Link Prediction in Dynamic Social Networks Combining Entropy, Causality, and a Graph Convolutional Network Model.

Link prediction is recognized as a crucial means to analyze dynamic social networks, revealing the principles of social relationship evolution. However, the complex topology and temporal evolution characteristics of dynamic social networks pose significant research challenges. This study introduces an innovative fusion framework that incorporates entropy, causality, and a GCN model, focusing specifically on link prediction in dynamic social networks. Firstly, the framework preprocesses the raw data, extracting and recording timestamp information between interactions. It then introduces the concept of "Temporal Information Entropy (TIE)", integrating it into the Node2Vec algorithm's random walk to generate initial feature vectors for nodes in the graph. A causality analysis model is subsequently applied for secondary processing of the generated feature vectors. Following this, an equal dataset is constructed by adjusting the ratio of positive and negative samples. Lastly, a dedicated GCN model is used for model training. Through extensive experimentation in multiple real social networks, the framework proposed in this study demonstrated a better performance than other methods in key evaluation indicators such as precision, recall, F1 score, and accuracy. This study provides a fresh perspective for understanding and predicting link dynamics in social networks and has significant practical value.

An Influence Maximization Algorithm for Dynamic Social Networks Based on Effective Links.

The connection between users in social networks can be maintained for a certain period of time, and the static network structure formed provides the basic conditions for various kinds of research, especially for discovering customer groups that can generate great influence, which is important for product promotion, epidemic prevention and control, and public opinion supervision, etc. However, the computational process of influence maximization ignores the timeliness of interaction behaviors among users, the screened target users cannot diffuse information well, and the time complexity of relying on greedy rules to handle the influence maximization problem is high. Therefore, this paper analyzes the influence of the interaction between nodes in dynamic social networks on information dissemination, extends the classical independent cascade model to a dynamic social network dissemination model based on effective links, and proposes a two-stage influence maximization solution algorithm (Outdegree Effective Link-OEL) based on node degree and effective links to enhance the efficiency of problem solving. In order to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm, five typical influence maximization methods are compared and analyzed on four real data sets. The results show that the OEL algorithm has good performance in propagation range and running time.

Using network synchrony to identify drivers of social dynamics.

Social animals frequently show dynamic social network patterns, the consequences of which are felt at the individual and group level. It is often difficult, however, to identify what drivers are responsible for changes in these networks. We suggest that patterns of network synchronization across multiple social groups can be used to better understand the relative contributions of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers. When groups are socially separated, but share similar physical environments, the extent to which network measures across multiple groups covary (i.e. network synchrony) can provide an estimate of the relative roles of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers. As a case example, we use allogrooming data from three adjacent vervet monkey groups to generate dynamic social networks. We found that network strength was strongly synchronized across the three groups, pointing to shared extrinsic environmental conditions as the driver. We also found low to moderate levels of synchrony in network modularity, suggesting that intrinsic social processes may be more important in driving changes in subgroup formation in this population. We conclude that patterns of network synchronization can help guide future research in identifying the proximate mechanisms behind observed social dynamics in animal groups.

Creativity in temporal social networks: how divergent thinking is impacted by one's choice of peers.

Creativity is viewed as one of the most important skills in the context of future-of-work. In this paper, we explore how the dynamic (self-organizing) nature of social networks impacts the fostering of creative ideas. We run six trials (N = 288) of a web-based experiment involving divergent ideation tasks. We find that network connections gradually adapt to individual creative performances, as the participants predominantly seek to follow high-performing peers for creative inspirations. We unearth both opportunities and bottlenecks afforded by such self-organization. While exposure to high-performing peers is associated with better creative performances of the followers, we see a counter-effect that choosing to follow the same peers introduces semantic similarities in the followers' ideas. We formulate an agent-based simulation model to capture these intuitions in a tractable manner, and experiment with corner cases of various simulation parameters to assess the generality of the findings. Our findings may help design large-scale interventions to improve the creative aptitude of people interacting in a social network.

The Convoy Model and Later-Life Family Relationships.

The convoy model of social relations was developed to provide a heuristic framework for conceptualizing and understanding social relationships. In this Original Voices article, we begin with an overview of the theoretical tenets of the convoy model, including its value in addressing situational and contextual influences, especially variability in family forms and cultural diversity across the life span, but particularly in older adulthood. We also consider the contributions of the convoy model to the field of family gerontology by illustrating concepts, methods, and measures used to test the model, as well as its usefulness and limitations in addressing contemporary issues facing older adults. Finally, we discuss opportunities for innovation and application of the convoy model to the study of later-life family relationships. In summary, we emphasize the benefits and inclusiveness of the convoy model for guiding current and future research to address challenges facing family gerontology now and in the future.

Transmission routes of rare seasonal diseases: the case of norovirus infections.

Norovirus (NoV) is the most commonly recognized cause of acute gastroenteritis, with over a million cases globally per year. While usually self-limiting, NoV poses a substantial economic burden because it is highly contagious and there are multiple transmission routes. Infection occurs through inhalation of vomitus; faecal-oral spread; and food, water and environmental contamination. While the incidence of the disease is predictably seasonal, much less is known about the relative contribution of the various exposure pathways in causing disease. Additionally, asymptomatic excretion and viral shedding make forecasting disease burden difficult. We develop a novel stochastic dynamic network model to investigate the contributions of different transmission pathways in multiple coupled social networks representing schools, hospitals, care-homes and family households in a community setting. We analyse how the networks impact on transmission. We used ward-level demographic data from Northumberland, UK to create a simulation cohort. We compared the results with extant data on NoV cases from the IID2 study. Connectivity across the simulated cohort was high. Cases of NoV showed marked seasonality, peaking in early winter and declining through the summer. For the first time, we show that fomites and food appear to be the most important exposure routes in determining the population burden of disease. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Dynamic network partnerships and social contagion drive cooperation.

Both reciprocity and positive assortment (like with like) are predicted to promote the evolution of cooperation, yet how partners influence each other's behaviour within dynamic networks is not well understood. One way to test this question is to partition phenotypic variation into differences among individuals in the expression of cooperative behaviour (the 'direct effect'), and plasticity within individuals in response to the social environment (the 'indirect effect'). A positive correlation between these two sources of variation, such that more cooperative individuals elicit others to cooperate, is predicted to facilitate social contagion and selection on cooperative behaviour. Testing this hypothesis is challenging, however, because it requires repeated measures of behaviour across a dynamic social landscape. Here, we use an automated data-logging system to quantify the behaviour of 179 wire-tailed manakins, birds that form cooperative male-male coalitions, and we use multiple-membership models to test the hypothesis that dynamic network partnerships shape within-individual variation in cooperative behaviour. Our results show strong positive correlations between a bird's own sociality and his estimated effect on his partners, consistent with the hypothesis that cooperation begets cooperation. These findings support the hypothesis that social contagion can facilitate selection for cooperative behaviour within social networks.

Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery. Our study adds to emerging evidence that dynamic networks can change predictions of disease dynamics, especially if the disease shows low transmissibility and a long infectious period, and when environmental conditions lead to enhanced between-group contact after an infectious agent has been introduced.