Stillbirth as left truncation for early neonatal death in California, 1989-2015: a time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Some scholars posit that attempts to avert stillbirth among extremely preterm gestations may result in a live birth but an early neonatal death. The literature, however, reports no empirical test of this potential form of left truncation. We examine whether annual cohorts delivered at extremely preterm gestational ages show an inverse correlation between their incidence of stillbirth and early neonatal death. METHODS: We retrieved live birth and infant death information from the California Linked Birth and Infant Death Cohort Files for years 1989 to 2015. We defined the extremely preterm period as delivery from 22 to < 28 weeks of gestation and early neonatal death as infant death at less than 7 days of life. We calculated proportions of stillbirth and early neonatal death separately by cohort year, race/ethnicity, and sex. Our correlational analysis controlled for well-documented declines in neonatal mortality over time. RESULTS: California reported 89,276 extremely preterm deliveries (live births and stillbirths) to Hispanic, non-Hispanic (NH) Black, and NH white mothers from 1989 to 2015. Findings indicate an inverse correlation between stillbirth and early neonatal death in the same cohort year (coefficient: -0.27, 95% CI of - 0.11; - 0.42). Results remain robust to alternative specifications and falsification tests. CONCLUSIONS: Findings support the notion that cohorts with an elevated risk of stillbirth also show a reduced risk of early neonatal death among extremely preterm deliveries. Results add to the evidence base that selection in utero may influence the survival characteristics of live-born cohorts.

Health Care Use Among Latinx Children After 2017 Executive Actions on Immigration.

BACKGROUND: US immigration policy changes may affect health care use among Latinx children. We hypothesized that January 2017 restrictive immigration executive actions would lead to decreased health care use among Latinx children. METHODS: We used controlled interrupted time series to estimate the effect of executive actions on outpatient cancellation or no-show rates from October 2016 to March 2017 ("immigration action period") among Latinx children in 4 health care systems in North Carolina. We included control groups of (1) non-Latinx children and (2) Latinx children from the same period in the previous year ("control period") to account for natural trends such as seasonality. RESULTS: In the immigration action period, 114 627 children contributed 314 092 appointments. In the control period, 107 657 children contributed 295 993 appointments. Relative to the control period, there was an immediate 5.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.40%-10.9%) decrease in cancellation rates among all Latinx children, but no sustained change in trend of cancellations and no change in no-show rates after executive immigration actions. Among uninsured Latinx children, there was an immediate 12.7% (95% CI: 2.3%-23.1%) decrease in cancellations; however, cancellations then increased by 2.4% (95% CI: 0.89%-3.9%) per week after immigration actions, an absolute increase of 15.5 cancellations per 100 appointments made. CONCLUSIONS: There was a sustained increase in cancellations among uninsured Latinx children after immigration actions, suggesting decreased health care use among uninsured Latinx children. Continued monitoring of effects of immigration policy on child health is needed, along with measures to ensure that all children receive necessary health care.

Changes in Opioid Overdose Emergency Encounters Associated with Expansion of Wisconsin Medicaid to Childless Adults in Poverty.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to measure changes in the payer mix and incidence of emergency department (ED) opioid-related overdose encounters after an April 2014 expansion of Medicaid to childless adults led to a 43% increase in Medicaid coverage for men and 8% for women statewide. METHOD: We explored two competing hypotheses using data visualization and comparative interrupted time-series analysis (CITS): (a) expanded eligibility for Medicaid is associated with a change in payer mix only and (b) sociodemographic groups that gained Medicaid eligibility were more likely to use ED services for opioid overdose. Data included encounters at all Wisconsin nonfederal hospitals over 23 quarters from 2010 to 2015 and American Community Survey estimates of pre- and post-policy Medicaid eligibility by sex and age. RESULTS: We found an increase in the share of opioid-related ED visits covered by Medicaid for men and women ages 19-29 and for men ages 30-49 following the expansion. The number of visits increased substantially in April 2014 for men ages 30-49, with Medicaid-covered visits driving this result. We found little evidence of an increase in overall visits for other age groups for either men or women. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between Medicaid expansion and opioid ED use is complex. Changes in case mix and increased access to care likely both play a role in the overall increase in these ED visits. Being uninsured may be an important barrier to seeking emergency care for opioid-related overdoses.

