Diagnostic checks in time series models based on a new correlation coefficient of residuals.

For checking time series models, the Ljung-Box, Li-Mak and Zhu-Wang statistics play an important role, which use the Pearson's correlation coefficient to implement (squared) residual (partial) autocorrelation tests. In this paper, we replace the Pearson's correlation coefficient with a new rank correlation coefficient and propose a new test statistic to conduct diagnostic checks for residuals in autoregressive moving average models, autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models and integer-valued time series models, respectively. We conduct simulations to assess the performance of the new test statistic, and compare it with existing ones, and the results show the superiority of the proposed one. We use three real examples to exhibit its usefulness.

Molecular identification of two thioredoxin genes and their function in antioxidant defense in Arma chinensis diapause.

Thioredoxin (Trx), an important part of thioredoxin systems, plays crucial role in maintaining the intracellular redox balance by scavenging reactive oxygen species (ROS). However, few Trxs have been functionally characterized in Arma chinensis, especially in diapause. In this study, diapause induction condition promoted hydrogen peroxide accumulation and increased CAT enzymatic activity and ascorbate content, suggesting that A. chinensis was exposed to high level of ROS. Therefore, we identified AcTrx2 and AcTrx-like, and investigated the relationship with antioxidant defense. It was found that AcTrx2 expression was significantly induced, whereas AcTrx-like expression was the highest on day 10 under diapause conditions. The expression of AcTrx2 and AcTrx-like in fat body, a central metabolic organ of resisting oxidative stress, was significantly increased under diapause conditions, and was significantly improved by 5/15°C (diapause temperature). We investigated the knockdown of AcTrx2 and AcTrx-like in A. chinensis and found that some selected antioxidant genes were upregulated, indicating that the upregulated genes may be functional compensation for AcTrx2 and AcTrx-like silencing. We also found that the enzymatic activities of SOD and CAT, and the metabolite contents of hydrogen peroxide, ascorbate increased after AcTrx2 and AcTrx-like knockdown. These results suggested the AcTrx2 and AcTrx-like may play critical roles in antioxidant defense of A. chinensis diapause.

Insecticidal activities of three recombinant venom proteins of the predatory stink bug, Arma custos.

BACKGROUND: Widespread resistance of insect pests to insecticides and transgenic crops in the field is a significant challenge for sustainable agriculture, and calls for the development of novel alternative strategies to control insect pests. One potential resource for the discovery of novel insecticidal molecules is natural toxins, particularly those derived from the venoms of insect predators. RESULTS: In this study, we identified three insecticidal proteinaceous toxins from the venom glands (VGs) of the predatory stink bug, Arma custos (Hemiptera: Asopinae). Transcriptomic analysis of A. custos VGs revealed 151 potentially secreted VG-rich venom proteins. Three VG-rich venom proteins (designated AcVP1 ~ 3) were produced by overexpression in Escherichia coli. Injection of the recombinant proteins into tobacco cutworm (Spodoptera litura) larvae showed that all of the three recombinant proteins caused paralysis, liquefaction and death. Injection of recombinant proteins into rice brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) nymphs showed higher insecticidal activities, among which a trypsin (AcVP2) caused 100% mortality postinjection at 1.27 pmol mg-1 body weight. CONCLUSION: A natural toolkit for the discovery of insecticidal toxins from predatory insects has been revealed by the present study. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Manejo cirúrgico de ferimento auto-infligido por arma de fogo em região maxilofacial / Surgical management of self-inflicted injury by gun in the maxillofacial region

