Seroincidence of Enteric Fever, Juba, South Sudan.

We applied a new serosurveillance tool to estimate typhoidal Salmonella burden using samples collected during 2020 from a population in Juba, South Sudan. By using dried blood spot testing, we found an enteric fever seroincidence rate of 30/100 person-years and cumulative incidence of 74% over a 4-year period.

Seroprevalence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 IgG in Juba, South Sudan, 20201.

Relatively few coronavirus disease cases and deaths have been reported from sub-Saharan Africa, although the extent of its spread remains unclear. During August 10-September 11, 2020, we recruited 2,214 participants for a representative household-based cross-sectional serosurvey in Juba, South Sudan. We found 22.3% of participants had severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) receptor binding domain IgG titers above prepandemic levels. After accounting for waning antibody levels, age, and sex, we estimated that 38.3% (95% credible interval 31.8%-46.5%) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. At this rate, for each PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection reported by the Ministry of Health, 103 (95% credible interval 86-126) infections would have been unreported, meaning SARS-CoV-2 has likely spread extensively within Juba. We also found differences in background reactivity in Juba compared with Boston, Massachusetts, USA, where the immunoassay was validated. Our findings underscore the need to validate serologic tests in sub-Saharan Africa populations.

Severe maternal morbidity (near-miss) and its correlates in the world's newest nation: South Sudan.

BACKGROUND: This study investigates the frequency of near-miss events and compares correlates in the world's newest nation. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out to audit near-miss events and their causes. A total of 1,041 mothers were sampled. Data were gathered using World Health Organization near-miss evaluation tools according to morbidity and organ failure-based criteria. Intensive care unit admission criteria were not used (as there is no functional intensive care unit in Juba Teaching Hospital). Descriptive statistics and bivariate and multivariable logistic regression were used to analyze the data. The study adhered to the Declaration of Helsinki. RESULTS: Nearly half (49.7%) of the clients were young pregnant women (aged 15-24 years), with a mean age of 25.07±5.65 years. During the study period, there were 994 deliveries, 94 near-misses, and 10 maternal deaths. This resulted in maternal near-miss and mortality rates of 94.1 per 1,000 and 1,007 per 100,000 live births, respectively. Severe maternal outcome and maternal near-miss rates were 10.47 per 1,000 (morbidity-based criteria) and 41.3 per 1,000 (organ failure-based criteria), respectively. The likelihood of mortality was 25% (95% CI 10%-51%) for a ruptured uterus, 9% (95% CI 4%-17%) for severe postpartum hemorrhage, and 11% (95% CI 3%-30%) for eclampsia. Anemia, hemorrhage, and dystocia were the highest contributory factors in the occurrence of maternal near-misses. CONCLUSION: The near-miss rate was high. Contributing factors were lack of resources, low quality of primary health care, and delays in care. All near-misses should be regarded as opportunities to improve the quality of maternity care. Health institutes should address delays in conducting interventions, referral barriers, and personnel gaps. Fully functional intensive-care units must be created in all facilities, including Juba Teaching Hospital and other hospitals. Notification policies for all near-miss cases should be in place in all health care units, with a "no shame, no blame" approach.

Rainfall as a driver of epidemic cholera: Comparative model assessments of the effect of intra-seasonal precipitation events.

The correlation between cholera epidemics and climatic drivers, in particular seasonal tropical rainfall, has been studied in a variety of contexts owing to its documented relevance. Several mechanistic models of cholera transmission have included rainfall as a driver by focusing on two possible transmission pathways: either by increasing exposure to contaminated water (e.g. due to worsening sanitary conditions during water excess), or water contamination by freshly excreted bacteria (e.g. due to washout of open-air defecation sites or overflows). Our study assesses the explanatory power of these different modeling structures by formal model comparison using deterministic and stochastic models of the type susceptible-infected-recovered-bacteria (SIRB). The incorporation of rainfall effects is generalized using a nonlinear function that can increase or decrease the relative importance of the large precipitation events. Our modelling framework is tested against the daily epidemiological data collected during the 2015 cholera outbreak within the urban context of Juba, South Sudan. This epidemic is characterized by a particular intra-seasonal double peak on the incidence in apparent relation with particularly strong rainfall events. Our results show that rainfall-based models in both their deterministic and stochastic formulations outperform models that do not account for rainfall. In fact, classical SIRB models are not able to reproduce the second epidemiological peak, thus suggesting that it was rainfall-driven. Moreover we found stronger support across model types for rainfall acting on increased exposure rather than on exacerbated water contamination. Although these results are context-specific, they stress the importance of a systematic and comprehensive appraisal of transmission pathways and their environmental forcings when embarking in the modelling of epidemic cholera.