Timing decisions as the next frontier for collective intelligence.

The past decade has witnessed a growing interest in collective decision making, particularly the idea that groups can make more accurate decisions compared with individuals. However, nearly all research to date has focused on spatial decisions (e.g., food patches). Here, we highlight the equally important, but severely understudied, realm of temporal collective decision making (i.e., decisions about when to perform an action). We illustrate differences between temporal and spatial decisions, including the irreversibility of time, cost asymmetries, the speed-accuracy tradeoff, and game theoretic dynamics. Given these fundamental differences, temporal collective decision making likely requires different mechanisms to generate collective intelligence. Research focused on temporal decisions should lead to an expanded understanding of the adaptiveness and constraints of living in groups.

Promoting Erroneous Divergent Opinions Increases the Wisdom of Crowds.

The aggregation of many lay judgments generates surprisingly accurate estimates. This phenomenon, called the "wisdom of crowds," has been demonstrated in domains such as medical decision-making and financial forecasting. Previous research identified two factors driving this effect: the accuracy of individual assessments and the diversity of opinions. Most available strategies to enhance the wisdom of crowds have focused on improving individual accuracy while neglecting the potential of increasing opinion diversity. Here, we study a complementary approach to reduce collective error by promoting erroneous divergent opinions. This strategy proposes to anchor half of the crowd to a small value and the other half to a large value before eliciting and averaging all estimates. Consistent with our mathematical modeling, four experiments (N = 1,362 adults) demonstrated that this method is effective for estimation and forecasting tasks. Beyond the practical implications, these findings offer new theoretical insights into the epistemic value of collective decision-making.

Interaction among participants in a collective intelligence experiment: an emotional approach.

Introduction: The construct of collective intelligence assumes that groups have a better capacity than individuals to deal with complex, poorly defined problems. The digital domain allows us to analyze this premise under circumstances different from those in the physical environment: we can gather an elevated number of participants and generate a large quantity of data. Methods: This study adopted an emotional perspective to analyze the interactions among 794 adolescents dealing with a sexting case on an online interaction platform designed to generate group answers resulting from a certain degree of achieved consensus. Results: Our results show that emotional responses evolve over time in several phases of interaction. From the onset, the emotional dimension predicts how individual responses will evolve, particularly in the final consensus phase. Discussion: Responses gradually become more emotionally complex; participants tend to identify themselves with the victim in the test case while increasingly rejecting the aggressors.

[The DoC-feeling scale, a paramedical assessment tool improving the diagnostic accuracy of the state of consciousness of non-communicative patients]. / L'échelle DoC-feeling, un outil d'évaluation paramédical améliorant la précision diagnostique de l'état de conscience des patients non communicants.

The Neurological Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital cares for patients with severe brain injuries, which can lead to acute or chronic disorders of consciousness. To assess the patient's state of consciousness, the team relies on precise clinical examination. This article presents the assessment tools used to establish the patient's prognosis.

Collective Intelligence Increases Diagnostic Accuracy in a General Practice Setting.

BACKGROUND: General practitioners (GPs) work in an ill-defined environment where diagnostic errors are prevalent. Previous research indicates that aggregating independent diagnoses can improve diagnostic accuracy in a range of settings. We examined whether aggregating independent diagnoses can also improve diagnostic accuracy for GP decision making. In addition, we investigated the potential benefit of such an approach in combination with a decision support system (DSS). METHODS: We simulated virtual groups using data sets from 2 previously published studies. In study 1, 260 GPs independently diagnosed 9 patient cases in a vignette-based study. In study 2, 30 GPs independently diagnosed 12 patient actors in a patient-facing study. In both data sets, GPs provided diagnoses in a control condition and/or DSS condition(s). Each GP's diagnosis, confidence rating, and years of experience were entered into a computer simulation. Virtual groups of varying sizes (range: 3-9) were created, and different collective intelligence rules (plurality, confidence, and seniority) were applied to determine each group's final diagnosis. Diagnostic accuracy was used as the performance measure. RESULTS: Aggregating independent diagnoses by weighing them equally (i.e., the plurality rule) substantially outperformed average individual accuracy, and this effect increased with increasing group size. Selecting diagnoses based on confidence only led to marginal improvements, while selecting based on seniority reduced accuracy. Combining the plurality rule with a DSS further boosted performance. DISCUSSION: Combining independent diagnoses may substantially improve a GP's diagnostic accuracy and subsequent patient outcomes. This approach did, however, not improve accuracy in all patient cases. Therefore, future work should focus on uncovering the conditions under which collective intelligence is most beneficial in general practice. HIGHLIGHTS: We examined whether aggregating independent diagnoses of GPs can improve diagnostic accuracy.Using data sets of 2 previously published studies, we composed virtual groups of GPs and combined their independent diagnoses using 3 collective intelligence rules (plurality, confidence, and seniority).Aggregating independent diagnoses by weighing them equally substantially outperformed average individual GP accuracy, and this effect increased with increasing group size.Combining independent diagnoses may substantially improve GP's diagnostic accuracy and subsequent patient outcomes.

