Insects decline with host plants but coextinctions may be limited.

The loss of wild plant populations is often assumed to lead to coextinctions, particularly among specialized insects. Despite global declines in both terrestrial insects and plants, the relationship between these trends remains elusive. Here, we address this gap by analyzing the relationship between population trends of insects and their host plants in Germany, encompassing over 150,000 interactions among 3,429 plant and 2,239 insect species, including both pollinators (bees and hoverflies) and herbivores (butterflies, moths, and sawflies). Our findings reveal parallel population declines of insects and host plants across taxa, except for more generalist hoverflies. However, simulated extinctions of threatened host plants led to limited coextinctions in insects. Notably, 96% of insect species retained over 25% of their host plant diversity, and among those, 98% still retained at least one common species in their interaction portfolio. Even highly specialized insects may persist because they tend to specialize in nonthreatened plant species. While uncertainties remain regarding the interchangeability of host plants, our findings suggest that insect coextinctions are far from a 1:1 match with plant extinctions. Our findings suggest the declining abundance of many plant species can contribute to insect decline yet challenge the common assumption that the extinction of threatened plant species will necessarily trigger an imminent extinction wave of associated insects. Interaction networks seem to be more resilient.

Population monitoring and conservation implications of intra- and interspecific nest occupation rates in swallows.

With the exception of a few groups of birds, such as large raptors and colonial seabirds, direct counts of nests cannot be conducted over very large areas for most of the abundant and widely distributed species, and thus indirect methods are used to estimate their relative abundances and population sizes. However, many species of the Family Hirundinidae (swallows and martins) build their mud nests in discrete, predictable and accessible sites, which are reused across years. Therefore, the direct count of active nests could constitute a reliable method for estimating breeding population sizes and their changes at large spatial and temporal scales. We illustrate the feasibility of this monitoring approach through a single year survey of >2700 nests of three coexisting Old-World species, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), the red-rumped swallow (Cecropis daurica), and the crag martin (Ptyonoprogne rupestris), distributed across Portugal and Spain. Our results revealed changes in the use of nesting substrates and increases in interspecific nest usurpation rates over recent decades. While 56% of the nests of C. daurica were located in rocks five decades ago, almost 100% are nowadays located in anthropogenic substrates such as bridges, road culverts, and abandoned buildings, which could have favored the range expansion of this species. Nest occupation rates were surprisingly low (12% in C. daurica, 21% in H. rustica, and 37% in P. rupestris), and the proportion of abandoned nesting sites was very high (65% in C. daurica, 50% in H. rustica, and 27% in P. rupestris). Abandonment rates reflect the population decline reported for H. rustica. Notably, the usurpation of nests of C. daurica by house sparrows Passer domesticus, which is the main cause of breeding failure, has increased from 2.4% in 1976-1979 to 34.7% of the nests nowadays. The long-term monitoring of nests may constitute a reliable and affordable method, with the help of citizen science, for assessing changes in breeding population sizes and conservation threats of these and other mud-nest building hirundines worldwide.

Long COVID symptoms and demographic associations: A retrospective case series study using healthcare application data.

Objectives: To investigate long COVID (LC) symptoms self-reported via a digital application. Explore associations between various demographic factors and intensity of LC symptoms. Design: A retrospective case series study. We analysed self-reported symptoms from 1008 individuals with LC between November 30, 2020, and March 23, 2022. Setting: England and Wales. Participants: Individuals with LC using the healthcare application in 31 post-COVID-19 clinics and self-reporting LC symptoms. Main outcome measures: Highest reported LC symptoms, associations with demographic factors and intensity of symptoms. Results: 109 symptom categories were identified, with pain (26.5%), neuropsychological issues (18.4%), fatigue (14.3%) and dyspnoea (7.4%) the most prevalent. The intensity of reported symptoms increased by 3.3% per month since registration. Age groups 68-77 and 78-87 experienced higher symptom intensity (32.8% and 86% higher, respectively) compared to the 18-27 age group. Women reported 9.2% more intense symptoms than men, and non-white individuals with LC reported 23.5% more intense symptoms than white individuals with LC. Higher education levels (national vocational qualification (NVQ) 3 to NVQ 5) were associated with less symptom intensity (27.7%, 62.8% and 44.7% less, respectively) compared to the least educated (NVQ 1-2). People in less deprived areas had less intense symptoms than those in the most deprived area. No significant association was found between index of multiple deprivation (IMD) decile and number of symptoms. Conclusion: Treatment plans must prioritise addressing prevalent LC symptoms; we recommend sustained support for LC clinics. Demographic factors significantly influence symptom severity, underlining the need for targeted interventions. These findings can inform healthcare policies to better manage LC.

