Predicting mortality of elderly patients undergoing open heart surgery with delirium using sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), multi-organ dysfunction (MODS), and logistic organ dysfunction system (LODS) scores.

PURPOSE: This study aims to assess the predictive accuracy of SOFA, MODS, and LODS scores in determining the mortality of elderly undergoing open heart surgery with delirium. METHODS: A prospective study involved 111 elderly patients who met the inclusion criteria. Data were collected using scoring systems: SOFA, MODS, and LODS. RESULTS: Upon final follow-up, 86.5 % of the patients had recovered, 13.5 % had died. Sensitivity, specificity, negative, and positive predictive values for predicting mortality in elderly patients were calculated for the SOFA score as 99 %, 73 %, 98 %, and 76 %, respectively. For the MODS score, these values were 95 %, 60 %, 95 %, and 67 %; for the LODS score, they were 92 %, 73 %, 92 %, and 75 %, respectively. The overall accuracy of the three scores-SOFA, MODS, and LODS-was 84 %, 76 %, and 82 %, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results indicated that the SOFA score exhibited the highest sensitivity and specificity in predicting mortality among elderly individuals.

Predictive Value of Multiple Scoring Systems in the Prognosis of Septic Patients with Different Infection Sites: Analysis of the Medical Information Mart for the Intensive Care IV Database.

The heterogeneity nature of sepsis is significantly impacted by the site of infection. This study aims to explore the predictive value of multiple scoring systems in assessing the prognosis of septic patients across different infection sites. Data for this retrospective cohort study were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database (MIMIC-IV) (v2.2). Adult patients meeting the criteria for sepsis 3.0 and admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) were enrolled. Infection sites included were pneumonia, urinary tract infection (UTI), cellulitis, abdominal infection, and bacteremia. The primary outcome assessed was 28-day mortality. The sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS), and Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS) score were compared. Binomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the association between these variables and mortality. Additionally, differences in the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) among the scoring systems were analyzed. A total of 4721 patients were included in the analysis. The average 28-day mortality rate was 9.4%. Significant differences were observed in LODS, OASIS, and SOFA scores between the 28-day survival and non-survival groups across different infection sites (p < 0.01). In the pneumonia group and abdominal infection group, both the LODS and OASIS scoring systems emerged as independent risk factors for mortality in septic patients (odds ratio [OR]: 1.165, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.109-1.224, p < 0.001; OR: 1.047, 95% CI: 1.028-1.065, p < 0.001) (OR: 1.200, 95% CI: 1.091-1.319, p < 0.001; OR: 1.060, 95% CI: 1.025-1.095, p < 0.001). For patients with UTI, the LODS, OASIS, and SOFA scoring systems were identified as independent risk factors for mortality (OR: 1.142, 95% CI: 1.068-1.220, p < 0.001; OR: 1.062, 95% CI: 1.037-1.087, p < 0.001; OR: 1.146, 95% CI: 1.046-1.255, p = 0.004), with the AUC of LODS score and OASIS significantly higher than that of the SOFA score (p = 0.006). Among patients with cellulitis, the OASIS and SOFA scoring systems were identified as independent risk factors for mortality (OR: 1.055, 95% CI: 1.007-1.106, p = 0.025; OR: 1.187, 95% CI: 1.005-1.403, p = 0.044), with no significant difference in prognosis prediction observed (p = 0.243). In the bacteremia group, the LODS scoring system was identified as an independent risk factor for mortality (OR: 1.165, 95% CI: 1.109-1.224, p < 0.001). The findings suggest that LODS scores offer better prognostic accuracy for predicting the mortality risk in septic patients with pneumonia, abdominal infections, bacteremia, and UTI compared to SOFA scores.

The value of five scoring systems in predicting the prognosis of patients with sepsis-associated acute respiratory failure.

