The predictive value of antinuclear antibodies in patients with suspected connective tissue disease for the development of connective tissue diseases.

OBJECTIVES: Early confirmation of the diagnosis of connective tissue diseases (CTD) is important, as prolonged disease activity can result in irreversible organ damage. Although antinuclear antibodies (ANAs) have been shown to precede the diagnosis of SLE, this has not been investigated in large cohorts for other CTDs. In this study, we investigated whether the presence of antinuclear autoantibodies in undiagnosed patients suspected of having CTDs is predictive of development of a future CTD. METHODS: We screened the Electronic Health Records of a cohort of 1030 patients, who were tested for ANAs and their specificity in 2013/2014, to evaluate whether new CTD diagnoses had been recorded by a clinician between the original blood draw date and 2020. We compared the prevalence of ANAs in patients who developed a new CTD diagnosis during follow-up with patients with similar symptoms at baseline who did not receive a subsequent CTD diagnosis and with patients with an established CTD at baseline. RESULTS: Sixteen out of 1030 patients had developed a new CTD in the studied time period. The mean time period between baseline blood draw and subsequent CTD diagnosis of these patients was approximately 2.3 years. Eleven out of 16 (69%) newly diagnosed patients had positive ANA screening tests, compared to 54% of patients with a CTD diagnosis at baseline (p=ns) and 30% of symptomatic undiagnosed patients (p<0.001). This resulted in a positive predictive value (PPV) of 7% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 98% for the development of a new CTD in undiagnosed symptomatic patients. For specific ANAs associated with the suspected CTD, the PPV was 12%, with a NPV of 98%. CONCLUSIONS: Progression to a CTD diagnosis is rare in undiagnosed patients. Undiagnosed patients with symptoms associated with a CTD who progress to a CTD more often have ANAs than patients with similar symptoms who do not progress to a CTD. ANA testing can be used to more stringently select patients who should remain in follow-up.

Identifying relevant determinants of in-hospital time to diagnosis for ANCA-associated vasculitis patients.

Objectives: Diagnosing patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) can be challenging owing to its rarity and complexity. Diagnostic delay can have severe consequences, such as chronic organ damage or even death. Given that few studies have addressed diagnostic pathways to identify opportunities to improve, we performed a clinical audit to evaluate the diagnostic phase. Methods: This retrospective, observational study of electronic medical records data in hospitals focused on diagnostic procedures during the first assessment until diagnosis. Results: We included 230 AAV patients from nine hospitals. First assessments were mainly performed by a specialist in internal medicine (52%), pulmonology (14%), ENT (13%) or rheumatology (10%). The overall median time to diagnosis was 13 [interquartile range: 2-49] days, and in patients primarily examined by a specialist in internal medicine it was 6 [1-25] days, rheumatology 14 [4-45] days, pulmonology 15 [5-70] days and ENT 57 [16-176] days (P = 0.004). Twenty-two of 31 (71%) patients primarily assessed by a specialist in ENT had non-generalized disease, of whom 14 (64%) had ENT-limited activity. Two hundred and nineteen biopsies were performed in 187 patients (81%). Histopathological support for AAV was observed in 86% of kidney biopsies, 64% of lung biopsies and 34% of ENT biopsies. Conclusion: In The Netherlands, AAV is diagnosed and managed predominantly by internal medicine specialists. Diagnostic delay was associated with non-generalized disease and ENT involvement at presentation. Additionally, ENT biopsies had a low diagnostic yield, in contrast to kidney and lung biopsies. Awareness of this should lead to more frequent consideration of AAV and early referral for a multidisciplinary approach when AAV is suspected.

Using real-world data to dynamically predict flares during tapering of biological DMARDs in rheumatoid arthritis: development, validation, and potential impact of prediction-aided decisions.

