Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra region.

Climate change leading to Climate extremes in the twenty-first century is more evident in megacities across the world, especially in West Africa. The Greater Accra region is one of the most populated regions in West Africa. As a result, the region has become more susceptible to climate extremes such as floods, heatwaves, and droughts. The study employed the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models in simulating climate extreme indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) over West Africa between 1979 and 2059 as exemplified by the Greater Accra region. The study observed a generally weak drought in the historical period and expected to intensify especially under SSP585 in Greater Accra. For instance, continuous dry days (CDD) reveal an increasing trend under the SSPs. Similarly, the overall projected trend of CDD over West Africa reveals an increase signifying a more frequent and longer drought in the future. The flood indices revealed a surge in the intensity and duration of extreme precipitation events under the SSPs in the region. For instance, R99pTOT and Rx5days are expected to significantly increase under the SSPs with intensification under the SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. A similar trend has been projected across West Africa, especially along the Guinean coast. The study foresees a gradual and intensifying rise in heatwave indices over the Greater Accra region. The warming and cooling indices reveal an increasing and decreasing trend respectively in the historical period as well as under the SSPs particularly within urban centers like Accra and Tema. Most West African countries are projected to observe more frequent warm days and nights with cold nights and days becoming less frequent. Expected effects of future climate extreme indices pose potential threats to the water, food, and energy systems as well as trigger recurrent floods and droughts over Greater Accra. The findings of the study are expected to inform climate policies and the nationally determined contribution of the Paris Agreement as well as address the sustainable development goal 11 (Sustainable cities) and 13 (Climate action) in West Africa.

Geographical Patterns in Mortality Impacts Due To Heatwaves of Different Characteristics in Spanish Cities.

The impact of heatwaves (HWs) on human health is a topic of growing interest due to the global magnification of these phenomena and their substantial socio-economic impacts. As for other countries of Southern Europe, Spain is a region highly affected by heat and its increase under climate change. This is observed in the mean values and the increasing incidence of extreme weather events and associated mortality. Despite the vast knowledge on this topic, it remains unclear whether specific types and characteristics of HW are particularly harmful to the population and whether this shows a regional interdependency. The present study provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between HW characteristics and mortality in 12 Spanish cities. We used separated time series analysis in each city applying a quasi-Poisson regression model and distributed lag linear and non-linear models. Results show an increase in the mortality risk under HW conditions in the cities with a lower HW frequency. However, this increase exhibits remarkable differences across the cities under study not showing any general pattern in the HW characteristics-mortality association. This relationship is shown to be complex and strongly dependent on the local properties of each city pointing out the crucial need to examine and understand on a local scale the HW characteristics and the HW-mortality relationship for an efficient design and implementation of prevention measures.

Estimated mortality attributable to the urban heat island during the record-breaking 2022 heatwave in London.

The United Kingdom experienced its most extreme heatwave to date during late July 2022, with maximum air temperatures exceeding 40 °C recorded for the first time in history on July 19th. High ambient temperatures have been statistically shown to lead to increased mortality. Higher nighttime temperatures that occur in more urbanised areas, called the urban heat island (UHI), may contribute to the mortality burden of heat. In this study, we applied health impact assessment methods with advanced urban climate modelling to estimate what contribution the UHI had on the mortality impact of the 10-25 July 2022 heatwave in Greater London. Estimated mortality due to heat and due to the UHI were compared with estimated mortality due to air pollution in the same period, based on monitored concentrations. We estimate that of the 1773 deaths in Greater London in this period 370 (95% confidence interval 328-410) could be attributed to heat. We estimate that 38% of these heat-related deaths could be attributed to the UHI. In the same period is estimate deaths attributable to PM2.5 were 20.6 (10.4-30.8) and to ozone were 52.3 (95% confidence interval 18.6-85.2). Despite not contributing to the record-breaking maximum air temperature observed during this period, the UHI may have contributed to the heatwave's mortality burden through raised nighttime temperature. While air pollutant concentrations were elevated during the period, deaths attributable to air pollution were relatively few compared to deaths attributable to heat.

Variations of compound warm, dry, wet, and cold climate extremes in India during 1951 to 2014.