Improving Hospitalized Children's Sleep by Reducing Excessive Overnight Blood Pressure Monitoring.

BACKGROUND: Although required for healing, sleep is often disrupted during hospitalization. Blood pressure (BP) monitoring can be especially disruptive for pediatric inpatients and has few clinical indications. Our aim in this pilot study was to reduce unnecessary overnight BP monitoring and improve sleep for pediatric inpatients. METHODS: The intervention in June 2018 involved clinician education sessions and updated electronic health record (EHR) orders that enabled the forgoing of overnight BP checks. The postintervention period from July 2018 to May 2019 examined patient-caregiver surveys as outcome measures. These surveys measured inpatient sleep and overnight disruptions and were adopted from validated surveys: the Patient Sleep Questionnaire, expanded Brief Infant Sleep Questionnaire, and Potential Hospital Sleep Disruptions and Noises Questionnaire. Uptake of new sleep-friendly EHR orders was a process measure. Reported patient care escalations served as a balancing measure. RESULTS: Interrupted time series analysis of EHR orders (npre = 493; npost = 1472) showed an increase in intercept for the proportion of patients forgoing overnight BP postintervention (+50.7%; 95% confidence interval 41.2% to 60.3%; P < .001) and a subsequent decrease in slope each week (-0.16%; 95% confidence interval -0.32% to -0.01%; P = .037). Statistical process control of surveys (npre = 263; npost = 131) showed a significant increase in sleep duration for patients older than 2, and nighttime disruptions by clinicians decreased by 19% (P < .001). Annual estimated cost savings were $15 842.01. No major adverse events in patients forgoing BP were reported. CONCLUSIONS: A pilot study combining EHR changes and clinician education safely decreased overnight BP checks, increased pediatric inpatient sleep duration, and reduced nighttime disruptions by clinicians.

The heterogeneous effect of marijuana decriminalization policy on arrest rates in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2009-2018.

BACKGROUND: Marijuana decriminalization holds potential to reduce health inequities. However, limited attention has focused on assessing the impact of decriminalization policies across different populations. This study aims to determine the differential effect of a marijuana decriminalization policy change in Philadelphia, PA on marijuana arrests by demographic characteristics. METHODS: Using a comparative interrupted time series design, we assessed whether the onset of marijuana decriminalization in Philadelphia County was associated with reduction in arrests rates from 2009 to 2018 compared to Dauphin County. Stratified models were used to describe the differential impact of decriminalization across different demographic populations. RESULTS: Compared to Dauphin, the mean arrest rate for all marijuana-related crimes in Philadelphia declined by 19.9 per 100,000 residents (34.9% reduction), 17.1 per 100,000 residents (43.1% reduction) for possession, and 2.8 per 100,000 resident (15.9% reduction) for sales/manufacturing. Arrest rates also differed by demographic characteristics post-decriminalization. Notably, African Americans had a greater absolute/relative reduction in possession-based arrests than Whites. However, relative reductions for sales/manufacturing-based arrests was nearly 3 times lower for African Americans. Males had greater absolute/relative reduction for possession-based arrests, but lower relative reduction for sales/manufacturing-based arrests compared to females. There were no substantial absolute differences by age; however, youths (vs. adults) experienced higher relative reduction in arrest rates. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest an absolute/relative reduction for possession-based arrests post-decriminalization; however, relative disparities in sales/manufacturing-based arrests, specifically for African Americans, increased. More consideration towards the heterogeneous effect of marijuana decriminalization are needed given the unintended harmful effects of arrest on already vulnerable populations.

The Effects of Alcohol Warning Labels on Population Alcohol Consumption: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Alcohol Sales in Yukon, Canada.

