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Efforts to stabilize the global climate change while also continuing human development depend upon "decoupling" economic growth from fossil fuel CO2 emissions. However, evaluations of such decoupling have typically relied on production-based emissions, which do not account for emissions embodied in international trade. Yet international trade can greatly change emissions accounting and reshape the decoupling between emissions and economic growth. Here, we evaluate decoupling of economic growth from different accounts of emissions in each of the 159 countries and analyze the drivers of decoupling. We find that between 1995 and 2015, although 29 countries exhibited strong decoupling of territorial emissions (growing economies and decreasing emissions), only 19 countries achieved economic growth while their consumption-based emissions decreased. Most developed countries have achieved decoupling of emissions related to domestic goods and services, but have not achieved decoupling of emissions related to imported goods and services. The U-test confirms that the domestic component of consumption-based emissions exhibits a stronger decoupling trend from gross domestic product (GDP) growth than consumption-based emissions, and emissions from imports continue to rise with GDP per capita without a corresponding decline, providing a statistical validation of the decoupling analysis. Moreover, in the countries where economic growth and consumption-based emissions are most decoupled, a key driver is decreasing emissions intensity due to technological progressâand especially reductions in the intensity of imported goods and services. Our results reveal the importance of assessing decoupling using consumption-based emissions; successful decoupling may require international cooperation and coordinated mitigation efforts of trading partners.
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The rapid urbanization taking place in Africa is resulting in the emergence of large urban agglomerations. Despite the potential and typical economic benefits associated with the emergence of such agglomerations elsewhere, not much can be said of Africa's urbanization. With urbanization projections pointing to a continued increase, there is a need to understand the urbanization and economic dynamics relationship in order to exploit the full potential of this wave. Using a panel data set of urbanization rate, trade, economic growth, productivity and employment in six African countries for the period 1991-2019, we explore this relationship by adopting the cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) approach using data from six African countries. The findings show that there is a significant relationship between urbanization, international trade, economic growth, productivity, and employment. they also show a causal relationship between the variables studied. In addition, the findings of this study reveal that international trade contributes, significantly, to improving the productivity in long run and the economic growth and employment increase the productivity in short run and employment in the selected African countries. This research study, therefore, contributes to the critical argument that African urbanization and international trade have significant economic potential and therefore need to be encouraged and managed effectively. This provides evidence for planners and policy-makers to back policy geared toward sustainable urbanization and diversified international trade that will contribute to the structural transformation of African countries.
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The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a central policy within China's regional development and foreign trade strategy. Traditional trade has typically depended on economic valuation of resources, while the embedded environmental value is rarely considered. This situation exists in most BRI trade evaluations. To address BRI environmental sustainability issues, we consider the role of pivotal Chinese provinces and their key trade partners (ASEAN countries) as an illustration for the environmental value of resource exchanges. Emergy accounting is used as the valuation tool for a sample period of seventeen years. Key results include: (1) Emergy valuations show sustainability of sample provinces decreased over time; (2) ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam play significant resource roles for provincial economic systems; (3) Diverse trends in trade between pivotal provinces and ASEAN countries resulted in an unbalanced trade structure from trade. Policy implications are proposed to promote a more globally sustainable and fair trade using BRI as an established trade policy.
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The burgeoning interconnectedness of global trade in the digital age not only presents enticing opportunities but also harbors potent vulnerabilities of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven cyberattacks. This study explores the cascading impacts of these disruptive threats on economies, supply chains, and trade, utilizing the intricate lens of Computable General Equilibrium modeling. Through meticulously designed simulation scenarios, we illuminate the potential economic ramifications of cyberattacks, with a focus on regions heavily reliant on digital technologies and interwoven supply chains. The analysis reveals significant declines in real GDP, trade prices and volumes, and trade route disruptions across regions. Notably, economies like China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the EU, due to their deep integration in global networks, face pronounced vulnerabilities. However, amidst this bleak landscape, hope emerges in the form of cyber resilience. The study showcases the effectiveness of proactive measures like adaptable production systems, diversified trade partners, and robust cybersecurity infrastructure in mitigating the adverse impacts of cyberattacks. Incorporating cyber resilience significantly dampens the reported negative consequences, highlighting the critical role of preparedness in combating digital warfare. This study underscores the urgent need for a global paradigm shift toward cyber resilience. Collective efforts to bolster cybersecurity infrastructures, foster international cooperation in threat intelligence, and establish open and resilient trade frameworks are crucial in navigating the treacherous labyrinth of AI-driven cyberattacks. By embracing resilience strategies and fostering global collaboration, we can pave the way for a more secure and prosperous digital future, where interconnectedness becomes a tool for progress, not a vulnerability to be exploited.
