Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital death in cirrhotic patients with acute kidney injury.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) in order to identify patients with a high risk of in-hospital death early. METHODS: This study collected data on cirrhotic patients with AKI from 2008 to 2019 using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify confounding factors related to in-hospital mortality, which were then integrated into the nomogram. The concordance index (C-Index) was used to evaluate the accuracy of the model predictions. The area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the predictive performance and clinical utility of the nomogram. RESULTS: The final study population included 886 cirrhotic patients with AKI, and 264 (29.8%) died in the hospital. After multivariate logistic regression, age, gender, cerebrovascular disease, heart rate, respiration rate, temperature, oxygen saturation, hemoglobin, blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, international normalized ratio, bilirubin, urine volume, and sequential organ failure assessment score were predictive factors of in-hospital mortality. In addition, the nomogram showed good accuracy in estimating the in-hospital mortality of patients. The calibration plots showed the best agreement with the actual presence of in-hospital mortality in patients. In addition, the AUC and DCA curves showed that the nomogram has good prediction accuracy and clinical value. CONCLUSIONS: We have created a prognostic nomogram for predicting in-hospital death in cirrhotic patients with AKI, which may facilitate timely intervention to improve prognosis in these patients.

Circulating fatty acids and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and chronic liver disease mortality in the UK Biobank.

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-based plasma fatty acids are objective biomarkers of many diseases. Herein, we aim to explore the associations of NMR-based plasma fatty acids with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and chronic liver disease (CLD) mortality in 252,398 UK Biobank participants. Here we show plasma levels of n-3 poly-unsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and n-6 PUFA are negatively associated with the risk of incident HCC [HRQ4vsQ1: 0.48 (95% CI: 0.33-0.69) and 0.48 (95% CI: 0.28-0.81), respectively] and CLD mortality [HRQ4vsQ1: 0.21 (95% CI: 0.13-0.33) and 0.15 (95% CI: 0.08-0.30), respectively], whereas plasma levels of saturated fatty acids are positively associated with these outcomes [HRQ4vsQ1: 3.55 (95% CI: 2.25-5.61) for HCC and 6.34 (95% CI: 3.68-10.92) for CLD mortality]. Furthermore, fibrosis stage significantly modifies the associations between PUFA and CLD mortality. This study contributes to the limited prospective evidence on the associations between plasma-specific fatty acids and end-stage liver outcomes.

Impact of liver fibrosis on COVID-19 in-hospital mortality in Southern Italy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: SARS-Cov-2 infection manifests as a wide spectrum of clinical presentation and even now, despite the global spread of the vaccine, contagiousness is still elevated. The aim of the study was the evaluation of the impact of liver fibrosis assessed by FIB-4 and liver impairment, assessed by cytolysis indices, on intrahospital mortality in COVID-19 subjects. METHODS: This is a retrospective observational cohort study, which involved 23 COVID Hospital Units in Campania Region, Italy. Exposure variables were collected during hospital admission and at discharge. According to FIB-4 values, we subdivided the overall population in three groups (FIB-4<1.45; 1.453.25), respectively group 1,2,3. RESULTS: At the end of the study, 938 individuals had complete discharged/dead data. At admission, 428 patients were in group 1 (45.6%), 387 in group 2 (41.3%) and 123 in group 3 (13.1%). Among them, 758 (81%) subjects were discharged, while the remaining 180 (19%) individuals died. Multivariable Cox's regression model showed a significant association between mortality risk and severity of FIB-4 stages (group 3 vs group 1, HR 2.12, 95%CI 1.38-3.28, p<0.001). Moreover, Kaplan-Meier analysis described a progressive and statistically significant difference (p<0.001 Log-rank test) in mortality according to FIB-4 groups. Among discharged subjects, 507 showed a FIB-4<1.45 (66.9%, group 1), 182 a value 1.453.25 (9.0%, group 3). Among dead subjects, 42 showed a FIB-4<1.45 (23.3%, group 1), 62 a value 1.453.25 (42.3%, group 3). CONCLUSIONS: FIB-4 value is significantly associated with intrahospital mortality of COVID-19 patients. During hospitalization, particularly in patients with worse outcomes, COVID-19 seems to increase the risk of acute progression of liver damage.

