Solute depletion and reduced hydrological connectivity in subarctic patterned peatlands disturbed by mine dewatering.

Patterned bog and fen peatlands of the Hudson Bay Lowlands, which form one of the largest continuous peatland complexes in the world, are globally significant stores of carbon and important water conveyance and storage features on the landscape. However, expansion of resource exploration and extraction combined with warmer temperatures associated with climate change may result in reduced water availability to these peatland complexes, potentially disrupting peatland hydrological connectivity and hydrogeochemical cycling. A case study on the effects of reduced water availability on peatland hydrological and geochemical function was conducted near the De Beers Victor Diamond Mine, located 90 km west of Attawapiskat. Active dewatering occurred here over a 12-year period (2007-2019) during which a 1.5 km transect was monitored within the mine impacted radius. Hydrological (streamflow and groundwater levels) and chemical (porewater and surface water samples) parameters were collected at the impacted transect and two nearby unimpacted reference sites. Results demonstrated that impacted peatlands had depleted water storage and spent an average of 50 % less time hydrologically connected than unimpacted peatlands. By the end of the study period, increasingly depleted water storage within the dewatering radius resulted in disproportionately lower flowrates in two tributaries downgradient of the mine-impacted peatlands when compared with the reference sites. Moreover, diminished water storage allowed solute-depleted precipitation to reach greater depths within the peat profile, while stronger downwards gradients suppressed upwards flow into fens, limiting the amount of solute-enriched water reaching the surface. The recovery of fen solute concentrations will be a prolonged process (i.e., decades to centuries) due to the slow rate of upwards diffusion, which may result in the transition of these systems towards ombrotrophic bogs. Further studies should focus on the susceptibility of these impacted systems to further reductions in water availability due to climate change.

Baseline levels and characterization of hydrocarbons in surface marine sediments along the transportation corridor in Hudson Bay: A multivariate analysis of n-alkanes, PAHs and biomarkers.

Hudson Bay is a small arctic inland shelf sea which receives large amounts of freshwater from riverine discharges, with marine flow from the north and the Atlantic. A warming climate has resulted in an expanded open water season which will result in an increase in shipping of fuel oil and petroleum to communities and mines on the western shore, increasing the risk of hydrocarbon releases. To evaluate the status of hydrocarbons, surface sediments were collected at 34 locations in the transportation route and offshore and analysed for several types of hydrocarbons. Total hydrocarbons varied by over 25 times between sites, reaching a maximum of 1116 µg/g OC (organic carbon basis) in Hudson Strait due to low molecular weight n-alkanes from marine primary production. The gross mean for all sites was 344 µg/g OC (GSD = 173-682), roughly equivalent to other remote sites in the Canadian Arctic with no known local hydrocarbon source. n-alkanes accounted for >90 % of residues. Diagnostic ratios (e.g., Carbon Preference Index (CPI), Odd-Even Predominance (OEP)) indicated mixed sources of n-alkanes, likely due to the input from vascular plants and ombrotrophic peat in northern and western watersheds, and primary production within the Bay. The elevated proportion of high molecular weight n-alkanes at deep water sites is consistent with lotic particulate organic matter deposited in the nearshore environment and redeposited offshore. Æ©36PAHs were a small fraction (1.9 %) of hydrocarbons, with a gross mean of 5.68 µg/g OC (GSD = 3.30-9.79). PCA separated deep water sediments from nearshore and community samples due to 4 alkylated naphthalenes which usually indicate a petrogenic source but probably indicates a natural source due to the lack of other petrogenic markers. Priority PAHs (i.e., Æ©16PAH) varied from 31.5 % to 56.6 % of the Æ©36PAH residues. The concentrations of individual PAHs were well below the Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines recommended by the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment.

Structural shifts in sea ice prokaryotic communities across a salinity gradient in the subarctic.

Current knowledge of the processes that shape prokaryotic community assembly in sea ice across polar ecosystems is scarce. Here, we coupled culture-dependent (bacterial isolation on R2A medium) and culture-independent (high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing) approaches to provide the first comprehensive assessment of prokaryotic communities in the late winter ice and its underlying water along a natural salinity gradient in coastal Hudson Bay, an iconic cryo-environment that marks the ecological transition between Canadian Subarctic and Arctic biomes. We found that prokaryotic community assembly processes in the ice were less selective at low salinity since typical freshwater taxa such as Frankiales, Burkholderiales, and Chitinophagales dominated both the ice and its underlying water. In contrast, there were sharp shifts in community structure between the ice and underlying water samples at sites with higher salinity, with the orders Alteromonadales and Flavobacteriales dominating the ice, while the abovementioned freshwater taxa dominated the underlying water communities. Moreover, primary producers including Cyanobium (Cyanobacteria, Synechococcales) may play a role in shaping the ice communities and were accompanied by known Planctomycetes and Verrucomicrobiae taxa. Culture-dependent analyses showed that the ice contained pigment-producing psychrotolerant or psychrophilic bacteria from the phyla Proteobacteria, Actinobacteriota, and Bacteroidota, likely favored by the combination of low temperatures and the seasonal increase in sunlight. Our findings suggest that salinity, photosynthesis and dissolved organic matter are the main drivers of prokaryotic community structure in the late winter ice of coastal Hudson Bay, the ecosystem with the fastest sea ice loss rate in the Canadian North.