INTRODUÇÃO: O manejo dos pacientes vítimas de PAF possui vertentes divergentes a respeito do tratamento cirúrgico, que pode ser realizado de forma imedata ou tardia. Em lesões auto-infligidas, a distância entre a arma e a região acometida é menor, causando consequências estéticas e funcionais mais devastadoras. Aliado ao fato desse tipo de trauma criar uma ferida suja devido à comunicação com a cavidade oral e seios paranasais, o manejo das lesões representam um desafio mesmo à cirurgiões experientes. OBJETIVO: Estre trabalho relata o manejo cirúrgico de uma ferida auto-infligida por arma de fogo que resultou em avulsão dos tecidos moles na região maxilofacial. DESCRIÇÃO DO CASO: Paciente do sexo masculino, 35 anos, vítima de projétil de arma de fogo auto-infligido em região maxilofacial, cursando com extenso ferimento em região de língua e mento. Clinicamente, o paciente não apresentava sinais de fratura em ossos da face. Ambos os ferimentos apresentavam secreção purulenta e o paciente manifestava disfonia devido a grande destruição tecidual. CONSIDERAÇÕES FINAIS: O tratamento de ferimentos por arma de fogo não só é um grande desafio para o cirurgião, como para toda a equipe multidisciplinar requerida para tais casos, visto que não há protocolos bem definidos para o tratamento dessas lesões(AU)

INTRODUCTION: The management of patients who are victims of FAP has divergent aspects regarding surgical treatment, which can be performed immediately or late. In self-inflicted injuries, the distance between the weapon and the affected region is smaller, causing more devastating aesthetic and functional consequences. Allied to the fact that this type of trauma creates a dirty wound due to the communication with the oral cavity and paranasal sinuses, the management of injuries represents a challenge even for experienced surgeons. OBJECTIVE: This paper reports the surgical management of a self-inflicted gunshot wound that resulted in soft tissue avulsion in the maxillofacial region. CASE DESCRIPTION: Male patient, 35 years old, victim of a self-inflicted firearm projectile in the maxillofacial region, coursing with extensive injury in the region of the tongue and chin. Clinically, the patient did not show signs of facial bone fractures. Both wounds had purulent secretion and the patient had dysphonia due to extensive tissue destruction. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS: The treatment of gunshot wounds is not only a great challenge for the surgeon, but also for the entire multidisciplinary team required for such cases, since there are no well-defined protocols for the treatment of these injuries(AU)

Molecular Identification of the Glutaredoxin 5 Gene That Plays Important Roles in Antioxidant Defense in Arma chinensis (Fallou).

Glutaredoxin (Grx) is a group of redox enzymes that control reactive oxygen species (ROS), traditionally defined as redox regulators. Recent research suggested that members of the Grx family may be involved in more biological processes than previously thought. Therefore, we cloned the AcGrx5 gene and identified its role in A. chinensis diapause. Sequence analysis revealed the ORF of AcGrx5 was 432 bp, encoding 143 amino acids, which was consistent with the homologous sequence of Halyomorpha halys. RT-qPCR results showed that AcGrx5 expression was the highest in the head, and compared with non-diapause conditions, diapause conditions significantly increased the expression of AcGrx5 in the developmental stages. Further, we found that 15 °C low-temperature stress significantly induced AcGrx5 expression, and the expression of antioxidant enzyme genes AcTrx2 and AcTrx-like were significantly increased after AcGrx5 knockdown. Following AcGrx5 silencing, there was a considerable rise in the levels of VC content, CAT activity, and hydrogen peroxide content, indicating that A. chinensis was exposed to high levels of reactive oxygen species. These results suggested that the AcGrx5 gene may play a key role in antioxidant defense.

Toxicological assessment of cadmium exposure through Hyphantria cunea larvae on the predation fitness of Arma chinensis.

Heavy metals are defined as an abiotic factor that affects the efficiency of biological pest control. This study constructed a cadmium (Cd)-polluted artificial diets-Hyphantria cunea-Arma chinensis food chain to analyze the effects of Cd exposure on the ability of A. chinensis to control H. cunea. The results revealed that Cd was transferred through the artificial diet to H. cunea larvae and A. chinensis nymphs via a biological amplification effect. After feeding on Cd-accumulated H. cunea larvae, the body weight of A. chinensis nymphs reduced, mortality increased, developmental duration prolonged, and the expression of growth regulatory genes (EX, cycE, and MER) decreased. Cd activated the antioxidant defense system of the nymphs, accompanied by a significant enhancement in the contents of H2O2 and MDA, marked damage to the midgut sub-microstructure, and a remarkable induction in the expression of genes crucial for the mitochondrial pathway/ER stress-apoptosis pathway. Cd significantly diminished the contents of total amino acids, glucose, free fatty acids, and expression of the genes (HK2, PFK, IDH1, and IDH2) essential for the TCA cycle and glycolysis in the nymphs. The preference of the A. chinensis nymphs to Cd-treated H. cunea larvae was evidently reduced. Cd diminished the search-ability, food intake, instantaneous attack rate, and maximum theoretical daily food intake but prolonged the feeding time of the nymphs. Taken together, Cd exposure reduces the ability of A. chinensis nymphs to control H. cunea and provides a new challenge for the efficiency of insect pest control using natural enemies. These findings have important reference value for optimizing pest control strategies in heavy metal polluted areas.