Our study aimed to identify the optimal scoring system for predicting the prognosis of patients with sepsis-associated acute respiratory failure (SA-ARF). All data were taken from the fourth version of the Markets in Intensive Care Medicine (MIMIC-IV) database. Independent risk factors for death in hospitals were confirmed by regression analysis. The predictive value of the five scoring systems was evaluated by receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Kaplan‒Meier curves showed the impact of acute physiology score III (APSIII) on survival and prognosis in patients with SA-ARF. Decision curve analysis (DCA) identified a scoring system with the highest net clinical benefit. ROC curve analysis showed that APS III (AUC: 0.755, 95% Cl 0.714-0.768) and Logical Organ Dysfunction System (LODS) (AUC: 0.731, 95% Cl 0.717-0.7745) were better than Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) (AUC: 0.727, 95% CI 0.713-0.741), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) (AUC: 0.706, 95% CI 0.691-0.720) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) (AUC: 0.606, 95% CI 0.590-0.621) in assessing in-hospital mortality. Kaplan‒Meier survival analysis patients in the high-APS III score group had a considerably poorer median survival time. The DCA curve showed that APS III may provide better clinical benefits for patients. We demonstrated that the APS III score is an excellent predictor of in-hospital mortality.

Simplified acute physiology score III is excellent for predicting in-hospital mortality in coronary care unit patients with acute myocardial infarction: A retrospective study.

Background: Coronary care unit (CCU) patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) lack effective predictors of in-hospital mortality. This study aimed to investigate the performance of four scoring systems in predicting in-hospital mortality in CCU patients with AMI. Methods: The baseline data, the logistic organ dysfunction system (LODS), the Oxford acute severity of illness score (OASIS), the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II), and the simplified acute physiology score III (SAPS III) scores of the patients were extracted from the fourth edition of the Medical Information Mart for Critical Care (MIMIC-IV) database. Independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality were identified by regression analysis. We performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and compared the area under the curve (AUC) to clarify the predictive value of the four scoring systems. Meanwhile, Kaplan-Meier curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) were performed to determine the optimal scoring system for predicting in-hospital mortality. Results: A total of 1,098 patients were included. The SAPS III was an independent risk factor for predicting in-hospital mortality in CCU patients with AMI before and after the propensity score matching (PSM) analysis. The discrimination of in-hospital mortality by SAPS III was superior to that of LODS, OASIS, and SAPS II. The AUC of the SAPS III scoring system was the highest among the four scoring systems, at 0.901 (before PSM) and 0.736 (after PSM). Survival analysis showed that significantly more in-hospital mortality occurred in the high-score SAPS III group compared to the low-score SAPS III group before PSM (HR 7.636, P < 0.001) and after PSM (HR 2.077, P = 0.005). The DCA curve of SAPS III had the greatest benefit score across the largest threshold range compared to the other three scoring systems. Conclusion: The SAPS III was an independent risk factor for predicting in-hospital mortality in CCU patients with AMI. The predictive value for in-hospital mortality with SAPS III is superior to that of LODS, OASIS, and SAPS II. The results of the DCA analysis suggest that SAPS III may provide a better clinical benefit for patients. We demonstrated that SAPS III is an excellent scoring system for predicting in-hospital mortality for CCU patients with AMI.

Red blood cell distribution width as prognostic factor in sepsis: A new use for a classical parameter.

PURPOSE: To evaluate Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) as a sepsis prognostic biomarker. METHODS: 203 septic patients admitted to the ICU. Analysis of RDW dynamics, hospital mortality discrimination ability and the added value when incorporated to the SOFA, LODS, SAPS-II and APACHE-II scores using the AUC-ROC. RESULTS: Non-survivors presented higher RDW values during the first week after ICU admission (p = 0.048). Only SOFA and RDW were independently associated with mortality when adjusted by Charlson, immunosuppression, nosocomial infection, NEWS2, SAPS-II, septic shock and haemoglobin (p < 0.05). After adjustment, AUC-ROC was 0.827, 0.822, 0.824, 0.834 and 0.812 for each model including admission, 24, 48 and 72-h and 7-days RDW, respectively. When added to the scores, 24-h RDW and admission RDW improved their discrimination ability (SOFA AUC-ROC = 0.772 vs 0.812 SOFA + admission RDW, p = 0.041; LODS AUC-ROC = 0.687 vs 0.710, p = 0.002; SAPS-II AUC-ROC = 0.734 vs 0.785, p = 0.021; APACHE-II AUC-ROC = 0.672 vs 0.755, p = 0.003). Admission RDW with SOFA presented the better discrimination ability for mortality. CONCLUSION: RDW is an independent prognostic marker of death in septic patients admitted in the ICU that improves SOFA, LODS, APACHE-II and SAPS-II discrimination ability. This parameter could be incorporated to the prognostic scores as a marker of systemic dysfunction and dysregulated inflammatory response.

SAPS III is superior to SOFA for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria.

