The role of alcohol control policies in the reversal of alcohol consumption levels and resulting attributable harms in China.

Yearly adult per capita consumption of alcohol in China between 2016 and 2019 decreased by 2.4 litres of pure alcohol, or 33%. According to the World Health Organization, this decrease in consumption was accompanied by reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality of 23% between 2015 and 2019. This paper examines the contribution of alcohol control policies in China to these public health gains. A systematic search of the literature was conducted on alcohol control policies and their effectiveness in China as part of a larger search of all countries in WHO Western Pacific Region. In addition to articles on empirical evidence on the impact of such alcohol control policies, we also searched for reviews. The plausibility of changes of traditional alcohol control policies (taxation increases, availability restrictions, restriction on advertisement and marketing, drink-driving laws, screening and brief interventions) in explaining reductions of consumption levels and attributable mortality rates was explored. There was some progress in the successful implementation of strict drink-driving policies, which could explain reductions in traffic injuries, including fatalities. Other traditional alcohol control policies seem to have played a minimal role in reducing alcohol consumption and attributable harms during the time period 2016-2019. However, an anti-corruption campaign was extensive enough to have substantially contributed to these reductions. The campaign prohibited the consumption of alcoholic beverages in everyday life of government officials and thus contributed to a de-normalization of alcohol. While this anti-corruption campaign was the only policy to potentially explain marked decreases in levels of alcohol consumption and attributable mortality, more detailed research is required to determine exactly how the campaign achieved these decreases.

Incidence of acute kidney injury and attributive mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome randomized trials.

PURPOSE: The development of acute kidney injury (AKI) after the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) reduces the chance of organ recovery and survival. The purpose of this study was to examine the AKI rate and attributable mortality in ARDS patients. METHODS: We performed an individual patient-data analysis including 10 multicenter randomized controlled trials conducted over 20 years. We employed a Super Learner ensemble technique, including a time-dependent analysis, to estimate the adjusted risk of AKI. We calculated the mortality attributable to AKI using an inverse probability of treatment weighting estimator integrated with the Super Learner. RESULTS: There were 5148 patients included in this study. The overall incidence of AKI was 43.7% (n = 2251). The adjusted risk of AKI ranged from 38.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35.7 to 41.9%) in ARMA, to 55.8% in ROSE (95% CI, 51.9 to 59.6%). 37.1% recovered rapidly from AKI, with a significantly lower recovery rate in recent trials (P < 0.001). The 90-day excess in mortality attributable to AKI was 15.4% (95% CI, 12.8 to 17.9%). It decreased from 25.4% in ARMA (95% CI, 18.7 to 32%), to 11.8% in FACTT (95% CI, 5.5 to 18%) and then remained rather stable over time. The 90-day overall excess in mortality attributable to acute kidney disease was 28.4% (95% CI, 25.3 to 31.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of AKI appears to be stable over time in patients with ARDS enrolled in randomized trials. The development of AKI remains a significant contributing factor to mortality. These estimates are essential for designing future clinical trials for AKI prevention or treatment.

Unequal Health Risks and Attributable Mortality Burden of Source-Specific PM2.5 in China.

Anthropogenic emissions, originating from human activities, stand as the primary contributors to PM2.5, which is recognized as a global health threat. The disease burden associated with PM2.5 has been extensively documented. However, the prevailing estimations have predominantly relied on PM2.5 exposure-response functions, neglecting the distinct risks posed by PM2.5 from various sources. China has experienced a significant reduction in the PM2.5 concentration due to stringent emission controls. With diverse sources and abundant mortality data, this situation provides a unique opportunity to estimate short-term source-specific attributable mortality. Our approach involves an integrated unequal health risk-oriented modeling in China, incorporating a source-oriented Community Multiscale Air Quality model, an adjustment and downscaling method for exposure measurement, a generalized linear model with random-effects meta-analysis, and premature mortality estimation. Adhering to the unequal health risk concept, we calculated the attributable mortality of multiple PM2.5 sources by determining the source risk-adjusted factor. In this study, we observed varying excess risks associated with multiple PM2.5 sources, with transportation-related PM2.5 exhibiting the most substantial association. An interquartile range increase (7.65 µg/m3) was linked to a 1.98% higher daily nonaccidental mortality. Residential use- and transportation-related PM2.5 emerged as the two principal sources of premature mortality. In 2018, a remarkable 53,381 avoiding deaths were estimated compared to 2013, and over 67% of these were attributed to reductions in coal-dependent sources. Notably, transportation-related PM2.5 emerged as the largest contributor to premature mortality in 2018. This study underscores the significance of a new source-oriented health risk assessment to support actions aimed at reducing air pollution. It strongly advocates for heightened attention to PM2.5 reductions in the transportation sector in China.

