Time-course and dose-effect of omalizumab in treating chronic idiopathic urticaria/chronic spontaneous urticaria.

PURPOSE: Several studies have shown that subcutaneous injections of omalizumab can treat chronic idiopathic/spontaneous urticaria (CIU/CSU) patients by only assessing the efficacy on specific endpoints. This study aimed to quantitatively analyze different doses of omalizumab in CIU/CSU and compare it with ligelizumab. METHODS: Literature searches were performed in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases. A model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) was utilized to develop a model incorporating time since the initiation of treatment and dose for omalizumab, with the change from baseline in Urticaria Activity Score (CFB-UAS7) as the primary efficacy endpoint. The time-course and dose-effect relationship throughout the omalizumab treatment period was analyzed, and the findings were compared with those of the investigational ligelizumab. RESULTS: The model equation for the CFB-UAS7 was established as E = -Emax × time/(ET50 + time) × (b0 + b1 × dose). The estimated values of the model parameters E max , ET 50 , b 0 , and b 1 were -1.16, 1.26 weeks, -9.90, and -0.0361 mg-1, respectively. At week 12 after the first dose, the model-predicted CFB-UAS7 for 150 mg and 300 mg of omalizumab were -16.0 (95% CI, -17.2 to -14.8) and -21.7 (95% CI, -22.9 to -20.5), respectively. In the PEARL-1 trial, the CFB-UAS7 for 72 mg and 120 mg of ligelizumab were -19.4 (95% CI, -20.7 to -18.1) and -19.3 (95% CI, -20.6 to -18.0), respectively. In the PEARL-2 trial, these values were -19.2 (95% CI, -20.5 to -17.9) and -20.3 (95% CI, -21.6 to -19.0), respectively. CONCLUSION: Omalizumab showed a significant dose-dependent effect in the treatment of CSU. Both 72 mg and 120 mg ligelizumab might have the potential to outperform 150 mg (but not 300 mg) omalizumab.

Quantitative evaluation of the time-course and efficacy of targeted agents for ulcerative colitis.

Background: Targeted agents are widely utilized in the treatment of ulcerative colitis (UC). Hence, a comprehensive understanding of comparative drug efficacy in UC is of great importance for drug development and clinical practice. Our objective was the quantitative evaluation of the comparative efficacy of targeted agents for UC. Methods: Three mathematical models were developed based on data from randomized controlled trials in patients with moderate-to-severe UC to describe the time-course and dose-response of efficacy defined as clinical remission, clinical response, and endoscopic improvement, as well as the placebo effect. The covariate effects were further evaluated. Model simulation was performed in a hypothetical population to compare the efficacies across different drugs. Results: The analysis dataset was composed of data from 35 trials of 12 drugs in UC. Time-response relationships were evaluated that indicated a gradual onset of drug efficacy in adalimumab, ozanimod, and Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors. The dose-response relationships were estimated for each drug respectively. Patient age, disease duration, baseline weight, prior tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor exposure, and current treatment with corticosteroid showed an impact on efficacy, suggesting that younger patients with shorter UC duration without prior anti-TNF treatment and current corticosteroids therapy tend to display greater treatment effects. Conclusion: This study developed three longitudinal models for UC to quantitatively describe the efficacy of targeted agents, as well as the influencing factors of efficacy. Infliximab and upadacitinib were determined to be the most effective biological and small targeted molecules, respectively. These findings may provide valuable implications for guiding future decision-making in clinical practice and drug development for UC.

Factors affecting the effectiveness and safety of polymyxin B in the treatment of Gram-negative bacterial infections: A meta-analysis of 96 articles.

