A novel metric of autoimmune disease burden and its estimated incidence across different stages in life cycle of women.

AIM: To produce a unique metric 'autoimmune disease (ADs)' based on various single autoimmune disorder and estimate its case number and age-standardized rate of incidence for each stage in life cycle of women from 1990 to 2019, and to further explore their temporal trends at global, regional, and national levels. METHODS: A comprehensive classification for life cycle of women was proposed. The estimates and 95 % uncertainty intervals (UIs) for case number and rate of incidence for rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, and type 1 diabetes mellitus in all age groups (< 1, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, ……,80-84, 85-89, 90-94, 95+) were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. 'ADs' was defined by combining these five disorders. Age standardization by direct method was utilized to estimate the age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence of 'ADs' for each stage in life cycle of women. Joinpoint regression analysis was adopted to investigate temporal trends of ASR from 1990 to 2019 by calculating annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC). Associations of incidence in 2019 and change in incidence from 1990 to 2019, with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) were also explored. RESULTS: In 2019, global ASR of incidence of 'ADs' in childhood, adolescence, adulthood, senility, women of childbearing age, perimenopause, menopause, and sex mature adults at the best reproductive age were 45.46 (95 % CI: 36.40 to 55.09), 59.97(95 % CI:46.62 to 75.30), 104.45 (95 % CI: 84.55 to 127.79), 129.58 (95 % CI: 105.18 to 157.68), 89.51 (95 % CI: 71.94 to 110.35), 130.92 (95 % CI: 106.98 to 158.16), 132.94 (95 % CI: 108.76 to 160.90) and 85.78 (95 % CI: 68.72 to 106.37), respectively. Regionally, although ASR in eight life stages differed from distinct geographical areas, the top three highest ASR all occurred in Western Europe, Australasia, and High-income North America. From 1990 to 2019, global ASR in childhood (AAPC: -0.39, [95 % CI: -0.4 to -0.38], p < 0.001), adolescence (AAPC: -0.4, [95 % CI: -0.41 to -0.4], p < 0.001), adulthood (AAPC: -0.53, [95 % CI: -0.55 to -0.51], p < 0.001), senility (AAPC: -0.4, [95 % CI: -0.41 to -0.38], p < 0.001), women of childbearing age (AAPC: -0.53, [95 % CI: -0.55 to -0.5], p < 0.001), perimenopause (AAPC: -0.56, [95 % CI: -0.59 to -0.52], p < 0.001), menopause (AAPC: -0.56, [95 % CI: -0.59 to -0.53], p < 0.001), and sex mature adults at the best reproductive age (AAPC: -0.5, [95 % CI: -0.51 to -0.49], p < 0.001) all significantly decreased. Nationally, ASR and its temporal trends in eight life stages varied significantly across 204 countries and territories. Additionally, incidence in 2019 and change in incidence from 1990 to 2019 were positively correlated with SDI across nations. CONCLUSIONS: Significant heterogeneities in incidence of autoimmune diseases across nations, with higher sociodemographic development level presenting higher burden, suggest that flexible health policy and targeted resource allocation tailored to sociodemographic status are crucial for each country.

Age standardization and time-of-day performance for the Oldenburg Sentence Test (OLSA): results from the population-based Gutenberg Health Study.

PURPOSE: The Oldenburg Sentence Test (OLSA) is a German matrix test designed to determine speech recognition thresholds (SRT). It is widely used for hearing-aids and cochlear implant fitting, but an age-adjusted standard is still lacking. In addition, knowing that the ability to concentrate is an important factor in OLSA performance, we hypothesized that OLSA performance would depend on the time of day it was administered. The aim of this study was to propose an age standardization for the OLSA and to determine its diurnal performance. METHODS: The Gutenberg Health Study is an ongoing population-based study and designed as a single-centre observational, prospective cohort study. Participants were interviewed about common otologic symptoms and tested with pure-tone audiometry and OLSA. Two groups-subjects with and without hearing loss-were established. The OLSA was performed in two runs. The SRT was evaluated for each participant. Results were characterized by age in 5-year cohorts, gender and speech recognition threshold (SRT). A time stamp with an hourly interval was also implemented. RESULTS: The mean OLSA SRT was - 6.9 ± 1.0 dB (group 1 male) and - 7.1 ± 0.8 dB (group 1 female) showing an inverse relationship with age in the whole cohort, whereas a linear increase was observed in those without hearing loss. OLSA-SRT values increased more in males than in females with increasing age. No statistical significance was found for the diurnal performance. CONCLUSIONS: A study with 2900 evaluable Oldenburg Sentence Tests is a novelty and representative for the population of Mainz and its surroundings. We postulate an age- and gender-standardized scale for the evaluation of the OLSA. In fact, with an intergroup standard deviation (of about 1.5 dB) compared to the age dependence of 0.7 dB/10 years, this age normalization should be considered as clinically relevant.

Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of autoimmune diseases in women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2019.

AIM: To estimate the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of autoimmune diseases including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), multiple sclerosis (MS), type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), asthma, and psoriasis in women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2019, and to further analyze their changing trends, at global, regional, and national levels. METHODS: Women of childbearing age was defined as 15-49 years old. The estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for case number of RA, IBD, MS, T1DM, asthma and psoriasis in seven age groups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49 years) were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Age standardization by direct method was adopted to estimate the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of these autoimmune diseases in women of childbearing age. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to analyze the changing trends of estimated age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 by calculating the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: In 2019, the estimated global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of RA in women of childbearing age was 17.13 (95% UI: 12.39 to 22.60), 215.86 (95% UI: 179.04 to 259.70), and 0.06 (95% UI: 0.04 to 0.08); of IBD was 5.85 (95% UI: 4.72 to 7.12), 63.54 (95% UI: 53.50 to 74.37), and 0.11 (95% UI: 0.08 to 0.13); of MS was 1.63 (95% UI: 1.05 to 2.28), 28.74 (95% UI: 23.80 to 34.46), and 0.17 (95% UI: 0.14 to 0.27); of T1DM was 6.22 (95% UI: 2.75 to 11.50), 290.51 (95% UI: 221.39 to 370.19), and 0.63 (95% UI: 0.48 to 0.78); of asthma was 291.14 (95% UI: 157.06 to 468.78), 2796.25 (95%UI: 1987.07 to 3842.97), and 1.42 (95% UI: 1.12 to 1.75), respectively. The estimated global age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of psoriasis in women of childbearing age was 58.68 (95% UI: 51.04 to 66.85) and 477.20 (95% UI: 440.30 to 515.76). Highest disease burden generally exists in Region of the Americas and European Region. From 1990 to 2019, the estimated global age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of RA (AAPC: 0.18, 95% CI: 0.11 to 0.24; AAPC: 0.24, 95% CI: 0.18 to 0.30) and T1DM (AAPC: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.40 to 1.54; AAPC: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.79 to 0.88) in women of childbearing age showed significantly increasing trends whereas those of IBD (AAPC: -0.76, 95% CI: -0.80 to -0.73; AAPC: -0.65, 95% CI: -0.70 to -0.60), MS (AAPC: -0.20, 95% CI: -0.23 to -0.16; AAPC: -0.25, 95% CI: -0.26 to -0.23), asthma (AAPC: -0.53, 95% CI: -0.60 to -0.47; AAPC: -0.74, 95% CI: -0.81 to -0.68), and psoriasis (AAPC: -0.83, 95% CI: -0.85 to -0.82; AAPC: -0.99, 95% CI: -1.02 to -0.96) showed significantly decreasing trends. Favorably, the estimated global age-standardized mortality rate of RA (AAPC: -1.32, 95% CI: -1.63 to -1.01), IBD (AAPC: -0.95, 95% CI: -1.06 to -0.84), MS (AAPC: -0.96, 95% CI: -1.12 to -0.80), T1DM (AAPC: -1.05, 95% CI: -1.21 to -0.89), and asthma (AAPC: -2.27, 95% CI: -2.34 to -2.19) in women of childbearing age all declined. The changing trends of estimated age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates varied significantly across 204 countries and territories. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides an accurate estimation on the age-standardization of disease indicators of autoimmune diseases in women of childbearing age. There are remarkable disparities in the incidence, prevalence, and mortality burden related to autoimmune diseases in women of childbearing age, as well as their changing trends across the world, suggesting that each individual government should establish flexible health policies and make reasonable source allocation to address different needs for autoimmune diseases in this population.