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The Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China has significantly increased trade in countries along the Belt and Road (B&R). Since most of these countries are developing and emerging economies, the pressure to reduce carbon emissions poses a leading challenge for them. Carbon productivity has become a key indicator for assessing the degree of low-carbon development, as it can link economic development with CO2 emission reduction. However, few studies have investigated how international trade affects carbon productivity. Based on panel data from 43 countries along the B&R during 2001-2019, this paper uses a system GMM model to explore the impact of international trade on carbon productivity. Then, we divide the 43 countries in the sample into two groups according to their income levels to compare the different effects of international trade on carbon productivity. The results show that, first, the carbon productivity of the examined B&R countries has an overall increasing trend, and there is a significant heterogeneity of carbon productivity among countries with different income levels. Second, the effects of international trade, export, and import on carbon productivity are all significantly positive, and export's effect is higher than import. In the high-income group, carbon productivity is more likely to be improved by trade than in the middle (low)-income group. Third, economic development level, urbanization, and energy productivity are positively associated with carbon productivity, while CO2 per capita and government size inhibit carbon productivity improvement. Insight into the impact of international trade on carbon productivity provides theoretical support for B&R countries to better leverage foreign trade activities to achieve a green economy.
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Dióxido de Carbono , Carbono , Comércio , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , ChinaRESUMO
Lack of hard currency is one of the key growth barriers in emerging countries, as imports vastly outstrip exports. In response, governments in these countries usually undertake a variety of policy packages, including the devaluation of the domestic currency. Despite these efforts, there have been no discernible adjustments to foreign balance. This study examines whether the response to devaluation differs significantly between the goods and services trade in Ethiopia. We estimate the long- and short-run elasticities of the disaggregated trade indicators using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction mechanisms. The empirical results confirm a significant difference between the goods and service sectors in terms of their responses to the devaluation policy in the long and short run. The estimated long-run elasticities of devaluation are only statistically significant for service imports and trade balances with negative signs. The remaining sectors did not show any significant relationships. In addition, we obtain meaningful short-run elasticities for service imports, goods exports, and total exports, all of which have a negative sign. Domestic inflation accounted for a large portion of the short-run import dynamics, output growth, and FDI, which contributed significantly to long-term export performance. The current study reveals that the government should not rely exclusively on the devaluation policy to bridge its external imbalances, and should see alternative and more effective policy mixes to alter the demand and supply sides of foreign trade.
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Biosecurity is a major concern in the global pig production. The separation in time of semen collection, processing and insemination in the pig farm is a few days for chilled semen but it can be indefinite when using cryopreserved semen. Field fertility results of boar cryopreserved semen are close to chilled semen, which makes it a valuable resource for the establishment of semen genebanks, long-distance semen trade, and the implementation of other technologies such as the sex-sorted semen. But cryopreserved semen is far from being routine in pig farms. The most recent research efforts to facilitate its implementation include the use of additives before freezing, or in the thawing extender. Long-term preserved semen trade is a biosecurity challenge. To harmonize international trade of germplasm, the World Organization of Animal Health (WOAH) established a regulatory framework for all member countries. The present paper aims to review the latest advances of boar semen cryopreservation with special focus on the benefits of its inclusion as a routine tool in the pig industry. We also review recently reported field fertility results of cryopreserved semen, its international trade compared to chilled semen, and the regulatory framework involved. Boar cryopreserved semen is a valuable tool to control biosecurity risk, implement other technologies, and facilitate international trade. Research already demonstrated good field fertility results, but it still represents less than 0.1â¯% of the international trade. As boar cryopreserved semen gets closer to implementation, the correspondent authorities are reviewing the trade rules.