PURPOSE: Polymyxin B, with its unique structure and mechanism of action, has emerged as a key therapeutic agent against Gram-negative bacteria. The study aims to explore potential factors to influence its effectiveness and safety. METHODS: A model-based meta-analysis of 96 articles was conducted, focusing on factors like dosage, bacterial species, and combined antibiotic therapy. The analysis evaluated mortality rates and incidence rate of renal dysfunction, also employing parametric survival models to assess 30-d survival rates. RESULTS: In the study involving 96 articles and 9716 patients, polymyxin B's daily dose showed minimal effect on overall mortality, with high-dose group mortality at 33.57% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 29.15-38.00) compared to the low-dose group at 35.44% (95% CI: 28.99-41.88), P = 0.64. Mortality significantly varied by bacterial species, with Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections at 58.50% (95% CI: 55.42-63.58). Monotherapy exhibited the highest mortality at 40.25% (95% CI: 34.75-45.76), P < 0.01. Renal dysfunction was more common in high-dose patients at 29.75% (95% CI: 28.52-30.98), with no significant difference across antibiotic regimens, P = 0.54. The 30-d overall survival rate for monotherapy therapy was 63.6% (95% CI: 59.3-67.5) and 70.2% (95% CI: 64.4-76.2) for association therapy with ß-lactam drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The dosage of polymyxin B does not significantly change death rates, but its effectiveness varies based on the bacterial infection. Certain bacteria like P. aeruginosa are associated with higher mortality. Combining polymyxin B with other antibiotics, especially ß-lactam drugs, improves survival rates. Side effects depend on the dose, with lower doses being safer. These findings emphasize the importance of customizing treatment to balance effectiveness and safety.

Quantitative evaluation of the efficacy and safety profiles of two types of targeted inhibitors combined with endocrine therapy in ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to quantitatively compare the efficacy and safety of CDK4/6 inhibitors and PI3K/AKT/mTOR inhibitors for ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer. METHODS: A parametric survival function was used to analyze the time course of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). The objective response rate (ORR) and the incidence of any grade and grade 3-4 adverse events were summarized using the random-effects model of a single-arm meta-analysis. RESULTS: This study included 44 arms from 48 publications, with a total sample size of 7881 patients. Our study revealed that CDK4/6 inhibitors had a median OS of 40.7 months, a median PFS of 14.8 months, and an ORR of 40%, whereas PI3K/AKT/mTOR inhibitors had a median OS of 29.8 months, a median PFS of 8.3 months, and an ORR of 20%. Additionally, this study also found that the proportion of patients with visceral metastases and specific endocrine therapy used in combination significantly impact OS and PFS. In terms of adverse events, CDK4/6 inhibitors exhibited a relatively high incidence of hematological adverse events. CONCLUSION: Our study provides solid quantitative evidence for the first-line recommendation of CDK4/6 inhibitors combined with endocrine therapy for ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer in clinical guidelines.

Modeling an evaluation of the efficacy of the novel neuroanalgesic drug mirogabalin for diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain and postherpetic neuralgia therapy.

Diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain (DPNP) and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) are challenging and often intractable complex medical conditions, with a substantial impact on the quality of life. Mirogabalin, a novel voltage-gated Ca2+ channel α2δ ligand, was approved for the indication of DPNP and PHN. However, the time course of effects has not yet been clarified.We aimed to establish pharmacodynamic and placebo effect models of mirogabalin and pregabalin in DPNP and PHN, and to quantitatively compare the efficacy characteristics (maximum efficacy, onset time, and other pharmacodynamic parameters) and safety of mirogabalin and pregabalin. Public databases were comprehensively searched for randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials. A model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) was developed to describe the time course of drug efficacy and placebo effects. Adverse events were compared using a fixed-effects meta-analysis. Sixteen studies including 5,147 participants were eligible for this study. The placebo effect was relatively high and gradually increased with time, and it required at least eight weeks to reach a plateau. The pharmacodynamic model revealed that the maximum pure efficacy for mirogabalin and pregabalin was approximately -7.85 % and -8.86 %, respectively; the efficacy of mirogabalin to relieve DPNP and PHN was not superior to that of pregabalin, and both drugs had similar safety. While the rate constant of the onset rate of pregabalin was approximately thrice as high as that of mirogabalin. In addition, the baseline level of pain was an important factor affecting pregabalin efficacy. These findings are helpful in evaluating the clinical extension value of mirogabalin. They suggest that the high placebo effect and the baseline level of pain should be considered when grouping patients in future research and development of voltage-gated Ca2+ channel neuroanalgesic.

