Extension of a conditional performance score for sample size recalculation rules to the setting of binary endpoints.

BACKGROUND: Sample size calculation is a central aspect in planning of clinical trials. The sample size is calculated based on parameter assumptions, like the treatment effect and the endpoint's variance. A fundamental problem of this approach is that the true distribution parameters are not known before the trial. Hence, sample size calculation always contains a certain degree of uncertainty, leading to the risk of underpowering or oversizing a trial. One way to cope with this uncertainty are adaptive designs. Adaptive designs allow to adjust the sample size during an interim analysis. There is a large number of such recalculation rules to choose from. To guide the choice of a suitable adaptive design with sample size recalculation, previous literature suggests a conditional performance score for studies with a normally distributed endpoint. However, binary endpoints are also frequently applied in clinical trials and the application of the conditional performance score to binary endpoints is not yet investigated. METHODS: We extend the theory of the conditional performance score to binary endpoints by suggesting a related one-dimensional score parametrization. We moreover perform a simulation study to evaluate the operational characteristics and to illustrate application. RESULTS: We find that the score definition can be extended without modification to the case of binary endpoints. We represent the score results by a single distribution parameter, and therefore derive a single effect measure, which contains the difference in proportions [Formula: see text] between the intervention and the control group, as well as the endpoint proportion [Formula: see text] in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: This research extends the theory of the conditional performance score to binary endpoints and demonstrates its application in practice.

A systematic approach for calibrating a Monte Carlo code to a treatment planning system for obtaining dose, LET, variable proton RBE and out-of-field dose.

Objective. While integration of variable relative biological effectiveness (RBE) has not reached full clinical implementation, the importance of having the ability to recalculate proton treatment plans in a flexible, dedicated Monte Carlo (MC) code cannot be understated . Here we provide a step-wise method for calibrating dose from a MC code to a treatment planning system (TPS), to obtain required parameters for calculating linear energy transfer (LET), variable RBE and in general enabling clinical realistic research studies beyond the capabilities of a TPS.Approach. Initially, Pristine Bragg peaks (PBP) were calculated in both the Eclipse TPS and the FLUKA MC code. A rearranged Bortfeld energy-range relation was applied to the initial energy of the beam to fine-tune the range of the MC code at 80% dose level distal to the PBP. The energy spread was adapted by dividing the TPS range by the MC range for dose level 80%-20% distal to the PBP. Density and relative proton stopping power were adjusted by comparing the TPS and MC for different Hounsfield units. To find the relationship of dose per primary particle from the MC to dose per monitor unit in the TPS, integration was applied to the area of the Bragg curve. The calibration was validated for spread-out Bragg peaks (SOBP) in water and patient treatment plans. Following the validation, variable RBE were calculated using established models.Main results.The PBPs ranges were within ±0.3mm threshold, and a maximum of 5.5% difference for the SOBPs was observed. The patient validation showed excellent dose agreement between the TPS and MC, with the greatest differences for the lung tumor patient.Significance. Aprocedure for calibrating a MC code to a TPS was developed and validated. The procedure enables MC-based calculation of dose, LET, variable RBE, advanced (secondary) particle tracking and more from treatment plans.

Treatment verification in high dose rate brachytherapy using a realistic 3D printed head phantom and an imaging panel.

