Assessing the Predictive Accuracy of the aMAP Risk Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC): Diagnostic Test Accuracy and Meta-analysis.

Purpose: We aimed to perform a meta-analysis with the intention of evaluating the reliability and test accuracy of the aMAP risk score in the identification of HCC. Methods: A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane, Embase, and Web of Science databases from inception to September 2023, to identify studies measuring the aMAP score in patients for the purpose of predicting the occurrence or recurrence of HCC. The meta-analysis was performed using the meta package in R version 4.1.0. The diagnostic accuracy meta-analysis was conducted using Meta-DiSc software. Results: Thirty-five studies 102,959 participants were included in the review. The aMAP score was significantly higher in the HCC group than in the non-HCC group, with a mean difference of 6.15. When the aMAP score is at 50, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, negative likelihood ratio, and positive likelihood ratio with 95% CI was 0.961 (95% CI 0.936, 0.976), 0.344 (95% CI 0.227, 0.483), 0.114 (95% CI 0.087, 0.15), and 1.464 (95% CI 1.22, 1.756), respectively. At a cutoff value of 60, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, negative likelihood ratio, and positive likelihood ratio with 95% CI was 0.594 (95% CI 0.492, 0.689), 0.816 (95% CI 0.714, 0.888), 0.497 (95% CI 0.418, 0.591), and 3.235 (95% CI 2.284, 4.582), respectively. Conclusion: The aMAP score is a reliable, accurate, and easy-to-use tool for predicting HCC patients of all stages, including early-stage HCC. Therefore, the aMAP score can be a valuable tool for surveillance of HCC patients and can help to improve early detection and reduce mortality.

Clinical Utility of the aMAP Score for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the aMAP score and compare it with other risk scores for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in Thai patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We retrospectively analyzed patients with CHB between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2019. Data on demographics, clinical parameters, cirrhosis status, HCC imaging, and alpha fetoprotein surveillance were collected to calculate the aMAP score (0-100) based on age, sex, albumin-bilirubin level, and platelet count. Of the 1060 patients analyzed, 789 were eligible, of whom 51 developed HCC. The cumulative HCC incidences in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups at 3, 5, and 10 years were significantly different (log-rank, p < 0.0001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the aMAP scores for predicting HCC at 3, 5, and 10 years were 0.748, 0.777, and 0.784, respectively. Among the risk scores, the CU-HCC score had the highest AUROCs (0.823) for predicting 5-year HCC development. The aMAP score is a valuable tool for predicting HCC risk in Thai patients with CHB and can enhance surveillance strategies. However, its performance is inferior to that of the CU-HCC score, suggesting the need for new predictive tools for HCC surveillance.

The Age-Male-Albumin-Bilirubin-Platelets (aMAP) Risk Score Predicts Liver Metastasis Following Surgery for Breast Cancer in Chinese Population: A Retrospective Study.

Objective: The current study is conducted to investigate the potential prognostic value of the age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets (aMAP) score in breast cancer patients with liver metastasis after surgery. Methods: This is a retrospective study of 178 breast cancer patients who developed liver metastasis after surgery. These patients were treated and followed up from 2000 to 2018 at our hospital. The aMAP risk score was estimated in accordance with the following formula: . The optimal cutoff value of the aMAP was evaluated via X-tile. Kaplan-Meier, Log-rank and Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to determine the clinical influence of the aMAP score on the survival outcomes. The nomogram models were established by multivariate analyses. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis were applied to evaluate the estimated performance of the nomogram models. Results: A total of 178 breast cancer patients were divided into low aMAP score group (<47.6) and high aMAP score group (≥47.6) via X-tile plots. The aMAP score was a potential prognostic factor in multivariate analysis. The median disease free survival (p=0.0013) and overall survival (p=0.0003) in low aMAP score group were longer than in high aMAP score group. The nomograms were constructed to predict the DFS with a C-index of 0.722 (95% CI, 0.673-0.771), and the OS with a C-index of 0.708 (95% CI, 0.661-0.755). The aMAP-based nomograms had good predictive performance. Conclusion: The aMAP score is a potential prognostic factor in breast cancer with liver metastasis after surgery. The aMAP score-based nomograms were conducive to discriminate patients at high risks of liver metastasis and develop adjuvant treatment and prevention strategies.

