Patients' and clinicians' perspectives towards primary care consultations for shoulder pain: qualitative findings from the Prognostic and Diagnostic Assessment of the Shoulder (PANDA-S) programme.

BACKGROUND: Clinical management of musculoskeletal shoulder pain can be challenging due to diagnostic uncertainty, variable prognosis and limited evidence for long-term treatment benefits. The UK-based PANDA-S programme (Prognostic And Diagnostic Assessment of the Shoulder) is investigating short and long-term shoulder pain outcomes. This paper reports linked qualitative research exploring patients' and clinicians' views towards primary care consultations for shoulder pain. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 24 patients and 15 primary care clinicians. Twenty-two interviews (11 patients, 11 clinicians) were conducted as matched patient-clinician 'dyads'. Data were analysed thematically. RESULTS: Clinicians reported attempts to involve patients in management decisions; however, there was variation in whether patients preferred treatment choice, or for decisions to be clinician-led. Some patients felt uncertain about the decisions made, due to a lack of discussion about available management options. Many General Practitioners expressed a lack of confidence in diagnosing the underlying cause of shoulder pain. Patients reported either not being given a diagnosis, or receiving different diagnoses from different professionals, resulting in confusion. Whilst clinicians reported routinely discussing prognosis of shoulder pain, patients reported that prognosis was not raised. Patients also expressed concern that their shoulder pain could be caused by serious pathology; however, clinicians felt that this was not a common concern for patients. CONCLUSIONS: Findings showed disparities between patients' and clinicians' views towards shoulder pain consultations, indicating a need for improved patient-clinician communication. Findings will inform the design of an intervention to support treatment and referral decisions for shoulder pain that will be tested in a randomised controlled trial.

Group for Research and Assessment of Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis (GRAPPA): updated treatment recommendations for psoriatic arthritis 2021.

Since the second version of the Group for Research and Assessment of Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis (GRAPPA) treatment recommendations were published in 2015, therapeutic options for psoriatic arthritis (PsA) have advanced considerably. This work reviews the literature since the previous recommendations (data published 2013-2020, including conference presentations between 2017 and 2020) and reports high-quality, evidence-based, domain-focused recommendations for medication selection in PsA developed by GRAPPA clinicians and patient research partners. The overarching principles for the management of adults with PsA were updated by consensus. Principles considering biosimilars and tapering of therapy were added, and the research agenda was revised. Literature searches covered treatments for the key domains of PsA: peripheral arthritis, axial disease, enthesitis, dactylitis, and skin and nail psoriasis; additional searches were performed for PsA-related conditions (uveitis and inflammatory bowel disease) and comorbidities. Individual subcommittees used a GRADE-informed approach, taking into account the quality of evidence for therapies, to generate recommendations for each of these domains, which were incorporated into an overall schema. Choice of therapy for an individual should ideally address all disease domains active in that patient, supporting shared decision-making. As safety issues often affect potential therapeutic choices, additional consideration was given to relevant comorbidities. These GRAPPA treatment recommendations provide up-to-date, evidence-based guidance on PsA management for clinicians and people with PsA.

Do recommended interventions widen or narrow inequalities in musculoskeletal health? An equity-focussed systematic review of differential effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether seven interventions recommended by Public Health England for preventing and managing common musculoskeletal conditions reduce or widen health inequalities in adults with musculoskeletal conditions. METHODS: We used citation searches of Web of Science (date of 'parent publication' for each intervention to April 2021) to identify original research articles reporting subgroup or moderator analyses of intervention effects by social stratifiers defined using the PROGRESS-Plus frameworks. Randomized controlled trials, controlled before-after studies, interrupted time series, systematic reviews presenting subgroup/stratified analyses or meta-regressions, individual participant data meta-analyses and modelling studies were eligible. Two reviewers independently assessed the credibility of effect moderation claims using Instrument to assess the Credibility of Effect Moderation Analyses. A narrative approach to synthesis was used (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42019140018). RESULTS: Of 1480 potentially relevant studies, seven eligible analyses of single trials and five meta-analyses were included. Among these, we found eight claims of potential differential effectiveness according to social characteristics, but none that were judged to have high credibility. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of highly credible evidence of differential effectiveness in different social groups, and given ongoing national implementation, equity concerns may be best served by investing in monitoring and action aimed at ensuring fair access to these interventions.

