Profits First, Health Second: The Pharmaceutical Industry and the Global South Comment on "More Pain, More Gain! The Delivery of COVID-19 Vaccines and the Pharmaceutical Industry's Role in Widening the Access Gap".

The pharmaceutical industry has a long history of prioritizing the research and sale of medicines that will yield the largest amount of revenue and placing the health of people second. This gap is especially prevalent in countries of the Global South. This article first explores the dichotomy in research between the Global North and the Global South and then looks at examples of how access to key medicines used in diseases such as HIV, oncology and hepatitis C is limited in the latter group of countries. The role of pharmaceutical companies during the COVID-19 pandemic prompted negotiations for a pandemic accord that would ensure more equity in both research and access when the next pandemic comes. However, efforts by a combination of the pharmaceutical industry and some high-income countries (HICs) are creating serious obstacles to achieving the goal of an accord that would place health over profits.

The Greenhouse gas Observations of Biospheric and Local Emissions from the Upper sky (GOBLEU): a mission overview, instrument description, and results from the first flight.

BACKGROUND: The Greenhouse gas Observations of Biospheric and Local Emissions from the Upper sky (GOBLEU) is a new joint project by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and ANA HOLDING INC. (ANAHD), which operates ANA flights. GOBLEU aims to visualizes our climate mitigation effort progress in support of subnational climate mitigation by collecting greenhouse gas (GHG) data as well as relevant data for emissions (nitrous dioxide, NO2) and removals (Solar-Induced Fluorescence, SIF) from regular passenger flights. We developed a luggage-sized instrument based on the space remote-sensing techniques that JAXA has developed for Japan's Greenhouse gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The instrument can be conveniently installed on a coach-class passenger seat without modifying the seat or the aircraft. RESULTS: The first GOBLEU observation was made on the flight from the Tokyo Haneda Airport to the Fukuoka Airport, with only the NO2 module activated. The collected high-spatial-resolution NO2 data were compared to that from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite and surface NO2 data from ground-based air quality monitoring stations. While GOBLEU and TROPOMI data shared the major concentration patterns largely driven by cities and large point sources, regardless of different observation times, we found fine-scale concentration pattern differences, which might be an indication of potential room for GOBLEU to bring in new emission information and thus is worth further examination. We also characterized the levels of NO2 spatial correlation that change over time. The quickly degrading correlation level of GOBLEU and TROPOMI suggests a potentially significant impact of the time difference between CO2 and NO2 as an emission marker and, thus, the significance of co-located observations planned by future space missions. CONCLUSIONS: GOBLEU proposes aircraft-based, cost-effective, frequent monitoring of greenhouse emissions by GOBLEU instruments carried on regular passenger aircraft. Theoretically, the GOBLEU instrument can be installed and operated in most commercially used passenger aircraft without modifications. JAXA and ANAHD wish to promote the observation technique by expanding the observation coverage and partnership to other countries by enhancing international cooperation under the Paris Agreement.

Evaluation of mean corpuscular volume among anemic people with HIV in North America following ART initiation.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is common and associated with increased morbidity among people with HIV (PWH). Classification of anemia using the mean corpuscular volume (MCV) can help investigate the underlying causative factors of anemia. We characterize anemia using MCV among PWH receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), and identify the risk factors for normocytic, macrocytic, and microcytic anemias. METHODS: Including PWH with anemia (hemoglobin measure < 12.9 g/dL among men and < 11.9 g/dL among women) in the NA-ACCORD from 01/01/2007 to 12/31/2017, we estimated the annual distribution of normocytic (80-100 femtolitre (fL)), macrocytic (> 100 fL) or microcytic (< 80 fL) anemia based on the lowest hemoglobin within each year. Poisson regression models with robust variance and general estimating equations were used to estimate crude and adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk factors for macrocytic (vs. normocytic) and microcytic (vs. normocytic) anemia stratified by sex. RESULTS: Among 37,984 hemoglobin measurements that identified anemia in 14,590 PWH, 27,909 (74%) were normocytic, 4257 (11%) were microcytic, and 5818 (15%) were macrocytic. Of the anemic PWH included over the study period, 1910 (13%) experienced at least one measure of microcytic anemia and 3208 (22%) at least one measure of macrocytic anemia. Normocytic anemia was most common among both males and females, followed by microcytic among females and macrocytic among males. Over time, the proportion of anemic PWH who have macrocytosis decreased while microcytosis increased. Macrocytic (vs. normocytic) anemia is associated with increasing age and comorbidities. With increasing age, microcytic anemia decreased among females but not males. A greater proportion of PWH with normocytic anemia had CD4 counts ≤ 200 cells/mm3 and had recently initiated ART. CONCLUSION: In anemic PWH, normocytic anemia was most common. Over time macrocytic anemia decreased, and microcytic anemia increased irrespective of sex. Normocytic anemia is often due to chronic disease and may explain the greater risk for normocytic anemia among those with lower CD4 counts or recent ART initiation. Identified risk factors for type-specific anemias including sex, age, comorbidities, and HIV factors, can help inform targeted investigation into the underlying causes.

