Mediating Effect of Perceived Personal Luck in the Relationship Between Narcissism and Problem Gambling in Strategic Gamblers: An Exploratory Study.

Gambling is becoming increasingly frequent among the French population, which has led to an increased number of individuals exhibiting problematic gambling patterns. Studies have found links between narcissism and cognitive distortions in relation to problem gambling, specifically among strategic gamblers, but none has tested perceived personal luck as one type of cognitive distortion in this regard. This study's purpose was to explore the relationship between narcissism, perceived personal luck and problem gambling among strategic gamblers, and to test for the mediating role of perceived personal luck in the relationship between narcissism and problem gambling. A total of 88 regular strategic gamblers were included (mean age = 37.8), with 49 non-problematic gamblers and 39 problematic gamblers. Participants completed the Problematic Gambling Severity Index, the Narcissistic Personality Inventory, and the Personal Luck Usage Scale. Results showed a significant relationship between narcissism and problem gambling, but no significant link between perceived personal luck and problem gambling and no significant mediation effect of perceived personal luck. These results may indicate a strong perception of personal skills compared to a weak perception of personal luck among problem gamblers of strategic games. This study emphasizes the importance of addressing types of gambling and types of cognitive distortions when investigating problem gambling.

Flowers vs. Devils: plants used against witchcraft in the urbanized Sonora Market, Mexico City / Flores vs Demonios: plantas usadas contra la brujería en el urbanizado Mercado de Sonora, Ciudad de México

Mexican markets embody cultural diversity and offer a wide range of products, serving as hubs for local exchange.In our study at Mexico City's Sonora Market, the country's prominent medicinal market, we explored the use of plant remedies against witchcraft in an urban environment. Through interviews with plant vendors and extensive data collection, we identified 21 plant species from 16 botanical families renowned for their effectiveness in combating sorcery, attracting good luck, and promoting success. Additionally, we documented 14 ailments associated with envy and negative emotions. These remedies involved practices and applications such as cleansings, decoctions, baths, and incense burning, aimed at alleviating afflictions and fostering positive outcomes. Notably, the Sonora Market continues to uphold the tradition of using plant remedies against witchcraft, even in the bustling setting of one of the world's largest cities. This highlights the enduring significance of these practices within Mexican society

Los mercados mexicanos encarnan diversidad cultural y ofrecen numerosos productos, sirviendo como centros de intercambio local. En nuestro estudio en el Mercado de Sonora en la Ciudad de México, el sitio de plantas medicinales más relevante del país, exploramos el uso de plantas contra la brujería en un entorno urbano. A través de entrevistas con locatarios, identificamos 21 especies de plantas pertenecientes a 16 familias botánicas usadas en la lucha contra la brujería, atrayendo buena suerte y promoviendo el éxito. Además, documentamos 14 enfermedades asociadas con la envidia y emociones negativas. Los remedios involucraban prácticas y aplicaciones como limpias, decocciones, baños, incienso, con el objetivo de aliviar dolencias y fomentar resultados positivos. En el Mercado deSonora persiste la tradición de utilizar plantas contra la brujería, incluso en el marco de una de las mayores ciudades del mundo, resaltando la importancia de estas prácticas dentro de la sociedad mexicana.

The natural history of luck: A synthesis study of structured population models.

Chance pervades life. In turn, life histories are described by probabilities (e.g. survival and breeding) and averages across individuals (e.g. mean growth rate and age at maturity). In this study, we explored patterns of luck in lifetime outcomes by analysing structured population models for a wide array of plant and animal species. We calculated four response variables: variance and skewness in both lifespan and lifetime reproductive output (LRO), and partitioned them into contributions from different forms of luck. We examined relationships among response variables and a variety of life history traits. We found that variance in lifespan and variance in LRO were positively correlated across taxa, but that variance and skewness were negatively correlated for both lifespan and LRO. The most important life history trait was longevity, which shaped variance and skew in LRO through its effects on variance in lifespan. We found that luck in survival, growth, and fecundity all contributed to variance in LRO, but skew in LRO was overwhelmingly due to survival luck. Rapidly growing populations have larger variances in LRO and lifespan than shrinking populations. Our results indicate that luck-induced genetic drift may be most severe in recovering populations of species with long mature lifespan and high iteroparity.

Diasporic Identity in Contemporary Sinophone Literature: The Role of Language and Cultural Elements.

