Characterization of respiratory illness surge (April-June 2021) post-COVID-19 lockdown.

INTRODUCTION: Following the opening of lockdown and relaxation of public health restrictions, an unusual surge of respiratory illness occurred during the spring/summer (Q2) 2021 season. We aimed to characterize this surge compared to previous years. METHODS: Children discharged from a single tertiary hospital for respiratory illness or selected noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) between 2015 and 2021 were included, and hospitalization rates were compared. To evaluate whether the current respiratory surge resembles a typical winter, characteristics of the second quarter (Q2, April-June) of 2021 were compared to parallel seasons and to autumn/winter (Q4, October-December) of the previous years. RESULTS: Respiratory illness showed a seasonal peak, while the pattern of NCD was consistent throughout the study period. Respiratory illnesses showed a delayed surge in Q2 2021 (389 patients), with a missing seasonal peak in Q2 and Q4 2020 (135 and 119 patients, respectively). There were more cases of croup in Q2 2021 compared to Q2 and Q4 2015-2019 (26.2 vs. 12.5% and 15.8%, p < 0.001), fewer cases of pneumonia (5.9 vs. 15.9% and 11.7%, p < 0.001), lower admission rates (22.4 vs. 36.3% and 31.5%, p < 0.001), and fewer hypoxemia during hospitalization (6.3 vs. 11.7% and 10%, p < 0.001). Additionally, lower use of antibiotics (6.2 vs. 12.3% and 10.3%, p = 0.001 and 0.012, respectively) and higher use of steroids (33.7 vs. 24.8% and 28.3%, p < 0.001 and 0.034, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The postponed increase in respiratory morbidity after lockdown had unique characteristics, with upper respiratory illness predominating and fewer hospitalizations. Follow-up is needed to assess the altered epidemiological patterns of respiratory diseases in the post-COVID era.

Factors associated with complicated pneumonia in children.

INTRODUCTION: Community acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading cause of morbidity in children, despite advances in health care and anti-pneumococcal vaccine. Complicated pneumonia accounts for a significant burden with prolonged hospitalization. Finding risk factors for complicated pneumonia may help in tailoring management. We aimed to identify risk factors for developing complicated pneumonia and need for intervention. METHODS: A retrospective single tertiary center study. Children admitted with a diagnosis of CAP and/or complicated pneumonia (parapneumonic effusion, empyema, necrotizing pneumonia, and lung abscess) on January 2001-March 2020 were included. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters were collected using MDclone, a data acquisition tool. Risk factors for complicated pneumonia (on admission or during hospitalization) and risk for intervention were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 6778 children with pneumonia were included; 323 arrived at the Emergency Department with complicated pneumonia while 232 developed a complication during hospitalization. Risk factors for complicated pneumonia (on admission or during hospitalization) were Arab ethnicity, cardiac disease, increased age, and CRP and low O2 Sat (OR = 2.236 p < .001, OR = 4.376 p < .001, OR = 1.131 p < .001, OR = 1.065 p < .001 and OR = 0.959 p = .029, respectively). O2 Sat was lower, while fever and CRP were higher in patients with complicated pneumonia requiring intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying children at risk for complicated pneumonia may help in decision-making in the Emergency Department and during hospitalization. The increased risk of the Arab population for complicated pneumonia requires further understanding. Addressing the underlying socioeconomic and ethnic health inequities may help to decrease the disease burden in this population.

Analyzing Medical Research Results Based on Synthetic Data and Their Relation to Real Data Results: Systematic Comparison From Five Observational Studies.

BACKGROUND: Privacy restrictions limit access to protected patient-derived health information for research purposes. Consequently, data anonymization is required to allow researchers data access for initial analysis before granting institutional review board approval. A system installed and activated at our institution enables synthetic data generation that mimics data from real electronic medical records, wherein only fictitious patients are listed. OBJECTIVE: This paper aimed to validate the results obtained when analyzing synthetic structured data for medical research. A comprehensive validation process concerning meaningful clinical questions and various types of data was conducted to assess the accuracy and precision of statistical estimates derived from synthetic patient data. METHODS: A cross-hospital project was conducted to validate results obtained from synthetic data produced for five contemporary studies on various topics. For each study, results derived from synthetic data were compared with those based on real data. In addition, repeatedly generated synthetic datasets were used to estimate the bias and stability of results obtained from synthetic data. RESULTS: This study demonstrated that results derived from synthetic data were predictive of results from real data. When the number of patients was large relative to the number of variables used, highly accurate and strongly consistent results were observed between synthetic and real data. For studies based on smaller populations that accounted for confounders and modifiers by multivariate models, predictions were of moderate accuracy, yet clear trends were correctly observed. CONCLUSIONS: The use of synthetic structured data provides a close estimate to real data results and is thus a powerful tool in shaping research hypotheses and accessing estimated analyses, without risking patient privacy. Synthetic data enable broad access to data (eg, for out-of-organization researchers), and rapid, safe, and repeatable analysis of data in hospitals or other health organizations where patient privacy is a primary value.

Factors predicting length of stay in bronchiolitis.

INTRODUCTION: Despite advances in medical knowledge, the treatment of viral bronchiolitis is mainly supportive. Antiviral therapies are being investigated in clinical trials. Identifying population-attributable risk factors for RSV hospitalization may help prioritizing targeted treatment. AIM: To utilize MDClone, a data acquisition tool, to examine factors associated with the risk of hospitalization and length of stay (LOS) in bronchiolitis. METHODS: A single tertiary medical center retrospective study. Infants discharged with a diagnosis of bronchiolitis between January 2001 and March 2019 were included. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, microbiologic parameters and co-morbidities were collected. Correlations with the risk of hospitalization and LOS were examined. RESULTS: A total of 4793 infants with bronchiolitis, 3851 (80.3%) previously healthy, were seen; 975 visited emergency room only; 3311 were hospitalized in pediatric wards and 507 required pediatric intensive care unit. O2 saturation, age and fever correlated with the risk of hospitalization (OR = 0.703, p < 0.0001, OR = 0.4, p = 0.024 and OR = 2.388, p < 0.0001, respectively). Saturation, fever, gestational age and birth weight correlated with LOS (r = -0.283, p = 0.000; r = 0.16, p = 0.000; r = -0.12, p = 0.00; and r = -0.117, p = 0.00, respectively). Rates of hospitalization were higher (81.1% vs. 75.6%, p = 0.0008) and LOS was longer (median 2.97 vs. 2.73 days, p < 0.001) in Arabs than in Jews. In a multivariate model, saturation, fever, gestational age and age predicted LOS. Saturation and ethnicity predicted LOS for previously healthy infants. Prematurity and cardiac anomalies increased LOS (p = 0.016 and p < 0.0001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Population-based data may enable predicting disease severity and LOS in bronchiolitis. Focusing on children at greatest risk may aid targeting new therapies.