Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Impact on Cervical Precancers in a Low-Vaccination Population.

INTRODUCTION: Demonstrating human papillomavirus vaccine impact is critical for informing guidelines to increase vaccination and decrease human papillomavirus‒related outcomes, particularly in states with suboptimal vaccination coverage, such as Tennessee. This study examines the trends in high-grade cervical lesion incidence among Tennessee Medicaid-enrolled women aged 18-39 years and the subset of women who were screened for cervical cancer. METHODS: Using a validated claims-based model to identify incident cervical intraepithelial neoplasia Grades 2 or 3 or adenocarcinoma in situ events, annual age group‒specific incidence rates from Tennessee Medicaid billing data, 2008-2018, were calculated. Significant trends were determined by Joinpoint. Analyses were conducted in 2020. RESULTS: From 2008 to 2018, high-grade cervical lesion incidence significantly declined in women aged 18-20 years (average annual percentage change= -31.9, 95% CI= -38.6, -24.6), 21-24 years (average annual percentage change= -12.9, 95% CI= -22.3, -2.4), and 25-29 years (average annual percentage change= -6.4, 95% CI= -8.1, -4.6). Among screened women, rates significantly declined for ages 18-20 years (average annual percentage change= -20.3, 95% CI= -25.3, -15.0), 21-24 years (average annual percentage change= -10.2, 95% CI= -12.6, -7.8), and 25-29 years (average annual percentage change= -2.6, 95% CI= -3.9, -1.2). Trends from 2008 to 2018 were stable for older age groups (30-34 and 35-39 years). CONCLUSIONS: Results show reductions in high-grade cervical lesion incidence among ages most likely to have benefited from the human papillomavirus vaccine. Declines among young, screened women suggest causes other than reduction in screening. Evidence of vaccine impact in populations with low-vaccination coverage, such as Tennessee, is promising.

Personalized Medicine and Cervical Screening: Development of Individualized Quantitative Risk Assessments for Cervical Adenocarcinoma and Adenocarcinoma in situ.

INTRODUCTION: Cervical screening has decreased the incidence of cervical carcinoma around the world primarily by preventing cervical squamous carcinoma, with significantly less measurable protective benefits in prevention of cervical adenocarcinoma. In this study, we apply Bayesian modeling of cervical clinical, screening, and biopsy data from a large integrated health system to explore the feasibility of calculating personalized risk assessments on screened system patients for subsequent histopathologic diagnoses of invasive cervical adenocarcinoma (AdCa) or cervical adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Diagnoses of cervical AIS or AdCa rendered between 2005 and 2018 were identified in our large health system database with 1,053,713 cytology results, 354,843 high-risk (hr) human papillomavirus (HPV) test results, and 99,012 cervical histopathologic results. Using our continuously updated Bayesian cervical cancer screening model which includes clinical data, cervical screening results, and cervical biopsy results, we projected quantitative estimates of patients' 5-year cumulative risk for cervical AIS or AdCa. RESULTS: 161 patients were identified with AIS (ages 17-75, mean 37 years), and 99 patients had diagnoses of cervical AdCa (ages 26-91, mean 48 years). Quantitative Bayesian 5-year cumulative risk projections for diagnoses of cervical AdCa or AIS in patients with different cervical screening test and biopsy histories were determined. The highest patient risk projections for subsequent cervical AdCa and/or AIS histopathologic diagnoses were associated with prior cervical screening test results of HPV-positive atypical glandular cells. Prior squamous cytologic abnormalities were associated with lower risk estimates. Prior histopathologic diagnoses of squamous abnormalities also influenced quantitative risk. A prior histopathologic diagnosis of AIS was associated with a very low risk of subsequent AdCa, consistent with effective excisional treatment. AdCa risk was greatest in women aged 30-65 years with prior CIN3 biopsy results, whereas AIS risk was greatest in women <30. CONCLUSION: Prevention of cervical AdCa in screened patients remains a major challenge for cervical screening. Individualized risk projections for cervical glandular neoplasia reflecting patient age, prior cervical screening test results, and prior cervical biopsy history are feasible using Bayesian modeling of health system data.

Effectiveness of 1, 2, and 3 Doses of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Against High-Grade Cervical Lesions Positive for Human Papillomavirus 16 or 18.

