Life History Strategies Drive Meso-Scale Distribution Patterns in Coastal Benthic Macroinvertebrates.

The environment shapes the spatial distribution of species, but species also comprise suites of traits which may indicate their adaptability to a specific environment. This forms the basis of trait biogeography studies. We thus examined how a species distribution is not only influenced by its environment and traits, but by interactions among its traits. Trait information was collected for 150 intertidal macroinvertebrates along a 3000 km environmental and biogeographic gradient on the South African coast. This information was analysed, as functional entities (FEs) were species performing similar functions that have the same trait values and were further condensed into two trait domains (Reproduction and Lifestyle). We then defined Life History Strategies (LHS) as specific combinations of Lifestyle and Reproduction FEs. Seven combinations of Lifestyle and Reproduction formed LHS that dominated total biomass. Some of these LHS were ubiquitous, while others showed geographic patterns across our west-east environmental gradient. For Lifestyle, filter-feeders exhibited high abundances on the East (subtropical, oligotrophic) and West (cool-temperate, eutrophic) extremes of the biogeographic gradient, but differed between the two in size at reproductive maturity and larval development type. This similarity in functionality of feeding mechanism and mobility with different reproductive strategies suggests a trait trade-off (investment in one trait reduces resources for others) between the Reproduction and Lifestyle domains. Within the Reproduction domain, gonochoristic, annual planktotrophic reproduction was common across bioregions, reflecting spin-offs (investment in one trait facilitates another trait) among these traits. Gonochoristic investment in less frequent episodic reproduction is another trade-off, with investment in large size and delayed maturation being a trade-off for many reproductive cycles. Overall, although our data supports the habitat templet model (i.e., the importance of environmental drivers), it further indicates that species distribution patterns observed along the South African coast reflect strong trait interactions and biomass patterns related to their LHS.

Coati optimization algorithm based Deep Convolutional Forest method for prediction of atmospheric and oceanic parameters.

Droughts and floods are examples of extreme weather events that can result from changes in ocean temperature. Ocean temperature is a key component of the global open sea system. Currently, real-time sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts are generated by numerical models based on physics principles and influenced by boundary and initial conditions. These models generally perform better over large areas than at specific locations. To address this and improve prediction accuracy, particularly in high-precision areas, the Coati Optimization Algorithm-based Deep Convolutional Forest (COA-DCF) method is proposed. This optimization approach is utilized to train the Deep Convolutional Forest (DCF) classifier, which then applies the prediction strategy. The COA-DCF method forecasts ocean surface temperature anomalies by considering key variables such as SST, Sea Surface Height (SSH), soil moisture, and wind speed, using historical data ranging from 1 to 10 days across six different locations. The proposed method achieves improved accuracy with low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values, and a high Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) of 0.493, 0.487, and 0.4733, respectively, thereby enhancing the overall performance of the deep learning model.

Impacts of February climate conditions in the Gobi Desert on March dust activities in the northern East Asia.

Amid ongoing global warming, intense dust storms continue to plague regions despite efforts to understand and mitigate their impacts. This study explores the connection between surface temperature (ST) and precipitation (PRE) in the Gobi Desert (GD) during February and their subsequent effects on March dust concentrations across northern East Asia. Our analysis reveals a clear pattern: higher February ST combined with lower PRE in GD correlates with increased dust levels in March, with ST effects predominantly in northern areas of dust sources compared to PRE. The warming of the ST in February facilitates surface thawing, and the concurrently reduced PRE decreases soil moisture in GD. These conditions both contribute to the loosening of the soil, thereby creating favorable lower boundary conditions for the onset of dust activities in the subsequent March. Atmospheric dynamics play a pivotal role in the changes of ST and PRE. The preceding ST warming is closely tied to the weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. Furthermore, the Eurasia teleconnection (EU) pattern is identified as a key circulation factor driving the changes of February PRE in GD. Additionally, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Barents Sea and the North Atlantic appear to influence these atmospheric circulation changes, altering ST and PRE in GD, and consequently, impacting March dust dynamics in northern East Asia. This study provides crucial insights into the climatic precursors that drive dust storm activities, which are essential for improving the accuracy of dust storm forecasting.