INTRODUCTION: The discrimination and calibration accuracy of prediction models tends to become poor over time. The performance of predictive models should be reevaluated periodically. The aim of this study was to reassess the discrimination of the six commonly used models for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis based on the Sepsis 3.0 criteria. METHODS: Patient data were extracted from the fourth edition of the Medical Information Mart for Critical Care (MIMIC IV) database. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS), Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS), and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and III (SAPS III) scores were calculated and collected. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of the models using non-parametric Wilcoxon statistics. The Delong method was used to perform pairwise comparisons of the AUROCs of the models. Multiple subgroup analyses for age, body mass index, and sex were performed with regard to the 28-day mortality prediction of the models. RESULTS: A total of 12 691 patients were included. The mean age of the patients was 65.97 ± 15.77 years; 7673 patients (60.50%) were male. The mean SIRS, SOFA, OASIS, SAPS II, LODS, and SAPS III scores were higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. The discrimination for 28-day mortality with the SAPS III (AUROC 0.812, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.802-0.822) and LODS (AUROC 0.804, 95% CI 0.743-0.765) models was superior to that of the SIRS (AUROC 0.575, 95% CI 0.562-0.589), SOFA (AUROC 0.612, 95% CI 0.598-0.626), OASIS (AUROC 0.753, 95% CI 0.742-0.764), and SAPS II (AUROC 0.754, 95% CI 0.743-0.765) models. The Youden index of the SAPS III model was 0.484, which was the highest among the models. Subgroup analyses showed similar results to the overall results. CONCLUSIONS: The discrimination for 28-day mortality with the SAPS III and LODS models was superior to that of the SIRS, SOFA, OASIS, and SAPS II models. The SAPS III model showed the best discrimination capacity for 28-day mortality compared with the other models.

[Value of predicting prognosis of patients with heat stroke by three scoring methods].

Objective: To explore the predictive value of different scoring methods for the prognosis of patients with hyperthermia. Methods: In September 2019, the clinical data of 49 patients with heat radiation disease in the second people's Hospital of Hefei were collected retrospectively. According to the prognosis of patients, they were divided into survival group (32 cases) and death group (17 cases) . The rapid emergency medicine score (REMS) , modified early warning score (modified early warning score) were calculated respectively Score (mews) , logistic organ dysfunction system (LODs) and the differences between the two groups were compared. ROC curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of various scores in the prognosis of patients with heat radiation disease. Results: the fatality of heat stroke was 34.69%, there were significant differences of REMS, MEWS and LODS between the two groups (P<0.05) , the area under ROC curve (AUC) of REMS, MEWS and LODS to predicting prognosis of heat stroke was (0.696±0.076, 95%CI: 0.548 to 0.844, P<0.05, 0.692±0.079, 95%CI: 0.536 to 0.848, P<0.05, 0.787±0.063, 95%CI: 0.663 to 0.911, P<0.05) respectively. Conclusion: There are valuable for predicting prognosis of patients with heat stroke by REMS, MEWS and LODS, especially the LODS, the REMS and MEWS are simple and easy.

Prognostic values of SOFA score, qSOFA score, and LODS score for patients with sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis continues to carry a high rate of mortality, which makes effective and simple evaluation methods for predicting the prognosis of septic patients especially important. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed the relationships between three scoring systems including Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Quick SOFA (qSOFA) score, and Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS) score and the prognoses of septic patients. METHODS: The baseline data, SOFA score, qSOFA score, LODS score, 28-day prognosis, and 90-day prognosis of patients who met the diagnostic criteria of sepsis were retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn for various indicators, and comparisons were drawn between the areas under the ROC curves (AUC) of the different scoring systems. RESULTS: The 28-day AUC was 0.661 (0.652, 0.670) for SOFA, 0.558 (0.548, 0.568) for qSOFA, and 0.668 (0.658, 0.677) for LODS; AUC-qSOFA vs. AUC-LODS was 0.103 (0.087, 0.120) (P<0.001), and AUC-qSOFA vs. AUC-LODS was 0.110 (0.094, 0.125) (P<0.001). The 90-day AUC was 0.630 (0.621, 0.640) for SOFA, 0.551 (0.541, 0.560) for qSOFA, and 0.644 (0.635, 0.653) for LODS; AUC-SOFA vs. AUC-qSOFA was 0.079 (0.065, 0.094) (P<0.001), and AUC-qSOFA vs. AUC-LODS was 0.093 (0.079, 0.107) (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: SOFA score, qSOFA score, and LODS score can all be used to predict the prognosis of septic patients. LODS score and SOFA score have higher accuracy than qSOFA score; however, qSOFA is simpler to use, making it a more suitable tool in an emergency setting.

