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Causal inference methods can be applied to estimate the effect of a point exposure or treatment on an outcome of interest using data from observational studies. For example, in the Women's Interagency HIV Study, it is of interest to understand the effects of incarceration on the number of sexual partners and the number of cigarettes smoked after incarceration. In settings like this where the outcome is a count, the estimand is often the causal mean ratio, i.e., the ratio of the counterfactual mean count under exposure to the counterfactual mean count under no exposure. This paper considers estimators of the causal mean ratio based on inverse probability of treatment weights, the parametric g-formula, and doubly robust estimation, each of which can account for overdispersion, zero-inflation, and heaping in the measured outcome. Methods are compared in simulations and are applied to data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study.
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BACKGROUND: Tourniquets are widely used in limb fracture surgeries. Controversies still exist about the pressure inflated, including unified tourniquet inflation pressure (UTIP) and personalized tourniquet inflation pressure (PTIP). This study evaluated the hemostatic effect between UTIP and PTIP based on systolic blood pressure (SBP) in extremity fracture patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with fresh extremity fractures requiring tourniquets during surgeries were prospectively enrolled and randomly assigned to the UTIP and PTIP groups. The inflation pressure was set to 250 mmHg for the upper extremities and 300 mmHg for the lower extremities in the UTIP group and SBP plus 50 mmHg for the upper extremities and SBP plus 100 mmHg for the lower extremities in the PTIP group. The primary outcome was a hemostatic effect evaluated by the surgeon (satisfied or dissatisfied). Other secondary outcomes included postoperative changes in limb swelling and tourniquet-related complications. RESULTS: A total of 144 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to the UTIP group or the PTIP group, and each group has 72 patients (36 upper limb and 36 lower limb). Totally, the hemostasis effect of the PTIP group was worse than that of the UTIP group by non-inferiority test. The hemostatic effect of upper limb fractures with SBP plus 50 mmHg for tourniquet inflation pressure was also worse than that with 250mmHg; however, there was no statistically significant difference between 300mmHg and SBP plus 100 mmHg in the lower limb group hemostasis effect due to a lack of power. Also, no difference was observed in the incidence of complications (p = 1.000) and postoperative changes in limb swelling during 2 days after surgery (upper limb: P1 = 0.546, P2 = 0.545; lower limb: P1 = 0.408, P2 = 0.857) between the PTIP and UTIP group. CONCLUSION: In the surgery of limb fractures, setting SBP + 50mmHg as tourniquet pressure may not be sufficient for upper limbs. Also, we found no difference between the SBP + 100mmHg and the unified 300mmHg for lower limb surgeries.
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Pressão , Torniquetes , Humanos , Torniquetes/efeitos adversos , Masculino , Feminino , Estudos Prospectivos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Fraturas Ósseas/cirurgia , Procedimentos Ortopédicos/métodos , Idoso , Pressão Sanguínea/fisiologia , Extremidade Superior/cirurgia , Adulto Jovem , Hemostasia Cirúrgica/métodos , Hemostasia Cirúrgica/instrumentação , Extremidade Inferior/cirurgia , Extremidade Inferior/irrigação sanguíneaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the utilization and reimbursement for tracheostomy. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study. SETTING: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Medicare Provider Utilization and Payment Data (2013 and 2021) and Part B Medicare Fee-For-Service National Summary Data (2000-2022). METHODS: Utilization, payment, and specialty breakdown were analyzed for planned tracheostomy (Current Procedural Terminology [CPT] codes 31600, 31601, 31610) and emergency tracheostomy (CPT codes 31603, 31605). RESULTS: From 2000 to 2022, there was a 48.9% decrease (40,754-20,812) in number of planned tracheostomies and a 75.3% decrease (3277-811) in number of emergency tracheostomies, leading to an overall decrease of 51%. Similarly, there was a 59.3% inflation-adjusted decrease ($13.4-$5.5 million) in total reimbursement for planned tracheostomies and an 82.1% inflation-adjusted decrease ($1.1 million-$205 thousand) in total reimbursement for emergency tracheostomies. There was a 20.3% inflation-adjusted decrease ($329-$262) in reimbursement per planned tracheostomy and a 27.7% inflation-adjusted decrease ($349-$252) in reimbursement per emergency tracheostomy. In our sample of 280 high-volume tracheostomy providers in 2021 (28.2% otolaryngology, 28.2% general surgery, 14.6% thoracic surgery, 14.3% pulmonary disease, 6.4% critical care), the average provider performed 15.8 tracheostomies and was reimbursed $5362. CONCLUSION: Despite significant declines in tracheostomy utilization and reimbursement, understanding trends for these lifesaving procedures are critical for otolaryngologists and other providers in delivering high-quality care, and can be used by surgeons, hospital systems, and policymakers to guide future health care legislation.