Frailty and transplant-free survival of patients with liver cirrhosis: A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a common condition among patients with liver cirrhosis. Nonetheless, its role in predicting liver transplant-free survival (TFS) remains unclear. AIM: This systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to elucidate the relationship between frailty and TFS in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: Cohort studies addressing the objective of this meta-analysis were extracted from PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed with the Cochrane Q test, and the I^2 statistic was estimated. Random-effect models, considering potential heterogeneity, were employed to combine the results. RESULTS: The meta-analysis encompassed 17 cohort studies involving 6273 patients with cirrhosis, of whom 1983 (31.6%) were classified as frail at baseline. The follow-up periods in the included studies ranged from 3 to 29 months, with an average duration of 11.5 months. The analysis revealed that frailty was significantly associated with a poor TFS (risk ratio [RR]: 2.07, 95% confidence interval: 1.72 to 2.50, p<0.001; I2 = 51%). Sensitivity analyses that sequentially omitted one dataset consistently supported these findings (RR: 1.95 to 2.17, p<0.05 in all cases). Subgroup analyses based on variables such as study design, mean age of patients, baseline Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, tool used for frailty evaluation, follow-up duration, and study quality score also yielded congruent results. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence suggests that frailty may be an independent risk factor for poor TFS in patients with liver cirrhosis, thus emphasizing the importance of early identification and management of frailty in this population.

Hepatic inflammation and fibrosis are profiles related to mid-term mortality in biopsy-proven MASLD: A multicenter study in Japan.

AIMS: A multi-stakeholder consensus has proposed MASLD (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease). We aimed to investigate the pathological findings related to the mid-term mortality of patients with biopsy-proven MASLD in Japan. METHODS: We enrolled 1349 patients with biopsy-proven MASLD. The observational period was 8010 person years. We evaluated independent factors associated with mortality in patients with MASLD by Cox regression analysis. We also investigated pathological profiles related to mortality in patients with MASLD using data-mining analysis. RESULTS: The prevalence of MASH and stage 3/4 fibrosis was observed in 65.6% and 17.4%, respectively. Forty-five patients with MASLD died. Of these, liver-related events were the most common cause at 40% (n = 18), followed by extrahepatic malignancies at 26.7% (n = 12). Grade 2/3 lobular inflammation and stage 3/4 fibrosis had a 1.9-fold and 1.8-fold risk of mortality, respectively. In the decision-tree analysis, the profiles with the worst prognosis were characterised by Grade 2/3 hepatic inflammation, along with advanced ballooning (grade 1/2) and fibrosis (stage 3/4). This profile showed a mortality at 8.3%. Furthermore, the random forest analysis identified that hepatic fibrosis and inflammation were the first and second responsible factors for the mid-term prognosis of patients with MASLD. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with biopsy-proven MASLD, the prevalence of MASH and advanced fibrosis was approximately 65% and 20%, respectively. The leading cause of mortality was liver-related events. Hepatic inflammation and fibrosis were significant factors influencing mid-term mortality. These findings highlight the importance of targeting inflammation and fibrosis in the management of patients with MASLD.

Bayesian network-based survival prediction model for patients having undergone post-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt for portal hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Portal hypertension (PHT), primarily induced by cirrhosis, manifests severe symptoms impacting patient survival. Although transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a critical intervention for managing PHT, it carries risks like hepatic encephalopathy, thus affecting patient survival prognosis. To our knowledge, existing prognostic models for post-TIPS survival in patients with PHT fail to account for the interplay among and collective impact of various prognostic factors on outcomes. Consequently, the development of an innovative modeling approach is essential to address this limitation. AIM: To develop and validate a Bayesian network (BN)-based survival prediction model for patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT having undergone TIPS. METHODS: The clinical data of 393 patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT who underwent TIPS surgery at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between January 2015 and May 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Variables were selected using Cox and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression methods, and a BN-based model was established and evaluated to predict survival in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT. RESULTS: Variable selection revealed the following as key factors impacting survival: age, ascites, hypertension, indications for TIPS, postoperative portal vein pressure (post-PVP), aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, total bilirubin, prealbumin, the Child-Pugh grade, and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. Based on the above-mentioned variables, a BN-based 2-year survival prognostic prediction model was constructed, which identified the following factors to be directly linked to the survival time: age, ascites, indications for TIPS, concurrent hypertension, post-PVP, the Child-Pugh grade, and the MELD score. The Bayesian information criterion was 3589.04, and 10-fold cross-validation indicated an average log-likelihood loss of 5.55 with a standard deviation of 0.16. The model's accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score were 0.90, 0.92, 0.97, and 0.95 respectively, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve being 0.72. CONCLUSION: This study successfully developed a BN-based survival prediction model with good predictive capabilities. It offers valuable insights for treatment strategies and prognostic evaluations in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.

