Relationships between migration and the fiscal sustainability of the pension system in China.

There are a few existing studies on whether domestic migration improves China's pension system's fiscal sustainability in the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization. In this paper, we systematically investigate the impact of migration on the solvency of the worker's old-age insurance for urban employees by constructing actuarial and econometric models. We use panel data from 2002 to 2018, collected from 31 provinces in China. The results show that the association between migration and the solvency of pensions is an inverted-U shape along the urbanization process. Further regional comparison showed that the above-stated inverted-U curve is more pronounced in the central and western regions. We also established that the number of participants and the contribution base are the main contributors to these results. Our conclusions are important for future population policies and public pension systems in China.

Using QALYs versus DALYs to measure cost-effectiveness: How much does it matter?

OBJECTIVES: Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) are commonly used in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to measure health benefits. We sought to quantify and explain differences between QALY- and DALY-based cost-effectiveness ratios, and explore whether using one versus the other would materially affect conclusions about an intervention's cost-effectiveness. METHODS: We identified CEAs using both QALYs and DALYs from the Tufts Medical Center CEA Registry and Global Health CEA Registry, with a supplemental search to ensure comprehensive literature coverage. We calculated absolute and relative differences between the QALY- and DALY-based ratios, and compared ratios to common benchmarks (e.g., 1× gross domestic product per capita). We converted reported costs into US dollars. RESULTS: Among eleven published CEAs reporting both QALYs and DALYs, seven focused on pharmaceuticals and infectious disease, and five were conducted in high-income countries. Four studies concluded that the intervention was "dominant" (cost-saving). Among the QALY- and DALY-based ratios reported from the remaining seven studies, absolute differences ranged from approximately $2 to $15,000 per unit of benefit, and relative differences from 6-120 percent, but most differences were modest in comparison with the ratio value itself. The values assigned to utility and disability weights explained most observed differences. In comparison with cost-effectiveness thresholds, conclusions were consistent regardless of the ratio type in ten of eleven cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that although QALY- and DALY-based ratios for the same intervention can differ, differences tend to be modest and do not materially affect comparisons to common cost-effectiveness thresholds.

Marketplace Plans Provide Risk Protection, But Actuarial Values Overstate Realized Coverage For Most Enrollees.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) has increased the number of Americans with health insurance. Yet many policy makers and consumers have questioned the value of Marketplace plan coverage because of the generally high levels of cost sharing. We simulated out-of-pocket spending for bronze, silver, or gold Marketplace plans (those having actuarial values of 60 percent, 70 percent, and 80 percent, respectively). We found that for the vast majority of consumers, the proportion of covered spending paid by the plans is likely to be far less than their actuarial values, the metric commonly used to convey plan generosity. Indeed, only when annual health care spending exceeds $16,500 for bronze plans, $19,500 for silver plans, and $21,500 for gold plans do plans in these metal tiers cover the proportion of costs matching their actuarial values. While Marketplace plans substantially reduce consumers' exposure to financial risk relative to being uninsured, the use of actuarial values to communicate plan generosity is likely to be misleading to consumers.

[Rare diseases from a life insurance perspective]. / Seltene Erkrankungen aus Sicht der Lebensversicherungswirtschaft.

A rare disease is defined as a disease that affects a maximum of 5 in 10,000 people. As of today there are roughly 7000 different rare diseases known. On account of this one can say that "rare diseases are rare, but people affected by them are common". For Germany this amounts to: 4 million people that are affected by a rare disease. Diagnosis, therapeutic options and prognosis have substantially improved for some of the rare diseases. Besides the general medical advances--especially in the area of genetics--this is also due to networking and sharing information by so-called Centres of Competence on a national and international scale. This results in a better medical care for the corresponding group of patients. Against this backdrop, the number of people applying for life assurance who are suffering from a complex or rare disease has risen steadily in the last years. Due to the scarce availability of data regarding long-term prognosis of many rare diseases, a biomathematical, medical and actuarial expertise on the part of the insurer is necessary in order to adequately assess the risk of mortality and morbidity. Furthermore there is quite a focus on the issue of rare diseases from not only politics but society as well. Therefore evidence based medical assessment by insurers is especially important in this group of applicants--thinking of legal compliance and reputational risk.

Actuarial considerations of medical malpractice evaluations in M&As.

