Evaluating social protection mitigation effects on HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis through a mathematical modelling study.

The global economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and worldwide inflation surge may have a profound impact on poverty-related infectious diseases, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this work, we developed mathematical models for HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis (TB) in Brazil, one of the largest and most unequal LMICs, incorporating poverty rates and temporal dynamics to evaluate and forecast the impact of the increase in poverty due to the economic crisis, and estimate the mitigation effects of alternative poverty-reduction policies on the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB up to 2030. Three main intervention scenarios were simulated-an economic crisis followed by the implementation of social protection policies with none, moderate, or strong coverage-evaluating the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB. Without social protection policies to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis, the burden of HIV/AIDS and TB would be significantly larger over the next decade, being responsible in 2030 for an incidence 13% (95% CI 4-31%) and mortality 21% (95% CI 12-34%) higher for HIV/AIDS, and an incidence 16% (95% CI 10-25%) and mortality 22% (95% CI 15-31%) higher for TB, if compared with a scenario of moderate social protection. These differences would be significantly larger if compared with a scenario of strong social protection, resulting in more than 230,000 cases and 34,000 deaths from AIDS and TB averted over the next decade in Brazil. Using a comprehensive approach, that integrated economic forecasting with mathematical and epidemiological models, we were able to show the importance of implementing robust social protection policies to avert a significant increase in incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB during the current global economic downturn.

Current and Projected Mortality and Hospitalization Rates Associated With Conditional Cash Transfer, Social Pension, and Primary Health Care Programs in Brazil, 2000-2030.

Importance: The health outcomes of increased poverty and inequalities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been substantially amplified as a consequence of converging multiple crises. Brazil has some of the world's largest conditional cash transfer (Programa Bolsa Família [PBF]), social pension (Beneficio de Prestacão Continuada [BPC]), and primary health care (Estratégia de Saúde da Família [ESF]) programs that could act as mitigating interventions during the current polycrisis era of increasing poverty, slow or contracting economic growth, and conflicts. Objective: To evaluate the combined association of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer, social pension, and primary health care programs with the reduction of morbidity and mortality over the last 2 decades and forecast their potential mitigation of the current global polycrisis and beyond. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a longitudinal ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models (adjusted for relevant socioeconomic, demographic, and health care variables) integrating the retrospective analysis from 2000 to 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. Participants included a cohort of 2548 Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019, projected from 2020 to 2030. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: PBF coverage of the target population (those who were poorest) was categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). ESF coverage was categorized as null (0), low (0.1%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), and consolidated (70.0%-100%). BPC coverage was categorized by terciles. Main outcomes and measures: Age-standardized, all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates calculated for the entire population and by age group (<5 years, 5-29 years, 30-69 years, and ≥70 years). Results: Among the 2548 Brazilian municipalities studied from 2004 to 2019, the mean (SD) age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 16.64% (from 6.73 [1.14] to 5.61 [0.94] deaths per 1000 population). Consolidated coverages of social welfare programs studied were all associated with reductions in overall mortality rates (PBF: rate ratio [RR], 0.95 [95% CI, 0.94-0.96]; ESF: RR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.93-0.94]; BPC: RR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.91-0.92]), having all together prevented an estimated 1 462 626 (95% CI, 1 332 128-1 596 924) deaths over the period 2004 to 2019. The results were higher on mortality for the group younger than age 5 years (PBF: RR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.85-0.90]; ESF: RR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.87-0.93]; BPC: RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.82-0.86]), on mortality for the group aged 70 years and older, and on hospitalizations. Considering a shorter scenario of economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of PBF, BPC, and ESF to proportionally cover the newly poor and at-risk individuals was projected to avert 1 305 359 (95% CI, 1 163 659-1 449 256) deaths and 6 593 224 (95% CI, 5 534 591-7 651 327) hospitalizations up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity scenarios that would reduce the coverage of these interventions. Conclusions and relevance: This cohort study's results suggest that combined expansion of conditional cash transfers, social pensions, and primary health care should be considered a viable strategy to mitigate the adverse health outcomes of the current global polycrisis in LMICs, whereas the implementation of fiscal austerity measures could result in large numbers of preventable deaths.

Competencies for Transformational Leadership in Public Health-An International Delphi Consensus Study.