Attributable mortality of acute kidney injury among critically ill patients with sepsis: a multicenter, retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis and acute kidney injury (AKI) are common severe diseases in the intensive care unit (ICU). This study aimed to estimate the attributable mortality of AKI among critically ill patients with sepsis and to assess whether AKI was an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality. METHODS: The information we used was derived from a multicenter prospective cohort study conducted in 18 Chinese ICUs, focusing on septic patients post ICU admission. The patients were categorized into two groups: those who developed AKI (AKI group) within seven days following a sepsis diagnosis and those who did not develop AKI (non-AKI group). Using propensity score matching (PSM), patients were matched 1:1 as AKI and non-AKI groups. We then calculated the mortality rate attributable to AKI in septic patients. Furthermore, a survival analysis was conducted comparing the matched AKI and non-AKI septic patients. The primary outcome of interest was the 30-day mortality rate following the diagnosis of sepsis. RESULTS: Out of the 2175 eligible septic patients, 61.7% developed AKI. After the application of PSM, a total of 784 septic patients who developed AKI were matched in a 1:1 ratio with 784 septic patients who did not develop AKI. The overall 30-day attributable mortality of AKI was 6.6% (95% CI 2.3 ∼ 10.9%, p = 0.002). A subgroup analysis revealed that the 30-day attributable mortality rates for stage 1, stage 2, and stage 3 AKI were 0.6% (95% CI -5.9 ∼ 7.2%, p = 0.846), 4.7% (95% CI -3.1 ∼ 12.4%, p = 0.221) and 16.8% (95% CI 8.1 ∼ 25.2%, p < 0.001), respectively. Particularly noteworthy was that stage 3 AKI emerged as an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality, possessing an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.80 (95% CI 1.31 ∼ 2.47, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The overall 30-day attributable mortality of AKI among critically ill patients with sepsis was 6.6%. Stage 3 AKI had the most significant contribution to 30-day mortality, while stage 1 and stage 2 AKI did not increase excess mortality.

Attributable mortality of ARDS among critically ill patients with sepsis: a multicenter, retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Both sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are common severe diseases in the intensive care unit (ICU). There is no large-scale multicenter study to clarify the attributable mortality of ARDS among septic patients. This study aimed to evaluate the excess mortality of ARDS in critically ill patients with sepsis. METHODS: The data were obtained from a multicenter, prospective cohort study in 18 Chinese ICUs between January 2014 and August 2015. The study population was septic patients after ICU admission. The patients were categorized into two groups: those who developed ARDS (ARDS group) within seven days following a sepsis diagnosis and those who did not develop ARDS (non-ARDS group). Applying propensity score matching (PSM), patients were matched 1:1 as ARDS and non-ARDS groups. Mortality attributed to ARDS was calculated. Subsequently, we conducted a survival analysis to estimate the impact of ARDS on mortality. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality after sepsis diagnosis. RESULTS: 2323 septic patients were eligible, 67.8% developed ARDS. After PSM, 737 patients with ARDS were matched 1:1 with 737 non-ARDS patients. ARDS's overall 30-day attributable mortality was 11.9% (95% CI 7.5-16.3%, p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that the 30-day attributable mortality of mild, moderate, and severe ARDS was 10.5% (95% CI 4.0-16.8%, p < 0.001), 11.6% (95% CI 4.7-18.4%, p < 0.001) and 18.1% (95% CI 4.5-30.9%, p = 0.006), respectively. ARDS was an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.30 (95% CI 1.03-1.64, p = 0.027), 1.49 (95% CI 1.20-1.85, p < 0.001), and 1.95 (95% CI 1.51-2.52, p < 0.001) for mild, moderate, and severe ARDS, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The overall 30-day attributable mortality of ARDS among critically ill patients with sepsis was 11.9%. Compared with mild and moderate ARDS, severe ARDS contributed more to death. ARDS was significantly associated with an increase in the 30-day mortality.

