From MGUS to multiple myeloma: Unraveling the unknown of precursor states.

In the 1960s, through laboratory-based investigations of peripheral blood partnered with detailed clinical annotations, Dr. Waldenström described a condition he called "benign monoclonal gammopathy". These patients were asymptomatic with a detectable monoclonal protein, and did not meet imaging and laboratory criteria for multiple myeloma. In 1978, through observational retrospective review of medical records, Dr. Kyle observed that not all cases of monoclonal gammopathy were benign. He introduced the term monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) to describe a condition that may potentially progress to multiple myeloma (MM), highlighting clinical inability in predicting which patients might progress. In 1980, Drs. Kyle and Greipp described 6 cases which did not fit the definitions of MGUS or MM, and they remained asymptomatic after at least 5 years of follow-up; they were proposed to have smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM). Over time, SMM was defined by arbitrary numerical values (≥10 % plasma cells in the bone marrow and serum M-protein concentration ≥ 3 g/dL). Numerous clinical scores have been developed to define high-risk groups for progression to MM. Current statistical models for progression provide only average risk scores, offering limited clinical utility since the risk of progression at an individual level remains unknown. Physician-scientists are focusing on emerging technologies, such as whole genome sequencing, tumor microenvironment analysis, and single-cell RNA sequencing, to understand precursor states at a molecular level. The overarching goal of these technologies is to better characterize monoclonal gammopathy and other myeloma precursor states. This will enable clinicians to provide more precise, individualized risk assessments and ultimately improve patient outcomes. This review outlines the history of MM precursor states, current definitions, challenges in risk stratification models, and the role of emerging technologies in enhancing predictions and outcomes.

Acceptability of sexual history questions in a gender-neutral risk assessment for blood donation.

BACKGROUND: Currently in Australia, men are deferred from donating blood if they have had sex with another man within the past 3 months. However, a proposed gender-neutral assessment (GNA) process will ask all donors questions about sex with new or multiple recent partners, with deferral based on responses to a question about anal sex. Understanding the acceptability of such questions among existing and potential blood donors is paramount for successful implementation of GNA. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We used data from a nationally representative survey to estimate the levels of comfort with the proposed GNA questions among the Australian population and subgroups, defined by self-reported ethnicity and religion. Respondents were aged over 18 and living in Australia. Results were weighted to represent the population. RESULTS: Most of the 5178 respondents described themselves as comfortable with answering questions about new partners (73.1%) or anal sex (64.0%) to donate blood. However, 2.2% and 4.5% indicated that questions about new sex partners and anal sex, respectively, would stop them from donating, and 4.4% and 7.7% respectively, said they were "completely uncomfortable." By religion, the least comfortable were Muslim or Eastern Orthodox respondents, and by country of birth, the least comfortable were those born in the Middle East, followed by those born in Southern Europe and Asia. DISCUSSION: GNA appears to be broadly acceptable in the Australian context, but our findings suggest that key GNA questions are less acceptable in some population subgroups, indicating a need for targeted campaigns that consider cultural sensitivities.

Measuring concordance and discordance between selected individual characteristics and corresponding neighborhood-level social determinants of health.

Background: Individuals reside within communities influenced by various social determinants impacting health, which may harmonize or conflict at individual and neighborhood levels. While some experience concordant circumstances, discordance is prevalent, yet poorly understood due to the lack of a universally accepted method for quantifying it. This paper proposes a methodology to address this gap. Methods: We propose a systematic approach to operationalize concordance and discordance between individual and neighborhood social determinants, using household income (HHI) (continuous) and race/ethnicity (categorical) as examples for individual social determinants. We demonstrated our method with a small dataset that combines self-reported individual data with geocoded neighborhood level. We anticipate that the risk profiles created by either self-reported individual data or neighborhood-level data alone will differ from patterns demonstrated by typologies based on concordance and discordance. Results: In our cohort, it was revealed that 20% of patients experienced discordance between their HHIs and neighborhood characteristics. Additionally, 38% reside in racially/ethnically concordant neighborhoods, 23% in discordant ones, and 39% in neutral ones. Conclusion: Our study introduces an innovative approach to defining and quantifying the notions of concordance and discordance in individual attributes concerning neighborhood-level social determinants. It equips researchers with a valuable tool to conduct more comprehensive investigations into the intricate interplay between individuals and their environments. Ultimately, this methodology facilitates a more accurate modeling of the true impacts of social determinants on health, contributing to a deeper understanding of this complex relationship.

