Effect of marine heatwaves and warming on kelp microbiota influence trophic interactions.

The range-expansion of tropical herbivores due to ocean warming can profoundly alter temperate reef communities by overgrazing the seaweed forests that underpin them. Such ecological interactions may be mediated by changes to seaweed-associated microbiota in response to warming, but empirical evidence demonstrating this is rare. We experimentally simulated ocean warming and marine heatwaves (MHWs) to quantify effects on two dominant temperate seaweed species and their microbiota, as well as grazing by a tropical herbivore. The kelp Ecklonia radiata's microbiota in sustained warming and MHW treatments was enriched with microorganisms associated with seaweed disease and tissue degradation. In contrast, the fucoid Sargassum linearifolium's microbiota was unaffected by temperature. Consumption by the tropical sea-urchin Tripneustes gratilla was greater on Ecklonia where the microbiota had been altered by higher temperatures, while Sargassum's consumption was unaffected. Elemental traits (carbon, nitrogen), chemical defences (phenolics) and tissue bleaching of both seaweeds were generally unaffected by temperature. Effects of warming and MHWs on seaweed holobionts (host plus its microbiota) are likely species-specific. The effect of increased temperature on Ecklonia's microbiota and subsequent increased consumption suggest that changes to kelp microbiota may underpin kelp-herbivore interactions, providing novel insights into potential mechanisms driving change in species' interactions in warming oceans.

The role of microbial biofilms in range shifts of marine habitat-forming organisms.

Marine species, such as corals and kelp, are responding to climate change by altering their distributions. Microbial biofilms underpin key processes that affect the establishment, maintenance, and function of these dominant habitat-formers. Climate-mediated changes to microbial biofilms can therefore strongly influence species' range shifts. Here, we review emerging research on the interactions between benthic biofilms and habitat-formers and identify two key areas of interaction where climate change can impact this dynamic: (i) via direct effects on biofilm composition, and (ii) via impacts on the complex feedback loops which exist between the biofilm microbes and habitat-forming organisms. We propose that these key interactions will be fundamental in driving the speed and extent of tropicalisation of coastal ecosystems under climate change.

Future shock: Ocean acidification and seasonal water temperatures alter the physiology of competing temperate and coral reef fishes.

Climate change can directly (physiology) and indirectly (novel species interactions) modify species responses to novel environmental conditions during the initial stages of range shifts. Whilst the effects of climate warming on tropical species at their cold-water leading ranges are well-established, it remains unclear how future seasonal temperature changes, ocean acidification, and novel species interactions will alter the physiology of range-shifting tropical and competing temperate fish in recipient ecosystems. Here we used a laboratory experiment to examine how ocean acidification, future summer vs winter temperatures, and novel species interactions could affect the physiology of competing temperate and range-extending coral reef fish to determine potential range extension outcomes. In future winters (20 °C + elevated pCO2) coral reef fish at their cold-water leading edges showed reduced physiological performance (lower body condition and cellular defence, and higher oxidative damage) compared to present-day summer (23 °C + control pCO2) and future summer conditions (26 °C + elevated pCO2). However, they showed a compensatory effect in future winters through increased long-term energy storage. Contrastingly, co-shoaling temperate fish showed higher oxidative damage, and reduced short-term energy storage and cellular defence in future summer than in future winter conditions at their warm-trailing edges. However, temperate fish benefitted from novel shoaling interactions and showed higher body condition and short-term energy storage when shoaling with coral reef fish compared to same-species shoaling. We conclude that whilst during future summers, ocean warming will likely benefit coral reef fishes extending their ranges, future winter conditions may still reduce coral reef fish physiological functioning, and may therefore slow their establishment at higher latitudes. In contrast, temperate fish species benefit from co-shoaling with smaller-sized tropical fishes, but this benefit may dissipate due to their reduced physiological functioning under future summer temperatures and increasing body sizes of co-shoaling tropical species.

Habitat configurations shape the trophic and energetic dynamics of reef fishes in a tropical-temperate transition zone: implications under a warming future.

Understanding the extent to which species' traits mediate patterns of community assembly is key to predict the effect of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on ecosystem functioning. Here, we apply a trait-based community assembly framework to understand how four different habitat configurations (kelp forests, Sargassum spp. beds, hard corals, and turfs) shape the trophic and energetic dynamics of reef fish assemblages in a tropical-temperate transition zone. Specifically, we tested (i) the degree of trait divergence and convergence in each habitat, (ii) which traits explained variation in species' abundances, and (iii) differences in standing biomass (kg ha-1), secondary productivity (kg ha-1 day-1) and turnover (% day-1). Fish assemblages in coral and kelp habitats displayed greater evidence of trait convergence, while turf and Sargassum spp. habitats displayed a higher degree of trait divergence, a pattern that was mostly driven by traits related to resource use and thermal affinity. This filtering effect had an imprint on the trophic and energetic dynamics of reef fishes, with turf habitats supporting higher fish biomass and productivity. However, these gains were strongly dependent on trophic guild, with herbivores/detritivores disproportionately contributing to among-habitat differences. Despite these perceived overall gains, turnover was decoupled for fishes that act as conduit of energy to higher trophic levels (i.e. microinvertivores), with coral habitats displaying higher rates of fish biomass replenishment than turf despite their lower productivity. This has important implications for biodiversity conservation and fisheries management, questioning the long-term sustainability of ecological processes and fisheries yields in increasingly altered marine habitats.

Recruiting a long way from home: Domino damselfish Dascyllus trimaculatus can detect new temperate coral habitat and conspecifics.