Development of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and sepsis.

In this study, we aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with cirrhosis and sepsis, establish and validate the nomogram. This retrospective study included patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis and sepsis in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV). Models were compared by the area under the curve (AUC), integrated discriminant improvement (IDI), net reclassification index (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA). A total of 1,696 patients with cirrhosis and sepsis were included in the final cohort. Our final model included the following 9 variables: age, heartrate, total bilirubin (TBIL), glucose, sodium, anion gap (AG), fungal infections, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressin. The nomogram were constructed based on these variables. The AUC values of the nomograms were 0.805 (95% CI 0.776-0.833), which provided significantly higher discrimination compared to that of SOFA score [0.684 (95% CI 0.647-0.720)], MELD-Na [0.672 (95% CI 0.636-0.709)] and ABIC [0.674(95% CI 0.638-0.710)]. We established the first nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and sepsis based on these factors. This nomogram can performs well and facilitates clinicians to identify people at high risk of in-hospital mortality.

Association of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction with inflammatory activity, renal dysfunction, and liver-related mortality in patients with cirrhosis and ascites.

Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) is the predominant cardiac abnormality in cirrhosis. We investigated the association of LVDD with systemic inflammation and its impact on renal function, occurrence of hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) and survival in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. We prospectively enrolled 215 patients with cirrhosis and ascites. We evaluated the diagnosis and grading of LVDD by Doppler echocardiography, inflammatory markers, systemic hemodynamics, vasoactive factors, radioisotope-assessed renal function and blood flow, HRS development and liver-related mortality. LVDD was diagnosed in 142 (66%) patients [grade 2/3: n  = 61 (43%)]. Serum lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP), plasma renin activity (PRA) and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) were independently associated with the presence of grade 2/3 LVDD and the severity of diastolic dysfunction. Serum tumor necrosis factor-α, cardiac output and plasma noradrenaline were also independently associated with the presence of grade 2/3 LVDD. The diastolic function marker E / e ' was strongly correlated with serum LBP ( r  = 0.731; P  < 0.001), PRA ( r  = 0.714; P  < 0.001) and GFR ( r  = -0.609; P  < 0.001) among patients with LVDD. The 5-year risk of HRS development and death was significantly higher in patients with grade 2/3 LVDD compared to those with grade 1 (35.5 vs. 14.4%; P  = 0.01 and 53.3 vs. 28.2%; P  = 0.03, respectively). The occurrence and severity of LVDD in patients with cirrhosis and ascites is closely related to inflammatory activity. Advanced LVDD is associated with baseline circulatory and renal dysfunction, favoring HRS development, and increased mortality.

Disparities among ethnic groups in mortality and outcomes among adults with MASLD: A multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the leading cause of chronic liver disease and 10%-20% occurs in lean individuals. There is little data in the literature regarding outcomes in an ethnically-diverse patient populations with MASLD. Thus, we aim to investigate the natural history and ethnic disparities of MASLD patients in a diverse population, and stratified by body mass index categories. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective multicenter study on patients with MASLD at the Banner Health System from 2012 to 2022. Main outcomes included mortality and incidence of cirrhosis, cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus (DM), liver-related events (LREs), and cancer. We used competing risk and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis for outcome modelling. RESULTS: A total of 51 452 (cross-sectional cohort) and 37 027 (longitudinal cohort) patients were identified with 9.6% lean. The cohort was 63.33% European ancestry, 27.96% Hispanic ancestry, 3.45% African ancestry, and 2.31% Native American/Alaskan ancestry. Median follow-up was 45.8 months. After adjusting for confounders, compared to European individuals, Hispanic and Native American/Alaskan patients had higher prevalence of cirrhosis and DM, and individuals of Hispanic, African, and Native American/Alaskan ancestry had higher mortality and incidence of LREs and DM. Lean patients had higher mortality and incidence of LREs compared with non-lean patients. CONCLUSION: Native American/Alaskan, Hispanic, and African patients had higher mortality and incidence of LREs and DM compared with European patients. Further studies to explore the underlying disparities and intervention to prevent LREs in lean patients, particularly several ethnic groups, may improve clinical outcomes.