Smoking-attributable mortality by sex in the 27 Brazilian federal units: 2019.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to estimate smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) in the population aged 35 years and over in Brazil's 27 federal units by sex, in 2019. STUDY DESIGN: This is an attributable mortality analysis. METHODS: We applied a method dependent on the prevalence of smoking, based on the population attributable fractions. Data on mortality due to causes causally related to smoking were derived from Brazil's Death Registry, data on prevalence of smoking from a survey conducted in Brazil in 2019, and data on relative risks from five US cohorts. Crude and age-adjusted SAM rates were calculated by sex. Estimates of SAM were calculated by specific causes of death and major mortality groups for each federal unit by sex. RESULTS: In 2019, smoking caused 480 deaths per day in Brazil. Although the SAM varied among the federal units, the pattern is not clear, with the greatest difference being between Rio Grande do Sul (crude rate: 248.8/100,000 inhabitants) and Amazonas (106.0/100,000). When the rates were adjusted by age, the greatest differences were observed between Acre (271.1/100,000) and Distrito Federal (131.1/100,000). SAM was higher in males; however, while the main specific cause of SAM in men was ischemic heart disease, in women it was chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The major mortality group having the greatest impact on SAM across all federal units was the cardiometabolic diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The variability in the burden of SAM in the different regions of Brazil reaffirms the need for SAM data disaggregated at the geographic level.

Distributions of alcohol use and alcohol-caused death and disability in Canada: Defining alcohol harm density functions and new perspectives on the prevention paradox.

AIMS: The aims of this study were to examine the distribution of alcohol use and to define 'harm density functions' representing distributions of alcohol-caused health harm in Canada, by sex, towards better understanding which groups of drinkers experience the highest aggregate harms. DESIGN: This was an epidemiological modeling study using survey and administrative data on alcohol exposure, death and disability and risk relationships from epidemiological meta-analyses. SETTING: This work took place in Canada, 2019. PARTICIPANTS: Canadians aged 15 years or older participated. MEASUREMENTS: Measures included modeled life-time mean daily alcohol use in grams of pure alcohol (ethanol) per day, alcohol-caused deaths and alcohol-caused disability-adjusted life-years. FINDINGS: As a life-time average, more than half of Canadians aged 15+ (62.8% females, 46.9% males) use fewer than 10 g of pure alcohol per day (g/day). By volume, the top 10% of the population consume 45.9% of the total ethanol among males and 47.1% of the total ethanol among females. The remaining 90% of the population experience a slim majority of alcohol-caused deaths (males 55.3%, females 46.9%). Alcohol harm density functions compose the size of the using population and the risk experienced at each volume level to show that the population-level harm experienced is highest for males at 25 g/day and females at 13 g/day. CONCLUSIONS: Almost 50% of alcohol use in Canada is concentrated among the highest 10% of drinkers, but more than half of the alcohol-caused deaths in Canada in 2019 were experienced by the bottom 90% of the population by average volume, providing evidence for the prevention paradox. New alcohol harm density functions provide insight into the aggregate health harm experienced across the mean alcohol use spectrum and may therefore be used to help determine where alcohol policies should be targeted for highest efficacy.