Capture of armA by a novel ISCR element, ISCR28.

ISCR28 is a fully functional and active member of the IS91-like family of insertion sequences. ISCR28 is 1,708-bp long and contains a 1,293-bp long putative open reading frame that codes a transposase. Sixty ISCR28-containing sequences from GenBank generated 27 non-repeat genetic contexts, all of which represented naturally occurring biological events that had occurred in a wide range of gram-negative organisms. Insertion of ISCR28 into target DNA preferred the presence of a 5'-GXXT-3' sequence at its terIS (replication terminator) end. Loss of the first 4 bp of its oriIS (origin of replication) likely caused ISCR28 to be trapped in ISApl1-based transposons or similar structures. Loss of terIS and fusion with a mobile element upstream likely promoted co-transfer of ISCR28 and the downstream resistance genes. ArmA and its downstream intact ISCR28 can be excised from recombinant pKD46 plasmids forming circular intermediates, further elucidating its activity as a transposase.

Genome-wide analysis of gustatory receptor genes and identification of the fructose gustatory receptor in Arma chinensis.

Gustatory receptors (GRs) allow insects to sense tastes in their external environment. Gustatory perception is crucial for distinguishing between beneficial and harmful or toxic compounds, affecting survival. This study is the first to identify and classify the GR genes and investigate their expression in the predatory Arma chinensis. Thirteen GR genes (ArmaGr1-ArmaGr13) were identified and classified into four families via phylogenetic analysis. In the predacious developmental stages, ArmaGr7 expression gradually increased from the 2nd to 5th instar stages and then to adults. However, ArmaGr7 was also highly expressed in the non-predation 1st instar nymph and egg stages. ArmaGr7 expression was localized in the antennae, scalpella, forelegs, wings, head, and midgut of male and female adults, with wings displaying the highest expression. Furthermore, ArmaGr7 expression was positively correlated with fructose solution intake; molecular docking results showed that fructose could effectively dock withArmaGr7. A protein structure comparison revealed that the ArmaGr7 structure was different from that of other GR43a-like proteins, which may be related to the gene splicing of the A. chinensis GR gene. These results elucidate the crucial role of ArmaGr7 in fructose recognition by A. chinensis and provide a foundation for further studies on gustatory perception.

Comparison of the effect of tea shoots during different seasons in Arma chinensis (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) reared on Ectropis grisescens (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) pupae.

In this study, we compared the growth, development, and fecundity of Arma chinensis (Fallou) reared on pupae of the geometrid Ectropis grisescens Warren fed on tea shoots during different seasons of the year. The raw data on life history were analyzed using the age-stage, 2-sex life table. When reared on spring or winter geometrid pupae, the duration of the immature stage of A. chinensis was significantly longer than in those produced during the summer or autumn. The survival rate of immature A. chinensis reared on autumn geometrid pupae was significantly lower compared to other treatments. Reproductive diapause was observed in adult A. chinensis reared on winter geometrid pupae. The adult preoviposition period (APOP), total preoviposition period (TPOP), and total longevity were significantly longer in A. chinensis reared on winter pupae than in the other treatments. The fecundity of A. chinensis reared on spring geometrid pupae was significantly lower than in the other treatments. The higher intrinsic rate of increase of the A. chinensis reared on summer pupae (r = 0.0966 day-1) and autumn pupae (r = 0.0983 day-1) resulted in higher fecundity, shorter immature duration, and shorter TPOP compared to the winter and spring populations. These findings can be utilized to enhance and sustain biological control of E. grisescens in tea plantations.

