Forecasting Tourist Arrivals for Hainan Island in China with Decomposed Broad Learning before the COVID-19 Pandemic.

This study proposes a decomposed broad learning model to improve the forecasting accuracy for tourism arrivals on Hainan Island in China. With decomposed broad learning, we predicted monthly tourist arrivals from 12 countries to Hainan Island. We compared the actual tourist arrivals to Hainan from the US with the predicted tourist arrivals using three models (FEWT-BL: fuzzy entropy empirical wavelet transform-based broad learning; BL: broad Learning; BPNN: back propagation neural network). The results indicated that US foreigners had the most arrivals in 12 countries, and FEWT-BL had the best performance in forecasting tourism arrivals. In conclusion, we establish a unique model for accurate tourism forecasting that can facilitate decision-making in tourism management, especially at turning points in time.

The impact of tourism arrivals, tourism receipts and renewable energy consumption on quality of life: A panel study of Southern African region.

Improving wellbeing and livelihoods exemplify the third Sustainable Development Goal. Literature related to the tourism-renewable energy-quality of life nexus is limited and lacks consensus. This study contributes to the debate and examines the influence of international tourism arrival (TA), real international tourism receipts (TR), and renewable energy consumption (REC) on quality of life (QoL) by using a panel of 8 Southern African countries spanning 1995-2017. The results found a significant positive and long-run relationship between TA, TR, and QoL. A significant negative effect was found between REC, trade openness (TO), and QoL while urbanization (Urb) had an insignificant negative impact on QoL. A unidirectional causal relationship was found running from QoL to TR and bidirectional causality between QoL and REC. Feedback causality was found between QoL and Urb and unidirectional causality from QoL to TO. The results imply that tourism is an effective economic tool for improving human development in Southern Africa.

The role of tourism, trade, renewable energy use and carbon dioxide emissions on economic growth: evidence of tourism-led growth hypothesis in EU-28.

The article examines the effects of renewable energy, trade, carbon dioxide emissions and international tourism on economic growth in EU-28, considering panel data for the period 1995-2014. The investigation finds the new determinants of economic growth. The empirical results find support from the panel fully modified least squares (FMOLS), panel dynamic least squares (DOLS) and fixed effects (FE) as estimation techniques. The econometric results are consistent with the existing literature. The variables considered in this study are cointegrated in the first difference, as suggested by the panel unit root test. The present study seeks to advance the knowledge of the growth determinants, paying attention to the effect that both the tourism and energy sector exerts on economic growth for EU-28 countries. The empirical results demonstrate that trade openness, tourism arrivals and renewable energy encourage economic growth. Therefore, according to the econometric results, renewable energy allows improving environmental quality. However, CO2 emissions are positively correlated with economic growth, showing that growth is directly correlated by climate change and greenhouse gas. The results also confirm the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) for the panel. Finally, the empirical results confirm that trade openness, energy use and international tourism contribute to enhance economic growth. Based on these findings, further insights and policy prescription are offered in the concluding section.Graphical abstract.

Tourist arrivals in four major economies: another side of economic policy uncertainty and fear.

In this paper, we examine the direction of causal relationships among migration-related fear, economic policy uncertainty, tourism, and economic growth in the panel economies of France, Germany, the UK, and the USA. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the interaction and interrelationship between these variables in a multivariate causality study, using a quarterly data over the period 1985Q1-2017Q4 via time-series causality approach as advanced by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (Econ Model 28:870-876, 2011) that produces country-specific causality statistic and also captures slope heterogeneity in panel data. Empirical results show that migration-related fear is linked with EPU, tourism arrivals, and real income. Thus, we suggest fear-induced economic policy uncertainty, fear-induced tourism, and economic policy uncertainty-induced growth hypotheses with credible policy suggestions for tourist destinations.

Triangular nexus between foreign direct investment, international tourism, and energy consumption in the Chinese economy: accounting for environmental quality.

Recently, China is named among the most carbon dioxide (CO2)-emitting countries in the world after the United State of America (USA). A major part of Chinese carbon dioxide emissions is as a result of offshore industrial activities which come into the economy as foreign direct investment (FDI). Following this, the present study seeks to investigate the nexus between CO2 emissions, FDI, energy use, and tourism arrivals, and possibly to advise on who will bear the responsibility of offshore CO2 emissions. Utilizing ARDL-bound testing and Granger causality approaches for both short- and long-run effects the author found that economic growth (GDP) has a positive relationship with both tourism arrivals, energy use, FDI, and CO2.This contributes to heavy CO2 emissions which the author classified as the outsourced/offshore CO2emissions in China's FDI. Tourism arrivals have a bi-directional (feedback) causal relationship with energy use and a uni-directional causal relationship with CO2(transmitting from tourism to CO2). Both FDI and energy use have a bi-directional (feedback) causal relationship; CO2, energy use, and tourism arrivals have a unidirectional relationship with GDP which established the triangular nexus causality among the variables and the impact on GDP. Hence, the policy implication should be geared towards implementing the policies and regulations that will checkmate and reduce the excesses of foreign firms to the environment quality of China and promote environmentally friendly economic activities.

Structural breaks in international tourism demand: Are they caused by crises or disasters?

It is recognised that the tourism industry is vulnerable to some form of crises or disaster. However, despite the attention given to the nature and consequences of tourism crises and disasters, there is a gap in the literature regarding the ex-post detection of these events. In this article, we estimate both the number and date of structural breaks in international tourism arrival series for 25 countries and Madeira Island using the Bai and Perron (1998) structural break test. We compare the date of tourism crises and disasters to the dating of these structural breaks. We observe that tourism crises and disasters are largely consistent with the dates of breaks. Therefore, this method allows us to solve a gap in the tourism industry related to the correct allocation of negative shocks in international tourism arrival demand to crisis or disaster phenomena.