Integrating datasets from herbarium specimens and images to treat a Neotropical myrtle species complex.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Herbaria are the most important source of information for plant taxonomic work. Resources and technologies available today, such as digitised collections and herbarium DNA sequencing, can help accelerate taxonomic decisions in challenging plant groups. Here we employ an integrative methodology relying exclusively on herbarium specimens to investigate species boundaries in the Neotropical Myrcia neoobscura complex (Myrtaceae). METHODS: We collected morphometric data from high-resolution images of herbarium sheets and analysed it using hierarchical clustering. We posteriorly tested the obtained morpho-groups with phylogenomics using the Angiosperms353 probe kit. We also gathered phenological and geographic information from specimen labels and built phenological histograms and ecological niche models to investigate ecological differences amongst taxa. KEY RESULTS: Current circumscriptions of Myrcia arenaria, Myrcia neoglabra and Myrcia neoregeliana are confirmed in this study. Conversely, the four pieces of evidence together support Calyptranthes langsdorffii var. grandiflora, Marlierea regeliana var. parviflora and Marlierea warmingiana as separate from Myrcia marliereana, Myrcia neoriedeliana and Myrcia neoobscura, respectively, contrary to arrangements proposed by previous authors. Integrated analyses also support separation between Myrcia excoriata and two similar, undescribed taxa. CONCLUSIONS: Our data reveal the need for major changes in the systematics of the group, with recognition of 12 species. The successful delivery of our study aims was possible due to obtaining robust, high-quality data from museum specimens. We emphasise the importance of maintaining botanical collections physically and digitally available for taxonomic work and advocate their use to accelerate holistic taxonomic solutions of tropical species complexes. This is urgent, given the paucity of funds for fieldwork and unprecedented rates of habitat loss in the tropics.

Habitat Suitability of Ixodes ricinus Ticks Carrying Pathogens in North-East Italy.

Ixodes ricinus ticks are ubiquitous in Europe, including in North-East Italy. These ticks are important vectors of several zoonotic pathogens of public health relevance. In this study, the habitat suitability range of I. ricinus ticks infected with zoonotic pathogens was predicted in North-East Italy, and relevant spatial predictors were identified. In 2015-2021, ticks were collected at 26 sampling sites in the study area. The collected ticks were screened for the presence of pathogens using PCR assays. For Borrelia, Rickettsia and Anaplasma/Ehrlichia species, data allowed for ecological niche modelling using Maxent. Environmental determinants potentially related to tick habitat suitability were used as model inputs. Predicted suitable habitat distributions revealed hotspots of the probability of pathogen presence in I. ricinus ticks mainly in the central and upper parts of the study area. Key environmental predictors were temperature, rainfall and altitude, and vegetation index for specific pathogens (Rickettsia and Anaplasma/Ehrlichia species). Increased risk of exposure to tick-borne pathogens upon tick bites in the predicted hotspot areas can, therefore, be expected. This provides useful information for public health risk managers in this and other similar regions.

Climate change will decrease the coverage of suitable niches for Asian medicinal orchid (Bulbophyllum odoratissimum) and its main phorophyte (Pistacia weinmannifolia).

Considering the global biodiversity crisis and the growing demand for medicinal plants, it is crucial to preserve therapeutically useful herbs. From a conservation management perspective under climate change, identifying areas that enable valuable natural resources to persist in the future is crucial. Machine learning-based models are commonly used to estimate the locations of climate refugia, which are critical for the effective species conservation. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of global warming on the epiphytic medicinal orchid-Bulbophyllum odoratissimum. Given how the long-term survival of plants inhabiting shrubs and trees depends on the availability of suitable phorophyets, in this research potential range changes in reported orchid plant hosts were evaluated. According to conducted analyses, global warming will cause a decline in the coverage of the suitable niches for B. odoratissimum and its main phorophyte. The most significant habitat loss in the case of the studied orchid and Pistacia weinmannifolia will be observed in the southern part of their geographical ranges and some new niches will simultaneously become available for these plants in the northern part. Climate change will significantly increase the overlap of geographical ranges of P. weinmannifolia and the orchid. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario trees will be available for more than 56% of the orchid population. Other analyzed phorophytes, will be available for B. odoratissimum to a very reduced extent, as orchids will only utilize these species as habitats only occasionally. This study provides data on the distribution of climatic refugia of B. odoratissimum under global warming. Moreover, this is the first evaluation of the future geographical ranges for its phorophytes. According to the conducted analyses, only one of the previously reported tree species which are inhabited by B. odoratissimum, P. weinmannifolia, can serve as a phorophyte for this orchid in the future. In this study, the areas designated as suitable for the occurrence of both orchids and their phorophytes should be considered priority conservation areas for the studied medicinal plants.

