Temporal shifts in 24 notifiable infectious diseases in China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, along with the implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs), have markedly reshaped infectious disease transmission dynamics. We analysed the impact of PHSMs on 24 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) in the Chinese mainland, using time series models to forecast transmission trends without PHSMs or pandemic. Our findings revealed distinct seasonal patterns in NID incidence, with respiratory diseases showing the greatest response to PHSMs, while bloodborne and sexually transmitted diseases responded more moderately. 8 NIDs were identified as susceptible to PHSMs, including hand, foot, and mouth disease, dengue fever, rubella, scarlet fever, pertussis, mumps, malaria, and Japanese encephalitis. The termination of PHSMs did not cause NIDs resurgence immediately, except for pertussis, which experienced its highest peak in December 2023 since January 2008. Our findings highlight the varied impact of PHSMs on different NIDs and the importance of sustainable, long-term strategies, like vaccine development.

Age at death during the Covid-19 lockdown in French metropolitan regions: a non parametric quantile regression approach.

BACKGROUND: Lockdowns have been implemented to limit the number of hospitalisations and deaths during the first wave of 2019 coronavirus disease. These measures may have affected differently death characteristics, such age and sex. France was one of the hardest hit countries in Europe with a decreasing east-west gradient in excess mortality. This study aimed at describing the evolution of age at death quantiles during the lockdown in spring 2020 (17 March-11 May 2020) in the French metropolitan regions focusing on 3 representatives of the epidemic variations in the country: Bretagne, Ile-de-France (IDF) and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (BFC). METHODS: Data were extracted from the French public mortality database from 1 January 2011 to 31 August 2020. The age distribution of mortality observed during the lockdown period (based on each decile, plus quantiles 1, 5, 95 and 99) was compared with the expected one using Bayesian non-parametric quantile regression. RESULTS: During the lockdown, 5457, 5917 and 22 346 deaths were reported in Bretagne, BFC and IDF, respectively. An excess mortality from + 3% in Bretagne to + 102% in IDF was observed during lockdown compared to the 3 previous years. Lockdown led to an important increase in the first quantiles of age at death, irrespective of the region, while the increase was more gradual for older age groups. It corresponded to fewer young people, mainly males, dying during the lockdown, with an increase in the age at death in the first quantile of about 7 years across regions. In females, a less significant shift in the first quantiles and a greater heterogeneity between regions were shown. A greater shift was observed in eastern region and IDF, which may also represent excess mortality among the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: This study focused on the innovative outcome of the age distribution at death. It shows the first quantiles of age at death increased differentially according to sex during the lockdown period, overall shift seems to depend on prior epidemic intensity before lockdown and complements studies on excess mortality during lockdowns.

Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric hospital admissions in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis.

Background: The use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), such as lockdowns, social distancing and school closures, against the COVID-19 epidemic is debated, particularly for the possible negative effects on vulnerable populations, including children and adolescents. This study therefore aimed to quantify the impact of NPIs on the trend of pediatric hospitalizations during 2 years of pandemic compared to the previous 3 years, also considering two pandemic phases according to the type of adopted NPIs. Methods: This is a multicenter, quasi-experimental before-after study conducted in 12 hospitals of the Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy, with NPI implementation as the intervention event. The 3 years preceding the beginning of NPI implementation (in March 2020) constituted the pre-pandemic phase. The subsequent 2 years were further subdivided into a school closure phase (up to September 2020) and a subsequent mitigation measures phase with less stringent restrictions. School closure was chosen as delimitation as it particularly concerns young people. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression analysis was applied to calculate Hospitalization Rate Ratios (HRR) on the diagnostic categories exhibiting the greatest variation. ITS allows the estimation of changes attributable to an intervention, both in terms of immediate (level change) and sustained (slope change) effects, while accounting for pre-intervention secular trends. Results: Overall, in the 60 months of the study there were 84,368 cases. Compared to the pre-pandemic years, statistically significant 35 and 19% decreases in hospitalizations were observed during school closure and in the following mitigation measures phase, respectively. The greatest reduction was recorded for "Respiratory Diseases," whereas the "Mental Disorders" category exhibited a significant increase during mitigation measures. ITS analysis confirms a high reduction of level change during school closure for Respiratory Diseases (HRR 0.19, 95%CI 0.08-0.47) and a similar but smaller significant reduction when mitigation measures were enacted. Level change for Mental Disorders significantly decreased during school closure (HRR 0.50, 95%CI 0.30-0.82) but increased during mitigation measures by 28% (HRR 1.28, 95%CI 0.98-1.69). Conclusion: Our findings provide information on the impact of COVID-19 NPIs which may inform public health policies in future health crises, plan effective control and preventative interventions and target resources where needed.