Core health indicators in countries with high proportion of expatriates: Case study of Qatar.

Background: Population size and structure have a huge impact on health indicators. In countries with a high proportion of expatriates, there are some limitations in estimating, aggregating and reporting of the health indicators, and corrections may be required in the established estimation methodologies. We review the case of Qatar to see how its specific population characteristics affect its health indicators. Methods: We used routinely collected data and reviewed and calculated a selected list of health indicators for Qatari and non-Qatari populations residing in Qatar. Mortality and cancer incidence rates, stratified by nationality, were used for this purpose. Also, a direct method was used to estimate completeness of the death registry, compared to the mortuary data. Results: Age and sex distribution of Qatari and non-Qatari populations are completely different. Compared to the mortuary data, completeness of death registration for the total population was estimated at 98.9 and 94.3%, with and without considering overseas deaths, respectively. Both estimates were considerably higher than estimates from the indirect methods. Mortality patterns were different even after standardization of age and stratification of sex groups; male age-standardized mortality rates were 502.7 and 242.3 per 100,000 individuals, respectively for Qataris and non-Qataris. The rates were closer in female populations (315.6 and 291.5, respectively). The leading types of cancer incidents were different in Qataris and non-Qataris. Conclusions: Expatriates are a dynamic population with high-turnover, different from Qatari population in their age-sex structure and health status. They are more likely to be young or middle-aged and are less affected by age related diseases and cancers. Also, they might be at higher risks for specific diseases or injuries. Aggregating indicators of Qatari and non-Qatari populations might be mis-leading for policy making purposes, and common estimation correction approaches cannot alleviate the limitations. High-proportion of expatriate population also imposes significant errors to some of the key demographic estimates (such as completeness of death registry). We recommend a standardized approach to consider nationality in addition to age and sex distributions for analysis of health data in countries with a high proportion of expatriates.

Superoxide Dismutase Activity in Male and Female Patients of Different Age with Moderate COVID-19.

The study involved 271 patients (132 men and 139 women) with moderate COVID-19. Superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity in erythrocytes was measured spectrophotometrically. In total group of patients (divided into age groups of 18-35, 36-45, 46-60, and 61-90 years), higher SOD activity was found in the 18-35 age group in comparison with the groups 46-60 years (p<0.01) and 61-90 years (p<0.05). Then, the groups were additionally divided by sex. In men, no differences in enzyme activity were found between the age groups. In women of early reproductive age, SOD activity was higher than in groups 36-45, 46-60, and 61-90 years. The sex differences consisted in higher SOD activity in women aged 18-35 years in comparison with men of this age. These data should be taken into account when choosing the tactics of therapy for patients with moderate COVID-19 course.

Prevalence of obesity and associated factors in Benue State, Nigeria: A population-based study.

Background: The prevalence of obesity has risen to over 650 million adults in 2016, and accounts for 41 million deaths globally. It is a major contributor to the burden of noncommunicable diseases. We determined the prevalence and associated factors of obesity to inform policy decisions toward developing robust prevention and management strategies. Materials and Methods: We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in July 2017 among 1265 adults in urban and rural communities in Benue State. We used multistage sampling technique in selecting the participants. The WHO standardized and validated tool were used to collect information on sociodemographic and anthropometric measurements. We calculated age standardized prevalence of obesity and determined factors associated with obesity using logistic regression at 5% level of significance. Results: The age standardized prevalence of obesity was 11.1% (rural 4.2%, urban 14.3%). The odds for obesity was higher among females (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 3.4; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.27-4.99), those with tertiary education (aOR: 3.3; 95% CI: 1.61-6.95), married (aOR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.37-3.36), and those residing in urban areas (aOR: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.73-5.05) compared to rural dwellers. Conclusions: The prevalence of obesity was high among adults in Benue State. It is more prevalent among females, married, educated, and urban dwellers. Interventions targeted at healthy lifestyle choices should be directed at these populations for effective control.