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BACKGROUND: Determining which patients with ARDS are most likely to benefit from lung recruitment maneuvers is challenging for physicians. The aim of this study was to assess whether the single-breath simplified decremental PEEP maneuver, which evaluates potential lung recruitment, may predict a subject's response to lung recruitment maneuvers, followed by PEEP titration. METHODS: We conducted a pilot prospective single-center cohort study with a 3-step protocol that defined sequential measurements. First, potential lung recruitment was assessed by the single-breath maneuver in the volume controlled mode. Second, the lung recruitment maneuver was performed in the pressure controlled mode, with a fixed driving pressure of 15 cm H2O and a maximum PEEP of 30 cm H2O. Third, the lung recruitment maneuver was followed by decremental PEEP titration to determine the optimal PEEP, defined as the lowest driving pressure. Responders to the lung recruitment maneuver were defined by an improvement in PaO2 /FIO2 > 20% between the baseline state and the end of the PEEP titration phase. RESULTS: Forty-two subjects with moderate-to-severe ARDS were included. The mean ± SD lung recruitment was 149 ± 104 mL. A threshold lung recruitment of 195 mL (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.62, 95% CI 0.43-0.80) predicted a positive response to the maximal lung recruitment maneuver. The lung recruitment maneuver, followed by PEEP titration, resulted in a modification of PEEP in 74% of the subjects. PEEP was increased in more than two thirds of the responders and decreased in almost half of the non-responders to the lung recruitment maneuver. In addition, a decrease in driving pressure and an increase in respiratory system compliance were reported in 62% and 67% of the subjects, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The single-breath maneuver for evaluating lung recruitability predicted, with poor accuracy, the subjects who responded to the lung recruitment maneuver based on PaO2 /FIO2 improvement. Nevertheless, the lung recruitment maneuver, followed by PEEP titration, improved ventilator settings and respiratory mechanics in a majority of subjects.
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Eucalyptus plantations are widespread in the highlands of northern Ethiopia. The species has been used for centuries for various purposes. However, there are controversies surrounding the species with excessive soil nutrient and water consumption. Modelling the spatial distribution of the species is fundamental to understand its ecological and hydrological effects in the region for policy inputs. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a model for mapping the spatial distribution of Eucalyptus globulus. We used the spectral bands of Sentinel-2 data, vegetation indices, and environmental data as predictor variables and three machine learning algorithms (Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Boosted Regression Trees) to model the current distribution of Eucalyptus globulus. Eleven of the twenty-five predictor variables were filtered using a variance inflation factor (VIF). 419 in situ georeferenced data points were used for training, and validating the models. The area under the curve (AUC), kappa statistic (K), true skill statistic (TSS), Root Mean Squared Error and coefficient of determination (R2) were used to validate the models' performance. The model validation metrics confirmed the highest performance of Random Forest. The prediction map of Random Forest revealed that Eucalyptus globulus was fairly detected in non-Eucalyptus globulus woody vegetation (R2 = 0.86, P < 0.001; RMSE = 0.31). We found that the Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and environmental variables, such as elevation and distance from the road, were the most important predictor variables in explaining the distribution of Eucalyptus globulus. Our findings demonstrate that machine learning algorithms with Sentinel-2 spectral bands and vegetation indices compounded with environmental data can effectively model the spatial distribution of Eucalyptus globulus.