Temporal change and the influence of climate and weather factors on mercury concentrations in Hudson Bay polar bears, caribou, and seabird eggs.

Temporal trends of mercury in Arctic wildlife are inconsistent within and between species and are often insignificant, which limits data interpretation. Recent multivariate analyses have shown that weather and climate factors (e.g. temperatures, sea ice conditions) are related to total Hg (THg) concentrations in wildlife tissues, though relatively few studies have explored these relationships. The present study compared time series of THg concentrations in liver of polar bear (Ursus maritimus, 2007/08-2015/16), eggs of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia, 1993-2015) and kidney of caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus, 2006-2015) from the Hudson Bay region of Canada and statistically modelled THg over time with available climate and weather data. Significant temporal trends of THg concentrations were not detected in any species. However, in multivariate models that included time-lagged sea ice freeze up dates, THg concentrations increased 4.4% yr-1 in Qamanirjuaq caribou. Sea ice conditions were also related to THg levels in polar bear liver but not those in eggs of murres, though year was not a signifcant factor. Greater precipitation levels one to two years prior to sampling were associated with greater THg concentrations in polar bears and caribou, likely due to greater deposition, flooding and discharge from nearby wetlands and rivers. Time-lagged Arctic and/or North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) indices also generated significant, inverse models for all three species, agreeing with relationships in other time series of similar length. The magnitude and direction of many relationships were affected by season, duration of time-lags, and the length of the time series. Our findings support recent observations suggesting that temporal studies monitoring Hg in Arctic wildlife should consider including key climatic or weather factors to help identify consistent variables of influence and to improve temporal analyses of THg time series.

The curious, and incorrect, case of "St. Martin's Falls", a type locality for many insect species described by Francis Walker.

The curious case of "St. Martin's Falls", Hudson's Bay, Canada, as referred to by Francis Walker and other authors as type locality for many insect species, is resolved for being Martin's Falls and the history of that misleading name is explained.

Influence of sea ice dynamics on population energetics of Western Hudson Bay polar bears.

The Arctic marine ecosystem has experienced extensive changes in sea ice dynamics, with significant effects on ice-dependent species such as polar bears (Ursus maritimus). We used annual estimates of the numbers of bears onshore in the core summering area, age/sex structure and body condition data to estimate population energy density and storage energy in Western Hudson Bay polar bears from 1985 to 2018. We examined intra-population variation in energetic patterns, temporal energetic trends and the relationship between population energetics and sea ice conditions. Energy metrics for most demographic classes declined over time in relation to earlier sea ice breakup, most significantly for solitary adult females and subadult males, suggesting their greater vulnerability to nutritional stress than other age/sex classes. Temporal declines in population energy metrics were related to earlier breakup and longer lagged open-water periods, suggesting multi-year effects of sea ice decline. The length of the open-water period ranged from 102 to 166 days and increased significantly by 9.9 days/decade over the study period. Total population energy density and storage energy were significantly lower when sea ice breakup occurred earlier and the lagged open-water period was longer. At the earliest breakup and a lagged open-water period of 180 days, population energy density was predicted to be 33% lower than our minimum estimated energy density and population storage energy was predicted to be 40% lower than the minimum estimated storage energy. Consequently, over the study, the total population energy density declined by 53% (mean: 3668 ± 386 MJ kg-1/decade) and total population storage energy declined by 56% (mean: 435900 ± 46770 MJ/decade). This study provides insights into ecological mechanisms linking population responses to sea ice decline and highlights the significance of maintaining long-term research programs.

Concentrations of legacy and new contaminants are related to metabolite profiles in Hudson Bay polar bears.