Surgical outcomes and survival following esophagectomy for squamous cell carcinoma with or without liver cirrhosis: retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) shares common risk factors with liver cirrhosis (LC). The influence of LC in patients with ESCC has not been fully investigated. This study aimed to investigate the postoperative and long-term survival outcomes of esophagectomy for ESCC according to LC presence. METHODS: Among patients who underwent curative-intent surgery for ESCC between 1994 and 2018, 121 patients with Child-Pugh class A LC and 2810 patients without LC were compared. RESULTS: Among the LC patients, 73 (60.3%) were diagnosed with LC before surgery and 48 (39.7%) were diagnosed intraoperatively. There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between patients with LC and those without LC. However, intraoperative blood loss was higher, and operation time, hospital stay, and ICU stay were longer in patients with LC than in those without LC. Moreover, the reoperation, 30-day morbidity (60.6 vs. 73.6%, P =0.006) and 90-day mortality (2.2 vs. 4.9%, P =0.049) were significantly higher in patients with LC. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was significantly higher in patients without LC than in those with LC. After adjusting the confounding variables, LC was an adverse risk factor of OS (hazard ratio 1.402, P =0.004). Among patients with LC, the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease score was related to the development of complications of grade more than III (odds ratio 1.459, P =0.013). CONCLUSION: ESCC patients with Child-Pugh class A LC have high incidences of postoperative morbidity and mortality, and poor OS. Thus, careful patient selection, meticulous operation, and careful postoperative care are needed.

Where you live matters: Area deprivation predicts poor survival and liver transplant waitlisting.

Social determinants of health (SDOH) are important predictors of poor clinical outcomes in chronic diseases, but their associations among the general cirrhosis population and liver transplantation (LT) are limited. We conducted a retrospective, multiinstitutional analysis of adult (≥18-years-old) patients with cirrhosis in metropolitan Chicago to determine the associations of poor neighborhood-level SDOH on decompensation complications, mortality, and LT waitlisting. Area deprivation index and covariates extracted from the American Census Survey were aspects of SDOH that were investigated. Among 15 101 patients with cirrhosis, the mean age was 57.2 years; 6414 (42.5%) were women, 6589 (43.6%) were non-Hispanic White, 3652 (24.2%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 2662 (17.6%) were Hispanic. Each quintile increase in area deprivation was associated with poor outcomes in decompensation (sHR [subdistribution hazard ratio] 1.07; 95% CI 1.05-1.10; P < .001), waitlisting (sHR 0.72; 95% CI 0.67-0.76; P < .001), and all-cause mortality (sHR 1.09; 95% CI 1.06-1.12; P < .001). Domains of SDOH associated with a lower likelihood of waitlisting and survival included low income, low education, poor household conditions, and social support (P < .001). Overall, patients with cirrhosis residing in poor neighborhood-level SDOH had higher decompensation, and mortality, and were less likely to be waitlisted for LT. Further exploration of structural barriers toward LT or optimizing health outcomes is warranted.

