Twenty-five emerging questions when detecting, understanding, and predicting future fish distributions in a changing climate.

The 2023 Annual Symposium of the Fisheries Society of the British Isles hosted opportunities for researchers, scientists, and policy makers to reflect on the state of art of predicting fish distributions and consider the implications to the marine and aquatic environments of a changing climate. The outcome of one special interest group at the Symposium was a collection of questions, organized under five themes, which begin to capture the state of the field and identify priorities for research and management over the coming years. The five themes were Physiology, Mechanisms, Detect and Measure, Manage, and Wider Ecosystems. The questions, 25 of them, addressed concepts which remain poorly understood, are data deficient, and/or are likely to be impacted in measurable or profound ways by climate change. Moving from the first to the last theme, the questions expanded in the scope of their considerations, from specific processes within the individual to ecosystem-wide impacts, but no one question is bigger than any other: each is important in detecting, understanding, and predicting fish distributions, and each will be impacted by an aspect of climate change. In this way, our questions, particularly those concerning unknown mechanisms and data deficiencies, aimed to offer a guide to other researchers, managers, and policy makers in the prioritization of future work as a changing climate is expected to have complex and disperse impacts on fish populations and distributions that will require a coordinated effort to address.

Insufficient and biased representation of species geographic responses to climate change.

The geographic redistributions of species due to a rapidly changing climate are poised to perturb ecological communities and significantly impact ecosystems and human livelihoods. Effectively managing these biological impacts requires a thorough understanding of the patterns and processes of species geographic range shifts. While substantial recent redistributions have been identified and recognized to vary by taxon, region, and range geometry, there are large gaps and biases in the available evidence. Here, we use the largest compilation of geographic range change observations to date, comprised of 33,016 potential redistributions across 12,009 species, to formally assess within- and cross-species coverage and biases and to motivate future data collection. We find that species coverage varies strongly by taxon and underrepresents species at high and low latitudes. Within species, assessments of potential redistributions came from parts of their geographic range that were highly uneven and non-representative. For most species and taxa, studies were strongly biased toward the colder parts of species' distributions and thus significantly underrepresented populations that might get pushed beyond their maximum temperature limits. Coverage of potential leading and trailing geographic range edges under a changing climate was similarly uneven. Only 8% of studied species were assessed at both high and low latitude and elevation range edges, with most only covered at one edge. This suggests that substantial within-species biases exacerbate the considerable geographic and taxonomic among-species unevenness in evidence. Our results open the door for a more quantitative accounting for existing knowledge biases in climate change ecology and a more informed management and conservation. Our findings offer guidance for future data collection that better addresses information gaps and provides a more effective foundation for managing the biological impacts of climate change.

The InBIO Barcoding Initiative Database: DNA barcodes of Portuguese moths.

Background: The InBIO Barcoding Initiative (IBI) Dataset - DS-IBILP08 contains records of 2350 specimens of moths (Lepidoptera species that do not belong to the superfamily Papilionoidea). All specimens have been morphologically identified to species or subspecies level and represent 1158 species in total. The species of this dataset correspond to about 42% of mainland Portuguese Lepidoptera species. All specimens were collected in mainland Portugal between 2001 and 2022. All DNA extracts and over 96% of the specimens are deposited in the IBI collection at CIBIO, Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources. New information: The authors enabled "The InBIO Barcoding Initiative Database: DNA barcodes of Portuguese moths" in order to release the majority of data of DNA barcodes of Portuguese moths within the InBIO Barcoding Initiative. This dataset increases the knowledge on the DNA barcodes of 1158 species from Portugal belonging to 51 families. There is an increase in DNA barcodes of 205% in Portuguese specimens publicly available. The dataset includes 61 new Barcode Index Numbers. All specimens have their DNA barcodes publicly accessible through BOLD online database and the distribution data can be accessed through the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF).

The InBIO Barcoding Initiative Database: DNA barcodes of Orthoptera from Portugal.