Changes in admission rates to an Aotearoa New Zealand hospital general medical service during COVID-19 lockdowns.

AIM: To better understand the reasons for reduced hospital admissions to a hospital general medicine service during COVID-19 lockdowns. METHODS: A statistical model for admission rates to the General Medicine Service at Wellington Hospital, Aotearoa New Zealand, since 2015 was constructed. This model was used to estimate changes in admission rates for transmissible and non-transmissible diagnoses during and following COVID-19 lockdowns for total admissions and various sub-groups. RESULTS: For the 2020 lockdown (n=734 admissions), the overall rate ratio of admissions was 0.71 compared to the pre-lockdown rate. Non-transmissible diagnoses, which constitute 87% of admissions, had an admission rate ratio of 0.77. Transmissible diagnoses, constituting 13% of admissions, had an admission rate ratio of 0.44. Reductions in admissions did not exacerbate existing ethnic disparities in access to health services. The lag in recovery of admission rates was more pronounced for transmissible than non-transmissible diagnoses. The 2021 lockdown (n=105 admissions) followed this pattern, but was of shorter duration with small numbers, and therefore measures were frequently not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The biggest relative reduction in hospital admission was due to a reduction in transmissible illness admissions, likely due to COVID-related public health measures. However, the biggest reduction in absolute terms was in non-transmissible illnesses, where hospital avoidance may be associated with increased morbidity or mortality.

Psychosocial risk profiles to address future health emergencies: a country study during the COVID-19 lockdown period in Colombia.

Introduction: The different strategies used worldwide to curb the COVID-19 pandemic between 2020 and 2021 had a negative psychosocial impact, which was disproportionately higher for socially and economically vulnerable groups. This article seeks to identify the psychosocial impact of the confinement period during the COVID-19 pandemic for the Colombian population by identifying profiles that predict the levels of different mental health indicators (feelings of fear, positive emotions or feelings during free time, and work impact) and based on them, characterize the risk factors and protection that allows us to propose guidelines for prevention or recovery from future health emergencies. Methods: This is an observational, cross-sectional, retrospective ex post facto study. Multistage cluster probabilistic sampling and binary logistic regression analysis were used to predict extreme levels of various mental health indicators based on psychosocial indicators of the COVID-19 confinement period and to identify risk and protection factors. Results: A relationship was established between the combination of some of the different psychosocial factors evaluated (this combination being the predictive profile identified) with each of the three main variables: feeling of fear (n = 8,247; R = 0.32; p = 0.00; Poverall = 62.4%; 𝜔overall = 0.25; 1-𝛽overall = 1.00), positive emotions or feelings during free time (n = 6,853; R = 0.25; p = 0.00; Poverall = 59.1%; 𝜔overall = 0.18; 1-𝛽overall = 1.00) and labour impact (n = 4,573; R = 0.47; p = 0.63; Poverall = 70.4%; 𝜔overall = 0.41; 1-𝛽overall = 1.00), with social vulnerability determined by sociodemographic factors that were common in all profiles (sex, age, ethnicity and socioeconomic level) and conditions associated with job insecurity (unemployed, loss of health insurance and significant changes to job's requirements) and place of residence (city). Conclusion: For future health emergencies, it is necessary to (i) mitigate the socio-employment impact from emergency containment measures in a scaled and differentiated manner at the local level, (ii) propose prevention and recovery actions through psychosocial and mental health care accessible to the entire population, especially vulnerable groups, (iii) Design and implement work, educational and recreational adaptation programs that can be integrated into confinement processes.

