Family Formation and Employment Changes Among Descendants of Immigrants in France: A Multiprocess Analysis.

This paper investigates the association between family formation and the labour market trajectories of immigrants' descendants over the life course. Using rich data from the Trajectories and Origins survey from France, we apply multilevel event history models to analyse the transitions in and out of employment for both men and women by parity. We account for unobserved co-determinants of childbearing and employment by applying a simultaneous-equations modelling. Our analysis shows that women's professional careers are negatively associated with childbirth. There are differences across descendant groups. The female descendants of Turkish immigrants are more likely to exit employment and less likely to re-enter employment following childbirth than women from other groups. The negative impact of childbearing on employment is slightly overestimated among women due to unobserved selection effects. Among men, the descendants of European immigrants are less likely to exit employment after having a child than other descendant groups. The study demonstrates the negative effect of childbearing on women's employment, which is pronounced for some minority groups suggesting the need for further policies to help women reconcile work with family life.

Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce in Sweden, 1920-2015.

Many studies demonstrate an intergenerational transmission of divorce with a focus primarily on more recent decades; however, the extent to which this relationship is deeply rooted or has changed over time remains unclear. Explanations, including sociodemographic and interpersonal factors, have been offered as links between parental divorce and the stability of offspring's marriage. We use individual-level longitudinal data from the Scanian Economic-Demographic Database to estimate the intergenerational transmission of divorce among first marriages in Sweden over the period 1920-2015. Our investigation focuses on the correlation between parental divorce and offspring's divorce during the transition from a low- to a high-divorce regime. Findings reveal surprising stability in the transmission despite fundamental societal change over the years. Notably, the risk of divorce is highest when either the wife or both spouses have experienced parental divorce. Moreover, the transmission of divorce across time appears to be stronger and more stable for women than for men. These results suggest the intergenerational transmission of divorce is part of the divorce transition and highlight the role of women's independence in this intricate but not yet fully understood process.

Identifying factors influencing local governments' adoption of comprehensive smoke-free policies: an event history analysis based on panel data from 36 key cities in China (2013-2021).

Introduction: The issue of tobacco control remains a significant concern for public health worldwide. In recent years, remarkable progress has been made toward adopting smoke-free measures in indoor public places. Although China has yet to introduce a national regulation, specifically for smoke-free public places, more than a dozen cities have successively approved and implemented comprehensive smoke-free regulations. Different cities in China have diverse attitudes and behaviors toward smoke-free policies; however, the reasons for these policy differences and the influencing factors have not received sufficient attention and research. Methods: On the basis of the multiple streams framework, this study selects 36 key Chinese cities as research samples and uses a directed dyad-year event history analysis method to analyze the factors influencing the implementation of comprehensive smoke-free policies in cities. Results: Results show that the adoption of such policies is positively influenced by scientific evidence, focal events, media coverage, institutional foundations, economic comparisons, and the influence of health departments and of tobacco control groups. By contrast, policy adoption is negatively affected by the differences in administrative levels, central policy signals, and the influence of the tobacco industry. Discussion: This study contributes to understanding the internal logic behind local governments' adoption of comprehensive smoke-free policies, offering insights for further advocacy at the city and national levels in China and providing experiences that can promote the global tobacco control movement.

Drink and drive? Understanding the dynamics of youth risk-taking.

We exploit a reduction in the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) in New Zealand from 20 to 18 to study the dynamics of youth risk-taking. Using the universe of road accidents over 15 years and an event history approach, we find no evidence that lowering the drinking age increased alcohol-related accidents among teens. Complementary results of a cohort analysis suggest that reducing the drinking age even led to a short-term decline in risky driving among youths directly affected by the MLDA change but had no longer-run impacts on youth risky driving and drinking behaviors.

Colonoscopy and Subsequent Risk of Parkinson's Disease.

Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) is caused by the misfolding and aggregation of α-synuclein in neurons into toxic oligomers and fibrils that have prion-like properties allowing them to infect healthy neurons and to be transmitted to animal models of PD by injection or oral exposure. Given α-synuclein fibrils' potential transmission on the gut-brain axis, α-synuclein may be transmitted through colonoscopy procedures. Objective: This study examines a possible association between colonoscopy and PD. Methods: Longitudinal health insurance data of 250,000 individuals aged 50+ from 2004-2019 was analyzed. Cox proportional hazard and competing risk models with death as a competing event were estimated to calculate the risk of PD. Colonoscopy was categorized as never receiving colonoscopy, colorectal cancer (CRC) screening without or with biopsy, destruction or excision (BDE), and diagnostic colonoscopy without or with BDE. Results: We identified 6,422 new cases of PD among 221,582 individuals. The Cox model revealed a significantly increased risk of PD for patients who ever had a diagnostic colonoscopy without or with BDE (HR = 1.31; 95% CI: [1.23-1.40]; HR = 1.32 [1.22-1.42]) after adjustment for age and sex. After controlling for covariates and death, persons who ever underwent CRC screening had a 40% reduced risk of PD (CRHR = 0.60 [0.54-0.67]), while persons who underwent diagnostic colonoscopy had a 20% reduced risk of PD (CRHR = 0.81 [0.75-0.88]). Conclusions: Colonoscopy does not increase the risk of PD, after adjusting for death and covariates. Individuals who underwent only CRC screening had the lowest risk of PD, which may be a result of a more health-conscious lifestyle.

Gender Differences in the Protective Role of Grandparenting in Dementia Risk.

OBJECTIVES: This study provides one of the first national longitudinal studies of the association between caring for grandchildren (i.e., grandparenting) and the risk of dementia in the United States, with a focus on gender-specific variations. METHODS: We estimated discrete-time event history models, drawing upon data from the Health and Retirement Study (2000-2016). The analytic sample included 10,217 community-dwelling White and Black grandparents aged 52 years and older at baseline. RESULTS: Noncoresident grandparenting was associated with a lower risk of dementia for both women and men compared to grandparents who did not take care of grandchildren. However, the cognitive advantage showed different patterns based on gender and the combination of care intensity and family structure. Grandmothers had a lower risk of dementia than noncaregiving grandmothers when providing a light level of noncoresident grandparenting, whereas grandfathers who provided intensive noncoresident grandparenting had a reduced risk of dementia compared to their noncaregiving counterparts. Grandparenting experiences within multigenerational households and skipped-generation households were not associated with dementia risk. DISCUSSION: Intergenerational caregiving plays a pivotal role in shaping cognitive health during later life; however, the impact is nuanced, depending on factors such as gender, care intensity, and family structure.

Central policy attitudes and innovation diffusion of local government: the case of China's river chief system.

The central government's policy attitude will affect local governments' innovation adoption behavior, but the diffusion process is not static, which shows dynamic changes. This essay illustrates the spreading process of the Chinese River Chief System (RCS). It discusses how the factors influencing the diffusion of the RCS alter dynamically under various policy attitudes of the central government by using the segmented Event History Analysis (EHA) and Piecewise Constant Exponential (PCE) models. The results found that, under the central government's implicit policy attitude, peer city pressure and official promotion increase the probability of adoption of the RCS. When the central government's policy encourages the attitude, intra-city factors and peer city pressure affect the diffusion of the RCS. Still, official promotion is no longer an influential influencing factor. All three factors are no longer practical when the central government introduces mandatory regulations. In addition, vertical higher-level pressure and horizontal peer city pressure on adopting the RCS are competitive rather than complementary relationships. Local governments' attitudes regarding the RCS went through a path of "good governance signal-governance tool-authority obedience" under the varied policy philosophies of the central government. Local governments pay more attention to the actual circumstances in the region due to the non-mandatory central government direction, which advances the art of adopting policies. Contrarily, the central government's stipulations render the other factors' policies obsolete.

The Impact of Education on Fertility During the Chinese Reform Era (1980-2018): Changes Across Birth Cohorts and Interaction with Fertility Policies.

We examined the influence of education on fertility decisions in contemporary China, drawing upon theoretical insights that emphasise the role of social institutions, gender relations, and life course dynamics in shaping family behaviour. This led us to propose a set of hypotheses that explain the differential effect of education on each parity. We used information on female cohorts born between 1960 and 1989, coming from the China Family Panel Studies for 2010-2018. We applied event history models with both independent and simultaneous equations models to account for selection and endogeneity effects. The results point to a substantial contribution of the increased educational attainment in the population in the fertility decline and current low levels of fertility, beyond the role of fertility policies. Consistent with our hypotheses, the results show that woman's educational attainment has a strong negative effect on the hazard of bearing a second or third child. Male partner's educational attainment also has a negative effect on the hazard of transition to a second or third birth, yet with a weaker intensity. We also found that the negative effect of education on second birth rates significantly declines across birth cohorts. The results show little educational differentials in the probability of bearing a first child, while the better educated postpone first births. Moreover, the effect of fertility policies, measured at the individual level, gradually increases with the level of education.