OBJECTIVE: There is limited evidence that alcohol warning labels (AWLs) affect population alcohol consumption. New evidence-informed AWLs were introduced in the sole government-run liquor store in Whitehorse, Yukon, that included a cancer warning (Ca), low-risk drinking guidelines (LRDGs) and standard drink (SD) messages. These temporarily replaced previous pregnancy warning labels. We test if the intervention was associated with reduced alcohol consumption. METHOD: An interrupted time series study was designed to evaluate the effects of the AWLs on consumption for 28 months before and 14 months after starting the intervention. Neighboring regions of Yukon and Northwest Territories served as control sites. About 300,000 labels were applied to 98% of alcohol containers sold in Whitehorse during the intervention. Multilevel regression analyses of per capita alcohol sales data for people age 15 years and older were performed to examine consumption levels in the intervention and control sites before, during, and after the AWLs were introduced. Models were adjusted for demographic and economic characteristics over time and region. RESULTS: Total per capita retail alcohol sales in Whitehorse decreased by 6.31% (t test p < .001) during the intervention. Per capita sales of labeled products decreased by 6.59% (t test p < .001), whereas sales of unlabeled products increased by 6.91% (t test p < .05). There was a still larger reduction occurring after the intervention when pregnancy warning labels were reintroduced (-9.97% and -10.29%, t test p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Applying new AWLs was associated with reduced population alcohol consumption. The results are consistent with an accumulating impact of the addition of varying and highly visible labels with impactful messages.

Impact of the EMA/FDA alerts on the use of effective contraceptive method in women of childbearing age undergoing valproic acid treatment in a long-stay psychiatric center.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate the impact of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and Food Drug and Administration (FDA) alerts on the use of effective contraceptive method in women of childbearing age undergoing valproic acid treatment in a long-stay psychiatric center. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An interrupted time-series analysis of women of childbearing age admitted in a long-stay psychiatric center (2013-2019), according to the EMA/FDA restrictions dates (October 2014 and February 2018). RESULTS: Of the 82 cases included, 50 (61.0%) had an 'off-label' prescription. The percentage of cases with a contraceptive method before October 2014 (31.6%) increased to 61.5% after October 2014, p = 0.004. Women with an 'off-label' prescription after 2018 were more likely to use a contraceptive method than those before 2014, and there were not statistically significant differences in women with an 'under indication' prescription. CONCLUSIONS: The recent regulatory restrictions on the use of a contraceptive method had a positive effect, mainly in women with an 'off-label' prescription. No effect was seen in women with epilepsy, probably because the intervention had started long before.

Impact of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion on Access to Care and Hospitalization Charges for Lupus Patients.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of the Affordable Care Act on preventable hospitalizations and associated charges for patients living with systemic lupus erythematosus, before and after Medicaid expansion. METHODS: A retrospective, quasi-experimental study, using an interrupted time series research design, was conducted to analyze data for 8 states from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project state inpatient databases. Lupus hospitalizations with a principal diagnosis of predetermined ambulatory-care sensitive (ACS) conditions were the unit of primary analysis. The primary outcome variable was access to care measured by preventable hospitalizations caused by an ACS condition. RESULTS: There were 204,150 lupus hospitalizations in the final analysis, with the majority (53.5%) of lupus hospitalizations in states that did not expand Medicaid. In unadjusted analysis, Medicaid expansion states had significantly lower odds of having preventable lupus hospitalizations (odds ratio [OR] 0.958); however, after adjusting for several covariates, Medicaid expansion states had increased odds of having preventable lupus hospitalizations (OR 1.302). Adjusted analysis showed that those individuals with increased age, public insurance (Medicare or Medicaid), no health insurance, rural residence, or low income had significantly higher odds of having a preventable lupus hospitalization. States that expanded Medicaid had $523 significantly more charges than states that did not expand Medicaid. Older age and rural residence were associated with significantly higher charges. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that while Medicaid expansion increased health insurance coverage, it did not address other issues related to access to care that could reduce the number of preventable hospitalizations.

Reduction in Upper Limb Joint Surgery Among Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis Using Danish Health Care Registers.