La dinámica del comercio ilegal de armas de fuego en Lima, Perú / The dynamics of the illegal firearms trade in Lima, Peru / A dinâmica do comércio ilegal de armas de fogo em Lima, Peru

El comercio ilegal de armas de fuego representa un problema significativo para mantener el orden y la seguridad del país, pues conlleva la adquisición de armas y municiones sin cumplir la normatividad y las regulaciones proporcionadas por el Estado, desviando la utilización de dichos equipos hacia la delincuencia. La investigación tiene como propósito analizar la dinámica del comercio ilegal de armas de fuego en Lima, Perú, mediante una metodología cualitativa y de diseño fenomenológico hermenéutico. La muestra incluye veinte funcionarios de la Policía Nacional del Perú (PNP) y la Superintendencia Nacional de Control de Servicios de Seguridad, Armas, Municiones y Explosivos de Uso Civil (Sucamec). La información se recolectó por medio de entrevistas semiestructuradas. El estudio concluye que el comercio ilegal de armas de fuego se estructura en tres fases clave: la primera fase determinada por la filtración o desvío de armas del mercado legal al ilegal, debido a la falta de control y fiscalización por las autoridades pertinentes. La segunda fase implica la creación de un mercado ilegal en espacios itinerantes, donde participan diversos actores, como intermediarios y compradores. La tercera y última fase comprende la consumación del delito, incluye la entrega del arma y el pago bajo estrictas medidas de seguridad para asegurar la impunidad de los involucrados.

The illegal trade in firearms represents a significant problem for the maintenance of order and security in the country, as it leads to the acquisition of arms and ammunition without complying with the norms and regulations provided by the State, diverting the use of such equipment towards crime. The purpose of this research is to analyse the dynamics of the illegal firearms trade in Lima, Peru, using a qualitative methodology and a hermeneutic phenomenological design. The sample includes twenty officers from the Peruvian National Police (PNP) and the National Superintendence for the Control of Security Services, firearms, Ammunition and Explosives for Civilian Use (Sucamec). The information was collected through semi-structured interviews. The study concludes that the illegal firearms trade is structured in three key phases: the first phase determined by the leakage or diversion of arms from the legal to the illegal market, due to the lack of control and oversight by the relevant authorities. The second phase involves the creation of an illegal market in itinerant spaces, where various actors, such as intermediaries and buyers, participate. The third and final phase involves the consummation of the crime, including the delivery of the weapon and payment under strict security measures to ensure the impunity of those involved.

O comércio ilegal de armas de fogo representa um problema significativo para a manutenção da ordem e da segurança no país, pois leva à aquisição de armas e munições sem o cumprimento das normas e regulamentos fornecidos pelo Estado, desviando o uso desses equipamentos para o crime. O objetivo desta pesquisa é analisar a dinâmica do comércio ilegal de armas de fogo em Lima, Peru, usando uma metodologia qualitativa e um desenho fenomenológico hermenêutico. A amostra inclui vinte policiais da Polícia Nacional do Peru (PNP) e da Superintendência Nacional de Controle de Serviços de Segurança, Armas, Munições e Explosivos para Uso Civil (Sucamec). As informações foram coletadas por meio de entrevistas semiestruturadas. O estudo conclui que o comércio ilegal de armas de fogo está estruturado em três fases principais: a primeira fase é determinada pelo vazamento ou desvio de armas do mercado legal para o ilegal, devido à falta de controle e fiscalização por parte das autoridades competentes. A segunda fase envolve a criação de um mercado ilegal em espaços itinerantes, onde vários atores, como intermediários e compradores, participam. A terceira e última fase envolve a consumação do crime, incluindo a entrega da arma e o pagamento sob rigorosas medidas de segurança para garantir a impunidade dos envolvidos.