Complexity biomechanics: a case study of dragonfly wing design from constituting composite material to higher structural levels.

Presenting a novel framework for sustainable and regenerative design and development is a fundamental future need. Here we argue that a new framework, referred to as complexity biomechanics, which can be used for holistic analysis and understanding of natural mechanical systems, is key to fulfilling this need. We also present a roadmap for the design and development of intelligent and complex engineering materials, mechanisms, structures, systems, and processes capable of automatic adaptation and self-organization in response to ever-changing environments. We apply complexity biomechanics to elucidate how the different structural components of a complex biological system as dragonfly wings, from ultrastructure of the cuticle, the constituting bio-composite material of the wing, to higher structural levels, collaboratively contribute to the functionality of the entire wing system. This framework not only proposes a paradigm shift in understanding and drawing inspiration from natural systems but also holds potential applications in various domains, including materials science and engineering, biomechanics, biomimetics, bionics, and engineering biology.

Radical Collective Intelligence and the Reimagining of Cognitive Science.

To introduce our special issue How Minds Work: The Collective in the Individual, we propose "radical CI," a form of collective intelligence, as a new paradigm for cognitive science. Radical CI posits that the representations and processes necessary to perform the cognitive functions that humans perform are collective entities, not encapsulated by any individual. To explain cognitive performance, it appeals to the distribution of cognitive labor on the assumption that the human project runs on countless interactions between locally acting individuals with specialized skills that each retain a small part of the relevant information. Some of the papers in the special issue appeal to radical CI to account for a variety of cognitive phenomena including memory performance, metacognition, belief updating, reasoning, and problem-solving. Other papers focus on the cultural and institutional practices that make radical CI possible.

A New Approach Based on Collective Intelligence to Solve Traveling Salesman Problems.

This paper presents a novel approach based on the ant system algorithm for solving discrete optimization problems. The proposed method is based on path construction, path improvement techniques, and the footprint mechanism. Some information about the optimization problem and collective intelligence is used in order to create solutions in the path construction phase. In the path improvement phase, neighborhood operations are applied to the solution, which is the best of the population and is obtained from the path construction phase. The collective intelligence in the path construction phase is based on a footprint mechanism, and more footprints on the arc improve the selection chance of this arc. A selection probability is also balanced by using information about the problem (e.g., the distance between nodes for a traveling salesman problem). The performance of the proposed method has been investigated on 25 traveling salesman problems and compared with state-of-the-art algorithms. The experimental comparisons show that the proposed method produced comparable results for the problems dealt with in this study.

The Emergence of Specialized Roles Within Groups.

Humans routinely form groups to achieve goals that no individual can accomplish alone. Group coordination often brings to mind synchrony and alignment, where all individuals do the same thing (e.g., driving on the right side of the road, marching in lockstep, or playing musical instruments on a regular beat). Yet, effective coordination also typically involves differentiation, where specialized roles emerge for different members (e.g., prep stations in a kitchen or positions on an athletic team). Role specialization poses a challenge for computational models of group coordination, which have largely focused on achieving synchrony. Here, we present the CARMI framework, which characterizes role specialization processes in terms of five core features that we hope will help guide future model development: Communication, Adaptation to feedback, Repulsion, Multi-level planning, and Intention modeling. Although there are many paths to role formation, we suggest that roles emerge when each agent in a group dynamically allocates their behavior toward a shared goal to complement what they expect others to do. In other words, coordination concerns beliefs (who will do what) rather than simple actions. We describe three related experimental paradigms-"Group Binary Search," "Battles of the Exes," and "Find the Unicorn"-that we have used to study differentiation processes in the lab, each emphasizing different aspects of the CARMI framework.