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Addressing global carbon inequality constitutes an important task for both international negotiations on climate-change mitigation and the achievement of sustainable development goals. Soaring international trade might become a vigorous modifier for reducing global carbon inequality through production reallocation and economic boosts in different countries. However, this effect remains largely unexplored, not only because of little awareness of the windfall benefits from international trade but also because of debates on quantifying global carbon inequality from both production- and consumption-based perspectives. To avoid incomplete implications from a single perspective, this study first adapted a producer-consumer shared responsibility to evaluate global carbon inequality using the technology-adjusted consumption-based accounting method for 189 countries from 2006 to 2016. A dynamic panel data model was developed to examine the different channels through which international trade affects global carbon inequality in developed and developing countries. The results demonstrate that even with increasing carbon emissions, less global carbon inequality was witnessed from 2006 to 2016. International trade plays an important role in reducing global carbon inequality, mostly by stimulating the economy and increasing household income in developing countries. However, production reallocation via international trade fails in reducing the emission responsibilities of developed countries, rendering this futile in alleviating global carbon inequality. Carbon leakage that transfers carbon-intensive production across borders can lead to this unintended result, and more stringent cross-border regulations such as the carbon border adjustment mechanism can be effective. This study not only highlights the pivotal role of international trade in reducing global carbon inequality but also the future direction of international cooperation on climate change mitigation in a globalized world.
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Carbono , Comércio , Internacionalidade , Dióxido de Carbono , Mudança Climática , Desenvolvimento EconômicoRESUMO
We extend the opinion formation approach to probe the world influence of economical organizations. Our opinion formation model mimics a battle between currencies within the international trade network. Based on the United Nations Comtrade database, we construct the world trade network for the years of the last decade from 2010 to 2020. We consider different core groups constituted by countries preferring to trade in a specific currency. We will consider principally two core groups, namely, five Anglo-Saxon countries that prefer to trade in US dollar and the 11 BRICS+ that prefer to trade in a hypothetical currency, hereafter called BRI, pegged to their economies. We determine the trade currency preference of the other countries via a Monte Carlo process depending on the direct transactions between the countries. The results obtained in the frame of this mathematical model show that starting from the year 2014, the majority of the world countries would have preferred to trade in BRI than USD. The Monte Carlo process reaches a steady state with three distinct groups: two groups of countries preferring to trade in whatever is the initial distribution of the trade currency preferences, one in BRI and the other in USD, and a third group of countries swinging as a whole between USD and BRI depending on the initial distribution of the trade currency preferences. We also analyze the battle between three currencies: on one hand, we consider USD, BRI and EUR, the latter currency being pegged by the core group of nine EU countries. We show that the countries preferring EUR are mainly the swing countries obtained in the frame of the two currencies model. On the other hand, we consider USD, CNY (Chinese yuan), OPE, the latter currency being pegged to the major OPEC+ economies for which we try to probe the effective economical influence within international trade. Finally, we present the reduced Google matrix description of the trade relations between the Anglo-Saxon countries and the BRICS+.