Ice age-driven range shifts of diploids and expanding autotetraploids of Biscutella laevigata within a conserved niche.

Early studies of the textbook mixed-ploidy system Biscutella laevigata highlighted diploids restricted to never-glaciated lowlands and tetraploids at high elevations across the European Alps, promoting the hypothesis that whole-genome duplication (WGD) is advantageous under environmental changes. Here we addressed long-held hypotheses on the role of hybridisation at the origin of the tetraploids, their single vs multiple origins, and whether a shift in climatic niche accompanied WGD. Climatic niche modelling together with spatial genetics and coalescent modelling based on ddRAD-seq genotyping of 17 diploid and 19 tetraploid populations was used to revisit the evolution of this species complex in space and time. Diploids differentiated into four genetic lineages corresponding to allopatric glacial refugia at the onset of the last ice age, whereas tetraploids displaying tetrasomic inheritance formed a uniform group that originated from southern diploids before the last glacial maximum. Derived from diploids occurring at high elevation, autotetraploids likely inherited their adaptation to high elevation rather than having evolved it through or after WGD. They further presented considerable postglacial expansion across the Alps and underwent admixture with diploids. Although the underpinnings of the successful expansion of autotetraploids remain elusive, differentiation in B. laevigata was chiefly driven by the glacial history of the Alps.

Distribution and diversity of ticks determined by environmental factors in Ningxia, China.

Ticks are important vectors of zoonotic pathogens, and represent an increasing threat for human and animal health. Considering the complex natural environments of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China, we expect the diverse tick species in this region. Here, we conduct a field survey on parasitic and host-seeking ticks. A total of 10,419 ticks were collected, which belonged to nine species of four genera. There were significant differences in terms of vegetation index, altitude, and seven climatic factors among the four tick genera -Hyalomma, Dermacentor, Haemaphysalis, and Ixodes, except between Haemaphysalis and Ixodes, where no significant differences were observed in these factors. The ecological niche modelling revealed that the suitable habitats for Hyalomma asiaticum was in the northwest Ningxia, with annual ground surface temperature as the most important factor. The suitable area for Dermacentor nuttalli was in the southwest and eastern regions of Ningxia with elevation as the highest contribution. D. silvarum was best suited to the southern Ningxia also with elevation as the most important factor. The four tick species including Haemaphysalis longicornis, Hae. qinghaiensis, Hae. japonica, and Ixodes persulcatus were best suited to the southernmost Ningxia with annual precipitation as the main factors for Hae. longicornis and elevation for the other three ticks. The results of predicted potential distribution of different tick species provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of ticks and tick-borne diseases in the region. Furthermore, the subsequent impacts of the Greening Program to regain forests and grasslands from former agricultural lands in Ningxia on tick population dynamics deserve further investigation.

Past, present and future of the two-spotted stink bug (Perillus bioculatus) in Europe revealed by citizen science.

The introduction of the Nearctic predaceous stink bug species, (Perillus bioculatus) was attempted multiple times in various countries throughout Europe to mitigate the damage caused by the invasive and harmful pest species, the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata). Though these attempts were thought to be unsuccessful for decades, more recent data elucidated that the species have established small self-sustaining populations in the Balkans Peninsula, Southern Russia, and Türkiye and recently began to expand. In the past years, the European range of the species reached Eastern Europe. After the first individuals were found in Hungary in October 2023 a citizen science campaign was launched to investigate the distribution of the species in the country. By June 2024 it became evident that the species is established throughout the country. Furthermore, observations regarding beetle larvae and moth caterpillars as alternative prey were reported supporting the previous assumptions that the naturalization and expansion of the species in Europe is facilitated by dietary drift. Here, we summarize the knowledge on the European presence of the two-spotted stink bug and formulate hypotheses regarding its future distribution and the impact of the species on the insect communities of the newly colonized areas.

