Dynamic inconsistency in great apes.

When presented with the option of either an immediate benefit or a larger, later reward, we may behave impatiently by choosing instant gratification. Nonetheless, when we can make the same decision ahead of time and plan for the future, we tend to make more patient choices. Here, we explored whether great apes share this core feature of human decision-making, often referred to as dynamic inconsistency. We found that orangutans, bonobos, and gorillas tended to act impatiently and with considerable variability between individuals when choosing between an immediate reward and a larger-later reward, which is a commonly employed testing method in the field. However, with the inclusion of a front-end delay for both alternatives, their decisions became more patient and homogeneous. These results show that great apes are dynamically inconsistent. They also suggest that, when choosing between future outcomes, they are more patient than previously reported. We advocate for the inclusion of diverse time ranges in comparative research, especially considering the intertwinement of intertemporal choices and future-oriented behavior.

Network meta-analysis: Looping back.

This discussion contribution provides some subjective early history of network meta-analysis and also proposes a new bipartite graph structure to better represent multi-arm trials.

A comparison of two models for detecting inconsistency in network meta-analysis.

The application of network meta-analysis is becoming increasingly widespread, and for a successful implementation, it requires that the direct comparison result and the indirect comparison result should be consistent. Because of this, a proper detection of inconsistency is often a key issue in network meta-analysis as whether the results can be reliably used as a clinical guidance. Among the existing methods for detecting inconsistency, two commonly used models are the design-by-treatment interaction model and the side-splitting models. While the original side-splitting model was initially estimated using a Bayesian approach, in this context, we employ the frequentist approach. In this paper, we review these two types of models comprehensively as well as explore their relationship by treating the data structure of network meta-analysis as missing data and parameterizing the potential complete data for each model. Through both analytical and numerical studies, we verify that the side-splitting models are specific instances of the design-by-treatment interaction model, incorporating additional assumptions or under certain data structure. Moreover, the design-by-treatment interaction model exhibits robust performance across different data structures on inconsistency detection compared to the side-splitting models. Finally, as a practical guidance for inconsistency detection, we recommend utilizing the design-by-treatment interaction model when there is a lack of information about the potential location of inconsistency. By contrast, the side-splitting models can serve as a supplementary method especially when the number of studies in each design is small, enabling a comprehensive assessment of inconsistency from both global and local perspectives.

Can weekend catch-up sleep decrease the risk of cognitive dysfunction in older adults?

PURPOSE: This study investigated whether weekend catch-up sleep was related to a decreased risk of cognitive dysfunction in older Taiwanese adults by using self-reported diaries and objective accelerometer measurements. METHODS: This cross-sectional study enrolled participants who were aged ≥ 65 years and had the capability to walk independently from a medical center in Taipei City, Taiwan, between September 2020 and December 2022. Self-reported sleep diaries and tri-axial accelerometers were used to record and measure sleep-related data for 7 consecutive nights. Weekend catch-up sleep was defined as the mean of weekend sleep time minus the mean of weekdays sleep time. Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) was evaluated the risk of cognitive dysfunction. The association between weekend catch-up sleep and the MMSE score was examined using a binary logistic regression model. RESULTS: A total of 215 older adults (53.0% female; 80.5 ± 7.1 years old; 11.6% at risk of cognitive dysfunction) were included. In the adjusted model (adjusted for sex, education level, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and total accelerometer wear time), both the self-reported sleep diaries (odds ratio [OR] = 0.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.09-0.69, P = 0.007) and the accelerometer data (OR = 0.27, 95% CI = 0.10-0.70, P = 0.007) indicated that weekend catch-up sleep could decrease the risk of cognitive dysfunction by 73-74%. CONCLUSION: The study findings suggest that there is an association between weekend catch-up sleep and lower risk for cognitive decline. The causal relationship between weekend catch-up sleep and cognitive function in older adults should be further investigated in a study with longitudinal design.

Cognitive Speed in Neurodegenerative Disease: Comparing Mean Rate and Inconsistency Within and Across the Alzheimer's and Lewy Body Spectra in the COMPASS-ND Study.