The simultaneous occurrence of climate extremes significantly impacts ecosystems, increasing the vulnerability to physical risks. Despite extensive research on hot extremes and droughts globally, there remains a significant gap in comprehending the occurrence, magnitude, spatial extent, and associated risks of compound extremes, encompassing scenarios like warm/dry, cold/dry, warm/wet, and cold/wet. This study investigates various compound extreme scenarios by examining combinations of maximum temperature (Tx) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) using monthly data from 1951 to 2014 acquired from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for Indian landmass. From the results, the spatial extent of warm/dry events has increased at 1.8 % per decade, while cold/wet events decreased by 1.1 % over India. The warm/wet events have shown an increased trend of about 0.3 %, and cold/dry events at modest rise of 0.7 % per decade. Furthermore, compound warm/dry and cold/wet extremes over India exhibit extreme frequency and shorter return periods, posing greater risk. Conversely, compound cold/dry and warm/wet extremes occur less often, indicating longer return periods and lower risk. Across much of the country, the frequency of warm/dry, cold/dry, warm/wet, and cold/wet extremes ranges from 30 to 45, 15-30, 20-30, and 25-45 months, respectively. Notably, warm/dry conditions exhibit increased frequency in the recent period (1983-2014) with 31 years compared to the base period (1951-1982) which had approximately 24 years for a spatial extent exceeding 5 %. The findings of this study contribute to an enhanced understanding of the changes in compound climate extremes from a multivariate perspective.

Deep Learning Models for Health-Driven Forecasting of Indoor Temperatures in Heat Waves in Canada: An Exploratory Study Using Smart Thermostats.

In Canada, extreme heat occurrences present significant risks to public health, particularly for vulnerable groups like older individuals and those with pre-existing health conditions. Accurately predicting indoor temperatures during these events is crucial for informing public health strategies and mitigating the adverse impacts of extreme heat. While current systems rely on outdoor temperature data, incorporating real-time indoor temperature estimations can significantly enhance decision-making and strengthen overall health system responses. Sensor-based technologies, such as ecobee smart thermostats installed in homes, enable effortless collection of indoor temperature and humidity data. This study evaluates the efficacy of deep learning models in predicting indoor temperatures during heat waves using smart thermostat data, to enhance public health responses. Utilizing ecobee smart thermostats, we analyzed indoor temperature trends and developed forecasting models. Our findings indicate the potential of integrating IoT and deep learning into health warning systems, enabling proactive interventions, and improving sustainable health care practices in extreme heat scenarios. This approach highlights the role of digital health innovations in creating the resilient and sustainable healthcare systems against climate-related health adversities.

Marine heatwave-driven mass mortality and microbial community reorganisation in an ecologically important temperate sponge.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasing in frequency, duration and intensity, disrupting global marine ecosystems. While most reported impacts have been in tropical areas, New Zealand experienced its strongest and longest MHW in 2022, profoundly affecting marine sponges. Sponges are vital to rocky benthic marine communities, with their abundance influencing ecosystem functioning. This study examines the impact of this MHW on the photosynthetic sponge Cymbastella lamellata in Fiordland, New Zealand. We describe the extent, physiological responses, mortality, microbial community changes and ecological impact of this MHW on C. lamellata. The Fiordland MHW reached a maximum temperature of 4.4°C above average, lasting for 259 days. Bleaching occurred in >90% of the C. lamellata Fiordland population. The population size exceeded 66 million from 5 to 25 m, making this the largest bleaching event of its kind ever recorded. We identified the photosynthetic symbiont as a diatom, and bleached sponges had reduced photosynthetic efficiency. Post-MHW surveys in 2023 found that over 50% of sponges at sampling sites had died but that the remaining sponges had mostly recovered from earlier bleaching. Using a simulated MHW experiment, we found that temperature stress was a driver of necrosis rather than bleaching, despite necrosis only rarely being observed in the field (<2% of sponges). This suggests that bleaching may not be the cause of the mortality directly. We also identified a microbial community shift in surviving sponges, which we propose represents a microbial-mediated adaptive response to MHWs. We also found that C. lamellata are key contributors of dissolved organic carbon to the water column, with their loss likely impacting ecosystem function. We demonstrate the potential for MHWs to disrupt key marine phyla in temperate regions, highlighting how susceptible temperate sponges globally might be to MHWs.