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Cornea is an essential element of our eye. The refractive power of the cornea is closely related to its shape, which depends on the balance between its mechanical properties and the intraocular pressure. However, in keratoconus, the shape of the cornea is altered, and the mechanical properties (i.e., elastic modulus and viscosity) are reduced. These alterations have been associated with the development of striae within the cornea. Recently, such striae have been observed in healthy corneas as well, but with slightly different shapes. Our study investigated the mechanical role of these striae. To this end, we performed an inflation test under Optical Coherence Tomography: tomographic volumes were acquired in the central zone of eleven human corneas during an inflation test. Striae planes were extracted from the segmented images, and principal deformation maps were obtained by Digital Volume Correlation (DVC). We observe that the pattern of the striae does not change with pressure, even far above physiological pressure. Maximum principal strains are co-localized with the striae and are oriented perpendicular to the striae. We also observe that principal deformations on the striae increase with depth in the cornea. Our results show that striae lead to greater deformability in the direction perpendicular to the striae, especially in the posterior part of the cornea where they are the most visible. This supports the idea that the striae are undulations in the cornea collagenous microstructure, which are progressively unfolded under loading. They decrease the global stiffness of the cornea, in particular in the posterior part, and thus may help in accommodating deformations.
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Geographic studies of suicide variation typically focus on predictors at the same level as the event rates, and the possible interplay between different spatial scales does not generally figure. In this paper we focus on suicide variations between 6856 small area census units in England, but against a background provided by nine regions, broad urban-rural categories, and 155 local labour markets. Suicide death totals vary considerably between the small areas, with more areas than expected having no deaths, so we apply zero inflated regression. With this framework, we consider the relative contribution of factors at higher and lower spatial scales in explaining small area suicide contrasts, and why some areas have unduly elevated or unduly low suicide rates. We find significantly lower suicide levels in English metropolitan regions, after allowing for neighbourhood influences, but considerable heterogeneity in risks within broader spatial units. Varying incidence in general is associated significantly with all observed neighbourhood risk factors (social fragmentation, socioeconomic status, mental ill-health, ethnic mix), but low fragmentation and low psychiatric morbidity are the only significant influences on unduly low incidence.
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Bladder inflation may be a temporizing measure to tamponade pelvic bleeding in select trauma cases to bridge the patient to definitive interventions. Ultrasonographic confirmation of an intact bladder with an adjacent pelvic haematoma in a shocked adult with pelvic fracture is used for subject selection. An illustrative example of physiologic and interventional radiological control of pelvic bleeding following bladder inflation with sterile saline is presented.
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INTRODUCTION: Recent research has raised questions about potential unintended consequences of the Inflation Reduction Act's Drug Price Negotiation Program (DPNP), suggesting that the timelines introduced by the law may reduce manufacturer incentives to invest in post-approval research towards additional indications. Given the role of multiple indications in expanding treatment options in patients with cancer, IRA-related changes to development incentives are especially relevant in oncology. This study aimed to describe heterogeneous drug-level trajectories and timelines of subsequent indications in a cohort of recently approved, multi-indication oncology drugs, including overall, across subgroups of drugs characterized by the timing and pace of additional indications, and by drug type (i.e., small molecule vs. biologic). METHODS: This cross-sectional study evaluated oncology drugs first approved by the FDA from 2008 to 2018 and later approved for one or more additional indications. Numbers, types, and approval timelines of subsequent indications were recorded at the drug level, with drugs grouped by quartile based on the pacing of post-approval development (i.e., "rapid pace" to "measured pace"). RESULTS: Multi-indication oncology drugs (N = 56/86, 65.1%) had one or more subsequent indication approved in a new: cancer type (60.7%), line of treatment (50.0%), combination (41.1%), mutation (32.1%), or stage (28.6%). The median time between FDA approvals for indications increased from 0.6 years (IQR: 0.48, 0.74) in the "rapid pace" group to 1.6 years (IQR: 1.32, 1.66), 2.4 years (IQR: 2.29, 2.61), and 4.9 years (IQR: 3.43, 6.23) in the "moderate," "measured-moderate," and "measured" pace groups, respectively. Drugs in the "rapid pace" group often received their first subsequent indication approval within 9 months of initial approval (median: 0.7 years; IQR: 0.54, 1.59), whereas the "measured pace" group took a median of 5.7 years (IQR: 3.43, 6.98). Across all multi-indication drugs, the median time to the most recent approval for a subsequent indication was 5.5 years (IQR: 3.18, 7.95). One quarter (25%) of drugs were approved for their most recent subsequent indication after the time at which they would be DPNP-eligible. CONCLUSION: Approval histories of new oncology drugs demonstrate the role of post-approval indications in expanding treatment options towards new cancer types, stages, lines, combinations, and mutations. Heterogeneous clinical development pathways provide insights into potential unintended consequences of IRA-related changes surrounding post-approval research and development.