PURPOSE: Even though High Dose Rate (HDR) brachytherapy has good treatment outcomes in different treatment sites, treatment verification is far from widely implemented because of a lack of easily available solutions. Previously it has been shown that an imaging panel (IP) near the patient can be used to determine treatment parameters such as the dwell time and source positions in a single material pelvic phantom. In this study we will use a heterogeneous head phantom to test this IP approach, and simulate common treatment errors to assess the sensitivity and specificity of the error-detecting capabilities of the IP. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A heterogeneous head-phantom consisting of soft tissue and bone equivalent materials was 3D-printed to simulate a base of tongue treatment. An High Dose Rate treatment plan with 3 different catheters was used to simulate a treatment delivery, using dwell times ranging from 0.3 s to 4 s and inter-dwell distances of 2 mm. The IP was used to measure dwell times, positions and detect simulated errors. Measured dwell times and positions were used to calculate the delivered dose. RESULTS: Dwell times could be determined within 0.1 s. Source positions were measured with submillimeter accuracy in the plane of the IP, and average distance accuracy of 1.7 mm in three dimensions. All simulated treatment errors (catheter swap, catheter shift, afterloader errors) were detected. Dose calculations show slightly different distributions with the measured dwell positions and dwell times (gamma pass rate for 1 mm/1% of 96.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Using an IP, it was possible to verify the treatment in a realistic heterogeneous phantom and detect certain treatment errors.

Sample size recalculation based on the prevalence in a randomized test-treatment study.

BACKGROUND: Randomized test-treatment studies aim to evaluate the clinical utility of diagnostic tests by providing evidence on their impact on patient health. However, the sample size calculation is affected by several factors involved in the test-treatment pathway, including the prevalence of the disease. Sample size planning is exposed to strong uncertainties in terms of the necessary assumptions, which have to be compensated for accordingly by adjusting prospectively determined study parameters during the course of the study. METHOD: An adaptive design with a blinded sample size recalculation in a randomized test-treatment study based on the prevalence is proposed and evaluated by a simulation study. The results of the adaptive design are compared to those of the fixed design. RESULTS: The adaptive design achieves the desired theoretical power, under the assumption that all other nuisance parameters have been specified correctly, while wrong assumptions regarding the prevalence may lead to an over- or underpowered study in the fixed design. The empirical type I error rate is sufficiently controlled in the adaptive design as well as in the fixed design. CONCLUSION: The consideration of a blinded recalculation of the sample size already during the planning of the study may be advisable in order to increase the possibility of success as well as an enhanced process of the study. However, the application of the method is subject to a number of limitations associated with the study design in terms of feasibility, sample sizes needed to be achieved, and fulfillment of necessary prerequisites.

Confirmatory adaptive group sequential designs for single-arm phase II studies with multiple time-to-event endpoints.

Existing methods concerning the assessment of long-term survival outcomes in one-armed trials are commonly restricted to one primary endpoint. Corresponding adaptive designs suffer from limitations regarding the use of information from other endpoints in interim design changes. Here we provide adaptive group sequential one-sample tests for testing hypotheses on the multivariate survival distribution derived from multi-state models, while making provision for data-dependent design modifications based on all involved time-to-event endpoints. We explicitly elaborate application of the methodology to one-sample tests for the joint distribution of (i) progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in the context of an illness-death model, and (ii) time to toxicity and time to progression while accounting for death as a competing event. Large sample distributions are derived using a counting process approach. Small sample properties are studied by simulation. An already established multi-state model for non-small cell lung cancer is used to illustrate the adaptive procedure.

Conditional power and friends: The why and how of (un)planned, unblinded sample size recalculations in confirmatory trials.

Adapting the final sample size of a trial to the evidence accruing during the trial is a natural way to address planning uncertainty. Since the sample size is usually determined by an argument based on the power of the trial, an interim analysis raises the question of how the final sample size should be determined conditional on the accrued information. To this end, we first review and compare common approaches to estimating conditional power, which is often used in heuristic sample size recalculation rules. We then discuss the connection of heuristic sample size recalculation and optimal two-stage designs, demonstrating that the latter is the superior approach in a fully preplanned setting. Hence, unplanned design adaptations should only be conducted as reaction to trial-external new evidence, operational needs to violate the originally chosen design, or post hoc changes in the optimality criterion but not as a reaction to trial-internal data. We are able to show that commonly discussed sample size recalculation rules lead to paradoxical adaptations where an initially planned optimal design is not invariant under the adaptation rule even if the planning assumptions do not change. Finally, we propose two alternative ways of reacting to newly emerging trial-external evidence in ways that are consistent with the originally planned design to avoid such inconsistencies.

