Common drivers shaping niche distribution and climate change responses of one hundred tree species.

Climate change is increasingly contributing to climatic mismatches, in which habitat suitability changes outpace the dispersal abilities of species. Climate niche models (CNM) have been widely used to assess such impacts on tree species. However, most studies have focused on either a single or a limited number of species, or have employed a fixed set of climate variables for multiple species. These limitations are largely due to the constraints of data availability, the complexity of the modeling algorithms, and integration approaches for the projections of diverse species. Therefore, whether specific climatic drivers determine the climatic niches of multiple tree species remains unclear. In this study, CNMs were developed for 100 economically and ecologically important tree species in China and were used to project their future distribution individually and collectively. Continentality was the predominant climate variable, affecting 71 species, followed by seasonal precipitation, which also significantly influenced over 50 species. Of the 100 tree species, the climate niche extent was projected to expand for 29 ("winners"), contract for 36 ("losers"), be stable for 27, and fluctuate for the remaining eight species. Principal component analysis showed that winners and losers were differentiated by geographic variables and the top five climatic variables, however, not by species type (deciduous vs. evergreen or conifer vs. broadleaf). The regions with the highest species richness were mainly distributed in the Hengduan Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot, and were predicted to increase from 5.2% to 7.5% of the total area. Areas with low species richness were projected to increase from 33.0% to 42.4%. Significant shifts in species composition were anticipated in these biodiversity-rich areas, suggesting potential disruption owing to species reshuffling. This study highlights the urgent need for proactive forest management and conservation strategies to address the impacts of climate change on tree species and preserve ecological functions by mitigating climatic mismatches. In addition, this study establishes a framework to identify the common environmental drivers affecting niche distribution and evaluates the collective patterns of multiple tree species, thereby providing a scientific reference for enhanced forestry management and climate change mitigation.

Recurrent Flooding and Household Food Access in Central Java, Indonesia.

It is unknown how recurring flooding impacts household diet in Central Java. We aimed to assess how recurrent flooding influenced household food access over 22 years in Central Java by linking the Global Surface Water dataset (GSW) to the Indonesian Family Life Survey. We examined linear and nonlinear relationships and joint effects with indicators of adaptive capacity. We measured recurrent flooding as the fraction of district raster cells with episodic flooding from 1984-2015 using GSW. Food access outcomes were household food expenditure share (FES) and dietary diversity score (DDS). We fit generalized linear mixed models and random forest regression models. We detected joint effects with flooding and adaptive capacity. Wealth and access to credit were associated with improved FES and DDS. The effect of wealth on FES was stronger in households in more flood-affected districts, while access to credit was associated with reduced odds of DDS in more flood-affected districts. Flooding had more predictive importance for FES than for DDS. Access to credit, a factor that ordinarily improves food access, may not be effective in flood-prone areas. Wealthier households may be better able to adapt in terms of food access. Future research should incorporate land use data to understand how different locales are affected and further understand the complexity of these relationships.

Advances in understanding Lepidoptera cold tolerance.

Ambient thermal conditions mediate insect growth, development, reproduction, survival, and distribution. With increasingly frequent and severe cold spells, it is critical to determine low-temperature performance and cold tolerances of ecologically and economically essential insect groups to predict their responses to global environmental change. This review covers the cold tolerance strategies of 49 species of Lepidoptera (moths and butterflies), focusing on species that are known as crop pests and crop storage facilities. We synthesize cold tolerance strategies of well-studied species within this order, finding that diapause is a distinctive mechanism that has independently evolved in different genera and families of Lepidoptera. However, the occurrence of diapause in each life stage is specific to the species, and in most studied lepidopteran species, the feeding stage (as larva) is the predominant overwintering stage. We also found that the onset of diapause and the improvement of cold tolerance are interdependent phenomena that typically occur together. Moreover, adopting a cold tolerance strategy is not an inherent, fixed trait and is greatly influenced by a species' geographic distribution and rearing conditions. This review further finds that freeze avoidance rather than freeze tolerance or chill susceptibility is the primary cold tolerance strategy among lepidopteran species. The cold hardiness of lepidopteran insects primarily depends on the accumulation of cryoprotectants and the depression of the supercooling point. We highlight variations in cold tolerance strategies and mechanisms among a subset of Lepidoptera, however, further work is needed to elucidate these strategies for the vast numbers of neglected species and populations to understand broad-scale responses to global change.

