Spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem services in the Aral Sea basin under different CMIP6 projections.

The Aral Sea, located in Central Asia, has undergone significant reduction in surface area owing to the combined impacts of climate change and human activities. This reduction has led to a regional ecological crisis and profound repercussions on ecosystem services. Investigating the spatiotemporal variations and synergistic trade-offs of ESs in the Aral Sea basin is crucial for fostering the integrated development of the region's socioeconomic ecology. This study utilizes the Future Land-Use Simulation and InVEST models to analyze future land-use scenarios, integrating CMIP6 projections to assess the quality of four key ecosystem services: water production, soil conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality over two timeframes: the historical period (1995-2020) and the projected future (2021-2100). Employing Spearman correlation, the study explores the trade-offs and synergies among these ecosystem services. Findings reveal that the primary forms of land-use change in the Aral Sea basin are the reduction in water area (- 49.59%) and the rapid expansion of urban areas (+ 504.65%). Temporally, habitat quality exhibits a declining trend, while carbon storage shows an increasing trend, and water production and soil retention fluctuate initially decreasing and then increasing. Spatially, water production and carbon storage demonstrate an increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast. Habitat quality exhibits a higher spatial pattern in the southeast and south, contrasting with lower spatial patterns in the north and west. Low-level soil conservation is predominantly distributed in the northwest, while medium to low-level soil conservation is prevalent in the east of the basin. The trade-off and synergy analysis indicates that between 1995 and 2020, a trade-off relationship existed between carbon storage and habitat quality and water production, whereas synergies were observed between soil conservation and carbon storage, water production and habitat quality, and soil conservation. The correlation between water production and soil conservation emerges as the strongest, whereas the correlation between carbon storage and habitat quality appears to be the weakest. The dynamic spatiotemporal changes, trade-offs, and collaborative relationships of ESs constitute major aspects of ecosystem service research, holding substantial implications for the effective management of the regional ecological environment.

Microplastic transport during desertification in drylands: Abundance and characterization of soil microplastics in the Amu Darya-Aral Sea basin, Central Asia.

Desertification and microplastic pollution are major environmental issues that impact the function of the ecosystem and human well-being of drylands. Land desertification may influence soil microplastics' abundance, transport, and distribution, but their distribution in the dryland deserts of Central Asia's Amu Darya-Aral Sea basin is unknown. Here, we investigated the abundance and distribution of microplastics in dryland desert soils from the Amu Darya River to the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia at a spatial scale of 1000 km and soil depths ranging from 0 to 50 cm. Microplastics were found in soils from all sample locations, with abundances ranging from 182 to 17841 items kg-1 and a median of 3369. Twenty-four polymers were identified, with polyurethane (PU, 37.3%), silicone resin (SR, 17.0%), and chlorinated polyethylene (CPE, 9.8%) accounting for 64.1% of all polymer types. The abundance of microplastics was significantly higher in deep (20-50 cm) soils than in surface (0-5, 5-20 cm) soils. The main morphological characteristics of the observed microplastics were small size (20-50 µm) and irregular particles with no round edges (mean eccentricity 0.65). The abundance was significantly and positively related to soil EC and TP. According to the findings, desertification processes increase the abundance of microplastic particles in soils and promote migration to deeper soil layers. Human activities, mainly grazing, may be the region's primary cause of desertification and microplastic pollution. Our findings provide new information on the diffusion of microplastics in drylands during desertification; these findings are critical for understanding and promoting dryland plastic pollution prevention and control.

Sustainable management of water-agriculture-ecology nexus system under multiple uncertainties.

The shrinkage and ecological degradation of the Aral Sea resulting from the uncontrolled use of water resources and the unregulated expansion of agriculture activities call for sustainable management of water-agriculture-ecology (WAE) nexus from a basin perspective. However, managers face thorny challenges brought by multiple uncertainties in the management and planning processes. In this study, an interval stochastic fuzzy programming (ISF) method is developed for tackling multiple uncertainties presented as probability distributions, flexible variables and interval parameters. Then, an ISF-WAE model is formulated for Aral Sea Basin, which considers 108 planning scenarios that reflect different food-security and ecology-restoration requirements, as well as risk-response attitudes of decision maker over a long-term planning horizon (2021-2050). Results reveal that for Aral Sea Basin: (i) managers should set strict acreage benchmarks for cereal crops, in which wheat would account for a range of [29.1, 31.2] % of the total agricultural area; (ii) for promoting ecological restoration, the proportion of agricultural water allocation should decrease by a range of [12.7, 16.1] % during the planning horizon; (iii) due to low water requirement and high ecological value of grassland, it is recommended to expand grassland area to improve the sustainability of the Aral Sea Basin in the case of limited water resources.

Net carbon flux from cropland changes in the Central Asian Aral Sea Basin.