Distribution of euptyctimous mite Phthiracarus longulus (Acari: Oribatida) under future climate change in the Palearctic.

The aim of this paper is to prepare, describe and discuss the models of the current and future distribution of Phthiracarus longulus (Koch, 1841) (Acari: Oribatida: Euptyctima), the oribatid mite species widely distributed within the Palearctic. We used the maximum entropy (MAXENT) method to predict its current and future (until the year 2100) distribution based on macroclimatic bio-variables. To our best knowledge, this is the first-ever prediction of distribution in mite species using environmental niche modelling. The main thermal variables that shape the current distribution of P. longulus are the temperature annual range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the annual mean temperature, while for precipitation variables the most important is precipitation of the driest quarter. Regardless of the climatic change scenario (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) our models show generally the northward shift of species range, and in Southern Europe the loss of most habitats with parallel upslope shift. According to our current model, the most of suitable habitats for P. longulus are located in the European part of Palearctic. In general, the species range is mostly affected in Europe. The most stable areas of P. longulus distribution were the Jutland with surrounding southern coasts of Scandinavia, islands of the Danish Straits and the region of Trondheim Fjord.

Modelling bluetongue and African horse sickness vector (Culicoides spp.) distribution in the Western Cape in South Africa using random forest machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Culicoides biting midges exhibit a global spatial distribution and are the main vectors of several viruses of veterinary importance, including bluetongue (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS). Many environmental and anthropological factors contribute to their ability to live in a variety of habitats, which have the potential to change over the years as the climate changes. Therefore, as new habitats emerge, the risk for new introductions of these diseases of interest to occur increases. The aim of this study was to model distributions for two primary vectors for BT and AHS (Culicoides imicola and Culicoides bolitinos) using random forest (RF) machine learning and explore the relative importance of environmental and anthropological factors in a region of South Africa with frequent AHS and BT outbreaks. METHODS: Culicoides capture data were collected between 1996 and 2022 across 171 different capture locations in the Western Cape. Predictor variables included climate-related variables (temperature, precipitation, humidity), environment-related variables (normalised difference vegetation index-NDVI, soil moisture) and farm-related variables (livestock densities). Random forest (RF) models were developed to explore the spatial distributions of C. imicola, C. bolitinos and a merged species map, where both competent vectors were combined. The maps were then compared to interpolation maps using the same capture data as well as historical locations of BT and AHS outbreaks. RESULTS: Overall, the RF models performed well with 75.02%, 61.6% and 74.01% variance explained for C. imicola, C. bolitinos and merged species models respectively. Cattle density was the most important predictor for C. imicola and water vapour pressure the most important for C. bolitinos. Compared to interpolation maps, the RF models had higher predictive power throughout most of the year when species were modelled individually; however, when merged, the interpolation maps performed better in all seasons except winter. Finally, midge densities did not show any conclusive correlation with BT or AHS outbreaks. CONCLUSION: This study yielded novel insight into the spatial abundance and drivers of abundance of competent vectors of BT and AHS. It also provided valuable data to inform mathematical models exploring disease outbreaks so that Culicoides-transmitted diseases in South Africa can be further analysed.

Exploring Paleogene Tibet's warm temperate environments through target enrichment and phylogenetic niche modelling of Himalayan spiny frogs (Paini, Dicroglossidae).

