initial evaluation and after 5.5 years to rest myocardial scintigraphy with 123Iodo-metaiodobenzylguanidine and 99mTc-sestamibi and to two-dimensional echocardiography to assess myocardial sympathetic denervation, extent of fibrosis, and the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and wall motion abnormalities. RESULTS: In the follow-up evaluation, compared to the initial one, we observed a significant decrease in LVEF (56 ± 11 to 49% ± 12; P = .01) and increased summed defects scores in the myocardial innervation scintigraphy (15 ± 10 to 20 ± 9; P < .01). The presence of regional myocardial sympathetic denervation in ventricular regions of viable non-fibrotic myocardium presented an odds ratio of 4.25 for the development of new wall motion abnormalities (P = .001). CONCLUSION: Regional and global myocardial sympathetic denervation is a progressive derangement in CCC. In addition, the regional denervation is topographically associated with areas of future development of regional systolic dysfunction in patients with CCC.

The potential impact of vaccine passports on inclination to accept COVID-19 vaccinations in the United Kingdom: Evidence from a large cross-sectional survey and modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The UK Government is considering the introduction of vaccine passports for domestic use and to facilitate international travel for UK residents. Although vaccine incentivisation has been cited as a motivating factor for vaccine passports, it is unclear whether vaccine passports are likely to increase inclination to accept a COVID-19 vaccine. METHODS: We conducted a large-scale national survey in the UK of 17,611 adults between 9 and 27 April 2021. Bayesian multilevel regression and poststratification is used to provide unbiased national-level estimates of the impact of the introduction of vaccine passports on inclination to accept COVID-19 vaccines and identify the differential impact of passports on uptake inclination across socio-demographic groups. FINDINGS: We find that a large minority of respondents report that vaccination passports for domestic use (46·5%) or international travel (42·0%) would make them no more or less inclined to accept a COVID-19 vaccine and a sizeable minority of respondents also state that they would 'definitely' accept a COVID-19 vaccine and that vaccine passports would make them more inclined to vaccinate (48·8% for domestic use and 42·9% for international travel). However, we find that the introduction of vaccine passports will likely lower inclination to accept a COVID-19 vaccine once baseline vaccination intent has been adjusted for. This decrease is larger if passports were required for domestic use rather than for facilitating international travel. Being male (OR 0·87, 0·76 to 0·99) and having degree qualifications (OR 0·84, 0·72 to 0·94) is associated with a decreased inclination to vaccinate if passports were required for domestic use (while accounting for baseline vaccination intent), while Christians (OR 1·23, 1·08 to 1·41) have an increased inclination over atheists or agnostics. Change in inclination is strongly connected to stated vaccination intent and will therefore unlikely shift attitudes among Black or Black British respondents, younger age groups, and non-English speakers. INTERPRETATION: Our findings should be interpreted in light of sub-national trends in uptake rates across the UK, as our results suggest that passports may be viewed less positively among socio-demographic groups that cluster in large urban areas. We call for further evidence on the impact of vaccine certification and the potential fallout for routine immunization programmes in both the UK and in wider global settings, especially those with low overall trust in vaccinations. FUNDING: This survey was funded by the Merck Investigator Studies Program (MISP).

Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation on vaccination intent in the UK and USA.

Widespread acceptance of a vaccine for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will be the next major step in fighting the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but achieving high uptake will be a challenge and may be impeded by online misinformation. To inform successful vaccination campaigns, we conducted a randomized controlled trial in the UK and the USA to quantify how exposure to online misinformation around COVID-19 vaccines affects intent to vaccinate to protect oneself or others. Here we show that in both countries-as of September 2020-fewer people would 'definitely' take a vaccine than is likely required for herd immunity, and that, relative to factual information, recent misinformation induced a decline in intent of 6.2 percentage points (95th percentile interval 3.9 to 8.5) in the UK and 6.4 percentage points (95th percentile interval 4.0 to 8.8) in the USA among those who stated that they would definitely accept a vaccine. We also find that some sociodemographic groups are differentially impacted by exposure to misinformation. Finally, we show that scientific-sounding misinformation is more strongly associated with declines in vaccination intent.

Exploratory study of the global intent to accept COVID-19 vaccinations.