Accelerating drug development for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: construction and application of a disease course model using historical placebo group data.

BACKGROUND: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is an irreversible degenerative disease. Placebo-controlled randomized trials are currently the main trial design to assess the clinical efficacy of drugs for ALS treatment. The aim of this study was to establish models to quantitatively describe the course of ALS, explore influencing factors, and provide the necessary information for ALS drug development. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive search of PubMed and the Cochrane Library Central Register for placebo-controlled trials that evaluated treatments for ALS. From these trials, we extracted the clinical and demographic characteristics of participants in the placebo group, as well as outcome data, which encompassed overall survival (OS) and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R) scores, at various time points. RESULTS: In total, 47 studies involving 6118 participants were included. Disease duration and the proportion of patients receiving riluzole were identified as significant factors influencing OS in the placebo group. Specifically, the median OS was 35.5 months for a disease duration of 9 months, whereas it was 20.0 months for a disease duration of 36 months. Furthermore, for every 10% increase in the proportion of patients treated with riluzole (100 mg daily), there was an association with a median OS extension of approximately 0.4 months. The estimated time for the ALSFRS-R score in the placebo group to decrease to 50% of its maximum effect from baseline level was approximately 17.5 months, and the time to reach a plateau was about 40 months. CONCLUSIONS: The established disease course model of the historical placebo group is valuable in the decision-making process for the clinical development of ALS drugs. It serves not only as an external control to evaluate the efficacy of the tested drug in single-arm trials but also as prior information that aids in accurately estimating the posterior distribution of the disease course in the placebo group during small-sample clinical trials.

Improved characterization of aminoglycoside penetration into human lung epithelial lining fluid via population pharmacokinetics.

Aminoglycosides are important treatment options for serious lung infections, but modeling analyses to quantify their human lung epithelial lining fluid (ELF) penetration are lacking. We estimated the extent and rate of penetration for five aminoglycosides via population pharmacokinetics from eight published studies. The area under the curve in ELF vs plasma ranged from 50% to 100% and equilibration half-lives from 0.61 to 5.80 h, indicating extensive system hysteresis. Aminoglycoside ELF peak concentrations were blunted, but overall exposures were moderately high.

Dose-response relationships of intravenous and perineural dexamethasone as adjuvants to peripheral nerve blocks: a systematic review and model-based network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Superiority of perineural over intravenous dexamethasone at extending nerve block analgesia has been suggested but without considering the dose-response relationships for each route of administration. METHODS: Randomised control studies that evaluated intravenous or perineural dexamethasone as an adjuvant to unilateral peripheral nerve blocks in adults were searched up to October 2023 in MEDLINE, Central, Google Scholar, and reference lists of previous systematic reviews. The Cochrane Risk-of-Bias tool was used. A maximum effect (Emax) model-based network meta-analysis was undertaken to evaluate the dose-response relationships of dexamethasone. RESULTS: A total of 118 studies were selected (9284 patients; 35 with intravenous dexamethasone; 106 with perineural dexamethasone; dose range 1-16 mg). Studies with unclear or high risk of bias overestimated the effect of dexamethasone. Bias-corrected estimates indicated a maximum fold increase in analgesia duration of 1.7 (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.4-1.9) with dexamethasone, with no difference between perineural and intravenous routes. Trial simulations indicated that 4 mg of perineural dexamethasone increased the mean duration of analgesia for long-acting local anaesthetics from 11.1 h (95% CrI 9.4-13.1) to 16.5 h (95% CrI 14.0-19.3) and halved the rate of postoperative nausea and vomiting. A similar magnitude of effect was observed with 8 mg of intravenous dexamethasone. CONCLUSIONS: Used as an adjuvant for peripheral nerve block, intravenous dexamethasone can be as effective as perineural dexamethasone in prolonging analgesic duration, but is less potent, hence requiring higher doses. The evidence is limited because of the observational nature of the dose-response relationships and the quality of the included studies. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW PROTOCOL: PROSPERO CRD42020141689.

