Predicting the Popularity of Information on Social Platforms without Underlying Network Structure.

The ability to predict the size of information cascades in online social networks is crucial for various applications, including decision-making and viral marketing. However, traditional methods either rely on complicated time-varying features that are challenging to extract from multilingual and cross-platform content, or on network structures and properties that are often difficult to obtain. To address these issues, we conducted empirical research using data from two well-known social networking platforms, WeChat and Weibo. Our findings suggest that the information-cascading process is best described as an activate-decay dynamic process. Building on these insights, we developed an activate-decay (AD)-based algorithm that can accurately predict the long-term popularity of online content based solely on its early repost amount. We tested our algorithm using data from WeChat and Weibo, demonstrating that we could fit the evolution trend of content propagation and predict the longer-term dynamics of message forwarding from earlier data. We also discovered a close correlation between the peak forwarding amount of information and the total amount of dissemination. Finding the peak of the amount of information dissemination can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of our model. Our method also outperformed existing baseline methods for predicting the popularity of information.

Age differences in the functional organization of the prefrontal cortex: analyses of competing hypotheses.

We employed a mixed design task for block and event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging with manipulations of levels of abstraction and duration in task-relevant cues and probes. Age-related differences between younger and older adults in task-related functional brain activity patterns of the prefrontal cortex (PFC) were reported. The results showed that (1) the low episodic condition evoked more activity in the more anterior PFC than the high episodic control condition for both age groups; (2) the low abstraction condition evoked more activity in the more anterior PFC than the high abstraction condition for both age groups; and (3) the signal change did not vary as a function of activity dynamics (transient and sustained responses) and maintenance duration (single-trial and multiple-trial). The findings showed that baseline conditions evoked more activity in the more anterior PFC for the older group than the younger group across most task contrasts and conditions, where these additional activities in the brain regions overlapped within the default mode network (DMN). We tentatively concluded that deficiency in the anterior DMN deactivation during externally driven tasks might be attributed to less efficiency in modulating local connectivity propagate to surrounding tissue, which may paradoxically increase brain activity.

Effect of Regret Aversion and Information Cascade on Investment Decisions in the Real Estate Sector: The Mediating Role of Risk Perception and the Moderating Effect of Financial Literacy.

The real estate sector plays a significant role in the economy of any country. However, many investors make irrational investments in the real estate market. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to assess the effects of regret aversion and information cascade on investment decisions while considering the moderating role of financial literacy and the mediating effect of risk perception in the real estate sector of developing countries. This research utilized a quantitative research technique, collecting data by distributing structured questionnaires to real estate investors, followed by convenience sampling. This study used both descriptive and inferential statistics to make the data more meaningful. SPSS 25.0 was utilized to interpret the data. Cronbach's alpha was used to test for internal consistency, while validity was checked through correlation. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was applied to confirm that the items on the questionnaire are perfectly loaded on their construct. Furthermore, process macro, model 5, was used to investigate the moderation mediation. This work addresses a gap in the literature by studying financial literacy as a moderator and risk perception as a mediating variable in regret aversion bias and information cascade bias's relationships with investment decisions in the real estate sector. The results confirmed that financial literacy weakens the negative effect of behavioral biases (regret aversion and information cascade) on investment decisions. In addition, risk perception mediates the relationships between these cognitive biases (regret aversion and information cascade) and decision making. The effects of other behavioral biases in real estate and stock market contexts should be examined in future research.

Copy if dissatisfied, innovate if not: contrasting egg-laying decision making in an insect.

The use of conspecific cues as social information in decision making is widespread among animals; but, because this social information is indirect, it is error-prone. During resource acquisition, conspecific cues also indicate the presence of competitors; therefore, decision makers are expected to utilize direct information from resources and modify their responses to social information accordingly. Here, we show that, in a non-social insect, unattractive egg-laying resources alter the behavioural response to conspecific cues from avoidance to preference, leading to resource sharing. Females of the adzuki bean beetle Callosobruchus chinensis avoid laying eggs onto beans that already have conspecific eggs. However, when we provided females with bean-sized clean glass beads with and without conspecific eggs, the females preferred to add their eggs onto the beads with eggs. The glass beads, once coated with water extracts of adzuki beans, enabled the females to behave as if they were provided with the beans: the females preferred bean-odoured glass beads to clean glass beads and they avoided the substrates with eggs. When females are provided with unattractive egg-laying substrates only, joining behaviour (i.e. copying) might be advantageous, as it takes advantage of information about positive attributes of the substrate that the focal animal might have missed. Our results suggest that given only unsatisfactory options, the benefits of copying outweigh the costs of resource competition. Our study highlights the importance of integrating multiple information sources in animal decision making.

Task difficulty manipulation reveals multiple demand activity but no frontal lobe hierarchy.

It has been proposed that task control is functionally implemented by a distributed frontoparietal system. It has been argued that one component of this system, the lateral frontal cortex, is functionally organized through a caudal to rostral gradient. Here, we tested 2 competing models, the Information Cascade and Rule Abstraction hypotheses, which suggest different principles underlying the rostrocaudal gradient. We presented participants with 4 vertical lines on a screen and asked them to indicate the position of the shortest line. We manipulated the difficulty of the task in 3 simple ways: By increasing the number of lines, by decreasing the difference between short and normal line length, and by changing the stimulus-response mapping. As expected, these manipulations evoked widespread frontoparietal activation, with activity much more anterior than predicted by Information Cascade and Rule Abstraction models. There were also striking individual differences in the rostrocaudal extent of activity. The results suggest an integrated frontoparietal system, which can be recruited as a whole even by very simple task demands.