Before 2016, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was recommended on a 3-dose schedule. However, many vaccine-eligible US females received fewer than 3 doses, which provided an opportunity to evaluate the real-world vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 1, 2, and 3 doses. We analyzed data on cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grades 2-3 and adenocarcinoma in situ (designated CIN2+) from the HPV Vaccine Impact Monitoring Project (HPV-IMPACT; 2008-2014). Archived tissue from CIN2+ lesions was tested for 37 types of HPV. Women were classified by number of doses received ≥24 months before CIN2+ detection. Using a test-negative design, VE was estimated as 1 minus the adjusted odds ratio from a logistic regression model that compared vaccination history for women whose lesions tested positive for HPV-16/18 (vaccine-type cases) with that for women who had all other CIN2+ lesions (controls). Among 3,300 women with available data on CIN2+, typing results, and vaccine history, 1,561 (47%) were HPV-16/18-positive, 136 (4%) received 1 dose of HPV vaccine, 108 (3%) received 2 doses, and 325 (10%) received 3 doses. Adjusted odds ratios for vaccination with 1, 2, and 3 doses were 0.53 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.37, 0.76; VE = 47%), 0.45 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.69; VE = 55%), and 0.26 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.35; VE = 74%), respectively. We found significant VE against vaccine-type CIN2+ after 3 doses of HPV vaccine and lower but significant VE with 1 or 2 doses.

Cervical adenocarcinoma in situ: Human papillomavirus types and incidence trends in five states, 2008-2015.

Primary prevention through the use of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is expected to impact both cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS). While CIN is well described, less is known about the epidemiology of AIS, a rare cervical precancer. We identified AIS and CIN grade 3 (CIN3) cases through population-based surveillance, and analyzed data on HPV types and incidence trends overall, and among women screened for cervical cancer. From 2008 to 2015, 470 AIS and 6,587 CIN3 cases were identified. The median age of women with AIS was older than those with CIN3 (35 vs. 31 years; p < 0.01). HPV16 was the most frequently detected type in both AIS and CIN3 (57% in AIS; 58% in CIN3), whereas HPV18 was the second most common type in AIS and less common in CIN3 (38% vs. 5%; p < 0.01). AIS lesions were more likely than CIN3 lesions to be positive for high-risk types targeted by the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines (HPV16/18, 92% vs. 63%; p < 0.01), and 9-valent vaccine (HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58, 95% vs. 87%; p < 0.01). AIS incidence rates decreased significantly in the 21-24 year age group (annual percent change [APC] overall: -22.1%, 95% CI: -33.9 to -8.2; APC among screened: -16.1%, 95% CI: -28.8 to -1.2), but did not decrease significantly in any older age group. This report on the largest number of genotyped AIS cases to date suggests an important opportunity for vaccine prevention of AIS, and is the first to document a decline in AIS incidence rates among young women during the vaccine era.

Trends in Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Types 16 and 18 in Cervical Precancers, 2008-2014.

BACKGROUND: The impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has been observed in the United States through declining cervical precancer incidence in young women. To further evaluate vaccine impact, we described trends in HPV vaccine types 16/18 in cervical precancers, 2008-2014. METHODS: We analyzed data from a 5-site, population-based surveillance system. Archived specimens from women age 18-39 years diagnosed with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2-3 or adenocarcinoma in situ (CIN2+) were tested for 37 HPV types. We described the proportion and estimated number of cases of CIN2+ by HPV-type groups over time. Trends in HPV16/18-positive CIN2+ were examined, overall and by vaccination status, age, histologic grade, and race/ethnicity, using Cochrane-Armitage tests. RESULTS: In 10,206 cases, the proportion and estimated number of cases of HPV16/18-positive CIN2+ declined from 52.7% (1,235 cases) in 2008 to 44.1% (819 cases) in 2014 (P < 0.001). Declining trends in the proportion of HPV16/18-positive CIN2+ were observed among vaccinated (55.2%-33.3%, P < 0.001) and unvaccinated (51.0%-47.3%, P = 0.03) women; ages 18-20 (48.7%-18.8%, P = 0.02), 21-24 (53.8%-44.0%, P < 0.001), 25-29 (56.9%-42.4%, P < 0.001), and 30-34 (49.8%-45.8%, P = 0.04) years; CIN2 (40.8%-29.9%, P < 0.001) and CIN2/3 (61.8%-46.2%, P < 0.001); non-Hispanic white (59.5%-47.9%, P < 0.001) and non-Hispanic black (40.7%-26.5%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: From 2008-2014, the proportion of HPV16/18-positive CIN2+ declined, with the greatest declines in vaccinated women; declines in unvaccinated women suggest herd protection. IMPACT: The declining proportion of HPV16/18-positive CIN2+ provides additional evidence of vaccine impact in the United States.

A 12-Year Follow-up on the Long-Term Effectiveness of the Quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus Vaccine in 4 Nordic Countries.