Model-Based Meta-Analysis Supporting the Combination of Acetaminophen and Topical Diclofenac in Acute Pain: A Therapy for Mild-to-Moderate Osteoarthritis Pain?

INTRODUCTION: Acetaminophen and topical diclofenac (AtopD) have complementary mechanisms of action and are therefore candidates for combination use in osteoarthritis (OA) pain. However, an evidence gap exists on their combination use in OA pain. This study aimed to assess the effects of this combination and compare its performance relative to monotherapies on pain score reduction and opioid-sparing effect by leveraging evidence from acute pain setting using a model-based meta-analysis (MBMA). METHODS: A literature search was conducted using the MEDLINE database to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) studying the combination for acute pain. Subsequently, an MBMA of RCTs was implemented in conjunction with extrapolation principles to infer efficacy in the population of interest. Pain score reduction and opioid-sparing effect (OSE) were selected as the measures of efficacy. RESULTS: A total of 11 RCTs encompassing 1396 patients were included. Exploratory evaluation revealed AtopD combination to show greater pain score reduction versus acetaminophen monotherapy. However, pain score reduction was more susceptible to confounding by opioid patient-controlled analgesia (PCA) than OSE. Therefore, a parsimonious MBMA evaluating OSE was developed from 5 of the 11 RCTs (n = 353 patients). The analysis revealed a statistically significant interaction coefficient, suggesting a reduction of 32% in opioid use with the combination versus acetaminophen monotherapy. Differences in the effect size of the combination were less conclusive versus diclofenac monotherapy. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate greater pain reduction and opioid-sparing efficacy for the AtopD combination versus acetaminophen monotherapy. Given the similar pain pathways and mechanisms of action of the two drugs in acute and mild-to-moderate OA pain, comparable beneficial effects from the combination therapy may be anticipated following extrapolation to chronic OA pain. Prospective RCTs and real-world studies in OA pain are needed to confirm the differences in the efficacy of the combination treatment observed in our study.

Model-Based Assessment of the Liver Safety Profile of Acetaminophen to Support its Combination Use with Topical Diclofenac in Mild-to-Moderate Osteoarthritis Pain.

INTRODUCTION: The use of combination therapy of oral acetaminophen and topical diclofenac, having complementary mechanisms of action, is an attractive strategy to enhance the analgesic response in osteoarthritis (OA) pain. While topical diclofenac is considered as well tolerated due to its low systemic exposure, concerns of liver toxicity with acetaminophen at standard analgesic doses remain. Thus, this study aimed to assess the liver safety profile of acetaminophen, particularly in OA management, using a model-based meta-analysis (MBMA). METHODS: A literature review was conducted using the MEDLINE database to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) reporting liver toxicity on acetaminophen use. An MBMA was implemented to assess the deviation from the upper limit of normal (ULN) of alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase, namely > 0-1 × ULN, > 1.5-2 × ULN, and > 3 × ULN representing mild, moderate, and severe risk of liver abnormality, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 15 RCTs were included in the MBMA, encompassing over 4800 subjects and exposure to acetaminophen ranging from 2 to 26 weeks. Of the 15 included studies, eight involved patients with OA pain, four involved healthy subjects and three were in patients with conditions such as asthma, glaucoma, chronic pain, and cardiovascular disease. Acetaminophen 1500-4000 mg/day was found to exhibit 23% (95% confidence interval (CI): 17.74-29.20), 1.35% (95% CI: 0.17-2.51) and 0.01% (95% CI: 0.00-0.32) increased risk for mild, moderate, and severe liver injury, respectively, versus placebo. Moreover, at therapeutic doses, no correlation was identified between acetaminophen intake and liver abnormality risk. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our analysis shows that short-term (~ 8-16 weeks) acetaminophen use at therapeutically recommended doses is associated with a low risk of clinically relevant changes in liver enzymes. Given the good tolerability of topical diclofenac, the findings support the safety of the combination of acetaminophen and topical diclofenac, at least over the short term, as treatment for mild-to-moderate OA pain.