Incorporating weather in counts and trends of migrating Common Nighthawks.

Effective conservation planning for species of concern requires long-term monitoring data that can accurately estimate population trends. Supplemental or alternative methods for estimating population trends are necessary for species that are poorly sampled by traditional breeding bird survey methods. Counts of migrating birds are commonly used to assess raptor population trends and could be useful for additional taxa that migrate diurnally and are difficult to monitor during the breeding season. In North America, the Common Nighthawk (Chordeiles minor) is challenging to detect during comprehensive dawn surveys like the North American Breeding Bird Survey and is considered a species of conservation concern because of steep population declines across its range. We conducted standardized evening counts of migrating Common Nighthawks at a fixed survey location along western Lake Superior each autumn from 2008 to 2022. To document peak migration activity, counts spanned ~3 hours each evening from mid-August to early September for a mean of 19.4 ± 2.4 days. These count data were then used to assess the effects of weather on daily counts and high-count days and to calculate population trends over this 15-year period. We used generalized linear mixed effects models to determine the relationship between daily counts and high-count days (i.e., ≥1000 migrating nighthawks) and weather variables. Additionally, using our 15-year dataset, we calculated a geometric mean passage rate that accounted for annual differences in weather to estimate count trends. Annual counts averaged ~18,000 (min = 2514, max = 32,837) individuals and high-count days occurred 56 times throughout the course of the study. Model results indicated lighter, westerly winds and warmer temperatures were associated with higher daily counts and greater probability of a large migratory flight. Results from the trend analyses suggest stable or non-significantly increasing trends for Common Nighthawks during this monitoring period; however, the trend models explained a relatively low percentage of the variation in the counts. Results from a power analysis suggest that continued monitoring efforts and adjustments with weather covariates will be necessary to effectively use visible migration count data to estimate Common Nighthawk trends. Establishing annual monitoring programs that use standardized visual counts to document Common Nighthawk migration at key sites across North America may provide supplemental information useful for population trend estimates of this species. Therefore, we advocate for the use of visible migration counts to monitor Common Nighthawks in North America and emphasize the value of long-term monitoring efforts.

