Exposure proximal immune correlates analysis.

Immune response decays over time, and vaccine-induced protection often wanes. Understanding how vaccine efficacy changes over time is critical to guiding the development and application of vaccines in preventing infectious diseases. The objective of this article is to develop statistical methods that assess the effect of decaying immune responses on the risk of disease and on vaccine efficacy, within the context of Cox regression with sparse sampling of immune responses, in a baseline-naive population. We aim to further disentangle the various aspects of the time-varying vaccine effect, whether direct on disease or mediated through immune responses. Based on time-to-event data from a vaccine efficacy trial and sparse sampling of longitudinal immune responses, we propose a weighted estimated induced likelihood approach that models the longitudinal immune response trajectory and the time to event separately. This approach assesses the effects of the decaying immune response, the peak immune response, and/or the waning vaccine effect on the risk of disease. The proposed method is applicable not only to standard randomized trial designs but also to augmented vaccine trial designs that re-vaccinate uninfected placebo recipients at the end of the standard trial period. We conducted simulation studies to evaluate the performance of our method and applied the method to analyze immune correlates from a phase III SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trial.

SWIFT clustering analysis of intracellular cytokine staining flow cytometry data of the HVTN 105 vaccine trial reveals high frequencies of HIV-specific CD4+ T cell responses and associations with humoral responses.

Introduction: The HVTN 105 vaccine clinical trial tested four combinations of two immunogens - the DNA vaccine DNA-HIV-PT123, and the protein vaccine AIDSVAX B/E. All combinations induced substantial antibody and CD4+ T cell responses in many participants. We have now re-examined the intracellular cytokine staining flow cytometry data using the high-resolution SWIFT clustering algorithm, which is very effective for enumerating rare populations such as antigen-responsive T cells, and also determined correlations between the antibody and T cell responses. Methods: Flow cytometry samples across all the analysis batches were registered using the swiftReg registration tool, which reduces batch variation without compromising biological variation. Registered data were clustered using the SWIFT algorithm, and cluster template competition was used to identify clusters of antigen-responsive T cells and to separate these from constitutive cytokine producing cell clusters. Results: Registration strongly reduced batch variation among batches analyzed across several months. This in-depth clustering analysis identified a greater proportion of responders than the original analysis. A subset of antigen-responsive clusters producing IL-21 was identified. The cytokine patterns in each vaccine group were related to the type of vaccine - protein antigens tended to induce more cells producing IL-2 but not IFN-γ, whereas DNA vaccines tended to induce more IL-2+ IFN-γ+ CD4 T cells. Several significant correlations were identified between specific antibody responses and antigen-responsive T cell clusters. The best correlations were not necessarily observed with the strongest antibody or T cell responses. Conclusion: In the complex HVTN105 dataset, alternative analysis methods increased sensitivity of the detection of antigen-specific T cells; increased the number of identified vaccine responders; identified a small IL-21-producing T cell population; and demonstrated significant correlations between specific T cell populations and serum antibody responses. Multiple analysis strategies may be valuable for extracting the most information from large, complex studies.

High-Dose Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine for Prevention of Cardiovascular and Respiratory Hospitalizations in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-HD) versus standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-SD) in preventing respiratory or cardiovascular hospitalizations in older adults. METHODS: FinFluHD was a phase 3b/4 modified double-blind, randomized pragmatic trial. Enrolment of 121,000 adults ≥65 years was planned over three influenza seasons (October to December 2019-2021). Participants received a single injection of QIV-HD or QIV-SD. The primary endpoint was first occurrence of an unscheduled acute respiratory or cardiovascular hospitalization (ICD-10 primary discharge J/I codes), from ≥14 days post-vaccination until May 31. The study was terminated after one season due to COVID-19; follow-up data for 2019-2020 are presented. RESULTS: 33,093 participants were vaccinated (QIV-HD, n = 16,549; QIV-SD, n = 16,544); 529 respiratory or cardiovascular hospitalizations (QIV-HD, n = 257; QIV-SD, n = 272) were recorded. The rVE of QIV-HD versus QIV-SD to prevent respiratory/cardiovascular hospitalizations was 5.5% (95% CI, -12.4 to 20.7). When prevention of respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations were considered separately, rVE estimates of QIV-HD versus QIV-SD were 5.4% (95% CI, -28.0 to 30.1) and 7.1% (95% CI, -15.0 to 25.0), respectively. Serious adverse reactions were <0.01% in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Despite insufficient statistical power due to the impact of COVID-19, rVE point estimates demonstrated a trend toward a benefit of QIV-HD over QIV-SD. QIV-HD was associated with lower respiratory or cardiovascular hospitalization rates than QIV-SD, with a comparable safety profile. Adequately powered studies conducted over multiple influenza seasons are needed to determine statistical significance of QIV-HD compared with QIV-SD against preventing respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT04137887.