Effects of Aminomethylphosphonic Acid on the Transcriptome and Metabolome of Red Swamp Crayfish, Procambarus clarkii.

Red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii (P. clarkii), is an important model crustacean organism used in many types of research. However, the effects of different doses of aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMAP) on the transcriptome and metabolites of P. clarkii have not been explored. Thus, this study investigated the molecular and metabolic mechanisms activated at the different exposure dosages of AMAP in P. clarkii to provide new insights into the strategies of P. clarkii in response to the high concentrations of AMAP in the environment. In the present study, the P. clarkii were divided into three groups (control group; low-dosage AMAP exposure; high-dosage AMAP exposure), and hepatopancreatic tissue samples were dependently taken from the three groups. The response mechanisms at the different dosages of AMAP were investigated based on the transcriptome and metabolome data of P. clarkii. Differentially expressed genes and differentially abundant metabolites were identified in the distinct AMAP dosage exposure groups. The genes related to ribosome cell components were significantly up-regulated, suggesting that ribosomes play an essential role in responding to AMAP stress. The metabolite taurine, involved in the taurine and hypotaurine metabolism pathway, was significantly down-regulated. P. clarkii may provide feedback to counteract different dosages of AMAP via the upregulation of ribosome-related genes and multiple metabolic pathways. These key genes and metabolites play an important role in the response to AMAP stress to better prepare for survival in high AMAP concentrations.

Machine-learning model comprising five clinical indices and liver stiffness measurement can accurately identify MASLD-related liver fibrosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: aMAP score, as a hepatocellular carcinoma risk score, is proven to be associated with the degree of chronic hepatitis B-related liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the ability of aMAP score for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; formerly NAFLD)-related fibrosis diagnosis and establish a machine-learning (ML) model to improve the diagnostic performance. METHODS: A total of 946 biopsy-proved MASLD patients from China and the United States were included in the analysis. The aMAP score, demographic/clinical indices and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were included in seven ML algorithms to build fibrosis diagnostic models in the training set (N = 703). The performance of ML models was evaluated in the external validation set (N = 125). RESULTS: The AUROCs of aMAP versus fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio (APRI) in cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis were (0.850 vs. 0.857 [P = 0.734], 0.735 [P = 0.001]) and (0.759 vs. 0.795 [P = 0.027], 0.709 [P = 0.049]). When using dual cut-off values, aMAP had a smaller uncertainty area and higher accuracy (26.9%, 86.6%) than FIB-4 (37.3%, 85.0%) and APRI (59.0%, 77.3%) in cirrhosis diagnosis. The seven ML models performed satisfactorily in most cases. In the validation set, the ML model comprising LSM and 5 indices (including age, sex, platelets, albumin and total bilirubin used in aMAP calculator), built by logistic regression algorithm (called LSM-plus model), exhibited excellent performance. In cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis detection, the LSM-plus model had higher accuracy (96.8%, 91.2%) than LSM alone (86.4%, 67.2%) and Agile score (76.0%, 83.2%), respectively. Additionally, the LSM-plus model also displayed high specificity (cirrhosis: 98.3%; advanced fibrosis: 92.6%) with satisfactory AUROC (0.932, 0.875, respectively) and sensitivity (88.9%, 82.4%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The aMAP score is capable of diagnosing MASLD-related fibrosis. The LSM-plus model could accurately identify MASLD-related cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis.

eALT-F: A New Non-Invasive Staging Method to Identify Medium to High-Risk Patients with HCC from Ultra-High HBV Viral Load Population - China, 2010-2023.

