Sudden gains in routine clinical care: application of a permutation test for trauma-focused cognitive behavioural therapy.

Background: Sudden gains, defined as large and stable improvements of psychopathological symptoms, are a ubiquitous phenomenon in psychotherapy. They have been shown to occur across several clinical contexts and to be associated with better short-term and long-term treatment outcome. However, the approach of sudden gains has been criticized for its tautological character: sudden gains are included in the computation of treatment outcomes, ultimately resulting in a circular conclusion. Furthermore, some authors criticize sudden gains as merely being random fluctuations.Objective: Use of efficient methods to evaluate whether the amount of sudden gains in a given sample lies above chance level.Method: We used permutation tests in a sample of 85 patients with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) treated with trauma-focused cognitive behaviour therapy in routine clinical care. Scores of self-reported PTSD symptom severity were permuted 10.000 times within sessions and between participants to receive a random distribution.Results: Altogether, 18 participants showed a total of 24 sudden gains within the first 20 sessions. The permutation test yielded that the frequency of sudden gains was not beyond chance level. No significant predictors of sudden gains were identified and sudden gains in general were not predictive of treatment outcome. However, subjects with early sudden gains had a significantly lower symptom severity after treatment.Conclusions: Our data suggest that a significant proportion of sudden gains are due to chance. Further research is needed on the differential effects of early and late sudden gains.

Treatment-related sudden gains exhibit clinical significance when their manifestation is above chance level.We used permutation tests to examine their occurrence in trauma-focused cognitive behaviour therapy as applied in a naturalistic treatment setting.The occurrence of sudden gains in general was not significantly higher than chance, yet early sudden gains were associated with improved treatment outcome.

Sudden gains in PTSD symptoms and social functioning in cognitive processing therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder.

OBJECTIVE: Sudden gains (SGs) are rapid symptom improvements between two consecutive therapy sessions that predict treatment outcomes. This study investigated SGs in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, interpersonal relationship functioning, and social role functioning in Cognitive Processing Therapy (CPT). METHOD: Participants were 121 patients and 81 therapists involved in a parent randomized controlled hybrid implementation-effectiveness trial of CPT. Descriptive analyses examined the frequency and timing of different forms of SGs. Multilevel modeling examined the impact of the three SGs on outcomes. RESULTS: PTSD SGs occurred more often and at different sessions than SGs in facets of social functioning. Most individuals experienced only one form of SG and there were no significant clinical or demographic differences in those who had PTSD only SGs, social functioning only SGs, or both SGs. PTSD SGs and interpersonal relationship functioning SGs both predicted changes in PTSD symptoms and interpersonal difficulties over time, but not changes in social role functioning. SGs in social role functioning predicted all three forms of outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that there are multiple forms of SGs in CPT beyond primary symptom changes that are predictive of patient outcomes. Clinicians should highlight various SGs that patients experience to further enhance outcomes.

Using machine learning to predict sudden gains in intensive treatment for PTSD.

Sudden gains have been found in PTSD treatment across samples and treatment modality. Sudden gains have consistently predicted better treatment response, illustrating clear clinical implications, though attempts to identify predictors of sudden gains have produced inconsistent findings. To date, sudden gains have not been examined in intensive PTSD treatment programs (ITPs). This study explored the occurrence of sudden gains in a 3-week and 2-week ITP (n = 465 and n = 235), evaluated the effect of sudden gains on post-treatment and follow-up PTSD severity while controlling for overall change, and used three machine learning algorithms to assess our ability to predict sudden gains. We found 31% and 19% of our respective samples experienced a sudden gain during the ITP. In both ITPs, sudden gain status predicted greater PTSD symptom improvement at post-treatment (t2 W=-8.57, t3 W=-14.86, p < .001) and at 3-month follow-up (t2 W=-3.82, t3 W=-5.32, p < .001). However, the effect for follow-up was no longer significant after controlling for total symptom reduction across the ITP (t2 W=-1.59, t3 W=-0.32, p > .05). Our ability to predict sudden gains was poor (AUC <.7) across all three machine learning algorithms. These findings demonstrate that sudden gains can be detected in intensive treatment for PTSD, though their implications for treatment outcomes may be limited. Moreover, despite the use of three machine-learning methods across two fairly large clinical samples, we were still unable to identify variables that accurately predict whether an individual will experience a sudden gain during treatment. Implications for clinical application of these findings and for future studies are discussed.