Perspectives of European Patient Advocacy Groups on Volunteer Registries and Vaccine Trials: VACCELERATE Survey Study.

BACKGROUND: The VACCELERATE Pan-European Scientific network aims to strengthen the foundation of vaccine trial research across Europe by following the principles of equity, inclusion, and diversity. The VACCELERATE Volunteer Registry network provides access to vaccine trial sites across the European region and supports a sustainable volunteer platform for identifying potential participants for forthcoming vaccine clinical research. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to approach members of patient advocacy groups (PAGs) across Europe to assess their willingness to register for the VACCELERATE Volunteer Registry and their perspectives related to participating in vaccine trials. METHODS: In an effort to understand how to increase recruitment for the VACCELERATE Volunteer Registry, a standardized survey was developed in English and translated into 8 different languages (Dutch, English, French, German, Greek, Italian, Spanish, and Swedish) by the respective National Coordinator team. The online, anonymous survey was circulated, from March 2022 to May 2022, to PAGs across 10 European countries (Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain, and Sweden) to share with their members. The questionnaire constituted of multiple choice and open-ended questions evaluating information regarding participants' perceptions on participating in vaccine trials and their willingness to become involved in the VACCELERATE Volunteer Registry. RESULTS: In total, 520 responses were collected and analyzed. The PAG members reported that the principal criteria influencing their decision to participate in clinical trials overall are (1) the risks involved, (2) the benefits that will be gained from their potential participation, and (3) the quality and quantity of information provided regarding the trial. The survey revealed that, out of the 520 respondents, 133 individuals across all age groups were "positive" toward registering in the VACCELERATE Volunteer Registry, with an additional 47 individuals reporting being "very positive." Respondents from Northern European countries were 1.725 (95% CI 1.206-2.468) times more likely to be willing to participate in the VACCELERATE Volunteer Registry than respondents from Southern European countries. CONCLUSIONS: Factors discouraging participants from joining vaccine trial registries or clinical trials primarily include concerns of the safety of novel vaccines and a lack of trust in those involved in vaccine development. These outcomes aid in identifying issues and setbacks in present registries, providing the VACCELERATE network with feedback on how to potentially increase participation and enrollment in trials across Europe. Development of European health communication strategies among diverse public communities, especially via PAGs, is the key for increasing patients' willingness to participate in clinical studies.

Reducing Sample Size While Improving Equity in Vaccine Clinical Trials: A Machine Learning-Based Recruitment Methodology with Application to Improving Trials of Hepatitis C Virus Vaccines in People Who Inject Drugs.