Individual risk factors and prediction of gambling disorder in online sports bettors - the longitudinal RIGAB study.

Introduction: While research in online sports betting is dominated by studies using objective player tracking data from providers to identify risky gambling behavior, basicresearch has identified various putative individual risk factors assumed to underlie the development of gambling disorder across all types of gambling. This study aims to examine individual risk factors and their longitudinal clinical relevance in online sports bettors. Methods: German online sports bettors (N = 607, Mage = 34, 92% male) from a provider based sample took part in an online survey. The study team randomly preselected customers to be invited. N = 325 (53,45%) of the participants also took part in an online follow-up survey one year later. Crosssectional and longitudinal associations of putative risk factors and DSM-5 gambling disorder in online sports bettors were analyzed. These risk factors include alcohol and tobacco use, impulsivity, difficulties in emotion identification, emotion regulation strategies, comorbid mental disorders and stress. Results: We found more pronounced impulsivity, difficulties in emotion identification, emotion suppression, comorbid mental disorders and stress were cross-sectionally associated with gambling disorder, and longitudinally predicted gambling disorder in online sports bettors (with the exception of emotion suppression). In an overall model only lack of premeditation and perceived helplessness remained significant as predictors for gambling disorder. Online sports bettors with gambling disorder predominantly showed more pronounced risk factors, which were also confirmed longitudinally as relevant for the maintenance of gambling disorder. Discussion: Risk factors such as impulsivity and stress and appropriate coping mechanisms should consequently be integrated not only into prevention efforts to identify individuals at risk early, but also into intervention efforts to tailor treatment.

Antiplatelet therapy guided by CYP2C19 point-of-care pharmacogenetics plus multidimensional treatment decisions.

Aim: Implementation of CYP2C19 point-of-care (POC) pharmacogenetic (PGx) testing with personalized treatment recommendations. Methods: POC CYP2C19 genotyping plus expert evaluation of risk factors for ischemic and bleeding events. Results: 167 patients underwent PGx testing, 54 (32.3%) were CYP2C19 loss of function carriers, and POC versus standard PGx analysis results for *2 and *3 variants matched in 100%. Antiplatelet therapy was adjusted in 44 patients (26.3%), but always required consideration of patient-specific factors. Conclusion: CYP2C19 POC-PGx is reliable and offers clinically relevant advantages for immediate evidence-based adaptations of antiplatelet therapy, whereas in less acute cases conventional PGx testing can also have advantages. Antiplatelet therapy has become more complex, and implementation of PGx-based personalized antiplatelet therapy requires complementary expert knowledge.

Quantitative risk assessment of China's first liquid hydrogen refueling station.

Hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are among the most important infrastructures for fuel cell vehicles. However, the safety issue of HRSs has become a key constraint to the wide application and development of hydrogen energy. This article presents a quantitative risk assessment of the first liquid HRS (LHRS) in China and conducts a comprehensive assessment in terms of both individual (IR) and societal risks (SRs). The results showed that both the IRs and SRs related to the LHRS exceeded the risk acceptance criteria. The rupture of the flexible hose of the dispenser and the leak from the compressor are the main contributors to these risks. On the other hand, implementing appropriate mitigation measures on the level of the LHRS dispenser and compressor, including the addition of breakaway couplings in the flexible hose of the dispenser, the installation of hydrogen detection sensors, the arrangement of automatic and manual emergency shutdown buttons, and the elevation of the compressor, is capable of reducing the risk of the LHRS to be within the risk acceptance criteria.

Talking numbers: how women and providers use risk scores during and after risk counseling - a qualitative investigation from the NRG Oncology/NSABP DMP-1 study.