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BACKGROUND: The shortage of physicians in Turkey is a highly critical emergency. In fact, physicians' migration to developing or high-income countries, defined as brain drain, threatens the sustainability of the national healthcare system. AIMS: This study explored the driving factors associated with Turkish Physicians' brain drain, including high-economic inflation, social-politics, poor-living, equity, violence, and the desire to practice medical activity abroad. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 1,861 Turkish physicians aged 25 to 65 years old was conducted employing the Brain Drain questionnaire, the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS-21), the Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9), and the Fatigue Assessment Scale (FAS). RESULTS: Significant differences were observed among physicians staying in Turkey versus considering migration to Western countries, regarding their age, gender, marital status, educational level, occupational status, work years, hospital night shifts, income, and cigarette/nargileh smoking habits (all p ⩽ .018). The main reasons for brain drain included transport problems, harassment, low salary, malpractice, bad environment, job insecurity, workload, burnout, treating difficult patients, inadequate postgraduate systems, peer-pressure, health safety concerns, and favoritism in the workplace, as well as stress and depression caused by work overload. In fact, depression, anxiety, stress, fatigue, and burnout varied significantly among the different groups of physicians (all p ⩽ .013). Additionally, key predictors of brain drain were better job opportunities, poor hospital management (in Turkey), job-related stress, dealing with difficult patients, research deficiencies, workload, burnout, transportation issues, short consultation time, low salary, and fatigue. Among the general factors contributing to the brain drain in the Turkish Health System, we identified significant issues related to research deficiencies, compulsory working duties, poor quality of postgraduate, inadequate medical-schools, poor hospital management, and shortage of consultants. CONCLUSION: Physicians' migration is a major global public health concern, leading to substantial risks for healthcare services, especially in Turkey. Many physicians decide to migrate to work in Western countries.
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OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the impact of redesigning an entrustable professional activities (EPAs) assessment tool on the accuracy of student performance assessment within pharmacy education. METHODS: The study used retrospective programmatic data for students on clinical rotations over a 3-year period and compared entrustment levels assigned by preceptors with suggested entrustment levels. This tool was redesigned to separate formative EPA feedback from final grade determination. Data were analyzed using chi-squared tests to identify trends in students ABOVE, AT, or BELOW the suggested entrustment levels. Additionally, to account for intercohort variability, the relationship between students ABOVE the suggested level of entrustment and postgraduate metrics was examined. RESULTS: After the implementation of the revised tool, there was a significant decrease (-3%) in the percentage of students scoring ABOVE the suggested entrustment levels and an increase in the percentage of students scoring AT (+1%) or BELOW (+2%) the suggested entrustment levels. Changes were also observed in individual patient care settings, with a decrease in grade inflation and an increase in accurate assessments. North American Pharmacist Licensure Examination (NAPLEX) pass rates, residency match rates, and grade point average did not correlate with entrustment levels. CONCLUSION: The redesigned EPA assessment tool demonstrated a decrease in grade inflation resulting in more accurate assessments. The tool's focus on holistic grading and narrative descriptors contributed to better alignment between preceptor assessment and school-suggested achievement levels. This study suggests that EPA assessments in pharmacy education could benefit from a stronger emphasis on formative feedback and the use of holistic assessment methods for final grade determinations. The findings underscore the potential advantages of considering a separation between EPA scoring and final grades, prompting the Academy to explore their assessment practices to better reflect student performance in clinical experiences.