OBJECTIVE: Joint replacement surgery is a proxy of severe joint damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the introduction of biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) on the incidence rate (IR) of upper limb joint replacements among newly diagnosed RA patients. METHODS: Using the Danish National Patient Register, patients with incident RA from 1996-2012 were identified. Each patient was matched on age, sex, and municipality, with up to 10 general population controls. The age- and sex-standardized 5-year IR per 1,000 person-years of a composite outcome of any first joint replacement of the finger, wrist, elbow, or shoulder was calculated, and an interrupted time-series analysis was undertaken to investigate trends and changes of the IR in the pre-bDMARD (1996-2001) and the bDMARD eras (2003-2012), with a 1-year lag period in 2002. RESULTS: In total, 18,654 incident patients with RA were identified (mean age 57.6 years, 70.5% women). The IR of joint replacements among patients with RA was stable at 2.46 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.96, 2.96) from 1996 to 2001 but started to decrease from 2003 onwards (-0.08 per 1,000 person-years annually [95% CI -0.20, 0.02]). Compared with patients with RA, the IR among controls in 1996 was 1/17 and increased continuously throughout the study period. CONCLUSION: The IR of upper limb joint replacements started to decrease among patients with RA from 2002 onwards, whereas it increased among controls. Our results suggest an association between the introduction of bDMARDs and a lower need of joint replacements among patients with RA.

Three Quality Improvement Initiatives and Performance of Rheumatoid Arthritis Disease Activity Measures in Electronic Health Records: Results From an Interrupted Time Series Study.

OBJECTIVE: Applying treat-to-target strategies in the care of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is critical for improving outcomes, yet electronic health records (EHRs) have few features to facilitate this goal. We undertook this study to evaluate the effect of 3 health information technology (health-IT) initiatives on the performance of RA disease activity measures and outcomes in an academic rheumatology clinic. METHODS: We implemented the 3 following initiatives designed to facilitate performance of the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI): an EHR flowsheet to input scores, peer performance reports, and an EHR SmartForm including a CDAI calculator. We performed an interrupted time-series trial to assess effects on the proportion of RA visits with a documented CDAI. Mean CDAI scores before and after the last initiative were compared using t-tests. Additionally, we measured physician satisfaction with the initiatives. RESULTS: We included data from 995 patients with 8,040 encounters between 2012 and 2017. Over this period, electronic capture of CDAI scores increased from 0% to 64%. Performance remained stable after peer reporting and the SmartForm were introduced. We observed no meaningful changes in disease activity levels. However, physician satisfaction increased after SmartForm implementation. CONCLUSION: Modifications to the EHR, provider culture, and clinical workflows effectively improved capture of RA disease activity scores and physician satisfaction, but parallel gains in disease activity levels were missing. This study illustrates how a series of health-IT initiatives can evolve to enable sustained changes in practice. However, capture of RA outcomes alone may not be sufficient to improve levels of disease activity without a comprehensive treat-to-target program.

Scaling-up implementation in community hospitals: a multisite interrupted time series design of the Mobilization of Vulnerable Elders (MOVE) program in Alberta.

BACKGROUND: As the population ages, older hospitalized patients are at increased risk for hospital-acquired morbidity. The Mobilization of Vulnerable Elders (MOVE) program is an evidence-informed early mobilization intervention that was previously evaluated in Ontario, Canada. The program was effective at improving mobilization rates and decreasing length of stay in academic hospitals. The aim of this study was to scale-up the program and conduct a replication study evaluating the impact of the evidence-informed mobilization intervention on various units in community hospitals within a different Canadian province. METHODS: The MOVE program was tailored to the local context at four community hospitals in Alberta, Canada. The study population was patients aged 65 years and older who were admitted to medicine, surgery, rehabilitation and intensive care units between July 2015 and July 2016. The primary outcome was patient mobilization measured by conducting visual audits twice a week, three times a day. The secondary outcomes included hospital length of stay obtained from hospital administrative data, and perceptions of the intervention assessed through a qualitative assessment. Using an interrupted time series design, the intervention was evaluated over three time periods (pre-intervention, during, and post-intervention). RESULTS: A total of 3601 patients [mean age 80.1 years (SD = 8.4 years)] were included in the overall analysis. There was a significant increase in mobilization at the end of the intervention period compared to pre-intervention, with 6% more patients out of bed (95% confidence interval (CI) 1, 11; p-value = 0.0173). A decreasing trend in median length of stay was observed, where patients on average stayed an estimated 3.59 fewer days (95%CI -15.06, 7.88) during the intervention compared to pre-intervention period. CONCLUSIONS: MOVE is a low-cost, effective and adaptable intervention that improves mobilization in older hospitalized patients. This intervention has been replicated and scaled up across various units and hospital settings.

