A Novel Nomogram Based on Log Odds of Metastatic Lymph Nodes to Predict Overall Survival in Patients With Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma After Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Various lymph node staging strategies were reported to be significantly correlated with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma(pCCA) prognosis. This study aimed to evaluate their predictive abilities and construct an optimal model predicting overall survival (OS). METHODS: Patients with pCCA were collected as the training cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Four models were constructed, involving four LNs staging strategies. The optimal model for predicting OS was evaluated by calculation of the concordance index (C-index) and Akaike information criterion (AIC), and validated by using the area under curve (AUC) and calibration curves. The clinical benefits of nomogram were evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA). A Chinese cohort was collected to be an external validation cohort. RESULTS: There were 319 patients and 109 patients in the SEER database and Chinese cohort respectively. We developed an optimal model involving age, T stage, tumor size, LODDS, which showed better predictive accuracy than others. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.695, the time-dependent AUC exceeded 0.7 within 36 months which was significantly higher than that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage. The calibration curves for survival probability showed the nomogram prediction had good uniformity of the practical survival. The DCA curves exhibited our nomogram with higher clinical utility compared with the AJCC stage and single LOODS. CONCLUSIONS: LODDS is a strong independent prognostic factor, and the nomogram has a great ability to predict OS, which helps assist clinicians to conduct personalized clinical practice.

The assessment of the optimal number of examined lymph nodes and prognostic models based on lymph nodes for predicting survival outcome in patients with stage N3b gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND: The optimal number of examined lymph nodes (ELNs) and the prognostic value of different nodal staging systems remain unclear in the context of N3b gastric cancer. AIM: To evaluate the optimal number of ELNs and compare the predictive ability of the ELN number, LN ratio (LNR), and log odds of metastatic LNs (LODDS) for overall survival (OS) in patients with resected stage N3b gastric adenocarcinoma in an international database. METHODS: A total of 868 patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (training cohort) and 144 patients diagnosed between 2011 and 2016 at the Liaoning Cancer Hospital (validation cohort) were identified. Cutoff values were established with X-tile. The 5-year OS rates were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves. Multivariate analysis was conducted with a Cox regression model. The Harrell's concordance index and Akaike's information criterion were used to compare the predictive accuracy of different nodal staging systems. RESULTS: The ELN number, LNR, and LODDS were independent prognostic factors for both the training and validation cohorts in the multivariate analysis. Patient with ≤26 ELNs, LNR of more than 0.9, and LODDS of more than 1.0 were associated with decrease OS. The LNR and LODDS had similar discriminatory ability for OS and performed better than the ELN number in the Eastern and Western populations. CONCLUSION: The optimal number of ELN may be 27 or more because LNs retrieved ≤26 was an independent risk factor for the prognosis. The prognostic prediction efficacy of LNR and LODDS was similar and better than that of ELN. Thus, LNR and LODDS could both serve as valid tools to predict OS for stage N3b patients.

[Application value of different lymph node staging system in predicting prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma].