The logistic organ dysfunction system score predicts the prognosis of patients with alcoholic ketoacidosis.

Alcoholic ketoacidosis (AKA) is occasionally associated with multiple complications leading to death. However, no study has yet evaluated prognostic factors in patients with AKA. It is known that the logistic organ dysfunction system (LODS) score is an objective and useful index to predict the prognosis. We used LODS score to predict prognosis of AKA. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 46 patients who were diagnosed as AKA in our hospital. The mean LODS score was 6.3. The probability of mortality based on the LODS score was 36.6%, and 16 patients (34.5%) did, in fact, die. The total LODS score and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were significantly higher in the non-survival group. Prothrombin activity, serum platelet number, and the serum albumin levels were significantly higher in the survival group. We found significant correlations between the LODS score and arterial pH, the albumin level, and the LDH concentration. Multivariate analysis showed that the serum albumin and LDH levels were independently associated with survival in AKA patients. AKA patients suffered high-level mortality and the LODS score was an accurate predictor of prognosis. Clinicians may use the LODS score to this end.

Implications of the new sepsis definition on research and practice.

INTRODUCTION: The Society of Critical-Care Medicine and the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine recently announced a marked change in the sepsis definition. A task force of 19 sepsis clinicians and researchers made the change based on advances in the pathobiological understanding of the septic process. SUMMARY OF CHANGE: The task force determined that there were numerous justifications for a revision of the sepsis definition, which are outlined in this article. The systemic inflammatory response criteria have been replaced by the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score in the newly operationalized definition (Singer et al., 2016). In addition to the definition change, the task force recommended using the new quick SOFA (qSOFA) score in non-ICU settings, as a risk stratification tool to identify patients who may be septic or be at risk of developing sepsis. IMPLICATIONS ON RESEARCH & PRACTICE: The change in definition will likely have a negative impact on sepsis research in the short-term as hospitals adjust their coding for the new definition, but may result in less misclassification bias and improved research data in the long-term. While the intent of the SCCM/ESICM task force was to better define sepsis for coding and epidemiological research purposes, there is the potential for improved patient outcomes if clinicians are better able to differentiate between sepsis and inflammatory events. The qSOFA tool may also aid clinicians in recognizing sepsis in a quicker manner, leading to more timely treatment, and potentially better outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: While the new operationalized Sepsis-3 definition appears on the surface to be an improvement over the previous iterations, it remains to be seen if research data will be more robust using the new criteria. There is the potential for better patient outcomes if clinicians are better able to differentiate sepsis from inflammatory events with the new definition, and if sepsis cases are recognized sooner with qSOFA. Future research on the impact of this definition change on research and practice will be essential, to determine if the Sepsis 3 definition, its associated clinical criteria, and the qSOFA need further revision.

Sensitive determination of endogenous hexanal and heptanal in urine by hollow-fiber liquid-phase microextraction prior to capillary electrophoresis with amperometric detection.

Hexanal (Hex) and heptanal (Hep) in human blood have been regarded as potential biomarkers of lung cancer. In this work, a hollow-fiber liquid-phase microextraction (HF-LPME) method has been developed for the preconcentration of these trace aldehydes in urine samples. After derivatization with an electroactive compound 2-thiobarbituric acid, these two non-electroactive aldehydes were converted to electroactive adducts, therefore detectable by capillary zone electrophoresis with amperometric detection (CZE-AD) approach. Experimental conditions of derivatization, extraction, electrophoretic separation and detection were optimized. Under the optimum conditions, the enrichment factors for Hex and Hep could reach 320 and 355, respectively. The limits of detection for Hex and Hep were 2.7 and 0.97 nM, respectively; the average recoveries were in the range of 61-95% and relative standard deviation (RSD) values less than 8.5%. The present method has been applied to quantitative analysis of two biomarkers in human urine in lieu of blood samples, and the assay results showed that the contents of Hex (0.99-6.7 µM) and Hep (2.5-6.4 µM) found in the urine sample of the lung cancer patients were significantly higher than those in the healthy volunteers, liver cancer patients, as well as diabetics. The proposed HF-LPME/CZE-AD method may provide a potential alternative for early non-invasive diagnosis of lung cancer disease.

