Global burden of lung cancer in women of childbearing age attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution: 1990-2021.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the global burden of lung cancer due to ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution in women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, with a focus on the temporal trends of the lung cancer burden attributable to ambient PM2.5 among women of childbearing age. RESULTS: In 2021, the global mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) number of lung cancer burden attributable to ambient PM2.5 among women of childbearing age were approximately 5205 and 247,211, respectively. The rate of lung cancer attributable to ambient PM2.5 among women of childbearing age increased between 1990 and 2021, with the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) increasing from 0.22 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]; 0.13 to 0.33) to 0.25 (95% UI; 0.14 to 0.37; average annual percent change [AAPC] = 0.40) and the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) increasing from 10.39 (95% UI; 5.96 to 15.72) to 12.06 (95% UI; 6.83 to 17.51; AAPC = 0.41). The middle sociodemographic index (SDI) region, East Asia, and China had the heaviest burden, while the high SDI region showed the highest decrease. ASMR and ASDR exhibited an inverted U-shaped relationship with the SDI. CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2021, the lung cancer burden attributable to ambient PM2.5 among women of childbearing age exhibited an increasing trend. Furthermore, increasing attention should be paid to the middle SDI region, East Asia, and China, as ambient PM pollution remains a critical target for intervention.

Tracking multidrug resistant tuberculosis: a 30-year analysis of global, regional, and national trends.

Objectives: To provide valuable insights for targeted interventions and resource allocation, our analysis delved into the multifaceted burden, trends, risks, and projections of multi drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Methods: This research employed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 dataset, which used a comparative risk assessment to quantify the disease burden resulting from risk factors. Initially, this database was utilized to extract details concerning the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, incidence, and the number of individuals afflicted by MDR-TB. Subsequently, regression analyses were conducted using the Joinpoint program to figure average annual percent change (AAPC) to ascertain the trend. Thirdly, the age-period-cohort model (APCM) was adopted to analyze evolutions in incidence and mortality. Finally, utilizing the Nordpred model within R software, we projected the incidence and mortality of MDR-TB from 2020 to 2030. Results: MDR-TB remained a pressing global health concern in regions with lower socio-demographic indexes (SDI), where the AAPC in DALYs topped 7% from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the cumulative DALYs attributed to MDR-TB tallied up to 4.2 million, with India, the Russian Federation, and China bearing the brunt. Notably, the incidence rates have shown a steadfast presence over the past decade, and a troubling forecast predicts an uptick in these areas from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, the risk of contracting MDR-TB grew with advancing age, manifesting most acutely among men aged 40+ in lower SDI regions. Strikingly, alcohol consumption had been identified as a significant contributor, surpassing the impacts of smoking and high fasting plasma glucose, leading to 0.7 million DALYs in 2019. Conclusions: A robust strategy is needed to end tuberculosis (TB) by 2030, especially in lower SDI areas.

Trend and driving factors in burden of age-related macular degeneration in older adults aged 60-89 years: a global analysis over three decades.

BACKGROUND: To explore temporal trends and determine driving factors of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) burden in older adults aged 60-89 years at global, regional and national levels from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) were extracted. Joinpoint regression analysis was adopted to calculate average annual percentage change and to identify the year with the most significant changes. Global trends were stratified by sex, age and sociodemographic index, and regional and national trends were explored. Decomposition analysis was conducted to determine what extent the forces of population size, age structure and epidemiologic change driving alterations of AMD burden. RESULTS: Globally, prevalence rate slightly increased whereas YLDs rate decreased. The year 2005 marked a turning point where both prevalence and YLDs started to decline. Regionally, Western Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest prevalence and YLDs rates in 2019, with East Asia experiencing the most notable rise in prevalence from 1990 to 2019. Global decomposition revealed that the increased case number was primarily driven by population growth and ageing, and epidemiological change was only detected to lessen but far from offset these impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was only slight increase or even decrease in prevalence and YLDs rates of AMD in older adults, the case number still nearly doubled, which may be primarily attributed to population growth and ageing, coupled with the emerging growing pattern of prevalence rate from 2015, collectively suggesting a huge challenge in control and management of AMD.

Effect of the lack of access to handwashing facilities on the global burden of lower respiratory infections, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.