BACKGROUND: Biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) are effective in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. However, as bDMARDs may also lead to adverse events and are expensive, tapering them is of great clinical interest. Tapering according to disease activity-guided dose optimization (DGDO) does not seem to affect long term remission rates, but flares are frequent during this process. Our objective was to develop a model for the prediction of flares during bDMARD tapering using data from routine care and to evaluate its potential clinical impact. METHODS: We used a joint latent class model to repeatedly predict the probability of a flare occurring within the next 3 months. The model was developed using longitudinal data on disease activity (DAS28) and other routine care data from two clinics. Predictive accuracy was assessed in cross-validation and external validation was performed with data from the DRESS (Dose REduction Strategy of Subcutaneous tumor necrosis factor inhibitors) trial. Additionally, we simulated the reduction in number of flares and bDMARD dose when implementing the model as a decision aid during bDMARD tapering in the DRESS trial. RESULTS: Data from 279 bDMARD courses were used for model development. The final model included two latent DAS28-trajectories, bDMARD type and dose, disease duration, and seropositivity. The area under the curve of the final model was 0.76 (0.69-0.83) in cross-validation and 0.68 (0.62-0.73) in external validation. In simulation of prediction-aided decisions, the mean number of flares over 18 months decreased from 1.21 (0.99-1.43) to 0.75 (0.54-0.96). The reduction in he bDMARD dose was mostly maintained, increasing from 54 to 64% of full dose. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a dynamic flare prediction model, exclusively based on data typically available in routine care. Our results show that using this model to aid decisions during bDMARD tapering may significantly reduce the number of flares while maintaining most of the bDMARD dose reduction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The clinical impact of the prediction model is currently under investigation in the PATIO randomized controlled trial (Dutch Trial Register number NL9798).

Hypoxia and TLR9 activation drive CXCL4 production in systemic sclerosis plasmacytoid dendritic cells via mtROS and HIF-2α.

OBJECTIVE: SSc is a complex disease characterized by vascular abnormalities and inflammation culminating in hypoxia and excessive fibrosis. Previously, we identified chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 4 (CXCL4) as a novel predictive biomarker in SSc. Although CXCL4 is well-studied, the mechanisms driving its production are unclear. The aim of this study was to elucidate the mechanisms leading to CXCL4 production. METHODS: Plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) from 97 healthy controls and 70 SSc patients were cultured in the presence of hypoxia or atmospheric oxygen level and/or stimulated with several toll-like receptor (TLR) agonists. Further, pro-inflammatory cytokine production, CXCL4, hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) -1α and HIF-2α gene and protein expression were assessed using ELISA, Luminex, qPCR, FACS and western blot assays. RESULTS: CXCL4 release was potentiated only when pDCs were simultaneously exposed to hypoxia and TLR9 agonist (P < 0.0001). Here, we demonstrated that CXCL4 production is dependent on the overproduction of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (mtROS) (P = 0.0079) leading to stabilization of HIF-2α (P = 0.029). In addition, we show that hypoxia is fundamental for CXCL4 production by umbilical cord CD34 derived pDCs. CONCLUSION: TLR-mediated activation of immune cells in the presence of hypoxia underpins the pathogenic production of CXCL4 in SSc. Blocking either mtROS or HIF-2α pathways may therapeutically attenuate the contribution of CXCL4 to SSc and other inflammatory diseases driven by CXCL4.

Targeted Proteomics Reveals Inflammatory Pathways that Classify Immune Dysregulation in Common Variable Immunodeficiency.

Patients with common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) can develop immune dysregulation complications such as autoimmunity, lymphoproliferation, enteritis, and malignancy, which cause significant morbidity and mortality. We aimed to (i) assess the potential of serum proteomics in stratifying patients with immune dysregulation using two independent cohorts and (ii) identify cytokine and chemokine signaling pathways that underlie immune dysregulation in CVID. A panel of 180 markers was measured in two multicenter CVID cohorts using Olink Protein Extension Assay technology. A classification algorithm was trained to distinguish CVID with immune dysregulation (CVIDid, n = 14) from CVID with infections only (CVIDio, n = 16) in the training cohort, and validated on a second testing cohort (CVIDid n = 23, CVIDio n = 24). Differential expression in both cohorts was used to determine relevant signaling pathways. An elastic net classifier using MILR1, LILRB4, IL10, IL12RB1, and CD83 could discriminate between CVIDid and CVIDio patients with a sensitivity of 0.83, specificity of 0.75, and area under the curve of 0.73 in an independent testing cohort. Activated pathways (fold change > 1.5, FDR-adjusted p < 0.05) in CVIDid included Th1 and Th17-associated signaling, as well as IL10 and other immune regulatory markers (LAG3, TNFRSF9, CD83). Targeted serum proteomics provided an accurate and reproducible tool to discriminate between patients with CVIDid and CVIDio. Cytokine profiles provided insight into activation of Th1 and Th17 pathways and indicate a possible role for chronic inflammation and exhaustion in immune dysregulation. These findings serve as a first step towards the development of biomarkers for immune dysregulation in CVID.