Background: The objective of this study was to examine the clinical characteristics of individuals with ultra-high hepatitis B virus (HBV) viral load and develop a novel staging method for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) that can more effectively identify patients with medium to high hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. Methods: A total of 2,118 patients with HBV DNA >1×107 IU/mL who visited Peking University People's Hospital between January 2010 and March 2023 were enrolled retrospectively. Clinical data from the first visit were obtained and analyzed. The traditional phases and new 'eALT-F' stages were compared to evaluate the risk of HCC. Results: In the overall patients, more than one-third of the patients were under 30 years old. Additionally, a small proportion of older people (>60 years) also had ultra-high HBV viral load (4.3%). 9.1% and 6.7% of individuals with ultra-high HBV viral load showed FIB-4>3.25 and aMAP≥50, respectively. In the traditional stages of CHB, which are based on HBeAg and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) [the upper limit of normal (ULN) ALT level at 40 IU/L for both men and women], regardless of phase, a certain proportion of patients were at risk of developing HCC (4.1%, 6.4%, 25.0%, and 20.3%). However, in the new 'eALT-F' stages, which are based on HBeAg, ALT (the ULN of ALT level at 30 IU/L for men and 19 IU/L for women), and/or FIB-4 levels (>1.45), aMAP≥50 was only observed in chronic hepatitis patients with positive or negative HBeAg (6.4% and 22.1%, respectively). Conclusions: The 'eALT-F' staging method, based on HBeAg, ALT (males: the ULN of ALT was 30 IU/L, females: 19 IU/L) and/or FIB-4 levels, was more effective in identifying medium to high-risk patients with HCC from patients with ultra-high HBV viral load than the traditional staging methods.

ADP-Ribosylation Factor 6 Pathway Acts as a Key Executor of Mesenchymal Tumor Plasticity.

Despite the "big data" on cancer from recent breakthroughs in high-throughput technology and the development of new therapeutic modalities, it remains unclear as to how intra-tumor heterogeneity and phenotypic plasticity created by various somatic abnormalities and epigenetic and metabolic adaptations orchestrate therapy resistance, immune evasiveness, and metastatic ability. Tumors are formed by various cells, including immune cells, cancer-associated fibroblasts, and endothelial cells, and their tumor microenvironment (TME) plays a crucial role in malignant tumor progression and responses to therapy. ADP-ribosylation factor 6 (ARF6) and AMAP1 are often overexpressed in cancers, which statistically correlates with poor outcomes. The ARF6-AMAP1 pathway promotes the intracellular dynamics and cell-surface expression of various proteins. This pathway is also a major target for KRAS/TP53 mutations to cooperatively promote malignancy in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), and is closely associated with immune evasion. Additionally, this pathway is important in angiogenesis, acidosis, and fibrosis associated with tumor malignancy in the TME, and its inhibition in PDAC cells results in therapeutic synergy with an anti-PD-1 antibody in vivo. Thus, the ARF6-based pathway affects the TME and the intrinsic function of tumors, leading to malignancy. Here, we discuss the potential mechanisms of this ARF6-based pathway in tumorigenesis, and novel therapeutic strategies.

Tenofovir alafenamide and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate reduce incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Background & Aims: Antiviral therapy may attenuate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to explore how tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) affect HCC risk in patients with CHB. Methods: The REACH-B, aMAP, and mPAGE-B models were utilized to assess HCC risk in patients with CHB from two global randomized-controlled trials evaluating the impact of TAF vs. TDF treatment. Standard incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated using data from the REACH-B model as a ratio of observed HCC cases in the TAF- or TDF-treated patients vs. predicted HCC cases for untreated historical controls. Proportions of treated patients shifting aMAP and mPAGE-B risk categories between baseline and Week 240 were calculated. Results: Of the 1,632 patients (TAF, n = 1,093; TDF, n = 539) followed for up to 300 weeks, 22 HCC cases developed. Those receiving TAF had an SIR that was lower compared to the SIR of individuals receiving TDF: 0.32 (p <0.001) vs. 0.56 (p = 0.06). In the general study population, individuals without cirrhosis at baseline had an SIR that was lower compared to the SIR of individuals with cirrhosis at baseline: 0.37 (p <0.001) vs. 0.58 (p = 0.15). Of the patients at low risk of HCC at baseline, the majority (97%) remained low risk by mPAGE-B and aMAP scoring at Week 240. Among those at medium or high risk at baseline, substantial portions shifted to a lower risk category by Week 240 (mPAGE-B: 22% and 42%; aMAP: 39% and 63%, respectively). Conclusions: This evaluation provides evidence that treatment with TAF or TDF can reduce HCC risk in patients with CHB, particularly in patients without cirrhosis. Impact and implications: Despite the substantial impact of HCC on long-term outcomes of patients with CHB, the differential risk of HCC development among those receiving treatment with TAF vs. TDF has not been well elucidated. Using three validated risk prediction models, we found that TAF is at least as effective as TDF in reducing HCC risk in patients with CHB. While TDF is well-studied in the context of HCC risk reduction, our novel findings underscore the effectiveness of TAF as a treatment option for patients with CHB. Clinical trial numbers: NCT01940341; NCT02836249; NCT01940471; NCT02836236.