Objective: To examine the value of number of metastatic lymph nodes(NMLN), lymph node ratio(LNR) and log odds of metastatic lymph nodes(LODDS) in assessing the prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC). Methods: The clinical and pathological data of 440 ICC patients who underwent curative-intent resection in 10 of Chinese hepatobiliary surgery centers from January 2010 to December 2018 were collected, and the deadline of follow-up was April 30th, 2019. Among them, 205 were males and 235 were females, with age of (57.0±9.9) years (range:23-83 years).Eighty-five cases (19.3%) had intrahepatic bile duct stones, and 98 cases (22.3%) had chronic viral hepatitis.The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis. The univariate and multivariate analysis were implemented respectively using the Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model. Results: A total of 440 patients underwent curative-intent resection and lymphadenectomy.R0 resection were achieved in 424 cases (96.4%) and R1 resection were in 16 cases (3.6%). The results of postoperative pathological examination showed that high, moderate and poor differentiation was 4.2%(18/426), 60.6%(258/426) and 35.2%(150/426), respectively.Adenocarcinoma was seen in 90.2%(397/440) and non-adenocarcinoma was seen in 9.8%(43/440), respectively. T stage: 2 cases (0.5%) with Tis, 83 cases(18.9%) with T1a, 97 cases(22.0%) with T1b, 95 cases(21.6%) with T2, 122 cases (27.7%) with T3 and 41 cases(9.3%) with T4.The overall median survival time was 24.0 months, and the 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rate was 74.3%, 37.7% and 18.3%, respectively. Lymphatic metastasis occurred in 175 patients(39.8%), the median total number of TNLE(M(Q(R))) was 6(5), the median number of NMLN was 0(1), the median number of LNR was 0 (0.33) and the median number of LODDS was -0.70(-0.92). Rerults of univariate analysis showed that combined stones, pathological differentiation, vascular invasion, LODDS, margin and T staging affected the prognosis (all P<0.05). Rerults of multivariate analysis showed that pathological differentiation, LODDS, margin, and T staging were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of ICC patients (all P<0.05). Conclusion: LODDS could be used as an optimal prognostic lymph node staging index for ICC, and it is also an independent risk factor for survival after curative intent resection.

Retrieved lymph nodes from different anatomic groups in gastric cancer: a proposed optimal number, comparison with other nodal classification strategies and its impact on prognosis.

BACKGROUND: The optimal number of retrieved lymph nodes (LNs) in gastric cancer (GC) is still debatable and previous studies proposing new classification alternatives mostly focused on the number of retrieved LNs without proper consideration on the anatomic nodal groups' location. Here, we assessed the impact of retrieved LNs from different nodal location groups on the survival of GC patients. METHODS: Stage I-III gastric cancer patients who had radical gastrectomy were investigated. LN grouping was determined according to the 13th edition of the JCGC. The optimal cut-off values of retrieved LNs in different LN groups (Group 1 and 2) were calculated, based on which a proposed nodal classification (rN) simultaneously accounting the optimal number and location of retrieved LNs was proposed. The performance of rN was then compared to that of LN ratio, log-odds of metastatic LNs (LODDs) and the 8th edition of the Union for International Cancer Control/American Joint Committee on Cancer (UICC/AJCC) N classification. RESULTS: The optimal cut-off values for Group 1 and 2 were 13 and 9, respectively. The 5-year overall survival (OS) was higher for patients in retrieved Group 1 LNs > 13 (vs. Group 1 LNs ≤ 13, 63.2% vs. 57.9%, P = 0.005) and retrieved Group 2 LNs > 9 (vs. Group 2 LNs ≤ 9, 72.5% vs. 60.7%, P = 0.009). Patients staged as pN0-3b were sub classified using this Group 1 and 2 nodal analogy. The OS of pN0-N2 patients in retrieved Group 1 LNs > 13 or Group 2 LNs > 9 were superior to those in retrieved Group 1 LNs ≤ 13 and Group 2 LNs ≤ 9 (All P < 0.05); except for pN3 patients. The rN classification was formulated and demonstrated better 5-year OS prognostication performance as compared to the LNR, LODDs, and the 8th UICC/AJCC N staging system. CONCLUSIONS: The retrieval of > 13 and > 9 LNs for Group 1 and Group 2, respectively, could represent an alternative lymph node retrieval approach in radical gastrectomy for more precise survival prognostication and minimizing staging migration, especially if > 16 LNs is found to be difficult.

Lymph node staging systems in patients with gastric cancer treated with D2 resection plus adjuvant chemotherapy.

