Identifying factors related to mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients using machine learning methods.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact globally, presenting significant social and economic challenges. This study aims to explore the factors affecting mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients and construct a machine learning-based model to predict the risk of mortality. Methods: The study examined COVID-19 patients admitted to Imam Reza Hospital in Tabriz, Iran, between March 2020 and November 2021. The Elastic Net method was employed to identify and rank features associated with mortality risk. Subsequently, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed based on these features to predict mortality risk. The performance of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: The study included 706 patients with 96 features, out of them 26 features were identified as crucial predictors of mortality. The ANN model, utilizing 20 of these features, achieved an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 98.8 %, effectively stratifying patients by mortality risk. Conclusion: The developed model offers accurate and precipitous mortality risk predictions for COVID-19 patients, enhancing the responsiveness of healthcare systems to high-risk individuals.

The spike-and-slab lasso and scalable algorithm to accommodate multinomial outcomes in variable selection problems.

Spike-and-slab prior distributions are used to impose variable selection in Bayesian regression-style problems with many possible predictors. These priors are a mixture of two zero-centered distributions with differing variances, resulting in different shrinkage levels on parameter estimates based on whether they are relevant to the outcome. The spike-and-slab lasso assigns mixtures of double exponential distributions as priors for the parameters. This framework was initially developed for linear models, later developed for generalized linear models, and shown to perform well in scenarios requiring sparse solutions. Standard formulations of generalized linear models cannot immediately accommodate categorical outcomes with > 2 categories, i.e. multinomial outcomes, and require modifications to model specification and parameter estimation. Such modifications are relatively straightforward in a Classical setting but require additional theoretical and computational considerations in Bayesian settings, which can depend on the choice of prior distributions for the parameters of interest. While previous developments of the spike-and-slab lasso focused on continuous, count, and/or binary outcomes, we generalize the spike-and-slab lasso to accommodate multinomial outcomes, developing both the theoretical basis for the model and an expectation-maximization algorithm to fit the model. To our knowledge, this is the first generalization of the spike-and-slab lasso to allow for multinomial outcomes.

Gestational exposure to organochlorine compounds and metals and infant birth weight: effect modification by maternal hardships.

BACKGROUND: Gestational exposure to toxic environmental chemicals and maternal social hardships are individually associated with impaired fetal growth, but it is unclear whether the effects of environmental chemical exposure on infant birth weight are modified by maternal hardships. METHODS: We used data from the Maternal-Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals (MIREC) Study, a pan-Canadian cohort of 1982 pregnant females enrolled between 2008 and 2011. We quantified eleven environmental chemical concentrations from two chemical classes - six organochlorine compounds (OCs) and five metals - that were detected in ≥ 70% of blood samples collected during the first trimester. We examined fetal growth using birth weight adjusted for gestational age and assessed nine maternal hardships by questionnaire. Each maternal hardship variable was dichotomized to indicate whether the females experienced the hardship. In our analysis, we used elastic net to select the environmental chemicals, maternal hardships, and 2-way interactions between maternal hardships and environmental chemicals that were most predictive of birth weight. Next, we obtained effect estimates using multiple linear regression, and plotted the relationships by hardship status for visual interpretation. RESULTS: Elastic net selected trans-nonachlor, lead, low educational status, racially minoritized background, and low supplemental folic acid intake. All were inversely associated with birth weight. Elastic net also selected interaction terms. Among those with increasing environmental chemical exposures and reported hardships, we observed stronger negative associations and a few positive associations. For example, every two-fold increase in lead concentrations was more strongly associated with reduced infant birth weight among participants with low educational status (ß = -100 g (g); 95% confidence interval (CI): -215, 16), than those with higher educational status (ß = -34 g; 95% CI: -63, -3). In contrast, every two-fold increase in mercury concentrations was associated with slightly higher birth weight among participants with low educational status (ß = 23 g; 95% CI: -25, 71) compared to those with higher educational status (ß = -9 g; 95% CI: -24, 6). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that maternal hardships can modify the associations of gestational exposure to some OCs and metals with infant birth weight.

expHRD: an individualized, transcriptome-based prediction model for homologous recombination deficiency assessment in cancer.