OBJECTIVES: Little research exists on how risk scores are used in counselling. We examined (a) how Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) scores are presented during counselling; (b) how women react and (c) discuss them afterwards. DESIGN: Consultations were video-recorded and participants were interviewed after the consultation as part of the NRG Oncology/National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Decision-Making Project 1 (NSABP DMP-1). SETTING: Two NSABP DMP-1 breast cancer care centres in the USA: one large comprehensive cancer centre serving a high-risk population and an academic safety-net medical centre in an urban setting. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty women evaluated for breast cancer risk and their counselling providers were included. METHODS: Participants who were identified as at increased risk of breast cancer were recruited to participate in qualitative study with a video-recorded consultation and subsequent semi-structured interview that included giving feedback and input after viewing their own consultation. Consultation videos were summarised jointly and inductively as a team.tThe interview material was searched deductively for text segments that contained the inductively derived themes related to risk assessment. Subgroup analysis according to demographic variables such as age and Gail score were conducted, investigating reactions to risk scores and contrasting and comparing them with the pertinent video analysis data. From this, four descriptive categories of reactions to risk scores emerged. The descriptive categories were clearly defined after 19 interviews; all 30 interviews fit principally into one of the four descriptive categories. RESULTS: Risk scores were individualised and given meaning by providers through: (a) presenting thresholds, (b) making comparisons and (c) emphasising or minimising the calculated risk. The risk score information elicited little reaction from participants during consultations, though some added to, agreed with or qualified the provider's information. During interviews, participants reacted to the numbers in four primary ways: (a) engaging easily with numbers; (b) expressing greater anxiety after discussing the risk score; (c) accepting the risk score and (d) not talking about the risk score. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the necessity that patients' experiences must be understood and put into relation to risk assessment information to become a meaningful treatment decision-making tool, for instance by categorising patients' information engagement into types. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01399359.

Risk factors for loneliness: A literature review.

RATIONALE: Increasingly, loneliness is being recognised as a serious problem with detrimental effects on health, as well as on social cohesion and community trust. To effectively tackle this complex issue, a clear understanding of the phenomenon and its main drivers is needed. Over years of scientific research on loneliness, many potential risk factors have emerged and been tested empirically. OBJECTIVE: This narrative review of 109 studies provides a concise summary of empirical evidence on the main potential risk factors for loneliness and presents an additional section dedicated to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: Given the very large number of existing studies, emphasis is placed on recent meta-analyses and systematic literature reviews as well as longitudinal studies. Similarly, given the large number of possible risk factors for loneliness, which may differ based on the geographical and cultural context, this review focuses on studies from Europe and North America. RESULTS: The results show that demographic factors often correlate with loneliness, but in many cases the link becomes negligible when controlling for other factors. Often, physical and mental health problems are found to be associated with loneliness, and so are some psychological factors, such as neuroticism or extroversion. Loneliness also depends on the environment in which one lives, and possibly the broader socio-economic and socio-cultural contexts. Nevertheless, the review shows that ultimately everything comes down to the quantity and quality of social relationships. In particular, marital status, living arrangements and the characteristics of one's personal social network are quite consistently found to be among the strongest predictors of loneliness. These main findings about the risk factors for loneliness remained valid also during the COVID-19 pandemic. POLICY IMPLICATIONS: The findings of this review have implications for policy, as understanding who the most vulnerable groups are is key for designing targeted policy solutions that tackle loneliness.

Patterns of Non-Communicable Disease, Multimorbidity, and Population Awareness in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Objective: Ethiopia, like other developing countries, is going through an epidemiological transition, and high rates of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are having a significant impact on the health system; however, there is limited evidence about community level NCD prevalence, multimorbidity, and population awareness that could inform targeted interventions and policy responses. This study aimed to identify factors associated with NCD prevalence, multimorbidity, and population awareness of NCDs in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted with 417 randomly sampled adults. We performed descriptive and logistic regression analyses to evaluate associations between NCD prevalence (cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, chronic kidney disease, and hypertension) multimorbidity (2 or more NCDs) and demographic, socioeconomic, individual risk factors, anthropometrics, knowledge, and attitude. Results: This study reveals that 24% of participating adults have an NCD, and 8% have multimorbidity. One-third (34.5%) have some NCD knowledge, and 75% consider NCDs more dangerous than communicable diseases. We find low NCD prevalence in participants: younger than 40 years of age (AOR 0.17, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.39); with normal body mass index (AOR 0.27, 0.10 to 0.77) and; with a family history of NCD (AOR 7.7, 4.2 to 14.1). Multimorbidity is lower in young adults (AOR 0.08, 0.03 to 0.26). NCD knowledge is higher in men (AOR 1.76, 1.06 to 2.93) and employed adults (AOR 2.91, 1.52 to 5.57), and NCD attitude in normal-weight adults (AOR 3.23, 1.42 to 7.39). Conclusion: This study reveals a high prevalence of NCD and overall low NCD awareness in the population. Age above 40 years, family history of NCD, and weight in the obese category are significant predictors of NCD prevalence. These findings can help health professionals, health offices, and concerned stakeholders to plan targeted health interventions to reduce NCDs in the population.