UV-MALDI mass spectrometric quantitation of uracil based pesticides in fruit soft drinks along with matrix effects evaluation.

This study focused on the development of the accurate and precise quantitative method for the determination of pesticides bromacil (1), terbacil (2), lenacil (3), butafenacil (4) and flupropacil (5) in fruit based soft drinks. Three different types of drinks are bought from market; huddled orange fruit drink (100%) (I), red-oranges (II) and multivitamin drink containing strawberry, orange, banana and maracuja (III). Samples were analyzed "with" and "without" pulp utilizing LC-ESI (or APCI) MS/MS, HPLC-ESI-(or APCI)-MS/MS and UV-MALDI-Orbitrap-MS methods. The effect of high complexity of the food matrix on the analysis was discussed. Study focuses on the advantages of the UV-MALDI-Orbitrap-MS method compared to the traditionally involved GC alone or hybrid methods such as GC-MS and LC-MS/MS for quantification of pesticides in water and soft drinks. The developed method included the techniques performed for validation, calibration and standardization. The target pesticides are widely used for the treatment of citrus fruits and pineapples, but for soft drink products, there are still no clear regulations on pesticide residues limits. The matrix effects in the analysis of fruit drinks required implementation of the exact standard reference material corresponds to the variety of food matrices. This paper contributed to the broad analytical implementation of the UV-MALDI-Orbitrap-MS method in the quality control and assessment programs for monitoring of pesticide contamination in fruit based sodas.

Urinary phytoestrogen levels related to idiopathic male infertility in Chinese men.

Phytoestrogens (PEs) are naturally occurring chemical constituents of certain plants. The internal PE exposures, mainly from diet, vary among different populations and in different regions due to various eating habits. To investigate the potential relationship between urinary PE levels and idiopathic male infertility and semen quality in Chinese adult males, 608 idiopathic infertile men and 469 fertile controls were recruited by eligibility screening procedures. Individual exposure to PEs was measured using UPLC-MS/MS as spot urinary concentrations of 6 PEs (daidzein, DAI; equol, EQU; genistein, GEN; naringenin, NAR; coumestrol, COU; and secoisolariciresinol, SEC), which were adjusted with urinary creatinine (CR). Semen quality was assessed by sperm concentration, number per ejaculum and motility. We found that exposures to DAI, GEN and SEC were significantly associated with idiopathic male infertility (P-value for trend=0.036; 0.002; and 0.0001, respectively), while these exposures had stronger association with infertile subjects with at least one abnormal semen parameter than those with all normal semen parameters. Exposures to DAI, GEN and SEC were also related to idiopathic male infertility with abnormal sperm concentration, number per ejaculum and motility (P-value for trend<0.05), while these exposures had stronger association with the infertile men with abnormal sperm number per ejaculum. These findings provide the evidence that PE exposures are related to male reproductive function and raise a public health concern because that exposure to PEs is ubiquitous in China.

Parental phenols exposure and spontaneous abortion in Chinese population residing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Widespread use of phenols has led to ubiquitous exposure to phenols. In experimental animals, phenols increased resorptions, reduced live litter size and fetal body weights. However, there are limited epidemiological evidences of the relationships between exposure to phenols and pregnancy outcomes. We evaluated the associations between parental urinary levels of various phenols and spontaneous abortion in a Chinese population residing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. A case-control study was conducted that included 70 case couples with medically unexplained spontaneous abortion and 180 control couples who did not have a history of spontaneous abortion and had at least one living child. Both parental urinary phenols were measured by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry including bisphenol A (BPA), benzophenone-3 (BP-3), 2,3,4-trichlorophenol (2,3,4-TCP), pentachlorophenol (PCP), 4-n-octylphenol (4-n-OP) and 4-n-nonylphenol (4-n-NP). Compared with the low exposure group, there was an increased risk of spontaneous abortion with high paternal urinary PCP concentration [odds ratio (OR)=2.09, 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.05-4.14], and maternal exposure to 4-n-OP and alkylphenol(s) also significantly increased the risk of spontaneous abortion (OR=2.21, 95% CI, 1.02-4.80; OR=2.81, 95% CI, 1.39-5.65, respectively). Our study firstly provides the evidence that paternal PCP exposure, maternal 4-n-OP and alkylphenol(s) exposure are associated with spontaneous abortion in humans.