BACKGROUND: Homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) stands as a clinical indicator for discerning responsive outcomes to platinum-based chemotherapy and poly ADP-ribose polymerase (PARP) inhibitors. One of the conventional approaches to HRD prognostication has generally centered on identifying deleterious mutations within the BRCA1/2 genes, along with quantifying the genomic scars, such as Genomic Instability Score (GIS) estimation with scarHRD. However, the scarHRD method has limitations in scenarios involving tumors bereft of corresponding germline data. Although several RNA-seq-based HRD prediction algorithms have been developed, they mainly support cohort-wise classification, thereby yielding HRD status without furnishing an analogous quantitative metric akin to scarHRD. This study introduces the expHRD method, which operates as a novel transcriptome-based framework tailored to n-of-1-style HRD scoring. RESULTS: The prediction model has been established using the elastic net regression method in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) pan-cancer training set. The bootstrap technique derived the HRD geneset for applying the expHRD calculation. The expHRD demonstrated a notable correlation with scarHRD and superior performance in predicting HRD-high samples. We also performed intra- and extra-cohort evaluations for clinical feasibility in the TCGA-OV and the Genomic Data Commons (GDC) ovarian cancer cohort, respectively. The innovative web service designed for ease of use is poised to extend the realms of HRD prediction across diverse malignancies, with ovarian cancer standing as an emblematic example. CONCLUSIONS: Our novel approach leverages the transcriptome data, enabling the prediction of HRD status with remarkable precision. This innovative method addresses the challenges associated with limited available data, opening new avenues for utilizing transcriptomics to inform clinical decisions.

An elastic net regression model for predicting the risk of ICU admission and death for hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

This study aimed to develop and validate prediction models to estimate the risk of death and intensive care unit admission in COVID-19 inpatients. All RT-PCR-confirmed adult COVID-19 inpatients admitted to Fujian Provincial Hospital from October 2022 to April 2023 were considered. Elastic Net Regression was used to derive the risk prediction models. Potential risk factors were considered, which included demographic characteristics, clinical symptoms, comorbidities, laboratory results, treatment process, prognosis. A total of 1906 inpatients were included finally by inclusion/exclusion criteria and were divided into derivation and test cohorts in a ratio of 8:2, where 1526 (80%) samples were used to develop prediction models under a repeated cross-validation framework and the remaining 380 (20%) samples were used for performance evaluation. Overall performance, discrimination and calibration were evaluated in the validation set and test cohort and quantified by accuracy, scaled Brier score (SbrS), the area under the ROC curve (AUROC), and Spiegelhalter-Z statistics. The models performed well, with high levels of discrimination (AUROCICU [95%CI]: 0.858 [0.803,0.899]; AUROCdeath [95%CI]: 0.906 [0.850,0.948]); and good calibrations (Spiegelhalter-ZICU: - 0.821 (p-value: 0.412); Spiegelhalter-Zdeath: 0.173) in the test set. We developed and validated prediction models to help clinicians identify high risk patients for death and ICU admission after COVID-19 infection.

The interaction effect of metals exposure and dietary habit on cognitive function in Chinese older adult cohort.