A Pliocene boxfish (Tetraodontiformes, Ostraciidae) from New Zealand - a preview of future environmental change?

We report on an articulated fossil boxfish (Tetraodontiformes, Ostraciidae) recently recovered from the Pliocene of the North Island of New Zealand. The specimen was collected from the Tangahoe Formation, a mid-Pliocene (c. 3.0-3.4 Ma) shallow marine deposit, at Waihi Beach, South Taranaki. The fossil boxfish measures 10.7 cm in standard length, with an estimated total length of c. 13-14 cm (the caudal fin is not preserved). The fish is preserved in right lateral view, lying on its side, and has an intact body covering of fused hydroxyapatite plates that rigidly encase the fish, as is characteristic of boxfishes. The plates are hexagonal to subhexagonal in shape and largest close to the dorsal midline. Fossil boxfish have previously been recorded from Northern Hemisphere sites ranging in age from Palaeocene to Quaternary, but not from the Southern Hemisphere. Recent reports note that boxfishes and several other tropical Pacific fish species are now being seen off of northern New Zealand - the Pliocene boxfish from Taranaki, as well as an intriguing addition to New Zealand's paleohistory, may also reflect how the ongoing impact of climate change will return New Zealand to a warmer marine ecosystem - similar to what prevailed during the Pliocene.

Animal personality in multiple stressor environments: the evolutionary ecology of among-individual differences in responses to stressor suites.

Animal personality differences may have evolved as alternative strategies for negotiating multiple stressor landscapes. Indeed, ecologists are increasingly recognizing that interactions among multiple stressors can transform selective landscapes and behavioural and physiological responses to stress regimes. Yet, evaluating this hypothesis poses challenges, as most studies involving relationships between personality variation and the environment consider single stressors. Here, we review the literature to explore the theory and evidence that multiple stressor environments may mediate personality variation. We consider effects on evolution of personality variation, as influenced by life-history, energetic and behavioural trade-offs, and effects on phenotypic expression of personality traits. We then explore how personality variation may modulate behavioural and physiological responses to multiple stressors, and how differential responses may be affected by personality-dependent movement ecology and cognitive strategies. Among-individual differences in responses to multiple stressors are critical to elucidate, as multi-stress interactions may transform animal behavioural and physiological responses relative to those predicted under single stressor scenarios, and because among-individual variation comprises the basis for evolutionary shifts in stress responsiveness and population resiliency to global environmental change.

Coastal marine habitats deterioration according to users' perception: the case of Cap de Creus Marine Protected Area (NE Spain).

Assessing how different users of a Marine Protected Area perceive environmental changes can contribute to design management strategies. We assess how locals and tourists perceive environmental changes in the Cap de Creus protected area (NW Mediterranean, Spain). To identify locally perceived changes, we first conducted semi-structured interviews with locals (n = 38). Reported environmental changes were then used to construct a survey applied to locals and tourists (n = 427). In semi-structured interviews, environmental changes were the least reported changes compared to economic and social changes; reports of negative environmental changes dominated over reports of positive environmental changes. Overall, all survey participants reported a decline of the health status of the local environment, with locals displaying higher levels of agreement with statements referring to coastal environmental deterioration than tourists. The predominance of responses reporting economic versus environmental changes can be explained by the recent radical transformation of the area towards tourism. Reports of coastal marine area deterioration are in line with available instrumental data. Higher levels of agreement with statements referring to environmental deterioration among locals than among tourists highlight the importance of people's connection with nature to assess change. Considering that Cap de Creus has been protected for more than two decades, our findings raise concerns regarding its ongoing deterioration and underscore the importance of monitoring the effectiveness of marine protection to modulate management strategies. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-024-02322-4.

Can recent evolutionary history promote resilience to environmental change?