Background: As the world begins the rollout of multiple COVID-19 vaccines, pandemic exit strategies hinge on widespread acceptance of these vaccines. In this study, we perform a large-scale global exploratory study to examine the levels of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and explore sociodemographic determinants of acceptance. Methods: Between October 31, 2020 and December 15, 2020, 26,759 individuals were surveyed across 32 countries via nationally representative survey designs. Bayesian methods are used to estimate COVID-19 vaccination acceptance and explore the sociodemographic determinants of uptake, as well as the link between self-reported health and faith in the government's handling of the pandemic and acceptance. Results: Here we show that intent to accept a COVID-19 vaccine is low in Lebanon, France, Croatia, and Serbia and there is population-level polarisation in acceptance in Poland and Pakistan. Averaged across all countries, being male, over 65, having a high level of education, and believing that the government is handling the pandemic well are associated with increased stated acceptance, but there are country-specific deviations. A belief that the government is handling the pandemic well in Brazil and the United States is associated with lower vaccination intent. In the United Kingdom, we find that approval of the first COVID-19 vaccine in December 2020 did not appear to have an impact on the UK's vaccine acceptance, though as rollout has continued into 2021, the UK's uptake exceeds stated intent in large-scale surveys conducted before rollout. Conclusions: Identifying factors that may modulate uptake of novel COVID-19 vaccines can inform effective immunisation programmes and policies. Differential stated intent to accept vaccines between socio-demographic groups may yield insights into the specific causes of low confidence and may suggest and inform targeted communication policies to boost confidence.

[Case fatality rate of COVID-19: absence of epidemiological pattern]. / Letalidad de la COVID-19: ausencia de patrón epidemiológico.

Objective: Analyze a set of indicators to understand the variability of the evolution and impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in a set of selected countries. Method: Ecological study of a group of countries with more than 200 reported cases. Demographic variables, health expenditure variables, and variables about characteristics of health services were included as explanatory variables. and incidence, mortality and fatality rates have been analyzed as response variables. In addition, a relative fatality index has been created. Data are from international organizations. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to estimate the magnitude of the associations. Results: Number of tests and of medical professionals are associated with a higher incidence rate. Mortality and case fatality rate are not associated with demographic, health expenditure, or health services variables. Conclusion: Differences suggest a general underestimation of the magnitude of the epidemic. Improvement of case identification and effectiveness of epidemiological surveillance systems is necessary.

Mapping global trends in vaccine confidence and investigating barriers to vaccine uptake: a large-scale retrospective temporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence of vaccine delays or refusals due to a lack of trust in the importance, safety, or effectiveness of vaccines, alongside persisting access issues. Although immunisation coverage is reported administratively across the world, no similarly robust monitoring system exists for vaccine confidence. In this study, vaccine confidence was mapped across 149 countries between 2015 and 2019. METHODS: In this large-scale retrospective data-driven analysis, we examined global trends in vaccine confidence using data from 290 surveys done between September, 2015, and December, 2019, across 149 countries, and including 284 381 individuals. We used a Bayesian multinomial logit Gaussian process model to produce estimates of public perceptions towards the safety, importance, and effectiveness of vaccines. Associations between vaccine uptake and a large range of putative drivers of uptake, including vaccine confidence, socioeconomic status, and sources of trust, were determined using univariate Bayesian logistic regressions. Gibbs sampling was used for Bayesian model inference, with 95% Bayesian highest posterior density intervals used to capture uncertainty. FINDINGS: Between November, 2015, and December, 2019, we estimate that confidence in the importance, safety, and effectiveness of vaccines fell in Afghanistan, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and South Korea. We found significant increases in respondents strongly disagreeing that vaccines are safe between 2015 and 2019 in six countries: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Serbia. We find signs that confidence has improved between 2018 and 2019 in some EU member states, including Finland, France, Ireland, and Italy, with recent losses detected in Poland. Confidence in the importance of vaccines (rather than in their safety or effectiveness) had the strongest univariate association with vaccine uptake compared with other determinants considered. When a link was found between individuals' religious beliefs and uptake, findings indicated that minority religious groups tended to have lower probabilities of uptake. INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this is the largest study of global vaccine confidence to date, allowing for cross-country comparisons and changes over time. Our findings highlight the importance of regular monitoring to detect emerging trends to prompt interventions to build and sustain vaccine confidence. FUNDING: European Commission, Wellcome, and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

Vaccine confidence plummets in the Philippines following dengue vaccine scare: why it matters to pandemic preparedness.