The Cenozoic topographic development of the Himalaya-Tibet orogen (HTO) substantially affected the paleoenvironment and biodiversity patterns of High Asia. However, concepts on the evolution and paleoenvironmental history of the HTO differ massively in timing, elevational increase and sequence of surface uplift of the different elements of the orogen. Using target enrichment of a large set of transcriptome-derived markers, ancestral range estimation and paleoclimatic niche modelling, we assess a recently proposed concept of a warm temperate paleo-Tibet in Asian spiny frogs of the tribe Paini and reconstruct their historical biogeography. That concept was previously developed in invertebrates. Because of their early evolutionary origin, low dispersal capacity, high degree of local endemism, and strict dependence on temperature and humidity, the cladogenesis of spiny frogs may echo the evolution of the HTO paleoenvironment. We show that diversification of main lineages occurred during the early to Mid-Miocene, while the evolution of alpine taxa started during the late Miocene/early Pliocene. Our distribution and niche modelling results indicate range shifts and niche stability that may explain the modern disjunct distributions of spiny frogs. They probably maintained their (sub)tropical or (warm)temperate preferences and moved out of the ancestral paleo-Tibetan area into the Himalaya as the climate shifted, as opposed to adapting in situ. Based on ancestral range estimation, we assume the existence of low-elevation, climatically suitable corridors across paleo-Tibet during the Miocene along the Kunlun, Qiangtang and/or Gangdese Shan. Our results contribute to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms and processes of faunal evolution in the HTO.

Spatial prioritization of dugong habitats in India can contribute towards achieving the 30 × 30 global biodiversity target.

Indian coastal waters are critical for dugong populations in the western Indian Ocean. Systematic spatial planning of dugong habitats can help to achieve biodiversity conservation and area-based protection targets in the region. In this study, we employed environmental niche modelling to predict suitable dugong habitats and identify influencing factors along its entire distribution range in Indian waters. We examined data on fishing pressures collected through systematic interview surveys, citizen-science data, and field surveys to demarcate dugong habitats with varying risks. Seagrass presence was the primary factor in determining dugong habitat suitability across the study sites. Other variables such as depth, bathymetric slope, and Euclidean distance from the shore were significant factors, particularly in predicting seasonal suitability. Predicted suitable habitats showed a remarkable shift from pre-monsoon in Palk Bay to post-monsoon in the Gulf of Mannar, indicating the potential of seasonal dugong movement. The entire coastline along the Palk Bay-Gulf of Mannar region was observed to be at high to moderate risk, including the Gulf of Mannar Marine National Park, a high-risk area. The Andaman Islands exhibited high suitability during pre- and post-monsoon season, whereas the Nicobar Islands were highly suitable for monsoon season. Risk assessment of modelled suitable areas revealed that < 15% of high-risk areas across Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Palk Bay and Gulf of Mannar, Tamil Nadu, fall within the existing protected areas. A few offshore reef islands are identified under high-risk zones in the Gulf of Kutch, Gujarat. We highlight the utility of citizen science and secondary data in performing large-scale spatial ecological analysis. Overall, identifying synoptic scale 'Critical Dugong Habitats' has positive implications for the country's progress towards achieving the global 30 × 30 target through systematic conservation planning.

Argopistes Motschulsky from Madagascar with descriptions of six new species (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae, Galerucinae, Alticini).

The revision of the flea beetle genus Argopistes Motschulsky, 1860 in Madagascar is provided. Six new species are described: Argopistesjanakmoravecorumsp. nov., A.laterosinuatussp. nov., and A.vadoni from the northern area; A.jenisisp. nov., A.keiserisp. nov., and A.seyrigisp. nov. from the central area. A new synonym of Argopistesbrunneus Weise, 1895 is established: A.sexguttatus Weise, 1895, syn. nov., since A.sexguttatus is shown to be a chromatic form of A.brunneus. A diagnostic key of the seven Malagasy Argopistes species is provided, with photographs of the habitus, median lobe of the aedeagus, and spermatheca. Finally, based on known occurrences, the current suitable areas for this flea beetle genus in Madagascar are estimated using Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) techniques.

Potential distribution modelling for Haemonchus contortus (Nematoda: Trichostrongylidae) in South America.