Principles of social evolution have long been used retrospectively to interpret social interactions, but have less commonly been applied predictively to inform conservation and animal husbandry strategies. We investigate whether differences in developmental environment, facilitated by divergent social conditions, can predict resilience to environmental change. Upon exposure to harsh novel environments, populations that previously experienced more benign social environments are predicted either to suffer fitness losses (the "mutation load hypothesis" and "selection filter hypothesis") or maintain fitness (the "beneficial mutation hypothesis"). We tested these contrasting predictions using populations of burying beetles Nicrophorus vespilloides we had evolved experimentally for 45 generations under contrasting social environments by manipulating the supply of post-hatching parental care. We exposed sexually immature adults from each population to varying heat stress and measured the effect on survival and reproduction. The greater the level of parental care previously experienced by a population, the better its survival under heat stress during sexual maturation. Although this is consistent with the "beneficial mutation hypothesis," it is also possible that populations that had evolved without post-hatching care were simply more prone to dying during maturation, regardless of their thermal environment. Overall, we suggest that stochastic genetic variation, probably due to founder effects, had a stronger influence on resilience. We discuss the implications for translocation and captive breeding programs.

Severe fire regimes decrease resilience of ectothermic populations.

Understanding populations' responses to environmental change is crucial for mitigating human-induced disturbances. Here, we test hypotheses regarding how three essential components of demographic resilience (resistance, compensation and recovery) co-vary along the distinct life histories of three lizard species exposed to variable, prescribed fire regimes. Using a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we estimate vital rates (survival, growth and reproduction) with 14 years of monthly individual-level data and mark-recapture models to parameterize stochastic integral projection models from five sites in Brazilian savannas, each historically subjected to different fire regimes. With these models, we investigate how weather, microclimate and ecophysiological traits of each species influence their vital rates, emergent life history traits and demographic resilience components in varying fire regimes. Overall, weather and microclimate are better predictors of the species' vital rates, rather than their ecophysiological traits. Our findings reveal that severe fire regimes increase populations' resistance but decrease compensation or recovery abilities. Instead, populations have higher compensatory and recovery abilities at intermediate degrees of fire severity. Additionally, we identify generation time and reproductive output as predictors of resilience trends across fire regimes and climate. Our analyses demonstrate that the probability and quantity of monthly reproduction are the proximal drivers of demographic resilience across the three species. Our findings suggest that populations surpass a tipping point in severe fire regimes and achieve an alternative stable state to persist. Thus, higher heterogeneity in fire regimes can increase the reproductive aspects and resilience of different populations and avoid high-severity regimes that homogenize the environment. Despite being more resistant, species with long generation times and low reproductive output take longer to recover and cannot compensate as much as species with faster paces of life. We emphasize how reproductive constraints, such as viviparity and fixed clutch sizes, impact the ability of ectothermic populations to benefit and recover from disturbances, underscoring their relevance in conservation assessments.

Effect of the ten-year fishing ban on change of phytoplankton community structure: Insights from the Gan River.

The Yangtze River is one of the largest riverine ecosystems in the world and is a biodiversity hotspot. In recent years, this river ecosystem has undergone rapid habitat deterioration due to anthropogenic disturbances, leading to a decrease in freshwater biodiversity. Owing to these anthropogenic impacts, the Chinese government imposed a "Ten-year fishing ban" (TYFB) in the Yangtze River and its tributaries. Ecological changes associated with this decision have not been documented to evaluate the level of success. This study evaluates the success of the TYFB by analyzing the changes in phytoplankton communities and comparing them to periods before the TYFB was imposed. A total of 325 phytoplankton species belonging to 7 phyla and 103 genera dominated by Chlorophyceae and Bacillariophyceae were identified. Species diversity according to the Shannon-Wiener ranged between 1.19 and 3.00. The results indicated that phytoplankton diversity increased, while both density and biomass decreased after the TYFB. The health of the aquatic ecosystem appeared to have improved after the TYFB, as indicated by the phytoplankton-based index of biotic integrity. Significant seasonal and spatial differences were found among the number of species, density, and biomass of phytoplankton, where these differences were correlated with pH, water depth, chlorophyll-a, permanganate index, transparency, copper, ammonia nitrogen, and total phosphorus based on redundancy analysis. Results from this study indicate that the TYFB played an important role in the restoration of freshwater ecosystem in the Yangtze River and its tributaries.

Dyeing waters: Does indiscriminate dye use threaten aquatic ecosystems?