Sudden gains in face-to-face and internet-based cognitive therapy for social anxiety disorder.

Sudden gains are large and stable decreases in clinical symptoms between consecutive therapy sessions. This work examined the frequency and possible determinants of sudden gains in Cognitive Therapy for Social Anxiety Disorder, comparing face-to-face (CT) and internet-based (iCT) formats of treatment delivery. Data from 99 participants from a randomised controlled trial were analysed. The frequency of sudden gains was high: 64% and 51% of participants experienced a sudden gain in CT and iCT respectively. Having a sudden gain was associated with lower social anxiety symptoms at posttreatment and follow-up. There was evidence of reductions in negative social cognitions and self-focused attention immediately prior to the sudden gain, contrasting with no prior reductions in depression symptoms. Ratings of session videotapes in CT showed that clients' statements indicated greater generalised learning in sessions immediately prior to gains, compared to control sessions. This may suggest a role for generalised learning in facilitating these large symptom reductions. There were no significant differences in results between the CT and iCT treatment formats, suggesting that the therapy content appears to play a more important role in determining participants' large symptom improvements than the medium of treatment delivery.

Intraindividual variability and emotional change as predictors of sudden gains in imagery rescripting and EMDR for PTSD in adult survivors of childhood abuse.

Sudden gains, defined as large and stable improvements in symptom severity during psychological treatment, have consistently been found to be associated with better outcomes across treatments and diagnoses. Yet, insights on coherent predictors of sudden gains and on emotional changes around sudden gains in post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are lacking. We aimed at replicating a measure of intraindividual variability as a predictor for sudden gains and testing its independence from change during treatment. Furthermore, we expected changes in emotions of guilt, shame and disgust prior to sudden gains to predict sudden gains. Data from a pre-registered randomized controlled trial (RCT) of eye-movement desensitization and reprocessing (emdr) and Imagery Rescripting (ImRs) for PTSD in 155 adult survivors of childhood abuse were used. Intraindividual variability of PTSD symptoms in both treatments did not predict sudden gains status and was not independent of change during treatment. In the EMDR condition, levels of shame during treatment predicted sudden gains and shame decreased shortly before a sudden gain in both treatments. Reductions in all emotions during sudden gains were significantly higher for participants with sudden gains than for comparable intervals in non-sudden gainers. Our findings do not support the predictive validity of intraindividual variability for sudden gains. The decrease of guilt, shame and disgust during sudden gains warrants further research on their role as a mechanism of treatment change for PTSD.

Sudden gains and deteriorations: Modeling the impact across outcomes with university counseling center clients.

OBJECTIVE: This study examines the longitudinal impact of sudden gains/deteriorations across the outcomes associated with the phase model. METHOD: In a sample of 16,657 clients who completed the Behavioral Health Measure-20, we identified sudden gains/deteriorations and employed multilevel piecewise analyses to assess their impact on subsequent treatment phases. RESULTS: We found that: (1) Following a sudden gain in the well-being outcome, the mean-level for the symptom outcome increased (meaning symptoms improved), and the rate of change decreased, (2) Following a sudden gain in the symptom outcome, the mean-level for the life functioning outcome increased, (3) Following a sudden deterioration in the well-being outcome, the mean-level and rate of change for the symptom outcome decreased, and (4) Following a sudden deterioration in the symptom outcome, the mean-level for the life functioning outcome decreased. CONCLUSIONS: These findings reveal that sudden gains/deteriorations function and occur at different rates across phases of change in psychotherapy.

Sudden gains and treatment outcomes among depressed individuals in a partial hospitalization programme.