A lack of access to handwashing facilities is a significant risk factor for lower respiratory infections(LRIs). However, no studies have reported epidemiologic changes in the burden of LRIs attributed to the lack of access to handwashing facilities. We conducted an integrated assessment of the burden of LRIs attributable to the lack of handwashing facilities from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. In 2019, 270,000 deaths were attributed to LRIs due to a lack of access to handwashing facilities, with DALYs reaching 14.02 million. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of LRIs caused by a lack of access to handwashing facilities was approximately 3.74, while the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) was reported to be 203.55 in 2019. Over the past 30 years, the burden of LRIs attributed to the lack of access to handwashing facilities has shown a global decline. In 2019, this burden was most pronounced in infants under 1 year of age and in those older than 95 years, reflecting the highest DALY (5591.83) and mortality rates (79.43), respectively. The burden of LRIs caused by the lack of access to handwashing facilities was found to be more severe in males and significantly more pronounced in regions with a low sociodemographic index (SDI), such as the Sahara African region. The development of targeted strategies to address the inadequate and unequal distribution of handwashing facilities holds important value in improving the disease burden of LRIs.

Global, regional, and national epidemiology of ischemic stroke from 1990 to 2021.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study aims to examine the global, regional, and national burden of ischemic stroke from 1990 to 2021. METHOD: We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database to comprehensively assess ischemic stroke indicators globally, regionally, and in 204 countries, including incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and Joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: In 2021, there were a total of 7,804,449 cases of ischemic stroke globally (95% uncertainty interval = 6,719,760-8,943,692), with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 92.39. This represents a declining trend compared to 1990, with an EAPC of -0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.76 to -0.58). Mortality and DALY rates also showed a downward trend (EAPC in age-standardized mortality rate: -1.83, 95% CI = -1.92 to -1.74; EAPC in age-standardized DALY rate = -1.59, 95% CI = -1.68 to -1.50). The burden of ischemic stroke was inversely correlated with gross domestic product. Regionally, from 2014 to 2021, the Caribbean experienced the fastest increase in ASIR (annual percent change = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.18). Among 204 countries, North Macedonia had the highest incidence, mortality, and DALY rates. In addition to metabolic risks, particulate matter pollution and low temperatures were significant environmental and occupational risk factors for ischemic stroke. Smoking and a diet high in sodium were identified as key behavioral risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Ischemic stroke remains a serious global health challenge, and our results from this cross-sectional study suggest that the burden of disease remains high in Eastern Europe, East Asia, Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Temporal trends in cross-country inequalities of stroke and subtypes burden from 1990 to 2021: a secondary analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.

Background: Stroke remains a significant global health challenge, with persistent disparities in burden across different countries and regions. This study aimed to assess the temporal trends in cross-country inequalities of stroke and its subtypes burden from 1990 to 2021. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. The age-standardised disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) was used to assess the burden of stroke and its subtypes (ischemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage) across 21 GBD regions and 204 countries. The slope index of inequality (SII) and the concentration index were calculated to quantify the absolute and relative cross-country inequalities in the burden of stroke and its subtypes, with negative values indicating a higher burden in lower socio-demographic index (SDI) countries, and positive values indicating a higher burden in higher SDI countries. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to illustrate temporal trends at global and regional levels from 1990 to 2021. The inequality changing patterns from 1990 to 2021 were classified as worsening, improving, and shifting to higher burdens among higher or lower SDI countries. Findings: From 1990 to 2021, the ASDR of total stroke decreased from 3078.95 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 2893.58, 3237.34) to 1886.20 (95% UI: 1738.99, 2017.90) per 100,000 population globally. While both absolute and relative inequalities increased, with a disproportionately higher burden shouldered by countries with lower SDI. The SII of total stroke exhibited a worsening inequality among lower SDI countries, increasing by 286.97 units from -2329.47 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -2857.50, -1801.43) in 1990 to -2616.44 (95% CI: -2987.33, -2245.56) in 2021. Similarly, the concentration index of total stroke increased by 0.03 from -0.0819 (95% CI: -0.1143, -0.0495) in 1990 to -0.1119 (95% CI: -0.1478, -0.0759) in 2021. The changing patterns from 1990 to 2021 were diverse across regions, yet most regions exhibited a worsening inequality among lower SDI countries in both SII and concentration index. Southern Sub-Saharan Africa showed the largest worsening inequality in SII (EAPC: -2.15, 95% CI: -2.71, -1.57) while Central Europe showed the largest worsening inequality in concentration index (EAPC: -0.51, 95% CI: -0.58, -0.44). In 2021, the highest negative SII was observed in Oceania and the highest negative concentration index was in the Caribbean. In terms of subtypes, ischemic stroke reported a worsening inequality among lower SDI countries in SII (EAPC: -2.13, 95% CI: -2.20, -2.05) while intracerebral haemorrhage showed an improving inequality in SII (EAPC: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.40, 0.47). SII in subarachnoid haemorrhage (EAPC: -0.18, 95% CI: -0.19, -0.17) and concentration index in ischemic stroke (EAPC: -0.25, 95% CI: -0.27, -0.23) presented a shift to higher burden among lower SDI countries from 1990 to 2021. Interpretation: Although the burden of stroke and its subtypes decreased from 1990 to 2021, inequalities have persisted and even widened in some regions. Timely and effective prevention and management strategies for stroke and its subtypes are needed in specific areas to reduce the stroke burden and achieve equity in health outcomes. Funding: None.