Maintaining Transient Diversity Is a General Principle for Improving Collective Problem Solving.

Humans regularly solve complex problems in cooperative teams. A wide range of mechanisms have been identified that improve the quality of solutions achieved by those teams on reaching consensus. We argue that many of these mechanisms work via increasing the transient diversity of solutions while the group attempts to reach a consensus. These mechanisms can operate at the level of individual psychology (e.g., behavioral inertia), interpersonal communication (e.g., transmission noise), or group structure (e.g., sparse social networks). Transient diversity can be increased by widening the search space of possible solutions or by slowing the diffusion of information and delaying consensus. All of these mechanisms increase the quality of the solution at the cost of increased time to reach it. We review specific mechanisms that facilitate transient diversity and synthesize evidence from both empirical studies and diverse formal models-including multiarmed bandits, NK landscapes, cumulative-innovation models, and evolutionary-transmission models. Apparent exceptions to this principle occur primarily when problems are sufficiently simple that they can be solved by mere trial and error or when the incentives of team members are insufficiently aligned. This work has implications for our understanding of collective intelligence, problem solving, innovation, and cumulative cultural evolution.

The Effects of Group Composition and Dynamics on Collective Performance.

As organizations gravitate to group-based structures, the problem of improving performance through judicious selection of group members has preoccupied scientists and managers alike. However, which individual attributes best predict group performance remains poorly understood. Here, we describe a preregistered experiment in which we simultaneously manipulated four widely studied attributes of group compositions: skill level, skill diversity, social perceptiveness, and cognitive style diversity. We find that while the average skill level of group members, skill diversity, and social perceptiveness are significant predictors of group performance, skill level dominates all other factors combined. Additionally, we explore the relationship between patterns of collaborative behavior and performance outcomes and find that any potential gains in solution quality from additional communication between the group members are outweighed by the overhead time cost, leading to lower overall efficiency. However, groups exhibiting more "turn-taking" behavior are considerably faster and thus more efficient. Finally, contrary to our expectation, we find that group compositional factors (i.e., skill level and social perceptiveness) are not associated with the amount of communication between group members nor turn-taking dynamics.

Polarization and the Psychology of Collectives.

Achieving global sustainability in the face of climate change, pandemics, and other global systemic threats will require collective intelligence and collective action beyond what we are currently experiencing. Increasing polarization within nations and populist trends that undercut international cooperation make the problem even harder. Allegiance within groups is often strengthened because of conflict among groups, leading to a form of polarization termed "affective." Hope for addressing these global problems will require recognition of the commonality in threats facing all groups collective intelligence that integrates relevant inputs from all sources but fights misinformation and coordinated, cooperative collective action. Elinor Ostrom's notion of polycentric governance, involving centers of decision-making from the local to the global in a complex interacting framework, may provide a possible pathway to achieve these goals.

Understanding Collective Intelligence: Investigating the Role of Collective Memory, Attention, and Reasoning Processes.

As society has come to rely on groups and technology to address many of its most challenging problems, there is a growing need to understand how technology-enabled, distributed, and dynamic collectives can be designed to solve a wide range of problems over time in the face of complex and changing environmental conditions-an ability we define as "collective intelligence." We describe recent research on the Transaction Systems Model of Collective Intelligence (TSM-CI) that integrates literature from diverse areas of psychology to conceptualize the underpinnings of collective intelligence. The TSM-CI articulates the development and mutual adaptation of transactive memory, transactive attention, and transactive reasoning systems that together support the emergence and maintenance of collective intelligence. We also review related research on computational indicators of transactive-system functioning based on collaborative process behaviors that enable agent-based teammates to diagnose and potentially intervene to address developing issues. We conclude by discussing future directions in developing the TSM-CI to support research on developing collective human-machine intelligence and to identify ways to design technology to enhance it.