Despite the availability of direct-acting antivirals that cure individuals infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV), developing a vaccine is critically needed in achieving HCV elimination. HCV vaccine trials have been performed in populations with high incidence of new HCV infection such as people who inject drugs (PWID). Developing strategies of optimal recruitment of PWID for HCV vaccine trials could reduce sample size, follow-up costs and disparities in enrollment. We investigate trial recruitment informed by machine learning and evaluate a strategy for HCV vaccine trials termed PREDICTEE-Predictive Recruitment and Enrichment method balancing Demographics and Incidence for Clinical Trial Equity and Efficiency. PREDICTEE utilizes a survival analysis model applied to trial candidates, considering their demographic and injection characteristics to predict the candidate's probability of HCV infection during the trial. The decision to recruit considers both the candidate's predicted incidence and demographic characteristics such as age, sex, and race. We evaluated PREDICTEE using in silico methods, in which we first generated a synthetic candidate pool and their respective HCV infection events using HepCEP, a validated agent-based simulation model of HCV transmission among PWID in metropolitan Chicago. We then compared PREDICTEE to conventional recruitment of high-risk PWID who share drugs or injection equipment in terms of sample size and recruitment equity, with the latter measured by participation-to-prevalence ratio (PPR) across age, sex, and race. Comparing conventional recruitment to PREDICTEE found a reduction in sample size from 802 (95%: 642-1010) to 278 (95%: 264-294) with PREDICTEE, while also reducing screening requirements by 30%. Simultaneously, PPR increased from 0.475 (95%: 0.356-0.568) to 0.754 (95%: 0.685-0.834). Even when targeting a dissimilar maximally balanced population in which achieving recruitment equity would be more difficult, PREDICTEE is able to reduce sample size from 802 (95%: 642-1010) to 304 (95%: 288-322) while improving PPR to 0.807 (95%: 0.792-0.821). PREDICTEE presents a promising strategy for HCV clinical trial recruitment, achieving sample size reduction while improving recruitment equity.

Safety and Immunogenicity of the Heterologous 2-Dose Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo Vaccine Regimen in Health Care Providers and Frontliners of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BACKGROUND: In response to recent Ebola epidemics, vaccine development against the Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) has been fast-tracked in the past decade. Health care providers and frontliners working in Ebola-endemic areas are at high risk of contracting and spreading the virus. METHODS: This study assessed the safety and immunogenicity of the 2-dose heterologous Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen (administered at a 56-day interval) among 699 health care providers and frontliners taking part in a phase 2, monocentric, randomized vaccine trial in Boende, the Democratic Republic of Congo. The first participant was enrolled and vaccinated on 18 December 2019. Serious adverse events were collected up to 6 months after the last received dose. The EBOV glycoprotein FANG ELISA (Filovirus Animal Nonclinical Group enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) was used to measure the immunoglobulin G-binding antibody response to the EBOV glycoprotein. RESULTS: The vaccine regimen was well tolerated with no vaccine-related serious adverse events reported. Twenty-one days after the second dose, an EBOV glycoprotein-specific binding antibody response was observed in 95.2% of participants. CONCLUSIONS: The 2-dose vaccine regimen was well tolerated and led to a high antibody response among fully vaccinated health care providers and frontliners in Boende.

Impact of hepatitis B birth dose on immune response in Pakistani children: an open-label, non-inferiority randomized controlled trial, implications for achieving SDG target.

BACKGROUND: Despite presence of hyperendemic areas, the national immunisation schedule in Pakistan does not include a hepatitis B birth dose, placing newborns at an additional risk of acquiring hepatitis B. This study aimed to assess the impact of adding hepatitis B birth dose in existing national vaccination schedule. METHODS: An open label, randomised controlled non-inferiority trial enrolled 296 healthy near-term mothers to intervention and control groups. Newborns in the intervention group received a hepatitis B birth dose along with routine immunisation vaccines, while control group newborns received vaccinations under the national schedule. Seroprotection was measured and compared at birth and 8 weeks after administering the third dose of pentavalent vaccine. The risk ratio of seroprotection was computed and compared with the delta value set at 5%. RESULTS: The study found that 95.8% of infants in the intervention group achieved seroprotection, which was significantly higher than the control group's 58.7%. The difference in risk ratio of seroprotection was 1.62 (CI95: 1.37-1.93), with the upper limit of the CI below the delta margin, confirming non-inferiority. The time interval between birth and the first hepatitis B immunisation shot was a predictor of seroprotection, with an odds ratio of 1.79 (CI95: 1.01-2.9). CONCLUSION: Our study indicates that adding a hepatitis B birth dose to the immunisation schedule in Pakistan is non-inferior to the existing one. This can also contribute towards Pakistan's achievement of the SDG target of reducing hepatitis B surface antigen seroprevalence in children under 5 years of age. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04870021.