Long-term clinical and socio-economic outcomes following wrist fracture: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

A comprehensive review of studies shows that patients with wrist fracture, aged over 50 years, experience pain and functional limitation long after fracture. This is associated with increased healthcare costs, and reduced quality of life. Understanding factors that predict poor outcomes is important for future healthcare policy and planning. PURPOSE: To summarise and appraise evidence on the prognosis and long-term clinical and socio-economic outcomes following wrist fracture among adults aged 50 years and over. METHODS: Five databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, AMED, CINAHL-P and PsycINFO) were comprehensively searched (supplemented by a grey-literature search) from inception till June 2021 for prospective/retrospective cohort studies of patients (≥ 50 years) with a history of wrist fracture and reporting long-term (≥ 6 months) outcomes. Peer study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment were conducted. A random effects meta-analysis was used to summarise estimates of pain and function outcomes. RESULTS: 78 studies (n = 688,041 patients) were included. Patients report persistent moderate to severe pain (range: 7.5%-62%) and functional limitations (range: 5.5-78%) up to 12-months or later after wrist fracture. Mean Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation (PRWE) score for pain and function (9 studies, n = 1759 patients) was 15.23 (95%CI 12.77, 17.69) at 6-months to 13-years follow-up. Mean disabilities of the arm, shoulder and hand (DASH) score (9 studies, n = 1346 patients) was 13.82 (95%CI 12.71, 14.93)( at 6- to 17-months follow-up. A 10-20% increase in healthcare encounters in the first 12-months after fracture was observed. Twelve prognostic factors were associated with poor long-term outcomes. CONCLUSION: Evidence shows that a high proportion of people aged over 50 years with wrist fracture experience pain and functional limitation > 6 months after fracture. This is associated with increased healthcare costs, and reduced quality of life. Exploratory evidence was found for several candidate prognostic factors. Their predictive performance needs to be investigated further. PROSPERO: CRD42018116478.

[Clinical decision-making: from diagnosis to prognosis-oriented approach]. / Klinische besluitvorming.

Traditionally, diagnosis is the basis for clinical decision-making and regarded as the guide to prognosis and treatment. Although some patients may particularly benefit such a diagnosis-oriented approach (e.g., patients with acute pathology for which effective treatment is available), this approach is not suitable or sufficient for others (e.g., patients without a diagnosis, patients with a diagnosis for which no treatment is available, and patients for whom the current treatment is insufficient). Furthermore, other factors than diagnosis or diagnosis-guided treatment are likely to influence an individual's outcome (prognosis), including biological, clinical, and social factors. The authors propose a prognosis-oriented approach as an alternative starting point for medical decision-making: not only ask yourself 'what is the explanation for my patient's complaint?', but also 'which factors contribute to the future outcome of this complaint?' and 'can I address these to benefit my patient's outcome?'.

Moderators of the effects of therapeutic exercise for people with knee and hip osteoarthritis: A systematic review of sub-group analyses from randomised controlled trials.

Objective: 1) To identify potential moderators of the effect of therapeutic exercise explored in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of knee and hip osteoarthritis (OA); 2) summarise the extent, strength and quality of evidence reported for moderators. Design: Systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42019148074). Inclusion criteria: a) RCTs with sub-group analyses investigating potential moderator variables; b) participants with knee and/or hip OA; c) therapeutic exercise interventions compared to either no exercise control or alternative exercise intervention(s), and; d) measuring pain or physical function outcomes. Included RCTs' risk of bias and sub-group analysis quality were assessed. Data were extracted on sub-group analyses (methods and potential moderators), outcomes (pain and function) and sub-group findings (associated statistics of potential moderator∗intervention effects). Findings were analysed using narrative synthesis. Results: 14 RCTs were included; 13 knee OA RCTs (n = 2743 participants) explored 23 potential moderators and 1 hip OA RCT (n = 203) explored 6 potential moderators. Sub-group analysis quality was mixed. Knee varus malalignment was the only moderator of therapeutic exercise compared to non-exercise control in 1 RCT (WOMAC-pain adjusted difference 12.7 in the neutral alignment sub-group and 1.8 in the malaligned sub-group, interaction term: p = 0.02). Varus thrust, knee laxity/instability, obesity and cardiac problems all moderated the effect of therapeutic exercise on pain or function compared to different comparison exercise. Conclusions: Therapeutic exercise may be effective for reducing pain in people with knee OA and neutral alignment but not for those with varus malalignment. The exercise moderator literature is limited. More robust evidence is required to inform sub-group exercise selection.