Marine heatwaves and commercial fishing in New Zealand.

A marine heatwave (MHW) is an atypical and relatively short period of warmer Sea Surface Temperature (SST) which may be disruptive to marine life. Changes brought about by MHWs can reshape marine ecosystems in ways that have an economic impact on their users. MHWs are expected to become more frequent, longer, and more intense due to anthropogenic climate change. We leverage high-resolution SST data, and spatially and temporally detailed fish catch data, for an analysis of the impact of MHW events on fish catch in Aotearoa New Zealand's large marine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). We use Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression to assess the spatially heterogenous impact of MHWs on fish catch across different areas within the EEZ. We find that moderate MHWs correlate with increased fish catches; but, as the intensity of MHWs increase, their impact becomes predominantly negative. Intense MHWs are associated with substantial decreases in fish catch, suggesting significant disruptions to fish populations and their habitats. This pattern underscores the vulnerability of marine ecosystems and consequently commercial fisheries to the increasing frequency and severity of MHWs caused by climate change. As MHWs become more frequent and intense, better informed management approaches will be required to ensure the sustainability and viability of fisheries.

Massive barnacle recruitment on the Gulf of St. Lawrence coast of Nova Scotia (Canada) in 2024 linked to increased sea surface temperature.

With the ongoing climate and oceanographic change, an increasing number of studies are reporting dramatic population losses caused by thermal extremes in intertidal habitats. Under moderate warming, however, populations can fare better in places where species normally experienced suboptimal temperatures. This article reports the massive recruitment of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides on the Gulf of St. Lawrence coast of Nova Scotia (Canada) in 2024. As recruits appear mostly during May in this region, coastal sea surface temperature (SST) in April is critical for the ecological performance of larvae, as they are pelagic and live in the water column for weeks before intertidal settlement. Thus, a study that spanned 12 years (2005 to 2016) on this coast found that annual barnacle recruitment was positively correlated to April SST. In April 2024, coastal SST was 116% higher than for the same month averaged over those 12 years (4.1 vs. 1.9 °C). This SST spike was followed by an elevated recruitment that was 111% higher than the average for those 12 years (1,278 vs. 607 recruits dm-2). Overall for the studied years, the amount of variation in annual barnacle recruitment statistically explained by April SST was 51%. While the southern distribution limit of S. balanoides has moved northwards in recent decades due to lethal warming, our results support the notion of improving reproductive success with seawater warming on colder northern shores.

Temperature, sediment resuspension, and salinity drive the prevalence of Vibrio vulnificus in the coastal Baltic Sea.

The number of Vibrio-related infections in humans, e.g., by Vibrio vulnificus, has increased along the coasts of the Baltic Sea. Due to climate change, vibriosis risk is expected to increase. It is, therefore, pertinent to design a strategy for mitigation of the vibriosis threat in the Baltic Sea area, but a prerequisite is to identify the environmental conditions promoting the occurrence of pathogenic Vibrio spp., like V. vulnificus. To address this, we sampled three coastal Baltic sites in Finland, Germany, and Denmark with salinities between 6 and 21 from May to October 2022. The absolute and relative abundances of Vibrio spp. and V. vulnificus in water were compared to environmental conditions, including the presence of the eelgrass Zostera marina, which has been suggested to reduce pathogenic Vibrio species abundance. In the water column, V. vulnificus only occurred at the German station between July and August at salinity 8.1-11.2. Temperature and phosphate (PO43-) were identified as the most influencing factors for Vibrio spp. and V. vulnificus. The accumulation of Vibrio spp. in the sediment and the co-occurrence with sediment bacteria in the water column indicate that sediment resuspension contributed to V. vulnificus abundance. Interestingly, V. vulnificus co-occurred with specific cyanobacteria taxa, as well as specific bacteria associated with cyanobacteria. Although we found no reduction in Vibrio spp. or V. vulnificus associated with eelgrass beds, our study underscores the importance of extended heatwaves and sediment resuspension, which may elevate the availability of PO43-, for Vibrio species levels at intermediate salinities in the Baltic Sea. IMPORTANCE: Elevated sea surface temperatures are increasing the prevalence of pathogenic Vibrio at higher latitudes. The recent increase in Vibrio-related wound infections and deaths along the Baltic coasts is, therefore, of serious health concern. We used culture-independent data generated from three Baltic coastal sites in Denmark, Germany, and Finland from May to October (2022), with a special focus on Vibrio vulnificus, and combined it with environmental data. Our temporal model shows that temperature, combined with sediment resuspension, drives the prevalence of V. vulnificus at intermediate salinities in the coastal Baltic Sea.