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Competência Clínica , Educação em Farmácia , Avaliação Educacional , Preceptoria , Estudantes de Farmácia , Avaliação Educacional/métodos , Avaliação Educacional/normas , Humanos , Educação em Farmácia/métodos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Competência Clínica/normas , Educação Baseada em Competências/métodos , Aprendizagem Baseada em ProblemasRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The median cost of anti-seizure medications (ASM) in the United States (U.S.) nearly doubled per person between 2006 and 2021. This increase, combined with shifts in ASM usage and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on drug supply chains amid rising inflation, underscored the urgent need to scrutinize ASM pricing dynamics. This study aimed to analyze the complex dynamics of ASM pricing in the U.S. over the past decade (2013-2023); this included how the entry of generic ASMs influenced the pricing of brand-name counterparts and what impacted price variations across different ASM formulations (e.g., significant inflation, the COVID-19 pandemic). METHODS: This study utilized National Average Drug Acquisition Cost (NADAC) data from November 2013 to July 2023. We adjusted ASM prices for inflation using the Consumer Price Index for Medicinal Drugs - Seasonally Adjusted (CPI-MDS). Statistical analyses included fixed effects regressions and multivariable regression analysis to evaluate the impact of inflation, the number of medication labelers, and the COVID-19 pandemic on ASM prices. RESULTS: Our study analyzed 23 ASMs approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which encompassed 223 oral formulations:112 brand-name and 111 generics. From 2013-2016 to 2020-2023, accounting for standard deviations (SD), the average price of brand-name ASMs increased from $8.71 (SD 5.9) to $15.43 (SD 10.7), while generic ASMs saw a slight decrease from $1.39 (SD 1.8) to $1.26 (SD 1.6). Consequently, the price gap between brand-name and generic ASMs surged from 1452.39 % to 3399.26 %. The proportion of matched brand-name and generic ASMs with a price difference of 1000 %-9999 % increased from 32.88 % (2013-2016) to 41.43 % (2020-2023), while those exceeding 10,000 % rose from 16.44 % to 20 % in the same period. Generic immediate-release (IR) formulations were significantly less expensive than extended-release (ER) or delayed-release (DR) counterparts, with cost differences reaching up to 7751.20 %. The number of medication labelers was inversely related to generic ASM prices, which decreased by 5.45 % (p = 0.001) with each additional generic labeler, while brand-name ASM prices increased by 2.46 % (p < 0.001) with each additional generic labeler. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a 24.4 % increase in brand-name ASM prices and a 23.1 % decrease in generic ASM prices. CONCLUSIONS: The findings reveal an expanding price disparity between brand-name and generic oral ASMs. An inverse relationship was observed between the number of medication labelers and generic ASM prices, with additional labelers driving down generic prices. However, introducing more generic labelers led to a significant increase in brand-name ASM prices. Furthermore, following patent expirations, brand-name ASM prices rose-a trend explained by the "generics paradox," where, contrary to expectations, brand prices do not decrease and may even increase when generics enter the market. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions in drug pricing policies to manage the rising costs associated with epilepsy treatment. To ensure equitable access to ASMs, stakeholders must understand and address the factors driving these pricing dynamics.
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Policy Points Health care systems around the world rely on a range of methods to ensure the affordability of prescription drugs, including negotiating prices soon after drug approval and relying on formal clinical assessments that compare newly approved therapies with existing alternatives. The negotiation framework established under the Inflation Reduction Act is far more limited than other frameworks explored in this study. Adding elements from these frameworks could lead to more effective price negotiation in the United States. CONTEXT: In 2022, Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which allowed Medicare, for the first time, to begin negotiating the prices for certain high-cost brand-name prescription drugs. Many other industrialized countries negotiate drug prices, and we sought to compare and contrast key features of the negotiation process across several health systems. We focused, in particular, on the criteria for selecting drugs for price negotiation, procedures for negotiation, factors that influence negotiated prices, and how prices are implemented. METHODS: We included four G7 countries in our analysis (Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom [England]), two Benelux countries (Belgium and the Netherlands), and one Scandinavian country (Norway) with long-established frameworks for drug price negotiation. We also analyzed the Veterans Affairs Health System in the United States. For each system, we gathered relevant legislation, government publications, and guidelines to understand negotiation frameworks, and we reached out to key drug price negotiators in each system to conduct semistructured interviews. All interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded, and data were analyzed based on an internal assessment tool that we developed. FINDINGS: All eight systems negotiate the prices of brand-name prescription drugs soon after approval and rely on formal clinical assessments that compare newly approved drugs with existing therapies. Systems in our study differed on characteristics such as whether the body performing clinical assessments is separate from the negotiating authority, how added health benefit is assessed, whether explicit willingness-to-pay thresholds are employed, and how specific approaches for priority disease areas are taken. CONCLUSIONS: High-income countries around the world adopt different approaches to conducting price negotiations on brand-name drugs but coalesce around a set of practices that will largely be absent from the current Medicare negotiation framework. US policymakers might consider adding some of these characteristics in the future to improve negotiation outcomes.