Perceptions of risk and coping strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic among women and older adults.

The world's health, economic, and social systems have been adversely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. With lockdown measures being a common response strategy in most countries, many individuals were faced with financial and mental health challenges. The current study explored the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the psychological well-being, perception of risk factors and coping strategies of two vulnerable groups in Malaysia, namely women and older adults from low-income households (USD592). A purposive sample of 30 women and 30 older adults was interviewed via telephone during Malaysia's Movement Control Order (MCO) regarding the challenges they faced throughout the pandemic. Thematic analysis was subsequently conducted to identify key themes. The themes identified from the thematic analysis indicated a degree of overlap between both groups. For women, seven themes emerged: 1) Psychological challenges due to COVID-19 pandemic, 2) Family violence, 3) Finance and employment related stress and anxiety, 4) Women's inequality and prejudice, 5) Coping strategies, 6) Professional support, and 7) Women's empowerment. Similarly, there were six themes for the older adults: 1) Adverse emotional experiences from COVID-19, 2) Threats to health security, 3) Loss of social connections, 4) Government aid to improve older adults' psychological well-being, 5) Psychological support from family members and pets, and 6) Self-reliance, religion, and spirituality. The findings provide valuable information on the specific burdens faced by these groups, and support psychological interventions and mitigations that would be appropriate to improve well-being during the recovery phase.

A longitudinal cohort study on the use of health and care services by older adults living at home with/without dementia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: the HUNT study.

BACKGROUND: Older adults and people with dementia were anticipated to be particularly unable to use health and care services during the lockdown period following the COVID-19 pandemic. To better prepare for future pandemics, we aimed to investigate whether the use of health and care services changed during the pandemic and whether those at older ages and/or dementia experienced a higher degree of change than that observed by their counterparts. METHODS: Data from the Norwegian Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT4 70 + , 2017-2019) were linked to two national health registries that have individual-level data on the use of primary and specialist health and care services. A multilevel mixed-effects linear regression model was used to calculate changes in the use of services from 18 months before the lockdown, (12 March 2020) to 18 months after the lockdown. RESULTS: The study sample included 10,607 participants, 54% were women and 11% had dementia. The mean age was 76 years (SD: 5.7, range: 68-102 years). A decrease in primary health and care service use, except for contact with general practitioners (GPs), was observed during the lockdown period for people with dementia (p < 0.001) and those aged ≥ 80 years without dementia (p = 0.006), compared to the 6-month period before the lockdown. The use of specialist health services decreased during the lockdown period for all groups (p ≤ 0.011), except for those aged < 80 years with dementia. Service use reached levels comparable to pre-pandemic data within one year after the lockdown. CONCLUSION: Older adults experienced an immediate reduction in the use of health and care services, other than GP contacts, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within primary care services, people with dementia demonstrated a more pronounced reduction than that observed in people without dementia; otherwise, the variations related to age and dementia status were small. Both groups returned to services levels similar to those during the pre-pandemic period within one year after the lockdown. The increase in GP contacts may indicate a need to reallocate resources to primary health services during future pandemics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, with the identification number NCT04792086.

Orthodontists' use of remote monitoring platforms pre-, amid, and post-COVID-19: a survey study.