Des données de suivi à long terme permettant de calculer avec précision les tendances démographiques sont garantes d'une planification réussie de la conservation d'espèces préoccupantes. Des méthodes complémentaires ou alternatives d'estimation des tendances démographiques sont nécessaires dans le cas d'espèces mal échantillonnées par les méthodes traditionnelles de relevé d'oiseaux nicheurs. Le dénombrement d'oiseaux migrateurs est couramment utilisé pour évaluer la tendance des populations de rapaces et pourrait servir pour d'autres taxons qui migrent de jour et sont difficiles à suivre pendant la saison de nidification. En Amérique du Nord, l'Engoulevent d'Amérique (Chordeiles minor) est difficile à détecter au cours de relevés généraux réalisés à l'aube, tel le Relevé des oiseaux nicheurs d'Amérique du Nord (BBS), et est considéré comme une espèce dont la conservation est préoccupante en raison de la baisse marquée de ses effectifs dans toute son aire de répartition. Nous avons effectué des comptages en soirée standardisés d'engoulevents en migration à un site fixe localisé du côté ouest du lac Supérieur, chaque automne de 2008 à 2022. Afin de caractériser le pic d'activité migratoire, les comptages ont duré ~3 heures chaque soir de la mi-août au début de septembre, durant 19,4 ± 2,4 jours en moyenne. Ces données ont ensuite servi pour évaluer l'effet des conditions météorologiques sur les comptages quotidiens et les jours d'activité migratoire élevée et calculer la tendance démographique au cours de ces 15 ans. Nous avons utilisé des modèles linéaires généralisés à effets mixtes pour déterminer la relation entre les comptages quotidiens et les jours d'activité migratoire élevée (c.-à-d. ≥1000 engoulevents) et les variables météorologiques. En outre, en utilisant notre jeu de données sur 15 ans, nous avons calculé la moyenne géométrique du taux de passage tenant compte des différences météorologiques annuelles afin d'estimer la tendance des comptages. La moyenne des comptages annuels était de ~18 000 (min = 2514, max = 32 837) individus et nous avons observé 56 cas d'activité migratoire élevée au cours de l'étude. Les résultats du modèle ont indiqué que des vents plus légers et de l'ouest, et des températures plus chaudes étaient associés à des comptages quotidiens plus élevés et à une plus grande probabilité d'une activité migratoire importante. Les résultats de l'analyse des tendances indiquent que les engoulevents ont montré une tendance stable ou en augmentation non significative au cours de cette période de suivi; cependant, les modèles de tendances n'ont expliqué qu'un pourcentage relativement faible de la variation des comptages. Les résultats d'une analyse de puissance révèlent que des suivis réguliers et des ajustements avec des covariables météorologiques seront nécessaires pour utiliser efficacement les données de comptages visuels réalisés en migration afin d'estimer la tendance de l'Engoulevent d'Amérique. La mise en place d'un programme de suivis annuels fondés sur des comptages visuels standardisés destiné à caractériser la migration de l'Engoulevent d'Amérique sur des sites clés en Amérique du Nord pourrait fournir des informations supplémentaires utiles pour estimer les tendances démographiques de cette espèce. Par conséquent, nous préconisons l'utilisation de comptages visuels en migration pour suivre l'Engoulevent d'Amérique en Amérique du Nord et soulignons la valeur de suivis à long terme.

Woody plant encroachment drives population declines in 20% of common open ecosystem bird species.

Grassy ecosystems cover more than 40% of the world's terrestrial surface, supporting crucial ecosystem services and unique biodiversity. These ecosystems have experienced major losses from conversion to agriculture with the remaining fragments threatened by global change. Woody plant encroachment, the increase in woody cover threatening grassy ecosystems, is a major global change symptom, shifting the composition, structure, and function of plant communities with concomitant effects on all biodiversity. To identify generalisable impacts of encroachment on biodiversity, we urgently need broad-scale studies on how species respond to woody cover change. Here, we make use of bird atlas, woody cover change data (between 2007 and 2016) and species traits, to assess: (1) population trends and woody cover responses using dynamic occupancy models; (2) how outcomes relate to habitat, diet and nesting traits; and (3) predictions of future occupancy trends, for 191 abundant, southern African bird species. We found that: (1) 63% (121) of species showed a decline in occupancy, with 18% (34) of species' declines correlated with increasing woody cover (i.e. losers). Only 2% (4) of species showed increasing population trends linked with increased woody cover (i.e. winners); (2) Open habitat specialist, invertivorous, ground nesting birds were the most frequent losers, however, we found no definitive evidence that the selected traits could predict outcomes; and (3) We predict open habitat loser species will take on average 52 years to experience 50% population declines with current rates of encroachment. Our results bring attention to concerning region-wide declining bird population trends and highlight woody plant encroachment as an important driver of bird population dynamics. Importantly, these findings should encourage improved management and restoration of our remaining grassy ecosystems. Furthermore, our findings show the importance of lands beyond protected areas for biodiversity, and the urgent need to mitigate the impacts of woody plant encroachment on bird biodiversity.

Toward a globally inclusive knowledge base on adolescent development: A charge to the Majority World and a plea for epistemic and paradigmatic pluralism.

Ongoing internal dialog on the limitations of Euro-American developmental science has opened up space to explore how best to work toward a knowledge base that is adequately representative of the values, cultures, epistemic traditions, and lived experiences of peoples, nations, and regions around the world. So far, recommendations for the advancement of a global developmental science have focused preponderantly on (1) methodological considerations and (2) an architecture to support cross-disciplinary international collaborative inquiry and/or enhance research capacity building for Majority World scholars and institutions. In this commentary, instead of focusing on specific contributions to the Special Issue, I make a case for an explicit commitment to field-building within Majority World contexts as the primary gap-closing path toward the cultivation of a global developmental science knowledge base. I begin with a worldwide population analysis to demonstrate the magnitude of geopolitical, eco-cultural, and epistemic imbalances inherent in the shaping of Euro-American developmental science. In tandem with the Special Issue's central theme, I draw on scholarship from the fields of history, sociology, and political economy to link decolonial theory to the advancement of a global developmental science. Finally, I explore ways in which exemplary research establishments already engaged in prolific inquiry and research training may be ideal candidates to support field-building and help to advance multidisciplinary inquiry within an ethos of epistemic and methodological pluralism.