Aquatic ecosystem conservation is imperative to reaching global biodiversity and sustainability targets. However, the ecological status of waters has been continuously eroded through mismanagement in the face of existing and emerging anthropogenic stressors, such as pollutants. There has been an emerging trend towards the use of dyes to manage algae and plants as well as to alter aesthetics within various aquatic environments. This artificial colouring has potential ecological implications through reductions in light levels and disruptions to thermoclines (i.e., temperature regime changes with depth). Abiotic regime shifts could in turn drive ecological cascades by depowering primary production, hampering top-down trophic interactions, and affecting evolved animal behaviours. Despite commercial dyes being marketed as acutely non-toxic, very little is known about the chronic effects of these dyes across ecological scales and contexts. We thus call for greater research efforts to understand the ecological consequences of dye usage in aquatic environments, as well as the socio-cultural drivers for its application. This emerging research area could harness approaches such as biological assays, community module experiments, remote sensing, culturomics, and social surveys to elucidate dye effects, trends, and perspectives under a pollution framework. A greater understanding of the potential effects of dye in aquatic ecosystems under relevant contexts would help to inform management decisions and regulation options, while helping to mediate ecocentric and anthropocentric perspectives.

Urbanization-associated range expansion genetically homogenizes a butterfly species.

Human-induced environmental change and globalization facilitate biological invasions, which can lead to the displacement of native species by non-native ones.1,2,3,4 Analogously, biodiversity loss may occur within species when habitat modifications facilitate the expansion of a specific population's range, leading to genetic admixture with native local populations. We demonstrate such intraspecific loss in population-level diversity in the Southern Small White (Pieris mannii), an originally sedentary butterfly5 that recently expanded its range across Central Europe due to urbanization.6,7,8 Using genome-wide markers from historical museum specimens and contemporary samples, we identify a distinct population initiating this expansion and reveal the genetic homogenization of native local populations by admixture with the expansive one. Our study illustrates how human-made environmental change can simultaneously benefit a species by permitting range expansion and drive cryptic biodiversity loss through the genetic homogenization of conspecific populations.

Fostering Responsible Conduct of Research for Early-Stage Investigators: Challenges and Opportunities.

The rise of academic misconduct poses significant challenges to the integrity and credibility of scholarly research. Early-stage investigators (ESIs), particularly those representing marginalized groups, face unique pressures in navigating the "publish or perish" paradigm while establishing their careers. This commentary articulates strategies for cultivating research environments conducive to the responsible conduct of research (RCR) for ESIs. By establishing shared values, planning research meticulously, conducting research collaboratively, and reporting findings transparently, ESIs can foster a culture of prevention and accountability in research. Ultimately, navigating beyond traditional methodologies to support RCR necessitates a fundamental reimagining of academic culture, reconceptualizing productivity to prioritize quality over quantity, and to encompass "invisible" work often shouldered by investigators with marginalized identities. Addressing scientific misconduct challenges requires a whole-system approach, encompassing individual leadership, policy changes, and institutional accountability. By implementing concrete strategies and systemic reforms, academia can reaffirm its commitment to responsible research conduct and safeguard the integrity of scholarly endeavors.

The Impact of Climate Change, Pollution, and Biodiversity Loss on Digestive Health and Disease.

The environment is changing rapidly under pressure from 3 related drivers: climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss. These environmental changes are affecting digestive health and disease in multiple ways. Heat extremes can cause intestinal and hepatic dysfunction. Access to adequate amounts of food of high nutritional content and to clean water is under threat. Extreme weather is associated with flooding and enteric infections and affects the delivery of care through infrastructure loss. Air, water, and soil pollution from chemicals and plastics are emerging as risk factors for a variety of intestinal diseases including eosinophilic esophagitis, metabolic dysfunction associated fatty liver disease, digestive tract cancers, inflammatory bowel disease, and functional bowel disease. Migration of populations to cities and between countries poses a special challenge to the delivery of digestive care. The response to the threat of environmental change is well underway in the global digestive health community, especially with regard to understanding and reducing the environmental impact of endoscopy. Individuals, and peer societies, are becoming more engaged, and have an important role to play in meeting the challenge.

The accuracy of predicting maladaptation to new environments with genomic data.