Conducting an Ebola vaccine trial in a remote area of the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Challenges, mitigations, and lessons learned.

Conducting a vaccine trial in a low- and middle-income country (LMIC) can present unique challenges and lessons learned. This Ebola vaccine trial, enrolling 699 healthcare providers and frontliners and jointly set up by the University of Antwerp (Sponsor) and the University of Kinshasa (Principal Investigator (PI)), was conducted in Boende, a remote city in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), between December 2019 and October 2022 (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04186000). While being bound by strict ICH-GCP and international funder regulations, this trial, exemplary for being a public-private partnership, required collaboration between several international stakeholders (e.g., two universities, a pharmaceutical company, and a clinical research organization), local communities and government agencies. Here we address several logistical and administrative challenges, cultural differences, language barriers and regulatory, political, and ethical considerations over the trial's 2.5-year duration, while tailoring and adapting the study to the specific local context. Lessons learned include the importance of clear communication with participants in all phases of the study, but also within the study team and among different stakeholders. Challenges, mitigations, and lessons learned are presented in nine categories (e.g., safety management; trial documentation, tools, and materials; communication, staff training and community engagement/sensitization; financial and administrative hurdles; and more). Ultimately, to reach the successful end of the vaccine trial in this remote Ebola endemic area in the DRC, careful planning, collaboration, and great flexibility and adaptability was often required from all involved partners. Despite the encountered challenges, the vaccine trial discussed in this paper was able to obtain high participant retention rates (i.e., 92% of participants completed the study). We hope that other international teams aspiring to conduct similar trials in remote areas of LMICs can learn from the way our challenges were addressed, mitigations developed, and lessons were learned.

Evaluation of the effect of reduced-dose pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedules on vaccine serotype carriage in children and their caretakers in a naïve population in Vietnam: Protocol for a cluster randomized non-inferiority trial.

Introduction: The WHO currently recommends giving pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) as three doses - either three doses in infancy with Pentavalent vaccine (3p+0), or two doses in infancy followed by a booster around 12 months (2p+1). However, their high price is a barrier to introduction and sustainability in low and middle-income countries. We hypothesize that a schedule with a single priming and a booster dose (1p+1) may maintain similar levels of protection for the community by sustaining herd immunity, once circulation of vaccine types has been controlled. Methods and analysis: We will conduct a cluster randomized trial with four intervention arms (1p+1, 0p+1, 2p+1, 3p+0) and three unvaccinated clusters in the 27 communes of Nha Trang, central Vietnam. A PCV catch-up vaccination campaign to all children under three years of age will be performed at the start of the trial. The primary endpoint is non-inferiority of the1p+1 schedule if compared to the WHO standard 2p+1 and 3p+0 schedules in reducing vaccine serotype carriage prevalence in infants. We will also explore impact of 0p+1 schedule. A baseline and annual pneumococcal carriage surveys of 6480 participants per survey covering infants, toddlers and their mothers will be conducted. Ethics and dissemination: Ethical approvals were obtained from the ethical review committees of Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University (151203149-2) and the Ministry of Health, Vietnam (1915/QD-BYT). The results, interpretation and conclusions will be presented at national and international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed open access journals. Trial registration number: NCT02961231.

Assessing the feasibility of Phase 3 vaccine trials against Marburg Virus Disease: A modelling study.