The Development and Content of the Vocational Advice Intervention and Training Package for the Study of Work and Pain (SWAP) Trial (ISRCTN 52269669).

Purpose There are substantial costs associated with sickness absence and struggling at work however existing services in the UK are largely restricted to those absent from work for greater than 6 months. This paper details the development of an early Vocational Advice Intervention (VAI) for adult primary care consulters who were struggling at work or absent due to musculoskeletal pain, and the structure and content of the training and mentoring package developed to equip the Vocational Advisors (VAs) to deliver the VAI, as part of the Study of Work and Pain (SWAP) cluster randomised trial. Methods In order to develop the intervention, we conducted a best-evidence literature review, summarised evidence from developmental studies and consulted with stakeholders. Results A novel early access, brief VAI was developed consisting of case management and stepped care (three steps), using the Psychosocial Flags Framework to identify and overcome obstacles associated with the health-work interface. Four healthcare practitioners were recruited to deliver the VAI; three physiotherapists and one nurse (all vocational advice was actually delivered by the three physiotherapists). They received training in the VA role during a 4-day course, with a refresher day 3 months later, along with monthly group mentoring sessions. Conclusions The process of development was sufficient to develop the VAI and associated training package. The evidence underpinning the VAI was drawn from an international perspective and key components of the VAI have the potential to be applied to other settings or countries, although this has yet to be tested.

Metabolic risk factors and the incidence and progression of radiographic hand osteoarthritis: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether selected metabolic factors are associated with greater amounts of radiographic hand osteoarthritis (OA) incidence and progression. METHODS: The study identified 706 adults, aged 50-69 years, with hand pain and hand radiographs at baseline, from two population-based cohorts. Metabolic factors (body mass index, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and diabetes) were ascertained at baseline by direct measurement and medical records. Analyses were undertaken following multiple imputation of missing data, and in complete cases (sensitivity analyses). Multivariable regression models estimated associations between metabolic factors and two measures of radiographic change at 7 years for all participants, individuals free of baseline radiographic OA, and in baseline hand OA subsets. Estimates were adjusted for baseline values and other covariates. RESULTS: The most consistent and strong associations observed were between the presence of diabetes and the amount of radiographic progression in individuals with nodal OA [adjusted mean differences in Kellgren-Lawrence summed score of 4.50 (-0.26, 9.25)], generalized OA [3.27 (-2.89, 9.42)], and erosive OA [3.05 (-13.56, 19.67)]. The remaining associations were generally weak or inconsistent, although numbers were limited for analyses of incident radiographic OA and erosive OA in particular. CONCLUSION: Overall metabolic risk factors were not independently or collectively associated with greater amounts of radiographic hand OA incidence or progression over 7 years, but diabetes was associated with radiographic progression in nodal, and possibly generalized and erosive OA. Diabetes has previously been associated with prevalent but not incident hand OA. Further investigation in hand OA subsets using objective measures accounting for disease duration and control is warranted.

Evidence flowers: An innovative, visual method of presenting "best evidence" summaries to health professional and lay audiences.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Barriers to dissemination and engagement with evidence pose a threat to implementing evidence-based medicine. Understanding, retention, and recall can be enhanced by visual presentation of information. The aim of this exploratory research was to develop and evaluate the accessibility and acceptability of visual summaries for presenting evidence syntheses with multiple exposures or outcomes to professional and lay audiences. METHODS: "Evidence flowers" were developed as a visual method of presenting data from 4 case scenarios: 2 complex evidence syntheses with multiple outcomes, Cochrane reviews, and clinical guidelines. Petals of evidence flowers were coloured according to the GRADE evidence rating system to display key findings and recommendations from the evidence summaries. Application of evidence flowers was observed during stakeholder workshops. Evaluation and feedback were conducted via questionnaires and informal interviews. RESULTS: Feedback from stakeholders on the evidence flowers collected from workshops, questionnaires, and interviews was encouraging and helpful for refining the design of the flowers. Comments were made on the content and design of the flowers, as well as the usability and potential for displaying different types of evidence. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence flowers are a novel and visually stimulating method for presenting research evidence from evidence syntheses with multiple exposures or outcomes, Cochrane reviews, and clinical guidelines. To promote access and engagement with research evidence, evidence flowers may be used in conjunction with other evidence synthesis products, such as (lay) summaries, evidence inventories, rapid reviews, and clinical guidelines. Additional research on potential adaptations and applications of the evidence flowers may further bridge the gap between research evidence and clinical practice.