Background: Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Lewy body disease (LBD) are characterized by early and gradual worsening perturbations in speeded cognitive responses. Objective: Using simple and choice reaction time tasks, we compared two indicators of cognitive speed within and across the AD and LBD spectra: mean rate (average reaction time across trials) and inconsistency (within person variability). Methods: The AD spectrum cohorts included subjective cognitive impairment (SCI, n = 28), mild cognitive impairment (MCI, n = 121), and AD (n = 45) participants. The LBD spectrum included Parkinson's disease (PD, n = 32), mild cognitive impairment in PD (PD-MCI, n = 21), and LBD (n = 18) participants. A cognitively unimpaired (CU, n = 39) cohort served as common benchmark. We conducted multivariate analyses of variance and discrimination analyses. Results: Within the AD spectrum, the AD cohort was slower and more inconsistent than the CU, SCI, and MCI cohorts. The MCI cohort was slower than the CU cohort. Within the LBD spectrum, the LBD cohort was slower and more inconsistent than the CU, PD, and PD-MCI cohorts. The PD-MCI cohort was slower than the CU and PD cohorts. In cross-spectra (corresponding cohort) comparisons, the LBD cohort was slower and more inconsistent than the AD cohort. The PD-MCI cohort was slower than the MCI cohort. Discrimination analyses clarified the group difference patterns. Conclusions: For both speed tasks, mean rate and inconsistency demonstrated similar sensitivity to spectra-related comparisons. Both dementia cohorts were slower and more inconsistent than each of their respective non-dementia cohorts.

Do time preferences predict diabetes outcomes? A combined survey and register-based study.

Identifying determinants of heterogeneity in health outcomes continues to be a focus in the health economic literature. In this study, we analyze whether time preferences predict health outcomes in individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) who use insulin pump therapy to manage their condition. We collect data on time preferences using a hypothetical matching task and estimate aggregate as well as individual-level discounting parameters using the exponential, hyperbolic, and quasi-hyperbolic discounting models. These parameters are then regressed against essential diabetes-related health outcomes obtained from registries and medical records, including glycemic control, kidney function, BMI, and number of hospital contacts. Our analyses indicate that all three discounting models fit the data equally well. Except for hospital contacts, we find robust evidence that impatience, as reflected by higher discounting, predicts worse health outcomes. Additionally, present bias is associated with worse kidney function. Our findings suggest that time preferences can explain some of the heterogeneity in health among individuals with T1D and call for increased attention on the role of time preferences in the design of disease management programs for individuals with chronic conditions.

Relaxed minds for healthier food choice at school: A field experiment in southern Mexico.

Stress leads to unhealthy food choices since the school-age stage. Yet, there is limited evidence particularly in low- and middle-income countries regarding the impact of stress-reduction strategies on school-age children's food choices. Such aspects were crucial during the recent COVID-19 pandemic, which exacerbated psychological distress and unhealthier food choices among children. Two years after the pandemic began, we conducted a field experiment in southern Mexico to assess the impact of stress-reduction strategies on the food choices of over 1400 children aged 9-12. Half of the school-classes in the sample were randomly assigned to a stress reduction strategy namely meditation, which comprised six audios with basic relaxation techniques and intuitive messages to guide food choices. Additionally, all participants received information signalling that an amaranth snack was nutritious (i.e., the healthy snack), which was paired with a chocolate bar (i.e., the unhealthy snack) as part of a snack choice experiment. Students that practiced meditation were slightly more likely to choose the healthy snack than those in the control group, but the effect was not statistically significant. Upon collecting their snack, students had the chance to exchange their original choice for the other snack. Students that meditated were more likely to exchange their originally chosen "unhealthy snack" towards the healthy snack than students in the control group. The meditation program effectively reduced chronic stress among treated children. The effect was larger among students attending schools in lower-income areas. Our study sheds some light on the challenges to translate an improved psychological well-being into healthier food choices at school.

Inconsistencies in rater-based assessments mainly affect borderline candidates: but using simple heuristics might improve pass-fail decisions.