Hierarchical contribution of individual lifestyle factors and their interactions on adenomatous and serrated polyp risk.

BACKGROUND: Individual colorectal polyp risk factors are well characterized; however, insights into their pathway-specific interactions are scarce. We aimed to identify the impact of individual risk factors and their joint effects on adenomatous (AP) and serrated polyp (SP) risk. METHODS: We collected information on 363 lifestyle and metabolic parameters from 1597 colonoscopy participants, resulting in over 521,000 data points. We used multivariate statistics and machine-learning approaches to assess associations of single variables and their interactions with AP and SP risk. RESULTS: Individual factors and their interactions showed common and polyp subtype-specific effects. Abdominal obesity, high body mass index (BMI), metabolic syndrome, and red meat consumption globally increased polyp risk. Age, gender, and western diet associated with AP risk, while smoking was associated with SP risk. CRC family history was associated with advanced adenomas and diabetes with sessile serrated lesions. Regarding lifestyle factor interactions, no lifestyle or dietary adjustments mitigated the adverse smoking effect on SP risk, whereas its negative effect was exacerbated by alcohol in the conventional pathway. The adverse effect of red meat on SP risk was not ameliorated by any factor, but was further exacerbated by western diet along the conventional pathway. No modification of any factor reduced the negative impact of metabolic syndrome on AP risk, whereas increased fatless fish or meat substitutes' intake mitigated its effect on SP risk. CONCLUSIONS: Individual risk factors and their interactions for polyp formation along the adenomatous and serrated pathways are strongly heterogeneous. Our findings may facilitate tailored lifestyle recommendations and contribute to a better understanding of how risk factor combinations impact colorectal carcinogenesis.

Vaccination and Factors Related to the Clinical Outcome of COVID-19 in Healthcare Workers-A Romanian Front-Line Hospital's Experience.

The study aims to describe the frequency of COVID-19 in healthcare workers (HCWs) in a designated hospital for COVID-19 treatment in Bucharest, Romania, and to explore COVID-19 vaccination and other factors associated with the clinical outcome. We actively surveyed all HCWs from 26 February 2020 to 31 December 2021. Cases were laboratory-confirmed with RT-PCR or rapid test antigen. Epidemiological, demographic, clinical outcomes, vaccination status, and co-morbidities data were collected. Data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel, SPSS, and MedCalc. A total of 490 cases of COVID-19 in HCWs were diagnosed. The comparison groups were related to the severity of the clinical outcome: the non-severe group (279, 64.65%) included mild and asymptomatic cases, and the potentially severe group included moderate and severe cases. Significant differences between groups were registered for high-risk departments (p = 0.0003), exposure to COVID-19 patients (p = 0.0003, vaccination (p = 0.0003), and the presence of co-morbidities (p < 0.0001). Age, obesity, anemia, and exposure to COVID-19 patients predicted the severity of the clinical outcomes (χ2 (4, n = 425) = 65.69, p < 0.001). The strongest predictors were anemia and obesity (OR 5.82 and 4.94, respectively). In HCWs, mild COVID-19 cases were more frequent than severe cases. Vaccination history, exposure, and individual risk influenced the clinical outcome suggesting that measures to protect HCWs and occupational medicine are important for pandemic preparedness.