Effective Infodemic Management: A Substantive Article of the Pandemic Accord.

Social media has proven to be valuable for disseminating public health information during pandemics. However, the circulation of misinformation through social media during public health emergencies, such as the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), Ebola, and COVID-19 pandemics, has seriously hampered effective responses, leading to negative consequences. Intentionally misleading and deceptive fake news aims to harm organizations and individuals. To effectively respond to misinformation, governments should strengthen the management of an "infodemic," which involves monitoring the impact of infodemics through social listening, detecting signals of infodemic spread, mitigating the harmful effects of infodemics, and strengthening the resilience of individuals and communities. The global spread of misinformation requires multisectoral collaboration, such as researchers identifying leading sources of misinformation and superspreaders, media agencies identifying and debunking misinformation, technology platforms reducing the distribution of false or misleading posts and guiding users to health information from credible sources, and governments disseminating clear public health information in partnership with trusted messengers. Additionally, fact-checking has room for improvement through the use of automated checks. Collaboration between governments and fact-checking agencies should also be strengthened via effective and timely debunking mechanisms. Though the Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB) has yet to define the term "infodemic," Article 18 of the INB Bureau's text, developed for the Pandemic Accord, encompasses a range of actions aimed at enhancing infodemic management. The INB Bureau continues to facilitate evidence-informed discussion for an implementable article on infodemic management.

Effects of intensive blood pressure lowering in patients with diabetes: A pooled analysis of the STEP and ACCORD-BP randomized trials.

AIM: To determine whether intensive systolic blood pressure (SBP) lowering can benefit hypertensive patients with diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a pooled analysis of individual patient data from two randomized trials to compare intensive and standard SBP targets in hypertensive patients with diabetes (STEP diabetes subgroup and ACCORD-BP standard glycaemic group, n = 1627 and n = 2362, respectively). We defined a modified primary outcome as a composite of stroke, major coronary artery disease (myocardial infarction and unstable angina), heart failure, and cardiovascular death. The secondary outcomes were individual components of the primary outcome and death from any cause. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used in the main analysis. We conducted one-stage mixed-effect models and two-stage analyses as sensitivity and supplementary analyses to verify the robustness of the findings. RESULTS: A total of 3989 patients were randomized to undergo intensive (n = 1984) or standard SBP treatment (n = 2005). After a median follow-up of 3.83 years, the primary outcome occurred in 193/1984 patients in the intensive group and in 247/2005 patients in the standard group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.93). The incidence rates for secondary outcomes were lower in the intensive group than in the standard group, but were not significantly different, except for stroke (intensive vs. standard: 32/1984 vs. 58/2005; HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.36-0.86). These results remained consistent in the additional sensitivity and supplementary analyses. CONCLUSIONS: An intensive SBP-lowering target of 110 to <130 mmHg reduces the cardiovascular outcomes compared with a standard SBP-lowering target of 130 to <150 mmHg. The findings of this study support the favourable effects of intensive SBP lowering in hypertensive patients with diabetes.