Clinical course and prognostic factors across different musculoskeletal pain sites: A secondary analysis of individual patient data from randomised clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Previous research has identified similar prognostic factors in patients with musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions regardless of pain presentation, generating opportunities for management based on prognosis rather than specific pain presentation. METHODS: Data from seven RCTs (2483 participants) evaluating a range of primary care interventions for different MSK pain conditions were used to investigate the course of symptoms and explore similarities and differences in predictors of outcome. The value of pain site for predicting changes in pain and function was investigated and compared with that of age, gender, social class, pain duration, widespread pain and level of anxiety/depression. RESULTS: Over the initial three months of follow-up, changes in mean pain intensity reflected an improvement, with little change occurring after this period. Participants with knee pain due to osteoarthritis (OA) showed poorer long-term outcome (mean difference in pain reduction at 12 months -1.85, 95% CI -2.12 to -1.57, compared to low back pain). Increasing age, manual work, longer pain duration, widespread pain and increasing anxiety/depression scores were significantly associated with poorer outcome regardless of pain site. Testing of interactions showed some variation between pain sites, particularly for knee OA, where age, manual work and pain duration were most strongly associated with outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Despite some differences in prognostic factors for trial participants with knee OA who were older and had more chronic conditions, similarity of outcome predictors across regional MSK pain sites provides evidence to support targeting of treatment based on prognostic factors rather than site of pain. SIGNIFICANCE: Individual patient data analysis of trials across different regional musculoskeletal pain sites was used to evaluate course and prognostic factors associated with pain and disability. Overall, similarity of outcome predictors across these different pain sites supports targeting of treatment based on prognostic factors rather than pain site alone.

Physiotherapist-led suprascapular nerve blocks for persistent shoulder pain: Evaluation of a new service in the UK.

INTRODUCTION: This service evaluation explored and reported findings from a new physiotherapist-led service offering suprascapular nerve blocks (SSNBs) to patients with persistent shoulder pain. METHODS: We collected data before the SSNB injection and at the 6-weeks and 6-month follow-up from consecutive patients with persistent shoulder pain being treated by physiotherapists or an anaesthetist. Outcomes were patient-reported pain (numerical rating scale [NRS 0 to 10]), patient-specific functional score (PSFS) and health-related quality of life [the EuroQol five dimensions questionnaire (EQ5D-5 L)]. Exploratory analyses compared baseline and follow-up scores within each clinician delivery group (physiotherapists, anaesthetist). RESULTS: Forty patients (mean age 57 years [standard deviation {SD} 12]; 63% female) received an SSNB from a physiotherapist, eight patients (mean age 59 years [SD 11]; female 88%) received an SSNB from an anaesthetist. At the 6-week follow-up, the physiotherapy group showed a mean reduction in pain (on the NRS): 2.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3 to 3.0) and an improvement in function (on the PSFS): -1.3 (95% CI -1.9 to -0.4). Similar changes were found in those treated by the anaesthetist (pain: 1.3 [95% CI -1.18 to 3.80]; function: -1.4 (95% CI -3.18 to 0.35]). Very small changes, that were not statistically significant, were found in EQ5D-5 L scores. At the 6-month follow-up, the mean reduction in pain (NRS) was maintained at 2.0 (95% CI 0.99 to 2.95) for the physiotherapy group. CONCLUSION: The results provide early, exploratory evidence that patients with persistent shoulder pain treated by physiotherapists using palpation-guided SSNBs achieve clinically important changes in pain and function in the short and medium term.

Brief pain re-assessment provided more accurate prognosis than baseline information for low-back or shoulder pain.