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Benefiting from international economic cooperation on income, technology diffusion, and employment, China also suffers its environmental and health impacts, from both international trade (IT), as is now widely understood, and international industrial transfer (IIT), which has been largely unrecognized. Here, we develop a comprehensive framework to estimate the impacts of exporting IT and receiving IIT. We find that China's emissions of CO2 and almost all air pollutants associated with IIT and IT together grew after 1997 but then declined after 2010, with the peak shares of national total emissions ranging 18-31% for different species. These sources further accounted for 3.8% of nationwide PM2.5 concentrations and 94,610 (76,000-112,040) premature deaths in 2012, and the values declined to 2.6% and 67,370 (52,390-81,810), respectively, for 2017. Separated, the contribution of IIT to those impacts was more than twice that of IT. Scenario analyses suggest that improving emission controls in its less-developed regions would effectively reduce the impact of economic globalization, but such a benefit could be largely offset by strengthened international economic cooperation. The outcomes provide a scientific basis for adjusting China's strategic roles in the international distribution of industrial production and its formulation of relevant environmental policies from a comprehensive perspective.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Comércio , Internacionalidade , Poluição do Ar/análise , Indústrias , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , China , Dióxido de Carbono/análiseRESUMO
To be able to formulate any plausible strategies for sustainability, it is critical to establish a clear understanding of the international metals trade system complexity and the consequences in emergent embodied carbon emissions (ECE). For this purpose, we proposed a two-layer framework based on the multi-regional input-output model for calculating ECE: the intermediate production and final consumption trade layers. The proposed framework model combines the construction of a clustering index system and conducting cluster analysis from both the regional and sectoral dimensions. It is shown that developed regions transfer carbon emissions to developing regions via metals trading. This happens especially in the intermediate production stage at a level of 1.35 times higher than the final consumption stage. Furthermore, the metal sector suffers the most from carbon transfers from manufacturing, with the most carbon emissions transferred to mining. Moreover, considering environmental and technological factors to cluster regions and sectors into four and three clusters. China and Russia are in a cluster under greater pressure to reduce emissions as compared to other nations. Also, the construction and manufacturing form a cluster that their reduction of carbon emissions will effectively reduce the ECE of the metal sector. As a result, policy implications for reducing carbon emissions are investigated for each cluster in the international trade of metals contributing to the ultimate goal of global sustainable development.
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Carbono , Comércio , Carbono/análise , Internacionalidade , China , Dióxido de Carbono/análiseRESUMO
The construction of trade power and green low-carbon transformation are common high-quality development goals for countries worldwide. The depth of the environmental provisions contained in different countries' intercountry trade agreements and the implicit carbon data of intercountry trade are accurately measured based on the textual analysis of trade agreement rules, and it is empirically found that enhancing the depth of the environmental provisions contained in trade agreements can significantly reduce CO2 emissions embodied in international trade. The capacity of intercountry green technology cooperation to strengthen the internal environmental governance capacity of countries and to enhance carbon productivity is an important transmission mechanism. The effect of the environmental provisions in different types of trade agreements on reducing trade-implied carbon is obviously heterogeneous; the higher the level of correlation with carbon emissions is, the stronger the effect of trade agreement provisions, and that effect is more significant in developed countries and in the reduction of foreign carbon emissions that are embedded in export products. In this paper, the impact of the depth of the environmental provisions of trade agreements on trade-implied carbon under the same framework is directly studied, which not only advances the measurement of the depth of the environmental provisions of trade agreements and expands the research field on the scope of influence of existing trade agreements but also fully accounts for the role of the effectiveness of environmental provisions in different contexts and provides a theoretical basis for the optimization of future environmental provisions.
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Comércio , Internacionalidade , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Política Ambiental , Carbono/análise , China , Desenvolvimento EconômicoRESUMO
This study analyzed the theoretical mechanism of the carbon emission effect embodied in the Sino-USA manufacturing trade. We constructed a trade and carbon emission input-output model for 16 manufacturing sub-sectors in China and the USA from 2000 to 2018. A comprehensive empirical test of the systematic emission reduction mechanism was conducted. There were four main findings: (1) indirect and direct carbon emissions indicators can comprehensively analyze the link between production and demand across sectors; (2) indirect carbon emissions are higher than direct carbon emissions in half of the sectors in both China and the USA, and other sectors bear part of the carbon emissions for these sectors; (3) compared to 2000, the change in net exports of both countries is the main reason for the change in indirect carbon emissions, while the change in net exports of intermediate goods is the main reason for the change in direct carbon emissions; and (4) the Sino-USA trade surplus comes at the expense of China's environmental losses, while the USA obtains environmental benefits. Overall, the theoretical analytical framework not only comprehensively considers the interlinkages between production and demand across sectors but also provides a more reasonable evaluation of the environmental effects of Sino-USA trade. Additionally, this study provides a solid theoretical and empirical basis for China to achieve its dual-cycle and dual-carbon goals, thus promoting the rapid transformation of China's economy toward green and high-quality development.