Sudden gains commonly occur among patients receiving psychotherapy for depression and have been found to consistently predict better treatment outcomes. However, the majority of prior research has examined sudden gains primarily in weekly or biweekly treatment settings. Individuals were divided into two groups: those who experienced at least one sudden gain and those who did not. Rates of sudden gain occurrence, pretreatment factors and posttreatment outcomes were examined between the two groups. Over 60% of this sample experienced at least one sudden gain, the majority of which occurred during the first 3 days of treatment. Sudden gains were associated with significantly lower baseline depression and anxiety severity. Patients who experienced sudden gains reported significantly greater improvement in depressive and anxiety symptoms, coping skills, functioning, positive mental health and well-being at treatment termination. This study was conducted in a single location with a relatively homogeneous sample. Due to a lack of follow-up data, we were unable to determine if treatment outcomes were sustained after treatment termination. The assessment timeline of the depressive symptoms differs between baseline and daily scales, which may have affected the number of observed sudden gains after the initial treatment day. The proportion of sudden gains in this study is higher than those found in outpatient settings, demonstrating that this phenomenon may commonly occur among depressed patients in acute treatment. These results suggest that the mechanisms by which sudden gains occur may be reinforced by daily, intensive treatment.

Two kinds of sudden gains in brief psychotherapy.

OBJECTIVE: Sudden gains (SGs) are known to predispose to good outcome in psychotherapy, especially in brief treatment. However, some SGs may be illusory, in the sense that they arise from measurement error in the context of gradual change. We examined change before, during, and after SGs that were either true or illusory. METHOD: In a sample of 1,867 university students treated with brief psychotherapy, we simulated session data as gradually changing score sequences, identified artifactual SGs therein, and utilized the simulated data to categorize actual participant SGs as either illusory or true. RESULTS: During treatment, participants with illusory SGs (N = 42) improved as much as did participants with true SGs (N = 67). Moreover, late in treatment participants with SGs and their matched controls improved at similar rates. True SGs were preceded by more distress and were larger than illusory SGs. Among participants with true SGs, very large SGs were more likely to reverse later in treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Relatively small SGs may reflect measurement error. When brief psychotherapy patients deteriorate early in treatment but then suddenly experience substantial improvement, little further change is to be expected.

Patterns of alliance development in cognitive behavioral therapy versus attention bias modification for social anxiety disorder: Sawtooth patterns and sudden gains.

OBJECTIVES: We examined patterns in alliance development in cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for social anxiety disorder (SAD) compared to attention bias modification (ABM). We focused on the occurrence of sawtooth patterns (increases within- and decreases between-sessions) and sudden gains and their association with outcome. METHODS: Clients received CBT (n = 33) or ABM (n = 17). Client-rated alliance was measured before and after each session. Self-reported and clinician-rated anxiety were measured weekly and monthly, respectively. RESULTS: The alliance increased in CBT in a sawtooth pattern and did not change in ABM. When examining individual clients, sawtooths were more common in CBT (61% clients) than in ABM (6%) and predicted worse outcome in CBT. Sudden gains were equally frequent (CBT, 18%; ABM, 18%) and did not predict outcome. CONCLUSION: The alliance in CBT is dynamic and important for outcome. Sawtooths are common in CBT and may mark worse outcome.

Using machine-learning to predict sudden gains in treatment for major depressive disorder.

OBJECTIVE: Sudden gains during psychotherapy have been found to consistently predict treatment outcome but evidence on predictors of sudden gains has been equivocal. To address this gap, the present study utilized three machine learning algorithms to predict sudden gains during treatment for major depressive disorder. METHOD: We examined predictors of sudden gains in two large samples of individuals receiving treatment in a partial hospital setting (n = 726 and n = 788; total N = 1514). Predictors included age, gender, marital status, education, employment status, previous hospitalization, comorbid diagnoses, and pretreatment measures of depressive and generalized anxiety symptoms. We used three machine learning models: a Random Forest model, a Random Forest model with an adaptive boosting meta-algorithm, and a Support Vector Machine model. RESULTS: In both samples, sudden gains were identified and found to significantly predict outcome. However, none of the machine learning algorithms was able to identify robust predictors of sudden gains. Thus, even though some models achieved fair prediction of sudden gains in the training subset, prediction in the test subset was poor. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the use of a large sample and three machine-learning models, we were unable to identify robust demographic and pretreatment clinical predictors of sudden gains. Implications for clinical decision making and future studies are discussed.