Marine heatwaves alter competition between the cultured macroalga Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis and the harmful bloom alga Skeletonema costatum.

Seaweed cultivation can inhibit the occurrence of red tides. However, how seaweed aquaculture interactions with harmful algal blooms will be affected by the increasing occurrence and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) is unknown. In this study, we run both monoculture and coculture systems to investigate the effects of a simulated heatwave on the competition of the economically important macroalga Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis against the harmful bloom diatom Skeletonema costatum. Coculture with G. lemaneiformis led to a growth decrease in S. costatum. Growth and photosynthetic activity (Fv/Fm) of G. lemaneiformis was greatly reduced by the heatwave treatment, and did not recover even after one week. Growth and photosynthetic activity of S. costatum was also reduced by the heatwave in coculture, but returned to normal during the recovery period. S. costatum also responded to the stressful environment by forming aggregates. Metabolomic analysis suggests that the negative effects on S. costatum were related to an allelochemical release from G. lemaneiformis. These findings show that MHWs may enhance the competitive advantages of S. costatum against G. lemaneiformis, leading to more severe harmful algal blooms in future extreme weather scenarios.

Timing-dependent effects of elevated temperature on reproductive traits in the European corn borer moth.

Elevated temperature often has life stage-specific effects on ectotherms because thermal tolerance varies throughout ontogeny. Impacts of elevated temperature may extend beyond the exposed life stage, if developmental plasticity causes early exposure to carry over, or if exposure at multiple life stages cumulatively produces effects. Reproductive traits may be sensitive to different thermal environments experienced during development, but such effects have not been comprehensively measured in Lepidoptera. In this study, we investigate how elevated temperature at different life stages alters reproduction in the European corn borer moth, Ostrinia nubilalis. We tested effects of exposure to elevated temperature (28°C) separately or additively during larval, pupal, and adult life stages compared to control temperatures (23°C). We found that exposure to elevated pupal and adult temperature decreased the number of egg clusters produced, but exposure limited to a single stage did not significantly impact reproductive output. Furthermore, elevated temperature during the pupal stage led to a faster transition to the adult stage and elevated larval temperature altered synchrony of adult eclosion, either by itself or combined with pupal temperature exposure. These results suggest that exposure to elevated temperature during development alters reproduction in corn borers in multiple ways, including through carry-over and additive effects. Additive effects of temperature across life stages are thought to be less common than stage-specific or carry-over effects, but our results suggest thermal environments experienced at all life stages need to be considered when predicting reproductive responses of insects to heatwaves.

Exploring the Nexus of Climate Change and Substance Abuse: A Scoping Review.

INTRODUCTION: The increase in average air temperature and multiple extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts, pose significant health risks to humans. This scoping review aims to examine the current state of the existing literature concerning the potential relationship between substance abuse and climate change, along with the aspects it encompasses. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The review followed PRISMA guidelines for methodological rigor, aiming to identify studies on drug abuse. Searches were conducted across the primary databases using specific search strings. Quality assessment involved evaluating the research question's clarity, search strategy transparency, consistency in applying the inclusion/exclusion criteria, and reliability of data extraction. RESULTS: Most studies were conducted in the USA. They included observational and retrospective quantitative studies, as well as qualitative and prospective observational ones. Research examined the correlation between extreme weather and some substance abuse. All studies analyzed the adverse effects of climate change, especially heatwaves, on both physiological and pathological levels. CONCLUSIONS: The scoping review notes the scarcity of studies about the correlation between substance abuse and climate change, and emphasizes the threats faced by individuals with substance abuse and mental health disorders due to climate change.