Effect of a Cognitive Aid on Reducing Sugammadex Use and Associated Costs: A Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The authors observed increased pharmaceutical costs after the introduction of sugammadex in our institution. After a request to decrease sugammadex use, the authors implemented a cognitive aid to help choose between reversal agents. The purpose of this study was to determine if sugammadex use changed after cognitive aid implementation. The authors' hypothesis was that sugammadex use and associated costs would decrease. METHODS: A cognitive aid suggesting reversal agent doses based on train-of-four count was developed. It was included with each dispensed reversal agent set and in medication dispensing cabinet bins containing reversal agents. An interrupted time series analysis was performed using pharmaceutical invoices and anesthesia records. The primary outcome was the number of sugammadex administrations. Secondary outcomes included total pharmaceutical acquisition costs of neuromuscular blocking drugs and reversal agents, adverse respiratory events, emergence duration, and number of neuromuscular blocking drug administrations. RESULTS: Before cognitive aid implementation, the number of sugammadex administrations was increasing at a monthly rate of 20 per 1,000 general anesthetics (P < 0.001). Afterward, the monthly rate was 4 per 1,000 general anesthetics (P = 0.361). One month after cognitive aid implementation, the number of sugammadex administrations decreased by 281 per 1,000 general anesthetics (95% CI, 228 to 333, P < 0.001). In the final study month, there were 509 fewer sugammadex administrations than predicted per 1,000 general anesthetics (95% CI, 366 to 653; P < 0.0001), and total pharmaceutical acquisition costs per 1,000 general anesthetics were $11,947 less than predicted (95% CI, $4,043 to $19,851; P = 0.003). There was no significant change in adverse respiratory events, emergence duration, or administrations of rocuronium, vecuronium, or atracurium. In the final month, there were 75 more suxamethonium administrations than predicted per 1,000 general anesthetics (95% CI, 32 to 119; P = 0.0008). CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive aid implementation to choose between reversal agents was associated with a decrease in sugammadex use and acquisition costs.

Estimating age-stratified influenza-associated invasive pneumococcal disease in England: A time-series model based on population surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Measures of the contribution of influenza to Streptococcus pneumoniae infections, both in the seasonal and pandemic setting, are needed to predict the burden of secondary bacterial infections in future pandemics to inform stockpiling. The magnitude of the interaction between these two pathogens has been difficult to quantify because both infections are mainly clinically diagnosed based on signs and symptoms; a combined viral-bacterial testing is rarely performed in routine clinical practice; and surveillance data suffer from confounding problems common to all ecological studies. We proposed a novel multivariate model for age-stratified disease incidence, incorporating contact patterns and estimating disease transmission within and across groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used surveillance data from England over the years 2009 to 2017. Influenza infections were identified through the virological testing of samples taken from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness (ILI) within the sentinel scheme run by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP). Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases were routinely reported to Public Health England (PHE) by all the microbiology laboratories included in the national surveillance system. IPD counts at week t, conditional on the previous time point t-1, were assumed to be negative binomially distributed. Influenza counts were linearly included in the model for the mean IPD counts along with an endemic component describing some seasonal background and an autoregressive component mimicking pneumococcal transmission. Using age-specific counts, Akaike information criterion (AIC)-based model selection suggested that the best fit was obtained when the endemic component was expressed as a function of observed temperature and rainfall. Pneumococcal transmission within the same age group was estimated to explain 33.0% (confidence interval [CI] 24.9%-39.9%) of new cases in the elderly, whereas 50.7% (CI 38.8%-63.2%) of incidence in adults aged 15-44 years was attributed to transmission from another age group. The contribution of influenza on IPD during the 2009 pandemic also appeared to vary greatly across subgroups, being highest in school-age children and adults (18.3%, CI 9.4%-28.2%, and 6.07%, CI 2.83%-9.76%, respectively). Other viral infections, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and rhinovirus, also seemed to have an impact on IPD: RSV contributed 1.87% (CI 0.89%-3.08%) to pneumococcal infections in the 65+ group, whereas 2.14% (CI 0.87%-3.57%) of cases in the group of 45- to 64-year-olds were attributed to rhinovirus. The validity of this modelling strategy relies on the assumption that viral surveillance adequately represents the true incidence of influenza in the population, whereas the small numbers of IPD cases observed in the younger age groups led to significant uncertainty around some parameter estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates suggested that a pandemic wave of influenza A/H1N1 with comparable severity to the 2009 pandemic could have a modest impact on school-age children and adults in terms of IPD and a small to negligible impact on infants and the elderly. The seasonal impact of other viruses such as RSV and rhinovirus was instead more important in the older population groups.