INTRODUCTION: Research in various areas indicates that expert judgment can be highly inconsistent. However, expert judgment is indispensable in many contexts. In medical education, experts often function as examiners in rater-based assessments. Here, disagreement between examiners can have far-reaching consequences. The literature suggests that inconsistencies in ratings depend on the level of performance a to-be-evaluated candidate shows. This possibility has not been addressed deliberately and with appropriate statistical methods. By adopting the theoretical lens of ecological rationality, we evaluate if easily implementable strategies can enhance decision making in real-world assessment contexts. METHODS: We address two objectives. First, we investigate the dependence of rater-consistency on performance levels. We recorded videos of mock-exams and had examiners (N=10) evaluate four students' performances and compare inconsistencies in performance ratings between examiner-pairs using a bootstrapping procedure. Our second objective is to provide an approach that aids decision making by implementing simple heuristics. RESULTS: We found that discrepancies were largely a function of the level of performance the candidates showed. Lower performances were rated more inconsistently than excellent performances. Furthermore, our analyses indicated that the use of simple heuristics might improve decisions in examiner pairs. DISCUSSION: Inconsistencies in performance judgments continue to be a matter of concern, and we provide empirical evidence for them to be related to candidate performance. We discuss implications for research and the advantages of adopting the perspective of ecological rationality. We point to directions both for further research and for development of assessment practices.

What's Wrong with Restrictivism?

Emily Carroll and Parker Crutchfield propose a new inconsistency argument against abortion restrictivism. In response, I raised several objections to their argument. Recently Carroll and Crutchfield have replied and seem to be under the impression that I'm a restrictivist. This is puzzling, since my criticism of their view included a very thinly veiled, but purposely more charitable, anti-restrictivist inconsistency argument. In this response, I explain how Carroll and Crutchfield mischaracterize my position and that of the restrictivist.

Relationship between an inconsistent degree of financial literacy and inconsistent decision-making in intertemporal choices.

Intertemporal choice refers to the decision-making process involving trade-offs between rewards available at different points in time (such as choosing between smaller immediate rewards versus larger rewards later on). Empirical evidence often deviates from the exponential preferences predicted by the normative model. A hyperbolic discount function better mirrors individual behavior, explaining temporal inconsistency - whereby preferences vary over time by applying a higher discount in the present. Hyperbolic preferences are associated with addictive behaviors, such as smoking and alcohol consumption, as well as depression or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Established measures in the literature quantify the extent of deviation from exponential trend exhibited by hyperbolic preferences. In addition to behavioral and cognitive factors, it is essential to incorporate financial literacy into the examination of individual decision-making behaviors. The present study analyzes the relationship between the degree of decision-making inconsistency and the degree of financial literacy inconsistency across three dimensions: knowledge, behavior, and attitudes. It aims to illustrate while financial literacy is important, it is not sufficient to ensure rational choices. Rather, it reveals a strong correlation among its dimensions. The results of this research could be included when creating investor profiles required by MiFID, considering insights from behavioral finance studies in these profiles. What is more, understanding psychological biases that can influence financial decision-making empowers investors to make more informed decisions and avoid common pitfalls.

Pre-acquired Functional Connectivity Predicts Choice Inconsistency.

Economic choice theories usually assume that humans maximize utility in their choices. However, studies have shown that humans make inconsistent choices, leading to suboptimal behavior, even without context-dependent manipulations. Previous studies showed that activation in value and motor networks are associated with inconsistent choices at the moment of choice. Here, we investigated if the neural predispositions, measured before a choice task, can predict choice inconsistency in a later risky choice task. Using functional connectivity (FC) measures from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI), derived before any choice was made, we aimed to predict subjects' inconsistency levels in a later-performed choice task. We hypothesized that rsfMRI FC measures extracted from value and motor brain areas would predict inconsistency. Forty subjects (21 females) completed a rsfMRI scan before performing a risky choice task. We compared models that were trained on FC that included only hypothesized value and motor regions with models trained on whole-brain FC. We found that both model types significantly predicted inconsistency levels. Moreover, even the whole-brain models relied mostly on FC between value and motor areas. For external validation, we used a neural network pretrained on FC matrices of 37,000 subjects and fine-tuned it on our data and again showed significant predictions. Together, this shows that the tendency for choice inconsistency is predicted by predispositions of the nervous system and that synchrony between the motor and value networks plays a crucial role in this tendency.