Metabolic dysfunctions in pearl oysters following recurrent marine heatwaves.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have become more frequent, intense and extreme in oceanic systems in the past decade, resulting in mass mortality events of marine invertebrates and devastating coastal marine ecosystems. While metabolic homeostasis is a fundamental requirement in stress tolerance, little is known about its role under intensifying MHWs conditions. Here, we investigated impacts of MHWs on the metabolism in pearl oysters (Pinctada maxima) - an ecologically and economically significant bivalve species in tropical ecosystems. Activities of digestive enzymes (gastric proteases, lipases, and amylases) did not significantly respond to various scenario of recurrent MHWs varying from 24 °C to 28 °C (moderate) and 32 °C (severe). The metabolomics analysis revealed nine and five key metabolism pathways under both MHWs scenarios. Specifically, pathways associated with energy metabolism were impaired by moderate MHWs, manifesting in downregulation of differential metabolite (The nicotinic acid and N-acetyl-glutamic acid). The content of CDP-ethanolamine was significantly decrease, and the perturbations of oxidative stress caused by the decreased of content of D-glutamine. Metabolites related to a suite of body functions (e.g., the lipid metabolism, biomineralization, and antioxidant defenses) showed significantly negative responses by severe MHWs. These findings reveal the metabolic impairments of marine bivalves when subjected to MHWs varying in intensity and frequency, implying cascading consequences which deserve further investigation.

The impact of marine heatwaves on surface phytoplankton chlorophyll-a in the South China Sea.

According to previous studies, marine heatwaves (MHWs) significantly suppress the phytoplankton chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl a) in tropical oceans. However, pre-MHW Chl a has rarely been considered as a reference value. In this study, the Chl a for the periods preceding and during MHWs events was used to explore the impact of MHWs on Chl a from 1998 to 2022 in the South China Sea (SCS). The Chl a response to MHWs in different regions was further discussed based on the Chl a variation characteristics. The results showed that the Chl a response to MHWs exhibited regional variability. Interestingly, there was a large proportion of positive Chl a anomalies (∼0.55) in the estuary and offshore regions during MHWs; however, Chl a anomalies were mostly negative in the upwelling regions. These different response patterns are related to background conditions, including nutrient concentrations, wind-driven dynamics, and light availability. In upwelling regions, negative Chl a anomalies were primarily due to the weakening of wind speeds, Ekman pumping velocities, and upwelling intensities. In estuarine regions, positive Chl a anomalies were caused by enhanced light availability, whereas in offshore regions, there were attributed to the increased atmospheric wet deposition. These results have improved our understanding of the impact of MHWs on marine ecosystems.

Spatial-temporal evolution and intrinsic drivers of compound drought and heatwave events in Mainland China.

Given the devastating effects and potential rising trends of compound drought and heatwave (CDH) events under the specter of global warming, this study embarks on a comprehensive examination of their spatial and temporal evolution, as well as the intrinsic drivers. This study identified CDH events based on the non-stationary standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (NSPEI) and the relative threshold method. The study also quantified the spatial and temporal patterns of frequency, intensity, and duration of CDH events across different climatic sub-regions, quantifying the contribution of drought-heatwave interdependence to these events and assessing the impact of single extreme climate events on their proliferation. The study yielded several key findings: 1) The frequency, intensity, and duration of CDH events exhibited high spatial heterogeneity and a significant increasing trend over the study period. 2) A notable positive interdependence was observed between the occurrences of droughts and heatwaves, significantly contributing to the rise in CDH events. 3) Droughts exacerbated the intensity and duration of CDH events compared to heatwaves under non-drought conditions (NDCH). 4) The spatial distribution characteristics and the change indices of heatwaves and CDH events were strikingly similar, indicating a consistent evolution. Notably, the increase in heatwaves had a more pronounced influence on the escalation of CDH events compared to droughts. 5) The West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and the South Asian High (SAH) have had significant impacts on CDH events in mainland China. This research provides vital insights into the dynamics of CDH events, emphasizing their growing frequency and severity in the context of climate change. It offers a crucial perspective for policymakers and disaster management authorities in developing targeted strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation.

Combined effects of heat waves and pesticide pollution on zooplankton communities: Does the timing of stressor matter?

