Hyperarousal dynamics reveal an overnight increase boosted by insomnia.

Hyperarousal is a key symptom of anxiety, stress-related disorders, and insomnia. However, it has been conceptualized in many different ways, ranging from various physiological markers (e.g. cortisol levels, high-frequency EEG activity) to personality traits, or state assessments of subjective anxiety and tension. This approach resulted in partly inconsistent evidence, complicating unified interpretations. Crucially, no previous studies addressed the likely variability of hyperarousal within and across days, nor the relationship of such variability in hyperarousal with the night-by-night variability in sleep quality characteristic of insomnia. Here, we present a novel data-driven approach to understanding dynamics of state hyperarousal in insomnia. Using ecological momentary assessment, we tracked fluctuations in a wide range of emotions across 9 days in 169 people with insomnia disorders and 38 controls without sleep problems. Exploratory factor analysis identified a hyperarousal factor, comprised of items describing tension and distress. People with insomnia scored significantly higher on this factor than controls at all timepoints. In both groups, the hyperarousal factor score peaked in the morning and waned throughout the day, pointing to a potential contributing role of sleep or other circadian processes. Importantly, the overnight increase in hyperarousal was stronger in people with in insomnia than in controls. Subsequent adaptive LASSO regression analysis revealed a stronger overnight increase in hyperarousal across nights of worse subjective sleep quality. These findings demonstrate the relationship between subjective sleep quality and overnight modulations of hyperarousal. Disorders in which hyperarousal is a predominant complaint might therefore benefit from interventions focused on improving sleep quality.

Bayesian analysis of Formula One race results: disentangling driver skill and constructor advantage.

Successful performance in Formula One is determined by combination of both the driver's skill and race-car constructor advantage. This makes key performance questions in the sport difficult to answer. For example, who is the best Formula One driver, which is the best constructor, and what is their relative contribution to success? In this paper, we answer these questions based on data from the hybrid era in Formula One (2014-2021 seasons). We present a novel Bayesian multilevel rank-ordered logit regression method to model individual race finishing positions. We show that our modelling approach describes our data well, which allows for precise inferences about driver skill and constructor advantage. We conclude that Hamilton and Verstappen are the best drivers in the hybrid era, the top-three teams (Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull) clearly outperform other constructors, and approximately 88 % of the variance in race results is explained by the constructor. We argue that this modelling approach may prove useful for sports beyond Formula One, as it creates performance ratings for independent components contributing to success.

Exploratory factor analysis with structured residuals for brain network data.

Dimension reduction is widely used and often necessary to make network analyses and their interpretation tractable by reducing high-dimensional data to a small number of underlying variables. Techniques such as exploratory factor analysis (EFA) are used by neuroscientists to reduce measurements from a large number of brain regions to a tractable number of factors. However, dimension reduction often ignores relevant a priori knowledge about the structure of the data. For example, it is well established that the brain is highly symmetric. In this paper, we (a) show the adverse consequences of ignoring a priori structure in factor analysis, (b) propose a technique to accommodate structure in EFA by using structured residuals (EFAST), and (c) apply this technique to three large and varied brain-imaging network datasets, demonstrating the superior fit and interpretability of our approach. We provide an R software package to enable researchers to apply EFAST to other suitable datasets.

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.