The transboundary Aral Sea Basin (ASB) covers parts of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), the central Asian portion of Kazakhstan (KAZ), Uzbekistan (UZB), Turkmenistan (TUK), Kyrgyzstan (KGZ), and Tajikistan (TAJ). During recent decades, the region has experienced widespread cropland changes and has therefore attracted attention. However, carbon flux caused by these changes, which is critical to understand the carbon cycle in the region and to develop strategies for carbon sequestration, has not been quantified. We applied the Bookkeeping Model to analyze carbon flux caused by cropland changes. We found that the cropland area expanded from 1975 to 2019. Prior to 1990, the net increment in cropland area was 64.47 kha yr-1; this decreased to 11.02-18.69 kha yr-1 after the collapse of the USSR (1991). Grasslands and bare lands with low carbon density were the main types of land that were converted to cropland, accounting for approximately 70.3-99.29% of the land cleared for cropland. In terms of cropland loss, grassland accounted for more than 40.69% of the cropland converted to other land cover types, followed by artificial surfaces, which accounted for 25.84-45.16%. The expansion of cropland served as a carbon sink owing to the increase in irrigation and fertilization. The overall potential carbon emission was -89.38 ± 35.34 Tg C, and contributions of the five countries were as follows: TUR (-33.65 ± 6.30 Tg C), UZB (-29.23 ± 25.35 Tg C), KAZ (-12.76 ± 12.16 Tg C), TAJ (-11.11 ± 5.47 Tg C), KGZ (-2.63 ± 7.83 Tg C). The net carbon flux was -2.04 ± 0.23 Tg C yr-1 before 1990, and it decreased to -1.87 ± 1.03 Tg C yr-1 during the post-Soviet era. Finally, we state sustainable agricultural management is urgently needed to deal with the environmental problems of the Aral Sea, which have been primarily caused by cropland expansion.

Agricultural impacts drive longitudinal variations of riverine water quality of the Aral Sea basin (Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers), Central Asia.

River ecosystems are under increasing stress in the background of global change and ever-growing anthropogenic impacts in Central Asia. However, available water quality data in this region are insufficient for a reliable assessment of the current status, which come as no surprise that the limited knowledge of regulating processes for further prediction of solute variations hinders the development of sustainable management strategies. Here, we analyzed a dataset of various water quality variables from two sampling campaigns in 2019 in the catchments of two major rivers in Central Asia-the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers. Our results suggested high spatial heterogeneity of salinity and major ion components along the longitudinal directions in both river catchments, pointing to an increasing influence of human activities toward downstream areas. We linked the modeling outputs from the global nutrient model (IMAGE-GNM) to riverine nutrients to elucidate the effect of different natural and anthropogenic sources in dictating the longitudinal variations of the riverine nutrient concentrations (N and P). Diffuse nutrient loadings dominated the export flux into the rivers, whereas leaching and surface runoff constituted the major fractions for N and P, respectively. Discharge of agricultural irrigation water into the rivers was the major cause of the increases in nutrients and salinity. Given that the conditions in Central Asia are highly susceptible to climate change, our findings call for more efforts to establish holistic management of water quality.

Downscaling model in agriculture in Western Uzbekistan climatic trends and growth potential along field crops physiological tolerance to low and high temperatures.

The Global climate change is becoming an increasing challenge for agriculture. Beyond the increased local occurrence of extreme events high temperatures are becoming an increasingly present limiting factor in crop production. The agriculture in the West of Uzbekistan with very limited rainfalls is highly dependent on irrigation schemes using the Amu Darya water flow. With low Winter (freezing nights with minimum air temperatures of less than 0 °C) and high Summer temperatures (hot days and nights with temperatures above 35 °C during daylight, and minimum air temperatures of more than 20 °C during night time - tropical nights) the local continental arid climate temperatures are a main limiting factor faced by the local agriculture. The arid climate, with a crop production dependant on irrigation, allows putting the focus on temperatures influence on field crops, while rainfalls have barely any influence. In temperate countries the focus has mainly been on low temperatures as a main limiting factor. Freeze is indeed influencing the sowing period and putting crops at early development stages at risk. Even though, the West of Uzbekistan is facing low temperatures over the Winter period which is also challenging the local agriculture, high temperatures are becoming an increasing threat over the Summer period. The present study is analysing day and night temperature trends over the period 1987-1990 and 2013-2017. The observed trends are further compared with data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model available on the World Bank open portal. Regression lines have been calculated illustrating the trends over the period. The inter-annual temperature variations are important with a relative standard deviation which ranges between 16 and 50%. The trend is considered as not significant when the relative standard deviation exceeds the variation over the overall time-period. The Day degrees are used to provide an insight into the climatic impact on crop growth along plants physiological tolerance. The day degree methodology has been especially adjusted in the present publication in order to take into account the tolerance of the studied crops to high temperatures. While the hot period is progressively expending into the Spring period, Winters are not becoming much milder limiting the benefit for Winter crops. While the hot days and tropical night event will become predominant over the Summer period the yields in cotton and rice are expected to drop drastically over the second half of the XXIst century. The expected reduction of water inflow of the Amu Darya over the century will further strongly put into question the crop production model in the West of Uzbekistan. The present publication aims at describing the ongoing trends, expectable changes in agricultural production and timelines. It is also illustrating how hot temperatures analysis could be integrated in downscaling models in agriculture in other regions of Uzbekistan and of the world.