In November 2017, it was announced that the new dengue vaccine ("Dengvaxia") had risks for those not previously exposed to dengue. While some countries proceeded with adjusting guidance accordingly, the Philippines reacted with outrage and political turmoil with naming and shaming of government officials involved in purchasing the vaccine, as well as scientists involved in the vaccine trials and assessment. The result was broken public trust around the dengue vaccine as well heightened anxiety around vaccines in general. The Vaccine Confidence ProjectTM measured the impact of this crisis, comparing confidence levels in 2015, before the incident, with levels in 2018. The findings reflect a dramatic drop in vaccine confidence from 93% "strongly agreeing" that vaccines are important in 2015 to 32% in 2018. There was a drop in confidence in those strongly agreeing that vaccines are safe from 82% in 2015 to only 21% in 2018; similarly confidence in the effectiveness of vaccines dropped from 82% in 2015 to only 22%. This article highlights the importance of routinely identifying gaps or breakdowns in public confidence in order to rebuild trust, before a pandemic threat, when societal and political cooperation with be key to an effective response.

The severity of ventricular arrhythmia correlates with the extent of myocardial sympathetic denervation, but not with myocardial fibrosis extent in chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy : Chagas disease, denervation and arrhythmia.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the correlation between the extent of myocardial sympathetic denervation and fibrosis and the presence of degrees of severity of ventricular arrhythmias in chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC). METHODS: Forty-three CCC patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≥ 35% were divided into three groups: SVT group-presenting Sustained Ventricular Tachycardia (SVT) (n = 15), NSVT group-exhibiting episodes of non-SVT (NSVT) on 24-h Holter monitoring (n = 11), and Control group-exhibiting neither SVT nor episodes of NSVT (n = 17). The patients underwent SPECT imaging for myocardial sympathetic innervation with 123Iodine-MIBG (MIBG) and myocardial perfusion with 99mTc-Sestamibi (MIBI) for the evaluation of regional myocardial fibrosis. RESULTS: The summed rest perfusion scores were similar in the three groups. The summed difference score between MIBG and MPI images, which evaluated the extent of denervated but viable myocardium, was significantly higher in SVT group (20.0 ± 8.0) as compared with the control group (2.0 ± 5.0, P < .0001) and with the NSVT group (11.0 ± 8.0, P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias of different degrees of severity correlates quantitatively with the extent of cardiac sympathetic denervation, but not with the extent of fibrosis, suggesting that myocardial sympathetic denervation plays a major role in triggering ventricular arrhythmia in CCC.

The State of Vaccine Confidence 2016: Global Insights Through a 67-Country Survey.

BACKGROUND: Public trust in immunization is an increasingly important global health issue. Losses in confidence in vaccines and immunization programmes can lead to vaccine reluctance and refusal, risking disease outbreaks and challenging immunization goals in high- and low-income settings. National and international immunization stakeholders have called for better monitoring of vaccine confidence to identify emerging concerns before they evolve into vaccine confidence crises. METHODS: We perform a large-scale, data-driven study on worldwide attitudes to immunizations. This survey - which we believe represents the largest survey on confidence in immunization to date - examines perceptions of vaccine importance, safety, effectiveness, and religious compatibility among 65,819 individuals across 67 countries. Hierarchical models are employed to probe relationships between individual- and country-level socio-economic factors and vaccine attitudes obtained through the four-question, Likert-scale survey. FINDINGS: Overall sentiment towards vaccinations is positive across all 67 countries, however there is wide variability between countries and across world regions. Vaccine-safety related sentiment is particularly negative in the European region, which has seven of the ten least confident countries, with 41% of respondents in France and 36% of respondents in Bosnia & Herzegovina reporting that they disagree that vaccines are safe (compared to a global average of 13%). The oldest age group (65+) and Roman Catholics (amongst all faiths surveyed) are associated with positive views on vaccine sentiment, while the Western Pacific region reported the highest level of religious incompatibility with vaccines. Countries with high levels of schooling and good access to health services are associated with lower rates of positive sentiment, pointing to an emerging inverse relationship between vaccine sentiments and socio-economic status. CONCLUSIONS: Regular monitoring of vaccine attitudes - coupled with monitoring of local immunization rates - at the national and sub-national levels can identify populations with declining confidence and acceptance. These populations should be prioritized to further investigate the drivers of negative sentiment and to inform appropriate interventions to prevent adverse public health outcomes.