RésuméContexte: La prévalence de l'obésité est passée à plus de 650 millions d'adultes en 2016 et représente 41 millions de décès dans le monde. C'est un majeur contribuant au fardeau des maladies non transmissibles. Nous avons déterminé la prévalence et les facteurs associés de l'obésité pour éclairer les décisions politiques vers l'élaboration de stratégies solides de prévention et de gestion. Matériel et méthodes: Nous avons réalisé une analyse transversale basée sur la population étude réalisée en juillet 2017 auprès de 1265 adultes des communautés urbaines et rurales de l'État de Benue. Nous avons utilisé une technique d'échantillonnage à plusieurs degrés pour sélectionner les participants. L'outil normalisé et validé de l'OMS a été utilisé pour collecter des informations sur les mesures sociodémographiques et anthropométriques. Nous avons calculé la prévalence standardisée selon l'âge de l'obésité et déterminé les facteurs associés à l'obésité en utilisant une régression logistique à un niveau de 5% de importance. Résultats: La prévalence de l'obésité normalisée selon l'âge était de 11,1% (rurale 4,2%, urbaine 14,3%). Les probabilités d'obésité étaient plus élevées chez femmes (rapport de cotes ajusté [aOR]: 3,4; intervalle de confiance à 95% [IC]: 2,27­4,99), celles ayant fait des études supérieures (aOR: 3,3; IC à 95%: 1,61­6,95), mariés (aOR: 2,1; IC à 95%: 1,37­3,36) et ceux résidant dans les zones urbaines (aOR: 3,0; IC à 95%: 1,73­5,05) par rapport aux habitants des zones rurales. Conclusions: La prévalence de l'obésité était élevée chez les adultes de l'État de Benue. Il est plus répandu chez les femmes mariées, instruites et citadins. Les interventions ciblées sur les choix de modes de vie sains devraient être dirigées vers ces populations pour un contrôle efficace.

Cancers as rare diseases: Terminological, theoretical, and methodological biases.

OBJECTIVE: Was cancer a rare disease in the past? Our objective is to consider the various terminological, theoretical, and methodological biases that may affect perceptions of the rarity of cancer in the past. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We discuss relevant malignant neoplastic biomedical and paleopathological literature and evaluate skeletal data. We selected 108 archaeological sites (n = 151 cancer cases) with published malignant neoplasms and that were amenable to calculating cancer crude prevalence. Furthermore, datasets from four medieval/postmedieval Portuguese and 12 postmedieval UK sites were used to compare age-adjusted rates for metastatic bone disease and tuberculosis. RESULTS: In the literature review, mean cancer crude prevalence (1.2 %; 95 % CI = 0.96-1.4) exceeded the threshold for a rare disease (RD). Age-standardized rates of MBD and TB were not markedly different in the sites surveyed. CONCLUSIONS: Methodological, theoretical and historical factors contribute to assumptions that cancers were rare diseases. The assumption that cancers are extremely rare in the paleopathological literature was not fully supported. Cancer is a heterogeneous concept, and it is important to view it as such. If a disease is considered rare, we may fail to recognize it or dismiss it as unimportant in the past. SIGNIFICANCE: We present a re-evaluation of the idea that cancer is a rare disease. We present a more nuanced way of comparing rates of pathological conditions in archaeological contexts. LIMITATIONS: Variation in the amount of useable information in published literature on malignant neoplasms. SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: More large-scale studies of cancer in the past alongside comparative studies of cancer prevalence with other assumed rare diseases.

Reference-adjusted and standardized all-cause and crude probabilities as an alternative to net survival in population-based cancer studies.

BACKGROUND: In population-based cancer survival studies, the most common measure to compare population groups is age-standardized marginal relative survival, which under assumptions can be interpreted as marginal net survival; the probability of surviving if it was not possible to die of causes other than the cancer under study (if the age distribution was that of a common reference population). The hypothetical nature of this definition has led to confusion and incorrect interpretation. For any measure to be fair in terms of comparing cancer survival, then differences between population groups should depend only on differences in excess mortality rates due to the cancer and not differences in other-cause mortality rates or differences in the age distribution. METHODS: We propose using crude probabilities of death and all-cause survival which incorporate reference expected mortality rates. This makes it possible to obtain marginal crude probabilities and all-cause probability of death that only differ between population groups due to excess mortality rate differences. Choices have to be made regarding what reference mortality rates to use and what age distribution to standardize to. RESULTS: We illustrate the method and some potential choices using data from England for men diagnosed with melanoma. Various marginal measures are presented and compared. CONCLUSIONS: The new measures help enhance understanding of cancer survival and are a complement to the more commonly used measures.