Alcohol-attributable mortality and alcohol control policy in the Baltic Countries and Poland in 2001-2020: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Baltic countries-Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia-are characterized by a high rate of fully alcohol-attributable mortality, compared with Poland. Alcohol control policy measures implemented since 2001 in the Baltic countries included a restriction on availability and an increase in excise taxation, among others. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the relationship between alcohol control policy implementation and alcohol-attributable mortality in the Baltic countries and Poland. METHODS: Alcohol-attributable mortality data for 2001-2020 was defined by codes 100% alcohol-attributable for persons aged 15 years and older in the Baltic countries and Poland. Alcohol control policies implemented between 2001 and 2020 were identified, and their impact on alcohol-attributable mortality was evaluated using an interrupted time-series methodology by employing a generalized additive model. RESULTS: Alcohol-attributable mortality was significantly higher in the Baltic countries, compared with Poland, for both males and females. In the final reduced model, alcohol control policy significantly reduced male alcohol-attributable mortality by 7.60% in the 12 months post-policy implementation. For females, the alcohol control policy mean-shift effect was higher, resulting in a significant reduction of alcohol-attributable mortality by 10.77% in the 12 months post-policy implementation. The interaction effects of countries and policy tested in the full model were not statistically significant, which indicated that the impact of alcohol control policy on alcohol-attributable mortality did not differ across countries for both males and females. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the findings of the current study, alcohol control policy in the form of reduced availability and increased taxation was associated with a reduction in alcohol-attributable mortality among both males and females.

Weekly pattern of alcohol-attributable male mortality before and after imposing limits on hours of alcohol sale in Lithuania in 2018.

AIMS: From 1 January 2018, the number of retail hours for the sale of alcohol was reduced from 14 to 5 hours on Sundays and from 14 to 10 hours on the other days of the week in Lithuania. The significant reduction of hours for the sale of alcohol on Sundays may have affected the distribution of alcohol-attributable deaths during the week. This study aimed to examine the change in the weekly pattern of alcohol-attributable male mortality before and after imposing limits on the hours when alcohol can be sold. METHODS: Age-standardised male death rates by days of the week were calculated for four groups according to cause of death: alcohol poisoning (X45), all external causes of death (V01-Y98), diseases of the circulatory system (I00-I99) and all other causes of death. We compared age-standardised death rates for two periods: before (2015-2017) and after (2018-2019) the intervention. Mortality and population data were obtained from the Lithuanian Institute of Hygiene and Human Mortality Database. RESULTS: We found that during 2018-2019, earlier observed peak in age-standardised death rates for external causes of death on Sunday diminished, and this day no longer differed from the weekly average. The same tendency was also observed for the Monday excess mortality due to circulatory diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction of the hours when alcohol can be sold from the beginning of 2018 was associated with a change in a weekly pattern of alcohol-attributable male mortality. However, more studies are needed to examine the causes of the change in mortality pattern.

Mortality and morbidity related to hepatitis C virus infection in hospitalized adults-A propensity score matched analysis.

The World Health Organization (WHO) aims to reduce HCV mortality, but estimates are difficult to obtain. We aimed to identify electronic health records of individuals with HCV infection, and assess mortality and morbidity. We applied electronic phenotyping strategies on routinely collected data from patients hospitalized at a tertiary referral hospital in Switzerland between 2009 and 2017. Individuals with HCV infection were identified using International Classification of Disease (ICD)-10 codes, prescribed medications and laboratory results (antibody, PCR, antigen or genotype test). Controls were selected using propensity score methods (matching by age, sex, intravenous drug use, alcohol abuse and HIV co-infection). Main outcomes were in-hospital mortality and attributable mortality (in HCV cases and study population). The non-matched dataset included records from 165,972 individuals (287,255 hospital stays). Electronic phenotyping identified 2285 stays with evidence of HCV infection (1677 individuals). Propensity score matching yielded 6855 stays (2285 with HCV, 4570 controls). In-hospital mortality was higher in HCV cases (RR 2.10, 95%CI 1.64 to 2.70). Among those infected, 52.5% of the deaths were attributable to HCV (95%CI 38.9 to 63.1). When cases were matched, the fraction of deaths attributable to HCV was 26.9% (HCV prevalence: 33%), whilst in the non-matched dataset, it was 0.92% (HCV prevalence: 0.8%). In this study, HCV infection was strongly associated with increased mortality. Our methodology may be used to monitor the efforts towards meeting the WHO elimination targets and underline the importance of electronic cohorts as a basis for national longitudinal surveillance.

