Matrix imaging as a tool for high-resolution monitoring of deep volcanic plumbing systems with seismic noise.

Volcanic eruptions necessitate precise monitoring of magma pressure and inflation for improved forecasting. Understanding deep magma storage is crucial for hazard assessment, yet imaging these systems is challenging due to complex heterogeneities that disrupt standard seismic migration techniques. Here we map the magmatic and hydrothermal system of the La Soufrière volcano in Guadeloupe by analyzing seismic noise data from a sparse geophone array under a matrix formalism. Seismic noise interferometry provides a reflection matrix containing the signature of echoes from deep heterogeneities. Using wave correlations resistant to disorder, matrix imaging successfully unscrambles wave distortions, revealing La Soufrière's internal structure down to 10 km with 100 m resolution. This method surpasses the diffraction limit imposed by geophone array aperture, providing crucial data for modeling and high-resolution monitoring. We see matrix imaging as a revolutionary tool for understanding volcanic systems and enhancing observatories' abilities to monitor dynamics and forecast eruptions.

An estimate of the impact rate on Mars from statistics of very-high-frequency marsquakes.

The number density of impact craters on a planetary surface is used to determine its age, which requires a model for the production rate of craters of different sizes. On Mars, however, estimates of the production rate of small craters (<60 m) from orbital imagery and from extrapolation of lunar impact data do not match. Here we provide a new independent estimate of the impact rate by analysing the seismic events recorded by the seismometer onboard NASA's InSight lander. Some previously confirmed seismically detected impacts are part of a larger class of marsquakes (very high frequency, VF). Although a non-impact origin cannot be definitively excluded for each VF event, we show that the VF class as a whole is plausibly caused by meteorite impacts. We use an empirical scaling relationship to convert between seismic moment and crater diameter. Applying area and time corrections to derive a global impact rate, we find that 280-360 craters >8 m diameter are formed globally per year, consistent with previously published chronology model rates and above the rates derived from freshly imaged craters. Our work shows that seismology is an effective tool for determining meteoroid impact rates and complements other methods such as orbital imaging.

Explosive eruption style modulates volcanic electrification signals.

Volcanic lightning detection has proven useful to volcano monitoring by providing information on eruption onset, source parameters, and ash cloud directions. However, little is known about the influence of changing eruptive styles on the generation of charge and electrical discharges inside the eruption column. The 2021 Tajogaite eruption (La Palma, Canary Islands) provided the rare opportunity to monitor variations in electrical activity continuously over several weeks using an electrostatic lightning detector. Here we show that throughout the eruption, silicate particle charging is the main electrification mechanism. Moreover, we find that the type of electrical activity is closely linked to the explosive eruption style. Fluctuations in the electrical discharge rates are likely controlled by variations in the mass eruption rate and/or changes in the eruption style. These findings hold promise for obtaining near real-time information on the dynamic evolution of explosive volcanic activity through electrostatic monitoring in the future.

Quantifying spatial peat depth with seismic micronodes and the implications for carbon stock estimates.

Peatlands are a major store of soil carbon, due to their high concentration of carbon-rich decayed plant material. Consequently, accurate assessment of peat volumes is important for determining land-use carbon budgets, especially in the Northern hemisphere. Determination of carbon stocks at the scale of individual peat sites has principally relied on either mechanical probing or electromagnetic geophysical methods. In this study, we investigated the use of seismic nodal instrumentation for quantifying peat depth. We used Stryde™ nodes for a deployment at the Whixall moss in Shropshire, England. We measured seismic arrival times from peat-bottom reflections, as well as dispersive surface waves to invert for a model of variable peat depth along a linear cross-section. The use of very small seismic nodes (micronodes) allows for particularly rapid deployment on challenging terrain.

SEISMONOISY: A Quasi-Real-Time Seismic Noise Network Monitoring System.

This paper introduces SEISMONOISY, an application designed for monitoring the spatiotemporal characteristic and variability of the seismic noise of an entire seismic network with a quasi-real-time monitoring approach. Actually, we have applied the developed system to monitor 12 seismic networks distributed throughout the Italian territory. These networks include the Rete Sismica Nazionale (RSN) as well as other regional networks with smaller coverage areas. Our noise monitoring system uses the methods of Spectral Power Density (PSD) and Probability Density Function (PDF) applied to 12 h long seismic traces in a 24 h cycle for each station, enabling the extrapolation of noise characteristics at seismic stations after a Seismic Noise Level Index (SNLI), which takes into account the global seismic noise model, is derived. The SNLI value can be used for different applications, including network performance evaluation, the identification of operational problems, site selection for new installations, and for scientific research applications (e.g., volcano monitoring, identification of active seismic sequences, etc.). Additionally, it aids in studying the main noise sources across different frequency bands and changes in the characteristics of background seismic noise over time.

Growth and stabilization of induced seismicity rates during long-term, low-pressure fluid injection.