Global warming and coastal protected areas: A study on phytoplankton abundance and sea surface temperature in different regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic Coastal Ocean.

In this study, we examined the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and phytoplankton abundance in coastal regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic: São Paulo, Paraná, and Santa Catarina, and the Protection Area of Southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) in Santa Catarina (APA), a conservation zone established along 130 km of coastline. Using SST and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data from 2002 to 2023, we found significant differences in SST between the regions, with São Paulo having the highest SST, followed by Paraná and Santa Catarina. All locations showed a consistent increase in SST over the years, with North Santa Catarina, APA and São Paulo experiencing the lowest rate of increase. Correlation analyses between SST and Chl-a revealed a stronger inverse relationship in North Santa Catarina and APA, indicating an increased response of Chl-a to SST variations in this region. The presence of protected area appears to play an essential role in reducing the negative impacts of increasing SST. Specifically, while there is a wealth of research on the consequences of global warming on diverse coastal and oceanic areas, heterogeneity among different settings persists and the causes for this necessitating attention. Our findings have implications for both localized scientific approaches and broader climate policies, emphasizing the importance of considering coastal ecosystem resilience to climate change in future conservation and adaptation strategies.

Thermal efficiency dataset around Cuban seas (TEDACS).

Currently, the generation of electrical energy in Cuba is supported by oil and natural gas. These sources, as it is known, are directly linked to large emissions of pollutants that are released into the environment. Therefore, it is necessary to search for new energy options that are directed towards sustainable development, allowing the preservation of natural ecosystems. Owing to the location and geographical characteristics of Cuba, it is necessary to assess the energy possibilities of the seas that surround it and to search for the most feasible areas to obtain energy from the sea temperature. This renewable energy source, in addition to being used to generate electricity, can also be used in derived technologies, such as desalination, refrigeration, and aquaculture. Hence, a dataset is presented with the calculation of the thermal efficiency for the exploitation of thermal energy from the sea, which is based on the thermal gradient between the sea potential temperatures between the shore and the level of depth being analyzed. Outputs of 27 years of daily data from the Copernicus Marine Environmental Monitoring Service (CMEMS) GLOBAL_MULTIYEAR_PHY_001_030 product with a spatial resolution of 1/12° were used. The calculation was made using a Python script of the daily thermal efficiency at depths of 763, 902, and 1062 m, as these are the levels that are traditionally studied for the exploitation of sea thermal energy. In this way, 27 files of each level were generated for a total of 81 files in text format separated by commas. Each file is presented with the date, level, coordinates, and thermal efficiency. The dataset is available from the Science Data Bank repository ( https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.10037).

Quantification of Climate Footprints of Vibrio vulnificus in Coastal Human Communities of the United States Gulf Coast.

The incidence of vibriosis is rising globally with evidence of climate variability influencing environmental processes that support growth of pathogenic Vibrio spp. The waterborne pathogen, Vibrio vulnificus can invade wounds and has one of the highest case fatality rates in humans. The bacterium cannot be eradicated from the aquatic environment, hence climate driven environmental conditions enhancing growth and dissemination of V. vulnificus need to be understood to provide preemptive assessment of its presence and distribution in aquatic systems. To achieve this objective, satellite remote sensing was employed to quantify the association of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (chl-a) in locations with reported V. vulnificus infections. Monthly analysis was done in two populated regions of the Gulf of Mexico-Tampa Bay, Florida, and Galveston Bay, Texas. Results indicate warm water, characterized by a 2-month lag in SST, high concentration of phytoplankton, proxied for zooplankton using 1 month lagged chl-a values, was statistically linked to higher odds of V. vulnificus infection in the human population. Identification of climate and ecological processes thresholds is concluded to be useful for development of an heuristic prediction system designed to determine risk of infection for coastal populations.