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Dióxido de Carbono , Carbono , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Comércio , China , Clima , Desenvolvimento EconômicoRESUMO
The impact of international trade on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has primarily been viewed through the lens of emissions embodied in goods, which flow from lower-income to higher-income countries. This trade has been interpreted as allowing the high-income countries to shirk their responsibilities to address the global climate challenge by offshoring emissions. However, international trade may also have an impact on climate through flows from higher-income to lower-income countries, particularly long-lived capital and durable goods that have the potential to avoid future emissions. Given the innovation resources concentrated in higher-income countries and their historic domination of trade in such long-lived goods, this concept may balance the scales to some degree. This paper briefly develops the concept of future avoided emissions and illustrates it with the empirical case of the United States' trade in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from 2017 to 2020.
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Comércio , Gases de Efeito Estufa , Estados Unidos , Internacionalidade , Renda , Clima , Efeito EstufaRESUMO
Recent literature highlights the contributions the global energy sector has made to anthropogenic CH4 emissions, calling for immediate action. However, extant studies have failed to reveal the energy-related CH4 emissions induced by global trades of intermediate and final commodities or services. This paper traces fugitive CH4 emissions via global trade networks using the multi-regional input-output and complex network models. Results show that approximately four-fifths of global fugitive CH4 emissions in 2014 were associated with international trade, of which 83.07% and 16.93% were embodied in the intermediate and final trades, respectively. Japan, India, the USA, South Korea, and Germany were the world's five largest net importers of embodied fugitive CH4 emissions, while Indonesia, Russia, Nigeria, Qatar, and Iran were the five largest net exporters. Gas-related embodied emission transfers were the largest in both the intermediate and the final trade networks. The fugitive CH4 emissions embodied within the intermediate and final trade networks were all characterized by five trading communities. The virtual fugitive CH4 emission transfers via intermediate trade were largely determined by global energy trade patterns, especially the trade in regionally integrated crude oil and natural gas. Significant heterogeneity was revealed by the coexistence of numerous loosely linked economies and several hub economies (e.g., China, Germany, the USA, and South Africa). Interventions on the demand side of interregional and intraregional trade partners in different communities and hub economies will bring targeted opportunities for global energy-related CH4 emission reduction.
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Comércio , Internacionalidade , Alemanha , China , Irã (Geográfico) , Dióxido de Carbono/análiseRESUMO
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most potent greenhouse gas (GHG) and the most important ozone depleting substance. But how global N2O emissions are connected through the interwoven trade network remains unclear. This paper attempts to specifically trace anthropogenic N2O emissions via global trade networks using a multi-regional input-output model and a complex network model. Nearly one quarter of global N2O emissions can be linked to products traded internationally in 2014. The top 20 economies contribute to about 70% of the total embodied N2O emission flows. In terms of the trade embodied emissions classified by sources, cropland-, livestock-, chemistry-, and other industries-related embodied N2O emissions account for 41.9%, 31.2%, 19.9%, and 7.0%, respectively. Clustering structure of the global N2O flow network is revealed by the regional integration of 5 trading communities. Hub economies such as mainland China and the USA are collectors and distributors, and some emerging countries, such as Mexico, Brazil, India, and Russia, also exhibit dominance in different kinds of networks. This study selects the cattle sector to further verify that low production-side emission intensities and trade cooperation can lead to N2O emission reduction. In view of the impact of trade networks on global N2O emissions, achieving N2O emission reduction calls for vigorous international cooperation.
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Gases de Efeito Estufa , Animais , Bovinos , Óxido Nitroso/análise , China , Brasil , ÍndiaRESUMO
The China-Europe Railway Express (CRexpress) has established a new land transportation route between Asia and Europe as part of China's westward expansion. The resulting trade promotion effect has the potential to improve industrial development and factor flows, ultimately leading to a reduction in the income disparity between urban and rural areas in cities that use the CRexpress. The impact of the CRexpress on income disparities between urban and rural areas in cities that use the service is of particular interest, as the empirical evidence on the relationship between international trade and these disparities is inconsistent. Using a difference-in-differences model and macro panel data, this study found that the CRexpress significantly narrowed the urban-rural income gap in cities where it was operational, and that this effect had a spillover effect on nearby cities. However, the magnitude of this effect decreased with distance. The mechanism analysis indicated that the CRexpress narrowed the income gap by promoting secondary industry development, but this effect varied significantly by region, with pronounced effects in eastern coastal cities and less pronounced effects in inland cities in the central and western region. The study suggests that local governments in these regions should focus on improving the institutional environment and providing industrial support to promote industrial transfer in order to narrow the urban-rural income gap and promote overall economic development.