Risk-stratified approach by aMAP score for community population infected with hepatitis B and C to guide subsequent liver cancer screening practice: A cohort study with 10-year follow-up.

The aim of this study was to determine whether the age-Male-ALBI-Platelet (aMAP) score is applicable in community settings and how to maximise its role in risk stratification. A total of thousand five hundred and three participants had an aMAP score calculated at baseline and were followed up for about 10 years to obtain information on liver cancer incidence and death. After assessing the ability of aMAP to predict liver cancer incidence and death in terms of differentiation and calibration, the optimal risk stratification threshold of the aMAP score was explored, based on absolute and relative risks. The aMAP score achieved higher area under curves (AUCs) (almost all above 0.8) within 10 years and exhibited a better calibration within 5 years. Regarding absolute risk, the risk of incidence of and death from liver cancer showed a rapid increase after an aMAP score of 55. The cumulative incidence (5-year: 8.3% vs. 1.3% and 10-year: 20.9% vs. 3.6%) and mortality (5-year: 6.7% vs. 1.1% and 10-year: 17.5% vs. 3.1%) of liver cancer in individuals with an aMAP score of ≥55 were significantly higher than in those with a score of <55 (Grey's test p < .001). In terms of relative risk, the risk of death from liver cancer surpassed that from other causes after an aMAP score of ≥55 [HR = 1.38(1.02-1.87)]. Notably, the two types of death risk had opposite trends between the subpopulation with an aMAP score of ≥55 and < 55. To conclude, this study showed the value of the aMAP score in community settings and recommends using 55 as a new risk stratification threshold to guide subsequent liver cancer screening.

Usefulness of aMAP Risk Score for Predicting Recurrence after Curative Treatment for Hepatocellular Carcinoma within Milan Criteria.

INTRODUCTION: The aMAP score is a prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis patients. This study was conducted to elucidate the utility of this model for predicting initial recurrence of HCC in patients within the Milan criteria after undergoing curative treatment. METHODS: Patients with naïve HCC within the Milan criteria (n = 1,020) and treated from January 2000 to August 2022 were enrolled. The cohort was divided into two groups according to the aMAP score (high ≥60, low <60) and then compared for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Comparisons between the high and low groups showed that etiology (HBV:HCV:HBV+HCV:NBNC = 41:79:2:37 vs. 65:589:11:196, p < 0.001), AST (36 vs. 46 IU/L, p < 0.001), and multiple HCC occurrence (15% vs. 22%, p = 0.026) were significantly different. Additionally, median RFS (59.8 vs. 30.9 months; p < 0.001) and median OS (154.1 vs. 83.4 months, p < 0.01) were greater in the low group. As for patients with HCC due to chronic viral hepatitis, there was a significant difference in median RFS between the groups (59.8 vs. 30.6 months, p < 0.001), especially for HCV-positive patients (53.1 vs. 27.2 months, p = 0.002). In patients with HCC due to a nonviral cause, the difference in median RFS between the low (70.9 months) and high (32.0 months) groups was not significant. DISCUSSION: Findings of this retrospective study indicate a significant association of elevated aMAP with worse RFS in patients with HCC caused by chronic viral hepatitis, especially those with HCV. The aMAP score is considered useful to predict not only HCC-carcinogenesis risk but also risk of recurrence following curative treatment.