Spatiotemporal trends in the burden of colorectal cancer incidence and risk factors at country level from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Worldwide, the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) continues to rise and remains a major public health concern. This study aimed to analyze the temporal and spatial trends in CRC incidence and related risk factors at the country level. METHODS: Data on CRC and related risk factors were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 study. Temporal trends were evaluated using estimated annual percentage change while spatial trends were analyzed using spatial autocorrelation and autoregression. Additionally, linear mixed-effects models were employed to identify risk factors linked to CRC incidence. RESULTS: Globally, from 1990 to 2019, the incidence cases of CRC increased by 157.23%. At the national level, the incidence of CRC increased in most countries, with the highest increases of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in Equatorial Guinea, Vietnam, and China. In both 1990 and 2019, global spatial clustering of CRC ASIR highlighted hotspots in Europe, characterized by elevated CRC ASIR levels. A comparative analysis of risk factors between hotspot countries and others indicated that gender and alcohol use exerted greater influence in hotspots than elsewhere. CONCLUSION: Although from 1990 to 2019, the highest growth in ASIR of CRC has been observed in African, Asian, and Latin American countries, the hotspots are still concentrated in Europe. In the identified hotspots, gender and alcohol use exert a more significant impact on CRC incidence compared with other countries. Thus, we should pay attention to countries where the CRC incidence is increasing and these risk factors.

Global Burden of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Among Children and Adolescents: A Comprehensive Analysis (1990-2019).

Objective: We summarize the global, regional, and national burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, the data of IBD in children and adolescents were analyzed by sex, age, year, and location. Joinpoint analysis was applied to assess the temporal trend of the disease burden. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of IBD in children and adolescents increased by 22.8%, from 20,897.42 to 25,658.55 cases, especially in high SDI region. During the same period, the DALY numbers decreased by 53.5%, from 243,081.06 to 113,119.86, with all SDI regions experiencing a clear drop in DALYs except high SDI regions. In 2019, early-onset IBD incidence and DALY numbers were reported at 2,053.52 (95% UI: 1,575.62 to 2,677.49) and 73,797.46 (95% UI: 43,655.86 to 105,998.63), respectively. Conclusion: Early-onset IBD in children and adolescents remains a significant global health concern. The disease burden has not improved in developed countries over the past 30 years, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.

Global, regional, and national burden of intracerebral hemorrhage and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2021: results from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) results from the rupture of blood vessels causing bleeding within the brain and is one of the major causes of death and long-term disability globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Despite having a lower incidence than ischemic stroke, ICH imposes a greater social and economic burden. To our knowledge, since the release of the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) report, there has been no comprehensive update on the epidemiology and trends of ICH. This study aims to analyze the impact of gender, age, and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) on the burden of ICH at global, regional, and national levels. METHODS: Data on the incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ICH and its related risk factors from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021 project, encompassing 203 countries and regions. Furthermore, temporal trends of the global intracerebral hemorrhage burden were assessed through Joinpoint analysis. RESULTS: In 2021, there were 3.444 million new cases of ICH worldwide, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 40.8 per 100,000 people, representing a 31.4% decrease compared to 1990. In 2021, ICH caused 3.308 million deaths, with an age-standardized mortality rate of 39.1 per 100,000 people, a reduction of 36.6% since 1990. Globally, ICH accounted for 79.457 million DALYs, with an age-standardized DALY rate of 92.4 per 100,000 people, representing a 39.1% decrease since 1990. Regionally, Central Asia, Oceania, and Southeast Asia had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates of ICH, whereas Australasia, high-income North America, and Western Europe had the lowest rates. Nationally, the Solomon Islands, Mongolia, and Kiribati had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates, whereas Switzerland, New Zealand, and Australia had the lowest. Hypertension, smoking, and environmental pollution were identified as the primary risk factors for ICH. This study also validated the significant association between SDI and the burden of ICH, with the age-standardized DALY rate of ICH decreasing significantly as SDI increased. CONCLUSION: Despite the decreasing burden of intracerebral hemorrhage, it remains a significant public health issue in countries with a lower SDI. Prevention strategies should prioritize hypertension management, air quality improvement, and smoking control to further mitigate the impact of intracerebral hemorrhage.