The performance of dual-energy CT in the classification criteria of gout: a prospective study in subjects with unclassified arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To establish the performance of (subsets of) the 2015 ACR/EULAR gout classification criteria in patients with unclassified arthritis, and to determine the value of dual-energy CT (DECT) herein. Reference was the MSU crystal detection result in SF at polarization microscopy. METHODS: We included subjects with acute, unclassified mono or oligoarthritis, who underwent SF analysis and DECT. Performance was assessed by calculating area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of (i) the clinical criteria subset, (ii) the clinical+serum urate subset and (iii) the full set (including DECT). RESULTS: Of the 89 subjects enrolled, 40 met the clinical+serum urate subset criteria, and 49 (55%) subjects did not. Of these 49, 30 had a negative microscopy result, of whom 15 had positive DECT; of these 15, 14 met the full set criteria only after adding the positive DECT result. For the clinical-only subset, the areas under the curves (AUCs) were 0.68 and 0.69 without and with DECT result, respectively, and for the clinical+serum urate subset without and with DECT, AUCs were 0.81 and 0.81, respectively (results not significant). CONCLUSION: Adding the serum urate results to the clinical subset improves the performance, but adding the DECT result does not, neither does adding the DECT results to the clinical+serum urate subset. However, DECT seems to have an additive value in gout classification, especially when microscopy of SF is negative; 14/89 of patients (16%) only met the classification criteria with the use of DECT. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, http://clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03038386.

Fast track algorithm: How to differentiate a "scleroderma pattern" from a "non-scleroderma pattern".

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to propose a simple "Fast Track algorithm" for capillaroscopists of any level of experience to differentiate "scleroderma patterns" from "non-scleroderma patterns" on capillaroscopy and to assess its inter-rater reliability. METHODS: Based on existing definitions to categorise capillaroscopic images as "scleroderma patterns" and taking into account the real life variability of capillaroscopic images described standardly according to the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) Study Group on Microcirculation in Rheumatic Diseases, a fast track decision tree, the "Fast Track algorithm" was created by the principal expert (VS) to facilitate swift categorisation of an image as "non-scleroderma pattern (category 1)" or "scleroderma pattern (category 2)". Mean inter-rater reliability between all raters (experts/attendees) of the 8th EULAR course on capillaroscopy in Rheumatic Diseases (Genoa, 2018) and, as external validation, of the 8th European Scleroderma Trials and Research group (EUSTAR) course on systemic sclerosis (SSc) (Nijmegen, 2019) versus the principal expert, as well as reliability between the rater pairs themselves was assessed by mean Cohen's and Light's kappa coefficients. RESULTS: Mean Cohen's kappa was 1/0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.98) for the 6 experts/135 attendees of the 8th EULAR capillaroscopy course and 1/0.94 (95% CI 0.92-0.96) for the 3 experts/85 attendees of the 8th EUSTAR SSc course. Light's kappa was 1/0.92 at the 8th EULAR capillaroscopy course, and 1/0.87 at the 8th EUSTAR SSc course. CONCLUSION: For the first time, a clinical expert based fast track decision algorithm has been developed to differentiate a "non-scleroderma" from a "scleroderma pattern" on capillaroscopic images, demonstrating excellent reliability when applied by capillaroscopists with varying levels of expertise versus the principal expert and corroborated with external validation.