Attributable mortality due to nosocomial sepsis in Brazilian hospitals: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Nosocomial sepsis is a major healthcare issue, but there are few data on estimates of its attributable mortality. We aimed to estimate attributable mortality fraction (AF) due to nosocomial sepsis. METHODS: Matched 1:1 case-control study in 37 hospitals in Brazil. Hospitalized patients in participating hospitals were included. Cases were hospital non-survivors and controls were hospital survivors, which were matched by admission type and date of discharge. Exposure was defined as occurrence of nosocomial sepsis, defined as antibiotic prescription plus presence of organ dysfunction attributed to sepsis without an alternative reason for organ failure; alternative definitions were explored. Main outcome measurement was nosocomial sepsis-attributable fractions, estimated using inversed-weight probabilities methods using generalized mixed model considering time-dependency of sepsis occurrence. RESULTS: 3588 patients from 37 hospitals were included. Mean age was 63 years and 48.8% were female at birth. 470 sepsis episodes occurred in 388 patients (311 in cases and 77 in control group), with pneumonia being the most common source of infection (44.3%). Average AF for sepsis mortality was 0.076 (95% CI 0.068-0.084) for medical admissions; 0.043 (95% CI 0.032-0.055) for elective surgical admissions; and 0.036 (95% CI 0.017-0.055) for emergency surgeries. In a time-dependent analysis, AF for sepsis rose linearly for medical admissions, reaching close to 0.12 on day 28; AF plateaued earlier for other admission types (0.04 for elective surgery and 0.07 for urgent surgery). Alternative sepsis definitions yield different estimates. CONCLUSION: The impact of nosocomial sepsis on outcome is more pronounced in medical admissions and tends to increase over time. The results, however, are sensitive to sepsis definitions.

Excess Deaths in the United States Compared to 18 Other High-Income Countries.

The U.S. is exceptional among high-income countries for poor survival outcomes. Understanding the distribution of excess deaths by age, sex, and cause of death, is essential for bringing U.S. mortality in line with international peers. We use 2016 data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database and the Human Mortality Database to calculate excess deaths in the U.S. relative to each of 18 high-income comparison countries. The U.S. experiences excess mortality in every age and sex group, and for 16 leading causes of death. For example, the U.S. could potentially prevent 884,912 deaths by achieving the lower mortality rates of Japan, the comparison country yielding the largest number of excess deaths, which would be comparable to eliminating all deaths from heart disease, unintentional injuries, and diabetes mellitus. In contrast, the U.S. could potentially prevent just 176,825 deaths by achieving the lower mortality rates of Germany, the comparison country yielding the smallest number of excess deaths, which would be comparable to eliminating all deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases and assault (homicide). Existing research suggests that policies that improve social conditions and health behaviors are more likely to bring U.S. mortality in line with peer countries than policies that support health care access or new biomedical technologies. Achieving the death rates of peer countries could result in mortality reductions comparable to eliminating leading causes of death. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-023-09762-6.

Mortality Attributable to Bloodstream Infections Caused by Different Carbapenem-Resistant Gram-Negative Bacilli: Results From a Nationwide Study in Italy (ALARICO Network).

