The impact of earthquake risk on banks' lending behavior: evidence from local Chinese banks.

This paper examines the impact of earthquake risk on the lending behavior of local Chinese banks. The results show that when facing earthquake risk, banks will adjust their lending behavior, including decreasing the amount of loans and mortgage loans and increasing credit loans and loan loss provision, but the effect only exists for banks without inter-provincial branches or that are located in cities with a higher population density. In general, earthquake risk cannot significantly affect the performance of banks, but it can deteriorate the performance of banks that have not adjusted their lending behavior.

The Total Costs of Seismic Retrofits: State of the Art.

This article presents the current state-of-practice with respect to quantifying the total cost to retrofit an existing building. In particular, we combine quantitative, qualitative, and heuristic data to provide a taxonomy for understanding the direct and indirect costs associated with seismic risk mitigation. Much of the literature to date has focused on estimating structural retrofit costs, the costs of retrofitting the structural elements of a building. In contrast, there is very little research or data on the remaining cost components of the total cost. We propose using structural cost as the foundation for approximating the remaining cost components and the total cost itself. To validate our findings, we compare the proposed approximations with actual cost estimates developed by engineering professionals.

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment using machine learning approaches at Palu, Indonesia.

On 28th September 2018, a very high magnitude of earthquake Mw 7.5 struck the Palu city in the Island of Sulawesi, Indonesia. The main objective of this research is to estimate the earthquake risk based on probability and hazard in Palu region using cross-correlation among the derived parameters, Silhouette clustering (SC), pure locational clustering (PLC) based on hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA), convolutional neural network (CNN) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) techniques. There is no specific or simple way of identifying risks as the definition of risk varies with time and space. The main aim of this study is: i) to conduct the clustering analysis to identify the earthquake-prone areas, ii) to develop a CNN model for probability estimation, and iii) to estimate and compare the risk using two calculation equations (Risk A and B). Owing to its high prediction ability, the CNN model assessed the probability while SC and PLC were implemented to understand the spatial clustering, Euclidean distance among clusters, spatial relationship and cross-correlation among the estimated Mw, PGA and intensity including events depth. Finally, AHP was implemented for the vulnerability assessment. To this end, earthquake probability assessment (EPA), susceptibility to seismic amplification (SSA) and earthquake vulnerability assessment (EVA) results were employed to generate risk A, while earthquake hazard assessment (EHA), SSA and EVA were used to generate risk B. The risk maps were compared and the differences in results were obtained. This research concludes that in the case of earthquake risk assessment (ERA), results obtained in Risk B are better than the risk A. This study achieved 89.47% accuracy for EPA while for EVA a consistency ratio of 0.07. These results have important implications for future large-scale risk assessment, land use planning and hazard mitigation.

How to improve public participation in disaster risk management: A case study of Buein Zahra, a small city in Iran.

Identifying and providing basic solutions using a collaborative approach in earthquake-stricken cities of Iran has not yet been addressed. This article focuses on an area of practice and views disaster risk management from the point of view of volunteer groups to illustrate how the main components of disaster risk management affect the strengthening of public participation. In this article, Buein Zahra, a small city in Iran, is considered as a high-risk earthquake zone. The basic components of risk management are identified, namely public awareness, knowledge, skills, enabling environment, organisational development and social participation. An assessment of these indicators was done, and multidimensional relationships were established between them to enable an increase in the capacity for public participation. Accordingly, the results indicate that a mere increase in public awareness and knowledge, as seen today, and an improvement in enabling environment, although affecting disaster risk reduction, cannot by themselves lead to real public participation. Organisational development and strengthening of crisis coping skills are two key components to improving participation during crises in the small cities of Iran. According to the results of this study, institutional capacity and unreal political commitment have caused inefficiency of public participation in earthquake preparedness.

Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China.

Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual's earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded.

GFZ wireless seismic array (GFZ-WISE), a wireless mesh network of seismic sensors: new perspectives for seismic noise array investigations and site monitoring.

Over the last few years, the analysis of seismic noise recorded by two dimensional arrays has been confirmed to be capable of deriving the subsoil shear-wave velocity structure down to several hundred meters depth. In fact, using just a few minutes of seismic noise recordings and combining this with the well known horizontal-to-vertical method, it has also been shown that it is possible to investigate the average one dimensional velocity structure below an array of stations in urban areas with a sufficient resolution to depths that would be prohibitive with active source array surveys, while in addition reducing the number of boreholes required to be drilled for site-effect analysis. However, the high cost of standard seismological instrumentation limits the number of sensors generally available for two-dimensional array measurements (i.e., of the order of 10), limiting the resolution in the estimated shear-wave velocity profiles. Therefore, new themes in site-effect estimation research by two-dimensional arrays involve the development and application of low-cost instrumentation, which potentially allows the performance of dense-array measurements, and the development of dedicated signal-analysis procedures for rapid and robust estimation of shear-wave velocity profiles. In this work, we present novel low-cost wireless instrumentation for dense two-dimensional ambient seismic noise array measurements that allows the real-time analysis of the surface-wavefield and the rapid estimation of the local shear-wave velocity structure for site response studies. We first introduce the general philosophy of the new system, as well as the hardware and software that forms the novel instrument, which we have tested in laboratory and field studies.