BACKGROUND: As the important factors in cognitive function, dietary habits and metal exposures are interactive with each other. However, fewer studies have investigated the interaction effect of them on cognitive dysfunction in older adults. METHODS: 2,445 registered citizens aged 60-85 years from 51 community health centers in Luohu District, Shenzhen, were recruited in this study based on the Chinese older adult cohort. All subjects underwent physical examination and Mini-cognitive assessment scale. A semi quantitative food frequency questionnaire was used to obtain their food intake frequency, and 21 metal concentrations in their urine were measured. RESULTS: Elastic-net regression model, a machine learning technique, identified six variables that were significantly associated with cognitive dysfunction in older adults. These variables included education level, gender, urinary concentration of arsenic (As) and cadmium (Cd), and the frequency of monthly intake of egg and bean products. After adjusting for multiple factors, As and Cd concentrations were positively associated with increased risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in the older people, with OR values of 1.19 (95% CI: 1.05-1.42) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.01-1.74), respectively. In addition, older adults with high frequency of egg intake (≥30 times/month) and bean products intake (≥8 times/month) had a reduced risk of MCI than those with low protein egg intake (<30 times/month) and low bean products intake (<8 times/month), respectively. Furthermore, additive interaction were observed between the As exposure and egg products intake, as well as bean products. Cd exposure also showed additive interactions with egg and bean products intake. CONCLUSIONS: The consumption of eggs and bean products, as well as the levels of exposure to the heavy metals Cd and As, have been shown to have a substantial influence on cognitive impairment in the elderly population.

Associations between exposure to pesticides mixture and semen quality among the non-occupationally exposed males: Four statistical models.

Most epidemiological studies on the associations between pesticides exposure and semen quality have been based on a single pesticide, with inconsistent major results. In contrast, there was limited human evidence on the potential effect of pesticides mixture on semen quality. Our study aimed to investigate the relationship of pesticide profiles with semen quality parameters among 299 non-occupationally exposed males aged 25-50 without any clinical abnormalities. Serum concentrations of 21 pesticides were quantified by gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). Semen quality parameters were abstracted from medical records. Generalized linear regression models (GLMs) and three mixture approaches, including weighted quantile sum regression (WQS), elastic net regression (ENR) and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR), were applied to explore the single and mixed effects of pesticide exposure on semen quality. In GLMs, as the serum levels of Bendiocarb, ß-BHC, Clomazone, Dicrotophos, Dimethenamid, Paclobutrazole, Pentachloroaniline and Pyrimethanil increased, the straight-line velocity (VSL), linearity (LIN) and straightness (STR) decreased. This negative association also occurred between the concentration of ß-BHC, Pentachloroaniline, Pyrimethanil and progressive motility, total motility. In the WQS models, pesticides mixture was negatively associated with total motility and several sperm motility parameters (ß: -3.07∼-1.02 per decile, FDR-P<0.05). After screening the important pesticides derived from the mixture by ENR model, the BKMR models showed that the decreased qualities for VSL, LIN, and STR were also observed when pesticide mixtures were at ≥ 70th percentiles. Clomazone, Dimethenamid, and Pyrimethanil (Posterior inclusion probability, PIP: 0.2850-0.8900) were identified as relatively important contributors. The study provides evidence that exposure to single or mixed pesticide was associated with impaired semen quality.

Prognostication of colorectal cancer liver metastasis by CE-based radiomics and machine learning.

The liver is the most common organ for the formation of colorectal cancer metastasis. Non-invasive prognostication of colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) may better inform clinicians for decision-making. Contrast-enhanced computed tomography images of 180 CRLM cases were included in the final analyses. Radiomics features, including shape, first-order, wavelet, and texture, were extracted with Pyradiomics, followed by feature engineering by penalized Cox regression. Radiomics signatures were constructed for disease-free survival (DFS) by both elastic net (EN) and random survival forest (RSF) algorithms. The prognostic potential of the radiomics signatures was demonstrated by Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression. 11 radiomics features were selected for prognostic modelling for the EN algorithm, with 835 features for the RSF algorithm. Survival heatmap indicates a negative correlation between EN or RSF risk scores and DFS. Radiomics signature by EN algorithm successfully separates DFS of high-risk and low-risk cases in the training dataset (log-rank test: p < 0.01, hazard ratio: 1.45 (1.07-1.96), p < 0.01) and test dataset (hazard ratio: 1.89 (1.17-3.04), p < 0.05). RSF algorithm shows a better prognostic implication potential for DFS in the training dataset (log-rank test: p < 0.001, hazard ratio: 2.54 (1.80-3.61), p < 0.0001) and test dataset (log-rank test: p < 0.05, hazard ratio: 1.84 (1.15-2.96), p < 0.05). Radiomics features have the potential for the prediction of DFS in CRLM cases.