Most studies assessing the combined effects of chemical and non-chemical stressors on aquatic ecosystems have been based on synchronous stressor applications. However, asynchronous exposure scenarios may be more common in nature, particularly for pulsed stressors such as heatwaves and pesticide concentration peaks. In this study, we investigated the single and combined effects of the insecticide chlorpyrifos (CPF) and a heatwave (HW) on a zooplankton community representative of a Mediterranean coastal wetland using synchronous (CPF+HW) and asynchronous (HW→CPF and CPF→HW) exposure scenarios. CPF was applied at a concentration of 0.8 µg/L (single pulse), and the HW was simulated by a temperature increase of 8°C above the control temperature (20°C) for 7 days in freshwater microcosms. The interaction between stressors in synchrony resulted in synergistic effects at the population level (Daphnia magna) and additive at the community level. The partial reduction of sensitive species resulted in an abundance increase of competing species that were more tolerant to the evaluated stressors (e.g. Moina sp.). The asynchronous exposure scenarios resulted in a similar abundance decline of sensitive populations as compared to the synchronous one; however, the timing of stressor resulted in different responses in the long term. In the HW→CPF treatment, the D. magna population recovered at least one month faster than in the CPF+HW treatment, probably due to survival selection and cross-tolerance mechanisms. In the CPF→HW treatment, the effects lasted longer than in the CPF+HW, and the population did not recover within the experimental period, most likely due to the energetic costs of detoxification and effects on internal damage recovery. The different timing and magnitude of indirect effects among the tested asynchronous scenarios resulted in more severe effects on the structure of the zooplankton community in the CPF→HW treatment. Our study highlights the relevance of considering the order of stressors to predict the long-term effects of chemicals and heatwaves both at the population and community levels.

Validity and reproducibility of the CALERA Research Sensor to estimate core temperature at different intensities of a cycling exercise in the heat.

Recent heatwaves have highlighted the importance of accurate and continuous core temperature (TCORE) monitoring in sports settings. For example, accentuated rises in TCORE caused by physical exercises under environmental heat stress increase the risk of heat illnesses. Thus, using valid and reproducible devices is essential to ensure safe sports practice. In this study, we assessed the validity and reproducibility of the Calera Research Sensor (CRS) in estimating the TCORE of male and female participants during cycling exercise in a hot environment. Seven male (age: 36.2 ± 10.1 years) and eight female cyclists (age: 30.1 ± 5.0 years) underwent two identical cycling trials in a dry-bulb temperature of 32 °C and relative humidity of 60%. The protocol consisted of an initial 10-min rest followed by a 60-min exercise comprising 10 min at 20%, 25 min at 55%, and 25 min at 75% of maximal aerobic power, and an additional 25 min of post-exercise recovery. TCORE was recorded simultaneously every minute using a gastrointestinal capsule (TGi) and the CRS (TSENSOR). Bland-Altman analysis was performed to calculate bias, upper (LCS) and lower (LCI) concordance limits, and the 95% confidence interval (95%CI). The maximum acceptable difference between the two devices was predetermined at ±0.4 °C. A mixed linear model was used to assess the paired differences between the two measurement systems, considering the participants, trials, and environmental conditions as random effects and the cycling stages as fixed effects. An intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.98 was recorded when analyzing data from the entire experiment. A non-significant bias value of 0.01 °C, LCS of 0.38 °C, LCI of -0.35 °C, and CI95% of ±0.36 °C were found. When analyzing data according to the participants' sex, CRS reproducibility was high in both sexes: ICC values of 0.98 and 0.99 were reported for males and females, respectively. CI95% was 0.35 °C in experiments with males and 0.37 °C with females, thereby falling within the acceptable margin of difference. Therefore, CRS was considered valid (compared to TGi) and reproducible in estimating TCORE in both sexes at various intensities of cycling exercise in the heat.

Heatwave exacerbates air pollution in China through intertwined climate-energy-environment interactions.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, raising concerns about their detrimental effects on air quality. However, a role for heatwave-human-environment interactions in air pollution exacerbation has not been established. In the summer of 2022, record-breaking heatwaves struck China and Europe. In this study, we use integrated observational data and machine learning to elucidate the formation mechanism underlying one of the most severe ozone pollution seasons on record in central eastern China, an area that encompasses approximately half of China's total population and sown land. Our findings reveal that the worsened ozone and nitrogen dioxide pollution resulted from a mismatch between energy demand and supply, which was driven by both heatwaves and energy policy-related factors. The observed adverse heatwave-energy-environment feedback loop highlights the need for the diversification of clean energy sources, more resilient energy structures and power policies, and further emission control to confront the escalating climate challenge in the future.

Exploring the contribution of inter-individual factors to the development of physiological heat strain in older adults exposed to simulated indoor overheating.