A lifetime economic model of mortality and secondary care use for patients discharged from hospital following acute stroke.

BACKGROUND: The long-term health-economic consequences of acute stroke are typically extrapolated from short-term outcomes observed in different studies, using models based on assumptions about longer-term morbidity and mortality. Inconsistency in these assumptions and the methods of extrapolation can create difficulties when comparing estimates of life-time cost-effectiveness of stroke care interventions. AIMS: To develop a long-term model consisting of a set of equations to estimate the life-time effects of stroke care interventions to promote consistency in extrapolation of short-term outcomes. METHODS: Data about further admissions and mortality was provided for acute stroke patients discharged between 2013 and 2014 from a large English service. This was combined with data from UK life tables to create a set of parametric equations in a model that use age, sex, and modified Rankin Scores to predict the life-time risk of mortality and secondary care resource utilisation including ED attendances, non-elective admissions, and elective admissions. A cohort of 1,509 (male 51%; mean age 74) stroke patients had median follow-up of seven years and represented 7,111 post-discharge patient years. A logistic model estimated mortality within twelve months of discharge and a Gompertz model was used over the remainder of the lifetime. Hospital attendances were modelled using a Weibull distribution. Non-elective and elective bed days were both modelled using a log-logistic distribution. RESULTS: Mortality risk increased with age, dependency, and male sex. Although the overall pattern was similar for resource utilisation, there were different variations according to dependency and gender for ED attendances and non-elective/elective admissions. For example, 65-year-old women with a discharge mRS of 1 would gain an extra 6.75 life years compared to 65-year-old women with a discharge mRS of 3. Over their lifetime, 65-year-old women with a discharge mRS of 1 would experience 0.09 less ED attendances, 2.12 less non-elective bed days and 1.28 additional elective bed days than 65-year-old women with a discharge mRS of 3. CONCLUSIONS: Using long-term follow-up publicly available data from a large clinical cohort, this new model promotes standardised extrapolation of key outcomes over the life course, and potentially can improve the real-world accuracy and comparison of long-term cost-effectiveness estimates for stroke care interventions. DATA ASSESS STATEMENT: Data is available upon reasonable request from third parties.

Burden of disease in Germany attributed to ambient particulate matter pollution : Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Ambient fine particulate matter pollution with a diameter less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) is a significant risk factor for chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), leading to a substantial disease burden, decreased quality of life, and deaths globally. This study aimed to investigate the disease and mortality burdens attributed to PM2.5 in Germany in 2019. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 were used to investigate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and deaths attributed to ambient PM2.5 pollution in Germany. RESULTS: In 2019, ambient PM2.5 pollution in Germany was associated with significant health impacts, contributing to 27,040 deaths (2.82% of total deaths), 568,784 DALYs (2.09% of total DALYs), 135,725 YLDs (1.09% of total YLDs), and 433,058 YLLs (2.92% of total YLLs). The analysis further revealed that cardiometabolic and respiratory conditions, such as ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and diabetes mellitus, were the leading causes of mortality and disease burden associated with ambient PM2.5 pollution in Germany from 1990-2019. Comparative assessments between 1990 and 2019 underscored ambient PM2.5 as a consistent prominent risk factor, ranking closely with traditional factors like smoking, arterial hypertension, and alcohol use contributing to deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs. CONCLUSION: Ambient PM2.5 pollution is one of the major health risk factors contributing significantly to the burden of disease and mortality in Germany, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted interventions to address its substantial contribution to chronic NCDs.