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to analyze mortality attributable to carbapenem-resistant (CR) gram-negative bacilli (GNB) in patients with bloodstream infections (BSIs). METHODS: Prospective multicentric study including patients with GNB-BSI from 19 Italian hospitals (June 2018-January 2020). Patients were followed-up to 30 days. Primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and attributable mortality. Attributable mortality was calculated in the following groups: Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC)-producing Enterobacterales, metallo-ß-lactamases (MBL)-producing Enterobacterales, CR-Pseudomonas aeruginosa (CRPA), CR-Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB). A multivariable analysis with hospital fixed-effect was built to identify factors associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted OR (aORs) were reported. Attributable mortality was calculated according to the DRIVE-AB Consortium. RESULTS: Overall, 1276 patients with monomicrobial GNB BSI were included: 723/1276 (56.7%) carbapenem-susceptible (CS)-GNB, 304/1276 (23.8%) KPC-, 77/1276 (6%) MBL-producing CRE, 61/1276 (4.8%) CRPA, and 111/1276 (8.7%) CRAB BSI. Thirty-day mortality in patients with CS-GNB BSI was 13.7% compared to 26.6%, 36.4%, 32.8% and 43.2% in patients with BSI by KPC-CRE, MBL-CRE, CRPA and CRAB, respectively (P < .001). On multivariable analysis, age, ward of hospitalization, SOFA score, and Charlson Index were factors associated with 30-day mortality, while urinary source of infection and early appropriate therapy resulted protective factors. Compared to CS-GNB, MBL-producing CRE (aOR 5.86, 95% CI 2.72-12.76), CRPA (aOR 1.99, 95% CI 1.48-5.95) and CRAB (aOR 2.65, 95% CI 1.52-4.61) were significantly associated with 30-day mortality. Attributable mortality rates were 5% for KPC-, 35% for MBL, 19% for CRPA, and 16% for CRAB. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with BSIs, carbapenem-resistance is associated with an excess of mortality, with MBL-producing CRE carrying the highest risk of death.

The attributable mortality of sepsis for acute kidney injury: a propensity-matched analysis based on multicenter prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Both sepsis and AKI are diseases of major concern in intensive care unit (ICU). This study aimed to evaluate the excess mortality attributable to sepsis for acute kidney injury (AKI). METHODS: A propensity score-matched analysis on a multicenter prospective cohort study in 18 Chinese ICUs was performed. Propensity score was sequentially conducted to match AKI patients with and without sepsis on day 1, day 2, and day 3-5. The primary outcome was hospital death of AKI patients. RESULTS: A total of 2008 AKI patients (40.9%) were eligible for the study. Of the 1010 AKI patients with sepsis, 619 (61.3%) were matched to 619 AKI patients in whom sepsis did not develop during the screening period of the study. The hospital mortality rate of matched AKI patients with sepsis was 205 of 619 (33.1%) compared with 150 of 619 (24.0%) for their matched AKI controls without sepsis (p = 0.001). The attributable mortality of total sepsis for AKI patients was 9.1% (95% CI: 4.8-13.3%). Of the matched patients with sepsis, 328 (53.0%) diagnosed septic shock. The attributable mortality of septic shock for AKI was 16.2% (95% CI: 11.3-20.8%, p < 0.001). Further, the attributable mortality of sepsis for AKI was 1.4% (95% CI: 4.1-5.9%, p = 0.825). CONCLUSIONS: The attributable hospital mortality of total sepsis for AKI were 9.1%. Septic shock contributes to major excess mortality rate for AKI than sepsis. REGISTRATION FOR THE MULTICENTER PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY: registration number ChiCTR-ECH-13003934.

Variation in smoking attributable all-cause mortality across municipalities in Belgium, 2018: application of a Bayesian approach for small area estimations.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is one of the leading causes of preventable mortality and morbidity worldwide, with the European Region having the highest prevalence of tobacco smoking among adults compared to other WHO regions. The Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) provides a reliable source of national and regional estimates of smoking prevalence; however, currently there are no estimates at a smaller geographical resolution such as the municipality scale in Belgium. This hinders the estimation of the spatial distribution of smoking attributable mortality at small geographical scale (i.e., number of deaths that can be attributed to tobacco). The objective of this study was to obtain estimates of smoking prevalence in each Belgian municipality using BHIS and calculate smoking attributable mortality at municipality level. METHODS: Data of participants aged 15 + on smoking behavior, age, gender, educational level and municipality of residence were obtained from the BHIS 2018. A Bayesian hierarchical Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) model was used to model the logit transformation of the design-based Horvitz-Thompson direct prevalence estimates. Municipality-level variables obtained from Statbel, the Belgian statistical office, were used as auxiliary variables in the model. Model parameters were estimated using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Conditional Predictive Ordinate (CPO) were computed to assess model fit. Population attributable fractions (PAF) were computed using the estimated prevalence of smoking in each of the 589 Belgian municipalities and relative risks obtained from published meta-analyses. Smoking attributable mortality was calculated by multiplying PAF with age-gender standardized and stratified number of deaths in each municipality. RESULTS: BHIS 2018 data included 7,829 respondents from 154 municipalities. Smoothed estimates for current smoking ranged between 11% [Credible Interval 3;23] and 27% [21;34] per municipality, and for former smoking between 4% [0;14] and 34% [21;47]. Estimates of smoking attributable mortality constituted between 10% [7;15] and 47% [34;59] of total number of deaths per municipality. CONCLUSIONS: Within-country variation in smoking and smoking attributable mortality was observed. Computed estimates should inform local public health prevention campaigns as well as contribute to explaining the regional differences in mortality.