Objectives: This Delphi study intended to develop competencies for transformational leadership in public health, including behavioral descriptions (descriptors) tailored to individuals and their contexts. Methods: The study involved five rounds, including online "e-Delphi" consultations and real-time online workshops with experts from diverse sectors. Relevant competencies were identified through a literature review, and experts rated, ranked, rephrased, and proposed descriptors. The study followed the Guidance on Conducting and REporting DElphi Studies (CREDES) and the COmpeteNcy FramEwoRk Development in Health Professions (CONFERD-HP) reporting guidelines. Results: Our framework comprises ten competencies for transformational public health leadership (each with its descriptors) within four categories, and also describes a four-stage model for developing relevant competencies tailored to different contexts. Conclusion: Educators responsible for curriculum design, particularly those aiming to align curricula with local goals, making leadership education context-specific and -sensitive, may benefit from the proposed framework. Additionally, it can help strengthen links between education and workforce sectors, address competency gaps, and potentially reduce the out-migration of graduates in the health professions.

Validation of a method to assess the severity of medication administration errors in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Medication errors are frequent and have high economic and social impacts; however, some medication errors are more likely to result in harm than others. Therefore, it is critical to determine their severity. Various tools exist to measure and classify the harm associated with medication errors; although, few have been validated internationally. METHODS: We validated an existing method for assessing the potential severity of medication administration errors (MAEs) in Brazil. Thirty healthcare professionals (doctors, nurses and pharmacists) from Brazil were invited to score 50 cases of MAEs as in the original UK study, regarding their potential harm to the patient, on a scale from 0 to 10. Sixteen cases with known harmful outcomes were included to assess the validity of the scoring. To assess test-retest reliability, 10 cases (of the 50) were scored twice. Potential sources of variability in scoring were evaluated, including the occasion on which the scores were given, the scorers, their profession and the interactions among these variables. Data were analysed using generalisability theory. A G coefficient of 0.8 or more was considered reliable, and a Bland-Altman analysis was used to assess test-retest reliability. RESULTS: To obtain a generalisability coefficient of 0.8, a minimum of three judges would need to score each case with their mean score used as an indicator of severity. The method also appeared to be valid, as the judges' assessments were largely in line with the outcomes of the 16 cases with known outcomes. The Bland-Altman analysis showed that the distribution was homogeneous above and below the mean difference for doctors, pharmacists and nurses. CONCLUSION: The results of this study demonstrate the reliability and validity of an existing method of scoring the severity of MAEs for use in the Brazilian health system.

Assessing the severity of medication administration errors identified in an observational study using a valid and reliable method.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data on medication errors severity are scarce. The assessment of the prevalence and severity of medication errors may be limited because of several reasons, including a lack of standardization in the method of identifying medication administration errors and little knowledge about the appropriate assessment tools to measure severity. Thus, in this study, we aim to assess the potential severity of errors identified by direct observation in a teaching hospital. METHODS: We used a validated method for assessing the potential severity of medication administration errors. Responses are scored on a 10-point scale. The 203 errors identified in a previous study were organized per similarity, resulting in 67 errors. This list was assessed by a panel of a physician, a nurse, and two pharmacists. The average score for each of the 67 errors was estimated considering the scores given by the 4 judges. Errors with a severity index < 3, between 3 and 7, and > 7 were considered minor, moderate, and severe, respectively. RESULTS: Professionals classified the potential clinical significance of the errors as minor, moderate, and severe in 8.8% (18/203), 82.8% (168/203), and 8.4% (17/203) of the cases, respectively. Most errors considered potentially serious (41%, 7/17) were technical errors. Most potentially serious errors involved insulin. Regarding the administration route, nine (53%) potentially serious errors involved medications administered intravenously. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the errors were considered as potentially moderated by the expert panel; however, the frequency of potentially serious errors was higher than that in previous studies using the same methodology, which highlights the need for strategies to reduce their occurrence.

Evaluation and Forecasting Analysis of the Association of Conditional Cash Transfer With Child Mortality in Latin America, 2000-2030.

