Deep neural network-based prediction of tsunami wave attenuation by mangrove forests.

The goal of this research is to develop a model employing deep neural networks (DNNs) to predict the effectiveness of mangrove forests in attenuating the impact of tsunami waves. The dataset for the DNN model is obtained by simulating tsunami wave attenuation using the Boussinesq model with a staggered grid approximation. The Boussinesq model for wave attenuation is validated using laboratory experiments exhibiting a mean absolute error (MAE) ranging from 0.003 to 0.01. We employ over 40,000 data points generated from the Boussinesq numerical simulations to train the DNN. Efforts are made to optimize hyperparameters and determine the neural network architecture to attain optimal performance during the training process. The prediction results of the DNN model exhibit a coefficient of determination (R2 ) of 0.99560, an MAE of 0.00118, a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.00151, and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3 %. When comparing the DNN model with three alternative machine learning models- support vector regression (SVR), multiple linear regression (MLR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)- the performance of DNN is superior to that of SVR and MLR, but it is similar to XGBoost.•High-accuracy DNN models require hyperparameter optimization and neural network architecture selection.•The error of DNN models in predicting the attenuation of tsunami waves by mangrove forests is less than 3 %.•DNN can serve as an alternate predictive model to empirical formulas or classical numerical models.

Adolescents' Tsunami Exposure and Mental Health Consequences: Protective Role of Cultural Coping Strategies.

There is a knowledge gap regarding the link between disaster exposure and adolescent mental health problems in developing countries. This study examines the case of Sri Lanka to investigate (a) the immediate and long-term mental health impact of the 2004 tsunami disaster on adolescents and (b) the potential moderating effects of unique cultural and family practices that prevail in Sri Lanka. This study used a random sample of 160 adolescents (ages 12-19) and their mothers who were exposed to the tsunami disaster while living in a southern Sri Lankan village and provided prospective data immediately after the disaster (2005) and three years later (2008). A cross-culturally validated instrument assessed adolescent-mother dyads' tsunami exposure, stressful loss, family cultural rituals and familism, and adolescent mental health. Structural equation modeling analysis showed that exposure and perceptions of tsunami-induced stressful experiences were associated with early and later mental health problems in adolescents. In addition, this study found that unique cultural practices and familism moderated the link between adolescent tsunami exposure, stressful experiences, and levels of PTSD and depressive symptoms. The findings of this study could be utilized to develop prevention and intervention programs that are contextually and culturally valid and empirically supported, which would be more effective for trauma-exposed adolescents in developing countries.

Disaster Preparedness and Safety Curriculum for Early Childhood Education in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Indonesia is located within the Asia-Pacific Ring of Fire, so natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floods, and landslides are common. Preparedness is essential to prevent many casualties due to various disasters. PROBLEM: The Aceh, Indonesia earthquake and tsunami in 2004 was one of the most devastating disasters since the 1990s. Some of the victims were children. This is because there was no pattern of preparedness in dealing with disasters when the incident took place; even the word tsunami was not familiar in Indonesia at that time. Thus, the preparation of a disaster preparedness and safety curriculum began to be implemented in Indonesia after the Aceh earthquake and tsunami. CONCLUSION: The disaster preparedness and safety curriculum in early childhood education is developed in accordance with the potential and characteristics of the school area. Basic disaster material provided concepts, characteristics and threats, maps, ways of overcoming, and disaster preparedness and security. Facilities and infrastructure supporting disaster preparedness learning used disaster puzzles, disaster posters, songs about disasters, and prayers asking God for help to be protected from disasters.

Groundwater for drinking and industrial purposes: A study of water stability and human health risk assessment from black sand mineral rich coastal region of Kerala, India.