BACKGROUND: Did the COVID-19 pandemic affect orthodontists' use of remote monitoring platforms? The goal of this research was to examine orthodontists' experiences implementing remote monitoring platforms before, during, and after the initial COVID-19 lockdown. METHODS: In this descriptive cross-sectional survey study, an electronic, anonymous questionnaire consisting of a series of 31 short-answer and multiple-choice questions was administered to an international sampling of practicing orthodontists. The target population in the study included currently practicing orthodontists who were graduates of an accredited orthodontic residency program. Participants were recruited in 2021 through collaboration with the American Association of Orthodontists (AAO) Partners in Research Program and the Harvard School of Dental Medicine Orthodontic Alumni Association. Descriptive analysis was conducted, reporting frequency (N and %) distributions for each question. The questionnaire aimed to describe whether orthodontists incorporated remote monitoring platforms into their practices, their experiences doing so, and if the COVID-19 pandemic influenced their use of these resources. RESULTS: Orthodontists' use of remote monitoring platforms was negligible prior to the pandemic; however, a quarter of surveyed orthodontists began using a remote monitoring platform during COVID-19 and nearly all respondents plan to continue using remote monitoring for the foreseeable future. Approximately half of orthodontists believe most patients' treatment progress can be monitored to the standard of care between in-person orthodontic appointments using remote monitoring platforms. Half of the orthodontists who do not currently use a remote monitoring platform in their practice are interested in learning more about how to implement one. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic led to an increase in the interest and adoption of remote monitoring platforms in orthodontic practices. Most orthodontists had not incorporated remote monitoring platforms into their practices prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this study revealed that a subset of orthodontists utilized the pandemic as motivation to incorporate remote monitoring into their practices and an additional group of orthodontists were interested in incorporating one in the future. Remote monitoring platforms garnered interest and importance with the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic and may only have an increasing role in the field in years to come.

A study of the attenuation stage of a global infectious disease.

Introduction: Differences in control measures and response speeds between regions may be responsible for the differences in the number of infections of global infectious diseases. Therefore, this article aims to examine the decay stage of global infectious diseases. We demonstrate our method by considering the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. Methods: We introduce the concept of the attenuation rate into the varying coefficient SEIR model to measure the effect of different cities on epidemic control, and make inferences through the integrated adjusted Kalman filter algorithm. Results: We applied the varying coefficient SEIR model to 136 cities in China where the total number of confirmed cases exceeded 20 after the implementation of control measures and analyzed the relationship between the estimated attenuation rate and local factors. Subsequent analysis and inference results show that the attenuation rate is significantly related to the local annual GDP and the longitude and latitude of a city or a region. We also apply the varying coefficient SEIR model to other regions outside China. We find that the fitting curve of the average daily number of new confirmed cases simulated by the variable coefficient SEIR model is consistent with the real data. Discussion: The results show that the cities with better economic development are able to control the epidemic more effectively to a certain extent. On the other hand, geographical location also affected the effectiveness of regional epidemic control. In addition, through the results of attenuation rate analysis, we conclude that China and South Korea have achieved good results in controlling the epidemic in 2020.

Infectious Disease Preparedness for Homeless Populations: Recommendations from a Community-Academic Partnership.

BACKGROUND: People experiencing homelessness are at increased risk of infectious disease transmission due to congregate living conditions, barriers to healthcare, and excess burden of underlying chronic disease. OBJECTIVES: We are a multisectoral community-academic partnership working to address the intersecting crises of homelessness and health disparities in Tippecanoe County, Indiana. We offer key recommendations for infectious disease preparedness and risk mitigation for homeless populations based on our ongoing community-based participatory research and lessons learned through COVID-19 response and Monkeypox preparations. LESSONS LEARNED: Infectious disease preparedness and response in homeless populations requires strong local partnerships; ongoing training and support for staff and volunteers of homeless shelters and service agencies; tailored outreach, education, and communication with people experiencing homelessness; and standardized processes for creating, disseminating, enforcing, and evaluating public health policies in homeless shelters. Consistency and open communication are key to a successful community-academic partnership. CONCLUSIONS: Community-academic partnerships are critical to effective infectious disease preparedness in homeless populations. The lessons learned from community-based participatory research with homeless communities and multisectoral partners on the frontline can improve future outbreak and pandemic response for people experiencing homelessness and other vulnerable communities in the United States.