Climate change is driving tropicalisation of temperate reefs, yet it is unclear how range-shifting tropical fishes locate suitable habitat. The authors tested whether juvenile tropical damsels Dascyllus trimaculatus could detect rare coral habitat (Pocillopora aliciae) and conspecifics on temperate rocky reefs using olfactory and visual preference experiments. For all cues, individuals selected and spent more time than expected in aquarium areas with the cue present, which included coral odour and conspecific odour and visual cues. This indicates that vagrant coral-reef fish can detect rare suitable habitat outside of their natal range.

Tropicalisation of epidemiological models in Africa: A mixed and hybrid approach to better predict COVID-19 indicators.

CONTEXT: Since the outbreak of the SARS-COV2 epidemic turned into a COVID-19 pandemic, international bodies such as the WHO as well as governments have announced projections for morbidity and mortality indicators related to COVID-19. Most of them indicated that the health situation would be worrying. Although using artificial intelligence with mathematical algorithms and/or neural networks, the results of the SIR models were poorly performing and not very accurate in relation to the observed reality in the African states in general and in Senegal in particular. Hence the imperative need to configure the modelling process and approach considering local contexts. METHOD: The model implemented is a mixed prediction model based on the Bucky model developed by OCHA and adapted to the context. The construction of the mixed model was done in two steps (basic model with publicly available data, such as those from United Nations-like organisations such as OCHA or WHO for Senegal), (adding more specific data collected through the mixed epidemiological survey). This survey was conducted in Senegal in six localities (Dakar, Thies, Diourbel, Kedougou, Saint-Louis and Ziguinchor) chosen according to the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. In total, 1000 individuals distributed in proportion to the size of the regions were interviewed in April 2021. RESULTS: The projected cases in the baseline model were already considerably higher than the cases reported in April. This may be plausible, given the low detection rates throughout Senegal during this period. However, the hybrid model predicted an even higher infection rate than the baseline, perhaps mainly due to vulnerability related to food insecurity and solid cooking fuels. This may mean that there would be more unreported cases than reported. Overall, the mortality rate of both models would be considerably lower than the government-reported mortality rate, even though the number of confirmed cases remains high. This may be an underestimate of the death rate. CONCLUSION: An accurate and reliable prediction in times of epidemics and/or pandemics, such as COVID-19, should be based on mixed or hybrid data integrating a quantitative and qualitative approach to enable better policymaking. The projections resulting from this approach would still be effective and would take better account of local realities and contexts, especially for developing countries.

Behavioural generalism could facilitate coexistence of tropical and temperate fishes under climate change.

Coral-reef fishes are shifting their distributions poleward in response to human-mediated ocean warming; yet, the consequences for recipient temperate fish communities remain poorly understood. Behavioural modification is often the first response of species to environmental change, but we know little about how this might shape the ongoing colonisation by tropical fishes of temperate-latitude ecosystems under climate change. In a global hotspot of ocean warming (southeast Australia), we quantified 14 behavioural traits of invading tropical and local co-occurring temperate fishes at 10 sites across a 730 km latitudinal gradient as a proxy of species behavioural niche space in different climate ranges (subtropical, warm-temperate and cold-temperate). We found that tropical fishes (four species) modified their behavioural niches as well as increased their overall behavioural niche breadth in their novel temperate ranges where temperate species predominate, but maintained a moderate to high niche segregation with native temperate species across latitudinal range position. Temperate species (three co-occurring species) also modified their niches, but in contrast to tropical species, experienced an increased niche breadth towards subtropical ranges. Alterations to feeding and shoaling behaviours contributed most to niche modifications in tropical and temperate species, while behaviours related to alertness and escape from potential threats contributed least. We here show that at warmer and colder range edges where community structures are being reshuffled due to climate change, behavioural generalism and niche modification are potential mechanisms adopted by tropical range extenders and native temperate fishes to adjust to novel species interactions under climate change.

A new record of the invasive seaweed Caulerpa cylindracea Sonder in the South Adriatic Sea.

The green alga Caulerpa cylindracea Sonder is one of the most infamous and threatening invasive species in the Mediterranean Sea. Since 1985, it started rapidly spreading to all Mediterranean regions causing many ecological changes on natural communities. In the present study, we present an example of this proliferation with the first record in the Marine Protected Area of Tremiti Island (MPATI) in the South Adriatic Sea. Fifteen sites along the coast and 5 different depths have been investigated. Our results provide eveidence of a wide invasion of this pest in three islands, San Domino, San Nicola and Capraia. This study fills a particular data gap in the ongoing biomonitoring of invasive seaweeds in the Mediterranean Sea representing a base line of this invasive species for the MPATI.

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring.

Tropical herbivores provide resilience to a climate-mediated phase shift on temperate reefs.

Climate-mediated changes to biotic interactions have the potential to fundamentally alter global ecosystems. However, the capacity for novel interactions to drive or maintain transitions in ecosystem states remains unresolved. We examined temperate reefs that recently underwent complete seaweed canopy loss and tested whether a concurrent increase in tropical herbivores could be maintaining the current canopy-free state. Turf-grazing herbivorous fishes increased in biomass and diversity, and displayed feeding rates comparable to global coral reefs. Canopy-browsing herbivores displayed high (~ 10,000 g 100 m(-2) ) and stable biomass between 2006 and 2013. Tropical browsers had the highest abundance in 2013 and displayed feeding rates approximately three times higher than previously observed on coral reefs. These observations suggest that tropical herbivores are maintaining previously kelp-dominated temperate reefs in an alternate canopy-free state by grazing turfs and preventing kelp reestablishment. This remarkable ecosystem highlights the sensitivity of biotic interactions and ecosystem stability to warming and extreme disturbance events.