Amidst the contemporary diasporic landscape in Sinophone literature, this research critically examines the nexus of language, culture, and identity. The study aims to analyze literary pieces composed in Sinophone languages across diverse diasporic communities and uncover the impact of language and cultural elements on the articulation and comprehension of diasporic identity. This paper used the following. comparative and typological research, an in-depth analysis of three Sinophonic texts, and contextual analysis. The subject of the study was three texts: The Joy Luck Club (Amy Tan), Balzac and the Little Chinese Seamstress (Dai Sijie), and The Woman Warrior (Maxine Hong Kingston). The results showed that In The Joy Luck Club, language and cultural facets unveil the characters' dual identity struggles due to living abroad, exemplified through code-switching's psychological tension. Balzac and the Little Chinese Seamstress utilizes language and cultural details to underscore the significance of preserving heritage within the diaspora, with literary allusions amplifying this endeavor. In The Woman Warrior, language and cultural elements reflect the heroine's inner conflict as she navigates her dual cultural allegiance. This scholarly revelation deepens comprehension of how these aspects influence identity formation in the diaspora. These findings broaden the understanding of Sinophone diasporic literature, spotlighting shared trends in identity portrayal through language and culture. The research has theoretical value for literary, cultural, and anthropological studies and practical significance, potentially informing educational initiatives on diasporic literature and cultural diversity. This study's outcomes hold relevance for students, researchers, and cultural scholars exploring the role of language and culture in diasporic identity expression.

Discrimination Based on Personal Responsibility: Luck Egalitarianism and Healthcare Priority Setting.

Luck egalitarianism is a responsibility-sensitive theory of distributive justice. Its application to health and healthcare is controversial. This article addresses a novel critique of luck egalitarianism, namely, that it wrongfully discriminates against those responsible for their health disadvantage when allocating scarce healthcare resources. The philosophical literature about discrimination offers two primary reasons for what makes discrimination wrong (when it is): harm and disrespect. These two approaches are employed to analyze whether luck egalitarian healthcare prioritization should be considered wrongful discrimination. Regarding harm, it is very plausible to consider the policies harmful but much less reasonable to consider those responsible for their health disadvantages a socially salient group. Drawing on the disrespect literature, where social salience is typically not required for something to be discrimination, the policies are a form of discrimination. They are, however, not disrespectful. The upshot of this first assessment of the discrimination objection to luck egalitarianism in health is, thus, that it fails.

Refund: a defense of luck egalitarian policy in healthcare.

Luck egalitarianism assigns a central role to personal responsibility in egalitarian justice. In the context of healthcare, luck egalitarianism is the view that the distribution of medical and healthcare resources-or common resources in general-should respond to the (im)prudence of individuals. Recently, Joar Björk, Gert Helgesson, and Niklas Juth have argued that it is impractical to use luck egalitarianism as a normative framework in healthcare because it has no reasonable way of dealing with the imprudent. In response to their argument, this paper first suggests that the epistemic problems of applying luck egalitarianism to the healthcare context raised by Björk et al. can be circumvented by using the exemption system as a policy application of luck egalitarian healthcare justice. This paper then shows that an ex ante policy, a tax system with refunds, can reasonably be adopted as a luck egalitarian institutional design of healthcare policy. We argue that the proposed conception of luck egalitarianism can deal with the problem of differential option luck. Finally, we show that the threshold problem for the definition of imprudence does not refute the proposed ex ante policy.

Is current NEET PG Counselling process full of LUCK and GAMBLING?

Each year, many students attempt the NEET PG entrance exam and then attend the counselling process to get admission in PG. However, each year, we see a lot of issues and delays in the counselling process. All these lead to the PG counselling process having some very confusing rules, and it causes a great deal of confusion and uncertainties among the students, while selecting for their deserved PG seats and attending subsequent rounds. The element of LUCK plays a significant role in allocation of PG seats. Issues like a single candidate blocking multiple seats in state and All India rounds, non-synchronisation between All India and state rounds, delay in some individual state rounds, court cases, addition or deletion of seats in the counselling process, and so on are frequent in each year's counselling process. The factor of LUCK plays a big role in somebody getting or not getting a seat. This should be completely eliminated. Simple measures like fixing the accountability, management of loopholes of the counselling process beforehand, hearing about any court cases, proper and fixed information about availability of seats in each college way before the starting of the counselling process, keeping real-time data on seats retained or left, synchronised counselling, or possibility of offline centralised counselling are some of the cost-effective impartial methods. These methods will help the students to make informed choices and reduce the element of LUCK from the counselling process. After such hard work, students deserve a counselling process which ensures less uncertainty and no role of luck and eliminates any unfair advantage/disadvantages because of faulty procedures and system issues. If such issues happen each year, it is fair to say that it is because of its sheer ignorance and in-decisions by the officials to improve the counselling process.

A normative theory of luck.