Importance: Latin America has implemented the world's largest and most consolidated conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs during the last 2 decades. As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty rates have markedly increased, and a large number of newly low-income individuals, especially children, have been left unprotected. Objective: To evaluate the association of CCT programs with child health in Latin American countries during the last 2 decades and forecast child mortality trends up to 2030 according to CCT alternative implementation options. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a multicountry, longitudinal, ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models, which were adjusted for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health care variables, integrating the retrospective impact evaluations from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. The study cohort included 4882 municipalities from Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico with adequate quality of civil registration and vital statistics according to a validated multidimensional criterion. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: Conditional cash transfer coverage of the target (lowest-income) population categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were mortality rates for those younger than 5 years and hospitalization rates (per 1000 live births), overall and by poverty-related causes (diarrheal, malnutrition, tuberculosis, malaria, lower respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS), and the mortality rates for those younger than 5 years by age groups, namely, neonatal (0-28 days), postneonatal (28 days to 1 year), infant (<1 year), and toddler (1-4 years). Results: The retrospective analysis included 4882 municipalities. During the study period of January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, mortality in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico decreased by 7.8% in children and 6.5% in infants, and an increase in coverage of CCT programs of 76.8% was observed in these Latin American countries. Conditional cash transfer programs were associated with significant reductions of mortality rates in those younger than 5 years (rate ratio [RR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.76), having prevented 738 919 (95% CI, 695 641-782 104) child deaths during this period. The association of highest coverage of CCT programs was stronger with poverty-related diseases, such as malnutrition (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31-0.35), diarrhea (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.40-0.43), lower respiratory tract infections (RR, 0.66, 95% CI, 0.65-0.68), malaria (RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93), tuberculosis (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.48-0.79), and HIV/AIDS (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.28-0.37). Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of CCTs to protect those newly in poverty could reduce the mortality rate for those younger than 5 years by up to 17% (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.85) and prevent 153 601 (95% CI, 127 441-180 600) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cohort study suggest that the expansion of CCT programs could strongly reduce childhood hospitalization and mortality in Latin America and should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health impact of the current global economic crisis in low- and middle-income countries.

The effects of cash transfer programmes on HIV/AIDS prevention and care outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of intervention studies.

BACKGROUND: Poverty and social inequality are risk factors for poor health outcomes in patients with HIV/AIDS. In addition to eligibility, cash transfer programmes can be divided into two categories: those with specific requirements (conditional cash transfers [CCTs]) and those without specific requirements (unconditional cash transfers). Common CCT requirements include health care (eg, undergoing an HIV test) and education (eg, children attending school). Trials assessing the effect of cash transfer programmes on HIV/AIDS outcomes have yielded divergent findings. This review aimed to summarise evidence to evaluate the effects of cash transfer programmes on HIV/AIDS prevention and care outcomes. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, LILACS, WHO IRIS, PAHO-IRIS, BDENF, Secretaria Estadual de Saúde SP, Localizador de Informação em Saúde, Coleciona SUS, BINACIS, IBECS, CUMED, SciELO, and Web of Science up to Nov 28, 2022. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated the effects of cash transfer programmes on HIV incidence, HIV testing, retention in HIV care, and antiretroviral therapy adherence, and conducted risk of bias and quality of evidence assessments using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations approach. A random-effects meta-analysis model was used to combine studies and calculate risk ratios (RRs). Subgroup analyses were performed using conditionality types (ie, school attendance or health care). The protocol was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021274452. FINDINGS: 16 RCTs, which included 5241 individuals, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Of these, 13 studies included conditionalities for receiving cash transfer programmes. The results showed that receiving a cash transfer was associated with lowered HIV incidence among individuals who had to meet health-care conditionalities (RR 0·74, 95% CI 0·56-0·98) and with increased retention in HIV care for pregnant women (1·14, 95% CI 1·03-1·27). No significant effect was observed for HIV testing (RR 0·45, 95% CI 0·18-1·12) or antiretroviral therapy adherence (1·13, 0·73-1·75). Lower risk of bias was observed for HIV incidence and having an HIV test. The strength of available evidence can be classified as moderate. INTERPRETATION: Cash transfer programmes have a positive effect on mitigating HIV incidence for individuals who have to meet health-care conditionalities and on increasing retention in HIV care for pregnant women. These results show the potential of cash transfer programmes for HIV prevention and care, especially among people in extreme poverty, and highlight that cash transfer programmes must be considered when developing policies for HIV/AIDS control, as indicated by the UNAIDS 95-95-95 target of the HIV care continuum. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, USA.