Spinal gunshot wounds: A retrospective, multicenter, cohort study. / [Artículo traducido] Lesiones vertebrales por proyectil de arma de fuego: estudio de cohorte retrospectivo, multicéntrico.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: To describe the demographic and clinical characteristics and treatment of patients with spinal gunshot wounds across Latin America. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective, multicenter cohort study of patients treated for gunshot wounds to the spine spanning 12 institutions across Latin America between January 2015 and January 2022. Demographic and clinical data were recorded, including the time of injury, initial assessment, characteristics of the vertebral gunshot injury, and treatment. RESULTS: Data on 423 patients with spinal gunshot injuries were extracted from institutions in Mexico (82%), Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela. Patients were predominantly male civilians in low-risk-of-violence professions, and of lower/middle social status, and a sizeable majority of gunshots were from low-energy firearms. Vertebral injuries mainly affected the thoracic and lumbar spine. Neurological injury was documented in 320 (76%) patients, with spinal cord injuries in 269 (63%). Treatment was largely conservative, with just 90 (21%) patients treated surgically, principally using posterior open midline approach to the spine (79; 87%). Injury features distinguishing surgical from non-surgical cases were neurological compromise (P = 0.004), canal compromise (P < 0.001), dirty wounds (P < 0.001), bullet or bone fragment remains in the spinal canal (P < 0.001) and injury pattern (P < 0.001). After a multivariate analysis through a binary logistic regression model, the aforementioned variables remained statistically significant except neurological compromise. CONCLUSIONS: In this multicenter study of spinal gunshot victims, most were treated non-surgically, despite neurological injury in 76% and spinal injury in 63% of patients.

Impact of COVID-19 on public social life and mental health: a statistical study of google trends data from the USA.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant disruption in the social lives and mental health of people across the world. This study aims to asses the effect of using internet search volume data. We categorize the widely searched keywords on the internet in several categories, which are relevant in analyzing the public mental health status. Corresponding to each category of keywords, we conduct an appropriate statistical analysis to identify significant changes in the search pattern during the course of the pandemic. Binary segmentation method of changepoint detection, along with the combination of ARMA-GARCH models are utilized in this analysis. It helps us detect how people's behavior changed in phases and whether the severity of the pandemic brought forth those shifts in behaviors. Interestingly, we find that rather than the severity of the outbreak, the long duration of the pandemic has affected the public health status more. The phases, however, align well with the so-called COVID-19 waves and are consistent for different aspects of social and mental health. We further observe that the results are typically similar for different states as well.

Dynamic correction of soft measurement model for evaporation process parameters based on ARMA.

To address the significant soft measurement errors in traditional static models for evaporation process parameters, which are characterized by continuity and cumulativity, this paper proposes a dynamic correction method for soft measurement models of evaporation process parameters based on the autoregressive moving-average model (ARMA). Initially, the Powell's directional evolution (Powell-DE) algorithm is utilized to identify the autoregressive order and moving average order of the ARMA model. Subsequently, the prediction error of a mechanism-reduced robust least squares support vector machine ensemble model is utilized as input. An error time series prediction model, which compensates for the errors in the autoregressive moving average model, is then applied for dynamic estimation of the prediction error. Finally, an integration strategy using the entropy method is employed to combine the static soft measurement model, based on the mechanism-reduced robust least squares support vector machine, with the dynamic correction soft measurement model, which is based on the error time series compensation of the ARMA model. The new model is analyzed and validated using production data from an alumina plant's evaporation process. Compared to traditional models, the new model demonstrates significantly improved prediction accuracy and is capable of dynamic prediction of evaporation process parameters.

Identification of neuropeptides and their G protein-coupled receptors in the predatory stink bug, Arma custos (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae).

The predatory stink bug Arma custos has been selected as an effective biological control agent and has been successfully massly bred and released into fields for the control of a diverse insect pests. As a zoophytophagous generalist, A. custos relies on a complex neuropeptide signaling system to prey on distinct food and adapt to different environments. However, information about neuropeptide signaling genes in A. custos has not been reported to date. In the present study, a total of 57 neuropeptide precursor transcripts and 41 potential neuropeptide G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) transcripts were found mainly using our sequenced transcriptome data. Furthermore, a number of neuropeptides and their GPCR receptors that were enriched in guts and salivary glands of A. custos were identified, which might play critical roles in feeding and digestion. Our study provides basic information for an in-depth understanding of biological and ecological characteristics of the predatory bug and would aid in the development of better pest management strategies based on the effective utilization and protection of beneficial natural enemies.