Mutual-Aided INS/Vision Navigation System Analysis and Optimization Using Sequential Filtering with State Recalculation.

This paper presents the implementation of a mutual-aided navigation system for an aerial vehicle. Employing all available sensors in navigation is effective at maintaining continuous and optimal results. The images offer a lot of information about the surrounding environment, but image processing is time-consuming and causes timing problems. While traditional fusion algorithms tend to reduce the delay errors or ignore them, this research depends on state estimation recalculation during the delay time and on sequential filtering. To reduce the image matching time, the map is processed offline, then key point clusters are stored to avoid feature recalculation online. The sensors' information is used to bound the search space for the matched features on the map, then they are reprojected on the captured images to exclude the unuseful part from processing. The suggested mutual-aided form compensates for the inertial system drift, which enhances the system's accuracy and independence. The system was tested using data collected from a real flight using a DJI drone. The measurements from an inertial measurement unit (IMU), camera, barometer, and magnetometer were fused using a sequential Kalman Filter. The final results prove the efficiency of the suggested system to navigate with high independency, with an RMS position error of less than 3.5 m.

Adaptive group sequential survival comparisons based on log-rank and pointwise test statistics.

Whereas the theory of confirmatory adaptive designs is well understood for uncensored data, implementation of adaptive designs in the context of survival trials remains challenging. Commonly used adaptive survival tests are based on the independent increments structure of the log-rank statistic. This implies some relevant limitations: On the one hand, essentially only the interim log-rank statistic may be used for design modifications (such as data-dependent sample size recalculation). Furthermore, the treatment arm allocation ratio in these classical methods is assumed to be constant throughout the trial period. Here, we propose an extension of the independent increments approach to adaptive survival tests that addresses some of these limitations. We present a confirmatory adaptive two-sample log-rank test that allows rejection regions and sample size recalculation rules to be based not only on the interim log-rank statistic, but also on point-wise survival rate estimates, simultaneously. In addition, the possibility is opened to adapt the treatment arm allocation ratio after each interim analysis in a data-dependent way. The ability to include point-wise survival rate estimators in the rejection region of a test for comparing survival curves might be attractive, e.g., for seamless phase II/III designs. Data-dependent adaptation of the allocation ratio could be helpful in multi-arm trials in order to successively steer recruitment into the study arms with the greatest chances of success. The methodology is motivated by the LOGGIC Europe Trial from pediatric oncology. Distributional properties are derived using martingale techniques in the large sample limit. Small sample properties are studied by simulation.

Improved adaptive radiotherapy to adjust for anatomical alterations during curative treatment for locally advanced lung cancer.

Anatomical changes during chemoradiation for lung cancer may decrease dose to the target or increase dose to organs at risk. To assess our ability to identify clinically significant anatomical alterations, we followed 67 lung cancer patients by daily cone-beam CT scans to ensure correct patient positioning and observe anatomical alterations. We also re-calculated the original dose distribution on a planned control CT scan obtained halfway during the treatment course to identify anatomical changes that potentially affected doses to the target or organs at risk. Of 66 patients who completed the treatment, 12 patients needed adaptation, two patients were adapted twice. We conclude that daily cone-beam CT and routines at the treatment machine discover relevant anatomical changes during curative radiotherapy for patients with lung cancer without additional imaging.

Improving sample size recalculation in adaptive clinical trials by resampling.

Sample size calculations in clinical trials need to be based on profound parameter assumptions. Wrong parameter choices may lead to too small or too high sample sizes and can have severe ethical and economical consequences. Adaptive group sequential study designs are one solution to deal with planning uncertainties. Here, the sample size can be updated during an ongoing trial based on the observed interim effect. However, the observed interim effect is a random variable and thus does not necessarily correspond to the true effect. One way of dealing with the uncertainty related to this random variable is to include resampling elements in the recalculation strategy. In this paper, we focus on clinical trials with a normally distributed endpoint. We consider resampling of the observed interim test statistic and apply this principle to several established sample size recalculation approaches. The resulting recalculation rules are smoother than the original ones and thus the variability in sample size is lower. In particular, we found that some resampling approaches mimic a group sequential design. In general, incorporating resampling of the interim test statistic in existing sample size recalculation rules results in a substantial performance improvement with respect to a recently published conditional performance score.