Background: The optimal nodal staging scheme for gastric cancer remains unsettled. We compared the prognostic performances of the metastatic lymph node, lymph node ratio, and log odds of metastatic lymph nodes based on nomograms among 801 patients with D2-resected gastric cancer treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: When assessed as a continuous covariate, each nodal staging variable was incorporated into a prognostic nomogram with other significant prognosticators to predict the 5-year overall survival. The discriminatory abilities of the nomograms were compared using the concordance index. Patients were divided into subgroups using each nomogram, and the prognostic homogeneity of the nomograms was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank tests. Results: The discriminatory abilities of the three nomograms were comparable (P > 0.05 for all pairwise comparisons). However, for patients within each lymph node ratio subgroup, overall survival was homogenous when stratified by subgroups of the other two staging schemes, while it differed significantly among the different lymph node ratio subgroups for patients within some of the other two staging subgroups. Conclusion: The lymph node ratio-based staging scheme performs the best for the prediction of survival in patients with locally advanced gastric cancer treated with D2 resection followed by adjuvant chemotherapy.

The prognostic value of different node staging systems in patients with ≤15 lymph nodes following surgery for gastric adenocarcinoma.

AIM: Lymph node (LN) status is an important prognostic indicator in patients with gastric cancer (GC). Although American Joint Committee on Cancer/International Union against Cancer (AJCC/UICC) is the most widely used staging system, there is a challenge in predicting survival of patients when the number of total harvested LNs is ≤15. Our aim was to investigate the prognostic performances of seventh edition AJCC/UICC, lymph-node ratio (LNR), and log odds of metastatic lymph nodes (LODDS) on the overall survival (OS) of GC patients with ≤15 examined LNs after gastric resection. MATERIAL AND METHOD: A total of 74 patients who underwent curative resection for gastric adenocarcinoma and had ≤15 LNs at the final histopathological examination were included in the study. The prognostic ability of three node staging models to predict OS was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: Of the 74 patients, 15 (20.3%) had no LN metastasis whereas 59 (79.7%) had nodal involvement. The median OS was 26 months. When assessed as a continuous variable, LNR was the strongest staging system to stratify GC patients on the basis of LN status. LODDS had superiority on other node staging models when the number of LNs retrieved was modeled as categorical variable. CONCLUSIONS: LNR (continuous) and LODDS (categorical) were the strongest indicators of OS in GC when the number of LN harvested was ≤15. Therefore, they may be considered as an alternative nodal staging systems for GC.

Comparison of prognostic nomograms based on different nodal staging systems in patients with resected gastric cancer.

Purpose: Previous studies addressing the optimal nodal staging system in patients with resected gastric cancer have shown inconsistent results, and the optimal system for development of prognostic nomograms remains unclear. In this study, we compared prognostic nomograms based on the metastatic lymph node (MLN) count, lymph node ratio (LNR), and log odds of metastatic lymph nodes (LODDS) to predict the 5-year overall survival in patients with resected gastric cancer. Methods: We analysed 15,320 patients with resected gastric cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1988 and 2010. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. When assessed as a continuous covariate with restricted cubic splines, each MLN, LNR, and LODDS variable was incorporated into a nomogram with other significant prognosticators to predict the 5-year overall survival. A two-centre Chinese dataset (1,595 cases) was used as external validation data. Results: The discriminatory abilities of the MLN-, LNR-, and LODDS-based nomograms were comparable (concordance indices: 0.744, 0.741, and 0.744, respectively, in the SEER set, P > 0.152 for all pairwise comparisons; 0.715, 0.712, and 0.713, respectively, in the Chinese set, P > 0.445 for all pairwise comparisons). The discriminatory abilities of the three nomograms were all superior to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM classification (concordance indices: 0.713, P < 0.001 for all in the SEER set; and 0.693, P < 0.001 for all in the Chinese set). The discriminatory abilities of the nomograms were comparable regardless of the number of nodes examined. Moreover, decision curve analyses indicated similar net benefits of using the nomograms. Conclusion: MLN-, LNR-, and LODDS should be considered equally in the development of multivariate prognostic models and nomograms to refine the prediction of survival among patients with resected gastric cancer.