To best project an actuarial estimate for medical malpractice exposure for a merger and acquisition, a organization's leaders should consider the following factors, among others: How to support an unbiased actuarial estimation. Experience of the actuary. The full picture of the organization's malpractice coverage. The potential for future loss development. Frequency and severity trends.

Population forecasts for Bangladesh, using a Bayesian methodology.

Population projection for many developing countries could be quite a challenging task for the demographers mostly due to lack of availability of enough reliable data. The objective of this paper is to present an overview of the existing methods for population forecasting and to propose an alternative based on the Bayesian statistics, combining the formality of inference. The analysis has been made using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for Bayesian methodology available with the software WinBUGS. Convergence diagnostic techniques available with the WinBUGS software have been applied to ensure the convergence of the chains necessary for the implementation of MCMC. The Bayesian approach allows for the use of observed data and expert judgements by means of appropriate priors, and a more realistic population forecasts, along with associated uncertainty, has been possible.

Dose-painted intensity-modulated radiation therapy for anal cancer: a multi-institutional report of acute toxicity and response to therapy.

PURPOSE: Chemoradiation for anal cancer yields effective tumor control, but is associated with significant acute toxicity. We report our multi-institutional experience using dose-painted IMRT (DP-IMRT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between August 2005 and May 2009, 43 patients were treated with DP-IMRT and concurrent chemotherapy for biopsy-proven, squamous cell carcinoma of the anal canal at two academic medical centers. DP-IMRT was prescribed as follows: T2N0: 42 Gy, 1.5 Gy/fraction (fx) to elective nodal planning target volume (PTV) and 50.4 Gy, 1.8 Gy/fx to anal tumor PTV; T3-4N0-3: 45 Gy, 1.5 Gy/fx to elective nodal PTV, and 54 Gy, 1.8 Gy/fx to the anal tumor and metastatic nodal PTV >3 cm with 50.4 Gy, 1.68 Gy/fx to nodal PTVs ≤ 3 cm in size. Acute and late toxicity was reported by the treating physician. Actuarial analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Median age was 58 years; 67% female; 16% Stage I, 37% II; 42% III; 5% IV. Fourteen patients were immunocompromised: 21% HIV-positive and 12% on chronic immunosuppression. Median follow-up was 24 months (range, 0.6-43.5 months). Sixty percent completed chemoradiation without treatment interruption; median duration of treatment interruption was 2 days (range, 2-24 days). Acute Grade 3+ toxicity included: hematologic 51%, dermatologic 10%, gastrointestinal 7%, and genitourinary 7%. Two-year local control, overall survival, colostomy-free survival, and metastasis-free survival were 95%, 94%, 90%, and 92%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Dose-painted IMRT appears effective and well-tolerated as part of a chemoradiation therapy regimen for the treatment of anal canal cancer.

The efficiency of a group-specific mandated benefit revisited: the effect of infertility mandates.

This paper examines the labor market effects of state health insurance mandates that increase the cost of employing a demographically identifiable group. State mandates requiring that health insurance plans cover infertility treatment raise the relative cost of insuring older women of child-bearing age. Empirically, wages in this group are unaffected, but their total labor input decreases. Workers do not value infertility mandates at cost, and so will not take wage cuts in exchange, leading employers to decrease their demand for this affected and identifiable group. Differences in the empirical effects of mandates found in the literature are explained by a model including variations in the elasticity of demand, moral hazard, ability to identify a group, and adverse selection.

Selection in insurance markets: theory and empirics in pictures.

Government intervention in insurance markets is ubiquitous and the theoretical basis for such intervention, based on classic work from the 1970s, has been the problem of adverse selection. Over the last decade, empirical work on selection in insurance markets has gained considerable momentum. This research finds that adverse selection exists in some insurance markets but not in others. And it has uncovered examples of markets that exhibit "advantageous selection"­a phenomenon not considered by the original theory, and one that has different consequences for equilibrium insurance allocation and optimal public policy than the classical case of adverse selection. Advantageous selection arises when the individuals who are willing to pay the most for insurance are those who are the most risk averse (and so have the lowest expected cost). Indeed, it is natural to think that in many instances individuals who value insurance more may also take action to lower their expected costs: drive more carefully, invest in preventive health care, and so on. Researchers have taken steps toward estimating the welfare consequences of detected selection and of potential public policy interventions. In this essay, we present a graphical framework for analyzing both theoretical and empirical work on selection in insurance markets. This graphical approach provides both a useful and intuitive depiction of the basic theory of selection and its implications for welfare and public policy, as well as a lens through which one can understand the ideas and limitations of existing empirical work on this topic.