BACKGROUND: Research investigating prognosis in musculoskeletal pain conditions has only been moderately successful in predicting which patients are unlikely to recover. Clinical decision making could potentially be improved by combining information taken at baseline and re-consultation. METHODS: Data from four prospective clinical cohorts of adults presenting to UK and Dutch primary care with low-back or shoulder pain was analysed, assessing long-term disability at 6 or 12 months and including baseline and 4-6 week assessments of pain. Baseline versus short-term assessments of pain, and previously validated multivariable prediction models versus repeat assessment, were compared to assess predictive performance of long-term disability outcome. A hypothetical clinical scenario was explored which made efficient use of both baseline and repeated assessment to identify patients likely to have a poor prognosis and decide on further treatment. RESULTS: Short-term repeat assessment of pain was better than short-term change or baseline score at predicting long-term disability improvement across all cohorts. Short-term repeat assessment of pain was only slightly more predictive of long-term recovery (c-statistics 0.78, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.83 and 0.75, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.82) than a multivariable baseline prognostic model in the two cohorts presenting such a model (c-statistics 0.71, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.76 and 0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.78). Combining optimal prediction at baseline using a multivariable prognostic model with short-term repeat assessment of pain in those with uncertain prognosis in a hypothetical clinical scenario resulted in reduction in the number of patients with an uncertain probability of recovery, thereby reducing the instances where patients may be inappropriately referred or reassured. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating short-term repeat assessment of pain into prognostic models could potentially optimise the clinical usefulness of prognostic information.

Does a modified STarT Back Tool predict outcome with a broader group of musculoskeletal patients than back pain? A secondary analysis of cohort data.

OBJECTIVES: The STarT Back Tool has good predictive performance for non-specific low back pain in primary care. We therefore aimed to investigate whether a modified STarT Back Tool predicted outcome with a broader group of musculoskeletal patients, and assessed the consequences of using existing risk-group cut-points across different pain regions. SETTING: Secondary analysis of prospective data from 2 cohorts: (1) outpatient musculoskeletal physiotherapy services (PhysioDirect trial n=1887) and (2) musculoskeletal primary-secondary care interface services (SAMBA study n=1082). PARTICIPANTS: Patients with back, neck, upper limb, lower limb or multisite pain with a completed modified STarT Back Tool (baseline) and 6-month physical health outcome (Short Form 36 (SF-36)). OUTCOMES: Area under the receiving operator curve (AUCs) tested discriminative abilities of the tool's baseline score for identifying poor 6-month outcome (SF-36 lower tertile Physical Component Score). Risk-group cut-points were tested using sensitivity and specificity for identifying poor outcome using (1) Youden's J statistic and (2) a clinically determined rule that specificity should not fall below 0.7 (false-positive rate <30%). RESULTS: In PhysioDirect and SAMBA, poor 6-month physical health was 18.5% and 28.2%, respectively. Modified STarT Back Tool score AUCs for predicting outcome in back pain were 0.72 and 0.79, neck 0.82 and 0.88, upper limb 0.79 and 0.86, lower limb 0.77 and 0.83, and multisite pain 0.83 and 0.82 in PhysioDirect and SAMBA, respectively. Differences between pain region AUCs were non-significant. Optimal cut-points to discriminate low-risk and medium-risk/high-risk groups depended on pain region and clinical services. CONCLUSIONS: A modified STarT Back Tool similarly predicts 6-month physical health outcome across 5 musculoskeletal pain regions. However, the use of consistent risk-group cut-points was not possible and resulted in poor sensitivity (too many with long-term disability being missed) or specificity (too many with good outcome inaccurately classified as 'at risk') for some pain regions. The draft tool is now being refined and validated within a new programme of research for a broader musculoskeletal population. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN55666618; Post results.

Pain trajectory groups in persons with, or at high risk of, knee osteoarthritis: findings from the Knee Clinical Assessment Study and the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: The authors aimed to characterize distinct trajectories of knee pain in adults who had, or were at high risk of, knee osteoarthritis using data from two population-based cohorts. METHOD: Latent class growth analysis was applied to measures of knee pain severity on activity obtained at 18-month intervals for up to 6 years between 2002 and 2009 from symptomatic participants aged over 50 years in the Knee Clinical Assessment Study (CAS-K) in the United Kingdom. The optimum latent class growth model from CAS-K was then tested for reproducibility in a matched sample of participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) in the United States. RESULTS: A 5-class linear model produced interpretable trajectories in CAS-K with reasonable goodness of fit and which were labelled "Mild, non-progressive" (N = 201, 35%), "Progressive" (N = 162, 28%), "Moderate" (N = 124, 22%) "Improving" (N = 68, 12%), and "Severe, non-improving" (N = 15, 3%). We were able to reproduce "Mild, non-progressive", "Moderate", and "Severe, non-improving" classes in the matched sample of participants from the OAI, however, absence of a "Progressive" class and instability of the "Improving" classes in the OAI was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings strengthen the grounds for moving beyond a simple stereotype of osteoarthritis as "slowly progressive". Mild, non-progressive or improving symptom trajectories, although difficult to reproduce, can nevertheless represent a genuinely favourable prognosis for a sizeable minority.