The aMAP Score is an Independent Risk Factor for Intermediate-stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Large Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background: A less effective nomogram for patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to predict overall survival (OS) is available. This study aimed to investigate the role of age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelet (aMAP) scores in the prognosis of patients with intermediate-stage HCC and develop an aMAP score-based nomogram to predict OS. Methods: Data on newly diagnosed intermediate-stage patients with HCC at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between January 2007 and May 2012 were retrospectively collected. Independent risk factors affecting prognosis were selected by multivariate analyses. The optimal cut-off value for the aMAP score was determined using X-tile. The survival prognostic models were presented by the nomogram. Results: For the 875 patients with intermediate-stage HCC included, the median OS was 22.2 months (95% CI 19.6-25.1). Patients were classified into three groups by X-tile plots (aMAP score < 49.42; 49.42 ≤ aMAP score < 56; aMAP score ≥ 56). Alpha-fetoprotein, lactate dehydrogenase, aMAP score, diameter of main tumor, number of intrahepatic lesions, and treatment regimen were independent risk factors for prognosis. A predicted model was constructed with a C-index of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68-0.72) in the training goup, and its 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under the receiver operating curve were: 0.75, 0.73, and 0.72. The validation group of the C-index is 0.82. Calibration graphs showed good consistency between the actual and predicted survival rates. The decision curve analysis suggested the clinical utility of the model, which may help clinicians guide clinical decision-making. Conclusion: The aMAP score was an independent risk factor for intermediate-stage HCC. The aMAP score-based nomogram has good discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.

KRAS, MYC, and ARF6: inseparable relationships cooperatively promote cancer malignancy and immune evasion.

Mutations in the KRAS gene and overexpression of protein products of the MYC and ARF6 genes occur frequently in cancer. Here, the inseparable relationships and cooperation of the protein products of these three genes in cancer malignancy and immune evasion are discussed. mRNAs encoded by these genes share the common feature of a G-quadruplex structure, which directs them to be robustly expressed when cellular energy production is increased. These three proteins are also functionally inseparable from each other, as follows.　1) KRAS induces MYC gene expression, and may also promote eIF4A-dependent MYC and ARF6 mRNA translation, 2) MYC induces the expression of genes involved in mitochondrial biogenesis and oxidative phosphorylation, and 3) ARF6 protects mitochondria from oxidative injury. ARF6 may moreover promote cancer invasion and metastasis, and also acidosis and immune checkpoint. Therefore, the inseparable relationships and cooperation of KRAS, MYC, and ARF6 appear to result in the activation of mitochondria and the driving of ARF6-based malignancy and immune evasion. Such adverse associations are frequent in pancreatic cancer, and appear to be further enhanced by TP53 mutations. Video Abstract.

aMAP Score and Its Combination With Liver Stiffness Measurement Accurately Assess Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The changes in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) are unreliable to estimate regression of fibrosis during antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. The age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets score (aMAP), as an accurate hepatocellular carcinoma risk score, may reflect the liver fibrosis stage. Here, we aimed to evaluate the performance of aMAP for diagnosing liver fibrosis in CHB patients with or without treatment. METHODS: A total of 2053 patients from 2 real-world cohorts and 2 multicentric randomized controlled trials in China were enrolled, among which 2053 CHB patients were included in the cross-sectional analysis, and 889 CHB patients with paired liver biopsies before and after 72 or 104 weeks of treatment were included in the longitudinal analysis. RESULTS: In the cross-sectional analysis, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of aMAP in diagnosing cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis were 0.788 and 0.757, which were comparable with or significantly higher than those of the fibrosis index based on 4 factors and the aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio. The stepwise approach using aMAP and LSM further improved performance in detecting cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis with the smallest uncertainty area (29.7% and 46.2%, respectively) and high accuracy (82.3% and 79.8%, respectively). In the longitudinal analysis, we established a novel model (aMAP-LSM model) by calculating aMAP and LSM results before and after treatment, which had satisfactory performance in diagnosing cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis after treatment (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.839 and 0.840, respectively), especially for those with a significant decrease in LSM after treatment (vs LSM alone, 0.828 vs 0.748; P < .001 [cirrhosis]; 0.825 vs 0.750; P < .001 [advanced fibrosis]). CONCLUSIONS: The aMAP score is a promising noninvasive tool for diagnosing fibrosis in CHB patients. The aMAP-LSM model could accurately estimate fibrosis stage for treated CHB patients.