Background: The InBIO Barcoding Initiative (IBI) Orthoptera dataset contains records of 420 specimens covering all the eleven Orthoptera families occurring in Portugal. Specimens were collected in continental Portugal from 2005 to 2021 and were morphologically identified to species level by taxonomists. A total of 119 species were identified corresponding to about 77% of all the orthopteran species known from continental Portugal. New information: DNA barcodes of 54 taxa were made public for the first time at the Barcode of Life Data System (BOLD). Furthermore, the submitted sequences were found to cluster in 129 BINs (Barcode Index Numbers), 35 of which were new additions to the Barcode of Life Data System (BOLD). All specimens have their DNA barcodes publicly accessible through BOLD online database. Stenobothruslineatus is recorded for the first time for continental Portugal. This dataset greatly increases the knowledge on the DNA barcodes and distribution of Orthoptera from Portugal. All DNA extractions and most specimens are deposited in the IBI collection at CIBIO, Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources.

Biodiversity dataset and atlas of the special area of conservation Montesinho/Nogueira, Portugal.

Background: The special area of conservation Montesinho/Nogueira (SAC-MN) is a key area for biodiversity conservation in the Iberian Peninsula. Covering an area of approximately 1081 km² in the northeast of Portugal mainland, the SAC-MN is home to a wide range of species, including several endemic and endangered species and priority habitats. Despite its ecological significance and importance for conservation, there is a lack of publicly available biodiversity data, which urges the need to create a comprehensive and up-to-date biodiversity dataset for the SAC-MN. New information: To bridge the knowledge gap on biodiversity in SAC-MN, we undertook a thorough data collection process, including species occurrence records and conservation status information at regional (Portugal) and European levels, from multiple sources. We collected and compiled this information for five major taxonomic groups (amphibians, birds, flora - vascular plants, mammals and reptiles) in SAC-MN, resulting in a total of 31,871 records with 1,312 documented species. In addition, we developed an easy-to-navigate web-based geographic information system (Web GIS). In this article, we present an in-depth report on the process of compiling and preparing data, as well as the development and design of our Web GIS to increase awareness and enhance understanding of the importance of preserving biodiversity in SAC-MN.

Data-driven determination of zooplankton bioregions and robustness analysis.

Identifying biogeographic regions through cluster analysis of species distribution data is a common method for partitioning ecosystems. Selecting the appropriate cluster analysis method requires a comparison of multiple algorithms. In this study, we demonstrate a data-driven process to select a method for bioregionalization based on community data and test its robustness to data variability following these steps: •We aggregated and curated zooplankton community observations from expeditions in the Northeast Pacific.•We determined the best bioregionalization approach by comparing nine cluster analysis methods using ten goodness of clustering indices.•We evaluated the robustness of the bioregionalization to different sources of sampling and taxonomic variability by comparing the bioregionalization of the overall dataset with bioregionalizations of subsets of the data. The K-means clustering of the log-chord transformed abundance was selected as the optimal method for bioregionalization of the zooplankton dataset. This clustering resulted in the emergence of four bioregions along the cross-shelf gradient: the Offshore, Deep Shelf, Nearshore, and Deep Fjord bioregions. The robustness analyses demonstrated that the bioregionalization was consistent despite variability in the spatial and temporal frequency of sampling, sampling methodology, and taxonomic coverage.

Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds.

Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.

Productivity declines threaten East African soda lakes and the iconic Lesser Flamingo.

Soda lakes are some of the most productive aquatic ecosystems.1 Their alkaline-saline waters sustain unique phytoplankton communities2,3 and provide vital habitats for highly specialized biodiversity including invertebrates, endemic fish species, and Lesser Flamingos (Phoeniconaias minor).1,4 More than three-quarters of Lesser Flamingos inhabit the soda lakes of East Africa5; however, populations are in decline.6 Declines could be attributed to their highly specialized diet of cyanobacteria7 and dependence on a network of soda lake feeding habitats that are highly sensitive to climate fluctuations and catchment degradation.8,9,10,11,12 However, changing habitat availability has not been assessed due to a lack of in situ water quality and hydrology data and the irregular monitoring of these waterbodies.13 Here, we combine satellite Earth observations and Lesser Flamingo abundance observations to quantify spatial and temporal trends in productivity and ecosystem health over multiple decades at 22 soda lakes across East Africa. We found that Lesser Flamingo distributions are best explained by phytoplankton biomass, an indicator of food availability. However, timeseries analyses revealed significant declines in phytoplankton biomass from 1999 to 2022, most likely driven by substantial rises in lake water levels. Declining productivity has reduced the availability of healthy soda lake ecosystems, most notably in equatorial Kenya and northern Tanzania. Our results highlight the increasing vulnerability of Lesser Flamingos and other soda lake biodiversity in East Africa, particularly with increased rainfall predicted under climate change.14,15,16 Without improved lake monitoring and catchment management practices, soda lake ecosystems could be pushed beyond their environmental tolerances. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Identifying Areas of Invasion Risk and Changes in the Ecological Niche Occupied by the Coffee Leaf Miner Leucoptera coffeella (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae).