A new conditional performance score for the evaluation of adaptive group sequential designs with sample size recalculation.

In standard clinical trial designs, the required sample size is fixed in the planning stage based on initial parameter assumptions. It is intuitive that the correct choice of the sample size is of major importance for an ethical justification of the trial. The required parameter assumptions should be based on previously published results from the literature. In clinical practice, however, historical data often do not exist or show highly variable results. Adaptive group sequential designs allow a sample size recalculation after a planned unblinded interim analysis in order to adjust the sample size during the ongoing trial. So far, there exist no unique standards to assess the performance of sample size recalculation rules. Single performance criteria commonly reported are given by the power and the average sample size; the variability of the recalculated sample size and the conditional power distribution are usually ignored. Therefore, the need for an adequate performance score combining these relevant performance criteria is evident. To judge the performance of an adaptive design, there exist two possible perspectives, which might also be combined: Either the global performance of the design can be addressed, which averages over all possible interim results, or the conditional performance is addressed, which focuses on the remaining performance conditional on a specific interim result. In this work, we give a compact overview of sample size recalculation rules and performance measures. Moreover, we propose a new conditional performance score and apply it to various standard recalculation rules by means of Monte-Carlo simulations.

Effects of different CT value assignment methods on dose calculations in radiotherapy planning for brain metastases.

BACKGROUND: To study the effects of different CT value assignment methods on the dose calculations in radiotherapy plans for brain metastases, this study will provide a reference for radiotherapy planning design based on MR images. METHODS: All fifty recruited patients underwent CT and MR simulated localization the same day as, but prior to, three dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) or intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for brain metastases. After rigid registration of both the CT and MR images, the main tissues and organs were delineated on the CT and MR images. The average CT value of each tissue or organ was calculated. Three groups of pseudo-CT were generated by three CT value assignment methods: (I) the whole tissue was assigned 140 HU; (II) cavity, bone and other tissues were assigned -700, 700 and 20 HU, respectively; (III) tissue- and organ-specific CT values were given. The dose distribution was recalculated based on the three groups of pseudo-CT to obtain Plan2, Plan3 and Plan4, accordingly. The resultant radiotherapy plans were considered the original plan (Plan1). Then, the dosimetric differences between these three plans and Plan1 were compared. RESULTS: The average pseudo-CT values of bone and cavity were 731.7±69.3 and -725.5±26.1 HU, respectively. The range of average soft-tissue CT values was from -70 to 70 HU. The dose distribution between Plan1 and Plan2, Plan3 or Plan4 showed some differences, and the differences decreased in turn. The differences in the maximum dose of the lenses can reach 5.0%, 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, while the differences in other dose parameters (maximum dose, mean dose and D 98% to the PTV, D 5% of the brainstem, and maximum dose of the brainstem, corpus callosum, left eye, right eye) were basically less than 2.0%, 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively. This shows that in the CT value assignment method, the dose calculation error can be greatly reduced by assigning the value to the bone and cavity separately, and if the different soft tissues are distinguished, the error of the dose calculation can be further reduced by more than 30%. In the pixel-by-pixel dosimetric comparison, the areas of more than 1% dose difference between Plan1 and Plan3 as well as Plan4 were mainly distributed near skin while those between Plan1 and Plan2 were mainly distributed at the bone, cavity, bone and soft tissues junction, and the skin near the field. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, a scheme for assigning specific CT values to MRI-based radiotherapy is established. The scheme will provide patients with a dose-free radiotherapy plan. Through the calculation of the differences between the new plans and the old plan, it is found that our scheme can basically control the dose error below 0.8% to meet the clinical requirements.