Prevalence and variability of restrictive care practice use (physical restraint, seclusion and chemical restraint) in adult mental health inpatient settings: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing consensus to reduce the use of restrictive care practices in mental health settings to minimise the physical and psychological complications for patients. However, data regarding restrictive care practice use and factors contributing to variations in the proportion estimates has not previously been synthesised. AIMS: This study aimed to synthesise evidence on (1) the pooled proportions of physical restraint, seclusion or chemical restraint in adult mental health inpatients and (2) sources of variability in these proportion estimates. METHODS: Studies were identified from Scopus, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Web of Science, Embase and CINAHL databases following the PRISMA 2020 guidelines. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies published in English language from 1 January 2010 to 15 August 2022. Binomial data were pooled using a random effect model, with 95% confidence intervals. Meta-regression was also computed to identify factors that may contribute to variations in the proportion estimates. RESULTS: A total of 77 studies were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of physical restraint, seclusion and chemical restraint was 14.4%, 15.8% and 25.7%, respectively. Data were heterogeneous across studies (I2 > 99%). Reporting practices and geographical locations contributed to the variability in the reported estimates of restrictive care practices, with studies from Asian countries reporting higher proportions. CONCLUSION: There appear differences between geographical locations in the proportion of restrictive practices in mental health inpatients; however, this is complicated by how these prevalence data have been measured and defined. Consistency in the reporting of restrictive care practices in mental health is required to make valid comparisons between geographical regions, policy settings and practice innovations. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Efforts are needed to develop training programmes and policy changes to ensure consistency in defining and reporting of restrictive care practices in mental health facilities. PATIENT/PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: This is a systematic review that analysed data from previously published studies, and there was no patient/public contribution in this study. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: The protocol for this review has been registered to PROSPERO: CRD42022335167.

[Conclusion instead of exclusion-The clinical diagnosis of functional movement disorders]. / Abschluss statt Ausschluss ­ die klinische Diagnosesicherung funktioneller Bewegungsstörungen.

Functional neurological movement disorders are common in neurological practice and lead to a high degree of impairment and chronification. Affected patients usually receive a diagnosis with considerable delay and often do not get disease-specific treatment. The reasons for this delay are related to extensive diagnostic measures to exclude other nonfunctional neurological diseases. As a consequence, functional movement disorders are typically communicated as diagnoses of exclusion, which makes it difficult for patients to understand and accept the diagnosis. This is particularly unfortunate, because in the majority of patients the diagnosis can be made with confidence based on clinical features, i.e., inconsistency and incongruence. The clarification of the symptoms and the resulting treatment options should be supplemented by patient-friendly explanations of the pathophysiological basis of the disease. In this way, patients are enabled to understand and accept the diagnosis. Moreover, it can put an end to the search for a diagnosis, which can sometimes take decades, and paves the way for treatment. Thus, the diagnosis by exclusion itself becomes the starting point for treatment and can itself have a therapeutic effect.

Frequency of use and adequacy of Cochrane risk of bias tool 2 in non-Cochrane systematic reviews published in 2020: Meta-research study.