Incorporating social determinants of health into the mathematical modeling of HIV/AIDS.

Currently, it is estimated that 37.6 million people are living with the HIV/AIDS virus worldwide, placing HIV/AIDS among the ten leading causes of death, mostly among low- and lower-middle-income countries. Despite the effective intervention in the prevention and treatment, this reduction did not occur equally among populations, subpopulations and geographic regions. This difference in the occurrence of the disease is associated with the social determinants of health (SDH), which could affect the transmission and maintenance of HIV. With the recognition of the importance of SDH in HIV transmission, the development of mathematical models that incorporate these determinants could increase the accuracy and robustness of the modeling. This article aims to propose a theoretical and conceptual way of including SDH in the mathematical modeling of HIV/AIDS. The theoretical mathematical model with the Social Determinants of Health has been developed in stages. For the selection of SDH that were incorporated into the model, a narrative literature review was conducted. Secondly, we proposed an extended model in which the population (N) is divided into Susceptible (S), HIV-positive (I), Individual with AIDS (A) and individual under treatment (T). Each SDH had a different approach to embedding in the model. We performed a calibration and validation of the model. A total of 31 SDH were obtained in the review, divided into four groups: Individual Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Social Participation, and Health Services. In the end, four determinants were selected for incorporation into the model: Education, Poverty, Use of Drugs and Alcohol abuse, and Condoms Use. the section "Numerical simulation" to simulate the influence of the poverty rate on the AIDS incidence and mortality rates. We used a Brazilian dataset of new AIDS cases and deaths, which is publicly available. We calibrated the model using a multiobjective genetic algorithm for the years 2003 to 2019. To forecast from 2020 to 2035, we assumed two lines of poverty rate representing (i) a scenario of increasing and (ii) a scenario of decreasing. To avoid overfitting, we fixed some parameters and estimated the remaining. The equations presented with the chosen SDH exemplify some approaches that we can adopt when thinking about modeling social effects on the occurrence of HIV. The model was able to capture the influence of the employment/poverty on the HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality rates, evidencing the importance of SDOH in the occurrence of diseases. The recognition of the importance of including the SDH in the modeling and studies on HIV/AIDS is evident, due to its complexity and multicausality. Models that do not take into account in their structure, will probably miss a great part of the real trends, especially in periods, as the current on, of economic crisis and strong socioeconomic changes.

The global failure of facing the pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in late 2019 has had social, political, and economic consequences worldwide. However, its emergence was not a surprise. In 2015, a Panel organised by the World Health Organization highlighted the importance of learning about the crisis caused by the Ebola epidemic. In 1992, the Committee on Emerging Microbial Threats to Health of the US Institute of Medicine warned of the possibility of an emerging global microbial threat. In this text, we point out five arguments that reveal the global failure in facing the pandemic: (1) deficiency in the global alert system and the fragility of the International Health Regulations (IHR-2005), (2) problems of the international response to the pandemic, related to global health governance, (3) the dispersed global adoption of the elimination strategy (zero Covid) widely seen as a policy of restriction of freedom instead as a strategy of inequities reduction, (4) fragile control of the disease with a narrow reading of the associated problems, and (5) global setbacks in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the context of ongoing neoliberal national policies. Finally, we argue that overcoming the weaknesses discussed requires strengthening health systems in all their components and expanding social welfare policies.[Figure: see text].

Drug administration errors in Latin America: A systematic review.

PURPOSE: This study systematically reviewed studies to determine the frequency and nature of medication administration errors in Latin American hospitals. SUMMARY: We systematically searched the medical literature of seven electronic databases to identify studies on medication administration errors in Latin American hospitals using the direct observation method. Studies published in English, Spanish, or Portuguese between 1946 and March 2021 were included. A total of 10 studies conducted at 22 hospitals were included in the review. Nursing professionals were the most frequently observed during medication administration and were observers in four of the ten included studies. Total number of error opportunities was used as a parameter to calculate error rates. The administration error rate had a median of 32% (interquartile range 16%-35.8%) with high variability in the described frequencies (9%-64%). Excluding time errors, the median error rate was 9.7% (interquartile range 7.4%-29.5%). Four different definitions of medication errors were used in these studies. The most frequently observed errors were time, dose, and omission. Only four studies described the therapeutic classes or groups involved in the errors, with systemic anti-infectives being the most reported. None of the studies assessed the severity or outcome of the errors. The assessment of the overall risk bias revealed that one study had low risk, three had moderate risk, and three had high risk. In the assessment of the exploratory, observational, and before-after studies, two were classified as having fair quality and one as having poor quality. CONCLUSION: The administration error rate in Latin America was high, even when time errors were excluded. The variation observed in the frequencies can be explained by the different contexts in which the study was conducted. Future research using direct observation techniques is necessary to more accurately estimate the nature and severity of medication administration errors.