A machine learning approach identifies modulators of heart failure hospitalization prevention among patients with type 2 diabetes: A revisit to the ACCORD trial.

BACKGROUND: To examine patient characteristics that may modulate the heterogeneous treatment effect of intensive systolic blood pressure control (SBP) and intensive glycemic control on incident heart failure (HF) risk in people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We analyzed 10,251 participants from the ACCORD glucose trial, and 4733 from the SBP sub-trial separately. We applied a robust machine-learning (ML) algorithm, namely the causal forest/causal tree analysis, to each trial to identify participants' characteristics that modulate the effectiveness of each trial intervention. RESULTS: Diastolic blood pressure (DBP) was found to interact with intensive glycemic control and impact outcomes. An increased HF risk associated with intensive glycemic control (absolute risk change (ARC): 2.28 %, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.69 % to 3.90 %; relative risk (RR):1.57, 95 % CI: 1.15 to 2.20; P < 0.05) was observed in individuals with baseline DBP at the lowest tertile (45-69 mmHg), while no changes in HF risk associated with intensive glycemic control were observed in individuals with baseline DBP at the middle (70-79 mmHg) and the highest tertiles (80-100 mmHg). Liver function was identified as a modulator of intensive BP control, and baseline Alanine transaminase (ALT) level was a sensitive marker for the modulating effect. Only individuals with baseline ALT at the lowest tertile (8-19 mg/dl) benefited from the intensive BP control for HF prevention (ARC: -1.95 %, 95 % CI: -4.06 % to 0.11 %; RR:0.62. 95 % CI: 0.27 to 0.94; P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our study is the first to observe and quantify the potential synergistic harmful effect when low DBP was combined with an intensive blood glucose intervention. Recognizing these may help clinicians develop a more precise approach to such treatments, thus increasing the efficiency and outcomes of diabetes treatments.

Heterogeneity of Treatment Effects for Intensive Blood Pressure Therapy by Individual Components of FRS: An Unsupervised Data-Driven Subgroup Analysis in SPRINT and ACCORD.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have answered the guiding significance of individual components of the Framingham risk score (FRS) to the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) after antihypertensive treatment. This study on the systolic blood pressure intervention trial (SPRINT) and the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes blood pressure trial (ACCORD-BP) aimed to reveal previously undetected association patterns between individual components of the FRS and heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTEs) of intensive blood pressure control. METHODS: A self-organizing map (SOM) methodology was applied to identify CVD-risk-specific subgroups in the SPRINT (n = 8,773), and the trained SOM was utilized directly in 4,495 patients from the ACCORD. The primary endpoints were myocardial infarction (MI), non-myocardial infarction acute coronary syndrome (non-MI ACS), stroke, heart failure (HF), death from CVD causes, and a primary composite cardiovascular outcome. Cox proportional hazards models were then used to explore the potential heterogeneous response to intensive SBP control. RESULTS: We identified four SOM-based subgroups with distinct individual components of FRS profiles and the CVD risk. For individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the ACCORD or without diabetes in the SPRINT, subgroup I characterized by male with the lowest concentrations for total cholesterol (TC) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol measures, experienced the highest risk for major CVD. Conversely, subgroup III characterized by a female with the highest values for these measures represented as the lowest CVD risk. Furthermore, subgroup II, with the highest systolic blood pressure (SBP) and no antihypertensive agent use at baseline, had a significantly greater frequency of non-MI ACS under intensive BP control, the number needed to harm (NNH) was 84.24 to cause 1 non-MI ACS [absolute risk reduction (ARR) = -1.19%; 95% CI: -2.08, -0.29%] in the SPRINT [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.62; 95% CI: 1.33, 9.81; P = 0.012], and the NNH of was 43.19 to cause 1 non-MI ACS (ARR = -2.32%; 95% CI: -4.63, 0.00%) in the ACCORD (HR = 1.81; 95% CI: 1.01-3.25; P = 0.046). Finally, subgroup IV characterized by mostly younger patients with antihypertensive medication use and smoking history represented the lowest risk for stroke, HF, and relatively low risk for death from CVD causes and primary composite CVD outcome in SPRINT, however, except stroke, a low risk for others were not observed in ACCORD. CONCLUSION: Similar findings in patients with hypertensive with T2DM or without diabetes by multivariate subgrouping suggested that the individual components of the FRS could enrich or improve CVD risk assessment. Further research was required to clarify the potential mechanism.