3D Galileo Reference Antenna Pattern for Space Service Volume Applications.

There is an increasing demand for navigation capability for space vehicles. The exploitation of the so-called Space Service Volume (SSV), and hence the extension of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) from terrestrial to space users, is currently considered a fundamental step. Knowledge of the constellation antenna pattern, including the side lobe signals, is the main input for assessing the expected GNSS signal availability and navigation performance, especially for high orbits. The best way to define and share this information with the final GNSS user is still an open question. This paper proposes a novel methodology for the definition of a high-fidelity and easy-to-use statistical model to represent GNSS constellation antenna patterns. The reconstruction procedure, based on antenna characterization techniques and statistical learning, is presented here through its successful implementation for the "Galileo Reference Antenna Pattern (GRAP)" model, which has been proposed as the reference model for the Galileo programme. The GRAP represents the expected Equivalent Isotropic Radiated Power (EIRP) variation for the Galileo FOC satellites, and it is obtained by processing the measurements retrieved during the characterization campaign performed on the Galileo FOC antennas. The mathematical background of the model is analyzed in depth in order to better assess the GRAP with respect to different objectives such as improved resolution, smoothness and proper representation of the antenna pattern statistical distribution. The analysis confirms the enhanced GRAP properties and envisages the possibility of extending the approach to other GNSSs. The discussion is complemented by a preliminary use case characterization of the Galileo performance in SSV. The accessibility, a novel indicator, is defined in order to represent in a quick and compact manner, the expected Galileo SSV quality for different altitudes and target mission requirements. The SSV characterization is performed to demonstrate how simply and effectively the GRAP model can be inserted into user analysis. The work creates the basis for an improved capability for assessing Galileo-based navigation in SSV according to the current knowledge of the antenna pattern.

m6Aexpress-enet: Predicting the regulatory expression m6A sites by an enet-regularization negative binomial regression model.

As the most abundant mRNA modification, m6A controls and influences many aspects of mRNA metabolism including the mRNA stability and degradation. However, the role of specific m6A sites in regulating gene expression still remains unclear. In additional, the multicollinearity problem caused by the correlation of methylation level of multiple m6A sites in each gene could influence the prediction performance. To address the above challenges, we propose an elastic-net regularized negative binomial regression model (called m6Aexpress-enet) to predict which m6A site could potentially regulate its gene expression. Comprehensive evaluations on simulated datasets demonstrate that m6Aexpress-enet could achieve the top prediction performance. Applying m6Aexpress-enet on real MeRIP-seq data from human lymphoblastoid cell lines, we have uncovered the complex regulatory pattern of predicted m6A sites and their unique enrichment pathway of the constructed co-methylation modules. m6Aexpress-enet proves itself as a powerful tool to enable biologists to discover the mechanism of m6A regulatory gene expression. Furthermore, the source code and the step-by-step implementation of m6Aexpress-enet is freely accessed at https://github.com/tengzhangs/m6Aexpress-enet.

Predicting depression risk in early adolescence via multimodal brain imaging.

Depression is an incapacitating psychiatric disorder with increased risk through adolescence. Among other factors, children with family history of depression have significantly higher risk of developing depression. Early identification of pre-adolescent children who are at risk of depression is crucial for early intervention and prevention. In this study, we used a large longitudinal sample from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study (2658 participants after imaging quality control, between 9-10 years at baseline), we applied advanced machine learning methods to predict depression risk at the two-year follow-up from the baseline assessment, using a set of comprehensive multimodal neuroimaging features derived from structural MRI, diffusion tensor imaging, and task and rest functional MRI. Prediction performance underwent a rigorous cross-validation method of leave-one-site-out. Our results demonstrate that all brain features had prediction scores significantly better than expected by chance, with brain features from rest-fMRI showing the best classification performance in the high-risk group of participants with parental history of depression (N = 625). Specifically, rest-fMRI features, which came from functional connectomes, showed significantly better classification performance than other brain features. This finding highlights the key role of the interacting elements of the connectome in capturing more individual variability in psychopathology compared to measures of single brain regions. Our study contributes to the effort of identifying biological risks of depression in early adolescence in population-based samples.