Long-term effects of climate change on juvenile bull shark migratory patterns.

Seasonal variability in environmental conditions is a strong determinant of animal migrations, but warming temperatures associated with climate change are anticipated to alter this phenomenon with unknown consequences. We used a 40-year fishery-independent survey to assess how a changing climate has altered the migration timing, duration and first-year survival of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas). From 1982 to 2021, estuaries in the western Gulf of Mexico (Texas) experienced a mean increase of 1.55°C in autumn water temperatures, and delays in autumn cold fronts by ca. 0.5 days per year. Bull shark migrations in more northern estuaries concomitantly changed, with departures 25-36 days later in 2021 than in 1982. Later, migrations resulted in reduced overwintering durations by up to 81 days, and the relative abundance of post-overwintering age 0-1 sharks increased by >50% during the 40-year study period. Yet, reductions in prey availability were the most influential factor delaying migrations. Juvenile sharks remained in natal estuaries longer when prey were less abundant. Long-term declines in prey reportedly occurred due to reduced spawning success associated with climate change based on published reports. Consequently, warming waters likely enabled and indirectly caused the observed changes in shark migratory behaviour. As water temperatures continue to rise, bull sharks in the north-western Gulf of Mexico could forgo their winter migrations in the next 50-100 years based on current trends and physiological limits, thereby altering their ecological roles in estuarine ecosystems and recruitment into the adult population. It is unclear if estuarine food webs will be able to support changing residency patterns as climate change affects the spawning success of forage species. We expect these trends are not unique to the western Gulf of Mexico or bull sharks, and migratory patterns of predators in subtropical latitudes are similarly changing at a global scale.

Warming sea surface temperatures are linked to lower shorebird migratory fuel loads.

Warming sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are altering the biological structure of intertidal wetlands at a global scale, with potentially serious physiological and demographic consequences for migratory shorebird populations that depend on intertidal sites. The effects of mediating factors, such as age-related foraging skill, in shaping the consequences of warming SSTs on shorebird populations, however, remain largely unknown. Using morphological measurements of Dunlin fuelling for a >3000 km transoceanic migration, we assessed the influence of climatic conditions and age on individuals' migratory fuel loads and performance. We found that juveniles were often at risk of exhausting their fuel loads en route to primary wintering grounds, especially following high June SSTs in the previous year; the lagged nature of which suggests SSTs acted on juvenile loads by altering the availability of critical prey. Up to 45% fewer juveniles may have reached wintering grounds via a non-stop flight under recent high SSTs compared to the long-term trend. Adults, by contrast, were highly capable of reaching wintering grounds in non-stop flight across years. Our findings suggest that juveniles were disproportionately impacted by apparent SST-related declines in critical prey, and illustrate a general mechanism by which climate change may shape migratory shorebird populations worldwide.

Climate change impacts on small pelagic fish distribution in Northwest Africa: trends, shifts, and risk for food security.

Climate change is recognised to lead to spatial shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by altering their environmental optima. Fish supply along the Northwest African coast is significant at both socio-economic and cultural levels. Evaluating the impacts of climatic change on small pelagic fish is a challenge and of serious concern in the context of shared stock management. Evaluating the impact of climate change on the distribution of small pelagic fish, a trend analysis was conducted using data from 2363 trawl samplings and 170,000 km of acoustics sea surveys. Strong warming is reported across the Southern Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), extending from Morocco to Senegal. Over 34 years, several trends emerged, with the southern CCLME experiencing increases in both wind speed and upwelling intensity, particularly where the coastal upwelling was already the strongest. Despite upwelling-induced cooling mechanisms, sea surface temperature (SST) increased in most areas, indicating the complex interplay of climatic-related stressors in shaping the marine ecosystem. Concomitant northward shifts in the distribution of small pelagic species were attributed to long-term warming trends in SST and a decrease in marine productivity in the south. The abundance of Sardinella aurita, the most abundant species along the coast, has increased in the subtropics and fallen in the intertropical region. Spatial shifts in biomass were observed for other exploited small pelagic species, similar to those recorded for surface isotherms. An intensification in upwelling intensity within the northern and central regions of the system is documented without a change in marine primary productivity. In contrast, upwelling intensity is stable in the southern region, while there is a decline in primary productivity. These environmental differences affected several small pelagic species across national boundaries. This adds a new threat to these recently overexploited fish stocks, making sustainable management more difficult. Such changes must motivate common regional policy considerations for food security and sovereignty in all West African countries sharing the same stocks.