Prevalence of tobacco use in urban and rural areas of Pakistan; a sub-study from second National Diabetes Survey of Pakistan (NDSP) 2016 - 2017.

OBJECTIVE: To assess age standardized prevalence of tobacco use in urban and rural areas of Pakistan. METHODS: This is a sub-study of second National Diabetes Survey of Pakistan (NDSP) 2016-2017. Prevalence of tobacco, ex-tobacco and non-tobacco users was determined in urban/rural areas of four provinces (Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Baluchistan) of Pakistan amongst people aged greater than or equal to 20 years. Information regarding tobacco and non-tobacco users were obtained from second NDSP (2016-2017) predesigned questionnaire. Detailed methodology for demographic, anthropometric and biochemical parameters remained same as reported in second NDSP (2016-2017). RESULTS: The age-standardized prevalence of tobacco use in Pakistan was found to be 13.4%. Tobacco use in urban areas was 16.3% and rural areas was 11.7%. Tobacco use in urban and rural males was 26.1% and 24.1%, while in females was 7.7% and 3.1%, respectively. The age-standardized prevalence of ex-tobacco use in Pakistan was found to be 2.3%. Ex-tobacco use in urban areas was 2.6% and rural areas was 2.3%. Similarly, ex-tobacco use in urban and rural males was 4.6% and 4.6%, while in females was 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. Multinomial logistic regression analysis shows that increasing age does not relate towards addiction of tobacco. Males were found to be 7 times (OR 6.94, 95% CI 5.68-8.49) and urban residents twice (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.73-2.52) more tobacco users than females and those living in rural areas, respectively. From the likelihood ratio test, all variables were found to be statistically significant except for dysglycemia, dyslipidemia and hypertension. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of tobacco use is high. As a sub paper of a large national survey, this evidence is expected to serve as an important tool to plan larger studies leading in turn to develop strategies for a successful tobacco control program in the country.

Estimation of age-standardized net survival, even when age-specific data are sparse.

BACKGROUND: Age-standardization is vital in international comparison studies of cancer patient survival, but standard approaches can fail to produce estimates in the case of sparsity. METHODS: The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that using a standardization pre-weighting approach is a viable alternative approach for external age-standardization in population-based cancer data and performs well in cases of sparsity. We further de;1;scribe how the pre-weighting approach to age-standardization can be coupled with the Pohar Perme estimator in both a cohort and period analysis setting. For period analysis, we compare approaches for defining the internal age distribution. We use SEER public use data to illustrate our approach and estimate survival for Connecticut and by race to create a scenario with sufficient sparsity. RESULTS: The pre-weighting approach gives comparable estimates to traditional age-standardization in cases with sufficient data and produces estimates throughout follow-up in cases of sparsity when a traditional approach would fail. CONCLUSION: International comparison studies and other national population-based survival studies that need to age-standardize estimates for comparability purposes should adopt the Pohar Perme estimator with pre-weighting. This approach avoids issues of non-estimation in the case of sparsity and will allow more consistent comparisons across the produced estimates.

Age-standardized expected years of life lost: quantification of cancer severity.

BACKGROUND: The critical implications of the expected years of life lost (EYLL) index of cancer for health policy assessments have been largely overlooked. We advocate to standardize life lost indices. METHODS: Using the Taiwan Cancer Registry database as an example, we calculated the EYLL and the age-standardized EYLL to facilitate comparisons among cancer types (a total of 903,935 patients from the database). The International Cancer Survival Standard was used for calculating age-standardized EYLL. RESULTS: Pancreatic cancer is the most severe cancer in Taiwan, with the greatest age-standardized EYLL for the men (15.6 years) and women (18.0 years) as well as for the men and women combined (16.6 years). Negative correlations were observed between unstandardized EYLL of cancer and mean age at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The unstandardized EYLL represents an overall assessment of disease burden, whereas the age-standardized EYLL is a suitable measure of disease severity. We suggest that both measures be incorporated into routine annual reports of cancer statistics alongside the usual incidence and mortality rates and their age-standardized counterparts.