Insects of economic importance such as Leucoptera coffeella can cause high defoliation in plants and reduce crop yields. We aimed to identify changes in the ecological niche and potential zones of the invasion. Occurrence records were obtained from databases and bibliography. WorldClim V2.0 bioclimatic layers were used. For the modeling of the potential distribution, the kuenm R package was used by executing the Maxent algorithm. The potential distribution models suggested greatest environmental suitability extends from Europe, South Asia, and Central and South Africa, showing the "tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests" as the ecoregion that presents the greatest probability of the presence of L. coffeella. The potential distribution model projected in the invaded area agrees with the known distribution in the region (America), although the results show that it is occupying environmental spaces not present in the area of origin. This species presented a large proportion of the invaded niche that overlaps the native niche and is colonizing new environmental conditions in the invaded area relative to its native distribution (Africa). This information could be used in the planning of coffee crops on the American continent.

The InBIO Barcoding Initiative Database: DNA barcodes of Iberian Bees.

Background: Bees are important actors in terrestrial ecosystems and are recognised for their prominent role as pollinators. In the Iberian Peninsula, approximately 1,100 bee species are known, with nearly 100 of these species being endemic to the Peninsula. A reference collection of DNA barcodes, based on morphologically identified bee specimens, representing 514 Iberian species, was constructed. The "InBIO Barcoding Initiative Database: DNA Barcodes of Iberian bees" dataset contains records of 1,059 sequenced specimens. The species of this dataset correspond to about 47% of Iberian bee species diversity and 21% of endemic species diversity. For peninsular Portugal only, the corresponding coverage is 71% and 50%. Specimens were collected between 2014 and 2022 and are deposited in the research collection of Thomas Wood (Naturalis Biodiversity Center, The Netherlands), in the FLOWer Lab collection at the University of Coimbra (Portugal), in the Andreia Penado collection at the Natural History and Science Museum of the University of Porto (MHNC-UP) (Portugal) and in the InBIO Barcoding Initiative (IBI) reference collection (Vairão, Portugal). New information: Of the 514 species sequenced, 75 species from five different families are new additions to the Barcode of Life Data System (BOLD) and 112 new BINs were added. Whilst the majority of species were assigned to a single BIN (94.9%), 27 nominal species were assigned to multiple BINs. Although the placement into multiple BINs may simply reflect genetic diversity and variation, it likely also represents currently unrecognised species-level diversity across diverse taxa, such as Amegillaalbigena Lepeletier, 1841, Andrenarussula Lepeletier, 1841, Lasioglossumleucozonium (Schrank, 1781), Nomadafemoralis Morawitz, 1869 and Sphecodesalternatus Smith, 1853. Further species pairs of Colletes, Hylaeus and Nomada were placed into the same BINs, emphasising the need for integrative taxonomy within Iberia and across the Mediterranean Basin more broadly. These data substantially contribute to our understanding of bee genetic diversity and DNA barcodes in Iberia and provide an important baseline for ongoing taxonomic revisions in the West Palaearctic biogeographical region.

Multiscale stability of an intertidal kelp (Postelsia palmaeformis) near its northern range edge through a period of prolonged heatwaves.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate change, including gradual changes and extreme weather events, is driving widespread species losses and range shifts. These climatic changes are felt acutely in intertidal ecosystems, where many organisms live close to their thermal limits and experience the extremes of both marine and terrestrial environments. A recent series of multiyear heatwaves in the northeast Pacific Ocean might have impacted species even towards their cooler, northern range edges. Among them, the high intertidal kelp Postelsia palmaeformis has traits that could make it particularly vulnerable to climate change, but it is critically understudied. METHODS: In 2021 and 2022, we replicated in situ and aerial P. palmaeformis surveys that were conducted originally in 2006 and 2007, in order to assess the state of northern populations following recent heatwaves. Changes in P. palmaeformis distribution, extent, density and morphometrics were assessed between these two time points over three spatial scales, ranging from 250 m grid cells across the entire 167 km study region, to within grid cells and the individual patch. KEY RESULTS: We found evidence consistent with population stability at all three scales: P. palmaeformis remained present in all 250 m grid cells in the study region where it was previously found, and neither the extent within cells nor the patch density changed significantly between time points. However, there was evidence of slight distributional expansion, increased blade lengths and a shift to earlier reproductive timing. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that apparent long-term stability of P. palmaeformis might be attributable to thermal buffering near its northern range edge and from the wave-exposed coastlines it inhabits, which may have decreased the impacts of heatwaves. Our results highlight the importance of multiscale assessments when examining changes within species and populations, in addition to the importance of dispersal capability and local conditions in regulating the responses of species to climate change.