The species Haemonchus contortus occurs in many regions worldwide, mainly parasitising small ruminants and economically impacting animal production. Climate change is considered a driving force for the risk of diseases caused by helminths and can also affect relationships between parasites and their hosts, with the potential to cause losses in both animal production and biodiversity in general. The aim of this study was to model the potential distribution of H. contortus in South America. We used MaxEnt to perform the analyses and describe the contribution of important bioclimatic variables involved in the species distribution. Our results show that H. contortus colonised most of the areas with habitats that suit the species' environmental requirements and that this parasite presents habitat suitability in a future scenario. Understanding the effects of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of parasite species is essential for monitoring these pathogens, in addition to predicting the areas that tend to present future parasite outbreaks and identify opportunities to mitigate the impacts of the emergence of diseases caused by these organisms.

Future climatically suitable areas for bats in South Asia.

Climate change majorly impacts biodiversity in diverse regions across the world, including South Asia, a megadiverse area with heterogeneous climatic and vegetation regions. However, climate impacts on bats in this region are not well-studied, and it is unclear whether climate effects will follow patterns predicted in other regions. We address this by assessing projected near-future changes in climatically suitable areas for 110 bat species from South Asia. We used ensemble ecological niche modelling with four algorithms (random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and maximum entropy) to define climatically suitable areas under current conditions (1970-2000). We then extrapolated near future (2041-2060) suitable areas under four projected scenarios (combining two global climate models and two shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP2: middle-of-the-road and SSP5: fossil-fuelled development). Projected future changes in suitable areas varied across species, with most species predicted to retain most of the current area or lose small amounts. When shifts occurred due to projected climate change, new areas were generally northward of current suitable areas. Suitability hotspots, defined as regions suitable for >30% of species, were generally predicted to become smaller and more fragmented. Overall, climate change in the near future may not lead to dramatic shifts in the distribution of bat species in South Asia, but local hotspots of biodiversity may be lost. Our results offer insight into climate change effects in less studied areas and can inform conservation planning, motivating reappraisals of conservation priorities and strategies for bats in South Asia.

The spatiotemporal context of individual specialization in resource use and environmental associations.

1. Individual niche specialization is widespread in natural populations and has key implications for higher levels of biological organization. This phenomenon, however, has been primarily quantified in resource niche axes, overlooking individual variation in environmental associations (i.e. abiotic conditions organisms experience). 2. Here, we explore what we can learn from a multidimensional perspective of individual niche specialization that integrates resource use and environmental associations into a common framework. 3. By combining predictions from theory and simple simulations, we illustrate how (i) multidimensional intraspecific niche variation and (ii) the spatiotemporal context of interactions between conspecifics scale up to shape emergent patterns of the population niche. 4. Contemplating individual specialization as a multidimensional, unifying concept across biotic and abiotic niche axes is a fundamental step towards bringing this concept closer to the n-dimensional niche envisioned by Hutchinson.

1. A especialização individual de nicho é prevalente em populações naturais e tem implicações importantes para níveis de organização biológica superiores. Esse fenômeno, entretanto, tem sido principalmente quantificado em eixos do nicho que representam o uso de recursos, negligenciando a variação individual em associações ambientais (i.e. as condições abióticas que organismos experimentam). 2. Aqui, exploramos o que podemos aprender a partir de uma perspectiva multidimensional da especialização individual que integra o uso de recursos e associações ambientais em uma abordagem única. 3. Ao combinar predições da teoria e simulações simples, ilustramos como (i) a variação intraespecífica multidimensional de nicho e (ii) o contexto espaço­temporal de interações entre conspecíficos podem moldar padrões emergentes do nicho de populações. 4. Encarar a especialização individual como um conceito multidimensional e unificador em eixos do nicho bióticos e abióticos é um passo fundamental na direção de aproximar esse conceito do nicho n­dimensional idealizado por Hutchinson.

Using ecological niche modelling to prioritise areas for conservation of the critically endangered Buffy-Headed marmoset (Callithrix flaviceps).