Tempero-spatial analysis of groundwater to disseminate the level of drinking water quality and industrial suitability to meet the developmental requirement of a region is a significant area of research. Accordingly, groundwater quality and geochemical interactions prevailed in a black sand mineral rich coastal village is systematically presented in appraisal of drinking and industrial uses for economic engineering purposes. The study area focused is Alappad village, Kollam, Kerala, India has numerous ecological features in a sustainable perspective. The region is unique with placer deposits where an alluvial soil aquifer-saline water-freshwater interaction occurs. This dynamics decides the pertinent hydro geochemistry, potable and designated uses of ground water in season wise. Coastal area is hereby presented based on water quality parameters predicted with the health risk assessment model with a view on human health and cancer risk due to ions (Pb, Ni, Cu, Ba, Fe, Al, Mn, Zn) in groundwater.. To ascertain industrial usage, ground water is evaluated by Langelier saturation index (LSI), Ryznar stability index (RSI), Aggressive index (AI), Larson-Skold index (LS) and Puckorius scaling index (PSI) and inferences are complemented. Chemical weathering and evaporation processes are the natural factors controlling hydrochemistry of this aquifer. This complex coastal system has Nemerow pollution index (NPI) of moderate pollution for total dissolved ions of Fe and lesser for Cu, and Cr present in groundwater. LSI indicates, water is scale forming but non corrosive (46% in PRM, 20% in MON and 47% in POM). Water quality index (WQI) in POM (ranged 28.7-79.9) was excellent for drinking, followed by PRM (23.6-218.2) and MON (33.4-202.7) seasons. This groundwater bears temporary hardness with the dominance of Ca-Mg-HCO3 water type. Health risk assessment of non-carcinogenic risk index of trace metals (Fe, Zn, Mn, and Pb) revealed, children are at 'low risk' and 'medium' risk with Ni and Cu. The carcinogenic risk index indicated 93% of samples were high Ni induced cancer risk for children, and 87% for adults due to long term ingestion (drinking water intake) pathway. Studies specific on placer mineral deposited coastal region of India are not sufficiently reported with a focus on the above perspectives. Growing need of rare earths for material, device and energy applications, placer mineral explorations can destabilise the coastal hydrosphere. Interrelations of mineral soil - water chemistry prevailed and health hazard predicted would kindle a set of sustainable deliberations. This study summarises the drinking and industrial use of coastal groundwater for future development and human well-being on the basis of quality criteria, corrosion proneness, water stability and health risk factors.

Mitigation and community preparedness in anticipating tsunami disasters in Muara Batu, Aceh.

The tsunami disaster in 2004 that caused thousands of causalities forced the community of Aceh to carry out mitigation and preparedness. This study aims to describe about the mitigation and preparedness of the community in Muara Batu, North Aceh, Indonesia, in the face of the tsunami disaster. Data collection techniques used are in-depth interviews, observation, questionnaire and documentation. The results showed that the tsunami disaster mitigation in Muara Batu District was as follows: (1) construction of breakwater by government and plantation of coconut trees by residents along the coast and (2) the provision of education about disasters has been carried out. Meanwhile, related to the preparedness of the community in dealing with the tsunami disaster, the following were concluded: (1) the preparedness of the community in dealing with the tsunami disaster was classified as ready; (2) the knowledge and attitude of the household community in dealing with the tsunami disaster is classified as ready; (3) the community policy in dealing with the tsunami disaster is low; (4) the community emergency response plan in dealing with the tsunami disaster is ready; (5) the tsunami warning system still uses a hereditary tradition of using sirens and loudspeakers in the meunasah and/or mushola; (6) the level of mobilisation of community resources is still low. Contribution: This study recommends strengthening mitigation and preparedness with periodic community training by the village or district government. This will increase and strengthen synergies and interconnections between communities, village and district governments in dealing with the tsunami disaster.

Design and Implementation of a Prototype Seismogeodetic System for Tectonic Monitoring.