High-resolution data are necessary to understand the effects of climate on plant population dynamics of a forest herb.

Climate is assumed to strongly influence species distribution and abundance. Although the performance of many organisms is influenced by the climate in their immediate proximity, the climate data used to model their distributions often have a coarse spatial resolution. This is problematic because the local climate experienced by individuals might deviate substantially from the regional average. This problem is likely to be particularly important for sessile organisms like plants and in environments where small-scale variation in climate is large. To quantify the effect of local temperature on vital rates and population growth rates, we used temperature values measured at the local scale (in situ logger measures) and integral projection models with demographic data from 37 populations of the forest herb Lathyrus vernus across a wide latitudinal gradient in Sweden. To assess how the spatial resolution of temperature data influences assessments of climate effects, we compared effects from models using local data with models using regionally aggregated temperature data at several spatial resolutions (≥1 km). Using local temperature data, we found that spring frost reduced the asymptotic population growth rate in the first of two annual transitions and influenced survival in both transitions. Only one of the four regional estimates showed a similar negative effect of spring frost on population growth rate. Our results for a perennial forest herb show that analyses using regionally aggregated data often fail to identify the effects of climate on population dynamics. This emphasizes the importance of using organism-relevant estimates of climate when examining effects on individual performance and population dynamics, as well as when modeling species distributions. For sessile organisms that experience the environment over small spatial scales, this will require climate data at high spatial resolutions.

Exploring the impact of data curation criteria on the observed geographical distribution of mosses.

Biodiversity data records contain inaccuracies and biases. To overcome this limitation and establish robust geographic patterns, ecologists often curate records keeping those that are most suitable for their analyses. Yet, this choice is not straightforward and the outcome of the analysis may vary due to a trade-off between data quality and volume. This problem is particularly recurrent for less-studied groups with patchy sampling effort. The latitudinal pattern of mosses richness remains inconsistent across studies and these may emerge purely from sampling artefacts. Our main objective here is to assess the effect of different curation criteria on this spatial pattern in the Temperate Northern Hemisphere (above 20° latitude). We contrasted the geographical distribution of moss species records and the latitude-species richness relation obtained under different data curation scenarios. These scenarios comprehend five sources of taxonomical standardisations and eight data cleaning filters. The analyses are based on the selection of well-surveyed cells at 100 km cell resolution. The application of some 'data curation scenarios' severely affects the number of records selected for analysis and substantially changes the proportion of richness per cell. The sensitivity to data curation becomes detectable at regional and at the cell scales showing a large shift in the latitudinal richness peak in Europe, from 60° N to 45° N latitude, when only preserved specimens are selected and duplicates based on date of collection and coordinates are excluded. Our results stress the importance of justifying the criteria used for filtering biodiversity data retrieved from biodiversity databases to avoid detecting misleading patterns. Curating records under particular criteria compromises the information in some areas displaying different spatial information of mosses. This problem can be ameliorated if data filtering is combined with identifying well-surveyed cells, render relatively constant results under different combinations of filtering even for less well-known groups such as mosses.

Combining camera trap surveys and IUCN range maps to improve knowledge of species distributions.

Reliable maps of species distributions are fundamental for biodiversity research and conservation. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) range maps are widely recognized as authoritative representations of species' geographic limits, yet they might not always align with actual occurrence data. In recent area of habitat (AOH) maps, areas that are not habitat have been removed from IUCN ranges to reduce commission errors, but their concordance with actual species occurrence also remains untested. We tested concordance between occurrences recorded in camera trap surveys and predicted occurrences from the IUCN and AOH maps for 510 medium- to large-bodied mammalian species in 80 camera trap sampling areas. Across all areas, cameras detected only 39% of species expected to occur based on IUCN ranges and AOH maps; 85% of the IUCN only mismatches occurred within 200 km of range edges. Only 4% of species occurrences were detected by cameras outside IUCN ranges. The probability of mismatches between cameras and the IUCN range was significantly higher for smaller-bodied mammals and habitat specialists in the Neotropics and Indomalaya and in areas with shorter canopy forests. Our findings suggest that range and AOH maps rarely underrepresent areas where species occur, but they may more often overrepresent ranges by including areas where a species may be absent, particularly at range edges. We suggest that combining range maps with data from ground-based biodiversity sensors, such as camera traps, provides a richer knowledge base for conservation mapping and planning.