Background: Outbreaks of Marburg virus disease (MVD) are rare and small in size, with only 18 recorded outbreaks since 1967, only two of which involved more than 100 cases. It has been proposed, therefore, that Phase 3 trials for MVD vaccines should be held open over multiple outbreaks until sufficient end points accrue to enable vaccine efficacy (VE) to be calculated. Here we estimate how many outbreaks might be needed for VE to be estimated. Methods: We adapt a mathematical model of MVD transmission to simulate a Phase 3 individually randomised placebo controlled vaccine trial. We assume in the base case that vaccine efficacy is 70% and that 50% of individuals in affected areas are enrolled into the trial (1:1 randomisation). We further assume that the vaccine trial starts two weeks after public health interventions are put in place and that cases occurring within 10 days of vaccination are not included in VE calculations. Results: The median size of simulated outbreaks was 2 cases. Only 0.3% of simulated outbreaks were predicted to have more than 100 MVD cases. 95% of simulated outbreaks terminated before cases accrued in the placebo and vaccine arms. Therefore the number of outbreaks required to estimate VE was large: after 100 outbreaks, the estimated VE was 69% but with considerable uncertainty (95% CIs: 0%-100%) while the estimated VE after 200 outbreaks was 67% (95% CIs: 42%-85%). Altering base-case assumptions made little difference to the findings. In a sensitivity analysis, increasing R0 by 25% and 50% led to an estimated VE after 200 outbreaks of 69% (95% CIs: 53-85%) and 70% (95% CIs: 59-82%), respectively. Conclusions: It is unlikely that the efficacy of any candidate vaccine can be calculated before more MVD outbreaks have occurred than have been recorded to date. This is because MVD outbreaks tend to be small, public health interventions have been historically effective at reducing transmission, and vaccine trials are only likely to start after these interventions are already in place. Hence, it is expected that outbreaks will terminate before, or shortly after, cases start to accrue in the vaccine and placebo arms.

The collective voice of early phase COVID-19 vaccine trial participants: Insights for improving confidence in novel vaccines.

In early 2020, adult volunteers were invited to participate in a first-in-human trial of the COVID-19 vaccine, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, in the United Kingdom (UK) at the height of the global pandemic when there was uncertainty regarding vaccine efficacy and side-effects. We conducted a retrospective survey of these uniquely situated individuals to gain insight into their views about the risks, motivations, and expectations of the trial and potential vaccine deployment. Our data from 349 respondents show that these volunteers were educated to a high-level with a clear understanding of the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as an appreciation of the role of science and research in developing a vaccine to address this global problem. Individuals were primarily motivated with altruistic intent and expressed a desire to contribute to the scientific effort. Respondents appreciated that their participation was associated with risk but appeared comfortable that this risk was low. Through our analysis, we highlight these individuals as a group with strong levels of trust in science and a sense of societal responsibility, and therefore are a potential valuable resource to improve confidence in novel vaccines. Vaccine trial participants could offer a credible collective voice to support positive messaging around vaccination.

Preparing for future European efficacy trials of interventions to prevent HIV and other sexually transmitted infections: Lessons on willingness to participate and barriers to participation from ten German clinics serving behaviorally vulnerable men who have sex with men.

Future efficacy testing of interventions to prevent HIV or other infections will require engagement of vulnerable populations. We characterized willingness to participate in a future HIV vaccine trial and barriers to participation among men who have sex with men in a 12-month German cohort study. Among 1015 participants at enrollment, 604 (60%) reported willingness, 60 (6%) were unwilling, 351 (35%) were unsure or refused to answer. Among those unwilling, the primary reason was fear of getting HIV. Among those willing, reasons included protection against HIV and furthering scientific knowledge. In a multivariable logistic regression model, higher odds of willingness to participate were seen among participants at the 12-month visit (aOR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04-1.15) and with prior knowledge of HIV vaccine research (aOR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.06-1.23). Educating potential participants about vaccine research may facilitate recruitment and participation in future trials of HIV vaccine candidates and other prevention interventions.

VACCELERATE Site Network: Real-time definition of clinical study capacity in Europe.