This manuscript describes the design, development, and implementation of a prototype system based on seismogeodetic techniques, consisting of a low-cost MEMS seismometer/accelerometer, a biaxial inclinometer, a multi-frequency GNSS receiver, and a meteorological sensor, installed at the Doñana Biological Station (Huelva, Spain) that transmits multiparameter data in real and/or deferred time to the control center at the University of Cadiz. The main objective of this system is to know, detect, and monitor the tectonic activity in the Gulf of Cadiz region and adjacent areas in which important seismic events occur produced by the interaction of the Eurasian and African plates, in addition to the ability to integrate into a regional early warning system (EWS) to minimize the consequences of dangerous geological phenomena.

Groundwater chemistry and entropy weighted water quality index of tsunami affected and ecologically sensitive coastal region of India.

Quality groundwater is the most essential prerequisite for the better livelihood of the coastal villages and a vital resource for a safe living. Seawater interaction and coastal inundation modify hydro geochemical cycles leading to gross utility as a challenge. Poor quality water intake causes diseases and seriously affects human health. In this study, the suitability of shallow drinking water sources (10-15 m) has been studied with a focus on coastal village in south west of India (Alappad coast, Kollam, Kerala) which is a host of huge placer mineral reserve of the country. This coastal stretch has good deposition of Late Quaternary sediments of heavy mineral placers subjected to severe seawater interactions. Mineralogically, garnet and heavy minerals comprises the beaches and most coastal plains of the Alappad. A concerted geological process where moving water and waves causes erosion, leads to lowering of the earth's surface -is prominent in this fragmented land. This study critically evaluates the temporal-spatial impact of these interactions in an age of varying climatic conditions and hence for reference beyond. Water quality index analysis has been attempted using the entropy weighted water quality index (EWQI) method for a total of 45 samples (15 samples season-wise). It aims to ascertain better choices of groundwater sources for domestic uses for isolated settlers endowed with estuaries, and old coastal plains with barrier beaches. Irrigation suitability was evaluated using sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) and Na%. Observed EWQ Indices (38.2 ± 14.5) for post-monsoon (80% samples), (66.1 ± 77.7) for monsoon (66% samples), and (71.4 ± 71.3) for pre-monsoon (53% samples) fall in excellent category. Post-monsoon is most favoured for a better quality groundwater as evidenced by WQI of 80% among the samples tested. Ca-HCO3 is the dominant hydrochemical type observed. The mean value of iron (0.9 ± 1.3 mg/L) exceeded the permissible limit of 0.3 mg/L during monsoon season due to mineral-water interactions. In pre-monsoon season the parameters Na+ (95.9 ± 200.7 mg/L), Cl- (173.4 ± 510.2 mg/L), EC (1559.3 ± 2510.6 µS/cm), and TDS (492.5 ± 629.7 mg/L) were observed in higher ranges. Significant correlation (p < 0.05) prevailed between EWQI, and parameters-conductivity (0.75), TDS (0.75), Iron (0.59), Ca2+ (0.66), and Mg2+ (0.74). Principal component analysis (PCA) on chemical parameters accounted for the total variance of 84.2% in pre-monsoon, 89.9% in monsoon and 82.9% in post-monsoon. Groundwater quality is influenced by geochemical processes, salt intrusion, and human activities like fertiliser application and domestic sewage discharge. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) grouped the samples into three clusters. Cluster 3 represents poor quality water (13%) in pre-monsoon (EWQI ranged 32.2-192.7), and monsoon (EWQI ranged 171.8-309.7). Cluster 3 in post-monsoon (20%) indicating good water quality (EWQI ranged 51.4-72.6). Ultimate finding is that post-monsoon groundwater is more suitable for drinking and domestic purposes for the selected coastal area.

Exposure to the Indian Ocean Tsunami shapes the HPA-axis resulting in HPA "burnout" 14 years later.