The impact of adverse childhood experiences on adult depression severity and treatment outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Past research has established that adverse childhood experiences (ACE) are correlated with depression severity. The purpose of the present study was to examine how the number and nature of ACE exposure is associated with symptomatology and treatment outcomes in adult patients with treatment resistant depression (TRD). METHODS: Participants include 454 patients with a diagnosis of major depression or persistent depressive disorder. A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to assess whether number of ACEs was associated with certain outcomes. Linear regression analyses were performed to model the associations between the five ACE subtypes (e.g., sexual abuse, physical violence, injury/illness, childhood grief, and parental upheaval) and symptom severity. Logistic regression analyses were then used to model the association between ACE subtypes and history of lifetime suicide attempt(s) and inpatient admission(s). RESULTS: Greater ACE exposure was associated with more severe symptomatology and treatment outcomes, but these differences were only seen between patients reporting no ACEs versus 3+ ACEs. Only the subtypes of violence and illness/injury were significant predictors of more severe symptomatology. The ACE subtypes of sexual trauma and violence uniquely predicted a lifetime suicide attempt(s), and only the subtype of sexual trauma predicted lifetime inpatient admission(s). LIMITATIONS: Limitations of the present study include retrospective adult assessments of childhood trauma, lack of data on ACE severity and timing, and the cross-sectional reporting of multiple study measures. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to multiple ACE subtypes, particularly sexual and physical trauma, is associated with depression symptom severity, and history of suicidality, and inpatient admission(s).

Endogenous humoral determinants of vascular endothelial dysfunction as triggers of acute poisoning complications.

The vascular endothelium is not only the semipermeable membrane that separates tissue from blood but also an organ that regulates inflammation, vascular tone, blood clotting, angiogenesis and synthesis of connective tissue proteins. It is susceptible to the direct cytotoxic action of numerous xenobiotics and to the acute hypoxia that accompanies acute poisoning. This damage is superimposed on the preformed state of the vascular endothelium, which, in turn, depends on many humoral factors. The probability that an exogenous toxicant will cause life-threatening dysfunction of the vascular endothelium, thereby complicating the course of acute poisoning, increases with an increase in the content of endogenous substances in the blood that disrupt endothelial function. These include ammonia, bacterial endotoxin, indoxyl sulfate, para-cresyl sulfate, trimethylamine N-oxide, asymmetric dimethylarginine, glucose, homocysteine, low-density and very-low-density lipoproteins, free fatty acids and products of intravascular haemolysis. Some other endogenous substances (albumin, haptoglobin, haemopexin, biliverdin, bilirubin, tetrahydrobiopterin) or food-derived compounds (ascorbic acid, rutin, omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, etc.) reduce the risk of lethal vascular endothelial dysfunction. The individual variability of the content of these substances in the blood contributes to the stochasticity of the complications of acute poisoning and is a promising target for the risk reduction measures. Another feasible option may be the repositioning of drugs that affect the function of the vascular endothelium while being currently used for other indications.

Risk Factors Associated With Femorotomy or Fracture During Cementless Stem Removal and Generation of an Individual Predictive Risk Score.

BACKGROUND: Femorotomy is a commonly used technique during cementless stem removal but should be preferred in selective revision cases to prevent intraoperative femoral fracture associated with deteriorated clinical outcome. Our aim was to assess the risk factors for fracture or femorotomy and develop a predictive risk stratification score. METHODS: A monocentric retrospective cohort including 202 patients was analyzed. Thirty six candidate prognostic factors were assessed. RESULTS: The following independent predictors of fracture or femorotomy were identified: presence of a "bracket sign" (Odds Ratio [OR]: 10.857; 95% Confidence interval [CI]: 2.613-45.115; P = .001) defined as a distal spot weld between the surface of the implant and closest endosteum, bone contact in zone 2 (OR: 4.700; 95% CI: 1.827-12.089; P = .001), 6 (OR: 4.966; 95% CI: 1.823-13.530; P = .002), 12 (OR: 9.660; 95% CI: 3.715-25.116; P < .0001), 13 (OR: 2.958; 95% CI: 1.009-8.021; P = .033), and global hypertrophy (OR: 0.170; 95% CI: 0.036-0.806; P = .026). The prognostic score, named Femorotomy INcidence Numeric scoring system, had good performance and discriminability; the area under the curve of the model was 0.924 (95% CI: 0.878-0.969). CONCLUSION: The only independent risk factors were those assessed on X-ray (eg, bracket sign, bone contact in zones 2, 6, 12, and 13), while global hypertrophy was protective. We noticed the importance of differentiating pedestals and "bracket signs"; the latter is an indicator of fixation of the stem. We developed a risk prediction score (Femorotomy INcidence Numeric score) of fracture or femorotomy that can be used as a companion tool to assess the risk for doing an early osteotomy of the femur.