Societal costs and survival of patients with biopsy-verified non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: Danish nationwide register-based study.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Studies on the societal burden of patients with biopsy-confirmed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are sparse. This study examined this question, comparing NAFLD with matched reference groups. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nationwide Danish healthcare registers were used to include all patients (≥18 years) diagnosed with biopsy-verified NAFLD (1997-2021). Patients were classified as having simple steatosis or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with or without cirrhosis, and all matched with liver-disease free reference groups. Healthcare costs and labour market outcomes were compared from 5 years before to 11 years after diagnosis. Patients were followed for 25 years to analyse risk of disability insurance and death. RESULTS: 3,712 patients with biopsy-verified NASH (n = 1,030), simple steatosis (n = 1,540) or cirrhosis (n = 1,142) were identified. The average total costs in the year leading up to diagnosis was 4.1-fold higher for NASH patients than the reference group (EUR 6,318), 6.2-fold higher for cirrhosis patients and 3.1-fold higher for simple steatosis patients. In NASH, outpatient hospital contacts were responsible for 49 % of the excess costs (EUR 3,121). NASH patients had statistically significantly lower income than their reference group as early as five years before diagnosis until nine years after diagnosis, and markedly higher risk of becoming disability insurance recipients (HR: 4.37; 95 % CI: 3.17-6.02) and of death (HR: 2.42; 95 % CI: 1.80-3.25). CONCLUSIONS: NASH, simple steatosis and cirrhosis are all associated with substantial costs for the individual and the society with excess healthcare costs and poorer labour market outcomes.

Evaluating Mortality Outcomes, Transfusion Characteristics, and Risk Factors Associated With Cirrhotic Trauma Patients Undergoing Emergency Laparotomy Versus Non-Operative Management: A National Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) demonstrate significantly elevated mortality rates following a traumatic event. This study aims to examine and compare the clinical outcomes in adult trauma patients with pre-existing LC undergoing laparotomy or non-operative management (NOM). Additionally, the study aims to investigate various patient outcomes, including mortality rate based on transfusion needs and timing. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study utilized the American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Program Participant Use File (ACS-TQIP-PUF) 2017-21 to compare laparotomy vs NOM in adults (≥18 years) with pre-existing LC who presented to trauma facilities with isolated blunt solid organ abdominal injuries (Injury Severity Score ≥16, Abbreviated Injury Scale solid organ abdomen ≥3). RESULTS: Among 929 patients, 38.2% underwent laparotomy, while 61.7% received NOM. The in-hospital mortality rate was lower for patients who received NOM (52.3% vs 20.0%, P < .01). The risk of in-hospital mortality was significantly associated with laparotomy (OR 5.22, 95% CI: 2.06-13.18, P < .01) and sepsis (OR 99.50, 95% CI: 6.99-1415.28, P < .01). On average an increase in blood units in 4 hours was observed among those who experienced an in-hospital mortality (OR 5.65, 95% CI: 3.05-8.24, P < .01) and those who underwent laparotomy (OR 3.85, 95% CI: 1.36-6.34, P < .01). CONCLUSION: Trauma patients with moderate to severe isolated organ injury and Liver cirrhosis had significantly higher mortality rates, acute renal failure, whole blood units received, as well as longer ICU-LOS when undergoing laparotomy compared to non-operative management.

Prognostic Nutritional Index as a Prognostic Factor for Very Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Field factors play more important roles in predicting the outcomes of patients compared with tumor factors in early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the prognostic ability of noninvasive serum marker scores for hepatic fibrosis and liver functional reserve on very early-stage HCC is still not yet determined. We aimed to investigate the performance of these serum marker scores in predicting the prognoses of patients with very early-stage HCC. METHODS: A total of 446 patients with very early-stage HCC from 2012 to 2022 were retrospectively enrolled. Serum biomarkers and prognostic scores determining overall survival (OS) were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards model. We compared the Akaike information criterion among the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, EZ (easy)-ALBI score, modified ALBI score, fibrosis-4 score, and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio to determine the predictability on the OS. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 41.0 months (interquartile range 36.9-45.1 months), 81 patients died, with a 5-year OS rate of 71.0%. Among the noninvasive serum marker scores, PNI had the best performance in predicting the OS with the lowest Akaike information criterion (846.407) compared with other scores. Moreover, we stratified the patients into high-risk (PNI <45) and low-risk (PNI ≥45) groups. It showed that the 5-year OS rates were 83.4% and 60.8% in the low-risk and high-risk PNI groups, respectively ( P < 0.001). DISCUSSION: PNI had the best performance in predicting the OS for patients with very early-stage HCC.

Prediction of Mortality and Hepatic Encephalopathy after Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Placement: Baseline and Longitudinal Body Composition Measurement.