Therapeutic ultrasound for acute ankle sprains.

BACKGROUND: Ultrasound is used in the treatment of a wide variety of musculoskeletal disorders, which include acute ankle sprains. AIM: To evaluate the effects of ultrasound therapy in the treatment of acute ankle sprains. METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE until September 2010, CINAHL (until 2004), and PEDro (accessed 01/06/09). (Quasi)-randomised trials were included if the following conditions were met: at least one study group was treated with therapeutic ultrasound; participants had acute lateral ankle sprains; and outcome measures included general improvement, pain, swelling, functional disability, or range of motion. Risk ratios and risk differences with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for dichotomous outcomes and mean differences with 95% confidence intervals for continuous outcome measures. Limited pooling of data was undertaken where there was clinical homogeneity in terms of participants, treatments, outcomes, and follow-up time points. RESULTS: Six trials were included, involving 606 participants. Five trials included comparisons of ultrasound therapy with sham ultrasound; and three trials included single comparisons of ultrasound with three other treatments. None of the five placebo-controlled trials (sham ultrasound) demonstrated differences between true and sham ultrasound therapy for any outcome measure at one to four weeks of follow-up. The pooled risk ratio for general improvement at one week was 1.04 (random-effects model, 95% confidence interval 0.92 to 1.17) for active versus sham ultrasound. The differences between intervention groups were generally small, between 0% and 6%, for most dichotomous outcomes. CONCLUSION: The evidence from the five small placebo-controlled trials included in this review does not support the use of ultrasound in the treatment of acute ankle sprains. The potential treatment effects of ultrasound appear to be generally small and probably of limited clinical importance, especially in the context of the short-term recovery period in most people with these injuries. However, the available evidence is insufficient to rule out the possibility that there is an optimal dosage schedule for ultrasound therapy that may be of benefit.

Inflammatory bowel disease: a systematic review on the value of diagnostic testing in primary care.

AIM: The clinical presentation of inflammatory bowel disease in primary care represents a diagnostic challenge as its symptoms are heterogeneous and common. To assist the primary care physician, we have summarized the available evidence on diagnostic tests in patients with abdominal symptoms. METHOD: We searched PubMed and Embase and screened references. Studies were selected if the design was a primary diagnostic study. Patients were adults attending with nonacute abdominal symptoms. Tests included clinical assessment, blood or faecal tests or abdominal ultrasonography. Quality assessment using a modified version of the QUADAS tool and data extraction was performed by two reviewers independently. Diagnostic two-by-two tables and pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity are given. We refrained from pooling when there was considerable clinical or statistical heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total of 24 studies were included. While the diagnostic performance of the individual symptoms was highly variable (range sensitivity 0.0-0.96, specificity 0.09-1.0), the performance of symptom-based classification systems was both more consistent and better (sensitivity 0.65-1.0, specificity 0.17-0.82). Among faecal and blood tests, calprotectin was studied most frequently and showed the best results (sensitivity 0.61-1.0, specificity 0.71-1.0). Statistical pooling for ultrasonography resulted in a sensitivity of 0.73 (0.65-0.80) and a specificity of 0.95 (0.91-0.97). CONCLUSION: Although calprotectin and ultrasonography showed consistent and promising findings, none of the studies was performed in primary care. To assist primary care physicians in diagnostic decision making, we urgently need high quality studies performed in primary care.