There are very few metabolomics assessments based on field accumulated, uncontrolled contaminant exposures in wildlife, particularly in the Arctic. In the present study, targeted metabolomics and contaminant data were analyzed together to assess potential influences of contaminant exposure on the hepatic metabolome of male polar bears (n = 29) from the southern and western Hudson Bay (SHB and WHB respectively), Canada. The 29 metabolites identified as important in the differentiation of the two subpopulations after partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) included phosphatidylcholines (PCs), acylcarnitines (ACs; involved in ß-oxidation of fatty acids), and the fatty acid (FA) arachidonic acid (ARA). Perfluorinated alkyl substances, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p'-DDE) and some highly chlorinated ortho-polychlorinated biphenyl congeners were greater in the SHB bears and were consistently inversely correlated with discriminating ACs and PCs between the subpopulations. The concentrations of discriminatory, legacy organochlorine pesticides along with one tetrachlorobiphenyl were greater in the WHB and were directly correlated with the VIP-identified ACs and PCs. ARA, glycerophospholipid and several amino acid metabolic pathways were identified as different between subpopulations and/or were impacted. ARA is an important, conditionally essential, dietary n-6 FA and is also part of the inflammation response, and elevated concentrations in the SHB could be related to differences in chronic contaminant exposure and/or differences in diet and/or season, among a number of possible explanations. Dietary tracers (stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen) were correlated with some discriminatory metabolites, supporting the hypothesis that dietary variation was also an important factor in the differentiation of the subpopulations. The results suggest linkages between contaminant exposure in Hudson Bay polar bears and elements of the hepatic metabolome, particularly those related to lipid metabolism.

Legacy and new halogenated persistent organic pollutants in polar bears from a contamination hotspot in the Arctic, Hudson Bay Canada.

A large and complex suite of 295 legacy and new halogenated persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were investigated in fat or liver tissue samples of polar bears collected in 2013-2014 from Southern (SHB) and Western (WHB) subpopulations of the Canadian Arctic contaminants hotspot of Hudson Bay. A total of 210 POPs were detected and/or quantifiable with some frequency in all fat or liver samples. POP profile and concentration differences were investigated both within (e.g. age and sex) and between the two subpopulations. Two time-point comparisons were made relative to POPs reported for Hudson Bay polar bears harvested in 2007-2008. ΣPolychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations at both time points were the most concentrated of the POP groups, and were spatially uniform with no detectable influence of sex or age, as were concentrations of the dominant congener CB153. ΣChlordanes (ΣCHLs, 74-79% oxychlordane) and the Σperfluoroalkyl substances (ΣPFASs, ≈60% perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS)) had the second greatest POP group concentrations in SHB and WHB respectively, with ΣPFASs and ΣCHLs being significantly influenced by age and/or sex. ΣCHLs were spatially uniform but ΣPFASs were greater in the SHB bears, as were e.g. some flame retardants, due to e.g. local contamination and/or changes in bear behavior and diet. Endosulfans and hexabromocyclododecane were detectable in samples from 2007-2008 but not from 2013-2014, which is consistent with their global POP regulations. ΣPolychlorinated naphthalenes (ΣPCNs) were consistently detected at relatively high concentrations compared to other arctic wildlife, however these concentrations were low relative to legacy POPs. ΣShort-chain chlorinated paraffins (ΣSCCPs) were major contributors to the overall POPs burden with concentrations comparable to other legacy POPs, though there was no significant difference between or within subpopulations for PCNs or SCCPs. Except for octachlorostyrene, POPs concentrations were generally lower in female and male bears from SHB in 2013-2014 relative to 2007-2008, however those of WHB males were greater over the same timeframe for almost all POPs.

Demographic, ecological, and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability.

To assess whether demographic declines of Arctic species at the southern limit of their range will be gradual or punctuated, we compared large-scale environmental patterns including sea ice dynamics to ringed seal (Pusa hispida) reproduction, body condition, recruitment, and stress in Hudson Bay from 2003 to 2013. Aerial surveys suggested a gradual decline in seal density from 1995 to 2013, with the lowest density occurring in 2013. Body condition decreased and stress (cortisol) increased over time in relation to longer open water periods. The 2010 open water period in Hudson Bay coincided with extremes in large-scale atmospheric patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation) resulting in the earliest spring breakup and the latest ice formation on record. The warming event was coincident with high stress level, low ovulation rate, low pregnancy rate, few pups in the Inuit harvest, and observations of sick seals. Results provide evidence of changes in the condition of Arctic marine mammals in relation to climate mediated sea ice dynamics. We conclude that although negative demographic responses of Hudson Bay seals are occurring gradually with diminishing sea ice, a recent episodic environmental event played a significant role in a punctuated population decline.

Increased variance in temperature and lag effects alter phenological responses to rapid warming in a subarctic plant community.