Causal inference with recurrent and competing events.

Many research questions concern treatment effects on outcomes that can recur several times in the same individual. For example, medical researchers are interested in treatment effects on hospitalizations in heart failure patients and sports injuries in athletes. Competing events, such as death, complicate causal inference in studies of recurrent events because once a competing event occurs, an individual cannot have more recurrent events. Several statistical estimands have been studied in recurrent event settings, with and without competing events. However, the causal interpretations of these estimands, and the conditions that are required to identify these estimands from observed data, have yet to be formalized. Here we use a formal framework for causal inference to formulate several causal estimands in recurrent event settings, with and without competing events. When competing events exist, we clarify when commonly used classical statistical estimands can be interpreted as causal quantities from the causal mediation literature, such as (controlled) direct effects and total effects. Furthermore, we show that recent results on interventionist mediation estimands allow us to define new causal estimands with recurrent and competing events that may be of particular clinical relevance in many subject matter settings. We use causal directed acyclic graphs and single world intervention graphs to illustrate how to reason about identification conditions for the various causal estimands based on subject matter knowledge. Furthermore, using results on counting processes, we show that our causal estimands and their identification conditions, which are articulated in discrete time, converge to classical continuous time counterparts in the limit of fine discretizations of time. We propose estimators and establish their consistency for the various identifying functionals. Finally, we use the proposed estimators to compute the effect of blood pressure lowering treatment on the recurrence of acute kidney injury using data from the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial.

Dynamic household structure and composition: a manual for longitudinal analysis of living arrangements.

OBJECTIVE: This research note introduces a set of tools to conduct analysis of household structure and composition with either limited or comprehensive longitudinal data. The data used here are from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Africa, but the methods can be adapted and applied to other longitudinal micro-data such as register data. A training manual describing the procedures for creating time-varying household measures step-by-step is supplied as supplementary material to this note. Code is provided in STATA but can easily be translated for other statistical software, and the logic for each step remains the same. RESULTS: The analysis of household structure demonstrates how with limited data (such as a household identifier), it is possible to construct time-varying measures of household membership, including household size or the number of members in specific age and sex groups. The analysis of household composition demonstrates how with expanded data (including links to parents in addition to residence status in the same household), it is possible to construct time-varying measures of household membership of specific kin, i.e. mother, sibling or grandparent. The results illustrated in this research note are a taste of what can be achieved by following the training manual in the supplementary material.

Widening the knowledge of non-employment as a risk factor for suicide: a Norwegian register-based population study.

BACKGROUND: There is a known association between employment status and suicide risk. However, both reason for non-employment and the duration affects the relationship. These factors are investigated to a lesser extent. About one third of the Norwegian working age population are not currently employed. Due to the share size of this population even a small increase in suicide risk is of importance, and hence increased knowledge about this group is needed. METHODS: We used discrete time event history analysis to examine the relationship between suicide risk and non-employment due to either unemployment or health-problems, and the duration of these non-employment periods. We analyze data from the Norwegian population registry from 2004 to 2014, which includes all Norwegian residents in the ages 19-58 born between 1952 and 1989. In total the data consists of 1 063 052 men and 1 024 238 women, and 2 039 suicides. RESULTS: The suicide risk among the non-employed men and women is significantly higher than that of the employed. For the unemployed men, the suicide risk is significantly higher than the employed within the first 18 months. For the unemployed women we only find a significant association with suicide risk among those unemployed for six to twelve months. The suicide risk is especially increased among those with temporary health-related benefits. In the second year of health-related non-employment men have eightfold and women over twelvefold the OR for suicide, compared to the employed. CONCLUSION: There is an association between non-employment and suicide risk. Compared to the employed both unemployed men and men and women with health-related non-employment have elevated suicide risk, and the duration of non-employment may be the driving force. Considering the large share of the working age population that are not employed, non-employment status should be considered in suicide risk assessment by health care professionals and welfare providers.

The changing social gradient of marriage and cohabitation in seven Latin American countries.