An X Chromosome Transcriptome Wide Association Study Implicates ARMCX6 in Alzheimer's Disease.

Background: The X chromosome is often omitted in disease association studies despite containing thousands of genes that may provide insight into well-known sex differences in the risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Objective: To model the expression of X chromosome genes and evaluate their impact on AD risk in a sex-stratified manner. Methods: Using elastic net, we evaluated multiple modeling strategies in a set of 175 whole blood samples and 126 brain cortex samples, with whole genome sequencing and RNA-seq data. SNPs (MAF > 0.05) within the cis-regulatory window were used to train tissue-specific models of each gene. We apply the best models in both tissues to sex-stratified summary statistics from a meta-analysis of Alzheimer's Disease Genetics Consortium (ADGC) studies to identify AD-related genes on the X chromosome. Results: Across different model parameters, sample sex, and tissue types, we modeled the expression of 217 genes (95 genes in blood and 135 genes in brain cortex). The average model R2 was 0.12 (range from 0.03 to 0.34). We also compared sex-stratified and sex-combined models on the X chromosome. We further investigated genes that escaped X chromosome inactivation (XCI) to determine if their genetic regulation patterns were distinct. We found ten genes associated with AD at p < 0.05, with only ARMCX6 in female brain cortex (p = 0.008) nearing the significance threshold after adjusting for multiple testing (α = 0.002). Conclusions: We optimized the expression prediction of X chromosome genes, applied these models to sex-stratified AD GWAS summary statistics, and identified one putative AD risk gene, ARMCX6.

Development of a processing factor prediction model for pesticides in processed tomato foods using elastic net regularization.

A novel regularized elastic net regression model was developed to predict processing factor (PF) for pesticide residues, which represents a change in the residue levels during food processing. The PF values for tomato juice, wet pomace and dry pomace in the evaluations and reports published by the Joint FAO/WHO Meeting on Pesticide Residues significantly correlated with the physicochemical properties of pesticides, and subsequently the correlation was observed in the present tomato processing study. The elastic net regression model predicted the PF values using the physicochemical properties as predictor variables for both training and test data within a 2-fold range for 80-100% of the pesticides tested in the tomato processing study while overcoming multicollinearity. These results suggest that the PF values are predictable at a certain degree of accuracy from the unique sets of physicochemical properties of pesticides using the developed model based on a processing study with representative pesticides.

Tissue of origin prediction for cancer of unknown primary using a targeted methylation sequencing panel.

RATIONALE: Cancer of unknown primary (CUP) is a group of rare malignancies with poor prognosis and unidentifiable tissue-of-origin. Distinct DNA methylation patterns in different tissues and cancer types enable the identification of the tissue of origin in CUP patients, which could help risk assessment and guide site-directed therapy. METHODS: Using genome-wide DNA methylation profile datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and machine learning methods, we developed a 200-CpG methylation feature classifier for CUP tissue of origin prediction (MFCUP). MFCUP was further validated with public-available methylation array data of 2977 specimens and targeted methylation sequencing of 78 Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples from a single center. RESULTS: MFCUP achieved an accuracy of 97.2% in a validation cohort (n = 5923) representing 25 cancer types. When applied to an Infinium 450 K array dataset (n = 1052) and an Infinium EPIC (850 K) array dataset (n = 1925), MFCUP achieved an overall accuracy of 93.4% and 84.8%, respectively. Based on MFCUP, we established a targeted bisulfite sequencing panel and validated it with FFPE sections from 78 patients of 20 cancer types. This methylation sequencing panel correctly identified tissue of origin in 88.5% (69/78) of samples. We also found that the methylation levels of specific CpGs can distinguish one cancer type from others, indicating their potential as biomarkers for cancer diagnosis and screening. CONCLUSION: Our methylation-based cancer classifier and targeted methylation sequencing panel can predict tissue of origin in diverse cancer types with high accuracy.