Sociocultural adjustment and social support as predictors for international medical sciences students' anxiety during COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of anxiety is high among international medical sciences students and it increased even more during the COVID-19 pandemic due to different restrictions and social isolation. Successful sociocultural adjustment and social support could be important factors in overcoming those challenges, however, there is a lack of studies which would investigate the role of those factors among inter- national medical students. This study aimed to assess the role of sociocultural adjustment and social support as predictors for international medical students' anxiety during COVID-19. METHODS: Two measurements were conducted via self-reported questionnaires which consisted of three scales - SCAS, MSPSS and GAD-7. In total, 82 international medical students participated in both measurements in this longitudinal study. RESULTS: The findings indicated that 37% of international students had symptoms of moderate or severe anxiety during their first year of studies at university. In the second year, during the COVID-19 pandemic and an official lockdown, 35% of international students had symptoms of moderate or severe anxiety. In addition, this study showed that gender and sociocultural adjustment did not play a role as predictors of students' anxiety during the second year of studies. However, this study revealed that social support provided by family during the first year of studies, as well as having friends or family members who had been ill with COVID-19 predicted higher levels of anxiety at second measurement, while sociocultural adjustment was an even stronger predictor of anxiety in the second year of studies of international medical students. CONCLUSIONS: This knowledge can help to better understand how international medical students felt during the COVID-19 pandemic and what role the above- mentioned factors played in the students' anxiety. As the anxiety level is quite high among international medical students, universities and mental health service providers should take it into consideration and help them to overcome those challenges.

Effects of COVID-19 on coastal and marine environments: Aggravated microplastic pollution, improved air quality, and future perspective.

The COVID-19 pandemic during 2020-2023 has wrought adverse impacts on coastal and marine environments. This study conducts a comprehensive review of the collateral effects of COVID-19 on these ecosystems through literature review and bibliometric analysis. According to the output and citation analysis of these publications, researchers from the coastal countries in Asia, Europe, and America payed more attentions to this environmental issue than other continents. Specifically, India, China, and USA were the top three countries in the publications, with the proportion of 19.55%, 18.99%, and 12.01%, respectively. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly aggravated the plastic and microplastic pollution in coastal and marine environments by explosive production and unproper management of personal protective equipment (PPE). During the pandemic, the estimated mismanaged PPE waste ranged from 16.50 t/yr in Sweden to 250,371.39 t/yr in Indonesia. In addition, the PPE density ranged from 1.13 × 10-5 item/m2 to 2.79 item/m2 in the coastal regions worldwide, showing significant geographical variations. Besides, the emerging contaminants released from PPE into the coastal and marine environments cannot be neglected. The positive influence was that the COVID-19 lockdown worldwide reduced the release of air pollutants (e.g., fine particulate matter, NO2, CO, and SO2) and improved the air quality. The study also analyzed the relationships between sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the publications and revealed the dynamic changes of SDGs in different periods the COVID-19 pandemic. In conclusion, the air was cleaner due to the lockdown, but the coastal and marine contamination of plastic, microplastic, and emerging contaminants got worse during the COVID-19 pandemic. Last but not least, the study proposed four strategies to deal with the coastal and marine pollution caused by COVID-19, which were regular marine monitoring, performance of risk assessment, effective regulation of plastic wastes, and close international cooperation.