Optimization of secukinumab dose regimens in patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis via exposure-response modeling.

BACKGROUND: Further dose optimization is required for patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis who do not benefit from the approved secukinumab dose regimen. This study aimed to develop an exposure-response model for secukinumab to recommend dose regimens for patients of different body weights. METHODS: We searched the PubMed and Cochrane Library databases for randomized controlled trials using PASI 75 and PASI 90 response rates as primary outcomes. A model-based meta-analysis was developed to quantitatively analyze the distribution of six secukinumab dose regimens in patients weighing 50-120 kg. RESULTS: Sixteen trials involving 6,197 subjects were included in the analysis. The established model accurately described the time-course characteristics of PASI 75 and PASI 90 response rates over 52 weeks. Simulations indicated that maintenance doses could be reduced to 150 mg every 4 weeks and to 150 mg every 3 weeks for patients weighing 50 and 60 kg, respectively. In contrast, maintenance doses of 300 mg every 3 weeks should be selected for patients weighing 120 kg. Patients weighing 70-110 kg remained on approved maintenance doses of 300 mg every 4 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Based on patient body weights, the exposure-response model recommends efficacious and economical dose regimens for patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.

Quantitative risk-benefit profiles of oral contraceptives, insulin sensitizers and antiandrogens for women with polycystic ovary syndrome: A model-based meta-analysis.

Oral contraceptives (OCs), insulin sensitizers, and antiandrogens (AAs), alone or in combination, are commonly used for treating non-fertility indications in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). However, unclear risk-benefit profiles jeopardize their appropriate clinical applications. This study aimed to quantitatively evaluate the effects of the aforementioned medications and to compare their risk-benefit profiles. Randomized controlled trials published until 14th March 2022 were searched in PubMed and Embase. A model-based meta-analysis was developed to examine the time-effect profiles of each medication. The maximal percentage change of the effect (Emax) and time to achieve half of Emax (T50) were estimated. Primary outcomes included menstruation, hirsutism score, free androgen index (FAI), body mass index (BMI), insulin sensitivity, and lipid profiles. Overall, 200 studies (9,685 patients and 385 arms) were identified for modeling. OCs performed exceptionally well in improving menstruation (Emax: 149%; T50: 7.44 weeks), hirsutism score (Emax: 66.2%; T50: 26.2 weeks), and FAI (Emax: 75.7%; T50: 0.51 weeks). However, OCs elevated the triglyceride (TG) level (Emax: 12.6%; T50:1.19 weeks). After 12-week OC treatment, the TG level of approximately 30% of patients, whose baselines were normal, exceeded the reference limit. This suggested that OC-induced dyslipidemia should be routinely monitored. The maximal BMI-lowering effect of metformin was similar to that of placebo (Emax: 3.80%); however, metformin had a shorter T50 (6.67 weeks versus 12.9 weeks). Further, active lifestyle intervention plus placebo significantly decreased BMI (Emax: 8.78%). Adding metformin to active lifestyle intervention accelerated the BMI-lowering effect within 24 weeks, whereas with the extension of this addition beyond 24 weeks, BMI did not reduce further, which indicated that benefits were limited from this prolonged addition. AAs were less potent in reducing hirsutism score (Emax: 40.2% versus 66.2%) and FAI (Emax: 34.5% versus 75.7%) compared to OCs. OC plus metformin combined OC-derived androgen-suppressing effects and metformin-derived insulin-sensitizing effects, and partially relieved the OC-induced TG increase (Emax: 9.76%). Baseline dependency was found in most clinical responses, implying that pharmacotherapies tailored based on baselines achieved more clinical improvements. This study presents new quantitative evidence on pharmacotherapies for PCOS. Currently, long-term risk-benefit profiles and emerging therapies are inadequately reported and require more further research.