Depression and fatigue six months post-COVID-19 disease are associated with overlapping symptom constellations: A prospective, multi-center, population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Depression and fatigue are commonly observed sequelae following viral diseases such as COVID-19. Identifying symptom constellations that differentially classify post-COVID depression and fatigue may be helpful to individualize treatment strategies. Here, we investigated whether self-reported post-COVID depression and post-COVID fatigue are associated with the same or different symptom constellations. METHODS: To address this question, we used data from COVIDOM, a population-based cohort study conducted as part of the NAPKON-POP platform. Data were collected in three different German regions (Kiel, Berlin, Würzburg). We analyzed data from >2000 individuals at least six months past a PCR-confirmed COVID-19 disease, using elastic net regression and cluster analysis. The regression model was developed in the Kiel data set, and externally validated using data sets from Berlin and Würzburg. RESULTS: Our results revealed that post-COVID depression and fatigue are associated with overlapping symptom constellations consisting of difficulties with daily activities, perceived health-related quality of life, chronic exhaustion, unrestful sleep, and impaired concentration. Confirming the overlap in symptom constellations, a follow-up cluster analysis could categorize individuals as scoring high or low on depression and fatigue but could not differentiate between both dimensions. LIMITATIONS: The data presented are cross-sectional, consisting primarily of self-reported questionnaire or medical records rather than biometric data. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, our results suggest a strong link between post-COVID depression and fatigue, highlighting the need for integrative treatment approaches.

Integrating High-Resolution Mass Spectral Data, Bioassays and Computational Models to Annotate Bioactives in Botanical Extracts: Case Study Analysis of C. asiatica Extract Associates Dicaffeoylquinic Acids with Protection against Amyloid-ß Toxicity.

Rapid screening of botanical extracts for the discovery of bioactive natural products was performed using a fractionation approach in conjunction with flow-injection high-resolution mass spectrometry for obtaining chemical fingerprints of each fraction, enabling the correlation of the relative abundance of molecular features (representing individual phytochemicals) with the read-outs of bioassays. We applied this strategy for discovering and identifying constituents of Centella asiatica (C. asiatica) that protect against Aß cytotoxicity in vitro. C. asiatica has been associated with improving mental health and cognitive function, with potential use in Alzheimer's disease. Human neuroblastoma MC65 cells were exposed to subfractions of an aqueous extract of C. asiatica to evaluate the protective benefit derived from these subfractions against amyloid ß-cytotoxicity. The % viability score of the cells exposed to each subfraction was used in conjunction with the intensity of the molecular features in two computational models, namely Elastic Net and selectivity ratio, to determine the relationship of the peak intensity of molecular features with % viability. Finally, the correlation of mass spectral features with MC65 protection and their abundance in different sub-fractions were visualized using GNPS molecular networking. Both computational methods unequivocally identified dicaffeoylquinic acids as providing strong protection against Aß-toxicity in MC65 cells, in agreement with the protective effects observed for these compounds in previous preclinical model studies.

Intestinal metabolites predict treatment resistance of patients with depression and anxiety.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the gut microbiota on neuropsychiatric disorders has gained much attention in recent years; however, comprehensive data on the relationship between the gut microbiome and its metabolites and resistance to treatment for depression and anxiety is lacking. Here, we investigated intestinal metabolites in patients with depression and anxiety disorders, and their possible roles in treatment resistance. RESULTS: We analyzed fecal metabolites and microbiomes in 34 participants with depression and anxiety disorders. Fecal samples were obtained three times for each participant during the treatment. Propensity score matching led us to analyze data from nine treatment responders and nine non-responders, and the results were validated in the residual sample sets. Using elastic net regression analysis, we identified several metabolites, including N-ε-acetyllysine; baseline levels of the former were low in responders (AUC = 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-1). In addition, fecal levels of N-ε-acetyllysine were negatively associated with the abundance of Odoribacter. N-ε-acetyllysine levels increased as symptoms improved with treatment. CONCLUSION: Fecal N-ε-acetyllysine levels before treatment may be a predictive biomarker of treatment-refractory depression and anxiety. Odoribacter may play a role in the homeostasis of intestinal L-lysine levels. More attention should be paid to the importance of L-lysine metabolism in those with depression and anxiety.