Forecasted trends in vaccination coverage and correlations with socioeconomic factors: a global time-series analysis over 30 years.

BACKGROUND: Incomplete immunisation coverage causes preventable illness and death in both developing and developed countries. Identification of factors that might modulate coverage could inform effective immunisation programmes and policies. We constructed a performance indicator that could quantitatively approximate measures of the susceptibility of immunisation programmes to coverage losses, with an aim to identify correlations between trends in vaccine coverage and socioeconomic factors. METHODS: We undertook a data-driven time-series analysis to examine trends in coverage of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP) vaccination across 190 countries over the past 30 years. We grouped countries into six world regions according to WHO classifications. We used Gaussian process regression to forecast future coverage rates and provide a vaccine performance index: a summary measure of the strength of immunisation coverage in a country. FINDINGS: Overall vaccine coverage increased in all six world regions between 1980 and 2010, with variation in volatility and trends. Our vaccine performance index identified that 53 countries had more than a 50% chance of missing the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) target of 90% worldwide coverage with three doses of DTP (DTP3) by 2015. These countries were mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, but Austria and Ukraine also featured. Factors associated with DTP3 immunisation coverage varied by world region: personal income (Spearman's ρ=0·66, p=0·0011) and government health spending (0·66, p<0·0001) were informative of immunisation coverage in the Eastern Mediterranean between 1980 and 2010, whereas primary school completion was informative of coverage in Africa (0·56, p<0·0001) over the same period. The proportion of births attended by skilled health staff correlated significantly with immunisation coverage across many world regions. INTERPRETATION: Our vaccine performance index highlighted countries at risk of failing to achieve the GVAP target of 90% coverage by 2015, and could aid policy makers' assessments of the strength and resilience of immunisation programmes. Weakening correlations with socioeconomic factors show a need to tackle vaccine confidence, whereas strengthening correlations point to clear factors to address. FUNDING: UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

Universality in ant behaviour.

Prediction for social systems is a major challenge. Universality at the social level has inspired a unified theory for urban living but individual variation makes predicting relationships within societies difficult. Here, we show that in ant societies individual average speed is higher when event duration is longer. Expressed as a single scaling function, this relationship is universal because for any event duration an ant, on average, moves at the corresponding average speed except for a short acceleration and deceleration at the beginning and end. This establishes cause and effect within a social system and may inform engineering and control of artificial ones.

Prediction of left ventricular wall motion recovery after acute myocardial infarction by Tl-201 gated SPECT: incremental value of integrated contractile reserve assessment.

BACKGROUND: This investigation tested the application of low-dose dobutamine (LDD) gated single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) with thallium 201 for myocardial viability detection early after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS AND RESULTS: Thirty-two hemodynamically stable post-AMI patients (aged 55 +/- 5 years [mean +/- SEM]; 20 men) who were exhibiting regional left ventricular dysfunction underwent stress-redistribution Tl-201 scanning within 4 to 8 days, followed by 2 additional gated SPECT acquisitions after Tl-201 reinjection, at rest and during LDD. A visual 5-point score was computed for segmental radiotracer uptake (0, normal; 4, absent) and a 4-point score for left ventricular wall motion (1, normal; 4, dyskinesis). Predominant viable myocardium in dyssynergic regions was predicted by a mean Tl-201 uptake score of 2 or less or ischemic area of 30% or greater. These indices showed a significant association with wall motion improvement in follow-up echocardiographic studies (overall accuracy = 0.69, sensitivity = 0.93, and specificity = 0.50). Regarding the response to LDD stimulus, an increase in mean wall motion score of 30% or greater was predictive of predominant viable myocardium. Contractile reserve assessment yielded a significant increment in the predictive accuracy for function recovery (overall accuracy = 0.84, sensitivity = 0.71, and specificity = 0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of contractile reserve by means of LDD gated SPECT with Tl-201 is safely feasible early after AMI, with incremental value over perfusion assessment alone for myocardial viability detection.