LABA/LAMA versus LABA/ICS fixed-dose combinations in the prevention of COPD exacerbations: a modeling analysis of literature aggregate data.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to quantitatively compare the efficacy and safety of long-acting ß2-agonist (LABA)/long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) and LABA/inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) in preventing moderate or severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. METHODS: A literature search was performed using public databases. The time course characteristics of the probability of a moderate or severe exacerbation in stable COPD patients treated with LABA/LAMA and LABA/ICS FDCs were described by the parametric survival function. A random-effects model in a single-arm meta-analysis was used to analyze the incidence of serious adverse events (SAEs) and pneumonia. RESULTS: Twenty studies including 23,955 participants were included. The proportion of participants with a history of COPD exacerbation (%) in the previous year and the postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) (%predicted) were important factors affecting drug efficacy. After adjusting the above factors to median levels of 100% and 45.5%, respectively, the moderate or severe exacerbation rates at 52 weeks for olodaterol/tiotropium, formoterol/budesonide, indacaterol/glycopyrronium, formoterol/glycopyrronium, vilanterol/fluticasone, salmeterol/fluticasone, and vilanterol/umeclidinium were 38.3%, 41.0%, 42.6%, 47.0%, 47.5%, 47.9%, and 53.0%, respectively. In terms of safety, significant differences were observed among drugs containing different LABA/LAMA FDCs. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that not all LABA/LAMA FDCs were superior to LABA/ICS FDCs in safety and in preventing moderate or severe exacerbations in patients with stable COPD, providing important quantitative information for COPD-related guidelines.

Comparation of time-course, dose-effect, influencing factors and adverse events of biologics in the treatment of adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis.

Introduction: Biologics is used for treating moderate to severe plaque psoriasis (MSPP), which represent one of the foremost therapeutic advancements in disease of dermatology. Up to now, the relative efficacy and safety across approved andinvestigational biologics for MSPP is still unclear. Methods: This study aimed to comparative effectiveness of various biological treatments for MSPP measured by PASI75, PASI90 and PASI100 (The ratio of patients whose Psoriasis Area and Severity Index score (PASI) decreased by ≥ 75%, 90% and 100% compared with baseline, respectively). In addition, random models were used together with a Bayesian method to compare direct and indirect Adverse Events (AEs) of biologics with placebo, to make probabilistic statements and predictions on their AEs. The analytic data set was made up of summarized data from 54 trials, including 27,808 patients, with treatment of 17 biologics. Three mathematic models with nonparametric placebo evaluations were established to characterize the longitudinal direction profile for the three efficacy measures as above mentioned. Results: Our results showed significant differences among treatments. Bimekizumab, sonelokimab, and ixekizumab were found to be the most effective treatments among the biologics. The effects of covariate were further evaluated, patients' age, body weight, duration of disease and percentage of patients previously treated with a biological therapy showed impact on the efficacy. In addition, we found that ixekizumab and risankizumab displayed relatively stable as for efficacy and safety. Discussion: Our findings provide valuable insights into the comparative effectiveness and safety of biologics for MSPP treatment. These results may aid in clinical decision-making and ultimately improve patient outcomes.

Difference in Efficacy and Safety of Anti-CD19 Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-Cell Therapy Containing 4-1BB and CD28 Co-Stimulatory Domains for B-Cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia.

This study quantified the differences in the efficacy and safety of different stimulation domains of anti-CD19 chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T therapy for B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL). Clinical trials related to anti-CD19 CAR T-cell therapy for B-ALL were searched in public databases from database inception to 13 November 2021. The differences in overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of B-ALL patients treated with anti-CAR T-cell therapy containing 4-1BB and CD28 co-stimulatory domains were compared by establishing a parametric survival function. The overall remission rate (ORR), the proportion of people with minimal residual disease (MRD)-negative complete remission (CR), the incidence of cytokine release syndrome (CRS), and the neurotoxicity across different co-stimulatory domains was assessed using a random-effects model. The correlation between the ORR, MRD-negative CR, PFS, and OS was tested. The results showed that the median OS of anti-CAR T-cell treatment containing 4-1BB and CD28 co-stimulatory domains was 15.0 months (95% CI: 11.0-20.0) and 8.5 months (95% CI: 5.0-14.0), and the median PFS was 7.0 months (95% CI: 4.0-11.5) and 3.0 months (95% CI: 1.5-7.0), respectively. Anti-CD19 CAR T-cells in the 4-1BB co-stimulatory domain showed superior benefits in patients who achieved ORR. The incidence of neurotoxicity was significantly higher in the CD28 co-stimulatory domain of anti-CD19 CAR T-cells than in the 4-1BB co-stimulatory domain. In addition, the ORR and MRD-negative CR were strongly correlated with OS and PFS, and PFS and OS were strongly correlated. The 4-1BB co-stimulatory domain suggested a better benefit-risk ratio than the CD28 co-stimulatory domain in B-ALL.