Validation of Noninvasive Markers for HCC Risk Stratification in 1389 Patients With Biopsy-proven NAFLD.

Background and Aims: Nonalcoholic fatty liver diseases (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) can cause hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We examined histological features and reported noninvasive markers/models for stratifying the risk of HCC development in patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD or NASH. Methods: A total of 1389 patients who had a histological diagnosis of NAFLD or NASH based on liver biopsy and underwent regular surveillance for HCC were included. The ability to predict HCC development was compared between histological features including liver fibrosis and NAFLD activity score, and noninvasive markers/models including aMAP (age, male, albumin-bilirubin, and platelet) score, FIB-4 (Fibrosis-4) index, and ALBI (albumin-bilirubin) score calculated at the time of biopsy. Results: The C index of aMAP score was 0.887, which was consistent with the original report, comparable to FIB-4 index (0.878), and higher than those of ALBI score (0.789), histological liver fibrosis (0.723), and NAFLD activity score (0.589). The hazard ratios for HCC development in the aMAP intermediate and high-risk groups were 21.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.6-402.0) and 110.3 (95% CI, 16.3-2251.4), respectively, in comparison to the aMAP score low-risk group. Those in the FIB-4 index moderate- and high-fibrosis groups were 10.3 (95% CI, 1.7-199.8) and 93.1 (95% CI, 16.3-1773.8), respectively, in comparison to the FIB-4 index mild-fibrosis group. No patients in the aMAP score low-risk group developed HCC during the study period. Conclusion: For stratifying the risk of HCC development in patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD or NASH, both aMAP score and FIB-4 index showed high discriminative ability as noninvasive markers, which were superior histological features.

Non-Achievement of Alanine Aminotransferase Normalization Associated with the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma during Nucleos(t)ide Analogue Therapies: A Multicenter Retrospective Study.

Patients with a chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection who are treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) are still at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and it has been clinically questioned whether patients with a high risk of HCC can be identified efficiently. We aimed to clarify the risk factors associated with the development of HCC during NA therapies. A total of 611 chronically HBV-infected patients without a history of HCC, who were treated with NAs for more than 6 months (median 72 months), from 2000 to 2021, were included from 16 hospitals in the Tohoku district in Japan. Incidences of HCC occurrence were analyzed with clinical factors, including on-treatment responses. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) normalization, based on the criteria of three guidelines, was analyzed with other parameters, including the age−male−ALBI−platelets (aMAP) risk score. During the observation period, 48 patients developed HCC, and the cumulative HCC incidence was 10.6% at 10 years. Non-achievement of ALT normalization at 1 year of therapy was mostly associated with HCC development when ALT ≤ 30 U/L was used as the cut-off (cumulative incidence, 19.9% vs. 5.3% at 10 years, p < 0.001). The effectiveness of the aMAP risk score at the start of treatment was validated in this cohort. A combination of an aMAP risk score ≥ 50 and non-achievement of ALT normalization could stratify the risk of HCC significantly, and notably, there was no HCC development in 103 patients without these 2 factors. In conclusion, non-achievement of ALT normalization (≤30 U/L) at 1 year might be useful in predicting HCC during NA therapies and, in combination with the aMAP risk score, could stratify the risk more precisely.

Dietary amylose and amylopectin ratio changes starch digestion and intestinal microbiota diversity in goslings.