PURPOSE: To investigate effects of baseline and early longitudinal body composition changes on mortality and hepatic encephalopathy (HE) after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a case-control study with analysis of a TIPS registry (1995-2020) including data from patients with cirrhosis with computed tomography (CT) scans obtained within 1 month before and 3 months after TIPS. Core muscle area (CMA), macroscopic subcutaneous adipose tissue (mSAT), macroscopic visceral adipose tissue (mVAT) area, and muscle adiposity index (MAI) on CT were obtained. Multipredictor Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the effect of body composition variables on mortality or HE. RESULTS: In total, 280 patients (158 men; median age, 57.0 years; median Model for End-stage Liver Disease-sodium [MELD-Na] score, 14.0) were included. Thirty-four patients had post-TIPS imaging. Median baseline CMA was 68.3 cm2 (interquartile range, 57.7-83.5 cm2). Patients with higher baseline CMA had decreased risks of mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.82; P = .04) and HE (HR: 0.82; P = .009). It improved prediction of mortality over MELD-Na and post-TIPS right atrial pressure alone (confidence interval = 0.729). An increase in CMA (HR: 0.60; P = .043) and mSAT (HR: 0.86; P = .022) or decrease in MAI (HR: 1.50; P = .049) from before to after TIPS was associated with a decreased risk of mortality. An increase in mSAT was associated with an increased risk of HE (HR: 1.11; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: CMA on CT scan 1 month before TIPS placement predicts mortality and HE in patients with cirrhosis. Changes in body composition on CT measured 3 months after TIPS placement independently predict mortality and HE.

Liver Disease Undernutrition Screening Tool Questionnaire Predicts Decompensation and Mortality in Cirrhotic Outpatients with Portal Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Numerous scores are designed to predict outcomes of patients with liver cirrhosis. Our study aimed to evaluate the ability of the Liver Disease Undernutrition Screening Tool (LDUST) in predicting mortality and decompensation in outpatients with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). We hypothesized that LDUST could help identify patients in need of nutritional supplementation and intervention. METHODS: A prospective study of 57 CSPH patients (36.8% female, mean age: 63.5 ± 9.9 years) with a median follow-up of 41 months was conducted. Baseline liver function, nutrition, and sarcopenia were assessed, alongside LDUST. During follow-up, the occurrence of liver decompensation, hospital admission, need for emergency care, and mortality were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 56.1% of patients were Child A, and the most frequent etiology was alcohol (50.9%). Malnutrition risk according to LDUST raised mortality (HR: 25.96 (1.47-456.78)), decompensation (HR 9.78 (2.08-45.89)), and admission (HR 4.86 (1.09-21.61)) risks in multivariate Cox analysis. Combining LDUST with Child and MELD scores improved their decompensation prediction (0.936 vs. 0.811 and 0.866 vs. 0.700). CONCLUSIONS: The LDUST has a solid ability to predict complications in cirrhosis outpatients with CSPH, and its integration with Child and MELD models enhances their predictive power. LDUST implementation could identify individuals necessitating early nutritional support.

Sugar-Sweetened and Artificially Sweetened Beverages and Risk of Liver Cancer and Chronic Liver Disease Mortality.

Importance: Approximately 65% of adults in the US consume sugar-sweetened beverages daily. Objective: To study the associations between intake of sugar-sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and incidence of liver cancer and chronic liver disease mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prospective cohort with 98 786 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative from 1993 to 1998 at 40 clinical centers in the US and were followed up to March 1, 2020. Exposures: Sugar-sweetened beverage intake was assessed based on a food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline and defined as the sum of regular soft drinks and fruit drinks (not including fruit juice); artificially sweetened beverage intake was measured at 3-year follow-up. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were (1) liver cancer incidence, and (2) mortality due to chronic liver disease, defined as death from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, alcoholic liver diseases, and chronic hepatitis. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for liver cancer incidence and for chronic liver disease mortality, adjusting for potential confounders including demographics and lifestyle factors. Results: During a median follow-up of 20.9 years, 207 women developed liver cancer and 148 died from chronic liver disease. At baseline, 6.8% of women consumed 1 or more sugar-sweetened beverage servings per day, and 13.1% consumed 1 or more artificially sweetened beverage servings per day at 3-year follow-up. Compared with intake of 3 or fewer servings of sugar-sweetened beverages per month, those who consumed 1 or more servings per day had a significantly higher risk of liver cancer (18.0 vs 10.3 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend = .02]; adjusted HR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.16-2.96]; P = .01) and chronic liver disease mortality (17.7 vs 7.1 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend <.001]; adjusted HR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.03-2.75]; P = .04). Compared with intake of 3 or fewer artificially sweetened beverages per month, individuals who consumed 1 or more artificially sweetened beverages per day did not have significantly increased incidence of liver cancer (11.8 vs 10.2 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend = .70]; adjusted HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 0.70-1.94]; P = .55) or chronic liver disease mortality (7.1 vs 5.3 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend = .32]; adjusted HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.49-1.84]; P = .88). Conclusions and Relevance: In postmenopausal women, compared with consuming 3 or fewer servings of sugar-sweetened beverages per month, those who consumed 1 or more sugar-sweetened beverages per day had a higher incidence of liver cancer and death from chronic liver disease. Future studies should confirm these findings and identify the biological pathways of these associations.