Quantitative comparison of the efficacy of clinical drug treatments for primary progressive multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: This study proposes a comprehensive quantitative evaluation of the efficacy of drugs and placebo in clinical trials for primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS). METHODS: A literature search was conducted using the PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library databases and the clinical studies reporting drug efficacy in the treatment of PPMS were included in the analyses. The cumulative proportion of patients without confirmed disability progression (wCDP%) was used as the main efficacy endpoint. The model-based meta-analysis method was used to describe the time course of each drug (as well as placebo) in order to rank the drug efficacy for the treatment of PPMS. RESULTS: Fifteen studies involving 3779 patients were included, of which, nine were placebo-controlled and six were single-arm trials. Twelve drugs were included in the study. The results showed that, except for biotin, interferon ß-1a, and interferon ß-1b, whose efficacy was comparable to the placebo, the efficacy of the other 9 drugs were significantly better than placebo. Among these, ocrelizumab showed outstanding performance, with wCDP% of 72.6 at 96 weeks, while the proportions of rest of the drugs ranged between approximately 55-70%. CONCLUSION: The results of this study provide the necessary quantitative information for both the rational clinical use of drugs and future clinical trials in primary progressive multiple sclerosis.

Joint longitudinal model-based meta-analysis of FEV1 and exacerbation rate in randomized COPD trials.

Model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) is an approach that integrates relevant summary level data from heterogeneously designed randomized controlled trials (RCTs). This study not only evaluated the predictability of a published MBMA for forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and its link to annual exacerbation rate in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) but also included data from new RCTs. A comparative effectiveness analysis across all drugs was also performed. Aggregated level data were collected from RCTs published between July 2013 and November 2020 (n = 132 references comprising 156 studies) and combined with data used in the legacy MBMA (published RCTs up to July 2013 - n = 142). The augmented data (n = 298) were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the published MBMA using goodness-of-fit plots for assessment. Furthermore, the model was extended including drugs that were not available before July 2013, estimating a new set of parameters. The legacy MBMA model predicted the post-2013 FEV1 data well, and new estimated parameters were similar to those of drugs in the same class. However, the exacerbation model overpredicted the post-2013 mean annual exacerbation rate data. Inclusion of year when the study started on the pre-treatment placebo rate improved the model predictive performance perhaps explaining potential improvements in the disease management over time. The addition of new data to the legacy COPD MBMA enabled a more robust model with increased predictability performance for both endpoints FEV1 and mean annual exacerbation rate.

Quantitative evaluation of therapy options for relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: A model-based meta-analysis.