Semi-standardised homeopathic treatment of premenstrual syndrome with a limited number of medicines: feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Individualised homeopathy involves a large number of possible medicines. For clinical research purposes it is desirable to limit this number, create more consistency between prescribers and optimising the accuracy of prescription. Using a semi-standardised treatment protocol, we aimed to improve homeopathic management of targeted subgroups of women with premenstrual syndrome/symptoms (PMS/S). OBJECTIVES: To design a semi-standardised protocol for individualised prescribing in PMS/S with a limited number of homeopathic medicines, and to explore the feasibility of working with it in daily homeopathic practice. METHODS: With help of an expert panel, homeopathic medicines were selected, as well as predictive symptoms and characteristics (keynotes) for each medicine. With those, we designed a patient questionnaire and a diagnostic algorithm. The patient questionnaire contained 123 questions, representing potential predictive symptoms for 11 homeopathic medicines for PMS/S. The medicines selected (in rank order) were Sep, Nat-m, Lach, Cimic, Lac-c, Puls, Calc, Lil-t, Mag-p, Mag-c, Phos. In a feasibility study 20 homeopathic doctors used the protocol in daily practice. The diagnosis was confirmed by daily rating of pre-defined symptoms during two consecutive menstrual cycles. The acceptability and feasibility of the protocol were evaluated after 3 months follow-up, at which time we also measured changes in premenstrual symptom scores and patient-reported changes in symptoms and general health. RESULTS: The doctors mostly complied with the protocol and valued the computerised diagnostic algorithm as a useful tool for homeopathic medicine selection. 33 patients completed 3 months follow-up. By then, 19 patients still taking the first medicine on the basis of the algorithm. We received valid symptom records of 30 patients. Premenstrual symptom scores dropped by 50% or more in 12 patients and by 30-50% in 6 patients; scores dropped by less than 30% or increased in 12 patients. Recruitment of patients (n=38 in 9 months) proved difficult. Adherence to the diaries and the questionnaire was satisfactory. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to use a semi-standardised protocol for individualised homeopathic prescribing in PMS, in daily practice. Its predictive value and the percentage of women with PMS/S helped by the selected medicines remain to be evaluated in further research. In future research, active promotion will be needed to recruit patients.

Lactose malabsorption and intolerance: a systematic review on the diagnostic value of gastrointestinal symptoms and self-reported milk intolerance.

BACKGROUND: When lactose malabsorption gives rise to symptoms, the result is called 'lactose intolerance'. Although lactose intolerance is often bothersome for patients, once recognized it may be managed by simple dietary adjustments. However, diagnosing lactose intolerance is not straightforward, especially in primary care. AIM: To summarize available evidence on the diagnostic performance of gastrointestinal symptoms and self-reported milk (lactose) intolerance in primary care, and the relationship between lactose malabsorption and intolerance. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, EMBASE and reference screening. STUDY SELECTION: Studies were selected if the design was a primary diagnostic study; the patients were adults consulting because of non-acute abdominal symptoms; the diagnostic test included gastrointestinal symptoms and/or self-reported milk intolerance. A total of 26 primary diagnostic studies were included in the review. DATA EXTRACTION: Quality assessment and data extraction were performed by two reviewers independently. They adhered to the most recent guidelines for conducting a diagnostic review as described in the Cochrane Diagnostic Reviewers' Handbook. RESULTS: The diagnostic performance of diarrhea, abdominal pain, bloating, flatulence and self-reported milk intolerance was highly variable. A non-Caucasian ethnic origin was associated with the presence of lactose malabsorption. Both lactose malabsorbers and lactose absorbers reported symptoms during the lactose hydrogen breath test. CONCLUSION: Our review shows that high-quality studies on the diagnosis of lactose malabsorption and intolerance in primary care are urgently needed. An important prerequisite would be to clearly define the concept of lactose intolerance, as well as how it should be assessed.

What is the prognosis of back pain?

Understanding prognosis is important in managing low back pain. In this article, we discuss the available evidence on low back pain prognosis and describe how prognostic evidence can be used to inform clinical decision making. We describe three main types of related prognosis questions: 'What is the most likely course?' (Course studies); 'What factors are associated with, or determine, outcome?' (Prognostic factor or explanatory studies); and 'Can we identify risk groups who are likely to have different outcomes?' (Risk group or outcome prediction studies). Most low back pain episodes are mild and rarely disabling, with only a small proportion of individuals seeking care. Among those presenting for care, there is variability in outcome according to patient characteristics. Most new episodes recover within a few weeks. However, recurrences are common and individuals with chronic, long-standing low back pain tend to show a more persistent course. Studies of mixed primary care populations indicate 60-80% of health-care consulters will continue to have pain after a year. Important low back pain prognostic factors are related to the back pain episode, the individual and psychological characteristics, as well as the work and social environment. Although numerous studies have developed prediction models in the field, most models/tools explain less than 50% of outcome variability and few have been tested in independent samples. We discuss limitations and future directions for research in the area of low back pain prognosis.