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Background For over a decade, the number of residency applications has surged, a trend known as "application inflation." COVID-19 further intensified this trend, leading the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) to address the issue by introducing a supplemental application in the 2021-2022 cycle, allowing programs to identify applicants with a connection to their program or geographic region. For the 2022-2023 cycle, the number of program signals increased from five to seven. The impact of the supplemental application and the increase in signals on the likelihood of an applicant matching with a program has yet to be evaluated. Methods This retrospective cohort study evaluated the impact of program signaling and geographic preference on the matching likelihood in our internal medicine residency program. Data from MyERAS® and the Supplemental Application for 640 applicants who applied to our large, urban, university-based program in the Southeastern United States during the 2020-2021 and 2022-2023 application cycles were included. Using univariate and multivariate analysis, we examined the correlation between program signal, geographic preference, and final match location. Results Applicants who sent a program signal had nearly three-fold higher odds of matching with our program. Geographic preference was numerically but not statistically associated with higher odds of matching. Both signaling a preference for matching with a program in an urban environment and couples matching correlated with decreased odds of matching with our program. Geography was an important predictor of match location as residing in our AAMC geographic region, our four-state area, and our specific state had increased odds of matching with our program. Conclusions Signaling our program was associated with increased odds of matching with our program. Geographic preferences were less predictive of a match with our program; however, they did predict the likelihood of a match at a program within that region. Future studies are needed to ensure external validity.
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Background: Thoracoscopic anatomical segmentectomy is increasingly recognized for managing early-stage lung cancer. However accurately identifying intersegmental planes (ISPs), especially in complex lung segments, remains challenging. In comparison to conventional methods, fluorescence imaging represents a novel solution. This study aimed to examine the potential benefits of fluorescence imaging in single-port thoracoscopic anatomical segmentectomy. Methods: A multicenter (three regional hospitals), retrospective, comparative analysis was conducted using data from 402 consecutive patients who underwent single-port thoracoscopic anatomical segmentectomy from June 2020 to December 2022. The cohort included 191 patients treated with the fluorescence method and 211 patients treated with the modified inflation-deflation method. Among the cohort, 130 patients were placed in the simple segmentectomy group and 272 in the complex segmentectomy group. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to adjust for baseline differences between the fluorescence and modified inflation-deflation subgroups in the complex segmentectomy group. Perioperative outcomes were compared between the groups. Results: In the simple segmentectomy group, no significant differences were observed between the fluorescence and modified inflation-deflation methods regarding segmental resection time, intraoperative blood loss, postoperative chest tube drainage and duration, postoperative pain, length of hospital stay, complication rate, or hospital costs. In the complex segmentectomy group, however, fluorescence imaging significantly shortened segmental resection time (69.37±28.22 vs. 78.80±34.66 min; P=0.03), while reducing intraoperative blood loss (P=0.046); and improving visual analogue scale (VAS) pain scores on the first postoperative day (P=0.006). Both methods demonstrated comparable safety and oncologic effectiveness. Conclusions: Fluorescence-guided single-port thoracoscopic anatomical segmentectomy demonstrated comparable perioperative safety and effectiveness to the modified inflation-deflation technique while offering advantages, such as shorter segmental resection time, for complex segmentectomies.
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This paper introduces a meticulously organized dataset derived from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook (IMF WEO) forecasts, including GDP growth, CPI inflation, and current account balances for 196 countries from 1990 to 2024. Sourced from the WEO historical database and updated to 2024, the dataset contains forecasts of crucial economic indicators - GDP growth, CPI inflation, and current account balance - in an accessible and user-friendly Excel format. This dataset is a valuable resource for academic researchers, economists at central banks, finance ministries, and other stakeholders, enabling diverse analyses such as evaluations of IMF forecasts, research into optimism bias, and studies on equilibrium exchange rates. Additionally, it may be useful for foreign investors in making informed strategic investment decisions.
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Observing others performing an action can lead to false memories of self-performance-the observation-inflation effect. Previous research has indicated that this phenomenon might impact the memory of actions in real-world interactions. However, whether direct observation without interaction can lead to observation inflation remains unclear. In Experiment 1, participants passively observed the experimenter performing actions live. In subsequent memory tests, they indeed reported false memories regarding their performances. Building on this, Experiment 2 investigated the causes of the observation-inflation effect induced by "real" actions. Participants underwent imitation-inhibition training with the individuals they observed previously. The results revealed that participants who completed imitation-inhibition training reported fewer false memories in memory tests than those who completed imitation training. These findings suggest that even passive observation of "real" actions can lead to observation inflation, and the simulation of others' actions by individuals may be a potential underlying cause of their occurrence in real-life situations.