Trends in adverse effects of medical treatment in Paediatric populations in the United States: A global burden of disease study, 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: Adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) pose significant risks to paediatric patients. However, the mortality trends associated with AEMT in this population have been unclear. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to clarify the trends in the incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates of AEMT for children in the US from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: Data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. We estimated age-standardized incidence, DALYs and mortality rates of paediatric AEMT per 100,000 children in the US using a Bayesian meta-regression model. We also analysed incidence, DALYs and mortality in different age groups, and employed Joinpoint regression models to assess the age- and sex-specific trends. RESULTS: The number of deaths due to AEMT in children, the number of cases, and DALYs were 105.1, 551,076 and 145,555 in 2019, decreased by 37.5%, 6% and 28% from those in 2000, respectively. Age-standardized mortality rates decreased across all age groups, while the incidence increased across all age groups with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 2.2% in those children <1 year and 4.5% in 5-9 years of age. The increases in DALYs over time was higher in children aged 1-4 years (AAPC: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.62) and 5-9 years (AAPC: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.50), with the 1-4 year age group being the highest. CONCLUSION: The study reveals declining AEMT mortality but rising incidence and DALYs, emphasizing a disproportionate burden in <1, 1-4 and 5-9 years. To develop effective mitigation strategies, future research is warranted to identify the causes of increased AEMT in children, especially young males.

Burden of malignant mesothelioma in China during 1990-2019 and the projections through 2029.

Objective: To provide the most up-to-date data on the burden of malignant mesothelioma (MM) and the projections through 2029 in China. Methods: Data on patients diagnosed with MM from China during 1990-2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database, including annual cases and deaths data and age-standardized rates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with MM among different age groups. Temporal trends during 1990-2019 were analyzed by the Joinpoint regression models using 95% confidence interval (CI), while the projections through 2029 were calculated by the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Data on the production and consumption of asbestos in China were obtained from the United States Geological Survey on Mineral Commodity Summaries during 1996-2023. Results: We observed a significant elevation in incident new cases and deaths over the last 3 decades, increasing from 1193 in 1990 to 2815 in 2019 for incident cases and from 1134 in 1990 to 2773 in 2019 for death cases. We found a roughly 6% increase in the proportion of incident cases for those aged >70 years (30% in 2019 versus 24% in 1990), while for the proportion of deaths similar elevation for those aged >70 years was found. Additionally, men had significantly higher DALYs due to MM across age groups compared with women. Asbestos consumption in China dramatically dropped since 2012 and reached the bottom in 2017 with 230 kilotons. By 2029, the projected age-standardized rate for incidence and mortality is expected to reach 1.2 per million for both. Conclusion: We found, for the first time using GBD data on the Chinese population, that the burden of MM has been significantly increasing in China over the last three decades and will continue to increase in the upcoming decade, suggesting an urgent need for a complete ban on chrysotile asbestos in China.

An analysis of the burden of liver cirrhosis: Differences between the global, China, the United States and India.

BACKGROUND: Cirrhosis continues to be the most common cause of chronic liver disease-related deaths globally, which puts significant strain on global health. This report aims to investigate the patterns of cirrhosis in China, the United States, India and worldwide from 1990 to 2019 through an epidemiological analysis of the disease utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 database. METHODS: Download the GBD database's statistics on liver cirrhosis deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for the years 1990-2019 worldwide as well as for China, the United States and India. Utilize techniques like age-period-cohort interaction, decomposition analysis, study of health inequities, Joinpoint model and Bayesian Average Annual Percentage Change model to process the data. RESULTS: The main age group affected by cirrhosis disease, according to the results, is 50-69 years old. According to the Joinpoint model, there has been a negative worldwide Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) in the burden of cirrhosis between 1990 and 2019. Only the USA's AAPC is positive out of the three nations that were evaluated (albeit its 95% confidence interval spans 0). These are China, India and the United States. Forecasting models indicate that the prevalence of cirrhosis will keep rising in the absence of government action. According to decomposition analysis, the main factors contributing to the rising burden of cirrhosis are population ageing and size, whereas changes in the disease's epidemiology slow the disease's growth. Research on health disparities indicates that, between 1990 and 2019, there was a downward trend in health disparities between various locations. CONCLUSION: Health organizations across different areas should take aggressive measures to address the worrisome prevalence of cirrhosis.