Age-related renal function decline in Fabry disease patients on enzyme replacement therapy: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Nephropathy is common in Fabry disease (FD). Prior studies of renal function during enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) have primarily used estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We studied the attrition of renal function in FD by measured GFR (mGFR) and urine protein excretion, and explored the influence of age. METHODS: This was a long-term observational study of a nationwide, family-screened cohort of FD patients. All Danish genetically verified FD patients on ERT, without end-stage renal disease at baseline and with three or more mGFR values were included. RESULTS: In all, 52 patients with consecutive mGFR values (n = 841) over median 7 years (range 1-13) were evaluated. Blood pressure remained normal and urine protein excretion was unchanged. Plasma globotriaosylceramide (Gb-3) levels normalized while plasma lyso-Gb-3 remained abnormal in 34% of patients. Baseline mGFR was 90 ± 3 mL/min/1.73 m2 and rate of renal function loss 0.9 ± 0.2 mL/min/1.73 m2/year. Baseline eGFR was 97 ± 5 mL/min/1.73 m2 and rate of renal function loss 0.8 ± 0.3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year. mGFR was age- adjusted to renal healthy non-FD subjects, giving a standard deviation score of -0.8 ± 0.2 with an annual slope of -0.03 ± 0.01 (P = 0.099), without differences between genders. Age grouping of age-adjusted data showed exaggerated renal function loss with age. Urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) >300 mg/g was associated with faster renal function loss, independent of baseline mGFR, age and gender. CONCLUSIONS: ERT-treated FD patients did not have a faster attrition of renal function than renal healthy non-FD subjects (background population). The rate of renal function loss with age was independent of gender and predicted by high UACR. We suggest cautious interpretation of non-age-adjusted FD renal data.

Region-Based Analysis of Prevalence and Incidence of Parkinson's Disease: Analysis of the National Sample Cohort in South Korea.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The rapid increases in the elderly population and urbanization in South Korea have influenced both demographics and the environment. This study investigated trends in the prevalence and incidence of Parkinson's disease (PD), and the associations of PD with the urban and rural environments in South Korea. METHODS: This study examined subjects aged 40 years or older in a cohort constructed using the National Sample Cohort data set in South Korea during 2002-2013. We estimated the age-standardized prevalence and incidence of PD based on the 2002 population, and estimated their trends. We analyzed regional differences in these rates by dividing South Korea into three regions based on geographic characteristics and two regions based on the degree of urbanization. RESULTS: The standardized prevalence rates of PD per 100,000 increased significantly from 75.8 in 2003 to 136.8 in 2012 (p<0.0001), especially in older subjects. The standardized prevalence of PD was highest in metropolitan Seoul. The standardized incidence of PD per 100,000 was 13.9 in 2003 and 10.3 in 2012, with no significant trend (p>0.05). The standardized incidence of PD in younger subjects was lower in eastern Korea than in the other two regions, while in the older subjects it was lower in western Korea than in metropolitan Seoul over almost the entire analyzed period. The standardized incidence of PD did not differ significantly between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. CONCLUSIONS: The standardized prevalence of PD increased steadily from 2003 to 2012 in South Korea, while its standardized incidence has remained constant. There were regional differences in the prevalence and incidence of PD based on the degree of urbanization and the area of agricultural land.

Projections of zoster incidence in Australia based on demographic and transmission models of varicella-zoster virus infection.

Re-exposure to varicella infection is believed to delay the occurrence of herpes zoster (HZ), which has led to predictions of increased HZ following introduction of varicella vaccination programs. However, there is evidence of rising HZ rates before vaccination was introduced. Here, we explore a potential explanation for this effect through demographic change leading to reductions in varicella exposure and boosting in the context of Australia over the 20th century. To study this hypothesis, we integrated observed changes in Australian birth and age-specific death rates with a varicella transmission model. The model was then calibrated to age-specific pre-vaccination seroprevalence (1997-9) and hospitalization data (1993-2009). Model simulations predicted that declining birth rates led to a 50% reduction in varicella incidence over the 20th century. When combined with the impacts of an aging population, the simulations further suggested that HZ incidence should have increased by 50% over the 20th century. However, we found that after age-standardization, the residual increase in HZ due to reduced boosting was only about 8% over the 20th century. Results were also sensitive to the assumed duration of immunity to HZ and whether multiple HZ episodes were possible. Despite a strong predicted effect of demographic change on varicella incidence, our findings suggest that improved survival is the main contributor to any rise in HZ rates prior to vaccination in Australia. Removing survival effects through age-standardization is recommended when considering epidemiologic or model-based analysis of past trends in HZ.