Accurate estimation of daily delivered radiotherapy dose with an external treatment planning system.

Accurate estimation of the daily radiotherapy dose is challenging in a multi-institutional collaboration when the institution specific treatment planning system (TPS) is not available. We developed and evaluated a method to tackle this problem. Residual errors in daily estimations were minimized with single correction based on the planned dose. For nine patients, medians of the absolute estimation errors for targets and OARs were less than 0.2 Gy ( D mean ), 0.3 Gy ( D 1 ), and 0.1 Gy ( D 99 ). In general, mimicking errors were significantly smaller than dose differences caused by anatomical changes. The demonstrated accuracy may facilitate dose accumulation in a multi-institutional/multi-vendor setting.

Evaluation of an a priori scatter correction algorithm for cone-beam computed tomography based range and dose calculations in proton therapy.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Scatter correction of cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) projections may enable accurate online dose-delivery estimations in photon and proton-based radiotherapy. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of scatter correction in CBCT-based proton range/dose calculations, in scans acquired in both proton and photon gantries. MATERIAL AND METHODS: CBCT projections of a Catphan and an Alderson phantom were acquired on both a proton and a photon gantry. The scatter corrected CBCTs (corrCBCTs) and the clinical reconstructions (stdCBCTs) were compared against CTs rigidly registered to the CBCTs (rigidCTs). The CBCTs of the Catphan phantom were segmented by materials for CT number analysis. Water equivalent path length (WEPL) maps were calculated through the Alderson phantom while proton plans optimized on the rigidCT and recalculated on all CBCTs were compared in a gamma analysis. RESULTS: In medium and high-density materials, the corrCBCT CT numbers were much closer to those of the rigidCT than the stdCBCTs. E.g. in the 50% bone segmentations the differences were reduced from above 300 HU (with stdCBCT) to around 60-70 HU (with corrCBCT). Differences in WEPL from the rigidCT were typically well below 5 mm for the corrCBCTs, compared to well above 10 mm for the stdCBCTs with the largest deviations in the head and thorax regions. Gamma pass rates (2%/2mm) when comparing CBCT-based dose re-calculations to rigidCT calculations were improved from around 80% (with stdCBCT) to mostly above 90% (with corrCBCT). CONCLUSION: Scatter correction leads to substantial artefact reductions, improving accuracy of CBCT-based proton range/dose calculations.

Sample size calculation and blinded recalculation for analysis of covariance models with multiple random covariates.

When testing for superiority in a parallel-group setting with a continuous outcome, adjusting for covariates is usually recommended. For this purpose, the analysis of covariance is frequently used, and recently several exact and approximate sample size calculation procedures have been proposed. However, in case of multiple covariates, the planning might pose some practical challenges and pitfalls. Therefore, we propose a method, which allows for blinded re-estimation of the sample size during the course of the trial. Simulations confirm that the proposed method provides reliable results in many practically relevant situations, and applicability is illustrated by a real-life data example.

Validity of sample sizes in publications of randomised controlled trials on the treatment of age-related macular degeneration: cross-sectional evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this cross-sectional study was to examine the completeness and accuracy of the reporting of sample size calculations in randomised controlled trial (RCT) publications on the treatment of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS: A sample of 97 RCTs published between 2004 and 2014 was reviewed for the calculation of their sample size. It was examined whether a (complete) description of the sample size calculation was presented. Furthermore, the sample size was recalculated, whenever possible based on the published details, in order to verify the reported number of patients. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary endpoint of this cross-sectional investigation was a described sample size calculation that was reproducible, complete and correct (maximum tolerated deviation between reported and replicated sample size ±2 participants per trial arm). RESULTS: A total of 50 publications (52%) did not provide any information on the justification of the number of patients included. Only 17 publications (18%) provided all the necessary parameters for recalculation; 8 of 97 (8%, 95%-CI: 4% to 16%) publications achieved the primary endpoint. The median relative deviation between reported and recalculated sample sizes was 1%, with a range from -43% to +66%. CONCLUSION: Although a transparent sample size legitimation is a crucial determinant of an RCT's methodological validity, more than half of the RCT publications considered failed to report them. Furthermore, reported sample size legitimations were often incomplete or incorrect. In summary, clinical authors should pay more attention to the transparent reporting of sample size calculation, and clinical journal reviewers may opt to reproduce reported sample size calculations. SYNOPSIS: More than half of the analysed RCT publications on the treatment of AMD did not report a transparent sample size calculation. Only 8% reported a complete and correct sample size calculation.