Assessing Risk Acceptability and Tolerability in Italian Tunnels with the Quantum Gu@larp Model.

Road tunnels are associated with numerous risks including traffic accidents and fires, posing threats to individual or group users. Key risk indicators such as Risk Quantum, Individual Risk, Societal Risk, and Expected Number of Fatalities are instrumental in evaluating the level of risk exposure. These indicators empower Rights-Holders and Duty-Holders to report hazards, prevent disasters, and implement timely remedial measures. A crucial indicator, the Scenario Risk Quantum, has its roots in the forensic evaluation of responsibility in a fatal tunnel accident in the UK since 1949. The Quantum of Risk of each design scenario, reasonably selected among rational and practicable possibilities, has both a deterministic and probabilistic character. The Risk Tolerability and Acceptability criteria are modelled according to risk indicators by selecting the parameters according to ethical principles and societal policy. Scenarios are meticulously identified, described, probabilised and assigned probabilities prior to the quantitative risk analysis. These risk indicators are integral to the risk assessment process. This article delves into the understanding of these indicators within the context of Italian road tunnels, employing the Quantum Gu@larp Model to analyse Risk Acceptability and Tolerability.

Circadian Variations and Associated Factors in Patients with Ischaemic Heart Disease.

Circadian rhythms have been identified in cardiovascular diseases, and cardiovascular risk factors can modify the circadian rhythm. The purpose of this study was to describe the onset of ischaemic heart disease symptomatology in relation to the date and time, the day of the week of presentation, the season, AMI location and severity and the level of influence of individual patient characteristics in a retrospective cross-sectional study involving 244 ischaemic heart disease patients from the intensive care unit of La Ribera Hospital (Spain). The onset of pain was more frequent in the morning, the season with the highest frequency of ischaemic events was winter, and the lowest incidence was during weekends. Regarding the severity of ischaemic heart disease, the circadian rhythm variables of weekdays vs. weekends and seasons did not show a significant association. The length of hospital stay was associated with the onset of pain in the afternoon. The onset of pain at night was associated with the subendocardial location of the infarction. In conclusion, living in a Mediterranean country, the Spanish population showed a circadian pattern of AMI, where the onset of pain has an influence on AMI location and on the length of hospital stay and is the same in patients with different individual risk factors.

Nomogram Prediction for the Risk of Diabetic Foot in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

Aims: To develop and validate a nomogram prediction model for the risk of diabetic foot in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and evaluate its clinical application value. Methods: We retrospectively collected clinical data from 1,950 patients with T2DM from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University between January 2012 and June 2021. The patients were divided into training cohort and validation cohort according to the random number table method at a ratio of 7:3. The independent risk factors for diabetic foot among patients with T2DM were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Then, a nomogram prediction model was developed using the independent risk factors. The model performances were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plot, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that age, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), total cholesterol (TC), smoke, and drink were independent risk factors for diabetic foot among patients with T2DM (P < 0.05). The AUCs of training cohort and validation cohort were 0.806 (95% CI: 0.775∼0.837) and 0.857 (95% CI: 0.814∼0.899), respectively, suggesting good discrimination of the model. Calibration curves of training cohort and validation cohort showed a favorable consistency between the predicted probability and the actual probability. In addition, the P values of Hosmer-Lemeshow test for training cohort and validation cohort were 0.826 and 0.480, respectively, suggesting a high calibration of the model. When the threshold probability was set as 11.6% in the DCA curve, the clinical net benefits of training cohort and validation cohort were 58% and 65%, respectively, indicating good clinical usefulness of the model. Conclusion: We developed and validated a user-friendly nomogram prediction model for the risk of diabetic foot in patients with T2DM. Nomograms may help clinicians early screen and identify patients at high risk of diabetic foot.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Modeling for Astronauts: Making the Leap From Earth to Space.

