The brighter side of climate change: How local oceanography amplified a lobster boom in the Gulf of Maine.

Ocean warming can drive poleward shifts of commercially important species with potentially significant economic impacts. Nowhere are those impacts greater than in the Gulf of Maine where North America's most valuable marine species, the American lobster (Homarus americanus Milne Edwards), has thrived for decades. However, there are growing concerns that regional maritime economies will suffer as monitored shallow water young-of-year lobsters decline and landings shift to the northeast. We examine how the interplay of ocean warming, tidal mixing, and larval behavior results in a brighter side of climate change. Since the 1980s lobster stocks have increased fivefold. We suggest that this increase resulted from a complex interplay between lobster larvae settlement behavior, climate change, and local oceanographic conditions. Specifically, postlarval sounding behavior is confined to a thermal envelope above 12°C and below 20°C. Summer thermally stratified surface waters in southwestern regions have historically been well within the settlement thermal envelope. Although surface layers are warming fastest in this region, the steep depth-wise temperature gradient caused thermally suitable areas for larval settlement to expand only modestly. This contrasts with the northeast where strong tidal mixing prevents thermal stratification and recent ocean warming has made an expansive area of seabed more favorable for larval settlement. Recent declines in lobster settlement densities observed at shallow monitoring sites correlate with the expanded area of thermally suitable habitat associated with warmer summers. This leads us to hypothesize that the expanded area of suitable habitat may help explain strong lobster population increases in this region over the last decade and offset potential future declines. It also suggests that the fate of fisheries in a changing climate requires understanding local interaction between life stage-specific biological thresholds and finer scale oceanographic processes.

Plastic responses of bryozoans to ocean acidification.

Phenotypic plasticity has the potential to allow organisms to respond rapidly to global environmental change, but the range and effectiveness of these responses are poorly understood across taxa and growth strategies. Colonial organisms might be particularly resilient to environmental stressors, as organizational modularity and successive asexual generations can allow for distinctively flexible responses in the aggregate form. We performed laboratory experiments to examine the effects of increasing dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) (i.e. ocean acidification) on the colonial bryozoan Celleporella cornuta sampled from two source populations within a coastal upwelling region of the northern California coast. Bryozoan colonies were remarkably plastic under these CO2 treatments. Colonies raised under high CO2 grew more quickly, investing less in reproduction and producing lighter skeletons when compared with genetically identical clones raised under current surface atmosphere CO2 values. Bryozoans held under high CO2 conditions also changed the Mg/Ca ratio of skeletal calcite and increased the expression of organic coverings in new growth, which may serve as protection against acidified water. We also observed strong differences between source populations in reproductive investment and organic covering reaction norms, consistent with adaptive responses to persistent spatial variation in local oceanographic conditions. Our results demonstrate that phenotypic plasticity and energetic trade-offs can mediate biological responses to global environmental change, and highlight the broad range of strategies available to colonial organisms.