Can the effects of the mobilization of vulnerable elders in Ontario (MOVE ON) implementation be replicated in new settings: an interrupted time series design.

BACKGROUND: Bed rest for older hospitalized patients places them at risk for hospital-acquired morbidity. We previously evaluated an early mobilization intervention and found it to be effective at improving mobilization rates and decreasing length of stay on internal medicine units. The aim of this study was to conduct a replication study evaluating the impact of the evidence-informed mobilization intervention on surgery, psychiatry, medicine, and cardiology inpatient units. METHODS: A multi-component early mobilization intervention was tailored to the local context at seven hospitals in Ontario, Canada. The primary outcome was patient mobilization measured by conducting visual audits twice a week, three times a day. Secondary outcomes were hospital length of stay and discharge destination, which were obtained from hospital decision support data. The study population was patients aged 65 years and older who were admitted to surgery, psychiatry, medicine, and cardiology inpatient units between March and August 2014. Using an interrupted time series design, the intervention was evaluated over three time periods-pre-intervention, during, and post-intervention. RESULTS: A total of 3098 patients [mean age 78.46 years (SD 8.38)] were included in the overall analysis. There was a significant increase in mobility immediately after the intervention period compared to pre-intervention with a slope change of 1.91 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74-3.08, P-value = 0.0014). A decreasing trend in median length of stay was observed in the majority of the participating sites. Overall, a median length of stay of 26.24 days (95% CI 23.67-28.80) was observed pre-intervention compared to 23.81 days (95% CI 20.13-27.49) during the intervention and 24.69 days (95% CI 22.43-26.95) post-intervention. The overall decrease in median length of stay was associated with the increase in mobility across the sites. CONCLUSIONS: MOVE increased mobilization and these results were replicated across surgery, psychiatry, medicine, and cardiology inpatient units.

Prescribing Trends of Codeine-containing Medications and Other Opioids in Primary Care After A Regulatory Decision: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In 2014, the Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA) amended the summary of product characteristics of codeine-containing medications limiting their use for maximum three days. This study attempted to clarify the impact of AIFA intervention on prescribing trends and appropriateness of use of codeine-containing medications and other opioids. METHODS: Using the Health Search Database, a quasi-experimental interrupted time series analysis was conducted to evaluate changes in prescribing trends and appropriateness of use of codeine-containing medications and opioids between 2013 and 2015. RESULTS: Prescribing trends of codeine-containing medications significantly decreased (on average, - 352 days of treatment per month of observation), while long-acting opioids (LAOs) had an overall increase. Trends of inappropriate prescriptions significantly increased for two LAOs (i.e. tapentadol, naloxone-oxycodone), both before and after AIFA intervention. CONCLUSION: The use of paracetamol-codeine combination was effectively decreased in Italy because of AIFA intervention. Instead, prescriptions of tapentadol and oxycodone-naloxone stably increased over the study period irrespective of regulatory intervention. Given that the choice of the most appropriate opioid therapy is not straightforward, especially in elderly and/or comorbid patients, general practitioners should consider carefully alternative therapies on the bases of regulatory interventions.

The association between heatwaves and risk of hospitalization in Brazil: A nationwide time series study between 2000 and 2015.