Summer temperature on the Cape Churchill Peninsula (Manitoba, Canada) has increased rapidly over the past 75 years, and flowering phenology of the plant community is advanced in years with warmer temperatures (higher cumulative growing degree days). Despite this, there has been no overall shift in flowering phenology over this period. However, climate change has also resulted in increased interannual variation in temperature; if relationships between phenology and temperature are not linear, an increase in temperature variance may interact with an increase in the mean to alter how community phenology changes over time. In our system, the relationship between phenology and temperature was log-linear, resulting in a steeper slope at the cold end of the temperature spectrum than at the warm end. Because below-average temperatures had a greater impact on phenology than above-average temperatures, the long-term advance in phenology was reduced. In addition, flowering phenology in a given year was delayed if summer temperatures were high the previous year or 2 years earlier (lag effects), further reducing the expected advance over time. Phenology of early-flowering plants was negatively affected only by temperatures in the previous year, and that of late-flowering plants primarily by temperatures 2 years earlier. Subarctic plants develop leaf primordia one or more years prior to flowering (preformation); these results suggest that temperature affects the development of flower primordia during this preformation period. Together, increased variance in temperature and lag effects interacted with a changing mean to reduce the expected phenological advance by 94%, a magnitude large enough to account for our inability to detect a significant advance over time. We conclude that changes in temperature variability and lag effects can alter trends in plant responses to a warming climate and that predictions for changes in plant phenology under future warming scenarios should incorporate such effects.

Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay.

Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture-recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 993-1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI = 653-984) in 2011. In the last 10 yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001-2010 = 1.02, 95% BCI = 0.98-1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI = 1.00-1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI = 0.92-1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations.

Mass Loss Rates of Fasting Polar Bears.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have adapted to an annual cyclic regime of feeding and fasting, which is extreme in seasonal sea ice regions of the Arctic. As a consequence of climate change, sea ice breakup has become earlier and the duration of the open-water period through which polar bears must rely on fat reserves has increased. To date, there is limited empirical data with which to evaluate the potential energetic capacity of polar bears to withstand longer fasts. We measured the incoming and outgoing mass of inactive polar bears (n = 142) that were temporarily detained by Manitoba Conservation and Water Stewardship during the open-water period near the town of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, in 2009-2014. Polar bears were given access to water but not food and held for a median length of 17 d. Median mass loss rates were 1.0 kg/d, while median mass-specific loss rates were 0.5%/d, similar to other species with high adiposity and prolonged fasting capacities. Mass loss by unfed captive adult males was identical to that lost by free-ranging individuals, suggesting that terrestrial feeding contributes little to offset mass loss. The inferred metabolic rate was comparable to a basal mammalian rate, suggesting that while on land, polar bears can maintain a depressed metabolic rate to conserve energy. Finally, we estimated time to starvation for subadults and adult males for the on-land period. Results suggest that at 180 d of fasting, 56%-63% of subadults and 18%-24% of adult males in this study would die of starvation. Results corroborate previous assessments on the limits of polar bear capacity to withstand lengthening ice-free seasons and emphasize the greater sensitivity of subadults to changes in sea ice phenology.

Distribution and diversity of diatom assemblages in surficial sediments of shallow lakes in Wapusk National Park (Manitoba, Canada) region of the Hudson Bay Lowlands.

The hydrology of shallow lakes (and ponds) located in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) is sensitive to climate warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, their biological characteristics are poorly known, which hampers effective aquatic ecosystem monitoring. Located in northern Manitoba along the southwestern coast of Hudson Bay, Wapusk National Park (WNP) encompasses numerous shallow lakes representative of the subarctic zone. We analyzed the distribution and diversity of diatom (microscopic algae; class Bacillariophyceae) assemblages in surficial sediments of 33 lakes located in three different ecozones spanning a vegetation gradient, from NE to SW: the Coastal Fen (CF), the Interior Peat Plateau (IPP), and the Boreal Spruce Forest (BSF). We found significant differences (P < 0.05) in diatom community composition between CF and IPP lakes, and CF and BSF lakes, but not between IPP and BSF lakes. These results are consistent with water chemistry measurements, which indicated distinct limnological conditions for CF lakes. Diatom communities in CF lakes were generally dominated by alkaliphilous taxa typical of waters with medium to high conductivity, such as Nitzschia denticula. In contrast, several IPP and BSF lakes were dominated by acidophilous and circumneutral diatom taxa with preference for low conductivity (e.g., Tabellaria flocculosa, Eunotia mucophila, E. necompacta var. vixcompacta). This exploratory survey provides a first detailed inventory of the diatom assemblages in the WNP region needed for monitoring programs to detect changes in shallow lake ecosystems and ecozonal shifts in response to climate variations.

Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada).

Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds ("WAP 12", "WAP 20", and "WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of (210)Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring.

"mus co shee": Indigenous Plant Foods and Horticultural Imperialism in the Canadian Sub-Arctic.

The 17th-century arrival of the Hudson's Bay Company in Rupert's Land disrupted Mushkegowuk (Cree) hunter-gatherer society by replacing the collection of indigenous plant foods with a British planted-food model. Within a hundred years of British contact, new foodways relied upon hunting and gardening, bringing a loss in heritage plant food knowledge. Mushkegowuk living in the sub-arctic today have minimal knowledge of edible indigenous plants. Dependence on limited local gardening or imported grocery store vegetables has affected diet, nutrition, and cultural systems. In addition to exploring plant food gathering and gardening history in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, this paper demonstrates how re-discovering lost foodway knowledge can contribute to the health and well-being of those living in the far north.

Organohalogen contaminants and total mercury in forage fish preyed upon by thick-billed murres in northern Hudson Bay.

Twelve marine fish species collected from a thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) breeding colony in northern Hudson Bay in the Canadian Arctic during 2007-2009 were analyzed for legacy organochlorines (e.g. PCBs, DDT), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), perfluorinated carboxylates (PFCAs) and sulfonates (PFSAs), and total mercury (Hg). No one species of prey fish had the highest levels across all contaminant groups analyzed. For the two pelagic fish species sampled, concentrations of the major organochlorine groups (e.g. Σ21PCB, ΣDDT, ΣCHL, ΣCBz), ΣPBDE, ΣPFCA and Hg were consistently higher in Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) than in capelin (Mallotus villosus). Biomagnification factors from whole fish to thick-billed murre liver across all species were generally higher for Σ21PCB and ΣDDT. ΣPBDE did not biomagnify.

What to eat now? Shifts in polar bear diet during the ice-free season in western Hudson Bay.

Under current climate trends, spring ice breakup in Hudson Bay is advancing rapidly, leaving polar bears (Ursus maritimus) less time to hunt seals during the spring when they accumulate the majority of their annual fat reserves. For this reason, foods that polar bears consume during the ice-free season may become increasingly important in alleviating nutritional stress from lost seal hunting opportunities. Defining how the terrestrial diet might have changed since the onset of rapid climate change is an important step in understanding how polar bears may be reacting to climate change. We characterized the current terrestrial diet of polar bears in western Hudson Bay by evaluating the contents of passively sampled scat and comparing it to a similar study conducted 40 years ago. While the two terrestrial diets broadly overlap, polar bears currently appear to be exploiting increasingly abundant resources such as caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) and newly available resources such as eggs. This opportunistic shift is similar to the diet mixing strategy common among other Arctic predators and bear species. We discuss whether the observed diet shift is solely a response to a nutritional stress or is an expression of plastic foraging behavior.

Future sea ice conditions in Western Hudson Bay and consequences for polar bears in the 21st century.

The primary habitat of polar bears is sea ice, but in Western Hudson Bay (WH), the seasonal ice cycle forces polar bears ashore each summer. Survival of bears on land in WH is correlated with breakup and the ice-free season length, and studies suggest that exceeding thresholds in these variables will lead to large declines in the WH population. To estimate when anthropogenic warming may have progressed sufficiently to threaten the persistence of polar bears in WH, we predict changes in the ice cycle and the sea ice concentration (SIC) in spring (the primary feeding period of polar bears) with a high-resolution sea ice-ocean model and warming forced with 21st century IPCC greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: B1 (low), A1B (medium), and A2 (high). We define critical years for polar bears based on proposed thresholds in breakup and ice-free season and we assess when ice-cycle conditions cross these thresholds. In the three scenarios, critical years occur more commonly after 2050. From 2001 to 2050, 2 critical years occur under B1 and A2, and 4 under A1B; from 2051 to 2100, 8 critical years occur under B1, 35 under A1B and 41 under A2. Spring SIC in WH is high (>90%) in all three scenarios between 2001 and 2050, but declines rapidly after 2050 in A1B and A2. From 2090 to 2100, the mean spring SIC is 84 (±7)% in B1, 56 (±26)% in A1B and 20 (±13)% in A2. Our predictions suggest that the habitat of polar bears in WH will deteriorate in the 21st century. Ice predictions in A1B and A2 suggest that the polar bear population may struggle to persist after ca. 2050. Predictions under B1 suggest that reducing GHG emissions could allow polar bears to persist in WH throughout the 21st century.