Despite significant research on the effects of stress on the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, questions remain regarding long-term impacts of large-scale stressors. Leveraging data on exposure to an unanticipated major natural disaster, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, we provide causal evidence of its imprint on hair cortisol levels fourteen years later. Data are drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery, a population-representative longitudinal study of tsunami survivors who were living along the coast of Aceh, Indonesia, when the tsunami hit. Annual rounds of data, collected before, the year after and 2 y after the disaster provide detailed information about tsunami exposures and self-reported symptoms of post-traumatic stress. Hair samples collected 14 y after the tsunami from a sample of adult participants provide measures of cortisol levels, integrated over several months. Hair cortisol concentrations are substantially and significantly lower among females who were living, at the time of the tsunami, in communities directly damaged by the tsunami, in comparison with similar females living in other, nearby communities. Differences among males are small and not significant. Cortisol concentrations are lowest among those females living in damaged communities who reported elevated post-traumatic stress symptoms persistently for two years after the tsunami, indicating that the negative effects of exposure were largest for them. Low cortisol is also associated with contemporaneous reports of poor self-rated general and psychosocial health. Taken together, the evidence points to dysregulation in the HPA axis and "burnout" among these females fourteen years after exposure to the disaster.

Interaction of Val66Met BDNF and 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms with prevalence of post-earthquake 27-F PTSD in Chilean population.

Post-traumatic stress (PTSD) disorder is a mental health condition that can occur after experiencing or witnessing a traumatic event. The 27-F earthquake that struck Chile in 2010 was one such event that had a significant impact on the mental health of the population. A study was conducted to investigate the prevalence of PTSD and its associated factors among survivors of this earthquake. The study was a longitudinal design, involving a sample of 913 patients aged 18 to 75 years who attended 10 Primary Care Centers in Concepción, Chile. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was used to assess both depressive episodes (DE) and PTSD before and after the earthquake. The study also involved genotyping studies using saliva samples from the participants, specifically focusing on the Val66Met and 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms. Statistical analysis was performed to examine the association between different variables and the presence of PTSD. These variables included demographic factors, family history of psychiatric disorders, DE, childhood maltreatment experiences, and critical traumatic events related to the earthquake. The results showed that the incidence of post-earthquake PTSD was 11.06%. No significant differences were found between the groups of participants who developed post-earthquake PTSD regarding the Val66Met or 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms. However, a significant association was found between the concomitant diagnosis of DE and the development of post-earthquake PTSD. The presence of DE doubled the risk of developing post-earthquake PTSD. The number of traumatic events experienced also had a statistically significant association with an increased risk of developing post-earthquake PTSD. The study's limitations include the potential interference of different DE subtypes, the complexity of quantifying the degree of earthquake exposure experienced by each individual, and events entailing social disruption, such as looting, that can profoundly influence distress. In conclusion, the study found that PTSD following the 27-F earthquake in Chile was associated with a concomitant diagnosis of DE and the number of traumatic events experienced. The study did not find a significant association between PTSD and the Val66Met or 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms. The researchers recommend that mental health professionals should prioritize the detection and treatment of concomitant depressive episodes and exposure to critical traumatic events in survivors of disasters. They also suggest that further research is needed to better understand the relationship between genetic factors and post-disaster PTSD.

Assessment of the 1693 tsunami wave generation and propagation simulation based on multiple focal mechanism scenarios for recent disaster mitigation in eastern sicily, Italy.

The 1693 tsunami was the most extensive earthquake-tsunami event in Sicily, submerging Catania, Augusta, and Syracuse. However, the earthquake rupture, water level, arrival time, and furthest inundation distance of the tsunami waves are not yet known. This study aims to investigate the tsunamigenic source, run-up height, furthest inundation distance, and arrival time of the 1693 tsunami waves on the east coast of Sicily. Moreover, the assessment of tsunami-prone zones was also conducted based on worst-case earthquake-tsunami scenarios. Numerical modeling was applied by proposing six offshore focal mechanism scenarios using the shallow water equation in Delft3D and Delft Dashboard. The input parameters include length, width, strike, dip, slip, rake, and depth of the earthquake rupture. Meanwhile, the tsunami wave propagation onshore utilized XBeach and ArcGIS, considering the maximum run-up height, surface roughness analyzed from land use maps, slope, river existence, and coastline from Digital Terrain Model (DTM) identification. The results indicate that the worst possible impact of the 1693 tsunami was generated by an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 7.13. The maximum water level, furthest inundation distance, and arrival time achieved 7.7 m, 318 m, and 9 min after wave generation offshore, respectively. This simulation is consistent with the discovery of 1693 tsunami deposits at a distance of less than 400 m from the coastlines of Augusta and Syracuse, but it is above the estimated furthest inundation distance in previous studies, which only reached around 100 m-200 m from the eastern coastline of Sicily. The results of the study are reliable as they align with the 1697 historical document where seawater inundated San Filippo Square, Catania.