While research shows that cohabitation has increased significantly among highly educated individuals in Latin America, much less is known about how the relationship between educational attainment and first union formation has changed over time and across the region's countries. Accordingly, this paper describes the changes across cohorts in the type of first union (marriage or cohabitation) entered by women from seven Latin American countries. It also analyzes trends in the relationship between women's education and the type of first union within and between these countries. Using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data, life tables, discrete-time event history models, and predicted probabilities were estimated to analyze the changing determinants of first-union formation. The results pointed to an overall increase in first-union cohabitation over time, with some important differences across countries. The multivariate analysis suggested that women's education influences the type and sequencing of the first union, with socioeconomically disadvantaged women increasingly likely to transition to early unions and enter cohabitation rather than marriage.

Event history analysis on racial disparities in the path to adoption for Black and White children.

BACKGROUND: Black children are significantly overrepresented in many phases of the U.S. child welfare system. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to investigate racial disproportionality and disparities in the adoption process and factors that predict the length of time to adoption. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: This study utilized administrative data from the 2014 year of the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) collected in 50 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. METHODS: The disproportionality metric (DM) and disparity index (DI) were constructed for Black and White children, and event history analyses were conducted to calculate the probability of adoption while considering the time to adoption finalization. RESULTS: DM indicated that Black children (0.81) were underrepresented in adoption, and DI indicated that the likelihood of adoption for Black children (0.73) was one third lower than that for White children. The event history analyses revealed that White children were 1.27 times more likely to be adopted than Black children. White children had considerably fewer days from termination of parental rights to adoption finalization with a median time of 273.5 days compared to 328 days for Black children. Factors that extended adoption time included child intellectual, physical, and emotional/behavioral disabilities, visual and hearing impairments, parental alcohol abuse and disability, and child maltreatment histories, while parental drug abuse and longer stays in out-of-home care shortened the adoption process. We also found a significant interaction effect of race and neglect on adoption. Neglected Black children had a longer time to adoption than neglected White children. CONCLUSIONS: More dedicated outreach programs and resources must be developed to ensure the effectiveness of adoption services and cultural continuity for Black children.

Is Policy the Necessary or Sufficient Driving Force of Construction and Demolition Waste Recycling Industry Development? Experience from China.

Policies have long been considered the essential driving force in promoting construction and demolition waste (CDW) recycling. However, the policy instruments adopted in different economies have varied greatly, which contributes to the difficulty in quantitative discernment of their effect. This study aims to examine whether the holistic employment of policy measures determines the development of CDW recycling around China. To accurately measure the holistic adoption of CDW policies, this study assessed policy strength via a proposed three-dimensional evaluation model. The spatiotemporal differences in policy strength among the 52 sample cities were further defined using K-means clustering and the Gini coefficient. Next, the driving effect of policy on the initial establishment of CDW recycling industry practices was examined by event history analysis (EHA). Finally, fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was used to analyze the sufficiency and necessity of policy for the initial establishment of CDW recycling practices. The results indicated that the establishment of a first CDW recycling plant is only slightly correlated with policy measures, whereas it is highly correlated with the pilot city and per capita GDP. Furthermore, application of policy is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for the establishment of a CDW recycling industry facility.

Crop Straw Resource Utilization as Pilot Policy in China: An Event History Analysis.

Massively generated crop straw can be utilized and valorized with great economic and environmental benefits. The Chinese government has adopted the pilot policy of crop straw resource utilization (CSRU) for disposing of the straw and practicing waste valorization. This work took 164 counties in the Hebei Province of China as a case study, mapped the temporal and spatial characteristics of the diffusion of the CSRU pilot policy in this province, and conducted an Event History Analysis by establishing a binary logistic regression model to identify the specific factors that determine the diffusion of the CSRU pilot policy in China from the aspects of resource availability, internal capacity, and external pressure. It indicates that: (1) the CSRU pilot policy diffuses rapidly in Hebei Province, although it is still at the early stage of this policy diffusion; (2) the model explains 95.2% of the variance in adopting a pilot county, indicating the effectiveness of this model; (3) straw resource density has a positive impact on CSRU pilot selections, and it can increase the possibility of one county being selected as a CSRU pilot by 23.2%, while population density has shown a negative effect; (3) policy support from local government is a major internal factor that determines CSRU performance, and it can increase the possibility of one county being selected as a CSRU pilot nearly tenfold; proximity pressure from neighboring counties has a positive effect on the diffusion of the CSRU policy, and it also greatly increases the possibility of being selected as a CSRU pilot.

Flexible transition timing in discrete-time multistate life tables using Markov chains with rewards.