Background: The long-term effectiveness of the quadrivalent human papillomavirus (qHPV) vaccine was assessed by monitoring the combined incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2, CIN3), adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS), and cervical cancer related to HPV16 or HPV18. Methods: Women from Nordic countries of Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden who received a 3-dose regimen of the qHPV vaccine in the beginning of FUTURE II (Females United to Unilaterally Reduce Endo/Ectocervical Disease; V501-015, base study NCT00092534) are followed through different national registries. Effectiveness analyses were conducted approximately 2 years following completion of the base study and occur approximately every 2 years thereafter for 10 years (ie, 14 years from day 1 of the base study). Vaccine effectiveness against HPV16/18-related CIN2 or worse (CIN2+) was estimated by comparing the observed incidence with the expected incidence of CIN2+ in an unvaccinated cohort using historical registry data. Results: In the per-protocol population (2084 women) analysis of effectiveness after the first 12 years, there were no breakthrough cases of HPV16/18 CIN2+ after 9437 person- years of follow-up. Statistical power was sufficient to conclude that qHPV vaccine effectiveness remains above 90% for at least 10 years. The number of person-years during the follow-up interval of 10-12 years is continuing to accrue and shows a trend toward continuing effectiveness of the vaccine during that period. Conclusion: The qHPV vaccine shows continued protection in women through at least 10 years, with a trend for continued protection through 12 years of follow-up. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT00092534. Study Identification: V501-015.

Declines in Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-Associated High-Grade Cervical Lesions After Introduction of HPV Vaccines in Connecticut, United States, 2008-2015.

BACKGROUND: Trends in human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated cervical lesions can provide an indication of vaccine impact. Our purpose was to measure trends in cervical lesions during 2008-2015 and to consider possible explanations including vaccination coverage, changes in screening for cervical cancer, and risk behaviors for acquiring HPV. METHODS: Connecticut (CT) implemented mandatory reporting of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2/3 and adenocarcinoma in situ (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or higher [CIN2+]) in 2008. Trends by age and birth cohort were modeled using negative binomial regression and change-point methods. To evaluate possible explanations for changes, these trends were compared to changes in HPV vaccination coverage, cervical cancer screening, an antecedent event to detection of a high-grade lesion, and changes in sexual behaviors and Chlamydia trachomatis, an infection with similar epidemiology to and shared risk factors for HPV. RESULTS: A significant decline in CIN2+ was first evident among women aged 21 years in 2010, followed by successive declines in women aged 22-26 years during 2011-2012. During 2008-2015, the rates of CIN2+ declined by 30%-74% among women aged 21-26 years, with greater declines observed in the younger women. Birth cohorts between 1985 and 1994 all experienced significant declines during the surveillance period, ranging from 25% to 82%. Ecological comparisons revealed substantial increases in HPV vaccination during this time period, and more modest reductions in cervical cancer screening and sexual risk behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: The age and cohort patterns in our data suggest that declines in CIN2+ during 2008-2015 are more likely driven by HPV vaccination, introduced in 2006, than by changes in screening or risk behavior.

Reduction in HPV 16/18-associated high grade cervical lesions following HPV vaccine introduction in the United States - 2008-2012.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of pre-invasive cervical lesions is an important benefit of HPV vaccines, but demonstrating impact on these lesions is impeded by changes in cervical cancer screening. Monitoring vaccine-types associated with lesions can help distinguish vaccine impact from screening effects. We examined trends in prevalence of HPV 16/18 types detected in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2, 3, and adenocarcinoma in situ (CIN2+) among women diagnosed with CIN2+ from 2008 to 2012 by vaccination status. We estimated vaccine effectiveness against HPV 16/18-attributable CIN2+ among women who received ≥1 dose by increasing time intervals between date of first vaccination and the screening test that led to detection of CIN2+ lesion. METHODS: Data are from a population-based sentinel surveillance system to monitor HPV vaccine impact on type-specific CIN2+ among adult female residents of five catchment areas in California, Connecticut, New York, Oregon, and Tennessee. Vaccination and cervical cancer screening information was retrieved. Archived diagnostic specimens were obtained from reporting laboratories for HPV DNA typing. RESULTS: From 2008 to 2012, prevalence of HPV 16/18 in CIN2+ lesions statistically significantly decreased from 53.6% to 28.4% among women who received at least one dose (Ptrend<.001) but not among unvaccinated women (57.1% vs 52.5%; Ptrend=.08) or women with unknown vaccination status (55.0% vs 50.5%; Ptrend=.71). Estimated vaccine effectiveness for prevention of HPV 16/18-attributable CIN2+ was 21% (95% CI: 1-37), 49% (95% CI: 28-64), and 72% (95% CI: 45-86) in women who initiated vaccination 25-36 months, 37-48 months, and >48 months prior to the screening test that led to CIN2+ diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Population-based data from the United States indicate significant reductions in CIN2+ lesions attributable to types targeted by the vaccines and increasing HPV vaccine effectiveness with increasing interval between first vaccination and earliest detection of cervical disease.