Rapid environmental change poses unprecedented challenges to species persistence. To understand the extent that continued change could have, genomic offset methods have been used to forecast maladaptation of natural populations to future environmental change. However, while their use has become increasingly common, little is known regarding their predictive performance across a wide array of realistic and challenging scenarios. Here, we evaluate the performance of currently available offset methods (gradientForest, the Risk-Of-Non-Adaptedness, redundancy analysis with and without structure correction and LFMM2) using an extensive set of simulated data sets that vary demography, adaptive architecture and the number and spatial patterns of adaptive environments. For each data set, we train models using either all, adaptive or neutral marker sets and evaluate performance using in silico common gardens by correlating known fitness with projected offset. Using over 4,849,600 of such evaluations, we find that (1) method performance is largely due to the degree of local adaptation across the metapopulation (LA), (2) adaptive marker sets provide minimal performance advantages, (3) performance within the species range is variable across gardens and declines when offset models are trained using additional non-adaptive environments and (4) despite (1) performance declines more rapidly in globally novel climates (i.e. a climate without an analogue within the species range) for metapopulations with greater LA than lesser LA. We discuss the implications of these results for management, assisted gene flow and assisted migration.

Assessing the potential of n-alkyl amides and n-alkyl nitriles in the arid sedimentary strata of northwestern China as environmental indicators.

Recent advancements in the application of lipid biomarkers as paleoenvironmental indicators have provided invaluable insights into the dynamics of climatic variations, vegetative histories, and anthropogenic impacts. However, our current understanding of nitrogen-containing lipid biomarkers (NCLBs) in sedimentary deposits remains limited, notwithstanding their potential significance in global nitrogen cycling. To bridge this research gap, a comprehensive study was conducted to characterize the distribution patterns of n-alkyl amides (NAAs) and n-alkyl nitriles (NANs) in representative paleo-lake and loess sedimentary profiles from the arid region of northwestern China (NWC). The widespread occurrence of these NCLBs across late Quaternary strata, with distinct distribution patterns observed in various settings, suggests their formation under diverse environmental conditions. The prevalence of NAAs in arid sedimentary deposits can primarily be attributed to the diverse array of local biota, including vascular plants, algae, and fungi, rather than being solely associated with biomass burning, as commonly assumed. Furthermore, the distribution patterns of NANs closely align with those of NAAs, indicating their formation through thermally induced dehydration of precursor NAAs. Both groups of NCLBs exhibit significant preservation potential in sediments within NWC, which is believed to be intimately linked to the region's arid and cold climate as well as its neutral or weakly alkaline depositional setting. These findings underscore the prospective use of NAAs as indicators of environmental changes and NANs as potential markers of past fire-related activities, making them valuable tools for paleoenvironmental reconstructions of late Quaternary strata, especially in arid, cold, and weakly alkaline regions.

Permanent Stress Adaptation and Unexpected High Light Tolerance in the Shade-Adapted Chlamydomonas priscui.

The Antarctic photopsychrophile, Chlamydomonas priscui UWO241, is adapted to extreme environmental conditions, including permanent low temperatures, high salt, and shade. During long-term exposure to this extreme habitat, UWO241 appears to have lost several short-term mechanisms in favor of constitutive protection against environmental stress. This study investigated the physiological and growth responses of UWO241 to high-light conditions, evaluating the impacts of long-term acclimation to high light, low temperature, and high salinity on its ability to manage short-term photoinhibition. We found that UWO241 significantly increased its growth rate and photosynthetic activity at growth irradiances far exceeding native light conditions. Furthermore, UWO241 exhibited robust protection against short-term photoinhibition, particularly in photosystem I. Lastly, pre-acclimation to high light or low temperatures, but not high salinity, enhanced photoinhibition tolerance. These findings extend our understanding of stress tolerance in extremophilic algae. In the past 2 decades, climate change-related increasing glacial stream flow has perturbed long-term stable conditions, which has been associated with lake level rise, the thinning of ice covers, and the expansion of ice-free perimeters, leading to perturbations in light and salinity conditions. Our findings have implications for phytoplankton survival and the response to change scenarios in the light-limited environment of Antarctic ice-covered lakes.

Reflecting on the symmetry of ecosystem tipping points: The influence of trait dissimilarity and environmental driver dynamics in a simple ecosystem model.