Therapy Processes Associated With Sudden Gains in Cognitive Therapy for Depression: Exploring Therapeutic Changes in the Sessions Surrounding the Gains.

Background: The frequency and clinical impact of Sudden Gains-large symptom improvements during a single between-session interval-in psychotherapy for depression have been well established. However, there have been relatively few efforts to identify the processes that lead to sudden gains. Aim: To explore therapy processes associated with sudden gains in cognitive therapy for depression by examining changes in the sessions surrounding the gains, and the session preceding the gain in particular. Methods: Using ratings of video-recordings (n = 36), we assessed the content, frequency and magnitude of within-session cognitive-, behavioral-, and interpersonal change, as well as the quality of the therapeutic alliance in the session prior to the gain (pre-gain session), the session after the gain (post-gain session) and a control session. After that, we contrasted scores in the pre-gain session with those in the control session. In addition, we examined changes that occurred between the pre- and post-gain session (between-session changes) and explored patients' attributions of change. Results: Although not statistically significant, within-session changes were more frequent and stronger in the pre-gain session compared to the control session. The largest difference between the pre-gain and control session was found in the behavioral domain, and reached the level of trend-significance. There were more, and more impactful between-session changes in the interval during which the gain occurred as compared to a control interval. Exploratory analysis of attributions of change revealed eight subcategories, all corresponding with the cognitive-, behavioral- and interpersonal- domain. The quality of the therapeutic alliance was high and almost identical in all sessions. Conclusion: In spite of its small sample size, our study provides relevant descriptive information about potential precipitants of, themes related to, and attributions given for sudden gains. Furthermore, our study provides clear suggestions for future research. A better understanding of session content in the sessions surrounding sudden gains may provide insight into the mechanisms of change in psychotherapy, hereby suggesting treatment-enhancing strategies. We encourage researchers to conduct research that could clarify the nature of these mechanisms, and believe the methods used in this study could serve as a framework for further work in this area.

A Revised Theory of Sudden Gains in Psychological Treatments.

Sudden gains were first defined and quantified by Tang and DeRubeis (1999) and were found to predict treatment outcome in cognitive therapy for depression. Since that seminal paper, over 100 examinations of sudden gains have been published and sudden gains have been found to be ubiquitous in psychological treatments and to consistently predict better treatment outcomes across a multitude of disorders and contexts (see Shalom & Aderka, 2020 for a review). The research on sudden gains has seen considerable growth over the past 20 years. However, the theory behind sudden gains (which addresses processes leading to sudden gains, and processes resulting from sudden gains) has never been revised. Based on the empirical research which has accrued over the last 20 years, we present an empirically-based revision of the theory of sudden gains. The revised theory addresses both predictors of sudden gains and processes that may lead to sudden gains, as well as the consequences of sudden gains and the processes by which sudden gains can affect outcome. We also present a number of hypotheses that can be derived from the theory as well as the status of empirical evidence supporting these hypotheses. Research and clinical implications are discussed.

Working with emotion predicts sudden gains during experiential therapy for depression.

Objective: This study involves the first attempt to identify sudden gains in a sample of clients undergoing experiential therapy for depression while also investigating client and therapist change processes related to sudden gains.Method: Pre- and post-session Beck Depression Inventory, short form (BDI-SF) questionnaires were used to identify sudden gains and differentiate between in-session and between-session symptom changes in thirty-six client-therapist dyads. Archival videotape data of a sub-sample were coded using the Experiencing Scale, Classification of Affective Meaning States, and the Coding System for Therapist Focus.Results: The study revealed that 63.9% of clients experienced a sudden gain and the bulk of the total mean symptom decrease (74.9%) was found to occur within the session preceding the sudden gain. During this critical session, clients were more likely to display deepened experiencing (p < .01, η2 = .34), clients were more likely to express "primary adaptive emotions" (p < .05, r = .38), and therapists were found to be more likely to focus on unmet client needs (p < .01, d = .75).Conclusion: The majority of the sudden gain change occurs within session in experiential therapy, and primary adaptive emotions as well as addressing unmet needs are possible processes of sudden gains.