Regular monitoring of breast-feeding rates: feasible and sustainable. The Emilia-Romagna experience.

OBJECTIVE: An efficient breast-feeding monitoring system should be in place in every country to assist policy makers and health professionals plan activities to reach optimal breast-feeding rates. Design/Setting/Subjects From March to June 2015, breast-feeding rates at 3 and 5 months of age were monitored in Emilia-Romagna, an Italian region, using four questions added to a newly developed paediatric immunization database with single records for each individual. Data were collected at primary-care centres. Breast-feeding definitions and 24 h recall as recommended by the WHO were used. Direct age standardization was applied to breast-feeding rates. Record linkage with the medical birth database was attempted to identify maternal, pregnancy and delivery factors associated with full breast-feeding rates at 3 and 5 months of age. RESULTS: Data on breast-feeding were collected for 14044 infants. The mean regional full breast-feeding rate at 3 months was 52 %; differences between local health authorities ranged from 42 to 62 %. At 5 months of age, the mean regional full breast-feeding rate dropped to 33 % (range between local health authorities: 26 to 46 %). Record linkage with the birth certificate database was successful for 93 % of records. Total observations more than doubled with respect to the previous regional survey. CONCLUSIONS: The new monitoring system implemented in 2015 in Emilia-Romagna region, totally integrated with the immunization database, has proved to be feasible, sustainable and more efficient than the previous one. This system can be a model for other regions and countries where the vast majority of mothers obtain vaccinations from public health facilities and that already have an immunization database in place.

Effects of rapid aging and lower participation rate among younger adults on the short-term trend of physical activity in the National Health and Nutrition Survey, Japan.

AIM: The National Health and Nutrition Survey, Japan, has annually monitored two indicators of physical activity in adults. They are contrasting in the association with age; the prevalence of exercise habit is lower and step counts are higher among younger participants. The present study aimed to examine the effects of rapid aging of the Japanese population and the lower participation rate among younger adults on the short-term trend of two indicators of physical activity using tabulated data. METHODS: The prevalence of exercise habit and step counts by age groups (≥20 years) from 2003 to 2010 were estimated using tabulated data from the National Health and Nutrition Survey by calculating sex-specific means weighted by age-specific Japanese population data for each year (population-weighted estimates) and for a fixed year (2005; age-standardized estimates). Linear regression analyses were used to test the statistical significance of their trends. RESULTS: Statistically significant increasing trends in the prevalence of exercise habit were observed for the crude means (P = 0.029), the population-weighted estimates (P = 0.007) and the age-standardized estimates (P = 0.016) only in men. Statistically significant decreasing trends in the step counts were observed for the crude means (P = 0.006 in men and P = 0.033 in women) and the population-weighted estimates (P = 0.008 in men and P = 0.049 in women) both in men and women, but for the age-standardized estimates (P = 0.039) only in men. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of rapid aging of the Japanese population and the lower participation rate among younger adults on the short-term trend are not small, and age-standardization is necessary to observe even the short-term trend of physical activity data. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 1677-1682.

An updated method for risk adjustment in outcomes research.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate why meta-analytic methods need modification before they can be used to aggregate rates or effect sizes in outcomes research, under the constraint of no common underlying effect or rate. METHODS: Studies are presented that require different types of risk adjustment. First, we demonstrate using rates that external risk adjustment through standardization can be achieved using modified meta-analytic methods, but only with a model that allows input of user-defined weights. Next, we extend these observations to internal risk adjustment of comparative effect sizes. RESULTS: We show that this procedure produces identical results to conventional age standardization if a rate is being standardized for age. We also demonstrate that risk adjustment of effect sizes can be achieved with this modified method but cannot be done using standard meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that this method allows risk adjustment to be performed in situations in which currently the fixed- or random-effects methods of meta-analysis are inappropriately used. The latter should be avoided when the underlying aim is risk adjustment rather than meta-analysis.