Time-Controlled Adaptive Ventilation (TCAV): a personalized strategy for lung protection.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) alters the dynamics of lung inflation during mechanical ventilation. Repetitive alveolar collapse and expansion (RACE) predisposes the lung to ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI). Two broad approaches are currently used to minimize VILI: (1) low tidal volume (LVT) with low-moderate positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP); and (2) open lung approach (OLA). The LVT approach attempts to protect already open lung tissue from overdistension, while simultaneously resting collapsed tissue by excluding it from the cycle of mechanical ventilation. By contrast, the OLA attempts to reinflate potentially recruitable lung, usually over a period of seconds to minutes using higher PEEP used to prevent progressive loss of end-expiratory lung volume (EELV) and RACE. However, even with these protective strategies, clinical studies have shown that ARDS-related mortality remains unacceptably high with a scarcity of effective interventions over the last two decades. One of the main limitations these varied interventions demonstrate to benefit is the observed clinical and pathologic heterogeneity in ARDS. We have developed an alternative ventilation strategy known as the Time Controlled Adaptive Ventilation (TCAV) method of applying the Airway Pressure Release Ventilation (APRV) mode, which takes advantage of the heterogeneous time- and pressure-dependent collapse and reopening of lung units. The TCAV method is a closed-loop system where the expiratory duration personalizes VT and EELV. Personalization of TCAV is informed and tuned with changes in respiratory system compliance (CRS) measured by the slope of the expiratory flow curve during passive exhalation. Two potentially beneficial features of TCAV are: (i) the expiratory duration is personalized to a given patient's lung physiology, which promotes alveolar stabilization by halting the progressive collapse of alveoli, thereby minimizing the time for the reopened lung to collapse again in the next expiration, and (ii) an extended inspiratory phase at a fixed inflation pressure after alveolar stabilization gradually reopens a small amount of tissue with each breath. Subsequently, densely collapsed regions are slowly ratcheted open over a period of hours, or even days. Thus, TCAV has the potential to minimize VILI, reducing ARDS-related morbidity and mortality.

A Mixed-Effects Model in Which the Parameters of the Autocorrelated Error Structure Can Differ between Individuals.

Research in psychology has seen a rapid increase in the usage of experience sampling methods and daily diary methods. The data that result from using these methods are typically analyzed with a mixed-effects or a multilevel model because it allows testing hypotheses about the time course of the longitudinally assessed variable or the influence of time-varying predictors in a simple way. Here, we describe an extension of this model that does not only allow to include random effects for the mean structure but also for the residual variance, for the parameter of an autoregressive process of order 1 and/or the parameter of a moving average process of order 1. After we have introduced this extension, we show how to estimate the parameters with maximum likelihood. Because the likelihood function contains complex integrals, we suggest using adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature and Quasi-Monte Carlo integration to approximate it. We illustrate the models using a real data example and also report the results of a small simulation study in which the two integral approximation methods are compared.

Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease: Pathophysiology and New Treatment Trends.

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is caused by the reflux of gastric contents into the esophagus due to a decline in esophageal clearance and anti-reflux barrier mechanisms. Mucosal injury is caused by a combination of gastric juice directly damaging the esophageal mucosa and the immune and inflammatory mechanism in which inflammatory cytokines released from the esophageal mucosal epithelium cause neutrophil migration, triggering inflammation. Gastric secretion inhibitors are the first-line treatment for GERD, but they can be combined with prokinetic agents and Chinese herbal remedies. However, pharmacotherapy cannot improve anatomical problems or prevent physical causes of GERD, such as reflux of non-acidic contents. Therefore, surgery can be warranted, depending on the pathology. Intraluminal endoscopic therapy, which is both less invasive and more effective than surgery, was recently developed and applied in Europe and the United States. In Japan, intraluminal endoscopic therapies, such as anti-reflux mucosectomy, anti-reflux mucosal ablation, and endoscopic submucosal dissection, for GERD have been independently developed.