Prognostic significance of visit-to-visit variability, and maximum and minimum LDL cholesterol in diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines for dyslipidemia management recommend that the LDL-C goal be lower than 70 mg/dL. The present study investigated the prognostic significance of visit-to-visit variability in LDL-C, and minimum and maximum LDL-C during follow-up in diabetes mellitus. METHODS: The risk of outcomes in relation to visit-to-visit LDL-C variability was investigated in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) Lipid trial. LDL-C variability indices were coefficient of variation (CV), variability independent of the mean (VIM), and average real variability (ARV). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were employed to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Compared with the placebo group (n=2667), the fenofibrate therapy group (n=2673) had a significantly (P<0.01) lower mean plasma triglyceride (152.5 vs. 178.6 mg/dL), and total cholesterol (158.3 vs.162.9 mg/dL) but a similar mean LDL-C during follow-up (88.2 vs. 88.6 mg/dL, P>0.05). All three variability indices were associated with primary outcome, total mortality and cardiovascular mortality both in the total population and in the fenofibrate therapy group but only with primary outcome in the placebo group. The minimum LDL-C but not the maximum during follow-up was significantly associated with various outcomes in the total population, fenofibrate therapy and placebo group. The minimum LDL-C during follow-up ≥70 mg/dL was associated with an increased risk for various outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Visit-to-visit variability in LDL-C was a strong predictor of outcomes, independent of mean LDL-C. Patients with LDL-C controlled to less than 70 mg/dL during follow-up might have a benign prognosis. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT00000620.

Accuracy of body composition measurement techniques across the age span.

This study investigated the acceptable accuracy of common body composition techniques compared with the reference 4-compartment (4C-R) model, which has not been investigated in a sample with diverse characteristics, including age and sex. Techniques included components of the 4C-R model [dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, air displacement plethysmography, deuterium dilution (DD)] and surrogate compartment models, which utilised bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy (BIS) rather than DD. Men and women (sex = 1:1, 18-85 years, n = 90) completed body composition testing under best-practice guidance. For measurement of individuals, only the reference 3-compartment (3C-R) equation met acceptable error limits (<5% error among individuals) within the a priori cut-point (80%) for fat-free mass (FFM; CV = 0.52%) and fat mass (FM; CV = 1.61%). However, all investigated techniques reached equivalency to the 4C-R model for FFM on average (CV = 0.52-4.31%), but for FM only the 3C and 4C equations that included quantification of total body water (TBW) by DD or BIS reached equivalency overall (CV = 1.61-6.68%). Sex and age minimally influenced accuracy. Only the 3C-R or 4C-R equations are supported for acceptable individual accuracy for both FFM and FM. For group estimates any investigated technique could be used with acceptable accuracy for FFM; however, for FM, inclusion of TBW measurement within a compartment model is necessary. Novelty: Only the referent 3C and 4C models (including deuterium dilution) provide accurate body composition results that are acceptable for measurement of individuals in the general population. For group estimates of lean mass in the general population, compartments models that include TBW must be used for accurate measurement.

Generalizability of heterogeneous treatment effects based on causal forests applied to two randomized clinical trials of intensive glycemic control.