The changing incidence of childhood epilepsy in Finland.

INTRODUCTION: to investigate the childhood epilepsy incidence, population trends, associated factors, and validate the national population registers. METHODS: a comprehensive comparative analysis of childhood epilepsy in the population during two distinct time intervals using medical records, appropriate national medical and population registers, and two random samples for control. RESULTS: In 1961-1964, the average incidence of epilepsy was 38/100,000 and during 1991-2000 65.9 (95 % CI 59.6 to 72.2) and 65.6/100,000 person-years after adjustment for the European Standard Population. This increase was significant (p<0.0001) as was a decline (p<0.003) from 1991 to 1995 to 1996-2000. The decline in incidence for girls occurred at a younger age compared to boys. Epilepsy cases associated with prenatal and perinatal factors were 50 % lower in 1991-2000 than in 1961-1964, especially related to asphyxia, infections, pre-eclampsia, and imminent abortion. The national Register for Healthcare independently identified 94.5 % of relevant cases (University Hospital alone 81.2 %, and Drug Register alone 74.3 %). DISCUSSION: Over the past five decades, the incidence rate of childhood epilepsy has exhibited a dynamic pattern, with a notable increase until the 1990's, followed by a stabilization at an incidence rate of approximately 60-70 per 100,000 person-years. Our findings, in line with other recent Finnish research, support a significant decrease in incidence since the mid-1990's. The underlying reasons for the increase and decrease remain unclear. Finnish national registers for epilepsy have established themselves as highly dependable resources for conducting epidemiological research. CONCLUSION: Childhood epilepsy incidence in Finland is similar to other industrialized countries, but there are signs of a declining trend emerging.

Duration and variability of spring green-up mediate population consequences of climate change.

Single phenological measures, like the average rate of phenological advancement, may be insufficient to explain how climate change is driving trends in animal populations. Here, we develop a multifactorial concept of spring phenology-including the onset of spring, spring duration, interannual variability, and their temporal changes-as a driver for population dynamics of migratory terrestrial species in seasonal environments. Using this conceptual model, we found that effects of advancing spring phenology on animal populations may be buffered or amplified depending on the duration and interannual variability of spring green-up, and those effects are modified by evolutionary and plastic adaptations of species. Furthermore, we compared our modelling results with empirical data on normalized difference vegetation index-based spring green-up phenology and population trends of 106 European landbird finding similar associations. We conclude how phenological changes are expected to affect migratory bird populations across Europe and identify regions that are particularly prone to suffer population declines.

Fair concordance between Google Trends and Danish ornithologists in the assessment of temporal trends in Danish bird populations highlights the informational value of big data.

The ongoing depletion of natural systems and associated biodiversity decline is of growing international concern. Climate change is expected to exacerbate anthropogenic impacts on wild populations. The scale of impact on ecosystems and ecosystem services will be determined by the impact on a multitude of species and functional groups, which due to their biology and numbers are difficult to monitor. The IPCC has argued that surveillance or monitoring is critical and proposed that monitoring systems should be developed, which not only track developments but also function as "early warning systems." Human populations are already generating large continuous datasets on multiple taxonomic groups through internet searches. These time series could in principle add substantially to current monitoring if they reflect true changes in the natural world. We here examined whether information on internet search frequencies delivered by the Danish population and captured by Google Trends (GT) appropriately informs on population trends in 106 common Danish bird species. We compared the internet search activity with independent equivalent population trend assessments from the Danish Ornithological Society (BirdLife Denmark/DOF). We find a fair concordance between the GT trends and the assessments by DOF. A substantial agreement can be obtained by omitting species without clear temporal trends. Our findings suggest that population trend proxies from internet search frequencies can be used to supplement existing wildlife population monitoring and to ask questions about an array of ecological phenomena, which potentially can be integrated into an early warning system for biodiversity under climate change.