A genomic predictor for age at sexual maturity for mammalian species.

Age at sexual maturity is a key life history trait that can be used to predict population growth rates and develop life history models. In many wild animal species, the age at sexual maturity is not accurately quantified. This results in a reduced ability to accurately model demography of wild populations. Recent studies have indicated the potential for CpG density within gene promoters to be predictive of other life history traits, specifically maximum lifespan. Here, we have developed a machine learning model using gene promoter CpG density to predict the mean age at sexual maturity in mammalian species. In total, 91 genomes were used to identify 101 unique gene promoters predictive of age at sexual maturity across males and females. We found these gene promoters to be most predictive of age at sexual maturity in females (R 2 = 0.881) compared to males (R 2 = 0.758). The median absolute error rate was also found to be lower in females (0.427 years) compared to males (0.785 years). This model provides a novel method for species-level age at sexual maturity prediction without the need for long-term monitoring. This study also highlights a potential epigenetic mechanism for the onset of sexual maturity, indicating the possibility of using epigenetic biomarkers for this important life history trait.

Tissue-specific RNA methylation prediction from gene expression data using sparse regression models.

N6-methyladenosine (m6A) is a highly prevalent and conserved post-transcriptional modification observed in mRNA and long non-coding RNA (lncRNA). Identifying potential m6A sites within RNA sequences is crucial for unraveling the potential influence of the epitranscriptome on biological processes. In this study, we introduce Exp2RM, a novel approach that formulates single-site-based tissue-specific elastic net models for predicting tissue-specific methylation levels utilizing gene expression data. The resulting ensemble model demonstrates robust predictive performance for tissue-specific methylation levels, with an average R-squared value of 0.496 and a median R-squared value of 0.482 across all 22 human tissues. Since methylation distribution varies among tissues, we trained the model to incorporate similar patterns, significantly improves accuracy with the median R-squared value increasing to 0.728. Additonally, functional analysis reveals Exp2RM's ability to capture coefficient genes in relevant biological processes. This study emphasizes the importance of tissue-specific methylation distribution in enhancing prediction accuracy and provides insights into the functional implications of methylation sites.

A time-course prediction model of global COVID-19 mortality.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 6 million deaths worldwide and is a significant cause of mortality. Mortality dynamics vary significantly by country due to pathogen, host, social and environmental factors, in addition to vaccination and treatments. However, there is limited data on the relative contribution of different explanatory variables, which may explain changes in mortality over time. We, therefore, created a predictive model using orthogonal machine learning techniques to attempt to quantify the contribution of static and dynamic variables over time. Methods: A model was created using Partial Least Squares Regression trained on data from 2020 to rank order the significance and effect size of static variables on mortality per country. This model enables the prediction of mortality levels for countries based on demographics alone. Partial Least Squares Regression was then used to quantify how dynamic variables, including weather and non-pharmaceutical interventions, contributed to the overall mortality in 2020. Finally, mortality levels for the first 60 days of 2021 were predicted using rolling-window Elastic Net regression. Results: This model allowed prediction of deaths per day and quantification of the degree of influence of included variables, accounting for timing of occurrence or implementation. We found that the most parsimonious model could be reduced to six variables; three policy-related variables - COVID-19 testing policy, canceled public events policy, workplace closing policy; in addition to three environmental variables - maximum temperature per day, minimum temperature per day, and the dewpoint temperature per day. Conclusion: Country and population-level static and dynamic variables can be used to predict COVID-19 mortality, providing an example of how broad temporal data can inform a preparation and mitigation strategy for both COVID-19 and future pandemics and assist decision-makers by identifying population-level contributors, including interventions, that have the greatest influence in mitigating mortality, and optimizing the health and safety of populations.