Psychologists have identified heuristics and biases that can cause people to make assumptions about factors that contribute to the success of individuals and firms, whose outcomes may have actually resulted primarily from randomness. Yet the interpretation of these biases becomes ambiguous when they represent reasonable cognitive shortcuts that offer certain advantages. This paper addresses this ambiguity by presenting four versions (weak, semi-weak, semi-strong, strong) of a normative theory of luck that integrates insights from psychology with the chance model approach to predict the circumstances under which performance non-monotonicity occurs: higher performance may not only indicate greater luck, but also lower expected merit or quality. The semi-strong version is illustrated by examining the decoupling of citations of academic publications and their impact, illuminating when higher citations indicate lower quality. We conclude by discussing the broader implications of a normative theory of luck, emphasizing strategies to address situations where people mistake luck for skill.

Resultant moral luck and the scope of moral responsibility.

Resultant moral luck occurs whenever aspects of an agent's moral responsibility are affected by luck pertaining to the outcomes of their actions. Many authors reject the existence of moral luck in this sense, but they do so in different ways. Michael Zimmerman argues that resultant luck affects the scope of moral responsibility, but not its degree. That is, it affects what agents are responsible for, but not how responsible they are. Andrew Khoury takes a more resolute approach, arguing that both the scope and the degree of moral responsibility are free from resultant luck. In this paper, I criticize both accounts and develop an alternative. I argue, first, that Khoury's approach leads to an implausibly far-reaching error-theory about moral responsibility. Second, Zimmerman's account cannot account for all the ways in which moral responsibility comes in degrees. Third, these problems can be overcome by introducing a distinction between two concepts of responsibility that both come with scope and degree. The first concept I call internal responsibility, as it applies exclusively to agent-internal factors. The second concept I call external responsibility, as it applies to (partly) agent-external factors such as actions and their outcomes. Given this distinction, we can avoid the problems of Khoury's as well as Zimmerman's accounts while preserving the central intuition behind the rejection of resultant moral luck.

"It wasn't Luck: God Wants me Here for a Reason": Perceptions of Luck Among US Patients and Its Relationships to Other Factors Among US Patients.

Patients may feel "lucky" or "unlucky" regarding disease, but questions arise about what they mean. Interviews suggest that US patients often invoke luck in trying to understand why diseases occur and treatments succeed/fail, and do so in the context of religious and spiritual beliefs, struggling with whether luck comes from God; and feeling luck is involved at various points, whether good or bad, regarding the whole or just aspects of an illness, and reflecting personal traits or single events. Social contexts can affect these views. These data have critical implications for researchers, physicians, nurses, chaplains, other providers and patients.

Who Do I (Not) Ask to Play my Lottery? Effects of Perceived Positive and Negative Agency, Communion and Luck on the Illusion of Control by Proxy.

The paper investigates the illusion of control by proxy in games of chance - an attempt to exert control by assigning it to others who are perceived as more capable, communable or luckier. Following up on research by Wohl & Enzle, who showed participants' preference to ask lucky others to play a lottery instead of doing it themselves, we included proxies with positive and negative qualities in the domains of agency and communion, as well good and bad luck. In three experiments (total N = 249) we tested participants' choices between these proxies and a random number generator in a task consisting of obtaining lottery numbers. We obtained consistent preventative illusions of control (i.e. avoidance of proxies with strictly negative qualities, as well as proxies with positive communion but negative agency), however we observed indifference between proxies with positive qualities and random number generators.

Physiological tipping points in the relationship between foraging success and lifetime fitness of a long-lived mammal.

Although anthropogenic change is often gradual, the impacts on animal populations may be precipitous if physiological processes create tipping points between energy gain, reproduction or survival. We use 25 years of behavioural, diet and demographic data from elephant seals to characterise their relationships with lifetime fitness. Survival and reproduction increased with mass gain during long foraging trips preceding the pupping seasons, and there was a threshold where individuals that gained an additional 4.8% of their body mass (26 kg, from 206 to 232 kg) increased lifetime reproductive success three-fold (from 1.8 to 4.9 pups). This was due to a two-fold increase in pupping probability (30% to 76%) and a 7% increase in reproductive lifespan (6.0 to 6.4 years). The sharp threshold between mass gain and reproduction may explain reproductive failure observed in many species and demonstrates how small, gradual reductions in prey from anthropogenic disturbance could have profound implications for animal populations.

Renouncing the attempt versus perpetration distinction.

Legal and moral luck goes against the basic principle of criminal law that responsibility ascriptions are based on the mental state of the perpetrator, rather than merely the outcome of her action. If outcome should not play a decisive role in responsibility ascriptions, the attempt versus perpetration distinction becomes more difficult to justify. One potential justification is that we never know whether the attempter would not have resigned from pursuing her criminal intent even at the last moment. However, this paper argues that resigning from criminal intent and trying to stop the criminal outcome, which is called the renunciation defense, can be just as subject to outcome luck as the attempt versus perpetration distinction. And yet the availability of the renunciation defense in court is outcome dependent. I show with a series of experiments (N = 479) that outcome dependence for the renunciation defense is perceived as unjust and discuss the implications for the renunciation defense as well as attempt versus perpetration distinction. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11229-022-04000-6.