Adaptive propensity score procedure improves matching in prospective observational trials.

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials are the gold-standard for clinical trials. However, randomization is not always feasible. In this article we propose a prospective and adaptive matched case-control trial design assuming that a control group already exists. METHODS: We propose and discuss an interim analysis step to estimate the matching rate using a resampling step followed by a sample size recalculation. The sample size recalculation is based on the observed mean resampling matching rate. We applied our approach in a simulation study and to a real data set to evaluate the characteristics of the proposed design and to compare the results to a naive approach. RESULTS: The proposed design achieves at least 10% higher matching rate than the naive approach at final analysis, thus providing a better estimation of the true matching rate. A good choice for the interim analysis seems to be a fraction of around [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] of the control patients. CONCLUSION: The proposed resampling step in a prospective matched case-control trial design leads to an improved estimate of the final matching rate and, thus, to a gain in power of the approach due to sensible sample size recalculation.

Independent recalculation outperforms traditional measurement-based IMRT QA methods in detecting unacceptable plans.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the performance of an independent recalculation and compare it against current measurement-based patient specific intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) quality assurance (QA) in predicting unacceptable phantom results as measured by the Imaging and Radiation Oncology Core (IROC). METHODS: When institutions irradiate the IROC head and neck IMRT phantom, they are also asked to submit their internal IMRT QA results. Separately from this, IROC has previously created reference beam models on the Mobius3D platform to independently recalculate phantom results based on the institution's DICOM plan data. The ability of the institutions' IMRT QA to predict the IROC phantom result was compared against the independent recalculation for 339 phantom results collected since 2012. This was done to determine the ability of these systems to detect failing phantom results (i.e., large errors) as well as poor phantom results (i.e., modest errors). Sensitivity and specificity were evaluated using common clinical thresholds, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare across different thresholds. RESULTS: Overall, based on common clinical criteria, the independent recalculation was 12 times more sensitive at detecting unacceptable (failing) IROC phantom results than clinical measurement-based IMRT QA. The recalculation was superior, in head-to-head comparison, to the EPID, ArcCheck, and MapCheck devices. The superiority of the recalculation vs these array-based measurements persisted under ROC analysis as the recalculation curve had a greater area under it and was always above that for these measurement devices. For detecting modest errors (poor phantom results rather than failing phantom results), neither the recalculation nor measurement-based IMRT QA performed well. CONCLUSIONS: A simple recalculation outperformed current measurement-based IMRT QA methods at detecting unacceptable plans. These findings highlight the value of an independent recalculation, and raise further questions about the current standard of measurement-based IMRT QA.

[Study of Dose Recalculation Method on Overriding Lung Density Using CBCT Image in the Thorax].

It is a useful method for the adaptive radiotherapy (ART) to calculate absorbed dose accurately on the image set taken by on-board cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) attached to linac for image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT). For this purpose, a simple and accurate calculation method is necessary. Several papers report that it is possible to calculate easily and accurately by using several methods of researches in the neck and prostate, but the lung density varies greatly depending on patient thorax condition. In this study, we propose a new dose recalculation method, which is a simple procedure and can achieve accurate dose calculation considered different lung densities in each patient. By using this method, it is possible to calculate exclusive of artifacts in CBCT because of overriding the lung density. The dose error between dose recalculation of the CBCT image and treatment plan agreed within±1%. Therefore, this method is expected to be a useful method for accurate dose calculation with CBCT image for ART.