Evolution of Risk Aversion over Five Years after a Major Natural Disaster.

The impact of exposure to a major unanticipated natural disaster on the evolution of survivors' attitudes toward risk is examined, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in combination with rich population-representative longitudinal survey data spanning the five years after the tsunami. Respondents chose among pairs of hypothetical income streams. Those directly exposed to the tsunami made choices consistent with greater willingness to take on risk relative to those not directly exposed to the tsunami. These differences are short-lived: starting a year later, there is no evidence of differences in willingness to take on risk between the two groups. These conclusions hold for tsunami-related exposures measured at the individual and community level. Apparently, tsunami survivors were inclined to assume greater financial risk in the short-term while rebuilding their lives after the disaster.

Integration of knowledge and local wisdom for disaster resilience in Anak Krakatau volcano.

Indonesia lies on the Pacific Ring of Fire, where most of the area is highly unstable, making it a site of numerous volcanoes and earthquakes, so it needs to enhance its social system through knowledge, awareness, and local wisdom to create disaster resilience. Previous research has discussed resilience through societal knowledge and awareness, but there is a gap in understanding the local wisdom. Therefore, this study aims to present how the resilience process concerns with the community based on the local wisdom and knowledge for the community in Anak Krakatau, Banten. This research employs observations on the conditions of facilities and infrastructure of access road, in-depth interviews with local people, and bibliometric review over the last 17 years. A total of 16 articles were selected and reviewed for this study, after comprehensive analysis from 2000 documents. It is stated that preparing for natural hazards requires the integration of knowledge and local knowledge. Prior to the occurrence of a natural calamity, knowledge is dependent on the structure of a home in order to create a resilient structure, while local lore relies on the omens of nature. Contribution: The integration of knowledge and local wisdom can fulfil the resilience process in terms of preparedness and after effect of natural hazards. These integrations must be evaluated for disaster mitigation policies in order to develop and implement a comprehensive disaster mitigation plan for the community.

Introduction to "Sixty Years of Modern Tsunami Science, Volume 2: Challenges".

Fifteen papers are included in this PAGEOPH topical issue "Sixty Years of Modern Tsunami Science, Volume 2: Challenges." The issue starts with a general introduction, and then briefly summarizes all contributions, first papers addressing general topics, and then articles grouped on a regional basis: Northern Pacific, Southeast Pacific, Southwest Pacific and Indonesia, and Mediterranean regions.

Heavy Metal Pollution From a Major Earthquake and Tsunami in Chile Is Associated With Geographic Divergence of Clinical Isolates of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Latin America.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a priority pathogen listed by the World Health Organization. The global spread of MRSA is characterized by successive waves of epidemic clones that predominate in specific geographical regions. The acquisition of genes encoding resistance to heavy-metals is thought to be a key feature in the divergence and geographical spread of MRSA. Increasing evidence suggests that extreme natural events, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, could release heavy-metals into the environment. However, the impact of environmental exposition to heavy-metals on the divergence and spread of MRSA clones has been insufficiently explored. We assess the association between a major earthquake and tsunami in an industrialized port in southern Chile and MRSA clone divergence in Latin America. We performed a phylogenomic reconstruction of 113 MRSA clinical isolates from seven Latin American healthcare centers, including 25 isolates collected in a geographic area affected by an earthquake and tsunami that led to high levels of heavy-metal environmental contamination. We found a divergence event strongly associated with the presence of a plasmid harboring heavy-metal resistance genes in the isolates obtained in the area where the earthquake and tsunami occurred. Moreover, clinical isolates carrying this plasmid showed increased tolerance to mercury, arsenic, and cadmium. We also observed a physiological burden in the plasmid-carrying isolates in absence of heavy-metals. Our results are the first evidence that suggests that heavy-metal contamination, in the aftermath of an environmental disaster, appears to be a key evolutionary event for the spread and dissemination of MRSA in Latin America.