Purpose Machine learning is an attractive tool for identifying heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) of interventions but generalizability of machine learning derived HTE remains unclear. We examined generalizability of HTE detected using causal forests in two similarly designed randomized trials in type II diabetes patients. Methods We evaluated published HTE of intensive versus standard glycemic control on all-cause mortality from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes study (ACCORD) in a second trial, the Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial (VADT). We then applied causal forests to VADT, ACCORD, and pooled data from both studies and compared variable importance and subgroup effects across samples. Results HTE in ACCORD did not replicate in similar subgroups in VADT, but variable importance was correlated between VADT and ACCORD (Kendall's tau-b 0.75). Applying causal forests to pooled individual-level data yielded seven subgroups with similar HTE across both studies, ranging from risk difference of all-cause mortality of -3.9% (95% CI -7.0, -0.8) to 4.7% (95% CI 1.8, 7.5). Conclusions Machine learning detection of HTE subgroups from randomized trials may not generalize across study samples even when variable importance is correlated. Pooling individual-level data may overcome differences in study populations and/or differences in interventions that limit HTE generalizability.

Association of vitamin and/or nutritional supplements with fall among patients with diabetes: A prospective study based on ACCORD and UK Biobank.

Aims: To assess the associations of vitamin and/or nutritional supplements (VNS) with falls among patients with diabetes. Methods: 9,141 and 21,489 middle-aged participants with diabetes from Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial and UK Biobank were included. Use of VNS was collected at baseline, and fall events were recorded using annual questionnaires in ACCORD and electric records in UK Biobank during follow-up. The associations of VNS use with fall risk were analyzed using logistic regression models in ACCORD and Fine-Gray sub-distribution hazard models in UK Biobank. The role of specific supplements was also estimated in UK Biobank, adjusting for confounding factors and multiple comparisons. Results: 45.9% (4,193/9,141, 5.5 median follow-up years) patients in ACCORD and 10.5% (2,251/21,489, 11.9 median follow-up years) in UK Biobank experienced fall and in-patient events during follow-up, respectively. In ACCORD, VNS using was associated with an increased risk of fall (full-adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.26, P < 0.05). In UK Biobank, despite no significant association between VNS overall and in-patient fall, vitamin B, calcium, and iron using increased the risk of falls significantly (full-adjusted hazard ratio range: 1.31-1.37, P < 0.05). Conclusions: Use of specific VNS increased the risk of fall among patients with diabetes. The non-indicative use of nutritional supplements for patients with diabetes might be inadvisable.

Association Between Long-Term Visit-to-Visit Hemoglobin A1c and Cardiovascular Risk in Type 2 Diabetes: The ACCORD Trial.

Background: To explore the association between visit-to-visit variability of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and cardiovascular outcomes in the patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) of the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study. Methods: We conducted a post-hoc analysis on the ACCORD population including 9,544 participants with T2DM. Visit-to-visit variability of HbA1c was defined as the individual SD, coefficient of variation (CV), and variability independent of the mean (VIM) across HbA1c measurements. The clinical measurements included primary outcome [the first occurrence of non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), non-fatal stroke or cardiovascular death], total mortality, cardiovascular death, non-fatal MI event, non-fatal stroke, total stroke, heart failure, macrovascular events, and major coronary events (CHD). Results: Over a median follow-up of 4.85 years, 594 and 268 participants experienced all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. After adjusting for baseline HbA1c levels and confounding factors, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) comparing patients in the highest vs. the lowest quartile CV of HbA1c variability was 1.61 (95% CI 1.29-2.00) for the primary outcome. Similar trends for secondary outcome were also observed. There was no association between HbA1c fluctuation and non-fatal stroke. Noticeably, there was 66% greater risk for the all-cause mortality among patients in the highest vs. the lowest quartile (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.27-2.17). Conclusions: Greater variability of HbA1c is associated with higher risk for cardiovascular complications and all-cause death in T2DM. Our study stresses the significance of well-controlled glycemic levels for improving cardiovascular outcomes. Further randomized clinical trials are required to confirm these findings.