1. Research has confirmed that amylopectin (AP) is more easily digested than amylose (AM) because AP polymers have more intramolecular hydrogen bonds and less surface area. Studying the relationship between the amylose:amylopectin (AM:AP) ratio and intestine digestion in goslings can provide useful information for effective utilisation of starch.2. A total of 288 healthy male Jiangnan White Goslings, aged three days old, were randomly allotted to four groups, which included six pen replicates per treatment with 12 goslings per replicate. Four diets were formulated with maize, long-grained rice and glutinous rice as starch sources, with AM:AP ratios of 0.12, 0.23, 0.34, and 0.45. In vitro starch digestion of the four diets was measured, as well as the effect of AM:AP ratio on growth performance, serum amino-acid concentration and intestinal microbiota diversity of goslings.3. In terms of in vitro starch digestion, the increase in dietary AM:AP ratio resulted in a decrease followed by an increase in both rapidly and slowly digestible starch. The glucose release rate at an AM:AP ratio of 0.34 showed a steady upward trend.4. The in vivo study showed that increasing the AM:AP ratio resulted in a quadratic increase in body weight (BW) and average daily feed intake (ADFI; P < 0.05). Goslings fed diets with an AM:AP ratio of 0.34 had lower (P < 0.05) histidine and valine serum concentrations compared with the other three starch sources. Higher AM was beneficial to jejunal microbial and diversity. The species colonisation level of the jejunum microbiota samples at an AM:AP ratio of 0.34 was higher than that in the other groups.5. The results indicated that diets with an AM:AP ratio of 0.34 improved the growth performance and intestinal microbiota diversity of goslings. This may have been due to the higher level of resistant starch in amylose, which resulted in a slow release of intestinal glucose that acted as a substrate for the microbial species, thus providing conditions that were more conducive to growth.

What are the likely changes in mercury concentration in the Arctic atmosphere and ocean under future emissions scenarios?

Arctic mercury (Hg) concentrations respond to changes in anthropogenic Hg emissions and environmental change. This manuscript, prepared for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Mercury Assessment, explores the response of Arctic Ocean Hg concentrations to changing primary Hg emissions and to changing sea-ice cover, river inputs, and net primary production. To do this, we conduct a model analysis using a 2015 Hg inventory and future anthropogenic Hg emission scenarios. We model future atmospheric Hg deposition to the surface ocean as a flux to the surface water or sea ice using three scenarios: No Action, New Policy (NP), and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR). We then force a five-compartment box model of Hg cycling in the Arctic Ocean with these scenarios and literature-derived climate variables to simulate environmental change. No Action results in a 51% higher Hg deposition rate by 2050 while increasing Hg concentrations in the surface water by 22% and <9% at depth. Both "action" scenarios (NP and MFR), implemented in 2020 or 2035, result in lower Hg deposition ranging from 7% (NP delayed to 2035) to 30% (MFR implemented in 2020) by 2050. Under this last scenario, ocean Hg concentrations decline by 14% in the surface and 4% at depth. We find that the sea-ice cover decline exerts the strongest Hg reducing forcing on the Arctic Ocean while increasing river discharge increases Hg concentrations. When modified together the climate scenarios result in a ≤5% Hg decline by 2050 in the Arctic Ocean. Thus, we show that the magnitude of emissions-induced future changes in the Arctic Ocean is likely to be substantial compared to climate-induced effects. Furthermore, this study underscores the need for prompt and ambitious action for changing Hg concentrations in the Arctic, since delaying less ambitious reduction measures-like NP-until 2035 may become offset by Hg accumulated from pre-2035 emissions.

Validation of the hepatocellular carcinoma early detection screening algorithm Doylestown and aMAP in a cohort of Chinese with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have developed some blood-based biomarker algorithms such as the Doylestown algorithm and aMAP score to improve the detection of Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, no one has studied the application of the Doylestown algorithm in the Chinese. Meanwhile, which of these two screening models is more suitable for people with liver cirrhosis remains to be investigated. METHODS: In this study, HCC surveillance was performed by radiographic imaging and testing for tumor markers every 6 months from August 21, 2018, to January 12, 2021. We conducted a retrospective study of 742 liver cirrhosis patients, and among them, 20 developed HCC during follow-up. Samples from these patients at three follow-up time points were tested to evaluate alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), the Doylestown algorithm, and aMAP score. RESULTS: Overall, 521 liver cirrhosis patients underwent semiannual longitudinal follow-up three times. Five patients were diagnosed with HCC within 0-6 months of the third follow-up. We found that for these liver cirrhosis patients, the Doylestown algorithm had the highest accuracy for HCC detection, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) of 0.763, 0.801, and 0.867 for follow-ups 1-3, respectively. Compared with AFP at 20 ng/ml, the Doylestown algorithm increased biomarker performance by 7.4%, 21%, and 13% for follow-ups 1-3, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that the Doylestown algorithm performance appeared to be optimal for HCC early screening in the Chinese cirrhotic population when compared with the aMAP score and AFP at 20 ng/ml.