Regional differences in thermoregulation between two European butterfly communities.

Understanding how different organisms cope with changing temperatures is vital for predicting future species' distributions and highlighting those at risk from climate change. As ectotherms, butterflies are sensitive to temperature changes, but the factors affecting butterfly thermoregulation are not fully understood. We investigated which factors influence thermoregulatory ability in a subset of the Mediterranean butterfly community. We measured adult thoracic temperature and environmental temperature (787 butterflies; 23 species) and compared buffering ability (defined as the ability to maintain a consistent body temperature across a range of air temperatures) and buffering mechanisms to previously published results from Great Britain. Finally, we tested whether thermoregulatory ability could explain species' demographic trends in Catalonia. The sampled sites in each region differ climatically, with higher temperatures and solar radiation but lower wind speeds in the Catalan sites. Both butterfly communities show nonlinear responses to temperature, suggesting a change in behaviour from heat-seeking to heat avoidance at approximately 22°C. However, the communities differ in the use of buffering mechanisms, with British populations depending more on microclimates for thermoregulation compared to Catalan populations. Contrary to the results from British populations, we did not find a relationship between region-wide demographic trends and butterfly thermoregulation, which may be due to the interplay between thermoregulation and the habitat changes occurring in each region. Thus, although Catalan butterfly populations seem to be able to thermoregulate successfully at present, evidence of heat avoidance suggests this situation may change in the future.

Temporal trends of land-use favourability for the strongly declining little bustard: assessing the role of protected areas.

The little bustard (Tetrax tetrax) is a steppe bird strongly and negatively influenced by agricultural intensification in Europe. Here, we use the little bustard as a model species to examine how favourability (relative occurrence likelihood of a species based on environmental characteristics, such as habitat availability) varies regionally with degree of protection in north-western Spain. The Natura2000 network is one of the main biodiversity conservation tools of the European Union, aiming to protect areas hosting species of conservation concern from unfavourable land-use changes. The network covers many landscapes across the continent, including farmland. Additionally, we examine the relationship between trends in land-use favourability and little bustard population trends over a decade in the Nature Reserve of Lagunas de Villafáfila, a protected area also in the Natura2000 network where active and intense management focused on steppe bird conservation is carried out. Favourability was much greater in Villafáfila than in both protected areas with lower degree of protection and in non-protected areas. Land-use favourability increased slightly between 2011 and 2020 both in and out of protected areas, whereas little bustard populations declined sharply in that period, even in Villafáfila. Spatial variations in little bustard abundance within Villafáfila depended on social attraction (increasing with the number of neighbouring males) but not significantly on small-scale variations in land-use favourability. These results suggest that land-use management in Natura2000 areas needs to be more conservation-focused, favouring natural and seminatural habitats and traditional farming practices to improve land-use favourability for little bustards and other steppe birds. Additional factors, such as field-level agricultural management or social interaction variables that may cause an Allee effect, should be incorporated in little bustard favourability models to improve their use in conservation planning.

Effects of human depopulation and warming climate on bird populations in Japan.

Quantifying biodiversity trends in economically developed countries, where depopulation, associated secondary succession, and climate warming are ongoing, provides insights for global biodiversity conservation in the 21st century. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of secondary succession and climate warming on species' population trends at a national scale. We estimated the population trends of common breeding bird species in Japan and examined the associations between the overall population trend and species traits with the nationwide bird count data on 47 species collected from 2009 to 2020. The overall population trend varied among species. Four species populations increased moderately, 18 were stable, and 11 declined moderately. Population trends for 13 species were uncertain. The difference in overall trends among the species was associated with their habitat group and temperature niche. Species with relatively low-temperature niches experienced more pronounced declines. Multispecies indicators showed a moderate increase in forest specialists and moderate declines in forest generalists (species that use both forests and open habitats) and open-habitat specialists. Forest generalists and open-habitat specialists also declined more rapidly at sites with more abandoned farmland. All species groups showed an accelerated decline or decelerated increase after 2015. These results suggest that common breeding birds in Japan are facing deteriorating trends as a result of nationwide changes in land use and climate. Future land-use planning and policies should consider the benefits of passive rewilding for forest specialists and active restoration measures (e.g., low-intensive forestry and agriculture) for nonforest specialists to effectively conserve biodiversity in the era of human depopulation and climate warming.