Predicting outcomes and sudden gains from initial in-session interactions during remote cognitive-behavioural therapy for severe health anxiety.

There has been a dramatic increase in remote psychotherapy since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. There is also expected to be an increase in mental health problems in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. An increase in severe health anxiety (SHA) is particularly anticipated, for which cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) is a frontline treatment. However, it is unclear what interaction types are associated with outcome-improvement in remote-CBT (rCBT) for SHA. This study aimed to identify interaction types that predict outcomes and sudden gains in rCBT for SHA using initial therapy session content. Forty-eight participants in rCBT for SHA had interactions at their first sessions categorized and rated in terms of patient activation: an individual's confidence and ability to manage their health. Multilevel modelling assessed whether early interaction types predicted session-by-session wellbeing. For participants experiencing sudden gains (n = 12) interactions at the session directly prior to the gain were similarly categorized and rated. The scores were then compared with ratings for the preceding session. A smaller proportion of early sessions was taken up with problem descriptions among those with greater outcome improvements. There was also a significant reduction in the proportion of the session spent describing problems in the session directly prior to a sudden gain, as compared with the previous session. Conversely, clients with better outcomes made more positive evaluations of themselves and therapy, noticed more positive changes and made more contributions to structuring interactions at initial sessions. Specific early interaction types predict session-by-session outcomes and precede sudden gains in rCBT for SHA.

Sudden Gains in Internet-Based Cognitive Behavior Therapy for Body Dysmorphic Disorder.

Sudden gains have been associated with better short- and long-term treatment outcomes in a number of psychiatric disorders. However, no studies to date have evaluated sudden gains in body dysmorphic disorder (BDD). We used data from a previous randomized controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of an Internet-based cognitive-behavior treatment (CBT) for BDD. The sample consisted of 47 adults diagnosed with BDD. We compared the treatment outcomes of sudden gainers vs. gradual gainers (i.e., treatment responders with no sudden gains) and non-sudden gainers (i.e., gradual gainers plus nonresponders) at posttreatment and 3, 12, and 24 months after the end of the treatment. Twelve (25.5%) participants experienced a sudden gain. Compared to non-sudden gainers and to gradual gainers, sudden gainers showed significantly larger improvements on the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale modified for BDD at posttreatment (g = 1.23 and g = .91, respectively), and at 3-month (g = 1.23 and g = 1.00, respectively), 12-month (g = 1.12 and g = .91, respectively), and 24-month follow-up (g = 1.11 and g = .97, respectively). This translated into higher rates of treatment responders and remitters in the sudden gainers across all time points. The occurrence of sudden gains in Internet-based CBT for BDD is associated with favorable short- and long-term treatment outcomes. This suggests that a sudden improvement during the treatment could be a marker of good prognosis, while non-sudden-including gradual-gainers are more likely to need continued support or booster sessions. Early identification of patients who are not progressing as expected and subsequent tailoring of the delivered intervention has the potential to improve treatment outcomes in this group.

A meta-analysis of sudden gains in psychotherapy: Outcome and moderators.

Sudden gains have been shown to be a common phenomenon and an important predictor of outcome in psychotherapy (Tang & DeRubeis, 1999). The present meta-analysis examined the growing literature on sudden gains in psychotherapy, their effects on outcome, and moderators of these effects. We searched PsycINFO, PubMed, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, Scholar and Web of Science databases for articles between January 1st 1999 and May 31st 2019 and included 50 studies (n = 6355) in the meta-analysis. Sudden gains were found to significantly predict outcome at post-treatment (g = 0.68) and follow up (g = 0.61) above and beyond treatments, disorders and settings. Studies using Tang and DeRubies's (1999) criteria for identification of sudden gains had smaller effect sizes compared to studies using altered criteria. Pretreatment severity levels did not significantly predict the effects of sudden gains and neither did treatment setting (randomized controlled trials vs. naturalistic settings). Finally, number of sessions and sudden gains' reversal rates were both negatively associated with the effect sizes of sudden gains. These findings suggest that sudden gains are a ubiquitous phenomenon in psychotherapy but their effects may be moderated by a number of factors. Research and clinical implications are discussed.