Prediction of long-term survival among patients with cirrhosis using time-varying models.

BACKGROUND: Risk prediction among patients with cirrhosis has historically focused on short-term (ie, 90 days) mortality among patients waitlisted for a transplant. Although several models have been developed to predict intermediate and longer term survivals, they have important limitations, namely, including only baseline laboratory and clinical variables to predict survival over a time horizon of years. METHODS: We developed prediction models using time-varying laboratory and clinical data among patients with cirrhosis in the OneFlorida Clinical Research Consortium. We fit extended Cox models and assessed model discrimination and calibration in complete-case analysis and imputation of missing laboratory data. RESULTS: Among 15,277 patients, 9922 (64.9%) were included in the complete-case analysis. Final models included demographic (age and sex), time-updating laboratory (albumin, alanine transaminase, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, platelet, and sodium), and time-updating clinical (ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and bleeding esophageal varices) variables. Model discrimination was excellent in the complete-case analysis [AUC and concordance-index (C-index) > 0.85] at 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year time points. Model performance was unchanged with the exclusion of race and ethnicity as model predictors. Model discrimination was excellent (C-index >0.8) when imputation was used for patients with 1 or 2 missing laboratory variables. DISCUSSION: Using data from a statewide sample of patients with cirrhosis, we developed and internally validated a time-updating model to predict survival with excellent discrimination. Based on its measures of discrimination (AUC and c-index), this model matched or exceeded the performance of other published risk models depending on the time horizon. If externally validated, this risk score could improve the care of patients with cirrhosis by improving counseling on intermediate and longer term outcomes to guide clinical decision-making and advanced care planning.

MELD-GRAIL-Na Is a Better Predictor of Mortality Than MELD in Korean Patients with Cirrhosis.

Background and Objectives: The Child-Pugh (CP) score and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) are classical systems for predicting mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). The MELD-GFR assessment in liver disease-sodium (MELD-GRAIL-Na) was designed to better reflect renal function and, therefore, provide better mortality predictions. This study aimed to compare the prediction accuracy of MELD-GRAIL-Na compared to CP and MELD in predicting short-term (1- and 3-month) mortality in Korean patients. Materials and Methods: Medical records of patients with LC admitted to the Konkuk University Hospital from 2015 to 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. Predictive values of the CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na for 1-month and 3-month mortality were calculated using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and were compared using DeLong's test. Results: In total, 1249 patients were enrolled; 102 died within 1 month, and 146 within 3 months. AUROCs of CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na were 0.831, 0.847, and 0.857 for 1-month mortality and 0.837, 0.827, and 0.835 for 3-month mortality, respectively, indicating no statistical significance. For patients with CP classes B and C, AUROCs of CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na were 0.782, 0.809, and 0.825 for 1-month mortality and 0.775, 0.769, and 0.786 for 3-month mortality, respectively. There was a significant difference between CP and MELD-GRAIL-Na in predicting 1-month mortality (p = 0.0428) and between MELD and MELD-GRAIL-Na in predicting 1-month (p = 0.0493) and 3-month mortality (p = 0.0225). Conclusions: Compared to CP and MELD, MELD-GRAIL-Na was found to be a better and more useful system for evaluating short-term (1- and 3-month) mortality in Korean patients with cirrhosis, especially those with advanced cirrhosis (CP class B and C).