Leprosy in Brazil: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease estimates between 1990 and 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the occurrence of leprosy in Brazil and its states between 1990 and 2019, according to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates, and its correlation with development status. STUDY DESIGN: A descriptive and analytical ecological epidemiological study. METHODS: Rates of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLD) due to leprosy, standardized by age, per 100,000 inhabitants, were analyzed. The trend analysis consisted of the joinpoint regression model and the average annual percentage change. The correlation between the incidence rate and the sociodemographic index (SDI) was investigated (Spearman test) at a 5% significance level. Incidence, prevalence and YLD rates were presented by country's states, sex, and age. RESULTS: There was an average percentage decrease of -1.1% per year (P < 0.001) in the incidence rate in the country and, between 1990 and 2019, a decline from 4.8 to 3.5 per 100,000 inhabitants; prevalence from 26.1 to 22.2, and YLD from 1.1 to 1.0. The incidence rate was higher among men and the elderly. Maranhão (7.0 in 1990; 4.2 in 2019), Alagoas (6.6 in 1990; 4.1 in 2019), Acre (6.1 in 1990; 4.0 in 2019), Mato Grosso (5.2 in 1990 and 3.7 in 2019), and Mato Grosso do Sul (4.8 in 1990 and 3.7 in 2019) presented the highest incidence rates. A negative correlation was observed between SDI levels and leprosy incidence rates in 1990 (R = -0.71; P < 0.0001) and 2019 (R = -0.81; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the decrease in the rates of leprosy incidence, prevalence, and YLDs over the analyzed period, Brazil has a long way towards achieving its eradication. The greater burden of the disease in males stands out. The estimated risk of the disease was higher in the states with the lowest SDI levels. Therefore, interventions must consider the heterogeneity of the disease burden geographically and between sociodemographic groups.

Mortality attributable to diabetes in Cuba: Estimates for 2019.

Objective: To estimate the national and provincial number of excess deaths due to diabetes across Cuba in 2019. Study design: Cross-sectional design with secondary data. Methods: We used DISMODII, a computerized generic disease model, to assess disease burden by modelling the relationships between incidence, prevalence, and disease-specific mortality. Baseline input data included population structure, total mortality, and age- and sex-specific estimates for diabetes prevalence from the Cuban National Health Survey 2019, and available published estimates of the relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared to people without diabetes. The results were internally validated with DISMODII output for duration of diabetes (years). Results: In 2019, we estimated an excess of mortality attributable to diabetes of 7.5 times the diabetes mortality reported by the National Death Registry, which is equivalent to 16.4 % of all deaths in Cuba. The percentages of all-cause mortality among provinces varied between 10.7 % in Villa Clara and 24.5 % in Ciego de Avila. Conclusions: These are the first estimates of mortality attributable to diabetes in Cuba and its provinces. Diabetes is likely to be a much more prominent leading cause of death than the 9th ranking reported by the Cuban National Death Registry 2019. Disease models similar to DISMODII are important tools to validate the epidemiologic indicators used in the burden of disease calculations.

Worldwide burden of liver cancer due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis from 1990 to 2019: insights from the Global Burden of Disease study.

Introduction: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is increasingly becoming a prevalent cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our study examines the burden of MASH-related HCC globally, regionally, and nationally, along with associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019, considering variables such as age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Objective: We aimed to report the global, regional, and national burden of liver cancer due to MASH and its attributable risk factors between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Methods: Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease 2019 project, we analyzed data on prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for liver cancer attributable to MASH across 204 countries. We provided counts and rates per 100,000 population, including 95% uncertainty intervals. Results: In 2019, there were 46.8 thousand cases of MASH-related HCC, leading to 34.7 thousand deaths, and 795.8 thousand DALYs globally. While the prevalence increased by 19.8% since 1990, the death and DALY rates decreased by 5.3% and 15.1%, respectively. The highest prevalence was in High-income Asia Pacific, with the greatest increases observed in Australasia, Central Asia, and High-income North America. Southern Sub-Saharan Africa reported the highest death rate, while the lowest rates were in parts of Latin America, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eastern Europe. DALY rates were the highest in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and the lowest in Tropical Latin America. Discussion: The burden of MASH-related HCC is expected to rise slightly over the next decade. This disease, which is not associated with the SDI, remains a major public health problem. In addition, the escalating rates of obesity, demographic shifts, and an aging population could position MASH as a leading factor in liver cancer cases, surpassing viral hepatitis. It is imperative, therefore, that the forthcoming years see the implementation of strategic interventions aimed at the early detection and prevention of liver cancer associated with MASH.