BACKGROUND: The inconsistent European vaccine trial landscape rendered the continent of limited interest for vaccine developers. The VACCELERATE consortium created a network of capable clinical trial sites throughout Europe. VACCELERATE identifies and provides access to state-of-the-art vaccine trial sites to accelerate clinical development of vaccines. METHODS: Login details for the VACCELERATE Site Network (vaccelerate.eu/site-network/) questionnaire can be obtained after sending an email to. Interested sites provide basic information, such as contact details, affiliation with infectious disease networks, main area of expertise, previous vaccine trial experience, site infrastructure and preferred vaccine trial settings. In addition, sites can recommend other clinical researchers for registration in the network. If directly requested by a sponsor or sponsor representative, the VACCELERATE Site Network pre-selects vaccine trial sites and shares basic study characteristics provided by the sponsor. Interested sites provide feedback with short surveys and feasibility questionnaires developed by VACCELERATE and are connected with the sponsor to initiate the site selection process. RESULTS: As of April 2023, 481 sites from 39 European countries have registered in the VACCELERATE Site Network. Of these, 137 (28.5 %) sites have previous experience conducting phase I trials, 259 (53.8 %) with phase II, 340 (70.7 %) with phase III, and 205 (42.6 %) with phase IV trials, respectively. Infectious diseases were reported as main area of expertise by 274 sites (57.0 %), followed by any kind of immunosuppression by 141 (29.3 %) sites. Numbers are super additive as sites may report clinical trial experience in several indications. Two hundred and thirty-one (47.0 %) sites have the expertise and capacity to enrol paediatric populations and 391 (79.6 %) adult populations. Since its launch in October 2020, the VACCELERATE Site Network has been used 21 times for academic and industry trials, mostly interventional studies, focusing on different pathogens such as fungi, monkeypox virus, Orthomyxoviridae/influenza viruses, SARS-CoV-2, or Streptococcus pneumoniae/pneumococcus. CONCLUSIONS: The VACCELERATE Site Network enables a constantly updated Europe-wide mapping of experienced clinical sites interested in executing vaccine trials. The network is already in use as a rapid-turnaround single contact point for the identification of vaccine trials sites in Europe.

The Impact of Educational Intervention on Willingness to Enroll in a Clinical Trial of a Gonorrhea Vaccine.

Globally, >80 million new gonorrhea infections occur annually. Here, we assessed barriers to and influences on participation in a gonorrhea clinical trial and the impact of educational intervention. The survey was fielded in the US in March 2022. Higher enrollment of Black/African Americans and younger individuals than represented in the US demographic distribution reflected the higher incidence of gonorrhea in these groups. Behavioral characteristics and baseline attitudes toward vaccination were collected. Participants were probed on their knowledge of and likelihood to enroll in general and gonorrhea vaccine trials. Participants hesitant to enroll in a gonorrhea vaccine trial were given nine bullets of basic facts about the disease and asked again to rank their likelihood to enroll. Overall, 450 individuals completed the survey. Fewer participants were willing (quite/very likely) to join a gonorrhea versus a general vaccine trial (38.2% [172/450] vs. 57.8% [260/450]). The likelihood to enroll in any vaccine trial or a gonorrhea vaccine trial was greater with higher self-declared knowledge (Spearman's ρ = 0.277 [p < 0.001] and 0.316 [p < 0.001], respectively) and baseline openness towards vaccination (p < 0.001 for both). Self-declared awareness of gonorrhea was associated with age (p = 0.001), education (p = 0.031), and ethnicity/race (p = 0.002), with older, more educated, and Black/African Americans having higher awareness. Males (p = 0.001) and those with more sexual partners (p < 0.001) were more likely to enroll in a gonorrhea vaccine trial. Educational intervention had a significant (p < 0.001) impact on hesitancy. Improvement in willingness to enroll in a gonorrhea vaccine trial was greatest in those initially marginally hesitant and lowest in those initially strongly hesitant. Basic educational intervention has the potential to improve recruitment into gonorrhea vaccine trials.

Immunogenicity and safety of homologous and heterologous booster vaccination of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (COVISHIELD™) and BBV152 (COVAXIN®): a non-inferiority phase 4, participant and observer-blinded, randomised study.