Performance of models to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk among UK patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models can inform clinical decisions about HCC screening provided their predictions are robust. We conducted an external validation of 6 HCC prediction models for UK patients with cirrhosis and a HCV virological cure. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV were identified from the Scotland HCV clinical database (N = 2,139) and the STratified medicine to Optimise Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus (STOP-HCV) study (N = 606). We calculated patient values for 4 competing non-genetic HCC prediction models, plus 2 genetic models (for the STOP-HCV cohort only). Follow-up began at the date of sustained virological response (SVR) achievement. HCC diagnoses were identified through linkage to nation-wide cancer, hospitalisation, and mortality registries. We compared discrimination and calibration measures between prediction models. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 3.4-3.9 years, with 118 (Scotland) and 40 (STOP-HCV) incident HCCs observed. The age-male sex-ALBI-platelet count score (aMAP) model showed the best discrimination; for example, the Concordance index (C-index) in the Scottish cohort was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81). However, for all models, discrimination varied by cohort (being better for the Scottish cohort) and by age (being better for younger patients). In addition, genetic models performed better in patients with HCV genotype 3. The observed 3-year HCC risk was 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.2) and 5.1% (3.5-7.0%) in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. These were most closely matched by aMAP, in which the mean predicted 3-year risk was 3.6% and 5.0% in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: aMAP was the best-performing model in terms of both discrimination and calibration and, therefore, should be used as a benchmark for rival models to surpass. This study underlines the opportunity for 'real-world' risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. However, auxiliary research is needed to help translate an HCC risk prediction into an HCC-screening decision. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV are at high risk of developing liver cancer, although the risk varies substantially from one patient to the next. Risk calculator tools can alert clinicians to patients at high risk and thereby influence decision-making. In this study, we tested the performance of 6 risk calculators in more than 2,500 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. We show that some risk calculators are considerably better than others. Overall, we found that the 'aMAP' calculator worked the best, but more work is needed to convert predictions into clinical decisions.

Oncological Effects and Prognostic Value of AMAP1 in Gastric Cancer.

PURPOSE: We examined the diagnostic significance, prognostic value, and potential function of AMAP1 in gastric cancer (GC). METHODS: Comprehensive bioinformatic analysis was conducted to investigate differential expression of AMAP1 mRNA and protein in GC. Meta-analyses were utilized to determine the overall prognostic correlation of AMAP1 mRNA in patients with GC. A panel of vitro assays was applied to assess target microRNA and AMAP1 protein in GC cell lines and tissues, respectively. RESULTS: AMAP1 mRNA and protein levels were upregulated in GC specimens, compared to matched normal tissues. AMAP1 mRNA exhibited promising results regarding differential diagnosis of GC and normal tissue. Meta-analysis based on the TCGA and GEO databases revealed that high AMAP1 mRNA abundance was associated with poor overall survival (HR = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.06-1.89) and was correlated with reduced progression-free survival (HR = 1.89; 95% CI: 1.51-2.36) in GC patients. Moreover, AMAP1 was negatively correlated with miR-192-3p (r = -0.3843; P < 0.0001). A dual-luciferase assay revealed that miR-192-3p targeted AMAP1. Levels of miR-192-3p were significantly higher in GC tissues and GC cells than in normal tissues and cells. Moreover, AMAP1 silencing resulted in reduced GC proliferation, migration, and invasion. CONCLUSION: AMAP1 is a novel oncogene in GC and is negatively correlated with by miR-192-3p. AMAP1 may act as a diagnostic and prognostic marker of GC.