Pacific salmon in the Canadian Arctic highlight a range-expansion pathway for sub-Arctic fishes.

Rapid climate change is altering Arctic ecosystems at unprecedented rates. These changes in the physical environment may open new corridors for species range expansions, with substantial implications for subsistence-dependent communities and sensitive ecosystems. Over the past 20 years, rising incidental harvest of Pacific salmon by subsistence fishers has been monitored across a widening range spanning multiple land claim jurisdictions in Arctic Canada. In this study, we connect Indigenous and scientific knowledges to explore potential oceanographic mechanisms facilitating this ongoing northward expansion of Pacific salmon into the western Canadian Arctic. A regression analysis was used to reveal and characterize a two-part mechanism related to thermal and sea-ice conditions in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas that explains nearly all of the variation in the relative abundance of salmon observed within this region. The results indicate that warmer late-spring temperatures in a Chukchi Sea watch-zone and persistent, suitable summer thermal conditions in a Beaufort Sea watch-zone together create a range-expansion corridor and are associated with higher salmon occurrences in subsistence harvests. Furthermore, there is a body of knowledge to suggest that these conditions, and consequently the presence and abundance of Pacific salmon, will become more persistent in the coming decades. Our collaborative approach positions us to document, explore, and explain mechanisms driving changes in fish biodiversity that have the potential to, or are already affecting, Indigenous rights-holders in a rapidly warming Arctic.

Increasing marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Thailand after the global warming hiatus.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been reported often throughout the world, producing severe effects on marine ecosystems. However, the spatial pattern and trend of MHWs in the Gulf of Thailand (GOT) is still unknown. Based on high-resolution daily satellite data over a 40-year period from 1982 to 2021, changes in annual mean SST and MHW occurrences across the GOT are explored here. The results demonstrate that during a warming hiatus (1998-2009), annual mean SST in the GOT encountered a dropping trend, followed by an increasing trend during a warming reacceleration period (2010-2021). Although a warming hiatus and a warming reacceleration occurred in the annual mean SST after 1998, regional averaged SSTs were still 0.18 °C-0.42 °C higher than that for 1982-1997. Statistical distributions reveal that there was a significant shift in both annual mean SSTs and annual extreme hot SSTs. These changes have the potential to increase the frequency of MHWs. Further analysis reveals that MHW frequency has increased at a rate of 1.11 events per decade from 1982 to 2021, which is 2.5 times the global mean rate. For the period 2010-2021, the frequency and intensity of MHWs in the GOT have never dropped, but have instead been more frequent, longer lasting and extreme than those metrics of MHWs between 1982 and 2009. Furthermore, the findings highlight significant changes in the SST over the GOT that may lead us to change or modify the reference period of the MHW definition. The findings also suggest that heat transport and redistribution mechanisms in the GOT sea are changing. This study contributes to our understanding of MHW features in the GOT and the implications for marine ecosystems.

Retrieval of subsurface dissolved oxygen from surface oceanic parameters based on machine learning.

Oceanic dissolved oxygen (DO) is crucial for oceanic material cycles and marine biological activities. However, obtaining subsurface DO values directly from satellite observations is limited due to the restricted observed depth. Therefore, it is essential to develop a connection between surface oceanic parameters and subsurface DO values. Machine learning (ML) methods can effectively grasp the complex relationship between input attributes and target variables, making them a valuable approach for estimating subsurface DO values based on surface oceanic parameters. In this study, the potential of ML methods for subsurface DO retrieval is analyzed. Among the selected ML methods, namely support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF) regression, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoosting) regression, the RF method generally demonstrates superior performance. As the depth increases, the accuracy of DO estimates tends to initially decrease, then gradually improve, with the poorest performance occurring at the depth of 600 dbar. The range of determination coefficients (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) values based on the test dataset at different depths lies between 0.53 and 47.59 µmol/kg to 0.99 and 4.01 µmol/kg. In addition, compared to sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface chlorophyll-a (SCHL), sea surface temperature (SST) plays a more significant role in DO retrieval. Finally, compared to the pelagic interactions scheme for carbon and ecosystem studies (PISCES) model, the RF method achieves higher retrieval accuracies at depths above 700 dbar. In the deep ocean, the primary differences in DO values obtained from the RF method and the PISCES model-based method are noticeable in the vicinity of the equatorial region.