NASA has recently completed several long-duration missions to the International Space Station and is solidifying plans to return to the Moon, with an eye toward Mars and beyond. As NASA pushes the boundaries of human space exploration, the hazards of spaceflight, including space radiation, levy an increasing burden on astronaut health and performance. The cardiovascular system may be especially vulnerable due to the combined impacts of space radiation exposure, lack of gravity, and other spaceflight hazards. On Earth, the risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) following moderate to high radiation doses is well-established from clinical, environmental, and occupational exposures (largely from gamma- and x-rays). Less is known about CVD risks associated with high-energy charged ions found in space and increasingly used in radiotherapy applications on Earth, making this a critical area of investigation for occupational radiation protection. Assessing CVD risk is complicated by its multifactorial nature, where an individual's risk is strongly influenced by factors such as family history, blood pressure, and lipid profiles. These known risk factors provide the basis for development of a variety of clinical risk prediction models (CPMs) that inform the likelihood of medical outcomes over a defined period. These tools improve clinical decision-making, personalize care, and support primary prevention of CVD. They may also be useful for individualizing risk estimates for CVD following radiation exposure both in the clinic and in space. In this review, we summarize unique aspects of radiation risk assessment for astronauts, and we evaluate the most widely used CVD CPMs for their use in NASA radiation risk assessment applications. We describe a comprehensive dual-use risk assessment framework that supports both clinical care and operational management of space radiation health risks using quantitative metrics. This approach is a first step in using personalized medicine for radiation risk assessment to support safe and productive spaceflight and long-term quality of life for NASA astronauts.

Individual and group level risk factors in preventive health and panic buying behaviors during COVID-19 pandemic in India.

The present research explored individual and group level risk factors in preventive health and panic buying behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic in India. Perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, COVID-19 anxiety, and personal identity were considered individual-level risk factors. Group based identities such as family, religious groups, and identification with one's nation were considered as group level risk factors. Standardized scales have been used to measure all the constructs under study. Data were collected electronically from 305 Indian respondents. Hierarchical regression analysis in SPSS Version 22 was used to test the hypotheses. Results showed that personal identity and identification with the nation predicted preventive health behavior. Panic buying behavior was predicted by the location of the respondents (containment versus non-containment zones), perceived severity, and one's personal identity. The interplay of individual and social factors is reflective of both individual and collective agencies in the adoption of preventive health behaviors, while only individual-level factors led to panic buying behavior. The findings of this study have implications for curbing, managing, and reinforcing desirable and non-desirable behavior during the present pandemic as well as in the future as well.

Isolated neonatal clavicular fracture is a risk factor for future shoulder dystocia.

OBJECTIVE: Shoulder dystocia (SD) is a risk factor for neonatal clavicular fracture (CF). Previous SD is a known risk factor for subsequent SD. It is unknown whether an isolated neonatal CF (one that is not associated with SD) increases the risk of future SD. We aimed to investigate this question. METHODS: A retrospective computerized database study conducted at Shaare Zedek Medical Center, a university-affiliated hospital, between 2005 and 2018. We included in the study all women that had a vaginal delivery without SD and had a subsequent vaginal delivery in our center between 2005 and 2018. Medical records of parturients who had a coded diagnosis of neonatal CF were retrieved. The first delivery with the neonatal diagnosis of an isolated CF was chosen as index delivery. Rates of SD at the subsequent delivery were assessed and compared between parturients with isolated neonatal CF (INCF) and parturients without neonatal CF or SD at the index delivery. To account for dependency between deliveries of the same individual parturient, we used generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. RESULTS: We identified 39,601 parturients that met the inclusion criteria. During the study period, 519 parturients with a diagnosis of INCF that had at least one subsequent delivery were identified (1.3%). Overall, 3.9% of parturients with isolated CF (20/519) had subsequent SD, as compared to 0.5% of parturients without CF or SD at the index delivery (190/39082; p < .01). Previous diagnosis of INCF was found to be independently associated with SD in a subsequent delivery after controlling for known risk factors for SD (aOR = 6.41, 95% CI = 3.92-10.61). Previous diagnosis of an INCF was also found to be independently associated with a subsequent event of SD in all subsequent deliveries of the same individual parturient (aOR = 3.42, 95% CI = 2.26-5.18). CONCLUSION: Women with previous INCF have an increased risk for SD in subsequent deliveries. Intervention efforts directed at this particular subgroup of women should be applied, with special attention to potentially modifiable risk factors to minimize the risk for future SD.