New therapies for relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (r/rDLBCL) have emerged in recent years, but there have been no comprehensive quantitative comparisons of the efficacy of these therapies. In this study, the efficacy characteristics of 11 types of treatment strategy and 63 treatment regimens were compared by model based meta-analysis. We found that compared with monotherapy, association therapy had significant benefits in terms of overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR). However, whereas treatment regimens involving chemotherapy contributed to significant improvements in ORR and PFS, OS was not improved. In terms of treatment strategy, we identified chemotherapy in association with immunotherapy sequential autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT), the association of two different types of immunotherapies, chemotherapy sequential ASCT, chemotherapy in association with immunotherapy, and chemotherapy in association with two types of immunotherapies as showing better efficacy. With respect to specific treatment regimens, we found that the following had better efficacy: rituximab in association with inotuzumab ozogamicin; rituximab in association with carmustine, etoposide, cytarabine, and melphalan sequential ASCT (R-BEAM+ASCT); lenalidomide in association with rituximab, etoposide, cisplatin, cytarabine, and methylprednisolone; iodine-131 tositumomab in association with BEAM sequential ASCT; and chemotherapy sequential chimeric antigen receptor T-cell immunotherapy, with median OS of 48.2, 34.2, 27.8, 25.8, and 25 months, respectively. Moreover, with respect to association therapy, there was a strong correlation between the 6-month PFS and 2-year OS. The findings of this study provide the necessary quantitative information for clinical practice and clinical trial design for the treatment of r/rDLBCL.

Optimization of the MACE endpoint composition to increase power in studies of lipid-lowering therapies-a model-based meta-analysis.

Aims: To develop a model-informed methodology for the optimization of the Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) composite endpoint, based on a model-based meta-analysis across anti-hypercholesterolemia trials of statin and anti-PCSK9 drugs. Methods and results: Mixed-effects meta-regression modeling of stand-alone MACE outcomes was performed, with therapy type, population demographics, baseline and change over time in lipid biomarkers as predictors. Randomized clinical trials up to June 28, 2022, of either statins or anti-PCSK9 therapies were identified through a systematic review process in PubMed and ClinicalTrials.gov databases. In total, 54 studies (270,471 patients) were collected, reporting 15 different single cardiovascular events. Treatment-mediated decrease in low density lipoprotein cholesterol, baseline levels of remnant and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol as well as non-lipid population characteristics and type of therapy were identified as significant covariates for 10 of the 15 outcomes. The required sample size per composite 3- and 4-point MACE endpoint was calculated based on the estimated treatment effects in a population and frequencies of the incorporated events in the control group, trial duration, and uncertainty in model parameters. Conclusion: A quantitative tool was developed and used to benchmark different compositions of 3- and 4-point MACE for statins and anti-PCSK9 therapies, based on the minimum population size required to achieve statistical significance in relative risk reduction, following meta-regression modeling of the single MACE components. The approach we developed may be applied towards the optimization of the design of future trials in dyslipidemia disorders as well as in other therapeutic areas.

Accelerating model-informed decisions for COVID-19 vaccine candidates using a model-based meta-analysis approach.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the need for innovative quantitative decision tools to support rapid development of safe and efficacious vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. To meet that need, we developed and applied a model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) approach integrating non-clinical and clinical immunogenicity and protection data. METHODS: A systematic literature review identified studies of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 in rhesus macaques (RM) and humans. Summary-level data of 13 RM and 8 clinical trials were used in the analysis. A RM MBMA model was developed to quantify the relationship between serum neutralizing (SN) titres after vaccination and peak viral load (VL) post-challenge in RM. The translation of the RM MBMA model to a clinical protection model was then carried out to predict clinical efficacies based on RM data alone. Subsequently, clinical SN and efficacy data were integrated to develop three predictive models of efficacy - a calibrated RM MBMA, a joint (RM-Clinical) MBMA, and the clinical MBMA model. The three models were leveraged to predict efficacies of vaccine candidates not included in the model and efficacies against newer strains of SARS-CoV-2. FINDINGS: Clinical efficacies predicted based on RM data alone were in reasonable agreement with the reported data. The SN titre predicted to provide 50% efficacy was estimated to be about 21% of the mean human convalescent titre level, and that value was consistent across the three models. Clinical efficacies predicted from the MBMA models agreed with reported efficacies for two vaccine candidates (BBV152 and CoronaVac) not included in the modelling and for efficacies against delta variant. INTERPRETATION: The three MBMA models are predictive of protection against SARS-CoV-2 and provide a translational framework to enable early Go/No-Go and study design decisions using non-clinical and/or limited clinical immunogenicity data in the development of novel SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. FUNDING: This study was funded by Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.