Impact of the tsunami caused by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption in Costa Rica on 15 January 2022.

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai had a large eruption (VEI 5-6) on 15 January 2022, which caused a tsunami recorded in all ocean basins. Costa Rica has made many advances in tsunami preparation over the past 9 years since the creation of SINAMOT (Sistema Nacional de Monitoreo de Tsunamis, National Tsunami Monitoring System), both on watch and warning protocols and on community preparedness. For the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai event, the government declared a low-threat warning, suspending all in-water activities, even though the country did not receive any official warning from PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center) due to the lack of procedures for tsunamis generated by volcanoes. The tsunami was observed at 24 locations on both the Pacific and Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica, becoming the second most recorded tsunami in the country, after the 1991 Limon tsunami along the Caribbean coast. At 22 of those locations along the continental Pacific coast, observations were made by eyewitnesses, including one collocated with the sea level station at Quepos, which registered the tsunami. At Cocos Island (~ 500 km southwest of the continental Costa Rica, in the Pacific Ocean), several eyewitnesses reported the tsunami at two locations, and it was recorded at the sea level station. The tsunami was also recorded at the sea level station on the Caribbean coast. The tsunami effects reported were a combination of sea level fluctuations, strong currents, and coastal erosion, proving that the response actions were adequate for the size of the tsunami. Tsunami preparedness and the largest waves arriving during a dry season Saturday afternoon allowed the large number of eyewitness reports. This event then increased tsunami awareness in the country and tested protocols and procedures. Still, many people along the coast were not informed of the tsunami during the alert due to their remote location, the short notice of the warning, and a lack of procedures for some communities. There is thus still much work to do, particularly about warning dissemination, a direction in which communities should take an active role. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00445-023-01648-x.

Disaster mobilities, temporalities, and recovery: experiences of the tsunami in the Maldives.

Large-scale disasters are frequently portrayed as temporally bounded, linear events after which survivors are encouraged to 'move on' as quickly as possible. In this paper, we explore how understandings of disaster mobilities and temporalities challenge such perspectives. Drawing on empirical research undertaken on Dhuvaafaru in the Maldives, a small island uninhabited until 2009 when it was populated by people displaced by the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, we examine what such understandings mean in the context of sudden population displacement followed by prolonged resettlement. The study reveals the diversity of disaster mobilities, how these reflect varied and complex temporalities of past, present, and future, and how processes of disaster recovery are temporally extended, uncertain, and often linger. In addition, the paper shows how attending to these dynamics contributes to understandings of how post-disaster settlement brings stability for some people while producing ongoing feelings of loss, longing, and unsettlement in others.

A method for evaluating population and infrastructure exposed to natural hazards: tests and results for two recent Tonga tsunamis.

Background: Coastal communities are highly exposed to ocean- and -related hazards but often lack an accurate population and infrastructure database. On January 15, 2022 and for many days thereafter, the Kingdom of Tonga was cut off from the rest of the world by a destructive tsunami associated with the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption. This situation was made worse by COVID-19-related lockdowns and no precise idea of the magnitude and pattern of destruction incurred, confirming Tonga's position as second out of 172 countries ranked by the World Risk Index 2018. The occurrence of such events in remote island communities highlights the need for (1) precisely knowing the distribution of buildings, and (2) evaluating what proportion of those would be vulnerable to a tsunami. Methods and Results: A GIS-based dasymetric mapping method, previously tested in New Caledonia for assessing and calibrating population distribution at high resolution, is improved and implemented in less than a day to jointly map population clusters and critical elevation contours based on runup scenarios, and is tested against destruction patterns independently recorded in Tonga after the two recent tsunamis of 2009 and 2022. Results show that ~ 62% of the population of Tonga lives in well-defined clusters between sea level and the 15 m elevation contour. The patterns of vulnerability thus obtained for each island of the archipelago allow exposure and potential for cumulative damage to be ranked as a function of tsunami magnitude and source area. Conclusions: By relying on low-cost tools and incomplete datasets for rapid implementation in the context of natural disasters, this approach works for all types of natural hazards, is easily transferable to other insular settings, can assist in guiding emergency rescue targets, and can help to elaborate future land-use planning priorities for disaster risk reduction purposes. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40677-023-00235-8.