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The depletion of natural gas reserves, combined with rising oil prices, local market inflation, and concerns about pollution, has accelerated the search for alternative energy sources. As a result, research on turbines and internal combustion engines for electricity generation is increasingly focusing on using vaporized ethanol as a fuel substitute. However, the high cost of analyzing the chemical composition of these fuels often leads to an oversight of their impact on combustion characteristics, such as flame behavior, emission profiles, and temperature distribution.This study employs a statistical approach to assess the combustion and emission characteristics of biofuels, aiming to find suitable alternatives to petroleum-based fuels. By integrating considerations of oil price fluctuations and the digital economy's impact, the research proposes a cost-effective method for evaluating the chemical makeup of vaporized fuels and their effects on post-combustion pollution.Experimental data reveal that alternative fuels can offer stable ignition performance and lower pollution levels, contingent on their specific properties. Fuels with high aromatic content and viscosity tend to produce significant CO emissions, while reducing these characteristics may increase CO2 production. The study also highlights the challenge of simultaneously reducing both CO and NOx emissions. Additionally, the findings show that petroleum gasoline, due to its lower volatility, has favorable fire safety properties and generates fewer pollutants.In the context of economic pressures from rising oil prices and inflation, this research underscores the importance of exploring biofuels as viable, sustainable alternatives for the future energy landscape.
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Examining the relationship between self-assessed intelligence (SAI) and psychometric intelligence (IQ) is essential for understanding how people's self-evaluations reflect their actual intelligence. Various factors, such as SAI measurement methods, participant characteristics, and testing conditions have been hypothesized to moderate the SAI-IQ link, yet the generality of this association remains unclear. Here, we provide evidence for SAI and IQ associations based on 278 effect sizes from 115 independent samples (N = 36,833) using a multi-level meta-analysis, revealing a moderate positive correlation (r = 0.30; 95% CI [0.27, 0.33]). Multiverse analyses demonstrated remarkable stability of this effect, with most summary effect specifications yielding significant positive correlations (96%), averaging r = 0.32. Notably, ability domain and sample type emerged as significant moderators, with numerical ability showing stronger correlations compared to general cognitive, verbal, and spatial abilities. Importantly, our study found that correlations in student samples were significantly higher than those in general samples. Our findings show a moderate positive association of SAI with IQ, unaffected by participant sex, publication year, administration order, neuroticism, and self-assessment method, yet significantly moderated by ability domain and sample type. Our results illustrate the importance of feedback in educational settings to help students accurately assess their cognitive abilities.
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INTRODUCTION: Sustained lung inflation (SLI) right after birth to decrease the use of mechanical ventilation of preterm infants is controversial because of potential harm. This randomized controlled trial was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of delayed SLI in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). METHODS: Preterm neonates requiring continuous positive airway pressure after birth were eligible for enrollment. In the experimental group, SLI with 20 cm H2O for 15 s was conducted by experienced staff in the NICU between 30 min and 24 h after birth. RESULTS: A total of 45 neonates were enrolled into this study, including 24 in the experimental group and 21 in the control group. There was no significant difference in the birth condition between the experimental and control groups, including gestational age (p = 0.151), birth weight (p = 0.692), and Apgar score at 1 min (p = 0.410) and 5 min (p = 0.518). The results showed the duration of respiratory support was shorter in the experimental group than the control group (p = 0.044). In addition, there was no significant difference in the other outcomes, such as pneumothorax, patent ductus arteriosus, and bronchopulmonary dysplasia. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that sustained inflation conducted by experienced staff in the NICU is safe. The data suggest that SLI conducted by experienced staff in the NICU after stabilization could serve as an alternative management for preterm infants with respiratory distress. However, the reduction in use of respiratory support should be interpreted cautiously as a result of limited sample size. TRIAL REGISTRATION: University hospital Medical Information Network (UMIN) Clinical Trials Registry: UMIN000052797 (retrospectively registered).