Our understanding of the similarity in trajectories of ecosystem changes during different directions of environmental change is limited. For example, do the dominant organisms exhibit the same responses to different directions of environmental change, that is, do they exhibit symmetric responses? Here, we explore whether such response symmetry is determined and controlled by the symmetry in the features of the underlying biological system (i.e., system symmetry), such as in the network and strength of biotic and abiotic processes, and in symmetry of the environmental change (i.e., environmental symmetry). For this exploration, we developed and used a simple mathematical model of a microbial ecosystem driven by mutual inhibition in which we could vary the amount of system and environmental symmetry. Our results show that perfect system and environmental symmetry indeed produce perfect response symmetry. Moreover, introducing asymmetry in biological systems or in the environment proportionally increases response asymmetry. These findings suggest using symmetries in ecosystem structure and interaction strength to better understand and predict similarities in degradation and restoration phases of environmental change.

The complex effects of modern oncogenic environments on the fitness, evolution and conservation of wildlife species.

Growing evidence indicates that human activities are causing cancer rates to rise in both human and wildlife populations. This is due to the inability of ancestral anti-cancer defences to cope with modern environmental risks. The evolutionary mismatch between modern oncogenic risks and evolved cancer defences has far-reaching effects on various biological aspects at different timeframes, demanding a comprehensive study of the biology and evolutionary ecology of the affected species. Firstly, the increased activation of anti-cancer defences leads to excessive energy expenditure, affecting other biological functions and potentially causing health issues like autoimmune diseases. Secondly, tumorigenesis itself can impact important fitness-related parameters such as competitiveness, predator evasion, resistance to parasites, and dispersal capacity. Thirdly, rising cancer risks can influence the species' life-history traits, often favoring early reproduction to offset fitness costs associated with cancer. However, this strategy has its limits, and it may not ensure the sustainability of the species if cancer risks continue to rise. Lastly, some species may evolve additional anti-cancer defences, with uncertain consequences for their biology and future evolutionary path. In summary, we argue that the effects of increased exposure to cancer-causing substances on wildlife are complex, ranging from immediate responses to long-term evolutionary changes. Understanding these processes, especially in the context of conservation biology, is urgently needed.

Cumulative adversity and survival in the wild.

Protecting populations contending with co-occurring stressors requires a better understanding of how multiple early-life stressors affect the fitness of natural systems. However, the complexity of such research has limited its advancement and prevented us from answering new questions. In human studies, cumulative risk models predict adult health risk based on early adversity exposure. We apply a similar framework in wild yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer). We tested cumulative adversity indices (CAIs) across different adversity types and time windows. All CAIs were associated with decreased pup survival and were well supported. Moderate and acute, but not standardized CAIs were associated with decreased lifespan, supporting the cumulative stress hypothesis and the endurance of early adversity. Multivariate models showed that differences in lifespan were driven by weaning date, precipitation, and maternal loss, but they performed poorly compared with CAI models. We highlight the development, utility, and insights of CAI approaches for ecology and conservation.

Effect of the Seed Bank on Evolutionary Rescue in Small Populations: Univariate and Multivariate Demogenetic Dynamics.

AbstractUnder global change, the impact of seed banks on evolutionary rescue is uncertain. They buffer plant populations from demographic and genetic stochasticity but extend generation time and can become a reservoir of maladapted alleles. We built analytical and individual-based models to predict the effect of seed banks on the persistence of small annual plant populations facing an abrupt or sustained directional change in uni- or multivariate trait optima. Demogenetic dynamics predict that under most scenarios seed banks increase the lag yet enhance persistence to 200-250 years by absorbing demographic losses. Simulations indicate that the seed bank has a minimal impact on the genetic skew, although we suggest that this result could depend on the fitness component under selection. Our multivariate model reveals that by enlarging and reshaping the G matrix, seed banks can diminish the impact of mutational correlation and even accelerate adaptation under antagonistic pleiotropy relative to populations without a bank. We illustrate how the magnitude of optimum fluctuations, type and degree of optimum change, selection strength, and vital rates are weights that tip the scales determining persistence. Finally, our work highlights that migration from the past is not maladaptative when optimum fluctuations are large enough to create stepping stones to the new optimum.