HPV type attribution in high-grade cervical lesions: assessing the potential benefits of vaccines in a population-based evaluation in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Two currently available vaccines targeting human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 could prevent 70% of cervical cancers and 50% of high-grade cervical lesions. Next-generation vaccines against additional types, such as a candidate 9-valent vaccine against HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58, could further reduce HPV-associated disease burden. METHODS: HPV was typed in archived tissues from women ages 21 to 39 years residing in five catchment areas in the United States with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2/3 and adenocarcinoma in situ (CIN2+) using L1 consensus PCR and type-specific hybridization. Type attribution was estimated using weights to account for lesions with multiple types detected. RESULTS: From 2008 to 2011, 5,498 of 6,306 (87.2%) specimens obtained from 8,469 women with CIN2+ had valid typing results; HPV DNA was detected in 97.3%. Overall, 50.1% of lesions were attributable to HPV16/18, ranging from 50.3% to 52.4% among those ages 21 to 34 years, and significantly declined in 35 to 39 year-olds (43.5%). HPV16/18 attribution was higher in non-Hispanic whites (56.4%) versus racial/ethnic minorities (range, 41.8%-45.9%; P < 0.001). HPV31/33/45/52/58 attribution was 25.0% overall and increased with age (P < 0.001). A higher proportion of CIN2+ was attributable to HPV31/33/45/52/58 in non-Hispanic black (29.9%), Hispanic (29.2%), and Asian (33.1%) women compared with non-Hispanic whites (22.8%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, 75% of lesions were attributable to 7 oncogenic HPV types: 50% to HPV16/18 and 25% to HPV31/33/45/52/58. HPV16/18 had the largest attributable fraction in CIN2+ across all subpopulations, although to a lesser extent in older women and racial/ethnic minorities. IMPACT: Vaccines targeting additional oncogenic HPV types could prevent more high-grade cervical lesions, especially among racial/ethnic minorities.

Dietary methionine restriction inhibits prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia in TRAMP mice.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer (PCa) is a major aging-related disease for which little progress has been made in developing preventive strategies. Over the past several years, methionine restriction (MR), the feeding of a diet low in methionine (Met), has been identified as an intervention which significantly extends lifespan and reduces the onset of chronic diseases, including cancer, in laboratory animals. We, therefore, hypothesized that MR may be an effective strategy for inhibiting PCa. METHODS: Control (0.86% Met) or MR (0.12% Met) diets were fed to 5-week old TRansgenic Adenocarcinoma of the Mouse Prostate (TRAMP) mice, a well-characterized model for PCa. The mice were sacrificed at 16 weeks of age and prostate and other tissues were harvested for histological and biochemical analyses. RESULTS: As previously reported, MR was associated with a decrease in body weight which was not associated with lowered food intake. MR led to significant reductions in the development of Prostatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (PIN) lesions, specifically in the anterior and dorsal lobes of the prostate where the incidence of high-grade PIN was reduced by ∼50% (P < 0.02). The reduction in PIN severity was associated with 46-64% reductions in cell proliferation rates (P < 0.02) and plasma IGF-1 levels (P < 0.0001), which might, in part, explain the effects on carcinogenesis. Additionally, no adverse consequences of MR on immune function were observed in the TRAMP mice. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these findings indicate that MR is associated with a reduction in prostate cancer development in the TRAMP model and supports the continued development of MR as a potential PCa prevention strategy.

Monitoring the impact of a national HPV vaccination program in Japan (MINT Study): rationale, design and methods.

We have developed a collaborative hospital-based approach to monitoring the impact of a human papillomavirus vaccine on cervical cancer, its precursor lesions and human papillomavirus type-specific prevalence in Japan. The monitoring will be conducted for a total period of 21 years on women aged <40 who are newly diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or adenocarcinoma in situ at 21 participating institutes. Women are monitored to determine their vaccine history and will be human papillomavirus-genotyped each year. The primary endpoint is the human papillomavirus16/human papillomavirus18-positive rate in women aged 16-25 who are diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 and adenocarcinoma in situ. The major secondary endpoints are the number of women aged <40 who are diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 and adenocarcinoma in situ, the human papillomavirus type-specific prevalence, and the number of deaths from invasive cervical cancer in women aged <40. Long-term surveillance for human papillomavirus-associated cervical diseases in young females is important for the development of future strategies for cervical cancer prevention in Japan.