BACKGROUND: To our knowledge, no study has assessed the association between heatwaves and risk of hospitalization and how it may change over time in Brazil. We quantified the heatwave-hospitalization association in Brazil during 2000-2015. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Daily data on hospitalization and temperature were collected from 1,814 cities (>78% of the national population) in the hottest five consecutive months during 2000-2015. Twelve types of heatwaves were defined with daily mean temperatures of ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, or 97.5th percentiles of year-round temperature and durations of ≥2, 3, or 4 consecutive days. The city-specific association was estimated using a quasi-Poisson regression with constrained distributed lag model and then pooled at the national level using random-effect meta-analysis. Stratified analyses were performed by five regions, sex, 10 age groups, and nine cause categories. The temporal change in the heatwave-hospitalization association was assessed using a time-varying constrained distributed lag model. Of the 58,400,682 hospitalizations (59% women), 24%, 34%, 21%, and 19% of cases were aged <20, 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 years, respectively. The city-specific year-round daily mean temperatures were 23.5 ± 2.8 °C on average, varying from 26.8 ± 1.8 °C for the 90th percentile to 28.0 ± 1.6 °C for the 97.5th percentile. We observed that the risk of hospitalization was most pronounced for heatwaves characterized by high daily temperatures and long durations across Brazil, except for the minimal association in the north (the hottest region). After controlling for temperature, the association remained for severe heatwaves in the south and southeast (cold regions). Children 0-9 years, the elderly ≥70 years, and admissions for perinatal conditions were most strongly associated with heatwaves. Over the study period, the strength of the heatwave-hospitalization association declined substantially in the south, while an apparent increase was observed in the southeast. The main limitations of this study included the lack of data on individual temperature exposure and measured air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: There are geographic, demographic, cause-specific, and temporal variations in the heatwave-hospitalization associations across the Brazilian population. Considering the projected increase in frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves, future strategies should be developed, such as building early warning systems, to reduce the health risk associated with heatwaves in Brazil.

Associations of the Stoptober smoking cessation program with information seeking for smoking cessation: A Google trends study.

INTRODUCTION: The national smoking cessation program Stoptober was introduced in October 2012 in England and in October 2014 in the Netherlands. There is little evidence on the extent to which the Stoptober program has an impact on smoking-related outcomes at national levels. We aimed to measure the magnitude and timing of the associations of the Dutch Stoptober program with searching for smoking cessation on the internet. METHODS: An interrupted time series analysis was used on Google search queries. Data were seasonally adjusted and analyzed using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling. To examine the magnitude and timing of the program, nine potential intervention periods around early October were analyzed simultaneously, with control for national tobacco control policies. Parallel analyses were made of Belgium as a control group. RESULTS: The 2014-2016 Dutch Stoptober programs were associated with a significant increase in relative search volume (RSV) in the week the challenge starts (11%, 95% CI: 1-21), the next week (22%, 95% CI: 12-33) and the week afterward (17%, 95% CI: 8-27). A smaller, non-significant increase was observed in the two weeks before the challenge. No substantial increases were found in the Belgian control group. CONCLUSIONS: In the Netherlands, the Stoptober program was associated with a substantial short-term increase in information seeking for smoking cessation. This suggests that Stoptober may be able to affect smoking-related outcomes in national populations at large.

Research Protocol to Evaluate the Effects of Alcohol Policy Changes in Lithuania.

AIMS: To point out the importance for public health to evaluate the past policy changes (2016-2018) in Lithuania. To present a research protocol to conduct this evaluation. SHORT SUMMARY: The staggered implementation of key alcohol policies in Lithuania over the past two years offers the possibility to evaluate 'best buys' for alcohol policies for this country. Lithuania is the only country where all 'best buys' were implemented over a short period of time, so this evaluation will be unique. METHODS: Quasi-experimental design based on interrupted time-series analysis of monthly routine statistics of morbidity and mortality indicators as well as key variables on the pathway between alcohol exposure and health outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: For the public health community, results of the evaluation of these policy changes will be of critical importance.