Risk of bias (RoB) assessment is essential to the systematic review methodology. The new version of the Cochrane RoB tool for randomized trials (RoB 2) was published in 2019 to address limitations identified since the first version of the tool was published in 2008 and to increase the reliability of assessments. This study analyzed the frequency of usage of the RoB 2 and the adequacy of reporting the RoB 2 assessments in non-Cochrane reviews published in 2020. This meta-research study included non-Cochrane systematic reviews of interventions published in 2020. For the reviews that used the RoB 2 tool, we analyzed the reporting of the RoB 2 assessment. Among 3880 included reviews, the Cochrane RoB 1 tool was the most frequently used (N = 2228; 57.4%), followed by the Cochrane RoB 2 tool (N = 267; 6.9%). From 267 reviews that reported using the RoB 2 tool, 213 (79.8%) actually used it. In 26 (12.2%) reviews, erroneous statements were used to indicate the RoB 2 assessment. Only 20 (9.4%) reviews presented a complete RoB 2 assessment with a detailed table of answers to all signaling questions. The judgment of risk of bias by the RoB 2 tool was not justified by a comment in 158 (74.2%) reviews. Only in 33 (14.5%) of reviews the judgment in all domains was justified in the accompanying comment. In most reviews (81.7%), the RoB was inadequately assessed at the study level. In conclusion, the majority of non-Cochrane reviews published in 2020 still used the Cochrane RoB 1 tool. Many reviews used the RoB 2 tool inadequately. Further studies about the uptake and the use of the RoB 2 tool are needed.

Twenty years of network meta-analysis: Continuing controversies and recent developments.

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is an extension of pairwise meta-analysis (PMA) which combines evidence from trials on multiple treatments in connected networks. NMA delivers internally consistent estimates of relative treatment efficacy, needed for rational decision making. Over its first 20 years NMA's use has grown exponentially, with applications in both health technology assessment (HTA), primarily re-imbursement decisions and clinical guideline development, and clinical research publications. This has been a period of transition in meta-analysis, first from its roots in educational and social psychology, where large heterogeneous datasets could be explored to find effect modifiers, to smaller pairwise meta-analyses in clinical medicine on average with less than six studies. This has been followed by narrowly-focused estimation of the effects of specific treatments at specific doses in specific populations in sparse networks, where direct comparisons are unavailable or informed by only one or two studies. NMA is a powerful and well-established technique but, in spite of the exponential increase in applications, doubts about the reliability and validity of NMA persist. Here we outline the continuing controversies, and review some recent developments. We suggest that heterogeneity should be minimized, as it poses a threat to the reliability of NMA which has not been fully appreciated, perhaps because it has not been seen as a problem in PMA. More research is needed on the extent of heterogeneity and inconsistency in datasets used for decision making, on formal methods for making recommendations based on NMA, and on the further development of multi-level network meta-regression.

Inundation dynamics of the natural and manmade wetlands in the Mayurakshi River basin, Eastern India.

The present study aimed to measure wetland inundation inconsistency level (IIL) at a spatial scale to appraise the potential serviceability in the Mayurakshi river basin of Eastern India. Inconsistency was used for measuring both wetland water presence area and proxy water depth based on historical satellite images from 1988 to 2022. Applying inconsistency assessment, it was tried to assess how water appearance at a pixel is inconsistent and how average proxy water depth is inconsistent to attain. Four manmade and natural floodplain wetland complexes were taken for this. The study revealed about 51-53% and 59-86% manmade and natural wetland losses respectively and the IIL was also found significantly higher (30-50%) in the cases of natural wetlands in pre and post-monsoon seasons. The scenario is worse in pre-monsoon season in the natural wetlands. Inconsistency of water depth anomaly (IWDA) was also significantly increased almost in the same trend. Discharge control through hydro-engineering structures like dams, barrages, and embankments; river and wetland connecting tie channel loss; and loss of groundwater support are some crucial reasons behind the hydrological inconsistency of wetlands. Growing loss and IIL are caused for concerned economic and ecological adversity. So, the findings would be very useful for taking necessary planning for wetland management and restoration.

A REML method for the evidence-splitting model in network meta-analysis.

Checking for possible inconsistency between direct and indirect evidence is an important task in network meta-analysis. Recently, an evidence-splitting (ES) model has been proposed, that allows separating direct and indirect evidence in a network and hence assessing inconsistency. A salient feature of this model is that the variance for heterogeneity appears in both the mean and the variance structure. Thus, full maximum likelihood (ML) has been proposed for estimating the parameters of this model. Maximum likelihood is known to yield biased variance component estimates in linear mixed models, and this problem is expected to also affect the ES model. The purpose of the present paper, therefore, is to propose a method based on residual (or restricted) maximum likelihood (REML). Our simulation shows that this new method is quite competitive to methods based on full ML in terms of bias and mean squared error. In addition, some limitations of the ES model are discussed. While this model splits direct and indirect evidence, it is not a plausible model for the cause of inconsistency.