HbA1c trajectory and cardiovascular outcomes: an analysis of data from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the associations between glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) trajectories and cardiovascular outcomes using data from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study. METHODS: We used HbA1c values within the first 2 years of treatment for modeling with a latent class growth model. Groups of HbA1c trajectories were modeled separately in the standard (group 1-group 4) and intensive (group 5-group 8) treatment arms. The primary outcome in the ACCORD study was a composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes. Effects of HbA1c trajectories on cardiovascular outcomes were analyzed using a Cox-proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Baseline HbA1c levels for the eight trajectories (group 1-group 8) were 7.8 ± 0.8, 8.2 ± 0.9, 9.3 ± 1.1, 9.6 ± 1.2, 7.8 ± 0.7, 10.1 ± 0.8, 8.3 ± 0.7, and 9.5 ± 1.1%, respectively. The respective values after 2 years of treatment were 7.0 ± 0.6, 7.7 ± 0.7, 8.5 ± 0.9, 10.3 ± 1.3, 6.2 ± 0.4, 6.5 ± 0.6, 7.2 ± 0.6, and 8.5 ± 1.1%. After a median follow-up of 4.8 years, group 5 and group 6 had similar outcomes compared with group 1 (reference group). In contrast, group 3, group 4, and group 8 had higher risks of the primary composite outcome compared with group 1. CONCLUSION: HbA1c trajectory was associated with cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes patients with high cardiovascular risk.

The "Cairo Accord"- Towards the Eradication of RHD: An Update.

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children and young adults. It continues to be prevalent in many low- and middle-income countries where it causes significant morbidity and mortality. Following the 2017 Cairo conference "Rheumatic Heart Disease: from Molecules to the Global Community," experts from 21 countries formulated an approach for addressing the problem of RHD: "The Cairo Accord on Rheumatic Heart Disease." The Accord attempts to set policy priorities for the eradication of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and RHD and builds on a recent series of policy initiatives and calls to action. We present an update on the recommendations of the Cairo Accord and discuss recent progress toward the eradication of RHD, including contributions from our own Aswan Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (ARGI).

Health-related quality of life of a conflict-affected population in Colombia.

PURPOSE: We assessed the validity of the EQ-5D instrument; explored correlations between area of residence's conflict intensity and individual health-related quality of life (HRQoL); and identified factors associated with HRQoL in a conflict-affected population in Colombia. METHODS: We conducted a household survey among residents of the Meta province, collecting longitudinal information about HRQoL (EQ-5D-3L instrument), health, demographic and socio-economic indicators, for years 2014 (pre-2016 peace accord), 2018 (post-peace accord) and 2019 (follow-up). After examining EQ-5D's validity, we analysed panel data using multivariate random effects models to explore associations between area conflict levels (and other factors) and HRQoL. We scrutinised these results further through multivariate linear regressions using cross-sectional data, and provided preliminary estimates of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained since the Colombian peace accord. RESULTS: In total, 1309 individuals provided information for years 2014 and 2018; 1106 individuals were followed-up in 2019. Mean EQ-5D scores in 2014, 2018 and 2019 were 0.898, 0.846 and 0.902, respectively. The tests confirmed the validity of EQ-5D. Our estimations indicated a dose-response relationship between conflict levels and HRQoL: people in lightly and heavily affected areas had 0.019 and 0.037 lower EQ-5D scores (respectively) than people in non-affected areas. Other relevant factors included age, marital status, education, assets and health status. We estimated QALY gain of 0.0343 per individual and 20,752 for all Meta adults since the peace accord. CONCLUSION: We found EQ-5D to be a valid instrument for HRQoL measurement in a conflict-affected population. Area conflict intensity was negatively associated with individual HRQoL.