Background: Primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination has been shown to wane with time and provide lower protection from disease with new viral variants, prompting the WHO to recommend the administration of booster doses. We determined the safety and immunogenicity of homologous or heterologous boosters with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (COVISHIELD™) or BBV152 (COVAXIN®), the two vaccines used widely for primary immunization in India, in participants who had already received two primary doses of these vaccines. Methods: Participants primed with two doses each of COVISHIELD™ or COVAXIN® 12-36 weeks previously, were randomised to receive either COVISHIELD™ or COVAXIN® booster in a 1:1 ratio. The primary outcome was day 28 post-booster anti-spike IgG seropositivity and secondary outcomes were anti-spike IgG levels and assessment of safety and reactogenicity. The results of 90 days intention-to-treat analysis are presented. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (CTRI/2021/08/035648). Findings: In the COVISHIELD™ primed group with 200 participants, the seropositivity 28 days post booster in the heterologous COVAXIN® arm was 99% and non-inferior to the homologous COVISHIELD™ arm, which was also 99% (difference 0%; 95% CI: -2.8% to 2.7%). The geometric mean concentration (GMC) of anti-spike antibodies following heterologous COVAXIN® boost on day 28 was 36,190.78 AU/mL (95% CI: 30,526.64-42,905.88) while the GMC following homologous COVISHIELD™ boost was 97,445.09 AU/mL (82,626.97-114,920.7). In the COVAXIN® primed group with 204 participants, the seropositivity 28 days post booster in the heterologous COVISHIELD™ arm was 100% and non inferior to the homologous COVAXIN® arm which was 96% (difference 4%, 95% CI: 0.2%-7.8%). The GMC following heterologous COVISHIELD™ boost was 241,681.6 AU/mL (95% CI: 201,380.2-290,048.3) compared to homologous COVAXIN® boost, which was 48,473.94 AU/mL (95% CI: 38,529.56-60,984.95). The day 28 geometric mean ratio (GMR) of the anti-spike IgG between the heterologous and homologous boosted arms was 0.42 (95% CI: 0.34-0.52) in the COVISHIELD™ primed group and 5.11 (95% CI: 3.83-6.81) in the COVAXIN® primed group. There were no related serious adverse events reported in any group. Interpretation: Homologous and heterologous boosting with COVISHIELD™ or COVAXIN® in COVISHIELD™ or COVAXIN® primed individuals are immunogenic and safe. A heterologous boost with COVISHIELD™ after COVAXIN® prime offers the best immune response among the four combinations evaluated. Funding: Azim Premji Foundation and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Expected endpoints from future chikungunya vaccine trial sites informed by serological data and modeling.

In recent decades, there has been an increased interest in developing a vaccine for chikungunya. However, due to its unpredictable transmission, planning for a chikungunya vaccine trial is challenging. To inform decision making on the selection of sites for a vaccine efficacy trial, we developed a new framework for projecting the expected number of endpoint events at a given site. In this framework, we first accounted for population immunity using serological data collated from a systematic review and used it to estimate parameters related to the timing and size of past outbreaks, as predicted by an SIR transmission model. Then, we used that model to project the infection attack rate of a hypothetical future outbreak, in the event that one were to occur at the time of a future trial. This informed projections of how many endpoint events could be expected if a trial were to take place at that site. Our results suggest that some sites may have sufficient transmission potential and susceptibility to support future vaccine trials, in the event that an outbreak were to occur at those sites. In general, we conclude that sites that have experienced outbreaks within the past 10 years may be poorer targets for chikungunya vaccine efficacy trials in the near future. Our framework also generates projections of the numbers of endpoint events by age, which could inform study participant recruitment efforts.

Semiparametric additive time-varying coefficients model for longitudinal data with censored time origin.

Statistical analysis of longitudinal data often involves modeling treatment effects on clinically relevant longitudinal biomarkers since an initial event (the time origin). In some studies including preventive HIV vaccine efficacy trials, some participants have biomarkers measured starting at the time origin, whereas others have biomarkers measured starting later with the time origin unknown. The semiparametric additive time-varying coefficient model is investigated where the effects of some covariates vary nonparametrically with time while the effects of others remain constant. Weighted profile least squares estimators coupled with kernel smoothing are developed. The method uses the expectation maximization approach to deal with the censored time origin. The Kaplan-Meier estimator and other failure time regression models such as the Cox model can be utilized to estimate the distribution and the conditional distribution of left censored event time related to the censored time origin. Asymptotic properties of the parametric and nonparametric estimators and consistent asymptotic variance estimators are derived. A two-stage estimation procedure for choosing weight is proposed to improve estimation efficiency. Numerical simulations are conducted to examine finite sample properties of the proposed estimators. The simulation results show that the theory and methods work well. The efficiency gain of the two-stage estimation procedure depends on the distribution of the longitudinal error processes. The method is applied to analyze data from the Merck 023/HVTN 502 Step HIV vaccine study.