Riesgo cardiovascular, una herramienta útil para la prevención de las enfermedades cardiovasculares / Cardiovascular risk, a useful tool for prevention of cardiovascular diseases

El riesgo cardiovascular se define como la probabilidad de padecer un evento cardiovascular en un determinado período. Mejorar la exactitud en la predicción del riesgo requiere la evaluación y el tratamiento de múltiples factores de riesgo cardiovascular, los que tienen un efecto sinérgico, más que aditivo, sobre el riesgo cardiovascular total. El cálculo utilizando métodos cuantitativos es más preciso que el obtenido con métodos cualitativos. La predicción del riesgo cardiovascular ha constituido, en los últimos años, la piedra angular en las guías clínicas de prevención cardiovascular, y deviene una herramienta útil del Médico de Familia para establecer prioridades en la atención primaria, mejorando la atención a los pacientes y eligiendo más eficazmente la terapéutica a seguir, con el objetivo de acercarnos más a la realidad multifactorial de las enfermedades cardiovasculares y a su prevención

The cardiovascular risk is defined like a probability of suffering a cardiovascular event in a determined period. To improve the accuracy in risk prediction requires the assessment and treatment of different cardiovascular risk factors, which have a synergistic effect more than additive on the total cardiovascular risk. The calculus using quantitative methods is more accurate than that obtained with qualitative methods. The prediction of cardiovascular risk has been in past years the cornerstone in clinical guidances of cardiovascular prevention and becomes an useful tool for Family Physician to establish priorities in the primary care, improving the patients care and selecting in a more effective way the therapy to be followed to bring closer more to multifactor reality of cardiovascular diseases and its prevention

Legal and ethical implications of health care provider insurance risk assumption.

From bedside to boardroom, nurses deal with the consequences of health care provider insurance risk assumption. Professional caregiver insurance risk refers to insurance risks assumed through contracts with third parties, federal and state Medicare and Medicaid program mandates, and the diagnosis-related groups and Prospective Payment Systems. This article analyzes the financial, legal, and ethical implications of provider insurance risk assumption by focusing on the degree to which patient benefits are reduced.

ANTEROCOD: actuarial survival curves applied to medical coding support for chronic diseases.

For the practitioner, choosing diagnosis codes is a non-intuitive operation. Mistakes are frequent, causing severe consequences on healthcare performance evaluation and funding. French physicians have to assign a code to all their activities and are frequently prone to these errors. Given that most of the time and particularly for chronic diseases indexed information is already available, we propose a tool named AnterOcod, in order to support the medical coding task. It suggests the list of most relevant plausible codes, predicted from the patient's earlier hospital stays, according to a set of previously utilized diagnosis codes. Our method applies the estimation of code reappearance rates, based on an equivalent approach to actuarial survival curves. Around 33% of the expected correct diagnosis codes were retrieved in this manner, after evaluating 998 discharge abstracts, significantly improving the coding task.

A time series modeling approach in risk appraisal of violent and sexual recidivism.

For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.

Risk and safety assessment in child welfare: instrument comparisons.

The assessment of risk is a critical part of child welfare agency practice. This review of the research literature on different instruments for assessing risk and safety in child welfare focuses on instrument reliability, validity, outcomes, and use with children and families of color. The findings suggest that the current actuarial instruments have stronger predictive validity than consensus-based instruments. This review was limited by the variability in definitions and measures across studies, the relatively small number of studies examining risk assessment instruments, and the lack of studies on case decision points other than the initial investigation.

[Decision analysis--a novel approach for calculating the cost-efficiency of medical tests]. / Entscheidungsanalyse--ein neuer Ansatz zur Kosteneffizienz- berechnung medizinischer Tests.