Unravelling the signatures of submarine groundwater discharge and seawater intrusion along the coastal plains of Odisha, India: a multi-proxy approach.

Submarine Groundwater Discharge (SGD) and Seawater Intrusion (SWI) are two contrary hydrological processes that occur across the land-sea continuum and understanding their nature is essential for management and development of coastal groundwater resource. Present study has attempted to demarcate probable zones of SGD and SWI along highly populated Odisha coastal plains which is water stressed due to indiscriminate-exploitation of groundwater leading to salinization and fresh groundwater loss from the alluvial aquifers. A multi-proxy investigation approach including decadal groundwater level dynamics, LANDSAT derived sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and in-situ physicochemical analysis (pH, EC, TDS, salinity and temperature) of porewater, groundwater and seawater were used to locate the SGD and SWI sites. A total of 340 samples for four seasons (85 samples i.e., 30 porewater, 30 seawater and 25 groundwater in each season) were collected and their in-situ parameters were measured at every 1-2 km gap along ~ 145 km coastline of central Odisha (excluding the estuarine region). Considering high groundwater EC values (> 3000 µS/cm), three probable SWI and low porewater salinities (< 32 ppt in pre- and < 25 ppt in post-monsoons), four probable SGD zones were identified. The identified zones were validated with observed high positive hydraulic gradient (> 10 m) at SGD and negative hydraulic gradient (< 0 m) at SWI sites along with anomalous SST (colder in pre- and warmer in post-monsoon) near probable SGD locations. This study is first of its kind along the Odisha coast and may act as initial basis for subsequent investigations on fresh-saline interaction along the coastal plains where environmental integrity supports the livelihood of coastal communities and the ecosystem.

Regional differences in the effects of various Stokes drifts on the cooling of the marine environment under different wave conditions.

The WAVEWATCHIII model is employed to simulate Stokes drift, utilizing four distinct schemes integrated into the SBPOM circulation model. Deviations between simulated values and observations from the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) dataset unveil significant variations, particularly in regions characterized by pronounced swell. The northern hemisphere exhibits the highest deviations, reaching up to 0.3 °C during the March-April-May (MAM) and December-January-February (DJF) periods, while the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) consistently displays smaller deviations of approximately 0.1 °C. Deviations from Argo buoy measurements hover around 0.1 °C, except in the northern hemisphere where they escalate to approximately 1.5 °C. A comparative analysis of simulation results and Argo buoy measurements reveals an increasing deviation trend with a higher proportion of swell in specific sea areas, particularly evident in simulations utilizing approximate parameterization schemes. Notably, the Phillips profile scheme exhibits optimal performance, while the monochromatic profile scheme peaks with a simulated deviation of 0.13 °C. In contrast, the wave spectrum profile scheme consistently demonstrates applicability across diverse wave conditions and accurately captures the mixed layer at various depths. This study highlights the importance of the coupled WAVEWATCHIII-SBPOM model in accurately modeling future ocean conditions, providing valuable insight into the field of environmental science.

Tropical ocean teleconnections with gross primary productivity of monsoon-Asia.