Endemic to the Atlantic Forest in Southeastern Brazil, the critically endangered Buffy-Headed marmoset (Callithrix flaviceps) is lacking the required attention for effective conservation. We modelled its ecological niche with the main objectives of (1) defining suitable habitat and (2) prioritising areas for conservation and/or restoration. The current geographical range of Callithrix flaviceps in the Atlantic Forest of Southeast Brazil. We used Ensemble Species Distribution Modelling to define current habitat suitability considering four climate and two landscape variables. To identify areas to prioritise for conservation and/or restoration, we predicted future habitat suitability considering the intermediate (RCP4.5) and extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. Among the variables included to predict current species distribution, tree canopy cover, precipitation seasonality and temperature seasonality were the most important whereas digital elevation model and precipitation during the wettest month were the least important. Callithrix flaviceps was most likely to occur in areas with tree canopy cover >80%, high precipitation seasonality and temperature seasonality between 21 and 23°C. From the future suitability prediction maps, the Caparaó National Park stands out as a likely key area for the preservation of the species. Furthermore, high climatic suitability but low landscape suitability suggests that habitat restoration in 'Serra das Torres' (South of the current distribution area) might be a useful strategy. However, creating ecological corridors on the west side of Caparaó would be necessary to improve connectivity. More surveys within and beyond the current geographical range are required to define more precisely the distribution of the species. Our results support the notion that seasonality is important for Callithrix flaviceps and that as a montane species, it prefers colder environments and higher altitudes. Within both climate change scenarios, Caparaó National Park was predicted to be highly suitable, with a high probability of presence.

Global indicators of the environmental impacts of invasive alien species and their information adequacy.

Monitoring the extent to which invasive alien species (IAS) negatively impact the environment is crucial for understanding and mitigating biological invasions. Indeed, such information is vital for achieving Target 6 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. However, to-date indicators for tracking the environmental impacts of IAS have been either lacking or insufficient. Capitalizing on advances in data availability and impact assessment protocols, we developed environmental impact indicators to track realized and potential impacts of IAS. We also developed an information status indicator to assess the adequacy of the data underlying the impact indicators. We used data on 75 naturalized amphibians from 82 countries to demonstrate the indicators at a global scale. The information status indicator shows variation in the reliability of the data and highlights areas where absence of impact should be interpreted with caution. Impact indicators show that growth in potential impacts are dominated by predatory species, while potential impacts from both predation and disease transmission are distributed worldwide. Using open access data, the indicators are reproducible and adaptable across scales and taxa and can be used to assess global trends and distributions of IAS, assisting authorities in prioritizing control efforts and identifying areas at risk of future invasions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Insight into the phylogeny and responses of species from the genus Sergia (Campanulaceae) to the climate changes predicted for the Mountains of Central Asia (a world biodiversity hotspot).

BACKGROUND: Together with other elevated areas, the Mountains of Central Asia are significantly threatened by ongoing climate change. The presence of refuges during the glaciations makes the region extremely rich in species, especially endemic ones. However, the limited potential for colonisation of other habitats makes rocky-related species with 'island-like' distribution, particularly vulnerable to climate change. To understand the processes underlying species response to climate warming, we assessed differences in ecological niches and phylogenetic relationship of two geographically disjunctive alpine species belonging to the genus Sergia. The taxa are considered Tertiary relicts, endemic to the Tian Shan and Pamir-Alai Mountains. To illustrate range dynamics and differences in occupied niches of Sergia species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling of current and future distribution. Whereas, to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship within and between Sergia and other related Campanulaceae species from the region we used molecular data (ITS, cpDNA, DArTseq-derived SNPs). RESULTS: The results reveal that the genus Sergia is a polyphyletic group, and its representatives differ geographically, ecologically and genetically. Both S. regelii and S. sewerzowii constitute a common clade with Asyneuma group, however, S. sewerzowii is more closely related to Campanula alberti (a species that has never previously been considered closely related to the genus Asyneuma or Sergia) than to S. regelii. Sergia sewerzowii is adapted to lower elevations with higher temperatures, while S. regelii prefers higher elevations with lower temperatures. The future distribution models demonstrate a dramatic loss of S. regelii range with a shift to suitable habitats in higher elevations, while the potential range of S. sewerzowii increases and shifts to the north. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that S. regelii and S. sewerzowii have a long and independent evolution history. Sergia regelii and S. sewerzowii significantly differ in realised niches. These differences are mirrored in the response of the studied endemics to future climate warming. As suitable habitats shrink, rapid changes in distribution can lead to species' range loss, which is also directly related to declines in genetic variability. The outcomes of this paper will help to more precisely assess the impact of climate changes on rocky-related plant species found in this world's biodiversity hotspot.