The diagnostic performance of dual energy CT for diagnosing gout: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the utility of dual energy CT (DECT) for diagnosing gout. METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Library. Studies evaluating the utility of DECT for diagnosing gout were included. Reference standards were detection of monosodium urate crystals at SF assessment or a validated set of criteria. The methodological quality of studies was evaluated according to the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS)-2 criteria. Data from person-based and joint-/localization-based evaluations were pooled separately, and subgroup analyses for disease stage/duration and reference standard were performed. RESULTS: Ten studies were included; in person-based evaluations, the pooled (95% CI) sensitivity and specificity were 0.81 (0.77, 0.86) and 0.91 (0.85, 0.95), respectively. In joint-based evaluations, they were 0.83 (0.79, 0.86) and 0.88 (0.83, 0.92), respectively. At short disease duration (⩽6 weeks), the pooled (95% CI) sensitivity and specificity at the joint level were 0.55 (0.46, 0.64) and 0.89 (0.84, 0.94), respectively. CONCLUSION: DECT has a high diagnostic accuracy in established gout, but its diagnostic sensitivity is low in subjects with recent onset gout.

Five-Year Follow-up of Knee Joint Distraction: Clinical Benefit and Cartilaginous Tissue Repair in an Open Uncontrolled Prospective Study.

Objective In end-stage knee osteoarthritis, total knee arthroplasty (TKA) may finally become inevitable. At a relatively young age, this comes with the risk of future revision surgery. Therefore, in these cases, joint preserving surgery such as knee joint distraction (KJD) is preferred. Here we present 5-year follow-up data of KJD. Design Patients ( n = 20; age <60 years) with conservative therapy resistant tibiofemoral osteoarthritis considered for TKA were treated. Clinical evaluation was performed by questionnaires. Change in cartilage thickness was quantified on radiographs and magnetic resonance images (MRI). The 5-year changes after KJD were evaluated and compared with the natural progression of osteoarthritis using Osteoarthritis Initiative data. Results Five-years posttreatment, patients still reported clinical improvement from baseline: ΔWOMAC (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index) +21.1 points (95% CI +8.9 to +33.3; P = 0.002), ΔVAS (visual analogue scale score) pain -27.6 mm (95%CI -13.3 to -42.0; P < 0.001), and minimum radiographic joint space width (JSW) of the most affected compartment (MAC) remained increased as well: Δ +0.43 mm (95% CI +0.02 to +0.84; P = 0.040). Improvement of mean JSW (x-ray) and mean cartilage thickness (MRI) of the MAC, were not statistically different from baseline anymore (Δ +0.26 mm; P = 0.370, and Δ +0.23 mm; P = 0.177). Multivariable linear regression analysis indicated that KJD treatment was associated with significantly less progression in mean and min JSW (x-ray) and mean cartilage thickness (MRI) compared with natural progression (all Ps <0.001). Conclusions KJD treatment results in prolonged clinical benefit, potentially explained by an initial boost of cartilaginous tissue repair that provides a long-term tissue structure benefit as compared to natural progression. Level of evidence, II.

The clinical relevance of a repeat biopsy in lupus nephritis flares.

BACKGROUND: The clinical utility of performing repeat biopsies during lupus nephritis flares is questionable and data pointing towards frequent class switches are based on the old WHO classification. This retrospective study investigates the hypothesis that clinically relevant switches from proliferative to non-proliferative lesions and vice versa as determined by the new ISN/RPS classification are a rare event and that repeat biopsies are unnecessary in many cases. METHODS: Thirty-five patients with lupus nephritis and one or more repeat renal biopsies were included. Eighty-four biopsies were blindly reassessed according to the ISN/RPS classification. RESULTS: Twenty-five patients had one repeat biopsy, 6 patients had two and 4 patients had three repeat biopsies. Forty-nine comparisons between reference and repeat biopsies could be made. In 25 cases (54.3%), there was no shift in ISN/RPS class on repeat biopsies. In 41 instances, paired biopsies showed proliferative lesions both on reference and repeat biopsies, whereas five of six cases with non-proliferative lesions on a reference biopsy switched to proliferative lesions on a repeat biopsy. Clinically significant class switches during lupus nephritis flares were more frequent in patients with non-proliferative lesions in their reference biopsy (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The results show that patients with proliferative lesions in the original biopsy rarely switch to a pure non-proliferative nephritis during a flare. Therefore, a repeat biopsy during a lupus nephritis flare is frequently not necessary if proliferative lesions were found in the reference biopsy. However, in the case of a non-proliferative lesion in the reference biopsy, class switches are frequently found and repeat biopsies are advisable.