The Roles of Early Response and Sudden Gains on Depression Outcomes: Findings From a Randomized Controlled Trial of Behavioral Activation in Goa, India.

The Healthy Activity Program (HAP), a brief, lay-counselor-delivered, behavioral activation psychological treatment, was found to be effective in reducing depressive symptoms among primary care attendees in India. We now examine whether early response predicts depression (PHQ-9) outcomes at the primary endpoint of 3 months and sustained recovery at 12 months after enrollment and the extent to which this effect is influenced by sudden gains in the context of the larger randomized controlled trial. HAP participants (N = 245) who exhibited an early response (150 of 245 or 61.2%), as defined by a 50% reduction in depressive symptoms from baseline to Session 3, had lower depressive symptom scores than those who did not at 3 months (5.29 vs. 10.75, F = 33.21, p < .001) and at 12 months (6.56 vs. 11.02, F = 21.84, p < .001). Further exploratory analyses suggested that this advantage was largely confined to the subset of early responders who also showed sudden gains (87 of 150).

Do sudden gains predict treatment outcome in social anxiety disorder? Findings from two randomized controlled trials.

OBJECTIVE: Sudden gains (SGs) have been found to occur during randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for social anxiety disorder (SAD). Evidence is mixed whether SGs relate to treatment outcome in SAD. We examined SGs in two RCTs for SAD. METHOD: Study 1 (N = 68) examined SGs in individual cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), and Study 2 (N = 100) compared SGs in group CBT and Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR). Weekly ratings of social anxiety were used to calculate SGs. The Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale-Self-Report and the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale were completed at pretreatment, posttreatment, and follow-up to assess outcome. RESULTS: In Study 1, 17.6% of participants experienced a SG. Participants with SGs started and ended treatment with lower social anxiety. SGs were not associated with greater decreases in social anxiety from pre-to posttreatment or 12-month follow-up. In Study 2, SGs occurred in 27% of participants and at comparable rates in MBSR and group CBT. SGs were not associated with changes in social anxiety during treatment in either condition. CONCLUSION: SGs occurred during treatment for SAD. In both RCTs, participants improved regardless of experiencing a SG, suggesting that SGs are not predictive of greater improvement during treatment for SAD.

An exploratory study of patients' sudden losses during outpatient CBT and therapists' experience of difficulties.

OBJECTIVE: Patients' sudden deterioration in symptomatology, also called sudden losses, is a rarely explored phenomenon. METHOD: Psychological distress of 1,763 patients treated by 140 therapists was monitored after every therapy session. Patient-reported outcome measures and patients' therapy satisfaction was assessed. Therapists rated their experience of difficulties for every patient repeatedly over the course of therapy. RESULTS: More than one-quarter of patients (26.5%) experienced at least one sudden loss during therapy. Patients with sudden losses did not differ significantly in psychotherapy outcome and therapy satisfaction from patients without sudden shifts. Therapists did not experience professional self-doubt more often when working with sudden loss patients. CONCLUSION: Sudden losses were not necessarily harmful for the outcome of psychotherapy and patients' global therapy satisfaction. The results suggest that sudden losses can be compensated over the course of treatment.

Sudden Gains: How Important Are They During Exposure and Response Prevention for Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder?

Symptom reduction over the course of cognitive-behavioral therapy is not always distributed evenly across sessions. Some individuals experience a sudden gain, defined as a large, rapid, and stable decrease in symptoms during treatment. Although research documents a link between sudden gains and treatment for depression and anxiety, findings in the context of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) treatment are mixed. The present study investigated the relationship between sudden gains and treatment outcome in 44 adults with OCD and addressed limitations of previous studies by measuring OCD symptoms dimensionally and comparing individuals who experience sudden gains to those who experience gradual gains of similar magnitude. Sudden gains were observed among 27% of participants, with highest rates among individuals with primary contamination symptoms. Participants who experienced a sudden gain had greater OCD symptom reductions at posttreatment (but not at follow-up), and this difference did not persist after controlling for gain magnitude. Thus, the importance of sudden gains during OCD treatment may be limited. Findings are discussed in light of inhibitory learning models of cognitive-behavioral therapy.