Non-fatal suicide behaviours across phases in the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based study in a Catalan cohort.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has been extensively discussed in the context of its effect on mental health. Although global suicide rates have remained stable during the pandemic, the specific effect on non-fatal suicide behaviours during and after the pandemic remains underexplored. This study aims to investigate patterns of non-fatal suicide behaviours before, during, and after the pandemic. METHODS: In this cohort study, we used data from all hospitals in Catalonia, Spain, collected through the Catalan Suicide Risk Code, which is a specifically designed suicide attempt surveillance protocol, involving a face-to-face, in-depth psychiatric evaluation, after a Catalan resident presents any suicide risk behaviour in any public health-care setting. This evaluation centralises data from suicide registries across the territory. We included non-fatal suicide behaviours, meaning suicidal ideation or attempts that did not result in death, and excluded self-harm behaviours not judged to be linked with suicidal ideation. We considered three periods: the pre-confinement period (Jan 1, 2018, to the enforcement of the lockdown in Spain on March 14, 2020); the confinement period (March 14, 2020, to the end of lockdown on June 21, 2020); and the post-confinement period (June 21, 2020, to Dec 31, 2022). We used Bayesian structural time series models to assess the effect of pandemic phases on non-fatal suicide behaviours, and we ran stratified analyses by sex and age to identify distinct patterns among demographic cohorts. FINDINGS: We obtained 26 482 records from Jan 1, 2018, to Dec 31, 2022. The mean age was 37·94 years (SD 18·07), and the sample included 17 584 (66·4%) women and 8898 (33·6%) men. Data on ethnicity were not collected. Temporal trends showed a mild increase in non-fatal suicide behaviours from Jan 1, 2018, to March 13, 2020; a reduction during the confinement period; and a subsequent rise after confinement. Bayesian models suggested a significant causal effect of lockdown easing, resulting in a 50·77% increase in non-fatal suicide behaviours (95% credible interval [CrI] 26·62-76·58; p<0·0001). Stratified analyses indicated that the easing of lockdown resulted in a significant increase in non-fatal suicide behaviours among women (25·92%; 6·71-44·72; p=0·011) and among individuals aged 18 years and younger (72·75%; 38·81-108·11; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: This study provides a comprehensive examination of non-fatal suicide behaviours in Catalonia, Spain, emphasising the dynamics of different COVID-19 pandemic phases. The initial reduction during strict lockdown aligns with Joiner's Interpersonal Theory of Suicide, whereas the post-confinement rise reflects complex factors, including social isolation and economic challenges. Sex-specific and age-specific analyses underscore distinct vulnerabilities, emphasising the need for targeted preventive strategies. FUNDING: Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental annual budget of G21, Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca of the Generalitat de Catalunya. TRANSLATIONS: For the Catalan and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Training strategies of 10,074 athletes from 121 countries based on human development index in early COVID-19 lockdown.

The aim of this study was to investigate relationships between changes in training practices and human development index (HDI) levels, and identify strategies employed by athletes who consistently maintained their training quantity during the first 100 days of the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 10,074 athletes (5290 amateur and 4787 professional athletes from 121 countries) completed an online survey between 17 May to 5 July 2020. We explored their training practices, including specific questions on training frequency, duration and quantity before and during lockdown (March-June 2020), stratified according to the human development index (HDI): low-medium, high, or very high HDI. During the COVID-19 lockdown, athletes in low-medium HDI countries focused on innovative training. Nevertheless, women and amateur athletes experienced a substantial reduction in training activity. Performance-driven athletes and athletes from higher HDI indexed countries, were likely to have more opportunities to diversify training activities during lockdowns, facilitated by the flexibility to perform training away from home. Factors such as lockdown rules, socioeconomic environment, and training education limited training diversification and approaches, particularly in low-medium and high HDI countries. Athletes (amateurs and professionals) who maintained the quantity of training during lockdown appeared to prioritize basic cardiovascular and strength training, irrespective of HDI level. Modifying training and fitness programs may help mitigate the decrease in training activities during lockdowns. Customized training prescriptions based on gender, performance, and HDI level will assist individuals to effectively perform and maintain training activities during lockdowns, or other challenging (lockdown-like) situations.