Supermarket policies on less-healthy food at checkouts: Natural experimental evaluation using interrupted time series analyses of purchases.

BACKGROUND: In response to public concerns and campaigns, some United Kingdom supermarkets have implemented policies to reduce less-healthy food at checkouts. We explored the effects of these policies on purchases of less-healthy foods commonly displayed at checkouts. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a natural experimental design and two data sources providing complementary and unique information. We analysed data on purchases of small packages of common, less-healthy, checkout foods (sugary confectionary, chocolate, and potato crisps) from 2013 to 2017 from nine UK supermarkets (Aldi, Asda, Co-op, Lidl, M&S, Morrisons, Sainsbury's, Tesco, and Waitrose). Six supermarkets implemented a checkout food policy between 2013 and 2017 and were considered intervention stores; the remainder were comparators. Firstly, we studied the longitudinal association between implementation of checkout policies and purchases taken home. We used data from a large (n ≈ 30,000) household purchase panel of food brought home to conduct controlled interrupted time series analyses of purchases of less-healthy common checkout foods from 12 months before to 12 months after implementation. We conducted separate analyses for each intervention supermarket, using others as comparators. We synthesised results across supermarkets using random effects meta-analyses. Implementation of a checkout food policy was associated with an immediate reduction in four-weekly purchases of common checkout foods of 157,000 (72,700-242,800) packages per percentage market share-equivalent to a 17.3% reduction. This decrease was sustained at 1 year with 185,100 (121,700-248,500) fewer packages purchased per 4 weeks per percentage market share-equivalent to a 15.5% reduction. The immediate, but not sustained, effect was robust to sensitivity analysis. Secondly, we studied the cross-sectional association between checkout food policies and purchases eaten without being taken home. We used data from a smaller (n ≈ 7,500) individual purchase panel of food bought and eaten 'on the go'. We conducted cross-sectional analyses comparing purchases of common checkout foods in 2016-2017 from supermarkets with and without checkout food policies. There were 76.4% (95% confidence interval 48.6%-89.1%) fewer annual purchases of less-healthy common checkout foods from supermarkets with versus without checkout food policies. The main limitations of the study are that we do not know where in the store purchases were selected and cannot determine the effect of changes in purchases on consumption. Other interventions may also have been responsible for the results seen. CONCLUSIONS: There is a potential impact of checkout food polices on purchases. Voluntary supermarket-led activities may have public health benefits.

Google Searches for "Cheap Cigarettes" Spike at Tax Increases: Evidence from an Algorithm to Detect Spikes in Time Series Data.

Introduction: Online cigarette dealers have lower prices than brick-and-mortar retailers and advertise tax-free status.1-8 Previous studies show smokers search out these online alternatives at the time of a cigarette tax increase.9,10 However, these studies rely upon researchers' decision to consider a specific date and preclude the possibility that researchers focus on the wrong date. The purpose of this study is to introduce an unbiased methodology to the field of observing search patterns and to use this methodology to determine whether smokers search Google for "cheap cigarettes" at cigarette tax increases and, if so, whether the increased level of searches persists. Methods: Publicly available data from Google Trends is used to observe standardized search volumes for the term, "cheap cigarettes". Seasonal Hybrid Extreme Studentized Deviate and E-Divisive with Means tests were performed to observe spikes and mean level shifts in search volume. Results: Of the twelve cigarette tax increases studied, ten showed spikes in searches for "cheap cigarettes" within two weeks of the tax increase. However, the mean level shifts did not occur for any cigarette tax increase. Conclusion: Searches for "cheap cigarettes" spike around the time of a cigarette tax increase, but the mean level of searches does not shift in response to a tax increase. The SHESD and EDM tests are unbiased methodologies that can be used to identify spikes and mean level shifts in time series data without an a priori date to be studied. SHESD and EDM affirm spikes in interest are related to tax increases. Implications: • Applies improved statistical techniques (SHESD and EDM) to Google search data related to cigarettes, reducing bias and increasing power • Contributes to the body of evidence that state and federal tax increases are associated with spikes in searches for cheap cigarettes and may be good dates for increased online health messaging related to tobacco.