Observational study on medication administration errors at a University Hospital in Brazil: incidence, nature and associated factors.

BACKGROUND: Medication administration errors are frequent and cause significant harm globally. However, only a few data are available on their prevalence, nature, and severity in developing countries, particularly in Brazil. This study attempts to determine the incidence, nature, and factors associated with medication administration errors observed in a university hospital. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study, conducted in a clinical and surgical unit of a University Hospital in Brazil. Two previously trained professionals directly observed medication preparation and administration for 15 days, 24 h a day, in February 2020. The type of error, the category of the medication involved, according to the anatomical therapeutic chemical classification system, and associated risk factors were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression was adopted to identify factors associated with errors. RESULTS: The administration of 561 drug doses was observed. The mean total medication administration error rate was 36.2% (95% confidence interval 32.3-40.2). The main factors associated with time errors were interruptions. Regarding technique errors, the primary factors observed were the route of administration, interruptions, and workload. CONCLUSIONS: Here, we identified a high total medication administration error rate, the most frequent being technique, wrong time, dose, and omission errors. The factors associated with errors were interruptions, route of administration and workload, which agrees well with the results of other national and international studies.

Validation of a method to assess the severity of medication administration errors in Brazil: a study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Medication errors are frequent and have a high economic and social impact and is critical to know their severity. A variety of tools exist to measure and classify the harms associated with medication errors, but few are internationally validated. DESIGN AND METHODS: It was decided to validate a method proposed by Dean and Barber for assessment of the potential severity of medication administration errors. A number of thirty health care professionals (doctors, nurses and pharmacists) from Brazil will receive an invitation to take part by scoring 50 cases of medication errors gathered from an original UK study regarding their potential harm to the patient on scale 0 to 10. Sixteen cases with known actual harm outcomes will be used to assess the validity of their scoring. By looking at 10 errors (out of the 50 cases) scored twice, reliability shall be assessed; and potential sources of variability in scoring will be evaluated depending on the severity of each of error case, the occasion when the scores were given, the scorer, their profession, and interactions among these variables. Generalizability theory will be used for analysing data. Expected impact of the study for public health: This study was submitted to the evaluation of the Research Ethics Committee of the Complexo Hospitalar Universitário Professor Edgard Santos and approved under no. 3.102.570/2019. This is the first validation of this method for use in Brazil, and will allow researchers to conduct more standardised evaluations of interventions to reduce the impact of medication errors.

Health equity and COVID-19: global perspectives.

The COVID-19 is disproportionally affecting the poor, minorities and a broad range of vulnerable populations, due to its inequitable spread in areas of dense population and limited mitigation capacity due to high prevalence of chronic conditions or poor access to high quality public health and medical care. Moreover, the collateral effects of the pandemic due to the global economic downturn, and social isolation and movement restriction measures, are unequally affecting those in the lowest power strata of societies. To address the challenges to health equity and describe some of the approaches taken by governments and local organizations, we have compiled 13 country case studies from various regions around the world: China, Brazil, Thailand, Sub Saharan Africa, Nicaragua, Armenia, India, Guatemala, United States of America (USA), Israel, Australia, Colombia, and Belgium. This compilation is by no-means representative or all inclusive, and we encourage researchers to continue advancing global knowledge on COVID-19 health equity related issues, through rigorous research and generation of a strong evidence base of new empirical studies in this field.

The potential impact of austerity on attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals in Brazil.