Relationship Between Severity and Length of Exposure to COVID-19 Parameters and Resulting Government Responses and the Suicide Crisis Syndrome (SCS).

OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a globally devastating psychosocial impact. A detailed understanding of the mental health implications of this worldwide crisis is critical for successful mitigation of and preparation for future pandemics. Using a large international sample, we investigated in the present study the relationship between multiple COVID-19 parameters (both disease characteristics and government responses) and the incidence of the suicide crisis syndrome (SCS), an acute negative affect state associated with near-term suicidal behavior. METHODS: Data were collected from 5528 adults across 10 different countries in an anonymous web-based survey between June 2020 and January 2021. RESULTS: Individuals scoring above the SCS cut-off lived in countries with higher peak daily cases and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic. Additionally, the longer participants had been exposed to markers of pandemic severity (eg, lockdowns), the more likely they were to screen positive for the SCS. Findings reflected both country-to-country comparisons and individual variation within the pooled sample. CONCLUSION: Both the pandemic itself and the government interventions utilized to contain the spread appear to be associated with suicide risk. Public policy should include efforts to mitigate the mental health impact of current and future global disasters.

Machine learning insights into PM2.5 changes during COVID-19 lockdown: LSTM and RF analysis in Mashhad.

This study seeks to investigate the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures on air quality in the city of Mashhad employing two strategies. We initiated our research using basic statistical methods such as paired sample t-tests to compare hourly PM2.5 data in two scenarios: before and during quarantine, and pre- and post-lockdown. This initial analysis provided a broad understanding of potential changes in air quality. Notably, a low reduction of 2.40% in PM2.5 was recorded when compared to air quality prior to the lockdown period. This finding highlights the wide range of factors that impact the levels of particulate matter in urban settings, with the transportation sector often being widely recognized as one of the principal causes of this issue. Nevertheless, throughout the period after the quarantine, a remarkable decrease in air quality was observed characterized by distinct seasonal patterns, in contrast to previous years. This finding demonstrates a significant correlation between changes in human mobility patterns and their influence on the air quality of urban areas. It also emphasizes the need to use air pollution modeling as a fundamental tool to evaluate and understand these linkages to support long-term plans for reducing air pollution. To obtain a more quantitative understanding, we then employed cutting-edge machine learning methods, such as random forest and long short-term memory algorithms, to accurately determine the effect of the lockdown on PM2.5 levels. Our models' results demonstrated remarkable efficacy in assessing the pollutant concentration in Mashhad during lockdown measures. The test set yielded an R-squared value of 0.82 for the long short-term memory network model, whereas the random forest model showed a calculated cross-validation R-squared of 0.78. The required computational cost for training the LSTM and the RF models across all data was 25 min and 3 s, respectively. In summary, through the integration of statistical methods and machine learning, this research attempts to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of human interventions on air quality dynamics.

The evolution of household forgone essential care and its determinants during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: A longitudinal analysis.