Older adults are at elevated risk of heat-related mortality due to age-associated declines in thermoregulatory and cardiovascular function. However, the inter-individual factors that exacerbate physiological heat strain during heat exposure remain unclear, making it challenging to identify more heat-vulnerable subgroups. We therefore explored factors contributing to inter-individual variability in physiological responses of older adults exposed to simulated hot weather. Thirty-seven older adults (61-80 years, 16 females) rested for 8 h in 31 and 36 °C (45% relative humidity). Core (rectal) temperature, heart rate (HR), HR variability, mean arterial pressure (MAP), and cardiac autonomic responses to standing were measured at baseline and end-exposure. Bootstrapped least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to evaluate whether variation in these responses was related to type 2 diabetes (T2D, n = 10), hypertension (n = 18), age, sex, body morphology, habitual physical activity levels, and/or heat-acclimatization. T2D was identified as a predictor of end-exposure HR (with vs. without: 13 beats/min (bootstrap 95% confidence interval: 6, 23)), seated MAP (-7 mmHg (-18, 1)), and the systolic pressure response to standing (20 mmHg (4, 36)). HR was also influenced by sex (female vs. male: 8 beats/min (1, 16)). No other predictors were identified. The inter-individual factors explored did not meaningfully contribute to the variation in body temperature responses in older adults exposed to simulated indoor overheating. By contrast, cardiovascular responses were exacerbated in females and individuals with T2D. These findings improve understanding of how inter-individual differences contribute to heat-induced physiological strain in older persons.

Association between heatwaves and risk and economic burden of injury related hospitalizations in China.

BACKGROUND: Public health is greatly affected by heatwaves, especially as a result of climate change. It is unclear whether heatwaves affect injury hospitalization, especially as developing countries facing the impact of climate change. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of heatwaves on injury-related hospitalization and the economic burden. METHODS: The daily hospitalizations and meteorological data from 2014 to 2019 were collected from 23 study sites in 11 meteorological geographic zones in China. We conducted a two-stage time series analysis based on a time-stratified case-crossover design, combined with DLNM to assess the association between heatwaves and daily injury hospitalization, and to further assess the regional and national economic losses resulting from hospitalization by calculating excess hospitalization costs (direct economic losses) and labor losses (indirect economic losses). To determine the vulnerable groups and areas, we also carried out stratified analyses by age, sex, and region. RESULTS: We found that 6.542% (95%CI: 3.939%, 9.008 %) of injury hospitalization were attributable to heatwaves during warm season (May to September) from 2014 to 2019. Approximately 361,447 injury hospitalizations were attributed to heatwaves each year in China, leading to an excess economic loss of 5.173 (95%CI: 3.104, 7.196) billion CNY, of which 3.114 (95%CI: 1.454, 4.720) billion CNY for males and 4.785 (95%CI: 3.203, 6.321) billion CNY for people aged 15-64 years. The attributable fraction (AF) of injury hospitalizations due to heatwaves was the highest in the plateau mountain climate zone, followed by the subtropical monsoon climate zone and the temperate monsoon climate zone. CONCLUSIONS: Heatwaves significantly increase the disease and economic burden of injury hospitalizations, and vary across populations and regions. Our findings implicate the necessity for targeted measures, including raising public awareness, improving healthcare infrastructure, and developing climate resilience policies, to reduce the threat of heatwaves to vulnerable populations and the associated disease and economic burden.

Heatwave frequency and disability status: Thermal inequities in the U.S. South.

BACKGROUND: Although extreme heat has been found to be disproportionately distributed with respect to socially disadvantaged and marginalized groups, persons with disabilities have received limited attention in previous research on heat exposure disparities. OBJECTIVE: This gap is addressed by analyzing the relationship between local heatwave frequency and the percentages of people with a disability and specific disability types in the U.S. South-a region characterized by extremely high summer temperatures and greater disability prevalence. METHODS: Census tract level values of heatwave annualized frequency from the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index are linked to relevant disability variables from the latest American Community Survey five-year estimates. Statistical analyses are based on bivariate correlations and multivariable generalized estimating equations that consider spatial clustering of tracts based on climate zone and county. RESULTS: The overall percentage of civilian noninstitutionalized persons with a disability and more than one disability are significantly greater (p < 0.001) in census tracts with higher heatwave frequency, after controlling for clustering, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, older age, population density, and metropolitan status. Heatwave frequency is also positively and significantly associated (p < 0.01) with the percentages of people with hearing, vision, cognitive, ambulatory, self-care, and independent living difficulties. CONCLUSIONS: These heat-related distributive injustices in the U.S. South demonstrate an urgent need to: (1) include disability status in future research on social disparities in heatwave exposure; (2) conduct more detailed investigations in other regions, states, and nations; and (3) develop disability-inclusive policies and interventions that provide equitable protection during extreme weather events.

