[Atmospheric Ozone Concentration Prediction in Nanjing Based on LightGBM].

Based on the air quality data and conventional meteorological data of the Nanjing Region from January 2015 to December 2016, to analyze the characteristics of O3 concentration changes in the Nanjing Region, a light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) model was established to predict O3 concentration. The model was compared with three machine learning methods that are commonly used in air quality prediction, including support vector machine, recurrent neural network, and random forest methods, to verify its effectiveness and feasibility. Finally, the performance of the prediction model was analyzed under different meteorological conditions. The results showed that the variation in O3 concentration in Nanjing had significant seasonal differences and was affected by a combination of its pre-concentration, meteorological factors, and other air pollutant concentrations. The LightGBM model predicted the ground-level O3 concentration in the Nanjing area more precisely to a large extent (R2=0.92), and the model outperformed other models in prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. In particular, the model showed a significantly higher prediction accuracy and stability than that of other models under a high-temperature condition that was more likely prone to ozone pollution. The LightGBM model was characterized by its high prediction accuracy, good stability, satisfactory generalization ability, and short operation time, which broaden its application prospect in O3 concentration prediction.

Assessing uncertainty and heterogeneity in machine learning-based spatiotemporal ozone prediction in Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region in China.

Accurate prediction of spatiotemporal ozone concentration is of great significance to effectively establish advanced early warning systems and regulate air pollution control. However, the comprehensive assessment of uncertainty and heterogeneity in spatiotemporal ozone prediction remains unknown. Here, we systematically analyze the hourly and daily spatiotemporal predictive performances using convolutional long short term memory (ConvLSTM) and deep convolutional generative adversarial network (DCGAN) models over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China from 2013 to 2018. In extensive scenarios, our results show that the machine learning-based (ML-based) models achieve better spatiotemporal ozone concentration prediction performance with multiple meteorological conditions. A further comparison to the air pollution model-Nested Air Quality Prediction Modelling System (NAQPMS) and monitoring observations, the ConvLSTM model demonstrates the practical feasibility of identifying high ozone concentration distribution and capturing spatiotemporal ozone variation patterns at a high spatial resolution (here 15 km × 15 km).