Double jeopardy: Exploring the moderating effect of educational mismatch in the relationship between work-family conflict and depressive symptoms among Korean working women.

RATIONALE: Despite a growing body of empirical evidence on the detrimental effects of work-family conflict (WFC) on psychological health, little attention has been given to whether educational mismatch in the workplace, which refers to the perceived level of match between one's attained education and the required educational level for a position, may exacerbate these effects. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between WFC, educational mismatch, and depressive symptoms in Korean working women, with a particular focus on the potential moderating effects of educational mismatch on the association between WFC and depressive symptoms. METHODS: The data utilized for this study were collected from 5174 married working women over five waves (16,610 person-observations) of the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Women and Families spanning 8 years between 2012 and 2020. Fixed effects (FE) models were estimated to account for unobserved individual-level heterogeneity. RESULTS: FE estimates indicated that WFC is associated with an increase in depressive symptoms, even after accounting for unobserved confounding factors and time-varying covariates. The interaction model provides evidence for the moderating role of educational mismatch in the association between WFC and depressive symptoms. The positive association between WFC and depressive symptoms was more pronounced among those who perceive themselves as "overeducated." The estimated coefficient for the association was about 45% larger for those who perceive themselves as "overeducated" than their "well-matched" counterparts. CONCLUSION: The study's findings suggest a robust link between WFC and depressive symptoms and further elaborate on how this association varies depending on educational mismatch. In Korea, where conservative gender role norms of female-caregiver ideology are still prevalent, WFC and educational mismatch can act as double jeopardy, exacerbating the mental health of working women.

A formal analysis of inconsistent decisions in intertemporal choice through subjective time perception.

The framework of this paper is subjective time perception in the context of intertemporal choice, that is to say, the process of making decisions on dated outcomes (monetary or not) by an individual or a group of individuals. In this setting, the Discounted Utility model and, more specifically, the exponential discounting have been the paradigmatic methodology used to measure the preferences on delayed outcomes. However, this model can only be applied to consistent choices in which individuals do not change their preferences when the involved rewards are delayed the same time interval. Unfortunately, this is not the case of several decision scenarios where time is viewed as a subjective variable. The objective of this paper is to formally analyze the consistency of intertemporal choices governed by a discount function, derived from the exponential, where time has been distorted according to certain psychological traits of the subjects involved in the decision-making. More specifically, the different types of decreasing impatience will be characterized by focusing on the distortion derived from the subjective perspective of time. The findings of this research are very relevant in order to explain the time-related behavior of decision-makers in some noteworthy fields such as finance, psychology, marketing or sociology.

Cognitive intra-individual variability in breast cancer survivors: A systematic review.

Subjective and objective cognitive impairments in Breast Cancer Survivors (BCS) often do not correlate. One important contribution to the reported disparities may be the reliance on mean-based cognitive performance. Cognitive intra-individual variability (IIV) may provide important insights into these reported disparities. Cognitive IIV refers to the fluctuation in performance for an individual on either one cognitive task across a trial or dispersed across tasks within a neuropsychological test battery. The purpose of this systematic review was to search for and examine the literature on cognitive IIV in BCS. The PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) approach was used to search for all articles related to cognitive IIV in BCS. MEDLINE (via PubMed), Embase, and Scopus databases were searched using detailed search terms and strategies. Initially, 164 articles were retrieved but only 4 articles met the criteria for this systematic review. BCS differed from healthy controls in similar ways across the four studies, generally demonstrating similar performance but showing increased cognitive IIV for the more difficult tasks. Differences were enhanced later during chemotherapy. The four studies provide support for cognitive IIV as a useful measure to detect the subtle objective cognitive change often reported by BCS but frequently not detected by standard normed-based cognitive testing. Unexpectedly, measures of cognitive IIV were not consistently associated with self-reported measures of cognition.