Global, regional, and national burdens of leukemia from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease in 2019 based on the APC model.

BACKGROUND: Leukemia is the tenth most common cause of cancer death worldwide and one of the most important causes of disability. To understand the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of leukemia at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of leukemia prevention and treatment strategies. METHODS: Based on open data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), R software was used to calculate estimated annual percentage changes to estimate trends in the age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate due to leukemia and its major subtypes from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, globally, the number of incidences and DALYs of leukemia were 643.6 × 103 (587.0 × 103, 699.7 × 103) and 11,657.5 × 103 (10529.1 × 103, 12700.7 × 103), respectively. The ASIR (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -0.37, 95%UI -0.46 to -0.28) and the age-standardized DALY rate (EAPC = -1.72, 95%UI -1.80 to -1.65) of leukemia showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019. The APC model analysis showed that the age effect of leukemia risk was a "U"-shaped distribution of relative risk (RR) with increasing age from 1990 to 2019, globally. The time effect was an increase in incidence rate with increasing years but a decrease in DALY rate with increasing years. The cohort effects of both incidence and DALY rates tended to increase and then decrease with the development of the birth cohort. In 1990 and 2019, smoking, high body-mass index, occupational exposure to benzene, and occupational exposure to formaldehyde were risk factors for DALY in leukemia, especially in areas with high SDI. CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of leukemia showed a decreasing trend, but it is worth noting that its overall severity is still very high. The disease burden of leukemia varies greatly from region to region, and exclusive strategies for the prevention and treatment of leukemia should be developed according to the economic and cultural development of each region.

Convergences and Divergences in the Burden of Disease in Older People Across The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Countries.

BACKGROUND: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member states are heterogeneous in their social, economic, and health conditions. AIMS: a) to analyze age-specific mortality rate (ASMR) and age-specific disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate among older people in countries by age groups (65-74 years and 75+ years) and sex, and b) to estimate the association between age-specific DALY rate with Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and with Healthcare Access and Quality Index (HAQI). METHODS: Secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. The ASMR and the age-specific DALY rate were reported for the years 1990, 2005, and 2019. Correlation between age-specific DALY rate with SDI and HAQI was estimated. RESULTS: There were differences in the level and change in ASMR and the age-specific DALY rates among OECD countries. Overall, men had a higher rate for both age groups in both indicators. Although the rates have been reduced between 1990 and 2019, some countries stand out for continuing to have higher rates than countries with better socioeconomic levels. The disease burden profile also differed between adults aged 65-74 years and those aged 75+ years. In almost all cases, there was a negative and statistically significant correlation between the age-specific DALY rate with SDI and HAQI. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of mortality and DALY in OECD countries is convergent because they have decreased over time in all countries but diverge in the magnitude and speed of change.

Global, regional and national trends in the burden of low bone mineral density from 1990 to 2030: A Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study.

Low bone mineral density (LBMD) remains a global public health concern. To provide deeper insights, we retrieved and calibrated LBMD death and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) database. We calculated the age-standardized rate (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to delineate LBMD trends across sexes, age groups, Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions, and countries. Spearman rank order correlation analysis was used to explore the relationship between SDI and ASR. Additionally, we constructed Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models to predict future trends in LBMD up to 2030, with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) used to evaluate prediction accuracy. Our analyses revealed that global deaths related to LBMD nearly doubled, from 250,930 in 1990 to 463,010 in 2021, and are projected to rise to 473,690 by 2030. However, the ASR exhibited an opposite trend, decreasing from 17.91 per 100,000 in 1990 to 15.77 per 100,000 in 2021, and is expected to further decline to 13.64 per 100,000 by 2030. The EAPC indicated descending trends in 1990-2021 and 2022-2030. Trends in LBMD varied across different subgroups by sex, age, and location. Males are projected to continue experiencing higher death numbers than females, though the gap is narrowing. The 90 to 94 age group consistently had the highest ASR from 1990 to 2030. Lower SDI remains a critical factor contributing to the higher burden of LBMD. Spearman rank order correlation analysis showed a negative correlation between SDI and ASR. We categorized 6 distinct trends in ASR across different countries, with most expected to experience a decline by 2030. The MAPE value (0.038 < 0.1) indicated that the BAPC model produced reliable predictions even under the COVID-19 pandemic.