In the recent decades, Brazil has outperformed comparable countries in its progress toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Many of these improvements have been driven by investments in health and social policies. In this article, we aim to identify potential impacts of austerity policies in Brazil on the chances of achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and its consequences for population health. Austerity's anticipated impacts are assessed by analysing the change in federal spending on different budget programmes from 2014 to 2017. We collected budget data made publicly available by the Senate. Among the selected 19 programmes, only 4 had their committed budgets increased, in real terms, between 2014 and 2017. The total amount of extra money committed to these four programmes in 2017, above that committed in 2014, was small (BR$9.7 billion). Of the 15 programmes that had budget cuts in the period from 2014 to 2017, the total decrease amounted to BR$60.2 billion (US$15.3 billion). In addition to the overall large budget reduction, it is noteworthy that the largest proportional reductions were in programmes targeted at more vulnerable populations. In conclusion, it seems clear that the current austerity policies in Brazil will probably damage the population's health and increase inequities, and that the possibility of meeting SDG targets is lower in 2018 than it was in 2015.

Mortality associated with alternative primary healthcare policies: a nationwide microsimulation modelling study in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Brazil's Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF) is one of the largest and most robustly evaluated primary healthcare programmes of the world, but it could be affected by fiscal austerity measures and by the possible end of the Mais Médicos programme (MMP)-a major intervention to increase primary care doctors in underserved areas. We forecast the impact of alternative scenarios of ESF coverage changes on under-70 mortality from ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) until 2030, the date for achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). METHOD: A synthetic cohort of 5507 Brazilian municipalities was created for the period 2017-2030. A municipal-level microsimulation model was developed and validated using longitudinal data and estimates from a previous retrospective study evaluating the effects of municipal ESF coverage on mortality rates. Reductions in ESF coverage, and its effects on ACSC mortality, were forecast based on two probable austerity scenarios, compared with the maintenance of the current coverage or the expansion to 100%. Fixed effects longitudinal regression models were employed to account for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, healthcare-related variables, and programme duration effects. RESULTS: Under austerity scenarios of decreasing ESF coverage with and without the MMP termination, mean ACSC mortality rates would be 8.60% (95% CI 7.03-10.21%; 48,546 excess premature/under-70 deaths along 2017-2030) and 5.80% (95% CI 4.23-7.35%; 27,685 excess premature deaths) higher respectively in 2030 compared to maintaining the current ESF coverage. Comparing decreasing ESF coverage and MMP termination with achieving 100% ESF coverage (Universal Health Coverage scenario) in 2030, mortality rates would be 11.12% higher (95% CI 9.47-12.76%; 83,937 premature deaths). Reductions in ESF coverage would have stronger effects on mortality from infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies and would disproportionately impact poorer municipalities, with the concentration index for ACSC mortality 11.77% higher (95% CI 0.31-22.32%) and also ending historical declines in racial health inequalities between white and black/pardo Brazilians. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in primary healthcare coverage due to austerity measures are likely to be responsible for many avoidable deaths and may preclude achievement of SDGs for health and inequality in Brazil and in other low- and middle-income countries.

The right to health in Brazil: A Constitutional guarantee threatened by fiscal austerity.

After 25 years of expanding coverage and improving the quality of preventive public health measures and publicly financed medical care associated with positive outcomes for the health of Brazil's population, our country suffers from deterioration of social policies. Among the areas of policy affected by new economic austerity measures is health-with potential to damage lives. These threats stem mainly from the 2016 approval of a Constitutional amendment that limits, for the next 20 years, public investments in health, education, social assistance, and social security. This viewpoint addresses how the changes have come about and the possible consequences.

[The needed Brazilian Health System and the possible Brazilian Health System: management strategies. An experience-based reflection]. / O SUS necessário e o SUS possível: estratégias de gestão. Uma reflexão a partir de uma experiência concreta.

The present text presents a reflection about the author's experience as head of a Health Department of a big city during two and a half years. It presents a systematization of the strategic projects, the political and technical activities and the managerial routine, in which he was involved. It identifies three levels (macro, meso and micro) and four dimensions of management (social-political, institutional, technical-sanitary and administrative in the strict sense). In each dimension, on the three levels, it discusses management strategies designed to contribute to the construction of a universal and equitable Brazilian Health System (SUS). Although it may be premature to evaluate the degree of implantation and the effects of the proposed strategies, their analysis and discussion can be useful for being strongly based on empirical elements. The paper concludes that, even though the consolidation of the SUS is a political struggle that surpasses the management arena, managers are important agents who need to know how to develop strategies able to foster the principles of universality and equity.