We examine the temporal evolution of sequences of induced seismicity caused by long-term fluid injection using a compilation of over 20 case studies where moderate magnitude (M > 3.0) induced events have been recorded. We compare rates of seismicity with injection rates via the seismogenic index and seismic efficiency parameters, computing both cumulative and time-windowed values. We find that cumulative values tend to accelerate steeply as each seismicity sequence initiates-most cases reach a value that is within 0.5 units of their maximum value within 1-3 years. Time-windowed values tend to increase to maximum values within 25%-35% of the overall sequence, before decreasing as levels of seismicity stabilize. We interpret these observations with respect to the pore pressure changes that will be generated in highly porous, high permeability reservoirs. In such situations, the rate of pore pressure change is highest during the early phases of injection and decreases with time. If induced seismicity scales with the rate of deformation, which in turn is controlled by the rate of pore pressure change, then it is to be expected that induced seismicity is highest during the early phases of injection, and then decreases with time. This article is part of the theme issue 'Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems'.

Are maximum magnitudes of induced earthquakes controlled by pressure diffusion?

There is an ongoing discussion about how to forecast the maximum magnitudes of induced earthquakes based on operational parameters, subsurface conditions and physical process understanding. Although the occurrence of damage caused by induced earthquakes is rare, some cases have caused significant economic loss, injuries and even loss of life. We analysed a global compilation of earthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing, geothermal reservoir stimulation, water disposal, gas storage and reservoir impoundment. Our analysis showed that maximum magnitudes scale with the characteristic length of pressure diffusion in the brittle Earth's crust. We observed an increase in the nucleation potential of larger-magnitude earthquakes with time and explained it by diffusion-controlled growth of the pressure-perturbed part of faults. Numerical and analytical fault size modelling supported our findings. Finally, we derived magnitude scaling laws to manage induced seismic hazard of upcoming energy projects prior to operation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems'.

Probabilistic estimation of the source component of seismic hazard in North-Eastern Brazil.

Stable continental regions pose unique challenges for conducting Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis because the earthquake activity driving mechanisms are poorly understood. For instance, the lower seismicity (hence the paucity of data) and the absence of well-defined active fault systems complicate accurately determining seismic source parameters. Northeastern Brazil is a stable continental region exhibiting moderate-size events recorded with significant seismic intensities and provoking the collapse of poorly constructed buildings in the last century. Thus, assessing the seismic hazard is critical for seismic risk mitigation. The seismic hazard depends on three components: source, path, and site, and here, we present the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the source component for NE Brazil. Spatial aggregation of earthquake sources outlined four areal seismic zones. A goodness-of-fit test rejected the Gutenberg-Richter model of magnitude frequency distribution in one of the studied seismic zones. For this reason, we estimated the magnitude probability distribution function in that zone using a nonparametric adaptive kernel estimator. In other zones the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency model was applied. In either way of the magnitude probability distribution modelling we considered the upper bound for magnitude equal to 6.6 mR, based on the upper bound of a 95 % confidence interval for the standard normal distribution of palaeoearthquake sizes. Our findings suggests that potentially damaging events are likely to occur, and we cannot neglect chances for the occurrence of earthquakes exceeding 5.2 mR. The calculated mean return periods indicate significantly shorter intervals between consecutive large events than palaeoseismic records.

Toward Structural Health Monitoring with the MyShake Smartphone Network.

The field of structural health monitoring (SHM) faces a fundamental challenge related to accessibility. While analytical and empirical models and laboratory tests can provide engineers with an estimate of a structure's expected behavior under various loads, measurements of actual buildings require the installation and maintenance of sensors to collect observations. This is costly in terms of power and resources. MyShake, the free seismology smartphone app, aims to advance SHM by leveraging the presence of accelerometers in all smartphones and the wide usage of smartphones globally. MyShake records acceleration waveforms during earthquakes. Because phones are most typically located in buildings, a waveform recorded by MyShake contains response information from the structure in which the phone is located. This represents a free, potentially ubiquitous method of conducting critical structural measurements. In this work, we present preliminary findings that demonstrate the efficacy of smartphones for extracting the fundamental frequency of buildings, benchmarked against traditional accelerometers in a shake table test. Additionally, we present seven proof-of-concept examples of data collected by anonymous and privately owned smartphones running the MyShake app in real buildings, and assess the fundamental frequencies we measure. In all cases, the measured fundamental frequency is found to be reasonable and within an expected range in comparison with several commonly used empirical equations. For one irregularly shaped building, three separate measurements made over the course of four months fall within 7% of each other, validating the accuracy of MyShake measurements and illustrating how repeat observations can improve the robustness of the structural health catalog we aim to build.

Connection between Variations of the Probability Distribution of the Recurrence Time and Phases of the Seismic Activity.

The probability distribution of the interevent time between two successive earthquakes has been the subject of numerous studies for its key role in seismic hazard assessment. In recent decades, many distributions have been considered, and there has been a long debate about the possible universality of the shape of this distribution when the interevent times are properly rescaled. In this work, we aim to discover if there is a link between the different phases of a seismic cycle and the variations in the distribution that best fits the interevent times. To do this, we consider the seismic activity related to the Mw 6.1 L'Aquila earthquake that occurred on 6 April 2009 in central Italy by analyzing the sequence of events recorded from April 2005 to July 2009, and then the seismic activity linked to the sequence of the Amatrice-Norcia earthquakes of Mw 6 and 6.5, respectively, and recorded in the period from January 2009 to June 2018. We take into account some of the most studied distributions in the literature: q-exponential, q-generalized gamma, gamma and exponential distributions and, according to the Bayesian paradigm, we compare the value of their posterior marginal likelihood in shifting time windows with a fixed number of data. The results suggest that the distribution providing the best performance changes over time and its variations may be associated with different phases of the seismic crisis.