Tendência temporal da mortalidade por homicídios femininos por arma de fogo nos estados da região Nordeste do Brasil no período 2000-2019 / Temporal trends in female firearm homicides across states in the Northeast of Brazil during the period 2000-2019

Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a tendência temporal dos homicídios femininos perpetrados por arma de fogo nos estados nordestinos, no período de 2000 a 2019. Estudo ecológico, com dados de homicídios por arma de fogo em mulheres com 10 ou mais anos, registrados no Sistema de Informação Sobre Mortalidade. Os dados de mortalidade e os dados populacionais foram obtidos junto ao Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde. Após a correção dos registros de óbito para qualidade e cobertura dos óbitos, as taxas de mortalidade foram calculadas Tendências foram avaliadas por regressão binomial negativa, classificadas de acordo com o valor do risco relativo e valor de p. Calculou-se a variação percentual anual média das taxas de mortalidade. A região apresentou 4,40 homicídios por arma de fogo por 100 mil mulheres no período do estudo, maiores coeficientes em Alagoas (5,40), na faixa etária de 15-19 anos (5,84), e via pública (1,58). As tendências foram ascendentes, com exceção de Pernambuco em que foi descendente, e estacionárias em Alagoas. Os homicídios por arma de fogo em via pública apresentaram maior percentual de aumento no período estudado. Observou-se tendência ascendente nos homicídios femininos perpetrados por arma de fogo na maioria dos estados nordestinos.

Abstract This article aims to analyze temporal trends in female firearm homicides in the Northeast of Brazil during the period 2000-2019. We conducted an ecological study using data on firearm homicides of women aged 10 years and over obtained from the Mortality Information System. The population data were taken from the 2010 Census. Homicide rates were calculated after correcting the data to account for differences in the quality and coverage of death records. Trends were assessed using negative binomial regression and described using relative risk and p values. Average annual percentage changes in homicide rates were also calculated. The regional firearm homicide rate during the study period was 4.40 per 100,000 women. Rates were highest in the state of Alagoas (5.40), the 15-19 age group (5.84) and in public thoroughfares (1.58). Trends were upward across all states except Pernambuco, where they were downward, and Alagoas, where rates were stationary. The place of occurrence with the highest percentage increase in firearm homicides over the study period was public thoroughfares. Female firearm homicides showed an upward trend across most northeastern states.

Inferred Rate of Default as a Credit Risk Indicator in the Bulgarian Bank System.

The inferred rate of default (IRD) was first introduced as an indicator of default risk computable from information publicly reported by the Bulgarian National Bank. We have provided a more detailed justification for the suggested methodology for forecasting the IRD on the bank-group- and bank-system-level based on macroeconomic factors. Furthermore, we supply additional empirical evidence in the time-series analysis. Additionally, we demonstrate that IRD provides a new perspective for comparing credit risk across bank groups. The estimation methods and model assumptions agree with current Bulgarian regulations and the IFRS 9 accounting standard. The suggested models could be used by practitioners in monthly forecasting the point-in-time probability of default in the context of accounting reporting and in monitoring and managing credit risk.

Healthcare Equipment and Personnel Reservoirs of Carbapenem-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii Epidemic Clones in Intensive Care Units in a Tunisian Hospital.

Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) strains can cause severe and difficult-to-treat infections in patients with compromised general health. CRAB strains disseminate rapidly in nosocomial settings by patient-to-patient contact, through medical devices and inanimate reservoirs. The occurrence of CRAB in patients residing in the intensive care units (ICUs) of the Sahloul University hospital in Sousse, Tunisia is high. The objective of the current study was to determine whether the surfaces of items present in five ICU wards and the medical personnel there operating could serve as reservoirs for CRAB strains. Furthermore, CRAB isolates from patients residing in the ICUs during the sampling campaign were analyzed for genome comparison with isolates from the ICUs environment. Overall, 206 items were screened for CRAB presence and 27 (14%) were contaminated with a CRAB isolate. The items were located in several areas of three ICUs. Eight of the 54 (15%) screened people working in the wards were colonized by CRAB on the hands. Patients residing in the ICUs were infected with CRAB strains sharing extensive genomic similarity with strains recovered in the nosocomial environment. The strains belonged to three sub-clades of the internationally disseminated clone (ST2). A clone emerging in the Mediterranean basin (ST85) was detected as well. The strains were OXA-23 or NDM-1 producers and were also pan-aminoglycoside resistant due to the presence of the armA gene. Hygiene measures are urgent to be implemented in the Sahloul hospital to avoid further spread of difficult-to-treat CRAB strains and preserve health of patients and personnel operating in the ICU wards.