The intricate oceanic climate interactions with terrestrial primary production of Asian ecosystems exert crucial social-economical-environmental repercussions. Yet, a holistic understanding of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the gross primary productivity (GPP) variations of monsoon-Asia remains constrained. This study provides a statistical framework demonstrating how SST perturbations in the tropics influence GPP fluctuations in monsoon-Asia by modulating hydrothermal conditions of different climate system components. Observation evidence explicitly illustrated the characteristic anomalous SST signatures of positive and negative GPP anomalies in South and Southeast Asia during June-August. The SST anomalies of the central-eastern tropical Pacific showed a robust negative impact on the GPP variability of South-Asia. The GPP alterations in maritime-Southeast-Asia exhibited strong connections with SST anomalies of the western Pacific (positive) and eastern equatorial Pacific (negative). The oceanic signals in the GPP variability of South-Asia and maritime-Southeast-Asia mirrored canonical El Niño and La Niña patterns. The detected SST-GPP link is feasible through large-scale atmospheric circulation variability and the consequent regional modulation of heat and moisture fluxes. The anomalous strengthening (weakening) of Walker cell enhances (reduces) water availability to plants for photosynthesis during the La Niña (El Niño) phase of the ENSO cycle and thus elevates (lowers) GPP in South-Asia and Maritime-southeast-Asia. In contrast, the enhanced GPP anomaly in mainland-Southeast-Asia depicts signs of canonical La Niña and Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD) teleconnections. The positive impact of IOSD was through the modulation of the Mascarene High and the consequent impact on the monsoon. Meanwhile, decreased GPP bears the imprint of El Niño Modoki and warm tropical Indian Ocean SSTs. The atmospheric teleconnections demonstrated the delayed impact of El Niño Modoki on GPP variability through the Indian Ocean capacitor effect. Our findings could be instrumental in forecasting the probable effects on vegetation growth in monsoon-Asia associated with high-frequency tropical oceanic changes.

Bloom dynamics under the effects of periodic driving forces.

Phytoplankton bloom received considerable attention for many decades. Different approaches have been used to explain the bloom phenomena. In this paper, we study a Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton (NPZ) model consisting of a periodic driving force in the growth rate of phytoplankton due to solar radiation and analyse the dynamics of the corresponding autonomous and non-autonomous systems in different parametric regions. Then we introduce a novel aspect to extend the model by incorporating another periodic driving force into the growth term of the phytoplankton due to sea surface temperature (SST), a key point of innovation. Temperature dependency of the maximum growth rate (µmax) of the phytoplankton is modelled by the well-known Q10 formulation: [Formula: see text] , where µ0 is maximum growth at 0oC. Stability conditions for all three equilibrium points are expressed in terms of the new parameter ρ2, which appears due to the incorporation of periodic driving forces. System dynamics is explored through a detailed bifurcation analysis, both mathematically and numerically, with respect to the light and temperature dependent phytoplankton growth response. Bloom phenomenon is explained by the saddle point bloom mechanism even when the co-existing equilibrium point does not exist for some values of ρ2. Solar radiation and SST are modelled using sinusoidal functions constructed from satellite data. Our results of the proposed model describe the initiation of the phytoplankton bloom better than an existing model for the region 25-35° W, 40-45° N of the North Atlantic Ocean. An improvement of 14 days (approximately) is observed in the bloom initiation time. The rate of change method (ROC) is applied to predict the bloom initiation.

Microalgal assemblages response to water quality remediation in coastal waters of Perth, Australia.

Nutrient reduction is an essential environmental policy for water quality remediation, but climate change can offset the ecological benefits of nutrient reduction and lead to the difficulty of environmental evaluation. Here, based on the records of three lipid microalgal biomarkers and stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen in two sediment cores from the embayment of Perth, Australia, we reconstructed the microalgal biomasses (diatoms, dinoflagellates and coccolithophores) over the past century and evaluated the ecological effects of nutrient reduction on them, using Change Point Modeling (CPM) and redundancy analysis (RDA). The CPM result showed that total microalgal biomarkers increased by 25% and 51% in deep and shallow areas, respectively, due to nutrient enrichment caused by industrial wastewater in the 1950s and the causeway construction in the 1970s, and dinoflagellates were beneficiaries of eutrophication. The nutrient reduction policy since the 1980s had not decreased total microalgal biomass, and diatoms were beneficiaries of this period. RDA based on time series of sediment cores and water monitoring data revealed that the increase of sea-surface temperature and the decrease of rainfall since the 1980s may be important factors sustaining the high total microalgal biomass and increasing the degree of diatom dominance. The result also indicated that the variations of microalgal assemblages may better explain the effect of nutrient reduction rather than total microalgal biomass.