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Open access resource problems and harmful pollutants from manufacturing activities are common in resource management practices. Nevertheless, their implications have only been studied in different and separate frameworks that are not covered within the same structure. Previous studies suggest that resource management enforced by one country can increase welfare levels and rebuild resource conservation, compared to the case where no country imposes resource management policies. However, in real-life examples, the harvesting and manufacturing industries exert simultaneous pressure on fishery resource stocks, thereby changing the nature of the supply curve of renewable resources. This study investigates the effects of trade liberalization under unilateral resource management regimes in a two-country, two-sector model, in which both production sectors can detrimentally affect renewable natural resources by generating two interacting environmental burdens: excessive harvesting and industrial pollution. It is demonstrated that unilateral resource management applied by a country in which the resource-good sector is relatively less damaging to fishery stocks is welfare-reducing for both countries compared to the situation where neither manages its resource sector. This result is identified as "immiserizing resource management." Notably, however, unilateral resource management by one country in which the resource-good sector has a more significant negative impact than the manufacturing industry can benefit both trading partners in welfare terms; this is referred to as "improving resource management." Policymakers in international organizations should consider the relative dominance of externalities in the presence of weak property rights before requiring resource management as a condition for participating in international trade.
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Chip is the "brain" of the information industry and modern manufacturing industry, and supply chain security is the key to the sustainable development of the industrial chain. From the perspective of the industrial chain, this paper selected semiconductor silicon wafers and equipment, integrated circuits, electronic computers, and components as representative commodities in the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the chip industry chain, constructed global trade networks of the chip industry chain, and analyzed the characteristics of the networks and nodes in 2020 and the changes in China's status before and after the China-U.S. tech war. The study results indicate that the network scale and network density of the global trade network of downstream electronic computers and components are higher than those of midstream integrated circuits; the global trade network of upstream semiconductor wafers and equipment has the smallest network scale and network density, and the trade networks of all links show obvious small-world characteristics; The United States ranks first in betweenness centrality of all links, with the strongest control ability and the largest number of trading partners in all links; China has higher betweenness centrality and more trading partners in the global trade network of the two upstream commodities than that of the midstream commodities, and the lowest betweenness centrality in the global trade network of the downstream commodities; The core countries of the chip industry chain are concentrated in southeast Asia, east Asia, central and western Europe, and the United States. China's trade status of semiconductor silicon wafers and integrated circuits has declined significantly during the China-U.S. tech war. The nodes in the chip trade network have good robustness in the face of random attacks and show vulnerability under target attacks. Additionally, the trade network's robustness in the chip industry chain is the strongest for downstream commodities, ranks second for midstream commodities, and is the weakest for upstream commodities. These findings can provide references for ensuring chip supply chain security in China and other trade-participating countries.
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Climate change is acknowledged to directly affect not only the environment, economy, and society but also the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, thereby impacting public health. The recent experiences with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and Monkeypox have highlighted the complex and interconnected nature of infectious diseases, which are strongly linked to various determinants of health. Considering these challenges, adopting a new vision such as the trans-disciplinary approach appears to be imperative. This paper proposes a new theory about viruses' spread, based on a biological model, accounting for the optimisation of energy and material resources for organisms' survival and reproduction in the environment. The approach applies Kleiber's law scaling theory, originally developed in biology, to model community dynamics in cities. A simple equation can be used to model pathogen spread without accounting for each species' physiology by leveraging the superlinear scaling of variables with population size. This general theory offers several advantages, including the ability to explain the rapid and surprising spread of both SARS-CoV-2 and Monkeypox. The proposed model shows similarities in the spreading processes of both viruses, based on the resulting scaling factors, and opens new avenues for research. By fostering cooperation and integrating knowledge from different disciplines to effectively tackle the multifaceted dimensions of disease outbreaks, we can work towards preventing future health emergencies.