Examining long-term natural vegetation dynamics in the Aral Sea Basin applying the linear spectral mixture model.

BACKGROUND: Associated with the significant decrease in water resources, natural vegetation degradation has also led to many widespread environmental problems in the Aral Sea Basin. However, few studies have examined long-term vegetation dynamics in the Aral Sea Basin or distinguished between natural vegetation and cultivated land when calculating the fractional vegetation cover. METHODS: Based on the multi-temporal Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, this study examined the natural vegetation coverage by introducing the Linear Spectral Mixture Model to the Google Earth Engine platform, which greatly reduces the experimental time. Further, trend line analysis, Sen trend analysis, and Mann-Kendall trend test methods were employed to explore the characteristics of natural vegetation cover change in the Aral Sea Basin from 2000 to 2018. RESULTS: Analyses of the results suggest three major conclusions. First, the development of irrigated agriculture in the desert area is the main reason for the decrease in downstream water. Second, with the reduction of water, the natural vegetation coverage in the Aral Sea Basin showed an upward trend of 17.77% from 2000 to 2018. Finally, the main driving factor of vegetation cover changes in the Aral Sea Basin is the migration of cultivated land to the desert.

Spatiotemporal changes, trade-offs, and synergistic relationships in ecosystem services provided by the Aral Sea Basin.

Intense human activities in the Aral Sea Basin have changed its natural distribution of land use. Although they provide certain economic benefits, these anthropogenic influences have led to the rapid shrinkage of the Aral Sea, severely affecting the region's ecosystem. However, the spatiotemporal variability of the Aral Sea Basin's Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs) is not well understood. In this study, we used 300-meter resolution land use maps from 1995, 2005, and 2015 and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to predict the future land use patterns of the Aral Sea Basin in 2025. Simultaneously, we divided the Aral Sea Basin into three regions (upstream, midstream, and downstream) and evaluated the dynamic responses of their ESVs to Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes. The changes in the types of ecosystem services provided by the Aral Sea Basin, their trade-off, and synergistic relationships were analyzed by weighting their associations. The results showed that from 1995 to 2025, the grassland, urban, and cropland areas in the Aral Sea Basin will expand rapidly, while the areas covered by water bodies will shrink rapidly, causing a total loss of 31.97 billion USD. The downstream loss of 27.79 billion USD of the total amount is mainly caused by the conversion of water bodies to bare land. The ESVs of the middle region will increase by 6.81 billion USD, mainly due to the large amount of water extracted from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers in the middle regions of the Aral Sea Basin that are used to reclaim cultivated land and expand urban areas. The ESVs and areas experiencing land use changes in the upper regions are relatively small. At the same time, our results show that biodiversity, food production, and water regulation are the major ecosystem service functions, and account for 79.46% of the total ESVs. Of the ecosystem service relationships in the Aral Sea Basin, synergy accounts for 55.56% of the interactions, with a fewer amount of trade-off exchanges. This synergy mainly exists in the relationships involving water regulation, waste treatment and recreation, and culture and tourism. We propose protection measures that will coordinate eco-environmental protection efforts with socioeconomic development in the region in order to achieve the United Nations' sustainable development goals.

Remote sensing assessment and spatiotemporal variations analysis of ecological carrying capacity in the Aral Sea Basin.

The severe shrinkage of Aral Sea and water resources coordination issues in upstream and downstream regions lead to the serious ecological crisis in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB). Comprehensive ecological carrying capacity (ECC) assessment is of great significance for the ecological restoration and sustainable development. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Experts Mark, this paper established the index evaluation system according to the specific ecological situation of the ASB. Combining remote sensing (RS) data and geographic information systems (GIS) technology, the paper assessed the ECC from 2001 to 2018 and explained the variations of the ECC by various data. The results indicate that the ECC is getting better in eighteen years. In 2009, the ECC condition is the best. ECC of the upstream region is better than that of the downstream region. The cause analysis that highlights the precipitation and enforcement of ecological policy has a positive impact on the ECC change. And the disparity of water body in upstream and downstream watercourses contributes to the regional difference of ECC. The paper provides an evaluation system of the ECC in the ASB. The analysis of the ECC variations is instructive to the sustainable development and ecological restoration in the ASB and other similar areas.