Hidden underlying mechanisms for changes in mesozooplankton communities: Transport and eddy driven changes.

Mesozooplankton communities have been used extensively as reliable climate change indicators, mainly because of their rapid growth and sensitivity to environmental changes. This study explored the modifications in the taxonomic composition of the mesozooplankton community and the associated physical changes of transport-driven, eddy-driven, and marine heatwaves in the summers of the last 14 years (2009-2022) within the mixed layer of the Ulleung Basin in the East Sea/Japan Sea, where surface waters have rapidly warmed in recent decades. A slight increase was observed in the abundance of mesozooplankton from 2009 (3709 inds.m-3) to 2022 (4231 inds.m-3), with two notable peaks in 2015 (11,377 inds.m-3) and 2020 (11,184 inds.m-3), which was mainly attributed to the prevalence of Noctiluca scintillans. The first peak in 2015 showed thaliaceans to be the next dominant taxa, in which the southward direction of meandering in East Korea Warm Current (EKWC), presence of the Ulleung warm eddy, lower volume of the Western Channel (V-west) of the Korea Strait, and marine heatwaves (MHWs) did not occur. In contrast to the first peak, the second peak in 2020 showed Pyrocystis pseudonoctiluca to be the next dominant species, which may have been transported and advected by the strong V-west and eastward direction of the EKWC and the occurrence of MHWs that allowed the persistence of the subtropical species P. pseudonoctiluca. Overall, the significant increases in the second dominant mesozooplankton taxa appeared to be affected by physical changes, including transport or eddy-driven changes, along with the occurrence of strong V-west, the direction of the EKWC, and the occurrence of MHWs, which may synergistically influence the increase in the second dominant taxa during summer. This study highlights the complex interplay between notable variations in mesozooplankton communities and environmental factors, highlighting the potential consequences of different physical changes (transport-driven and eddy-driven) in this regional ocean.

Food web trophic control modulates tropical Atlantic reef ecosystems response to marine heat wave intensity and duration.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are episodes of anomalous warming in the ocean that can last from a few days to years. MHWs have different characteristics in terms of intensity, duration and frequency and generate thermal stress in marine ecosystems. In reef ecosystems, they are one of the main causes of the decreased presence and abundance of corals, invertebrates and fish. The deleterious capacity of thermal stress often depends on biotic factors, such as the trophic control of predators on prey. Despite the evidence of thermal stress and biotic factors affecting individual species, the combined effects of both stressors on entire reef ecosystems are much less studied. Here, using a food web modelling approach, we estimated the rate of change in species' biomass due to different MHW characteristics. Specifically, we modelled the mechanistic link between species' consumption rate and seawater temperature (thermal stressor), simulating species' biomass dynamics for different MHW characteristics under different trophic control assumptions (top-down, mixed trophic control and bottom-up). We find that total reef ecosystem biomass declined by 10% ± 5% under MHWs with severe intensity and a top-down control assumption. The bottom-up control assumption moderates the total ecosystem biomass reduction by 5% ± 5%. Irrespective of the MHW characteristics and the trophic control assumption, the most substantial biomass changes occur among top, mesopredators and corals (5% to 20% ± 10%). We show that reef ecosystems where predators exert top-down control on prey are prone to suffer species abundance declines under strong MHW events. We identify food web trophic control as a crucial driver that modulates the impacts of MHWs. Overall, our results provide a unified understanding of the interplay between abiotic stressors and biotic factors in reef ecosystems under extreme thermal events, offering insights into present baselines and future ecological states for reef ecosystems.