Combinación de censos con fototrampas y mapas de extensión de la UICN para incrementar el conocimiento sobre la distribución de las especies Resumen Los mapas confiables de la distribución de las especies son fundamentales para la investigación y conservación de la biodiversidad. Los mapas de distribución de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) están reconocidos como representaciones de autoridad de los límites geográficos de las especies, aunque no siempre se alinean con los datos actuales de su presencia. En los mapas recientes de área de hábitat (ADH), las áreas que no son hábitat han sido eliminadas de la distribución de la UICN para reducir los errores de comisión, pero su concordancia con la presencia actual de las especies tampoco ha sido analizada. Analizamos la concordancia entre la presencia registrada por los censos de fototrampas y pronosticamos la presencia a partir de los mapas de la UICN y de ADH de 510 especies de mamíferos de talla mediana a grande en 80 áreas de muestreo de fototrampas. Las cámaras detectaron sólo el 39% de las especies esperadas con base en la distribución de la UICN y los mapas de ADH en todas las áreas; el 85% de las disparidades con la UICN ocurrieron dentro de los 200 km a partir del borde de la distribución. Sólo el 4% de la presencia de las especies fue detectada por las cámaras ubicadas fuera de la distribución de la UICN. La probabilidad de disparidad entre las cámaras y la UICN fue significativamente mayor para los mamíferos de talla pequeña y para los especialistas de hábitat en las regiones Neotropical e Indomalaya y en áreas con doseles forestales más bajos. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que los mapas de distribución y ADH pocas veces subrepresentan las áreas con presencia de las especies, pero con frecuencia pueden sobrerrepresentar la distribución al incluir áreas en donde las especies pueden estar ausentes, en particular los bordes de la distribución. Sugerimos que la combinación de los mapas de distribución con los sensores de biodiversidad en tierra, como las fototrampas, proporciona una base más rica de conocimiento para el mapeo y la planeación de la conservación.

Divergent patterns of zooplankton connectivity in the epipelagic and mesopelagic zones of the eastern North Pacific.

Due to historical under-sampling of the deep ocean, the distributional ranges of mesopelagic zooplankton are not well documented, leading to uncertainty about the mechanisms that shape midwater zooplankton community composition. Using a combination of DNA metabarcoding (18S-V4 and mtCOI) and trait-based analysis, we characterized zooplankton diversity and community composition in the upper 1000 m of the northeast Pacific Ocean. We tested whether the North Pacific Transition Zone is a biogeographic boundary region for mesopelagic zooplankton. We also tested whether zooplankton taxa occupying different vertical habitats and exhibiting different ecological traits differed in the ranges of temperature, Chl-a, and dissolved oxygen conditions inhabited. The depth of the maximum taxonomic richness deepened with increasing latitude in the North Pacific. Community similarity in the mesopelagic zone also increased in comparison with the epipelagic zone, and no evidence was found for a biogeographic boundary between previously delineated mesopelagic biogeochemical provinces. Epipelagic zooplankton exhibited broader temperature and Chl-a ranges than mesopelagic taxa. Within the epipelagic, taxa with broader temperature and Chl-a ranges also had broader distributional ranges. However, mesopelagic taxa were distributed across wider dissolved oxygen ranges, and within the mesopelagic, only oxygen ranges covaried with distributional ranges. Environmental and distributional ranges also varied among traits, both for epipelagic taxa and mesopelagic taxa. The strongest differences in both environmental and distributional ranges were observed for taxa with or without diel vertical migration behavior. Our results suggest that species traits can influence the differential effects of physical dispersal and environmental selection in shaping biogeographic distributions.

Implications for the conservation of deep-water corals in the face of multiple stressors: A case study from the New Zealand region.