Discrete-time multistate life tables are attractive because they are easier to understand and apply in comparison with their continuous-time counterparts. While such models are based on a discrete time grid, it is often useful to calculate derived magnitudes (e.g. state occupation times), under assumptions which posit that transitions take place at other times, such as mid-period. Unfortunately, currently available models allow very few choices about transition timing. We propose the use of Markov chains with rewards as a general way of incorporating information on the timing of transitions into the model. We illustrate the usefulness of rewards-based multistate life tables by estimating working life expectancies using different retirement transition timings. We also demonstrate that for the single-state case, the rewards approach matches traditional life-table methods exactly. Finally, we provide code to replicate all results from the paper plus R and Stata packages for general use of the method proposed.

Children of immigrants: Racial assortative mating and the transition to adulthood.

Few studies have followed immigrant-origin individuals from adolescence to adulthood or examined their spousal choices. Using longitudinal data from Add Health, we present a life-course model that examines the differences in racial assortative mating between children of immigrants and non-immigrants. The results reveal substantial variation in racial endogamy from generation to generation. Racial endogamy was highest in the third generation, but this is due entirely to high racial endogamy among whites. Out-marriage was most pronounced among first- and second-generation immigrants. Our life-course approach shows that the effects of race and generation on intermarriage were mediated by family background (e.g. language proficiency and residence) and educational attainment (at time of marriage), a finding largely indicative of processes of marital assimilation that unfold over time and generation. Evidence of acculturation and structural assimilation, however, could not fully account for the large, persistent, and uneven effects of race and generation on interracial marriage.

Socio-economic status and the rise of divorce in Sweden: The case of the 1880-1954 marriage cohorts in Västerbotten.

An established negative association between socio-economic status (SES) and divorce has applied to most Western nations since 1960. We expected a positive association between SES and divorce for low-divorce contexts historically because only individuals in higher social strata had the resources to overcome barriers to divorce. According to Goode's socio-economic growth theory, this relationship was reversed as industrialization and modernization began removing the economic and normative barriers. Making use of longitudinal data from parish registers, we investigated SES and other micro-level determinants of divorce among men and women in northern Sweden who married between 1880 and 1954. Results indicated a positive association between SES and divorce among those who married 1880-1919, with the middle class, not the elite, featuring the highest divorce risks. This association changed for couples who married in the 1920s, for whom divorce became more common and the working class faced similar divorce risks to the higher social strata.

Partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrants and descendants in the United Kingdom: A multilevel multistate event history approach.

We study the interrelationships between partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrant women and female descendants of immigrants using the UK Household Longitudinal Study. We propose a novel multistate event history approach to analyse the outcomes of unpartnered, cohabiting, and married women. We find that the partnership and fertility behaviours of immigrants and descendants from European and Western countries are similar to those of native women: many cohabit first and then have children and/or marry. Those from countries with conservative family behaviours (e.g. South Asian countries) marry first and then have children. Women from the Caribbean show the weakest link between partnership changes and fertility: some have births outside unions; some form a union and have children thereafter. Family patterns have remained relatively stable across migrant generations and birth cohorts, although marriage is being postponed in all groups. Our findings on immigrants support the socialization hypothesis, whereas those on descendants are in line with the minority subculture hypothesis.

An Empirical Study of Promotion Pressure among University Teachers in China Using Event History Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to understand the status of promotion pressure among university teachers in China. This study explored the promotion duration and influencing factors among teachers in different disciplines of the social sciences. METHODS: Using event history analysis, this study collected data regarding university teachers of China. The sample included 536 teachers who had been promoted from assistant to associate professor and 243 teachers promoted from associate to full professor. Our results revealed that the overall time required for promotion in the social sciences is relatively long. For those promoted from assistant to associate professor, the mean time for promotion was 14.155 years, with a median of 11 years, while for the transition from associate to full professor, the mean was 13.904 years with a median of nine years. Furthermore, in the survival function of the promotion duration, there is a stage pattern for both assistant to associate professor and associate to full professor. In addition, the Kaplan-Meier results showed that the mean promotion time in economics was the shortest. The Cox regression results indicated that males had a higher chance of promotion than females, and faculty members with doctoral degrees had a higher likelihood of promotion than those without. For those advancing from assistant to associate professor, the university of employment had significant positive effects on promotion. This paper provides empirical support for the current societal concerns regarding promotion pressure among university teachers.