Efectos de la despoblación humana y el calentamiento climático sobre las poblaciones de aves en Japón Resumen La cuantificación de las tendencias poblacionales en los países económicamente desarrollados, en donde la despoblación (asociada a la sucesión secundaria) y el cambio climático son continuos, proporciona información para la conservación mundial de la biodiversidad en el siglo XXI. Sin embargo, pocos estudios han evaluado el impacto de la sucesión secundaria y el calentamiento climático sobre las tendencias poblacionales a escala nacional. Usamos un conteo nacional de aves de 47 especies recolectado entre 2009 y 2020 para estimar las tendencias poblacionales de especies de aves en Japón y examinamos las asociaciones entre la tendencia poblacional general y las características de la especie. La tendencia poblacional general varió entre especies. Las poblaciones de cuatro especies incrementaron con moderación, 18 permanecieron estables y once declinaron con moderación. Las tendencias poblacionales para 13 especies no fueron claras. La diferencia entre las tendencias generales de las especies estuvo asociada con su grupo de hábitat y el nicho térmico. Las especies con un nicho térmico relativamente bajo experimentaron una declinación más pronunciada. Los indicadores multiespecie mostraron un incremento moderado en las especialistas de bosque y una declinación moderada en las generalistas de bosque (especies que usan los bosques y hábitats abiertos) y las especialistas de hábitat abierto. Las generalistas de bosque y las especialistas de hábitat abierto también declinaron con mayor rapidez en los sitios con más suelo agrícola abandonado. Todos los grupos de especies mostraron una declinación acelerada o un incremento desacelerado después de 2015. Estos resultados sugieren que las aves reproductoras comunes en Japón están sufriendo tendencias declinantes como resultado de los cambios en el uso de suelo y el clima a nivel nacional. Las políticas y planeaciones de uso de suelo deben considerar a futuro los beneficios de la recuperación pasiva para las especialistas de bosque y las medidas activas de restauración (como la silvicultura y agricultura de baja intensidad) para las especialistas que no son de bosque y así conservar de manera efectiva la biodiversidad en la era de despoblación humana y calentamiento climático.

Wood warbler population dynamics in response to mast seeding regimes in Europe.

Mast seeding is the episodic, massive production of plant seeds synchronized over large areas. The resulting superabundance of seeds represents a resource pulse that can profoundly affect animal populations across trophic levels. Following years of high seed production, the abundance of both seed consumers and their predators increase. Higher predator abundance leads to increased predation pressure across the trophic web, impacting nonseed consumers such as the wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix through increased nest predation after tree mast years. Over the past 30 years, the frequency of tree seed masts has increased, while wood warbler populations have declined in several regions of Europe. We hypothesized that increasing mast frequencies may have contributed to the observed population declines by creating suboptimal breeding conditions in years after masting. We measured reproductive output in four study areas in central Europe, which was between 0.61 and 1.24 fledglings lower in the years following masting than nonmasting. For each study area, we used matrix population models to predict population trends based on the estimated reproductive output and the local mast frequencies. We then compared the predicted with the observed population trends to assess if the frequency of mast years had contributed to the population dynamics. In Wielkopolska National Park (PL) and Hessen (DE), masting occurred on average only every 4 years and populations were stable or nearly so, whereas in Jura (CH) and Bialowieza National Park (PL), masting occurred every 2 and 2.5 years, respectively, and populations were declining. The simple matrix population models predicted the relative difference among local population trends over the past 10-20 years well, suggesting that the masting frequency may partly explain regional variation in population trends. Simulations suggest that further increases in mast frequency will lead to further declines in wood warbler populations. We show that changes in a natural process, such as mast seeding, may contribute to the decline in animal populations through cascading effects.

Temporal changes to adult case fatality risk of COVID-19 after vaccination in England between May 2020 and February 2022: a national surveillance study.