Using collective intelligence methods to improve government data infrastructures and promote the use of complex data: The example of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: This paper discusses how collective intelligence (CI) methods can be implemented to improve government data infrastructures, not only to support understanding and primary use of complex national data but also to increase the dissemination and secondary impact of research based on these data. The case study uses the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS), a member of the UK family of census/administrative data longitudinal studies (UKLS). METHODS: A stakeholder-engaged CI approach was applied to inform the transformation of the NILS Research Support Unit (RSU) infrastructure to support researchers in their use of government data, including collaborative decision-making and better dissemination of research outputs. RESULTS: We provide an overview of NILS RSU infrastructure design changes that have been implemented to date, focusing on a website redesign to meet user information requirements and the formation of better working partnerships between data users and providers within the Northern Ireland data landscape. We also discuss the key challenges faced by the design team during this project of transformation. CONCLUSION: Our primary objective to improve government data infrastructure and to increase dissemination and the impact of research based on data was a complex and multifaceted challenge due to the number of stakeholders involved and their often conflicting perspectives. Results from this CI approach have been pivotal in highlighting how NILS RSU can work collaboratively with users to maximize the potential of this data, in terms of forming multidisciplinary networks to ensure the research is utilized in policy and in the literature and providing academic support and resources to attract new researchers.

Wearable Systems for Unveiling Collective Intelligence in Clinical Settings.

Nowadays, there is an ever-growing interest in assessing the collective intelligence (CI) of a team in a wide range of scenarios, thanks to its potential in enhancing teamwork and group performance. Recently, special attention has been devoted on the clinical setting, where breakdowns in teamwork, leadership, and communication can lead to adverse events, compromising patient safety. So far, researchers have mostly relied on surveys to study human behavior and group dynamics; however, this method is ineffective. In contrast, a promising solution to monitor behavioral and individual features that are reflective of CI is represented by wearable technologies. To date, the field of CI assessment still appears unstructured; therefore, the aim of this narrative review is to provide a detailed overview of the main group and individual parameters that can be monitored to evaluate CI in clinical settings, together with the wearables either already used to assess them or that have the potential to be applied in this scenario. The working principles, advantages, and disadvantages of each device are introduced in order to try to bring order in this field and provide a guide for future CI investigations in medical contexts.

Incentivizing free riders improves collective intelligence in social dilemmas.

Collective intelligence challenges are often entangled with collective action problems. For example, voting, rating, and social innovation are collective intelligence tasks that require costly individual contributions. As a result, members of a group often free ride on the information contributed by intrinsically motivated people. Are intrinsically motivated agents the best participants in collective decisions? We embedded a collective intelligence task in a large-scale, virtual world public good game and found that participants who joined the information system but were reluctant to contribute to the public good (free riders) provided more accurate evaluations, whereas participants who rated frequently underperformed. Testing the underlying mechanism revealed that a negative rating bias in free riders is associated with higher accuracy. Importantly, incentivizing evaluations amplifies the relative influence of participants who tend to free ride without altering the (higher) quality of their evaluations, thereby improving collective intelligence. These results suggest that many of the currently available information systems, which strongly select for intrinsically motivated participants, underperform and that collective intelligence can benefit from incentivizing free riding members to engage. More generally, enhancing the diversity of contributor motivations can improve collective intelligence in settings that are entangled with collective action problems.

Science Communication as a Collective Intelligence Endeavor: A Manifesto and Examples for Implementation.

Effective science communication is challenging when scientific messages are informed by a continually updating evidence base and must often compete against misinformation. We argue that we need a new program of science communication as collective intelligence-a collaborative approach, supported by technology. This would have four key advantages over the typical model where scientists communicate as individuals: scientific messages would be informed by (a) a wider base of aggregated knowledge, (b) contributions from a diverse scientific community, (c) participatory input from stakeholders, and (d) better responsiveness to ongoing changes in the state of knowledge.

Innovation-facilitating networks create inequality.

Theories of innovation often balance contrasting views that either smart people create smart things or smartly constructed institutions create smart things. While population models have shown factors including population size, connectivity and agent behaviour as crucial for innovation, few have taken the individual-central approach seriously by examining the role individuals play within their groups. To explore how network structures influence not only population-level innovation but also performance among individuals, we studied an agent-based model of the Potions Task, a paradigm developed to test how structure affects a group's ability to solve a difficult exploration task. We explore how size, connectivity and rates of information sharing in a network influence innovation and how these have an impact on the emergence of inequality in terms of agent contributions. We find, in line with prior work, that population size has a positive effect on innovation, but also find that large and small populations perform similarly per capita; that many small groups outperform fewer large groups; that random changes to structure have few effects on innovation in the task; and that the highest performing agents tend to occupy more central positions in the network. Moreover, we show that every network factor which improves innovation leads to a proportional increase in inequality of performance in the network, creating 'genius effects' among otherwise 'dumb' agents in both idealized and real-world networks.