COVID-19 site readiness initiative: Building clinical trial capacity for vaccine efficacy trials in Latin America in response to the pandemic.

According to the World Health Organization, the American region has the highest coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic. This humanitarian tragedy presented the possibility of generating efficacy data from COVID-19 vaccine trials. The race to develop successful vaccines imposed a high demand for trained healthcare personnel and clinical sites where large scale randomized clinical trials could be conducted. This site readiness initiative, funded by the Bill and Melinda GatesFoundation (BMGF), was carried out to rapidly build site capacity for running COVID-19 vaccine trials in Latin America. Twenty-two sites across 7 countries were selected and received funding. Site selection was based on defined feasibility criteria which deemed these sites as suitable for running vaccine efficacy trials. Criteria for selection included investigator and core permanent staff experience, public health measures in place for COVID-19, import/export requirements for study drug and biological specimens, a clear and accelerated ethical and regulatory approval process for COVID-19 trials. Training was tailored and delivered according to the experience level of the investigator and site staff, and included GCP training, standard operating procedures (SOP) fundamentals, conducting vaccine trials, COVID-19 pathophysiology, and vaccine trials lessons learned. Most of the grant funds were utilized for space expansion and renovation (46 %) followed by purchase of equipment (36 %); the remaining 18 % was spent on human resources. By the end of this site readiness initiative project, which took approximately 4 months, 21 of 22 (95 %) sites had agreements in place or were in discussions with sponsors to conduct large scale COVID-19 vaccine trials.

The need for more holistic immune profiling in next-generation SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trials.

First-generation anit-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines were highly successful. They rapidly met an unforeseen emergency need, saved millions of lives, and simultaneously eased the burden on healthcare systems worldwide. The first-generation vaccines, however, focused too narrowly on antibody-based immunity as the sole marker of vaccine trial success, resulting in large knowledge gaps about waning vaccine protection, lack of vaccine robustness to viral mutation, and lack of efficacy in immunocompromised populations. Detailed reviews of first-generation vaccines, including their mode of action and geographical distribution, have been published elsewhere. Second-generation clinical trials must address these gaps by evaluating a broader range of immune markers, including those representing cell-mediated immunity, to ensure the most protective and long-lasting vaccines are brought to market.

A platform trial design for preventive vaccines against Marburg virus and other emerging infectious disease threats.

BACKGROUND: The threat of a possible Marburg virus disease outbreak in Central and Western Africa is growing. While no Marburg virus vaccines are currently available for use, several candidates are in the pipeline. Building on knowledge and experiences in the designs of vaccine efficacy trials against other pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, we develop designs of randomized Phase 3 vaccine efficacy trials for Marburg virus vaccines. METHODS: A core protocol approach will be used, allowing multiple vaccine candidates to be tested against controls. The primary objective of the trial will be to evaluate the effect of each vaccine on the rate of virologically confirmed Marburg virus disease, although Marburg infection assessed via seroconversion could be the primary objective in some cases. The overall trial design will be a mixture of individually and cluster-randomized designs, with individual randomization done whenever possible. Clusters will consist of either contacts and contacts of contacts of index cases, that is, ring vaccination, or other transmission units. RESULTS: The primary efficacy endpoint will be analysed as a time-to-event outcome. A vaccine will be considered successful if its estimated efficacy is greater than 50% and has sufficient precision to rule out that true efficacy is less than 30%. This will require approximately 150 total endpoints, that is, cases of confirmed Marburg virus disease, per vaccine/comparator combination. Interim analyses will be conducted after 50 and after 100 events. Statistical analysis of the trial will be blended across the different types of designs. Under the assumption of a 6-month attack rate of 1% of the participants in the placebo arm for both the individually and cluster-randomized populations, the most likely sample size is about 20,000 participants per arm. CONCLUSION: This event-driven design takes into the account the potentially sporadic spread of Marburg virus. The proposed trial design may be applicable for other pathogens against which effective vaccines are not yet available.