OBJECTIVES: Risk of death after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has fallen during the pandemic, largely due to immunity from vaccination. In England, the timing and extent of this reduction varied due to staggered eligibility during the primary vaccination campaign, based on age and clinical risk group. Duration of protection is less well understood. Our objective was to estimate the case fatality risk (CFR) by vaccination status and time since last dose during a period of widespread community testing, to better understand the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and duration of protection. DESIGN: SARS-CoV-2 cases diagnosed between May 2020 and February 2022 were linked to vaccine records from the National Immunisation Management System. CFR was calculated as the proportion of cases that died of COVID-19 per the death certificate, aggregated by week of specimen and stratified by 10-year age band and vaccination status. SETTING: England, UK. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 10,616,148 SARS-CoV-2 cases, aged ≥18 years, recorded by England's laboratory reporting system. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Case fatality risk of COVID-19, stratified by age band and vaccination status. RESULTS: Overall, a reduction in CFR was observed for all age bands, with a clear temporal link to when the age group became eligible for primary vaccination and then the first booster. CFR increased with age (0.3% 50-59 years; 1.2% 60-69; 4.7% 70-79; 16.3% 80+) and was highest in the unvaccinated - albeit a reduction was observed over time. The highest CFR was seen in the unvaccinated 80+ group prior to vaccination rollout (30.6%). CFR was consistently lowest in vaccinated populations within 6 months of last dose, yet increased after over 6 months elapsed since last dose, across all age bands. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 CFR reduced after vaccination, with the lowest CFR seen across all age bands when vaccinated up to 6 months prior to specimen date. This provides some evidence for continued booster doses in older age groups.

Assessing trends in population size of three unmarked species: A comparison of a multi-species N-mixture model and random encounter models.

Estimation of changes in abundances and densities is essential for the research, management, and conservation of animal populations. Recently, technological advances have facilitated the surveillance of animal populations through the adoption of passive sensors, such as camera traps (CT). Several methods, including the random encounter model (REM), have been developed for estimating densities of unmarked populations but require additional information. Hierarchical abundance models, such as the N-mixture model (NMM), can estimate abundances without performing additional fieldwork but do not explicitly estimate the area effectively sampled. This obscures the interpretation of its densities and requires its users to focus on relative measures of abundance instead. Hence, the main objective of our study is to evaluate if REM and NMM yield consistent results qualitatively. Therefore, we compare relative trends: (i) between species, (ii) between years and (iii) across years obtained from annual density/abundance estimates of three species (fox, wild boar and red deer) in central Spain monitored by a camera trapping network for five consecutive winter periods. We reveal that NMM and REM provided density estimates in the same order of magnitude for wild boar, but not for foxes and red deer. Assuming a Poisson detection process in the NMM was important to control for inflation of abundance estimates for frequently detected species. Both methods consistently ranked density/abundance across species (between species trend), but did not always agree on relative ranks of yearly estimates within a single population (between years trend), nor on its linear population trends across years (across years trend). Our results suggest that relative trends are generally consistent when the range of variability is large, but can become inconsistent when the range of variability is smaller.

Decline and Extinction of the Italian Agile Frog Rana latastei from Core Areas of Its Range.

Detecting the trends of species and populations is fundamental to identifying taxa with high conservation priority. Unfortunately, long-term monitoring programs are challenging and often lacking. The Italian agile frog Rana latastei is endemic to Northern Italy and adjacent countries, is considered vulnerable by the IUCN, and is protected at the European level. However, quantitative estimates of its decline are extremely scarce. In this study, we document the trends in abundance and distribution of Rana latastei within Monza Park, which currently represents the area closer to the type locality of the species and holds unique genetic features. Wetlands within the park were monitored from 2000 to 2023; counts of egg clutches were taken as a measure of reproductive output and the abundance of breeding females. In 2000, the species occurred over a significant proportion of the park. Total abundance showed strong yearly variation but remained rather constant from 2000 to 2019. However, Rana latastei disappeared from the park around 2021 and was never detected in 2022-2023. The decline is probably related to the joint effect of multiple factors, including the conversion of breeding sites for farming, inappropriate water management, invasive alien species, and severe drought. The local extinction of Rana latastei occurred despite legal protection, highlighting the need for more effective and stringent tools for the conservation of European biodiversity.

Diversified farms bolster forest-bird populations despite ongoing declines in tropical forests.