Before issuing an insurance policy (e.g. life, disability, critical illness), insurers will usually carry out a medical risk assessment in order to prevent adverse selection. Often, the health questions in the application form will not be sufficient for this purpose since most applicants are not well-versed in medical science and terminology. If the insurer needs additional medical information such as a private medical attendant's report or current laboratory tests, however, costs will be incurred, which usually have to be paid by the insurer. What is the minimum sum insured which makes it worthwhile for the insurer to conduct certain screening tests, for example? Both the costs of medical screening and the associated savings are difficult to measure and involve a variety of different factors. Moreover, most parameters can only be estimated with limited accuracy. Therefore, we have developed a new calculation model using a decision-analysis approach. The new model makes it possible to analyse complex situations while taking into account the uncertainty of parameter estimation. Our findings show that in Germany, for instance, current sum thresholds for older applicants could in many cases be lowered and would still be cost-effective.

Risk of violence by psychiatric patients: beyond the "actuarial versus clinical" assessment debate.

Recently adopted statistical approaches improve researchers' ability to describe what is, and what is not, possible in the prediction of violence by psychiatric patients. At the base rates of violence routinely encountered in outpatient settings, current assessment methods would require hospital admission of large numbers of patients who are potential offenders in order to prevent the actual offending of a few. Suggestions that substantially greater accuracy is possible for short-term predictions, for particular symptom clusters, and for particular offenses have yet to be tested and confirmed. Further research may improve this state of affairs, for instance, by concentrating on particular patient groups. There are reasons to suspect that any improvement will be limited. Clinical practice, however, is likely to continue to require the assessment of a patient's potential for acting violently. Future research should aid such assessments by clarifying the mechanisms by which risk factors correlate with violence and by establishing the clinical usefulness of actuarial scales.

Actuarial assessment of violence risk in hospital-based partner assault clinics.

Hospital-based partner assault clinics are a relatively recent addition to the community response to partner violence. In this study, 66% of 111 women attending hospital clinics for partner assault were physically injured and 43% reported death threats. Few concurrently used other services (shelters or police) and most relied on female friends and relatives for help. Many participants who currently lived with the perpetrator were contemplating leaving but only a third had made plans to do so. Participants faced an unusually high risk of future assault, according to both victim interview using the ODARA actuarial risk assessment and their own perceptions. Findings imply an important role for partner assault clinics and the feasibility of the victim service sector's using the same actuarial risk assessments as the criminal justice system.

Predictive medical information and underwriting.

Medical underwriting involves the application of actuarial science by analyzing medical information to predict the future risk of a claim. The objective is that individuals with like risk are treated in a like manner so that the premium paid is proportional to the risk of future claim.

Unguided clinical and actuarial assessment of re-offending risk: a direct comparison with sex offenders in Denmark.

Meta-analyses suggest that actuarial risk assessments outperform unguided clinical judgment for prediction of recidivism in criminal offenders. However, there is a lack of direct comparisons of the predictive accuracy of clinical judgment and actuarial risk scales for sexual offenders. We followed up 121 male sex offenders (> or =18 years) subjected to pre-trial forensic psychiatric assessment in Denmark in 1978-1992 (mean post-detainment time = 16.4 years) to compare the predictive validity of unstructured clinical judgment of recidivism risk with that of the well-established Static-99 (Hanson and Thornton, Law and Human Behavior 24:119-136, 2000) and an extension of the Static-99, the Static-2002 (Hanson and Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Rep. No. 2003-01), Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada, Ottawa, Canada, 2003). The predictive accuracy of unguided judgment did not exceed chance for any sexual, severe sexual or any violent (sexual or non-sexual) reconviction (AUCs of the ROC curve = 0.52, 95%CI = 0.41-0.63; 0.50, 95%CI = 0.34-0.67; and 0.57, 95%CI = 0.40-0.73, respectively). In contrast, all three outcomes were predicted significantly better than chance by the Static-99 (AUC = 0.62, 95%CI = 0.52-0.72; 0.72, 95%CI = 0.59-0.84; and 0.71, 95%CI = 0.56-0.86) and the Static-2002 (AUC = 0.67, 95%CI = 0.57-0.77; 0.69, 95%CI = 0.56-0.83; and 0.70, 95%CI = 0.55-0.86). Static-99 outperformed clinical judgment for sexual recidivision (chi(2) = 5.11, df = 1, p < .05). The Static-2002 was significantly more accurate for the prediction of any sexual recidivism as compared to unguided clinical judgment but its advantage fell just short of statistical significance for severe sexual recidivism (chi(2) = 3.56, df = 1, p = 0.06). When tested for recidivism within 2 years, none of the three prediction methods yielded results significantly better than chance for any outcome. This direct trial of the unguided clinical method argues against its continued use for risk assessment of sexual offenders.