A light of hope? Inequalities in mental health before and after the peace agreement in Colombia: a decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: The present study seeks to evaluate the change in mental health inequalities in the department of Meta after the signing of Colombia's Peace Agreement in 2016 with the FARC guerrilla group. Using a validated survey instrument composed of 20 questions ('SRQ-20'), we measure changes in mental health inequalities from 2014, before the signing of the agreement, to 2018, after the signing. We then decompose the changes in inequalities to establish which socioeconomic factors explain differences in mental health inequalities over time. METHODS: Our study uses information from the Conflicto, Salud y Paz (CONPAS) survey conducted in the department of Meta, Colombia, in 1309 households in 2018, with retrospective information for 2014. To measure inequalities, we calculate the concentration indices for both years. Through the Oaxaca change decomposition method, we disaggregate changes in mental health inequalities into its underlying factors. This method allows us to explain the relationship between changes in mental health inequalities and changes in inequalities in several sociodemographic factors. It also identifies the extent to which these factors help explain the changes in mental health inequalities. RESULTS: Mental health inequalities in Meta were reduced almost by half from 2014 to 2018. In 2018, the population at the lower and middle socioeconomic levels had fewer chances of experiencing mental health disorders in comparison to 2014. The reduction in mental health differences is mostly attributed to reductions in the influence of certain sociodemographic variables, such as residence in rural zones and conflict-affected territories, working in the informal sector, or experiencing internal displacement. However, even though mental health inequalities have diminished, overall mental health outcomes have worsened in these years. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in the contribution of conflict-related variables for explaining mental health inequalities could mean that the negative consequences of conflict on mental health have started to diminish in the short run after the peace agreement. Nevertheless, conflict and the presence of other socioeconomic inequalities still contribute to persistent adverse mental health outcomes in the overall population. Thus, public policy should be oriented towards improving mental health care services in these territories, given the post-accord context.

Prediction of heart failure outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: Validation of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score for Heart Failure in Diabetes (TRS-HFDM ) in patients in the ACCORD trial.

AIM: To investigate the ability of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score for Heart Failure in Diabetes (TRS-HFDM ) to stratify patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and high cardiovascular risk for heart failure (HF) hospitalization. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from the control group of the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes Study Group (ACCORD) trial (n = 5123; mean follow-up 4.8 years). The TRS-HFDM includes: prior HF (2 points), atrial fibrillation (1 point), coronary artery disease (1 point), estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (1 point), and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (>300 mg/g: 2 points; 30-300 mg/g: 1 point). We evaluated the discrimination (Harrell's C-index) and calibration (Nam-D'Agostino calibration statistic) of the TRS-HFDM with regard to time to HF hospitalization or death due to HF. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 62.8 ± 6.6 years, and 38% were women. The prevalences of TRS-HFDM 0, 1, 2, 3 and ≥4 were 42.1%, 34.9%, 14.6%, 6.0% and 2.5%, respectively. Increasing TRS-HFDM corresponded to an increasing HF risk: 1.3 per 1000 person-years for a TRS-HFDM of 0 to 64.7 per 1000 person-years for TRS-HFDM of ≥4. The TRS-HFDM demonstrated robust discrimination of HF outcomes (C-index 0.78). Furthermore, the score was well calibrated for HF outcomes (calibration statistic P = 0.13). Similar results were seen in participants without baseline HF (C-index 0.75). CONCLUSION: The TRS-HFDM discriminates HF-specific risk among people with T2DM. The use of TRS-HFDM to identify those who would maximally benefit from therapies that reduce HF risk warrants evaluation.

Examination of the confounding effect of subcutaneous fat on muscle echo intensity utilizing exogenous fat.

We aimed to provide an unbiased estimate of the confounding effect of subcutaneous fat thickness on ultrasound echo intensity (EI) measures of muscle quality. The effect of fat thickness on EI was verified for an approximate range of 0 to 3 cm of fat using exogeneous layers of pork fat over the human tibialis anterior muscle. Sonograms were obtained (i) with focus constant across fat thickness conditions, and (ii) with focus position adjusted to the muscle region of interest (ROI) position for each fat thickness level. In agreement with our hypothesis, increasing fat between the probe and the ROI resulted in a decrease in EI. This overestimating effect of fat on muscle quality differs between sonograms with constant focus and sonograms with focus position adjusted to the vertical displacement in ROI position that occurs for different levels of fat thickness. Correcting equations to account for the overestimating effect of fat on muscle quality are provided for both focus conditions. This is the first study to systematically analyze the confounding effect of fat thickness as an independent factor and the provided equations can be used for improved accuracy in estimates of muscle quality in obese/overweight subjects/patients. Novelty: The independent confounding effect of subcutaneous fat thickness on ultrasound (US) estimates of muscle quality was quantified. US estimates of muscle quality depend on whether focus is adjusted to the muscle region of interest or not. Equations for correcting muscle quality estimates are provided.