While some agricultural landscapes can support wildlife in the short term, it is uncertain how well they can truly sustain wildlife populations. To compare population trends in different production systems, we sampled birds along 48 transects in mature forests, diversified farms, and intensive farms across Costa Rica from 2000 to 2017. To assess how land use influenced population trends in the 349 resident and 80 migratory species with sufficient data, we developed population models. We found, first, that 23% of species were stable in all three land use types, with the rest almost evenly split between increasing and decreasing populations. Second, in forest habitats, a slightly higher fraction was declining: 62% of the 164 species undergoing long-term population changes; nearly half of these declines occurred in forest-affiliated invertivores. Third, in diversified farms, 49% of the 230 species with population changes were declining, with 60% of these declines occurring in agriculture-affiliated species. In contrast, 51% of the species with population changes on diversified farms showed increases, primarily in forest-affiliated invertivores and frugivores. In intensive farms, 153 species showed population changes, also with similar proportions of species increasing (50%) and decreasing (50%). Declines were concentrated in agriculture-affiliated invertivores and forest-affiliated frugivores; increases occurred in many large, omnivorous species. Our findings paint a complex picture but clearly indicate that diversified farming helps sustain populations of diverse, forest-affiliated species. Despite not fully offsetting losses in forest habitats, diversified farming practices help sustain wildlife in a critical time, before possible transformation to nature-positive policies and practices.

Forced intercourse in America: a pandemic update.

BACKGROUND: Measures of forced intercourse from the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) indicate high prevalence among U.S. women, which is likely to produce unintended pregnancies. However, NCHS did not measure forced intercourse during the pandemic, limiting knowledge of recent prevalence rates. METHODS: We use multiple nationally-representative, cross-sectional surveys representing the U.S. population from 2011 to 2022 to document these trends. This includes measures from the National Survey of Family Growth, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition into Adulthood Supplement, and the American Family Health Study (AFHS) to provide population estimates of forced intercourse. RESULTS: Reports of forced intercourse remained high during the pandemic, with more than 25% of U.S. females over 40 reporting lifetime forced intercourse in the AFHS (number of females in AFHS: 1,042). There was a significant increase among females aged 24-28 (p < 0.05) and rates are highest for those who did not complete college. Among females 24-28, 32.5% (S.E. = 5.7%) with less than 4 years of college reported forced intercourse, a significantly (p < 0.05) higher rate than among those with a higher level of education. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of forced intercourse among U.S. women remained high during the pandemic, increasing significantly in early adulthood. This exposure to forced intercourse is likely to produce an increase in unintended pregnancies and other sexual, reproductive, and mental health problems.

Ongoing over-exploitation and delayed responses to environmental change highlight the urgency for action to promote vertebrate recoveries by 2030.

To safeguard nature, we must understand the drivers of biodiversity loss. Time-delayed biodiversity responses to environmental changes (ecological lags) are often absent from models of biodiversity change, despite their well-documented existence. We quantify how lagged responses to climate and land-use change have influenced mammal and bird populations around the world, while incorporating effects of direct exploitation and conservation interventions. Ecological lag duration varies between drivers, vertebrate classes and body size groupings-e.g. lags linked to climate-change impacts are 13 years for small birds, rising to 40 years for larger species. Past warming and land conversion generally combine to predict population declines; however, such conditions are associated with population increases for small mammals. Positive effects of management (>+4% annually for large mammals) and protected areas (>+6% annually for large birds) on population trends contrast with the negative impact of exploitation (<-7% annually for birds), highlighting the need to promote sustainable use. Model projections suggest a future with winners (e.g. large birds) and losers (e.g. medium-sized birds), with current/recent environmental change substantially influencing abundance trends to 2050. Without urgent action, including effective conservation interventions and promoting sustainable use, ambitious targets to stop declines by 2030 may already be slipping out of reach.

Demographics and Oral Health Care Utilization for Older Adults.

The population of older adults is projected to increase dramatically as Baby Boomers continue to reach age 65 into 2029. This article discusses key shifts in this demographic, including changes in overall health status and living arrangements, that can aid in defining older adults and their medical needs. It also highlights the changes in dental use patterns and the increase in demand for comprehensive dental services for older adults in recent years. The article focuses on the fact that oral health contributes to overall health and the dental workforce must be prepared to treat older adults in their practices.