Employment Status and Alcohol-Attributable Mortality Risk-A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Being unemployed has been linked to various health burdens. In particular, there appears to be an association between unemployment and alcohol-attributable deaths. However, risk estimates presented in a previous review were based on only two studies. Thus, we estimated updated sex-stratified alcohol-attributable mortality risks for unemployed compared with employed individuals. A systematic literature search was conducted in August 2020 using the following databases: Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Web of Science. The relative risk (RR) of dying from an alcohol-attributable cause of death for unemployed compared with employed individuals was summarized using sex-stratified random-effects DerSimonian-Laird meta-analyses. A total of 10 studies were identified, comprising about 14.4 million women and 19.0 million men, among whom there were about 3147 and 17,815 alcohol-attributable deaths, respectively. The pooled RRs were 3.64 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.04-6.66) and 4.93 (95% CI 3.45-7.05) for women and men, respectively. The findings of our quantitative synthesis provide evidence that being unemployed is associated with an over three-fold higher risk of alcohol-attributable mortality compared with being employed. Consequently, a global public health strategy connecting brief interventions and specialized care with social services assisting those currently unemployed is needed.

Attributable Mortality of Ventilator-associated Pneumonia Among Patients with COVID-19.

Rationale: Patients with a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are at higher risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) and may have an increased attributable mortality (increased or decreased risk of death if VAP occurs in a patient) and attributable fraction (proportion of deaths that are attributable to an exposure) of VAP-related mortality compared with subjects without coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Objectives: Estimation of the attributable mortality of the VAP among patients with COVID-19. Methods: Using the REA-REZO surveillance network, three groups of adult medical ICU patients were computed: control group (patients admitted between 2016 and 2019; prepandemic patients), pandemic COVID-19 group (PandeCOV+), and pandemic non-COVID-19 group (PandeCOV-) admitted during 2020. The primary outcome was the estimation of attributable mortality and attributable fraction related to VAP in these patients. Using multistate modeling with causal inference, the outcomes related to VAP were also evaluated. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 64,816 patients were included in the control group, 7,442 in the PandeCOV- group, and 1,687 in the PandeCOV+ group. The incidence of VAP was 14.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.9 to 14.6), 18.3 (95% CI, 17.3 to 19.4), and 31.9 (95% CI, 29.8 to 34.2) per 1,000 ventilation-days in each group, respectively. Attributable mortality at 90 days was 3.15% (95%, CI, 2.04% to 3.43%), 2.91% (95% CI, -0.21% to 5.02%), and 8.13% (95% CI, 3.54% to 12.24%), and attributable fraction of mortality at 90 days was 1.22% (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.63), 1.42% (95% CI, -0.11% to 2.61%), and 9.17% (95% CI, 3.54% to 12.24%) for the control, PandeCOV-, and PandeCOV+ groups, respectively. Except for the higher risk of developing VAP, the PandeCOV- group shared similar VAP characteristics with the control group. PandeCOV+ patients were at lower risk of death without VAP (hazard ratio, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.74) than the control group. Conclusions: VAP-attributable mortality was higher for patients with COVID-19, with more than 9% of the overall mortality related to VAP.

What Is the Optimal Follow-up Length for Mortality in Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia? Observations From a Systematic Review of Attributable Mortality.