Apart from the morbidity and mortality, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has increased the predisposition of households in Nigeria to forgone care, thereby increasing their vulnerability to adverse health consequences. Since there is no previous study in Nigeria on the evolution of pandemic-related forgone care and its drivers, our study assess the evolution of the problem using descriptive and nationally representative panel data analyses. We found about a 30% prevalence of forgone care during the lockdown, which declined progressively afterwards, dropping by 69.50 percentage points between April 2020 and April 2022. This decline produced a surge in households needing care from about 35.00% in the early pandemic to greater than 50%, beginning in early 2021. The forgone care was primarily due to financial hindrances, movement restrictions, and supply-side disruptions. Household socioeconomic factors such as income loss had 2.74 [95%CI: 1.45-5.17] times higher odds of forgone care, job loss, food insecurity, and poverty were 87% (OR: 1.87 [95%CI: 1.25-2.79]), 60% (OR: 1.60 [95%CI: 1.12-2.31]) and 76% (OR: 1.76 [95%CI: 1.12-2.75]) more likely to predispose households to forgone care, respectively. Also, geographical location, such as the South-South zone, induced 1.98 [95%CI: 1.09-3.58] times higher odds of forgone care than North-Central. A married female household head increased the odds by 6.07 [95%CI: 1.72-21.47] times compared with an unmarried female head. However, having a married household head, social assistance, and North-East or North-West zone compared with North-Central increased the chance of accessing care by 69% (OR 0.31 [95%CI: 0.16-0.59]), 59%,(OR 0.41 [95%CI: 0.21-0.77]), 72% (OR 0.28 [95%CI: 0.15-0.53]) and 64% (OR 0.36 [95%CI: 0.20-0.65]), respectively. Non-communicable diseases, disability, old age, large household size and rural-urban location did not affect the forgone care. Our study highlights the need to strengthen Nigeria's health system, create policies to promote healthcare accessibility and prepare the country for future pandemic challenges.

Health workforce incentives and dis-incentives during the COVID-19 pandemic: experiences from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic presented a myriad of challenges for the health workforce around the world due to its escalating demand on service delivery. A motivated health workforce is critical to effectual emergency response and in some settings, incentivizing health workers motivates them and ensures continuity in the provision of health services. We describe health workforce experiences with incentives and dis-incentives during the COVID-19 response in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Senegal, Nigeria, and Uganda. METHODS: This is a multi-country qualitative research study involving four African countries namely: DRC, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda which assessed the workplace incentives instituted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Key informant interviews (n = 60) were conducted with staff at ministries of health, policy makers and health workers. Interviews were virtual using the telephone or Zoom. They were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed thematically. Themes were identified and quotes were used to support findings. RESULTS: Health worker incentives included (i) financial rewards in the form of allowances and salary increments. These motivated health workers, sustaining the health system and the health workers' efforts during the COVID-19 response across the four countries. (ii) Non-financial incentives related to COVID-19 management such as provision of medicines/supplies, on the job trainings, medical care for health workers, social welfare including meals, transportation and housing, recognition, health insurance, psychosocial support, and supervision. Improvised determination and distribution of both financial and non-financial incentives were common across the countries. Dis-incentives included the lack of personal protective equipment, lack of transportation to health facilities during lockdown, long working hours, harassment by security forces and perceived unfairness in access to and inadequacy of financial incentives. CONCLUSION: Although important for worker motivation, financial and non-financial incentives generated some dis-incentives because of the perceived unfairness in their provision. Financial and non-financial incentives deployed during health emergencies should preferably be pre-determined, equitably and transparently provided because when arbitrarily applied, these same financial and non-financial incentives can potentially become dis-incentives. Moreover, financial incentives are useful only as far as they are administered together with non-financial incentives such as supportive and well-resourced work environments. The potential negative impacts of interventions such as service delivery re-organization and lockdown within already weakened systems need to be anticipated and due precautions exercised to reduce dis-incentives during emergencies.

LDA2Net Digging under the surface of COVID-19 scientific literature topics via a network-based approach.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific literature related to SARS-COV-2 has been growing dramatically. These literary items encompass a varied set of topics, ranging from vaccination to protective equipment efficacy as well as lockdown policy evaluations. As a result, the development of automatic methods that allow an in-depth exploration of this growing literature has become a relevant issue, both to identify the topical trends of COVID-related research and to zoom-in on its sub-themes. This work proposes a novel methodology, called LDA2Net, which combines topic modelling and network analysis, to investigate topics under their surface. More specifically, LDA2Net exploits the frequencies of consecutive words pairs (i.e. bigram) to build those network structures underlying the hidden topics extracted from large volumes of text by Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Results are promising and suggest that the topic model efficacy is magnified by the network-based representation. In particular, such enrichment is noticeable when it comes to displaying and exploring the topics at different levels of granularity.