The waters around New Zealand are a global hotspot of biodiversity for deep-water corals; approximately one sixth of the known deep-water coral species of the world have been recorded in the region. Deep-water corals are vulnerable to climate-related stressors and from the damaging effects of commercial fisheries. Current protection measures do not account for the vulnerability of deep-water corals to future climatic conditions, which are predicted to alter the distribution of suitable habitat for them. Using recently developed habitat suitability models for 12 taxa of deep-water corals fitted to current and future seafloor environmental conditions (under different future climatic conditions: SSP2 - 4.5 and SSP3 - 7.0) we explore possible levels of spatial protection using the decision-support tool Zonation. Specifically, we assess the impact of bottom trawling on predictions of current distributions of deep-water corals, and then assess the effectiveness of possible protection for deep-water corals, while accounting for habitat refugia under future climatic conditions. The cumulative impact of bottom trawling was predicted to impact all taxa, but particularly the reef-forming corals. Core areas of suitable habitat were predicted to decrease under future climatic conditions for many taxa. We found that designing protection using current day predictions alone, having accounted for the impacts of historic fishing impacts, was unlikely to provide adequate conservation for deep water-corals under future climate change. Accounting for future distributions in spatial planning identified areas which may provide climate refugia whilst still providing efficient protection for current distributions. These gains in conservation value may be particularly important given the predicted reduction in suitable habitat for deep-water corals due to bottom fishing and climate change. Finally, the possible impact that protection measures may have on deep-water fisheries was assessed using a measure of current fishing value (kg km-2 fish) and future fishing value (predicted under future climate change scenarios).

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants.

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

Sustained mangrove reproduction despite major turnover in pollinator community composition at expanding range edge.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: How well plants reproduce near their geographic range edge can determine whether distributions will shift in response to changing climate. Reproduction at the range edge can be limiting if pollinator scarcity leads to pollen limitation, or if abiotic stressors affect allocation to reproduction. For many animal-pollinated plants with expanding ranges, the mechanisms by which they have overcome these barriers are poorly understood. METHODS: In this study, we examined plant-pollinator interactions hypothesized to impact reproduction of the black mangrove, Avicennia germinans, which is expanding northward in coastal Florida, USA. We monitored insects visiting A. germinans populations varying in proximity to the geographic range edge, measured the pollen loads of the most common insect taxa and pollen receipt by A. germinans stigmas, and quantified flower and propagule production. KEY RESULTS: We found that despite an 84 % decline in median floral visits by insects at northernmost versus southernmost sites, range-edge pollen receipt remained high. Notably, local floral visitor assemblages exhibited substantial turnover along the study's latitudinal gradient, with large-bodied bees and hover flies increasingly common at northern sites. We also observed elevated flower production in northern populations and higher per capita reproductive output at the range edge. Furthermore, mean propagule mass in northern populations was 18 % larger than that from the southernmost populations. CONCLUSIONS: These findings reveal no erosion of fecundity in A. germinans populations at range limits, allowing rapid expansion of mangrove cover in the region. These results also illustrate that substantial turnover in the assemblage of flower-visiting insects can occur at an expanding range edge without altering pollen receipt.

A Case for the "Competitive Exclusion-Tolerance Rule" as a General Cause of Species Turnover along Environmental Gradients.

AbstractClosely related, ecologically similar species often segregate their distributions along environmental gradients of time, space, and resources, but previous research suggests diverse underlying causes. Here, we review reciprocal removal studies in nature that experimentally test the role of interactions among species in determining their turnover along environmental gradients. We find consistent evidence for asymmetric exclusion coupled with differences in environmental tolerance causing the segregation of species pairs, where a dominant species excludes a subordinate from benign regions of the gradient but is unable to tolerate challenging regions to which the subordinate species is adapted. Subordinate species were consistently smaller and performed better in regions of the gradient typically occupied by the dominant species compared with their native distribution. These results extend previous ideas contrasting competitive ability with adaptation to abiotic stress to include a broader diversity of species interactions (intraguild predation, reproductive interference) and environmental gradients, including gradients of biotic challenge. Collectively, these findings suggest that adaptation to environmental challenge compromises performance in antagonistic interactions with ecologically similar species. The consistency of this pattern across diverse organisms, environments, and biomes suggests generalizable processes structuring the segregation of ecologically similar species along disparate environmental gradients, a phenomenon that we propose should be named the competitive exclusion-tolerance rule.