Background: Deaths following Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) may be related or unrelated to the infection. In SAB therapeutics research, the length of follow-up should be optimized to capture most attributable deaths and minimize nonattributable deaths. We performed a secondary analysis of a systematic review to describe attributable mortality in SAB over time. Methods: We systematically searched Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from 1 January 1991 to 7 May 2021 for human observational studies of SAB. To be included in this secondary analysis, the study must have reported attributable mortality. Two reviewers extracted study data and assessed risk of bias independently. Pooling of study estimates was not performed due to heterogeneity in the definition of attributable deaths. Results: Twenty-four observational cohort studies were included. The median proportion of all-cause deaths that were attributable to SAB was 77% (interquartile range [IQR], 72%-89%) at 1 month and 62% (IQR, 58%-75%) at 3 months. At 1 year, this proportion was 57% in 1 study. In 2 studies that described the rate of increase in mortality over time, 2-week follow-up captured 68 of 79 (86%) and 48 of 57 (84%) attributable deaths that occurred by 3 months. By comparison, 1-month follow-up captured 54 of 57 (95%) and 56 of 60 (93%) attributable deaths that occurred by 3 months in 2 studies. Conclusions: The proportion of deaths that are attributable to SAB decreases as follow-up lengthens. Follow-up duration between 1 and 3 months seems optimal if evaluating processes of care that impact SAB mortality. Clinical Trials Registration: PROSPERO CRD42021253891.

Methodological guidelines for the estimation of attributable mortality using a prevalence-based method: the STREAMS-P tool.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence of strong links between exposure to different risk factors and life-threatening diseases. Assessing the burden of a risk factor on the population's mortality due to a given disease provides a clear picture of these links. The estimation of attributable mortality to a risk factor is the most widely used procedure for doing this. Although different methods are available to estimate attributable mortality, the prevalence-based methodology is the most frequent. The main objective of this study is to develop guidelines and checklists to STrengthen the design and REporting of Attributable Mortality Studies using a Prevalence-based method (STREAMS-P) and also to assess the quality of an already published study which uses this methodology. METHODS: The design of the guideline and checklists has been done in two phases. A development phase, where we set recommendations based on the review of the literature, and a validation phase, where we validated our recommendations against other published studies that have estimated attributable mortality using a prevalence-based method. RESULTS: We have developed and tested a guideline that includes the information required to perform a prevalence-based attributable mortality study to a given risk factor; a checklist of aspects that should be present when a report or a paper on attributable mortality is written or interpreted and a checklist of quality control criteria for reports or papers estimating attributable mortality. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, the STREAMS-P is the first set of criteria specifically created to assess the quality of such studies and it could be valuable for authors and readers interested in performing attributable mortality studies or interpreting their reliability.

Acute kidney injury-attributable mortality in critically ill patients with sepsis.

Background: To assess whether acute kidney injury (AKI) is independently associated with hospital mortality in ICU patients with sepsis, and estimate the excess AKI-related mortality attributable to AKI. Methods: We analyzed adult patients from two distinct retrospective critically ill cohorts: (1) Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC IV; n = 15,610) cohort and (2) Wenzhou (n = 1,341) cohort. AKI was defined by Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria. We applied multivariate logistic and linear regression models to assess the hospital and ICU mortality, hospital length-of-stay (LOS), and ICU LOS. The excess attributable mortality for AKI in ICU patients with sepsis was further evaluated. Results: AKI occurred in 5,225 subjects in the MIMIC IV cohort (33.5%) and 494 in the Wenzhou cohort (36.8%). Each stage of AKI was an independent risk factor for hospital mortality in multivariate logistic regression after adjusting for baseline illness severity. The excess attributable mortality for AKI was 58.6% (95% CI [46.8%-70.3%]) in MIMIC IV and 44.6% (95% CI [12.7%-76.4%]) in Wenzhou. Additionally, AKI was independently associated with increased ICU mortality, hospital LOS, and ICU LOS. Conclusion: Acute kidney injury is an independent risk factor for hospital and ICU mortality, as well as hospital and ICU LOS in critically ill patients with sepsis. Thus, AKI is associated with excess attributable mortality.