The Long-Term Consequences of Early Life Exposure to Tsunami and Conflict on Adolescents in Sri Lanka.

The consequences for adolescent health due to early life exposure to natural disasters combined with war are not known. We collected data from adolescents aged 12-13 years in Sri Lanka whose mothers were pregnant during the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 in a tsunami-affected region (n = 22), conflict-affected region (n = 35), conflict-plus-tsunami-affected region (n = 29), or controls in areas unaffected by either (n = 24). Adjusted body mass index (BMI)-for-age z-scores were 1.3, 1.0 and 2.0 for conflict, tsunami, and conflict-plus-tsunami, respectively, compared with the control group. Greater skinfold thickness and higher diastolic blood pressure were found in adolescents born in the conflict zone but no differences were found in height, head circumference, and waist circumference, or blood results, with the exception of serum insulin. Being born after a natural disaster or during conflict was associated with increased BMI and body fat during adolescent, which are associated with longer-term risk of noncommunicable disease.

Agent-based models of human response to natural hazards: systematic review of tsunami evacuation.

This systematic review provides a comprehensive overview of tsunami evacuation models. The review covers scientific studies from the last decade (2012-2021) and is explicitly focused on models using an agent-based approach. The PRISMA methodology was used to analyze 171 selected papers, resulting in over 53 studies included in the detailed full-text analysis. This review is divided into two main parts: (1) a descriptive analysis of the presented models (focused on the modeling tools, validation, and software platform used, etc.), and (2) model analysis (e.g., model purpose, types of agents, input and output data, and modeled area). Special attention was given to the features of these models specifically associated with an agent-based approach. The results lead to the conclusion that the research domain of agent-based tsunami evacuation models is quite narrow and specialized, with a high degree of variability in the model attributes and properties. At the same time, the application of agent-specific methodologies, protocols, organizational paradigms, or standards is sparse. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-022-05643-x.

Uncovering a 70-year-old permafrost degradation induced disaster in the Arctic, the 1952 Niiortuut landslide-tsunami in central West Greenland.

On December 15th 1952, at approximately 14:00 local time a mass of 5.9 × 106 m3 of permafrozen talus deposits failed in a landslide close to the Niiortuut mountain on the south coast of the Nuussuaq peninsula, central West Greenland. Between 1.8 and 4.5 × 106 m3 of the material entered the sea and generated a tsunami that propagated through the Vaigat strait (Sullorsuaq). Here we describe this catastrophic event for the first time by analysis of historical material supplemented by recent fieldwork and discuss the implications for the state of contemporary permafrozen slopes. The tsunami killed a fisherman working on the shore of southern Nuussuaq, 10 km south-east of the landslide. In the mining town of Qullissat, 30 km south of the landslide, it had a runup height of 2.2-2.7 m and caused minor material damage. Morphological evidence show that the basal surface of rupture was 80 m inside the permafrost cemented talus slope, whose degradation was a dynamic conditioning factor for the landslide. The 1952 Niiortuut landslide is the first historically recorded event of permafrost degradation induced landslide-tsunamis in the Arctic. We infer that the landslide and its cascading consequences occurred due to the early-twentieth century warming that started in the late 1910's in the Arctic. Warming is now increasingly affecting this region, as shown by an enhanced recent landslide activity.