Deepfakes, Fake Barns, and Knowledge from Videos.

Recent develops in AI technology have led to increasingly sophisticated forms of video manipulation. One such form has been the advent of deepfakes. Deepfakes are AI-generated videos that typically depict people doing and saying things they never did. In this paper, I demonstrate that there is a close structural relationship between deepfakes and more traditional fake barn cases in epistemology. Specifically, I argue that deepfakes generate an analogous degree of epistemic risk to that which is found in traditional cases. Given that barn cases have posed a long-standing challenge for virtue-theoretic accounts of knowledge, I consider whether a similar challenge extends to deepfakes. In doing so, I consider how Duncan Pritchard's recent anti-risk virtue epistemology meets the challenge. While Pritchard's account avoids problems in traditional barn cases, I claim that it leads to local scepticism about knowledge from online videos in the case of deepfakes. I end by considering how two alternative virtue-theoretic approaches might vindicate our epistemic dependence on videos in an increasingly digital world.

Luck and the 'situations' of research.

This research note uses material from interviews with senior scholars in the natural sciences to highlight, and start to explore, the role and nature of 'luck' in scientific careers. By examining this in the context of STS work on the nature of contemporary academia, we argue for the importance of taking luck seriously as we interrogate life and work in research.

Pandemic Rule-Breakers, Moral Luck, and Blaming the Blameworthy.

This paper takes under consideration a piece by Roger Crisp in which he questions what the problem of moral luck can teach us about COVID-19 lockdown rule-breakers. Taking the position that although such rule-breakers might seem to be new examples of moral luck, Crisp ends up denying the existence of moral luck and argues that moral luck is an outdated notion in so far as it relies on other questionable aspects of morality, that is, retributivist punishment and blame. Although the author agrees with Crisp that pandemic rule-breaker cases are putative examples of resultant moral luck, he proposes that Crisp has misconstrued what moral luck is and the paper examines in detail what he sees as the numerous problems with Crisp's claims. The author concludes that Crisp's analysis of pandemic rule-breaking does not shed any new light on the moral luck debate, and the difficult questions of luck, moral responsibility, and desert are not so easily resolved.

Accepting Moral Luck and Taking Responsibility in Public Health Crises.

We see cases of moral luck arising in recent times, as we face the uncertainties of provisional rules for navigating the coronavirus pandemic. How should we respond to rule-breakers, and how should they view themselves, when they cause harm inadvertently? Although some argue that guilt is unnecessary for any harm that may result from luck, this paper takes moral luck seriously and encourages consideration of the benefits to be achieved by expressions of self-blame amidst troubling circumstances, from pure accidents to how we live during pandemics. It argues that rule-breakers in public health crises show us the importance of taking responsibility for our actions.

Outcome effects, moral luck and the hindsight bias.

In a series of ten preregistered experiments (N = 2043), we investigate the effect of outcome valence on judgments of probability, negligence, and culpability - a phenomenon sometimes labelled moral (and legal) luck. We found that harmful outcomes, when contrasted with neutral outcomes, lead to an increased perceived probability of harm ex post, and consequently, to a greater attribution of negligence and culpability. Rather than simply postulating hindsight bias (as is common), we employ a variety of empirical means to demonstrate that the outcome-driven asymmetry across perceived probabilities constitutes a systematic cognitive distortion. We then explore three distinct strategies to alleviate the hindsight bias and its downstream effects on mens rea and culpability ascriptions. Not all strategies are successful, but some prove very promising. They should, we argue, be considered in criminal jurisprudence, where distortions due to the hindsight bias are likely considerable and deeply disconcerting.

The relative importance of ability, luck and motivation in team sports: a Bayesian model of performance in the English Rugby Premiership.

Results in contact sports like Rugby are mainly interpreted in terms of the ability and/or luck of teams. But this neglects the important role of the motivation of players, reflected in the effort exerted in the game. Here we present a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer the main features that explain score differences in rugby matches of the English Premiership Rugby 2020/2021 season. The main result is that, indeed, effort (seen as a ratio between the number of tries and the scoring kick attempts) is highly relevant to explain outcomes in those matches.

Harmony in a panpsychist world.

Experiences tend to be followed by states for which they provide normative reasons. Such harmonious correlations cry out for explanation. Theories that answer or diminish these cries thereby achieve an advantage over theories that do neither. I argue that the main lines of response to these cries that are available to biological theorists-theorists who hold (roughly) that conscious subjects are generally biological entities-are problematic. And I argue that panpsychism-which holds (roughly) that conscious subjects are ubiquitous in nature-provides an attractive response to these explanatory cries. Taken together, these considerations underwrite a kind of 'psychophysical fine-tuning' argument in support of panpsychism, one that is reminiscent of cosmological fine-tuning arguments in favor of multiverse hypotheses.