Locustamigratoria (L.) (Orthoptera) in a warming world: unravelling the ecological consequences of climate change using GIS.

The migratory locust, Locustamigratoria (L.), a significant grasshopper species known for its ability to form large swarms and cause extensive damage to crops and vegetation, is subject to the influence of climate change. This research paper employs geographic information system (GIS) and MaxEnt ecological modelling techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution patterns of L.migratoria. Occurrence data and environmental variables are collected and analysed to create predictive models for the current and future distribution of the species. The study highlights the crucial role of climate factors, particularly temperature and precipitation, in determining the locust's distribution. The MaxEnt models exhibit high-performance indicators, accurately predicting the potential habitat suitability of L.migratoria. Additionally, specific bioclimatic variables, such as mean temperature and annual precipitation, are identified as significant factors influencing the species' presence. The generated future maps indicate how this species will invade new regions especially in Europe. Such results predict the risk of this destructive species for many agriculture communities as a direct result of a warming world. The research provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between locust distribution and environmental factors, enabling the development of effective strategies for locust management and early warning systems to mitigate the impact on agriculture and ecosystems.

Identifying a potentially invasive population in the native range of a species: The enlightenment from the phylogeography of the yellow spotted stink bug, Erthesina fullo (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae).

The yellow spotted stink bug (YSSB), Erthesina fullo (Thunberg, 1783) is an important Asian pest that has recently successfully invaded Europe and an excellent material for research on the initial stage of biological invasion. Here, we reported the native evolutionary history, recent invasion history, and potential invasion threats of YSSB for the first time based on population genetic methods [using double digest restriction-site associated DNA (ddRAD) data and mitochondrial COI and CYTB] and ecological niche modelling. The results showed that four lineages (east, west, southwest, and Hainan Island) were established in the native range with a strong east-west differentiation phylogeographical structure, and the violent climate fluctuation might cause population divergence during the Middle and Upper Pleistocene. In addition, land bridges and monsoon promote dispersal and directional genetic exchanging between island populations and neighboring continental populations. The east lineage (EA) was identified as the source of invasion in Albania. EA had the widest geographical distribution among all other lineages, with a star-like haplotype network with the main haplotype as the core. It also had a rapid population expansion history, indicating that the source lineage might have stronger diffusion ability and adaptability. Our findings provided a significant biological basis for fine tracking of invasive source at the lineage or population level and promote early invasion warning of potential invasive species on a much subtler lineage level.

Impacts of behaviour and acclimation of metabolic rate on energetics in sheltered ectotherms: a climate change perspective.

Many ectothermic organisms counter harsh abiotic conditions by seeking refuge in underground retreats. Variations in soil hydrothermal properties within these retreats may impact their energy budget, survival and population dynamics. This makes retreat site choice a critical yet understudied component of their strategies for coping with climate change. We used a mechanistic modelling approach to explore the implications of behavioural adjustments and seasonal acclimation of metabolic rate on retreat depth and the energy budget of ectotherms, considering both current and future climate conditions. We used a temperate amphibian, the alpine newt (Ichthyosaura alpestris), as a model species. Our simulations predict an interactive influence of different thermo- and hydroregulatory strategies on the vertical positioning of individuals in underground refuges. The adoption of a particular strategy largely determines the impact of climate change on retreat site choice. Additionally, we found that, given the behavioural thermoregulation/hydroregulation and metabolic acclimation patterns considered, behaviour within the retreat has a greater impact on ectotherm energetics than acclimation of metabolic rate under different climate change scenarios. We conclude that further empirical research aimed at determining ectotherm behavioural strategies during both surface activity and inactivity is needed to understand their population dynamics and species viability under climate change.